colin

im happy to see it. he is far and away the most seasoned nfl coach on our squad outside of say kromer and mcd himself, maybe our new d assistant or secondary coach can tie him. either mcd recognized it himself, or or beane/ownership forced his hand, but the total experience level of our coaching staff has shot up a ton since the start of last season. i think this kind of change acts as a wake up call to the players. the only ones who see continuity are the ones on O, and after the season they just had it's not exactly a hard conversation in the room as to why.

job 1 is the biggest impact player we can get. it's pretty clear that player is garrett, or parsons/crosby if they are available or we can't get garrett. job 2 is cb. a guy in the draft (via trade up or whatever), or an FA might have to be how we get a CB. I could see throwing a couple picks early and late at cb perhaps with and eye to getting someone who could also be a FS or nickleback to maximize the chance at burn. I kinda hope our new d coaching on the back end has a plan to get production out of elam. i'm not holding my breath but he played with such poor technique in the afc chip game that he can clearly get better with a more cogent scheme and coaching, but I just don't know if he can get good enough after that, various holes in the team need to be filled. based on cap, our picks, and what it will cost for garrett, i really don't know if there is room to drop fa money at the S position. i kinda think our winning a super bowl more or less requires bishop to to emerge as at least a replacement level NFL safety next season. the near historic awfulness of our secondary this season (less turnovers and our statistical season on D would have been around the worst in team history) coupled with how baltimore was the number one with a gun d last year, then had the worst pass d in the nfl for about 10 weeks, but then turned it all around and were solid again makes me think there are coaching solutions to rapid improvement. philly was similar, going from about the worst d in the nfl last season to the best this season. adding garrett would go a very long way to setting our secondary up for success.

if he were top 12-16 in pass blocking i'd prolly pay him that and have him on the field for like 60-75% of snaps. as a weapon he's a top 3 back and young and efficient and shifty. given he's like 45% of snaps, i think i'd go 12 or so MM a year. 10 was always the number i had in mind and i wouldn't let our best non allen weapon go over 2mm. a franchise tag is that much, so we can just tag him for two years in a row (or transition, which is like 10). as much as any nfl team we are a couple pieces from winning it all and we just blew out the ST coach and made about the biggest changes on D coaching that we've done since mcd took the team over.

not a fan of his catches/targets/yards/touchdown production numbers. we don't need a guy who needs to be kept involved as much as we need a guy who can always be ready for when he's needed. on paper that is amari cooper, but he didn't work out. I think his wrist was toast.

honestly, this is it. tons of value picks/good extensions (bernard kinda, milano, benford, brown, hamlin kinda, our back up o linemen, shakir, dawkins extension, the diggs trade net net was a big positive) home run in josh allen, and a few total absolute misses (kinkaid was not what you'd want, but not a total miss, coleman is off to a weak start, bishop is off to a weak start, carter is off to a weak start, elam looks simply awful, basham was a terrible pick, ford was a terrible pick, aj was a bad pick). just this offseason, samuel and dquan and the other guys we signed in FA all suck, hollins was a value home run. cooper trade didn't work out, but i like the attempt maybe if healthy he'd ball for us, douglas and hines the prior two years were not great (douglas was necessary for the first year, bad his second year). if 3 or 4 of those high picks or FA moves were real hits, i think we'd be champions today. hendrix over miller or something could have put us over (he was a FA out of NO, before cinci, right?). the downside is how bad these picks and signings and some extensions have been, the upside is how close we are with what looks like lots of meat on the bone.

if we can use what we saw on the field as data, we had a horrible downgrade at secondary coaching. our dc was LBs, and the other guy up for the spot was DB coaching. i'm hoping that the new additions for our d coaching staff pay off quickly, but the immediate info tells us mcd promoted the wrong guy.

