colin

Kinkaid has had an awful sophomore slump. I think he's not be healthy most of the year. He's got to get the magic back he had his rookie year, and hopefully today.

Small point of contention: that season we had success kicking really high and slightly short of the end zone. Forces a runback that falls to the 20 or less (default was 25 then instead of the way too far 30 that it is now) and burns serious time, like 5-8 seconds. IMO that was the play to make.

For us to win, we'll need either the TEs or the outside WRs to have big time games, and the DL and or the LBs to ball out. I'm going with outside WRs and linebackers. Single coverage outside will be there, so that's the best way to break the ravens monster d, and if the linebackers play like champions they will disrupt the run game and force Lamar to drop back pass in the bitter Western New York Cold. Of course, Allen and the oline have to continue their tradition of being total savages, but that goes without saying

Obviously it is team vs team, but QB is the most important position in team sports, and they've changed rules over time to emphasize that, so the narratives have influenced reality over time. The funny thing is that it is just so obvious that AP voters and chunks of the media really really want Lamar to be considered the best, but it's just not true. This season he has his best stats ever, but that along w 3k rushing as a team still got them 5 losses and they had the number 1 d in the NFL last season and the same for the last half of this season. If he really was MVP that team would do better when he is so much more productive but that's not the case. Even the Lamar apologists in the media when asked about how to stop the Ravens O emphasize stopping Henry. Henry is so obviously the MVP of that offense, media commentators have to spin themselves in circles to prop up Lamar for his 3rd first team all pro which he was awarded with a total of 2 playoff victories. It's just incongruent. Sneaking through the double speak is the true general consensus, that Allen is the best and most valuable player, but Baltimore has a better roster hands down when you remove the quarterback. I'm a Bills fan, so I'd much rather the bills win the next 3 games 4-3 and hoist the Lombardi than lose any of them but see Allen pad his all time playoff performance leading resume. My expectations are that playoff lamar shows up, Allen balls out Allen style, and McDermott has grown some heart and a brain and slaps together schemes to get the bills the W today, but it's gonna be exciting no matter what happens and totally heartbreaking if the game goes like week 4. As false and disingenuous as these narratives are, they really do add to the atmosphere and intrigue in the game and make sports even more of a fun distraction to our lives, so it's not all bad. Let's go bills, great day for a massive dub!

Commanders at Rams and Buffalo at KC, how does that sound for a conference championship weekend?

I really don't want DC to win the chip this year

This game is just electricity on offense and no power on d

That throw was Gofful

What a terrible defensive formation on that play, one defender over trips

Honestly, we have Pittsburgh to blame. I wrote a post earlier, obviously wrong, that pittz would hold on to win the division and lose to Baltimore in round 1, have Baltimore for beat KC, and then have tomorrow's game in Buffalo but I'm the AFC chip game.

This entire playoffs so far, maybe with the exception of bills over Denver, shows the truth that most games are lost more than they are won

It seems like Stroud is a slow processer and Ryans is a bit of a dummy

How did they not punt? Weak minded team

that's an interesting thing. so, mcd said one thing, special teams coach convinced him of another, and in the confusion the one guy who really needed to know didn't get told. so, the special teams coach didn't get the word out, but mcd a) didn't have the right idea in the first place, b) sort of sucked up some bandwidth arguing with his ST coordinator, but c) seemingly agreed to what at the time was the right call, showing he can adapt some. so who gets how much blame? either way, the defensive calls at the end were an utter disgrace. they acted like the chiefs had zero timeouts, when they had 3. just running regular d stops them from getting in FG range like 9 times out of 10.

nope, the media has shape my opinion zero. we need a chip, we don't have one. we feel really really close, but we did in the 90s too. that team lost 4 in a row in the super bowl, if this team falls tomorrow, it's 4 years in a row in the divisional round, 3 in a row at home. if it were only one year out of 8 in the playoffs, but it was a championship year, then im way way happier than 8 solid years and no hardware. it really is all or nothing, particularly for mcd. he'll go down as a shottenheimer who squandered josh allen, or an all time coach. that's it.

