colin

Lots of players get much more. groot will get like 8-9% of cap, 12+ for garrett, allen will re up for like 20% apy. the model that seems to make the best sense (aside from find a very good quarterback) is to get real game changing talent, particularly at impact positions, and to fill in as much as possible young and cheap w guys on rookie contracts, and use value/middle class free agency to fill in the rest. our real problem as a team (rosterwise) is two fold: one -- not enough game changers. we are good enough at qb and OL (as a group, not as much about individual super stars, but for me brown and dawkins are a top 3 or 4 tackle duo) and maybe at rb (i think it's more about qb and ol than rb talent, but cook is a legit top 5-10 rb IMO) to basically contend every year, but we don't have real big time impact guys in enough positions. a great wideout or TE might have caught an additional pass or broken a tackle leading to points to put us over vs kc, for example. two -- we are a heavily middle class team, but without the generally expected benefit of depth, specifically at the positions we tend to get injured at. our secondary and LBs get injured so much (only two starters on D didn't miss time in the season for injury), and what we end up putting in behind them is just cheeks. the fact that we have hamlin, douglas, and bernard and rapp (i like him, but he's a middle of the pack starting nfl off ball LB) as starters and the guys behind them are just so awful at times really shows how the roster has not been managed at a championship level (imo, draft picks have fallen short lately, but the real issue is the free agency and the contracts, hurting us in free agency). our DTs suck as a group, but it almost doesn't matter who we dress because they are at least comparable. our OL is our second best unit (next to allen obv) but they are deep too, and we could upgrade at LG or roll with what we have and be top 5-10 either way, we are 3 deep at RB, and our top 2 TEs are basically interchangeable, in that if one goes down, the other will roughly replace them. its silly that we have so much depth where we basically don't need it (OL, and we don't play to our strengths with multiple backs or pass catching TEs on the field) but a below replacement guy on d goes down and we all of a sudden fold like a tent.

i could see bernard getting a second contract if it's fairly cheap, 2.5-4% of cap area. I think dorian might improve again this season and become the replacement for either bernard or milano, so we could roll w williams and bernard if milano walks, or if milano gets healthy and back to how great he was in 22, have williams and milano and let bernard walk when his contract is up. they will also drop a round 2-5 pick on lbs every year or two and figure one of them will emerge. last year safety and CB was by far our worst position no the team, and that's saying a lot given our LB injuries and what our WR room looks like. cb is premium, but safety can be solved for cheap or with lower picks (i was high on bishop, he's been cheeks, he really needs to turn it around), and i think that's how it will be addressed along w LB going forward.

we have to get younger and cheaper in as many spots as possible (while not compromising quality too much) and get some game changers. i don't think this guy fits that bill if we can nab crosby/parsons/garrett. he'd be the 3rd or 4th best lineman (hoping that oliver can ball out again). he'd be a great addition if healthy, but if he stops us from getting a vet cb, or garrett, it is not a fit.

joe marino always goes on about % of cap. this is just shy of 5.5%, if the cap is going to pop as much in the next two years as it has in the last two years, that's going to be closer to 4%. we can do this, extend groot, trade for garrett, and even bring in a vet cb/wr this offseason based on the above. we have to get cheaper elsewhere, which means rookies come in and play well. von, knox, milano will all have contract reductions or be let go in the next two years. allen can be extended to shift his cap forward when cap inflation makes the % much smaller. i think shakir would get about that in FA, and you can argue his skill set isn't worth that, but you don't put a uniform on skill sets, you put a uniform on players, and his chemistry w allen, his level of work and focus, and his understanding of the offense on this team are all really really high value. this being kinda cheap for his production vs cook being eye watering at the same contract shows a great example of relative value in the nfl. you play with 3 and change wrs on average, and 1 and change rbs on average. upgrading an individual wr gives you more opportunity for comparative advantage on offense, the d has to pick their poison and potentially change coverage. you generally defend an RB more or less the same way, and the OL has such a huge impact on the run game that we have high levels of production per snap on all of our RBs. i think the nfl has gone a little too far w over valuing wrs (especially the top guys) and undervaluing rbs (again, especially the top guys, henry and barkley were obvious cheat code level players who were obtained for not much % of cap) but the direction is right. by the 3rd year of this contract (4 years time from now), after the guarantee is more or less absorbed (im guessing, assuming no restructures) shakir will be like 3 and change % of cap. he was our best wr in 2023 even with diggs having a huge start to his season, that's a pretty good value proposition.

