colin
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Posts posted by colin
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I think there is a chance he falls a bit and then mayyyybe we can trade up and get him around like 10 or so. Being a guy who can play wr and cb could hurt him w NFL gms who are scared of someone who doesn't fit into a box (trubisky went before mahomes and Watson, that big LSU back went before McCafferty, Josh Rosen went a mile before Lamar Jackson).
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3 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said:
What a dumpster fire that team has become. They built such a good solid team and it’s all been wasted
they have the opposite issue we have, tons of top tier blue chip talent and a weak qb.
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Just now, Mikie2times said:
My biggest concern here is if we don't add a starting caliber 1-Tech AND CB, we are likely worse off than last year, where our EPA on non turnover plays was among the worst in football. DaQuan Jones really fell off last year and even if we did sign Rasul, he also appeared over matched athletically. Dane Jackson is nice for depth, but he just can't be our #2 CB. I don't see a lot of angles here for us to prioritize offensive talent. I also don't think nailing two starters is overly likely, but if I had to prioritize, I'm going 1-tech all day. Bernard would really benefit from that type of player as would our whole defense IMO.
that's a fair concern. i disagree on 1 tech tho. a starting quality cb is worth so much more than a 25-50% of snaps 1 tech. we need a 1 tech, but if he's not a guy who can be a top 10 at his position player, an average starting cb does so much more for the team.
bosa hoyt oliver and groot in whatever mix the put them in can be a nasty pass rush package. if williams or bernard can make some plays on passing downs as kind of wildcard/joker types our 3rd and long pass d could be way way better, we were just about the bottom in the nfl last season. just getting that up will lead to more punts in money games, and a starting quality cb2 gets us a long way there along w the boys we got in the trench.
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if he can get his contract worked out for us, and didn't cost to much i'd do it. he would make the team better or the same at every position (assuming we get a starting cb and DT in the draft) than what we were last season, including having two real outside threats at WR.
i think this is more smoke than fire tho.
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1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:
and this may be the answer I was looking for. what round or what specific player would you suggest?
I think "hard" was the wrong word kind sir. I think maybe the word or words used for this is the stress put on our QB to get the same job done?
man did you hit the head on the nail for me. THANK YOU!
it seems to me our brain trust is basically banking on kinkaid, coleman, palmer, and whoever we draft to all have solid positive impacts on the team, as well as our young guys and FAs on D. very beane/mcd esque strategy of buying a bunch of lotto tickets and hoping rather than putting all your eggs in one basket not named josh allen. they might need to swing on some athletic freaks in the draft in the hopes we get a field stretcher, impact cb2, and some kind of monsters up front.
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5 minutes ago, FireChans said:
DK for 2nd and 4th of course.
that’s not really the point in this topic though. The point is that extending those players at this point isn’t really upgrading the team. It’s keeping the team the team together.
that's true, i think the mindset of the FO is that the new coaches on D, adding bosa and hoyt and that dt from pittz, and whoever we add in the draft is gonna result in a better team -- along w bishop and williams and carter growing up, and kinkaid and coleman getting right on O.
i agree we shoulda added real blue chip talent, but the only DL who seemed to be at a high level who was actually available was hendrickson (i really wanted garrett) and at WR it was maybe adams (if he woulda signed, not certain at all) and the dk trade. i thought dk signed for too much tho.
if i had my way, and we coulda gotten him for not so much in draft picks, i woulda not extended bernard, not signed palmer and the dt from pittz, and gotten DK -- but the d needs help so i kinda get it.
beane needs his picks from last year to show improve or to have a total monster draft this season IMO.
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1 hour ago, QLBillsFan said:
You are doubling down that the Douglas trade was bad? Did you watch him play in the first year? He was outstanding.
in hindsight it was. we paid the guy, and he blew this past season. he was good his first year, but now we have one single starting outside corner, and we had douglas and elam let us down hard and lose us the afc chip game, so ya it was a bad trade. we coulda dumped a 3 into a cb last year, or packaged and traded up and got thomas jr or something. that mighta got us to the bowl.
im not even fading the last two in season trades, i thought at the time they had a good enough shot to get us over the hump. are you douglas' agent, cousin?