it was a less pro kc crew than I have seen all year, very much so more than when we visited them 2 weeks back. one thing I have noticed, their OL has such a tight formation, the one RT lines up straight back (lol, how is that allowed), and I think it lets them get away with brief holds and hands to the face because it's a big messy melee and the refs don't always have a clear line of sight. we, on the other hand, get flagged quite a bit for holding, but it's easy mode for the zebras because we have so much motion and movement on our line, not to mention wider gaps. the other thing that really stood out to me is what looked like somewhat delays loops and games by the iggles dline. they all had their initial rush lanes, but after contact they were quick to redirect. i don't think this was just the individuals playing their own way, i really think it was coached and thought out. our dl gets better pressure on games than straight up, but it leaves rush lanes for qbs and sometimes the game is too easy to read up front. either way, the coverage difference, especially for that mid game stretch when we had elam just sticking it up and hamlin holding 87 off the line every time (it generally worked, but he got flagged a few times for it) and slow slow douglas trailing and bishop playing which man is mine was a shocking revelations.

pass rush and corner, that's where we stank vs kc. honorable mention to safety. we've had one elite (or below) corner and one trash corner every playoffs. we had white back when he was all pro, and levi wallace beside him. we had injured white, and then young miracle benford, and then douglas. last playoff and this one benford was hurt, and i think douglas was last year too but played when he wasn't really capable. TJ7 is always getting banged up. when the rams and detroit lit us up (detroit really only the last 20 min of the game) it was the same thing again. our DL was awol vs the rams, they played pretty great vs detroit, but once we had corner and safety injuries, we just bled passing yards to them. beyond whatever schematic changes our new coaching on D will get us, we just need some athletes. perhaps most particularly, we need athletes and a scheme that can work together. elam never getting burn at all means he's got no development. I agree with many that he might just be a total bust and needs to go, but he's shown up before. how is it hamlin was a person we decided could run our d optimally in the offseason? there has got to be a change there, and while i'm a mcd hater, he's made some fairly big coaching moves (new dc, now a new secondary coach and new DL/assistant DC, all in the past 12 months). if you plug in a couple bad holes, even with rookies, fix the schematic issues where we just aren't multiple, and air drop a world beating talent like garrett, this d can get allen the ball a few more times without allowing points. it will also make it hard for opponents to string together first downs (we allowed what, 20+ first downs a game? it's crazy that we won so many) and long drives keeping allen away from the ball. philly would have trucked out d, but my gosh would the bills have put up a better show against them on O. we played kinda bad vs kc and had 4 tubs and a FG. prime time allen mighta just messed around and throw in 5+ scores in the bowl

focusing on process is a trendy thing in business and parenting and such. like almost all new trends tho, new studies have shown that it doesn't necessarily lead to better results. mcd is in many ways a state of the art 2012 guy, the problem is the old time stuff still works, and there are newer improvements on these trendy things from a management and also football stand point. the dude who was GM at the giants was the same way, and he made all the right moves from a process POV -- got a qb, got OL and DL talent, added a play maker on O. the problem was he got soldier on a big contract, becton as a top 5-10 draft pick, the DL did work out, and he got that scrub danny dimes at qb. he also got a terrible WR. he was procedurally great, but his results were dog water because he consistently got the wrong guys. the rams and philly made good procedural moves too, but when they don't work they make adjustments with urgency. in the end results matter, and i really hope that the firing of the ST coach, bringing in a senior guy for D, and a seasoned db coach are signs that mcd might be finding some religion and getting with the program. moves like trading for garrett, drafting actual fast big strong guys, and taking the risks to implement what these new coaches came in to do will be the proof.

looking back, the two best teams in the nfc by the time the playoffs rolled around were the rams and iggles. a snow storm and all kinds of stuff got philly over the rams, the rams were harassing hurts unmerciful but barclay ate them. the ravens, bills, and kc were all the top flight teams in the afc. the bills came down to back end injuries, bad drops, and horrible calls from beating kc in kc. if we look at what the bills O did in domes vs the rams and detroit, i think we can say that allen and co would have balled the eff out in new orleans on O and made it a game.

