colin

the criticism of being over conservative isn't based on run vs pass calls, but on being predictable, not doing things to stress the defense, and not rolling the dice with the ball in allen's hands extending plays. I think they could have broken pattern, used TY and bunch sets, misdirection, motion, and roll outs or called runs for allen to steal some yards. they did pass, but it was small ball stuff, and the ravens were all over that. if either of the first two drives in the 3rd broke a medium play for like 12-20 yards on the first 3 snaps I think we get more aggressive on the + side of the field and get 7. that might have been enough to have henry not be a factor one drive early, which was the drive he trucked us for an easy 7. we won the game and didn't have any toxic plays on O, which is awesome, but there was a window in the game to lock it up early and i'm pretty sure behind closed doors in coaches meetings the bills brain trust is agreeing they need to stress the d in those situations to stick the dagger in and twist it early.

im convinced the only way we lose this game is if our defensive injuries nuke us. our EPA per play on O and D are superior to the Chiefs, and i think the monkey of playing lame duck vanilla on D is over. it's possible bad LB play and our secondary injuries bury us, i don't think so tho. we had 27 points vs baltimore, on really low yardage and frankly it woulda been more of we needed more on the last drive, and if we needed to hammer it in on the prior drive where we kick the FG. we will have more than that vs the cheifs. I don't think KC puts up 30+ on us.

the giants team that won over the pats in 2011 had very few blue chip guys. they went on the road and beat san fran who had what might be the greatest (qb aside) roster i've ever seen on a football team. we have one 2nd team all pro and 2 total pro bowlers and beat a team w 9. this is a murky way of measuring a team IMO. i think you need to win match ups, but we have advanced stats that tell the story better (not completely) than some guy's opinion on some general formula. I'd say we can win the super bowl because our Run O and QB match up on everyone, and our d is willing to do enough to get our O the ball.

we have to confuse mahomes and impact him as much as possible. if he's left comfortable he won't be stopped. they have weak tackles, so the pressure from the edge will have to be strong. we have to be strong in the run game too. that said, if we can run the ball and control the clock, wear their d down and force them to press, that's our best way to hurt their O. we were good but not great with the middle 8 vs baltimore. vs kc we have to be better.

i feel confident and nervous for this game all at the same time, a strange over stimulated zen state of both eerie calm and quiet panic. to the point made above about the lines -- i think we have the best ol in the nfl. I think philly is sick, and kc is good in the middle, but i just feel like the bills have the hot hand and the right mix of size and talent. a strong run game with multiple backs and being able to involve josh as a runner is not something i think any remaining NFL d can handle. kc and philly have high level ds, but they are nickel base teams and can't dominate lanes with 6 guys like the ravens do. cook is a champion from college, davis is a hungry rookie with power, and Ty is IMO our best overall matchup weapon. I think cook gets 100+ and we get 200+ rushing as a team. i've always said allen with a run game is a scary sight, it's hard to score points on us when our O is on the field chewing up yards on the ground and mashing people up.

i know the guys in philly and detroit get the all pro love and have the monster contracts, but i think spencer brown is the best RT in the NFL. he was murdering guys with blocks in the ravens game, and that team is the most intimidating in the NFL. we might see the bills identify opportunities to the outside vs kc and take advantage, quietly allen has been on a heater when he throws far for the past month, but i fully expect the bills to run hard and effectively on KC all day. we might see allen throw over 8 man boxes in the next two games. you love to see it.