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18 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:
I mostly agree but not about a 1T at 30. To me that would be the exact opposite of aiming high and taking the risk of failure. You are 100% right that Roseman is willing to swing for the fences. Beane - despite his hilariously wrong “Big Baller” nickname - nearly always plays it safe and hits it down the fairway and in that sense he and McD are in lockstep. They are a risk-mitigating organization even though they otherwise operate well. “We’ll blitz but only if we play our DBs way back just in case…”. “Make sure we have a vet in every position room because we need to keep the kids on mission in case the coaching doesn’t take.” “We’ll move around the draft board but only if we don’t lose too many mid-round picks.” “We’ll pay for veteran receivers but only after we buy three more vet linemen because Sean’s defense needs new old blood every year.”A one tech at 30 would be a pure safe need pick that is super unlikely to get a second contract and if they did it would likely be a bad use of cap dollars.
a 1 tech at 30 is similar to the bishop pick in the 2nd (i was a big fan of his coming out of college, so it shows my drafting chops!). If it's a year one starter who is or will be better than the rest of the roster at his position, then it's a really good pick. if it's a project, or a non starter (like carter has been, total washout so far), or a guy who got hurt and stymied his growth year one (like bishop or coleman) then you missed a chance at a real plus player at a more important positions.
i think our first four selections will be DT, CB, WR, with a slim shot at edge rusher. i could see 2 DTs and 2 CBs, but no less than one of each. if a guy is pat williams, then im happy to spend the 30 or trade up in the 1st for him, but those don't come along too often.
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21 minutes ago, ganesh said:
I would love to see the same...but may be a DE to throw in...We have a 1st, 2 2nd's and 2 4th...Either package the two 4ths into a 3rd or trade down a 2nd to get an additional 3rd... or two 3rds and an additional 5th. We need a few game changes...so if they need to go up the draft and get a play between the 15 to 20 range, they should do it... They should also use Epenesa as a trade option.
there is a 0% chance we spend our first 5 picks exactly where they are right now. no shot! makes draft day a bit more fun, at the least.
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8 hours ago, Mikie2times said:
They will do whatever they want offensively this year when they play us.
They aren't the same team as the ones who destroyed us, but anybody that can match you point for point is dangerous. We won't slow Burrow down even a little. McD has no clue how to defend a guy like him.
the advanced stats and the tape shows that over the last say 2 years (the hamlin season was honestly a bit different, von went down, trey white came back but should not have had an nfl jersey on, and dorsey was playing dr demento on O) that our actual problem (which was news to me tbh) on D was how we defended an accurate passer. we continued to be tops of the tops at stopping deep passes, and kinda let teams run on light boxes (last season the only game we got really trucked on was the 2nd game vs miami where we sold out vs the pass and dared them to run on us. the baltimore game we got BTFO on big plays and horrible offensive production as much as anything). the rams game, the second half of the detroit game, and the kc playoff game really nailed this. we used so much smoke and mirrors and extreme offensive efficiency to pressure teams into turnovers (i now admit they are not entirely random, there is a method to that madness) to mask how our D just did zilch to make the day long for an accurate passing team.
outside of staffy, joe cool is the most accurate passer in the nfl imo, and his garbage line isn't enough for us because our scheme and lack of talent has lead to either big time disruption up front or easy mode stuff on the back end, rather than a well coordinated d where the rush impacts the throw in synergy with the coverage (ironically, that is exactly what mcd's d in carolina did at an elite level).
im just hoping the changes in d coaching and the addition of potential xfactor rushers (hoyt and bosa) mixes in w who we have enough to change that this season, but trotting out raw coordinators doesn't give me that much confidence that we will have a big change -- but a change must happen one way or another.