i don't get the controversy here. mcd as a head coach has had spectacular regular season success and very poor playoff success. we've won every home game vs a low seeded team in the first round, and beat the ravens in 2021 at home in a windstorm. that's basically what is expected after a strong regular season, which gives you the playoff entry and the home game to start. our record vs top seed teams and in the divisional round is awful. what's more noteworthy is that our playoff failures have come on the back of terrible defensive performances, and a good bit of our success have come in spite of bad d. that's mcd's calling card and that's where the resources have been pushed. now, history is being written all the time. we have a game tomorrow that has the potential to rewrite mcdermots bio. if the bills can handle the big bad nasty ravens he gets his team to the conference chip game after getting revenge on a great team who smoked us in the regular season. if we go out and beat kc in kc or even houston in buffalo (really good story lines on both of those games) and make the chip, he proves to the world and himself he can run w the big dogs. if he wins the bowl (which barring catastrophic injuries is much easier to do at that point than get to the bowl from where we are) he's enshrined himself as an all time coach. i think some people don't want to admit the big stakes games still mean winner takes all. that's how nfl football works. you need to win it all at least once to get counted. mcd has not shown the ability to do that, and he's not improved on what his failings were in prior years, so people here don't have confidence he can win the chip. well, he's got his team where they need to be this year, so he can go out and get it done and make us admit we were wrong. everyone who were riding for mcd will be proven quite right. As of now, clearly he's not delivered. im an on record mcd detractor, and i don't think he has what it takes to win a chip. I do have to admit, this team right now is super balanced on O, allen is a monster with a run game to boot, and the d while being hot cheeks for much of the regular season showed some improve at times and for the playoffs has one game where they were monsters. the same way the nfl is all or nothing, i think mcd's future is all or nothing. he's gonna win it this year (or at least come close to) or as mikie says it's 4 consecutive divisional losses, 3 in a row at home, to 3 different teams. That's a total mirror image of the 90s bills, except they lost 4 consecutive games to 3 different teams in the super bowl. imagine if 3 of those super bowls were at home and we lost them, would that make you say those bills teams had the coach they needed? that 90s team was second best in the biggest game of the year 4 times in a row, if we drop this one we will be second best in the most exciting game of the year 3 wins away from the chip. mcd has some real high stakes tomorrow.

i look at beating baltimore as breaking a giant chain. if you can't break one part of it, it just crushes you, if you can, the chain loses connection and it's much much easier to beat. not saying they get blown out, but they either look like they simply cannot be stopped, or they look like they simply cannot get to the endzone and win. they don't seem to have the hot and cold streaks like we and so many other teams do. obviously they are built this way. they play max advantage w the rpos and henry and jackson, dirty physical o line and d, extra linemen and multiple tight end sets. they had no wrs on the pitch vs pittz for like half of their plays. on d, the press up front, are huge, grab and rough, and show multiple pressure and blitz when they feel like it. it's easy to see where the massive confidence in this team comes from, they can pretty much beat any other team in an actual fist fight. to me, if it's cold and windy enough to impact the passing game a little, it's advantage baltimore. both passing games will be slightly impacted, but the run is solid and they are way ahead of us there (vs our d instead of our o vs their d). if it's freezing cold and frozen and the ball feels like a rock and there are real winds or gusts, it's advantage buffalo. in a real miserable cold or windy day, lamar will simply not be able to get the ball very far with accuracy, and needs a wide based given his short stature to generate force to throw. the run game will be less impacted, but allen can still lace a dime in a frosty hurricane. if we have a game like that, like our 2021 game, then the bills d goes base most of the time, surfs on the edges to stop rpos, and just dares them to pass while keying on the tight ends because that's what they got. on the other side, baltimore still has to defend teh pass, and if they don't it's going to hurt them. as big as they are, baltimore plays nickel a lot too. detroit showed us that if you play base even vs heavy formations vs blo it hurts.

i know the other poster solved the mystery of cam lewis for you, but the above is a HUGE departure from regular season stuff. now, our D was mad fresh because denver had the ball for a cup of coffee, but it shows we are riding hard w the best guys we got in the post season. i kinda worry that they might be as conditioned as they'd need to be, but no on is vs baltimore and the front 7 should have some really fresh legs going into this.