i don't get how the allegations that the nfl doesn't want to draft black quarterbacks gets any play. maybe warren moon being over looked, but that was 40+ years ago. warren moon finishing college was closer to the end of WW2 than it was to today, it's not exactly recent. even in the 90 akili smith was drafted super high, and he stank out loud. didn't black qbs go 1 and 2 this last draft and the draft before it? polian was obv wrong saying lamar should be a wr (lol) but rich gannon was told he should be a wr too, and i think he won an mvp at some point. as for trubisky being drafted ahead of watson and mahomes (again, lol, oops) that was obv a terrible pick, but that rb out of LSU went ahead of mccaffery so you could wave some kind of racial bias flag on that too if you give the evidence the same weight. i really think nfl gm's and coaches have biases about players and what they can do and so on (was it the miami coach who said he wouldn't draft moulds with the last pick in teh draft?), but the majority of the NFL are black and it's a crazy idea that nfl gm's under draft them at any position, not since like the 80s or something anyhow. maybe clark does have a racial bias against josh in favor of lamar, but i suspect he's just catering to his audience who he figures want to hear that. also, the realest bias i see from ex players are for guys who were studs and physical freaks early on. so guys who were 5 stars or were bigger faster stronger than everyone else in college, and guys who won in college and went to the biggest and best schools since ex players all wanted to be those guys in their formative years, and most of the best players in the nfl were more like those guys than josh (late bloomer, no schollies, poor college team, raw, etc). to me, the position that requires physical freak gifts more than any other is DT, especially nose. and the two former bills who tell the story better than anyone to me is Pat Williams (one of my favorite bills ever) and Start lalalala (SP). star was legit the most talent player coming out of the draft one year, but just so obviously didn't love football and never really worked hard to be the best. he coulda gottan a d1 scholly after 6 weeks at a football camp having never seen a ball before, he was just gifted. pat williams was a later round pick and kinda had to show a lot of flashes to get starts on buffalo (he was behind insane talent tho, no slight there). he went on to be honestly IMO a top 5 guy at the position ever. i think ex players always remember star splitting a double team at age 19 vs two future nfl DL and just one arming the RB into a concussion and remember how he was a force of nature more than they remember a guy like pat who was overlooked but ended up being an all timer. narratives are so powerful they change people's memories sometimes.

aside from maybe philly and their oline and running back, the biggest advantage any team left playing now has over their opponents is the bills with the oline and run game. they didn't even call designed runs for allen that much on sunday. it took the ravens coming out in the second half to not trucked on a drive (if the phantom holding call never hits we score another tub there and win the game in the first half). and they are tops vs the run. denver got steam rolled. kc is a nasty team w some nasty d players, but the physical and mental advantage right now is bills oline. if we use the three back to their strengths and also run allen, or at least roll him out to threaten a scramble, they will give up gains. we've got to do what we did vs the ravens and make them stop it before we stop going to the well (i say this thinking brady was too conservative to start the 3rd quarter). kc has a fast aggressive d, but they are honestly like ours in that they play nickel and are undersized up front. they can be run on. if they figure that out, it will come to brady being in his bag and allen hitting some deep passes, but we are on a bit of a streak of success there tbh. if cook goes over 100 and we have 150+ as a team we win this game controlling it.

i think they are going to run and target worthy and kelce, scheme them open. the d has to be disciplined and hit mahomes (while avoiding flags, gulp) early and often. kc has trash tackles, that's how we make their day long. a turnover early is important and helpful. on the other side, it's about dominating at the LOS. mashing them up and running hard. cook is our all around every down weapon. 100 yards for him and kc has a steep uphill climb. TY on his big breaking plays and ray davis in power runs too. also, i think the bills must be creative on O. they weren't creative enough vs baltimore and vs kc it's necessary. huge huge game.

ya, could be. I think that game was josh and the o going off and just destroying an over matched opponent. to me the two games we had this year were better because the coaches had a specific plan and it went that way, but i get your point.

we went into that game the same way that DC is going into philly. upstart team, young qb, on a heater, all about offense, going further than expected, crazy skill talent, etc. aside from experience, seasoning, and all of that, this year we have the best combo of OL, QB, and Backs in the NFL. it feels insane to say that when the ravens are in the NFL, and henry is head and shoulders better than anyone we have at RB, but we have 3 of them and lamar was frequently impacted while josh might have been once. we need to be healthy on D, and we need our better players to show up and show out just like they did the first two games, and we need a defensive game plan and good play calling and execution and all that, but in terms of lining up, punching people in the face, and imposing will no body can do that like what we have right now on O. i fully expect us to have a lot of trouble getting kc off the field like we did with baltimore, and i also expect us to create some turnovers to compensate for that. this game is going to be won by the O line being the most dominant unit on the field and putting in body work on KC all day. Allen will run on fools, and make allen plays as is needed. i'll call it now, if james cook can hit 100 yards we walk on this

