colin

Still makes my bet correct

Jarred Allen was 2 or 3 years younger and cost a 1 and 2 3s a while back. He was also the NFL sack leader at the time. Has Garret ever been the sack leader? Based on the above, I'd think you could get Garrett for a first, a second, and a later pick or picks in the following draft. I don't think Cleveland is looking to move him, but they might have to consider that kind of value, especially as they will need a QB and to rebuild some. I obv wish we got him prior to the deadline (altho hilariously maybe we don't lose a other game all season with him, which just means the Rams game, but we'd not even be the 1 seed!) but unless another top pass rusher is there, I'd do it this off season. I think there are a couple 1 techs we could sign who will be available to compliment Garrett, Ed, Groot as our starting four. MCDs system would look a lot better and our line backers would fill up the stat sheet. Not to mention our third down d would improve from what, 29 or so, to say 12-16 at the worst.

i think he likley gets around 10mm. he's young, proven, and noticeably better than the other backs we have had. we paid samuel like 7mm per for like .75 games worth of production. we pay dq about that much to be a literal jag. i think the bills ink cook for a 3 year 30mm type contract. if his production continues, he'll be a bargain for us at that price, and likely would not be as good on another team, so he'd be a bad value elsewhere, making that about the perfect contract.

the bookies have allen at like -300, i think they don't get things like this wrong very often, so i figure allen takes it. if it's the majority most out of 50, then i think he gets high 20s to low 30s, with a few to burrow and saquan, leaving lamar with 20ish votes.

Milano was out for most of the season last year, and so was Jones.

the DL and his fellow lb hasn't changed much since last season, has it? frankly, the biggest downgrade in our D was babbich vs mcd. we also lost some other assistant coaches. we lost our first OC to a HC job, fired the second who became an OC on another team, and there is talk our current OC might get lifted next season. frazer walked off and there isn't exactly demand for him, mcd was ok last season (made some shocking head coaching in game moves, clearly he can't multi task), and now we have 31st in the nfl on 3rd down babich. the problems with this team are all on one side of the ball, the side where they spend the picks and money.

I think we played worse OCs/QBs last season and teams didn't have tape on bernard. they do now, and the better guys who we played against were able to stop where he/the scheme is week and he wasn't able to fill out the stat sheet this season like he did last year. we have a drop off in safety play as well. hyde and poy were old and broken, but they knew the game cold and basically were in the right position which would force qbs to go underneath or backs to stay in their gaps allowing our LBs to just execute. if he gets healthy he's a decent player, but the stats last year sort of suggested all pro level ability and i think that's just not the case.

i can't remember a bills game i've felt less interest in than this one. and i'm sure i'll forget this one as well.

the biggest issue for the d is that we are so specific schematically in the back that we don't just draft/sign the most physically gifted guys available (upside is lesser talents like banford, a 6th round pick, and douglas can have solid performances at an uber premium position) so we are just uber dependent on the front four to cause havoc, but since we carry so many DL (seems OL too lately) we have lots of backups and no impact guys. carter doesn't look good since his injury, ed is up and down, when he's up he's good, and so are groot and von. i really think on real stud DE, if he didn't get hurt, would put the D over the top wrt being good enough to get an extra possession or two for the o and win it all.

honestly, they weren't bad vs the lions, they just totally fell apart when the back up back ups went in and the refs decided not to call anything. that's a concern of mine, our d gets mashed by physical teams that cheat all the time, we gotta be tougher.

for some reason, I think they are gonna play way more rock-paper-scissors and do more stunts, run blitzes, different fronts, and blitzes that aren't no pressure CB blitzes or both LBs in the a gap leading to an easy throw to an outlet for 20 yards. I just have this gut feeling that they will come out how they came out vs detroit, way more disguised, way more aggressive in spots, and most of all playing down field. in the past frazier had too many adjustments and reads trying to defend every blade of grass, and once a good qb figured it out, it was long sustained drives, one after another. I also think groot is playing for 9 figures (as mentioned above) oliver is playing for pride and legacy, and von to be the first player to win superbowls with 3 different teams (matt millen i think did, but i don't think he played on washington over us). i've been down on our d, fumbles (both ways) are a fluke stat that we are killing it in, and we are terrible on 3rd down. but for some reason i just think the d is waking up and mcd giving burn to bishop and williams tells me it's a little different this time and they might have some new tricks to show.