we don't even run a tush push, we just do a qb sneak to the left. we really should develop that play to have misdirection, alternatives, and an actual push.

mcd's scheme is just too fragile. he can't have anyone make a mistake or else it's just easy mode for the quarterback to find open guys. mahomes has fallen off horribly, and his guys got open so fast he just tossed short balls with no pressure within 1.7 seconds for the majority of his snaps. those guys are open because reid knows how the bills will play those plays, and mahomes can see the bills fail to cover (and i suppose fail to rush, but the coverage was just awful). they threw in a qb run to the right and scored what, 2 or 3 tubs with it? and several first downs. groot is our best defensive player (maybe benford, but he's been hurt a lot) and he was running up the field over and over and mahomes was going wide. if our DC/HC/whoever can't adjust to what they are seeing or get our best player to not make the same mistake over and over, they aren't good coaches. they brought in some new coaches on D, and a new ST guy, so clearly the people in the building know it's not good enough. lets see if beene can get his thumb out of his azz and add some actual talent that doesn't suck (and at bad contract value) enough in one offseason. coleman, bishop, carter and davis were our top 4 picks. the only one of them who looked like an NFL player was davis, and his playing takes snaps away from our best non allen guy on offense. that's a shockingly bad offseason and he needs to hit it out of the park this offseason.

what did this bosa do that was so bad? I'd be happy if he came here on a prove it deal, like a one year thing. if we get garrett, we'd have a shocking shocking line that could destroy our enemies. garrett, oliver, groot, bosa, oliver is the smallest guy there. nobody having a good day facing that.

You just like him because on paper he is as English as the day is long. my computer started playing "Swing low, sweet chariot" when I clicked on his profile.

i think the trend is correct, but it's gone too far in both directions. way too much on wrs (gabe davis getting like 15 or so is bananas), and rbs are a little undervalued IMO (henry and saquan both being available in an offseason is crazy work).

i wonder if he's going to atlanta. they have the young guy, so maybe not, but he's a real georgia boy. the jets (they have no cap, right?) would be a horrible turn of events. I don't want a team w their skill talent and D in our division w staffy. pittz, ten, NO, minni (another one w a young qb so prolly not), could all use him.

this guy is young, went to wesminster, has a super english last name in gladstone, was captain of the football team, and is leading the jags, and has salon quality hair. did khan hire him thinking he went to wesminster in the UK, played Futball, and is a clever lad steeped in the tradition of the beautiful game?

ive been pro extending cook, and tbh i still am. but seeing this written out like that makes it way too clear. barclay is really a better player than cook, it isn't really close. i've been saying 12mm per year, but honestly that might just be too much.

we have that in dorian williams (bigger than our other guys, if not a big MLB, but he's super physical) mcd gets way too married to his system and his guys at times, the real problem is DE. we've dumped so much into DE that there just isn't much left at DT, and what we have done for DT have been more miss than hit (star, who had just ungodly talent and really prolly hated football, ed oliver has been too inconsistent, looks like tarzan some games, and jane in others, and DQ jones turned old overnight). our run isn't great, but for the end of 2023 and all 2024 it was meaningfully better than our pass D. our DL has always had strong pass rush win % and pressure numbers, but it simply hasn't been good enough to get the job done. a big part of it has been mentioned here by sojourner and others, we have a sort of very specific scheme and technique we have our guys play with. we don't have the guys to make it work. the upside, is one nasty game wrecker turns the whole thing on its head. if we can get some actual guys in the secondary (say one starting S, and CB2, hope it can be elam but it doesn't look likely) who can cover a bit, and trade for garrett, ed oliver and groots pressures turn into DE2 and DT 2 pressures, and those guys get even more impact. in allen's first year, edmunds was horribly out of position the first two games, or game and a half, and we had that CB literally retire on us at halftime. the d was shocking for the first 6 or 7 quarters. and after that, it was #2 or so the rest of the season. it's a bit of a finesse D, but when it works it's elite, teh problem is when it doesn't work it just falls into shambles (exhibit: our playoff D). in carolina, mcd had hardy, the kraken (goat nickname, not the nicest of men). he had short, those two sick LBs, and helped josh norman steal like 50mm dollars from snyder when DC signed him. solid safety play too. but when hardy got suspended for what was probably 5 felonies but the witnesses sort of recanted, that D went from dominant and most of all physical to like middle of the pack. they dominated peyton in the superbowl, but cam newton had his worst game as a pro and they lost. i really hope garrett can be our less criminally insane kraken and get the D to what the head clapper always envisioned.