you are 100% in that there are HUGE concerns with our D. to me the difference in our team now vs 2022 (soft team, saffold had no business wearing an nfl jersey) vs 2023 are the following (i'm ignoring 2022): the d : we are not a total mash unit of utter trash. the guys who playing in the playoffs, especially vs kc were not NFL worthy. Von was Non (injury), benford was out, douglas was honestly too hurt to play at all, safety was banged up, dq was not right, and our linebackers were not even roster worthy (dodson could pop some, and williams came in late vs kc and got our only stop of the day, but aj klien couldn't even run). on d now, vs 2022 and 2023, we at least show different looks, different formations (the 3 2 almost sorta bear front we showed vs kc) and some different concepts. it's still not great. the special teams: bass is less snake bit than he was before, and the absence of calling that total abortion of a fake punt w hamlin (im going out on a limb saying it won't be called) means they will suck less the offense: the oline is such a gang of angry yetis this year vs the last two it is silly. just giant mutants who can line up and fist fight with the nfl, playing good football and healthy (let's hope anderson gets three cows worth of needles in his calf to be bionic). brown had surgery after last season, torrence was hitting a rookie wall, morse was basically shot. skill talent: we had harty and that stiff from miami, and that old man back murray. we had no play gabe (was he hurt too?) and washout malcontent diggs (just a late and post season zero point zero). now we have hollins (who is actually clutch), both TEs are healthy, cook is en fuego, sadly davis is banged up, TY is a total monster in the passing game, and collins and cooper are (shockingly) an upgrade to the diggs and davis of that game (again, did davis play?). the threat to actually line up and run a fast halfback into man or zone and push people around. and perhaps most of all, the control of the game by josh, no turnovers. so, baltimore is favored on the road and whipped us before, but i strangely have confidence in this team for next sunday at home. I could very well be wrong, but i honestly see us winning this and looking the part on all phases of the game.

I'm a fellow skeptic and McD h8r, but the difference I see this year is our Oline/running game and our D is willing to play man to man, 4-3, and be aggressive even after letting up a deep TD pass like we did vs Denver. I think baltimore can be beaten by forcing them to pass more than they usually do, and to control the ball some on O. they have a great run D, but I really think a well schemed run game featuring cook and josh will be effective. obviously there will have to be magic allen plays and efficient passing, but big on big and moving piles will take the bully right out of them. on D it's a much worse story, but we will have to discard nickel when needed (which might be a lot) and basically not allow big henry runs. baltimore is a power team but a sloppy one, they get holding and false start and illegal formation penalties, and if the bills D stays on them on 3rd and long they will get stymied. with the exception of the first play of the game, our rag tag back up D (cam lewis and raw rookie bishop were left out there along w specter and that other LB who's name i didn't even bother to learn) kind of did enough. bad 3rd down conversions (two of them) on the first drive lead to the 14 points scored early, but they gave away a fumble and had to punt a few times as well. if the O shows up like it has in all but 2 or 3 games (and none at home, really) then we can have some pressure on the baltimore O and make lamar drop back and pass without trickery. I'm a fellow skeptic and McD h8r, but the difference I see this year is our Oline/running game and our D is willing to play man to man, 4-3, and be aggressive even after letting up a deep TD pass like we did vs Denver. I think baltimore can be beaten by forcing them to pass more than they usually do, and to control the ball some on O. they have a great run D, but I really think a well schemed run game featuring cook and josh will be effective. obviously there will have to be magic allen plays and efficient passing, but big on big and moving piles will take the bully right out of them. on D it's a much worse story, but we will have to discard nickel when needed (which might be a lot) and basically not allow big henry runs. baltimore is a power team but a sloppy one, they get holding and false start and illegal formation penalties, and if the bills D stays on them on 3rd and long they will get stymied. with the exception of the first play of the game, our rag tag back up D (cam lewis and raw rookie bishop were left out there along w specter and that other LB who's name i didn't even bother to learn) kind of did enough. bad 3rd down conversions (two of them) on the first drive lead to the 14 points scored early, but they gave away a fumble and had to punt a few times as well. if the O shows up like it has in all but 2 or 3 games (and none at home, really) then we can have some pressure on the baltimore O and make lamar drop back and pass without trickery.