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13 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:
Are you suggesting the Douglas trade for a 3rd was bad? Cooper maybe, but the team scored 30 pts a game and he took attention from others and was injured. Cooper maybe is looking for a deal too high for age and production. Sad on Hollins is where I’ll agree.
im saying we managed to get ourselves into a situation where our two worst position groups (maybe we have to stretch from cb to secondary, since we have TJ and benford at cb) secondary and wr not only had a lack of top end talent, but also the effective depth was pure cheeks.
for example, i think our 3rd lb, williams, is gonna be a bit of a monster. our back ups at RG and C look like they aren't too bad of a fall off from our starters. we have a top 3 or so tackle combo, but when the RT went down vs kc in 2024 reg season, they still blocked their buts off. any one of our RBs can make steady or big plays. it's just goofy to me that we ended up, after spending high picks and trading 3rds mid season the past two seasons, with such a disaster at wr and cb/secondary in the afc chip game.
to answer your question, in retrospect the douglas and the cooper trades were bad, but i supported them at the time and if coop stayed healthy maybe it woulda worked out.
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the depth and quality of the cb and wr position last season was shocking.
two guys who are FAs are getting not a sniff, and they were both starters for us, who we traded 3rd round picks for. and to top that off, the back up behind douglas (who filled in for our actually good cb) was a total write off in elam, and the back up for cooper was hollins who we didn't even bother to talk to and raw injured rookie coleman.
lol, sad.
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as mentioned in this thread, if they re up one or two IOL, or put a decent (say top 4 rounds) pick into the line, they are stamping their intent of throwing cheap bodies at RB, and putting money/picks into the OL. i think we offer cook a contract, and if he doesn't just take it he's a free agent next season.
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we have a top 3 or 4 tackle combo in the nfl, and the best qb in the nfl. our rookie RG is solid, and the C is likely up for a 12+ a year contract.
we have some lame contracts to get out of, but this team really is (on offense) built from the ball out. some quality outside wr play and this team legit can threaten to break the nfl scoring record.
if cook holds out and doesn't play next season, i think our over the year drop off from that is worth like 1 or 2 points a game. better wr and TE play would be worth more than that. overall, and this is with me being a bit of a hater on our OC, this is likely the most anti fragile offense in the nfl.
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a young moulds on this current bills team would break 200 yards and 3TDs in multiple playoff games.
the only guy of that era that i would put above him (two guys) at his best and healthy would be TO and moss.
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well, it looks like the NFL has decided that it goes
1 QB
tied for 2 WR/DE or Edge as the kids say
3 CB
4 LT
I'll say an inside outside pass rush guy (jones in KC) is right there w a DE, but the vast majority of them are DEs
now, DE is schematically more important that WR for just about every NFL team (ahem, cinci) so to get top stack WR money i think you need to be a bit more rarified than a DE. so like, consistent 10+ sacks and mad pressures puts you way over 25mm and gets you into that 25-35 range, but for WR it's gotta be a pretty monster producer to get there (like a metcalf, higgins is getting quite a bit less than dan hunter in this thread, for example).
the one rub in all of this IMO is that aside from RB (used to be MLB, but i think that's changed some because they do different things in the nfl than ncaa now) CB is the most starter ready position as a rookie. benford, white, gilmore, we've drafted lots of CBs who started as rookies and looked flippin good doing so. it's mad rare for a qb, DE, and even a WR or LT to look that good as a rook. IMO, that's the only thing that is keeping CB money from eclipsing WR money.
Gs and to a lesser extent Cs have had their pay scale up too, but the real red headed step children and S, TE, and off ball LB. ironic that we (as of the prior two seasons) had so much in those positions (milano, knox, poy, hyde). we've also dumped a lot of draft capital into RB (since allen came in what, 3 or 4 3rds, a 2nd, and a 4th?) but in the past two seasons we have had sick running production so i can't be too mad.
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in that video where the philly fan is likely of average height so the camera is angled up to see bosa and he points the finger he looks like some roman centurion from a sword and sandals movie.
