colin

in hindsight it was. we paid the guy, and he blew this past season. he was good his first year, but now we have one single starting outside corner, and we had douglas and elam let us down hard and lose us the afc chip game, so ya it was a bad trade. we coulda dumped a 3 into a cb last year, or packaged and traded up and got thomas jr or something. that mighta got us to the bowl. im not even fading the last two in season trades, i thought at the time they had a good enough shot to get us over the hump. are you douglas' agent, cousin?

a 1 tech at 30 is similar to the bishop pick in the 2nd (i was a big fan of his coming out of college, so it shows my drafting chops!). If it's a year one starter who is or will be better than the rest of the roster at his position, then it's a really good pick. if it's a project, or a non starter (like carter has been, total washout so far), or a guy who got hurt and stymied his growth year one (like bishop or coleman) then you missed a chance at a real plus player at a more important positions. i think our first four selections will be DT, CB, WR, with a slim shot at edge rusher. i could see 2 DTs and 2 CBs, but no less than one of each. if a guy is pat williams, then im happy to spend the 30 or trade up in the 1st for him, but those don't come along too often.

there is a 0% chance we spend our first 5 picks exactly where they are right now. no shot! makes draft day a bit more fun, at the least.

the advanced stats and the tape shows that over the last say 2 years (the hamlin season was honestly a bit different, von went down, trey white came back but should not have had an nfl jersey on, and dorsey was playing dr demento on O) that our actual problem (which was news to me tbh) on D was how we defended an accurate passer. we continued to be tops of the tops at stopping deep passes, and kinda let teams run on light boxes (last season the only game we got really trucked on was the 2nd game vs miami where we sold out vs the pass and dared them to run on us. the baltimore game we got BTFO on big plays and horrible offensive production as much as anything). the rams game, the second half of the detroit game, and the kc playoff game really nailed this. we used so much smoke and mirrors and extreme offensive efficiency to pressure teams into turnovers (i now admit they are not entirely random, there is a method to that madness) to mask how our D just did zilch to make the day long for an accurate passing team. outside of staffy, joe cool is the most accurate passer in the nfl imo, and his garbage line isn't enough for us because our scheme and lack of talent has lead to either big time disruption up front or easy mode stuff on the back end, rather than a well coordinated d where the rush impacts the throw in synergy with the coverage (ironically, that is exactly what mcd's d in carolina did at an elite level). im just hoping the changes in d coaching and the addition of potential xfactor rushers (hoyt and bosa) mixes in w who we have enough to change that this season, but trotting out raw coordinators doesn't give me that much confidence that we will have a big change -- but a change must happen one way or another.

im saying we managed to get ourselves into a situation where our two worst position groups (maybe we have to stretch from cb to secondary, since we have TJ and benford at cb) secondary and wr not only had a lack of top end talent, but also the effective depth was pure cheeks. for example, i think our 3rd lb, williams, is gonna be a bit of a monster. our back ups at RG and C look like they aren't too bad of a fall off from our starters. we have a top 3 or so tackle combo, but when the RT went down vs kc in 2024 reg season, they still blocked their buts off. any one of our RBs can make steady or big plays. it's just goofy to me that we ended up, after spending high picks and trading 3rds mid season the past two seasons, with such a disaster at wr and cb/secondary in the afc chip game. to answer your question, in retrospect the douglas and the cooper trades were bad, but i supported them at the time and if coop stayed healthy maybe it woulda worked out.

the depth and quality of the cb and wr position last season was shocking. two guys who are FAs are getting not a sniff, and they were both starters for us, who we traded 3rd round picks for. and to top that off, the back up behind douglas (who filled in for our actually good cb) was a total write off in elam, and the back up for cooper was hollins who we didn't even bother to talk to and raw injured rookie coleman. lol, sad.

as mentioned in this thread, if they re up one or two IOL, or put a decent (say top 4 rounds) pick into the line, they are stamping their intent of throwing cheap bodies at RB, and putting money/picks into the OL. i think we offer cook a contract, and if he doesn't just take it he's a free agent next season.

we have a top 3 or 4 tackle combo in the nfl, and the best qb in the nfl. our rookie RG is solid, and the C is likely up for a 12+ a year contract. we have some lame contracts to get out of, but this team really is (on offense) built from the ball out. some quality outside wr play and this team legit can threaten to break the nfl scoring record. if cook holds out and doesn't play next season, i think our over the year drop off from that is worth like 1 or 2 points a game. better wr and TE play would be worth more than that. overall, and this is with me being a bit of a hater on our OC, this is likely the most anti fragile offense in the nfl.