He's had a 200 yard game on every team he's played for. he'll have his for us in the playoffs.

there has to be a way to get him effectively involved.

im calling his floor on snaps this post season at 41.3%

the interesting bit is this data points out that the team's record is bang on average for the level that josh allen plays at, suggesting our D and special teams are replacement level over the past 5 years. the implication is there is a lot of room to improve, particularly given the consistency our QBR has had in the face of roster turnover, and going a different direction on D/special teams/coaching could yield us better results.

dawkins and brown are easily our most dirty and nasty players too. they get too many penalties, but they often pick fights and have never once turned one down. our interior line is good, but they get washed a bit more than i would like in the inside run game. they are elite in pass pro tho, being giant and long and strong and working as a unit helps there, but being nimble and athletic is a bit more necessary for dominant run blocking. KC's group does both, but their OTs are a big big step below ours. aside from lack of confidence in mcd and the d scheme/talent, the biggest thing i worry about for our team in the playoffs is big nasty rough physical dirty teams tend to get the better of us. hopefully the team will be inspired by dion and spencer's savagery this playoff.

brady's biggest failing this season vs last, and thus a great potential place for rapid improvement, is in not getting kinkaid up the field and open quickly. every other team seems to be able to get the tight end open between the hashes with little around him, but we just don't seem to do that. dalton's lack of inline blocking is prolly a part of that (can't just block his man a few times, and then sorta block him and release as easily) but there has to be a way to get a high talent TE open looking at the qb instead of trying to run back to the middle (which is how we seem to always use him).

i think this data shows brady has done a good job of getting max josh allen while running the ball more w rbs. also, the skill talent is way less now than in 2020. the line is better but the stats show josh turns pressures into escapes better than anyone else -- so net net i think the talent on o was better through the 2020 season than it is today. the consistency of JAs qbr given the total overall shortcomings of offensive talent around him (has he ever had as much talent as say the top 5 most talented offenses in the nfl, save qb?) says we have been a really good offensive football team, and our d, coaching, and special teams have been average in terms of wins and losses, and terrible in the playoffs (other data tells me that, mainly my eyes). brian billik was an offensive guru who got the ravens a chip, but he was ditched because his D there was great and his o stank for the most part. that organization would have fired mcd after 13 seconds, or at the latest after the cinci melt down. all mcd really has to do is get his d and dc to ball out for four games after next week, and then he's a legend.

I think they are gonna run von's legs ragged in the playoffs, groot and oliver too. i also expect we show different looks w the back 7. 4-3, taron kinda flexing between NCB and safety, maybe hamlin rapp and bishop in on a big nickel, stuff like that.

the argument seems to be better coverage w milano vs poor tackling. hard poison to pick, but good coaches will run the ball hard on us, denver/baltimore/kc/philly is nasty work with guys running hard.

The bills are the streakiest team in the nfl imo, it's just that JA and the O is good enough that while streaking they still only managed 3 losses, two on the D one on the O. if we can force turnovers, we are the best team in the nfl. we are the most game script dependent team since the manning led colts. imo it's not really about getting a lead, we had a massive lead vs detroit late and it still kinda sorta came down to the wire, and we had bad deficits vs NE and zona, but coulda won both of those games by an additional 7 if we really wanted to. i think its about the d finding some kind of answer and making the opponents waste downs or get penalties to get behind the sticks. we are so bad on d on 3rd down that we basically need a turnover, penalty, or the other team to make a bad error on 3rd down to get them off the field. that feels like a poor thing to hang your hat on, but we are 1st in fumbles lost both way, not sure if another team has done that through 16 games before. to our credit we are the best 2nd half team by a margin, and really it seems to be the 3rd quarter. we get ahead and just hold on, or put in the backups more than any nfl team i can remember. that's not to say we aren't totally in need of our O balling out, it's that we are in need of that plus the d finding stops or turnovers. if you look at our record this season, and prior seasons, we score 30+ in the vast majority of our wins. and of those wins and our losses where we scored a lot, i think we basically have to be the first team to get 30 points to win, unless weather or something insane makes it a smash mouth type game, that's what we need in the playoffs.

honestly, you might be right, but i think we need a gauntlet. there is an element of this team playing soft after easy wins. the jets game was an easy win, but it wasn't smooth to start with, and the new england game was an embarrassment.

the upside is how we have so many TDs on so few passing attempts -- that implies to me we have an extra gear if we mix it up and can be even more potent (which we saw vs the rams and lions). our yards per play is monster too. The downside is we are 1st in the NFL on Lost fumbles, Opponents Lost fumbles, and starting field position. There is a fair amount of randomness to those numbers, and I think the streak continued all season -- if we don't force a turnover we don't win.

Especially since KC has not looked good most of the time, and just seems to pull out close win after close win.

brady looks as good as dabol did (imo better, because it's less all over the place stuff and more systematic). I can't give him too much praise because of JA17. highest points per drive in NFL history is nasty work, and it's a team game, but Josh does more than anyone else ever IMO. Cooks and the line are a quality group, but I think we are all watching the Josh Allen show, and we know it. I do think (presuming the D coaches have found religion on this) pressing the matter more on D rather than letting teams have long drawn out drives is necessary. An extra two drives for the bills is basically worth a touchdown. That's crazy.