if that's the case, i'd say not boozing and being grown up is 90% of it, 10% is the roids.

sticks and stones will break my bones but words shall never hurt me. richie obviously is a huge jerk and a bully, but people saying mean or racist things isn't that big of a deal in places like an nfl locker room where it's the norm. particularly when fouls that may or not even get called and don't necessarily lead to a player being ejected are often a fully intentional attempt to basically maim someone. like, on any meaningful moral scale, what richie said is way way way less of any kind of sin or problem than when garrett tried to murder rudolph with a helmet to an uncovered head. we are all ready to forgive garrett (i'd love to trade a first and a 2nd for him!!) but in what universe can you be accept that and take a stand on richie bullying his pal (im certain richie thought they were pals), even if how he did it was pretty laughably over the top, but only just words?

so, i'm going to differ from you on one thing (to a degree) roids don't change people, they just supercharge them. canseco was shy as a youth, and out of control as a big time pro, but he's an ego maniac even off the roids (i knew a neighbor of his, really rich area, the neighbor really got a kick out of jose but had stories which amused him about what a total over the top goof he was, and that's years after retiring and at the very least, doing way less roids). foster, canseco, and richie are all jerks/psychos, a holes, basically the stereo type of people who would be locked up if they weren't so good at sports. i also think these guys use a lot of other recreational drugs which do worse things to their minds than roids do, by a lot. now, anyone who is hip to doping, anti doping, and human performance will laugh out loud if you ask them about steroids and peds in the nfl. 1 -- the testing is lax. USADA, the IOC testing, and a couple others are the zenith of testing and they can be defeated and are (usually, the testing changes when a whistleblower comes out with how they were being cheated, they change the testing, and then the cheating happens again while being undetected until the next cycle). how can we know the highest level of testing is defeated? guys (tyson gay for example) get popped, come back, dont' get popped, and perform at the same insane level. anyhow, the NFL testing is way less invasive, they do it less, and the players have lots and lots of wiggle room to get out of being popped. also, certain compounds and low enough amounts of others simply will not be detected. 2 -- the athlete performance is so so high. not just the obvious, giant jacked guys running fast and jumping high, but the less obvious stuff. guys tearing a biceps and being close to world class athletes again in the 5 months at the age of 30+, being able to play that hard and recover and do it again 20 times in a season, the strange combo of endurance, speed, strength, and size. other athletes that can hit three of those can't touch the other (weightlifters, throwers etc, can be as big as nfl linemen, stronger, as fast or faster at least in their specific sport, but cannot handle the volume, the running, the contact, and the grind, and they aren't clean either!) 3 -- the money. i know you were a LEO, if there was a drug that you could take that had some mild to moderate health considerations which let you be way better at your job, get paid better, and more likely to last longer and make it home, would you have taken it? i think most would. that's what PEDs are for nfl athletes. they have such a huge incentive to be even slightly better, and all the money to make it happen, which will make more money. and their job is not for longevity, they get a few years only and want to win. the number of ex OL and DL i see post retirement who basically vanished in terms of muscle mass is crazy. the only one i've seen who is still big (but way leaner) is joe thomas, and that doesnt' mean he isnt' on now and wasn't then, but for example tyler lewan, who had a 100MM contract or close to at one point, top 10 pick and i think made all pro at LT (and he got popped for PEDs at at least one point) is 6'7" and like 245 pounds now. he played north of 300. he did a thing on his podcast benching dumbells (maybe 100s) and benching a 135 bar for reps, and it was good highschool level, not nfl level. he also did a thing throwing footballs in a competition, and you can see his natural athletic ability and football training aren't gone, so it's not like his shoulder is shot or something, he's just way way way less strong than before.

i think cook gets 10-12 pretty easy. 15 is a big stretch, but not miles off. he's not an everydown player, marino points out he's 45% of snaps vs 75% that the top rbs are. if we lose johnson, he might be a 60% guy imo. if he could make his pass blocking very good to great instead of poor, he'd potentially be a near 70% of snaps guy. i think all of that caps his total value, which gets us right back to 10-12 IMO. if he holds out he's cooking (LOL, SO CLEVER) his own career, so i think he shows up at camp and they work something out. if he does hold out i'd be honestly shocked if mcbean played ball.