a young moulds on this current bills team would break 200 yards and 3TDs in multiple playoff games. the only guy of that era that i would put above him (two guys) at his best and healthy would be TO and moss.

well, it looks like the NFL has decided that it goes 1 QB tied for 2 WR/DE or Edge as the kids say 3 CB 4 LT I'll say an inside outside pass rush guy (jones in KC) is right there w a DE, but the vast majority of them are DEs now, DE is schematically more important that WR for just about every NFL team (ahem, cinci) so to get top stack WR money i think you need to be a bit more rarified than a DE. so like, consistent 10+ sacks and mad pressures puts you way over 25mm and gets you into that 25-35 range, but for WR it's gotta be a pretty monster producer to get there (like a metcalf, higgins is getting quite a bit less than dan hunter in this thread, for example). the one rub in all of this IMO is that aside from RB (used to be MLB, but i think that's changed some because they do different things in the nfl than ncaa now) CB is the most starter ready position as a rookie. benford, white, gilmore, we've drafted lots of CBs who started as rookies and looked flippin good doing so. it's mad rare for a qb, DE, and even a WR or LT to look that good as a rook. IMO, that's the only thing that is keeping CB money from eclipsing WR money. Gs and to a lesser extent Cs have had their pay scale up too, but the real red headed step children and S, TE, and off ball LB. ironic that we (as of the prior two seasons) had so much in those positions (milano, knox, poy, hyde). we've also dumped a lot of draft capital into RB (since allen came in what, 3 or 4 3rds, a 2nd, and a 4th?) but in the past two seasons we have had sick running production so i can't be too mad.

in that video where the philly fan is likely of average height so the camera is angled up to see bosa and he points the finger he looks like some roman centurion from a sword and sandals movie.

given who we signed, taht there are some primo 1 tech in the draft, and our secondary needs i think there is a really really low shot we trade for this guy now. i suppose aj could get cut and they ship in hendrickson, but i just don't think they put that much more into the DL right now, especially since he will want a new contract. i think of we make a splash move, it's for the best CB available, and we still draft at least one more. if we hit on a real 1 tech, and maybe a 3 tech in the draft (to back up oliver) we are adequate in the front 6 w 3 guys who are signed who can play LB, 3 average to potentially all pro DEs in aj, groot, and bosa, and then the other two guys we signed plus those picks. we play w 5 or 6 dbs like 80% of the time. t johnson is getting old and is often banged up, benford has been hurt some, we seem to have filled up the safety room, but we need at least two more corners on the team just to have a roster. that would be the max value add position to me at this point.

the only thing that fixes this, the TE/WR issue, with what we have on the roster (unless palmer or coleman or someone just pulls a moulds and explodes into being a top flight wr out of nowhere) is Kinkaid gets healthy and we just punish everyone for having a single LB on the field, which feeds into (it did very well last season, but it would have to be like olympic level) us just running the ball at will and winning TOP and chewing up the field. an actual bonafide outside threat with consistency on this offense would set NFL passing and scoring records. I suppose we can draft one, but other than that we should be about what we were, which was simply outstanding except vs houston and baltimore. an all pro CB, hits on DL draft picks, and the guys we signed this offseason being above contract value would mean the d is top 5 again and we host the afc chip game.

out of all of those categories, i'd say the all pro column is the most representative. if we go by that then i think it's about right. the up side is allen and lately our Oline are so very good enough we can beat all the teams some of the time and most of the teams most of the time. i'd put that at about 70# and 30# OL. the upside is 3 extra all pro performers matches our roster with the top 4 or 5, and with allen in the mix it's a wrap for the NFL. what's missed in this (or maybe not, maybe all that does matter is the real studs you have, i'm kinda on the fence tho) is how rapp and benford go down and we have literally the worst secondary in the NFL last season, and cooper isn't right and we are bottom 8 at WR. bottom 12 if we include TEs and consider that kinkaid was a walking stiff all season. patching up those holes will help us win games like the afc chip we lost in KC i think, but shipping in that CB who left GB (as an example) might throw in an all pro and solve a couple problems all at once. we win a chip this season if beane has a draft like kc did in 2022, and we are laughing, or it's literally the same results and another wasted year of record setting NFL allen's talent, and frankly i think beane gets walked out the door.