looking at the game logs, to beat the ravens you basically have to stop henry from breaking a long scoring run. if lamar attempts 30 passes the ravens chances of winning fall off of a cliff. the d is going to have to really sell out to stop the run while not getting sliced up over the top. if babich and mcd go into their bag and pull out a way to make money without being in nickel, i'll give them all kinds of flowers. now, the best way to keep henry from breaking one is to score touchdowns and possess the ball a lot. this could be a 30+ total rushes game from josh and cook. baltimore's aggressive d is monster vs the run, so it will take some real trickery to get it done. the other low(ish) hanging fruit is they don't defend the deep stuff well at all. i think cooper and coleman will have to have a game, and i could see the tight ends being used how the pats uses to use them to just stress the heck out of the second level.

sometimes i think you guys on this board are sarcastic cold callous bills fans. but other times, like now, i KNOW you are sarcastic cold callous bills fans and this is why i keep logging on to this website. top work, team!

surprised me too. i guess when you think about it, so many cold weather games in the nfl for teams not in ultra cold places (bmore is not ultra cold IMO) are on sunday at 1pm when the sun is out, things have warmed up a bit, etc. the real cold, as we all know, kicks in later in the day and especially as the wind picks up. im hoping the thumps hurt just that much more for lamar and slow him down in buffalo. to beat them we will have to out physical them on at least one side of the ball, i'm thinking our OL will tap into their inner fat child bullying their tormentor and ware down the d in the cold unforgiving stadium. van noy ate brown's lunch at times in week 4, I hope brown wakes up every morning remembering that and seeking vengeance.

in terms of sheer rareness, a DT who can plug up on runs and rush the passer is the biggest unicorn -- getting a man that big, strong, fast, agile, mobile, flexible, resilient, tough, etc etc is just not common. like, the truth of the matter shines through, really talented guys who get out of bed 330# and fast and strong are just way too rare. you can tell dareous or haynesworth or peters ( the guy on the panthers, i think nebraska player, him and his brothers are from up the street from where i live!) they have to focus and be smart and work hard, but the reality is they are desired because of their extremely rare physical traits. they can party, do drugs, be lazy, have attitudes and there is still no one who can do what they do. on DL there is also a mentality that is different than on the OL. OL have to work as a unit, protect, be consistent. they can't change the game as a result of one of their individual plays, they need others to also do their job, and it takes timing and practice and such. a sick DT can blow past his man off the snap and destroy a drive in under 2 seconds. also, DL have to smash and get smashed and still run down the ball. a true impact DT might be the most rare person in the NFL. it's also a super miserable job. concussions, fights, not being a star like the qb or WR, even DEs get more shine. aaron donald is often said to be the best ever (if he isn't, he's like top 5 at the absolute worst) was on top of the world and recognized, and a workout warrior, and a loved teammate, and paid a ton, and he hung it up with some clear tread still on the tires. so, i'm not saying MD isn't a sub moron (he is, he's literally too dumb and immature to exist as a functioning human even tho he's a young millionaire in america), but it's gotta be hard to convince a guy to straighten up and fly right when the truth is his god given talent is why anyone gives a crap about him and the moment he can't physically maul nfl giants on a regular basis he will be shipped out with a quickness.

i don't think the bills ever get heavier than 4-3 replacing TJ w DW. playing nickle vs an extra olineman is pretty foolish, especially vs the ravens. their FB is 300, and henry is giant too. well, maybe im wrong, maybe the bills might go 5 2 4, but i'd think that 5th lineman might be DW lined up along the DL, but being a bit of a joker, changing gaps, spying lamar, etc. ow it would have to be aj, groot, dquan, oliver, smoot for a heavy jumbo line. im not sure aj there is a better misdirection run defender than DW, but who knows.