nah, this doesn't hit the mark. philly had fat andy, someone many think of as one of the best ever. he did great (4 nfc chips in a row, 1 sb, close loss) but not good enough. the canned him and took a swing w chip kelly. had an exciting team, but not good enough, they canned him and got peaderson. he got them a chip, w their 2nd overall qb pick hurt, that's an insane result. the team fell off (they baked the wrong horse at qb) and his butt got canned. they reloaded at qb, rebuild the team, and got to another sb but lost a super close one. so, they rebuilt the D, brought in top flight coordinators, and now just walked to another ring. philly fired two top flight coaches, including one who won them a chip, and are a better team for it. they traded picks to move up, traded picks for players, went out and signed big FAs, and reset their coaches below HC. they saw what wasn't good enough, and made bold moves. we have mcd for at least one more year, that's obvious, but aside from changing scouts and the GM (we have had really bad top round picks and some crippling contracts, i don't think anyone would argue with that), mcd himself has shown us our coaching just isn't good enough. he canned an OC midseason, forced frazier out, and now brought in a seasoned guy to breath down the neck of his DC and also upgraded at secondary coach. as it sits right now, the bills have a hole in vertical passing, and the D basically blows. turnovers and a super charged ball control O (that's a really rare thing) have made them look way better than they actually are. mcd and beane have this season to right that ship (frankly, i think they are on borrowed time at this point). multiple top shelf pass rushers are available for trade or rumored to be available for trade, this is their chance. hamlin and knox and douglas and coleman and injured cooper and softmore slump kinkaid and injury magnets milano and bernard and rapp and bishop aren't scaring anyone. there needs to be an infusion of talent and a cogent strategic change in coaching to maximize whatever roster we end up with in the 2025 season, or else the keys get handed over to someone else. i honestly think mcd knows it and will act accordingly.

if we had a little bit of our defensive back end healthy it would have been a 1-2 point spread and depending on how we played we would have had every chance to beat philly. mahomes has legit dropped off really badly. last year and this year. he shreds our d because fat andy owns mcd's d (i think clappy just figured that out and that's why he's brought in all these new defensive coaches) and it's always a tight game -- when kc was winning their big regular season loss and their close playoff win always came against us. philly has a sick roster, best next to baltimore IMO, but they are not as huge and physical. allen would shred fangio, cook would run all over them. philly has a better pass blocking line, but not as good in run blocking. we'd run on their nickel. on d i think we'd sell out to stop the run and hurts isn't a wizard, he'd have some mistakes and we'd capitalize. we'd sell out to stop the run and philly would pass on us, but they'd make enough mistakes to give us a chance. philly is the one team allen has never beaten and i think that would have super charged JA17. we may well have lost that super bowl, but i say top level allen shows up after sneaking by the chiefs and he balls out like only he can. kc lost because their o did absolutely nothing. allen can make plays no one else can and he woulda done that. If the game was done over and we were in it i'd have bet on the bills and i think we win an all time great game.

Mahomes has really looked washed all season.

we need allen to get better at reading the d like brady so our D can hold them to 9. if our d could hold kc to 9 allen would have 5 rings.

9ers or pittz makes the most sense.

if we got mack on a better value contract to fill in for the occasional pass rusher role and traded for garrett the d line would be completely shocking. i'd be comfortable keeping who we have for the rest of it and just filling in gaps w rookies and i'd be confident we'd cruise to a top 5 D

garrett is better than crosby, but crosby might just be a slightly better individual pass rusher/sack artist. the size and power of garrett puts him over IMO. both i don't think could ever fit into our cap, either would really improve our D. what's interesting is clevland might have a cap issue trading garrett, so that complicates it.

if babbich is scapegoated and fired, this guy just slides in as DC. it is known.

as an ultra hater, the accusations have merit and are pretty terrible. but we also have a talent deficiency. some holes filled in the draft and a wrecking ball like garrett could be enough to force 2 more punts per game in the playoffs. allen w a possession advantage like that, w our line and rb, is more than any nfl d can handle.