does anyone know if they can appeal and get it down to 2 or 3 games?

bad result, not a good look. as far as the cheating element of PEDs, i'm of the opinion that the NFL drug tests are really just IQ tests. they catch the unclever people who can't beat them. I'm also of the opinion that the majority of NFL players use PEDs, at least some of the time. i'm fine w these guys using them, but not fine with them getting busted. they need better people around them.

it seems to me mccoach always has one higher flight cb, and one much much cheaper cb. who he drafts or who we pick up in FA will sort of tell us if they want to pay christian or avoid it. benford is a good corner, but he was a 6th rounder for a reason, and has had two playoffs ruined with injuries and the back to back concussions are a real problem. if a corner they love falls to us at pick 30, or if they trade up for a corner, then they won't pay benford that much.

i could be wrong, but im thinking a trade for hendricks is better than sweat as a FA. FA CB could be good, but i wonder if putting a first of our 3 picks and then a late pick into CB isn't the better idea. that seems to have worked out more than once in the past. and am i smoking rocks thinking elam might just emerge (w better coaching and the knowledge that he has one shot left) as a guy who could play CB in the nfl?

samuel will have to get a lot better quickly. i think his feet were a mess and that is a big part of it, but w knox, kinkaid, shakir, samuel and how coleman looks so far, we are all slots all the time. if he can do some real work outside he'll improve our O a lot. brown has actually really bad deep pass stats, don't think he was ever someone the team wanted

C and G are the lowest value positions on the offense with the exception or RB, but that might be changing (not so long ago, RB was second only to qb). unless we are extending a real difference maker, i think the above is the correct strategy. if we can maintain at these IOL positions, or have one stud in the middle three and the other two being the best young guys on the team constantly fighting for burn, then that's money to spend on much higher position value (we already have our bookends locked up, and they make our line what it is). being able to grab a difference maker at WR, DE, or CB is worth much more than the same relative goodness at IOL. all that said, if he's actually better by enough than those behind him, he's worth a value contract. but we inked morse, knox, and diggs (his second contract, first was great) to deals that did not at all match their production and it cost us come playoff time.

ya, im pretty much bought into the joe marino method of cap %. samuels, knox, milano, miller all "hurt" the team because their production vs % of cap (historically, since the deals were signed) has been terrible. diggs and tre white similar, but an order of magnitude worse. diggs fell off, but the rest of them got hurt. if bernard, groot, and shakir stay healthy, these will all go down as solid signings. the above mentioned bad contracts will be replaced with cheaper rookies, or maybe one or two solid (hope superstar) free agents. Miller was signed for a similar aav (have to look into the specific details, it might be more like 18 than 20, but let's presume 20), but 10% of cap, and he was 10 years older. if we fudge the numbers a tiny bit, say presuming more cap growth, or presuming it is a bit lower aav than the headline, von was 50% more expensive than groot. chandler jones singed for a similar contract to miller (guarantee money at the least, 3 years and 51mm) and turned into a pumpkin almost instantly. the d sucked last season, so the glass half full view is we are signing these defenders to smaller contracts than they might have had post 2023

im personally looking for the donte whitner of the draft.

if they are extending him, benford, and groot, and especially if they bring in a heavy hitter on DL, they need to get cheaper all over the spot w rookies for depth and some starters. CB, S, DT, as well as maybe an OG/C (edwards will be an upgrade target, torrence will be expensive to extend in 2 years) WR, and maybe RB, and back up qb. aside from just not having an outside wr, our weakest spots are clearly secondary followed by DL. we need to add at least one difference maker there. as far as this specific contract -- 2024 bernard was OK, 2023 bernard was an actual monster, filled up the stat sheet as well as any bills LB i've seen. if he's more like 23 and less like 24 it's a good signing, if he gets hurt too much it's another albatross. time will tell.

as mentioned in another thread, w shakir's contract and paying cook what he wants we'd be at sub 10% now (and less in 2 years) for our two best skill players. a long threat wr is somewhat necessary for us to get over the next hump, but it can be one of like 30 guys who can do it decently. there arent' many guys who can fill our pass rush and up front physical needs.

if we can't get garrett he will do.