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given who we signed, taht there are some primo 1 tech in the draft, and our secondary needs i think there is a really really low shot we trade for this guy now. i suppose aj could get cut and they ship in hendrickson, but i just don't think they put that much more into the DL right now, especially since he will want a new contract.
i think of we make a splash move, it's for the best CB available, and we still draft at least one more. if we hit on a real 1 tech, and maybe a 3 tech in the draft (to back up oliver) we are adequate in the front 6 w 3 guys who are signed who can play LB, 3 average to potentially all pro DEs in aj, groot, and bosa, and then the other two guys we signed plus those picks.
we play w 5 or 6 dbs like 80% of the time. t johnson is getting old and is often banged up, benford has been hurt some, we seem to have filled up the safety room, but we need at least two more corners on the team just to have a roster. that would be the max value add position to me at this point.
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the only thing that fixes this, the TE/WR issue, with what we have on the roster (unless palmer or coleman or someone just pulls a moulds and explodes into being a top flight wr out of nowhere) is Kinkaid gets healthy and we just punish everyone for having a single LB on the field, which feeds into (it did very well last season, but it would have to be like olympic level) us just running the ball at will and winning TOP and chewing up the field.
an actual bonafide outside threat with consistency on this offense would set NFL passing and scoring records. I suppose we can draft one, but other than that we should be about what we were, which was simply outstanding except vs houston and baltimore. an all pro CB, hits on DL draft picks, and the guys we signed this offseason being above contract value would mean the d is top 5 again and we host the afc chip game.
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out of all of those categories, i'd say the all pro column is the most representative. if we go by that then i think it's about right. the up
side is allen and lately our Oline are so very good enough we can beat all the teams some of the time and most of the teams most of the time. i'd put that at about 70# and 30# OL.
the upside is 3 extra all pro performers matches our roster with the top 4 or 5, and with allen in the mix it's a wrap for the NFL.
what's missed in this (or maybe not, maybe all that does matter is the real studs you have, i'm kinda on the fence tho) is how rapp and benford go down and we have literally the worst secondary in the NFL last season, and cooper isn't right and we are bottom 8 at WR. bottom 12 if we include TEs and consider that kinkaid was a walking stiff all season.
patching up those holes will help us win games like the afc chip we lost in KC i think, but shipping in that CB who left GB (as an example) might throw in an all pro and solve a couple problems all at once.
we win a chip this season if beane has a draft like kc did in 2022, and we are laughing, or it's literally the same results and another wasted year of record setting NFL allen's talent, and frankly i think beane gets walked out the door.
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does anyone know if they can appeal and get it down to 2 or 3 games?
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bad result, not a good look.
as far as the cheating element of PEDs, i'm of the opinion that the NFL drug tests are really just IQ tests. they catch the unclever people who can't beat them. I'm also of the opinion that the majority of NFL players use PEDs, at least some of the time. i'm fine w these guys using them, but not fine with them getting busted. they need better people around them.
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it seems to me mccoach always has one higher flight cb, and one much much cheaper cb. who he drafts or who we pick up in FA will sort of tell us if they want to pay christian or avoid it. benford is a good corner, but he was a 6th rounder for a reason, and has had two playoffs ruined with injuries and the back to back concussions are a real problem.
if a corner they love falls to us at pick 30, or if they trade up for a corner, then they won't pay benford that much.
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i could be wrong, but im thinking a trade for hendricks is better than sweat as a FA.
FA CB could be good, but i wonder if putting a first of our 3 picks and then a late pick into CB isn't the better idea. that seems to have worked out more than once in the past.
and am i smoking rocks thinking elam might just emerge (w better coaching and the knowledge that he has one shot left) as a guy who could play CB in the nfl?
Bills player mentioned on a Joe Rogan podcast with Ron White.
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Miller shoulda been travelling to medical clinics getting better peds and stem cells and the like for his knee.
Sad!