philosophically i disagree a little bit in that i think building on strength is optimal and making our O even better w big talent is the generally more accessible path, while our D can be improved with just improving overall talent above replacement in a few places. in the interest of what can be done right now, as of today, myles being up for trade basically changes that. adding a higgins or even DK means more deep passing routes, more targets to the new guy, etc. i'm all for that, but there is a cost in terms of opportunity to run and throw to other guys. there is also draft capital, cap, or both for those guys, so it comes down to numbers. garrett is IMO the best defensive player in the NFL, and potentially the guy to break bruce's record. i've never thought that about another nfl player till now, outside of some 2 year stretch that looked great or whatever. he's also a huge physical nasty guy, that's worth a lot on the DL. i think a whirl or two at WR and one of coleman, samuel, or kinkaid stepping up makes us better on offense. not tee higgins better, but better. gerrett solves so many problems at once on our d, and means the slightly better depth DT, S, and CB we add in the draft or on the cheap now plays much better with a game wrecker on the field with them. if benford is healthy, and we have someone better than hamlin, bishop (i think he might get there in his second year) and some of the trash we had at depth DT, if you add garrett we stop KC 4 or 5 times instead of 2, and we have the ball more and on shorter fields and get to like 34 points with kc in the 20s and playing desperation mode to catch up.

HOW DARE YOU SAY THAT YOU FOOL! lol, seriously I think that's the lowest hanging fruit. we've re done our secondary in the past with good results, just make it not suck and add talent to the O so we score 7-10 extra in the KC game.

given we keep our brain trust, this is where I am. we can plug some holes on D in the draft, get young cheap fast players and hopefully add wrinkles to the d so it's not so easy to beat. CB, S, and pass rush all kinda suck, but we aren't likely to get impact guys at all of those positions, especially given our cap. I say just get less terrible on D (3rd down, basically) and throw in DK, Higgins, or whoever to force defenses to stop our run with light boxes and deep coverage (not gonna happen).

I think what is most obviously true is josh has grown up, and the bills have far and away the best OL and Run game in the Allen era. We consistently win in the trenches on the offensive side of the ball, and then you have allen making magic and cook, davis, and Ty who combine to be a top 3-5 running back unit. To me it's how josh is playing and where our talent is (i'd say our elite talents now are dawkins, brown, cook, and allen, before it was allen, diggs, maybe dawkins (i think he's better cuz the LG is way better) and Milano). it's gone from WLB (milano is still a player, just not what he was in 2022) and kinda S and CB (white fell off horribly after injury, but was near elite before, pay and hyde were a great duo but never the most talented guys) to OL, RB. also, Diggs was never a vertical threat vs his underneath stuff and route running, which we have in shakir. allen and a good OL can score on anyone, but we just can't score enough to offset our putrid playoff D.

Statistically this season we were better vs the run than the pass, quite a bit better in terms of EPA. Part of it is our d generally stopped big runs (not vs bmore, lol) w the back end, kinda allowed medium runs via light boxes, and got near the top in the NFL in stuff's because of shooting gaps and what not. Vs the pass we were pretty awful, and now where showed that more than 3rd downs. I think our scheme has linemen running a lot more than most, so our linemen get tired. I'm not really worried about all of that or the rotation or whatever. I'm worried about how any high level O can just lean on what they want to do and do it at will to us. In 21 and 22 when we had the 1 and 2 rates Ds in the NFL, the game splits were shocking. Blowing out creampuffs, while getting just trucked a few times (Indy and ne when they ran the ball all over us, and every single playoff game vs a non terrible offense). We need talent on D, but we need to not have giant holes either. Given that our O had been a disgusting monster since 2020, and generally as good or better in the playoffs, I say build on strength, make the O out staple, and for the d I hope our FO can find a bit of flexibility to not lock the entire roster and scheme so narrowly so that we don't just totally capsize when benford or Milano or Johnson inevitably get injured. Also, if we get more scheme diverse guys (basically it means they have speed size and ability rather than just whatever it is that MCD loves so much) then if they crap the bed for the 6th consecutive time in the playoffs and we fire the FO, we aren't left with some rage tag squad of Hamlin and Elam and rapp.

knox, von, and milano have signed contracts which did damage to this team because of injuries. i feel like we might face the same thing with groot, bernard, and benford. guys who miss games, or have their play fall off hard due to injury, but are on big contracts essentially crush your team. injuries happen of course, but some guys just get hurt more than others.