Im wondering at what age will Josh allen not have the strongest arm in the NFL. then, i'm wondering at what age will he not have a top 4 arm. to me, that's going to have the biggest impact on his game. brett favre was good until new orleans and greg williams scrambled his brains a bit, that was a long career for a run and gun guy. also, this thread reminds me -- i think mahomes is declining and i wonder if he has some habits like his dad that don't support long term success.

that article was awful. so wordy, and like, what info did it give? that martin doesn't want people to think he was bullied, that he just made up stories? it seems like martin wants to get rich in crypto, and being looked at as an oversized wimp who got bullied doesn't work with that, but he's not like revealing meaningful info, incognito still looks like a bully and a total psycho (and he has a rap sheet that could fill a book just from what i've heard about him on podcasts spoken by people who actually like him!), and martin is what, admitting he was being conniving and lied and went along w the bully narrative when it happened? it seems martin and the writer are using corporate strategy to rebrand himself without providing any new information.

at this point i'm convinced they have their guys, and not their guys.

I think a big element that leads our FO to overfitting positions, and possibly their concept of "scheme fit", on high draft picks is how in love they are with particular players we have on the team. cooper was mostly profiled as an ideal fit at nickel back. mcd and beane are in mad love with taron johnson, and they seem quite happy to be barely 1 deep at the position (lewis seems to well in dime but has been a disaster at nickel). I think the same applies for shakir -- i think they love him so much they didn't want to draft ladd at essentially the same position. both ladd and dejean are better than johson and shakir right now. also, it tells me that outside or RB and TE, slot wr is very replaceable in the nfl and shakir shouldn't get a big contract

im pretty sure if he holds out he gets traded quickly. one thing beane has done is chuck picks and cheap FA contracts at RBs, he clearly is not a big buyer of the star back model. if cook was a top pass blocker and played 75% of snaps id pay him that all day. we'd also prolly have a chip.

he fires a coordinator every year? he brings in more senior guys every year?

i think mcd did his best job yet this past season. he got the team closer to chip than he ever has, the team had real talent and injury issues, and even got into a little hole early at 3-2. he's also made moves, special team and defensive coaching changes, and quickly, after the season ended. he's never done anything close to bold before on the coaching front, so this is a bit of a watershed moment for him. he will be accountable for his hand picked GM and his own performance this next season. he's got to get to the bowl, and imo win it all to solidify himself. as posted above in this thread, if he goes two more seasons as hc he's the longest tenured coach to never make a bowl next to marvin lewis. given allen's historic greatness, and the d's total and pitiful collapse time and time again, his list of excuses will simply run out. this isn't any kind of fair or whatever, but it never will be, it's NFL football where ray lewis is celebrated as some kind of moral paragon and frank reich is struggling to get back to his prior level of employment. mcdermott can either be an all timer coach, or a bust off marvin lewis clone who squandered the greatest qb to play the game. it's not fair, it's winner take all.

diggs extension, in season trades for hines and douglas (i'll give a no grade on cooper, injury and he coulda been great!), knox extension, von contract (i supported it with some caution, but age/size/injury was too big a risk). Ford, basham, AJ, elam, and early returns on bishop, coleman, carter, kinkaid. those 13 moves were all misses. if 4 or 5 of those 13 were hits, we have fewer roster holes now and likely have at last one lomardi. somewhat ironically since we have been digging so deep into the draft in this thread, his extension and FA misses have been the real killers (money to diggs, von, combo of money and picks to hines and douglas, cost of knox contract). you can say what you want about drafting great, but free agency (trades as well, for picks) is where you hit the easy mode button and drop a ton of cash and go out and get the proven player you need right now. philly got barclay, baltimore got henry, and the rams have gotten to two chips buying free agents. getting those wrong hurts because instead of elam who you wish were a better player on a rookie contract, you get von nursing his knee on the bench, or diggs not even on the team smoking 15% of your cap. now, beane's misses in the past means he's got to have a crazy hit rate coming up, we need some of elam, kinkaid, coleman, carter to make huge strides and be the players we wanted them to be when they were drafted, our picks this season to be year one positive impact players, and some kind of free agent or trade moves to hit. mcd made his biggest offseason moves in coaching to date blowing out special teams and bringing in senior guys on D, beane has to make hay. i think getting one or two quality starter in the secondary or wr, rotational quality at DT in the draft, some good luck with the four above mentioned young guys having a break out season, and figuring out some kind of contract restructure (allen, von, knox, whoever else) in order to trade some picks for garrett and extend him are his necessary accomplishments to have the A+ offseason he needs to get this team to the promised land.