the o was super conservative and the d basically played rock paper scissors. i think it was a well coached game, and the three biggest errors in coaching/planning came on O 1 -- running qb power on 3rd and 2 from the 2. a tush push, or a less predictable play from shotgun was in order. when all you need is 2 and you have power up front, don't give up an advantage by going into shotgun unless you have a good trick. 2 -- first drive out of the half. they should have shown a prior formation and play actioned into something. those type of transitional moments are where you take those shots. a big gainer on 1st down would have potentially broken the ravens, and a td on that drive would have made the game easy. 3 -- second drive in the 2nd half -- again, the ravens were aggressive up close and had a shell behind, a creative play or qb roll out, whatever would have worked. TY Johnson eats those kinds of formations for breakfast. joe marino had a breakdown on D. when we blitzed vs when we didn't was shocking. blitzing is when all the good stuff happened, not blitzing is when all the bad stuff happened. also, on that last drive i think our guys were gassed but they advanced the ball vs linemen who wouldn't make the roster of most playoff teams. maybe there was a way to rotate into having better players out there, but that's tough. this was the second best coached game of the playoffs ever for our staff IMO. the denver game was the best (bad play got them down early, like this one, and they corrected. denver was beat by about 4 mins into the 3rd quarter). we gotta keep it up vs kc.

I do think the bills were too conservative at times. they become a bit predictable in the start of the 3rd quarter, they should have broken pattern a little bit, i think TY johnson should have been involved more, but that D is a bad match up for us. The bills are obviously more conservative on o than they were before, we were what, mid 20s in pass attempts? but one thing i think of is: where is our best talent on O? reflexively we think we have josh, he's the goat, so we have to pass the ball all day. well, if you go top to bottom talent on our O, it's josh, then something like dawkins/brown, cook, torrence, and a mix of other OL, backs, and maybe a TE with one of our Wrs thrown in. all the talent is around the ball, our ol qb and back talent is just a lot better than our outside talent. if it's not the best ol in football, it has been playing like it. and outside of allen, cook is easily our most dangerous offensive weapon, and our other 2 backs are live players too. so if you look at it that way, it kinda makes sense that we don't pass as much, especially when allen can be in the run game himself. its strange to see josh be a game manager, but if he's not throwing to consistently effective targets down the field, it makes a lot of sense.

barely over 6 yards a target and a 60% catch rate won't get him more involved. I think that's the story in a nut shell. the way our O runs, individual players don't get a lot of chances to get hot. and as said above he's not a mauler in the blocking game. i think a guy like likely in baltimore would be a monster contributor for the bills. huge and can move around and get open and catch. kincaid will get more chances to make an impact, but he's gotta be more efficient.

you're the kind of guy who goes to a destination wedding and people complain about how much they paid to fly and hotel and paid half and get a free breakfast, aren't you?

keeping to your theme of 4 minute drives, the bills clearly aim to maximize the middle 8 of the game. they were perfect on the first part of that (last 4 min of the 1st half) but failed kinda badly on the second part (our first drive in the 3rd). I thought the play calling was too conservative coming out, but after seeing the end zone angle of that knox screen, it was there all day and he might broken a big gainer. obv elated we won the game, but if he moves on that one play, we might set up another drive like the one in the first half and gotten us ahead 28-10. that likely subtracts the run drive they trucked us in the 3rd for a tub, so it mighta changed the net score by 14 in that quarter, making this a walk away game.

the d is not great, nor did it have a great game vs baltimore by most measures. what it did was turn up the variance on baltimore, but did so generally limiting big plays. it's a high stress way to play, but perhaps the best way for us to face baltimore. basically, we played to maximize negative plays for baltimore, but did so within a scheme that was built to greatly limit the very big gainers. if hamlin found depth on the pass that got to the 2 yard line, that might have been another pick or at least an incomplete, so there was a little meat on the bone. the way i looked at it, the way we were playing D, there was nearly no chance we could stop baltimore on 4 downs, but we could send them backwards or even take the ball away on one single play. that ended up being the story on 3 turnovers (two were good forced ones, one was just a crazy effort play by bernard), and we stopped them on 2 2 point attempts, and that was just enough to win the game. on the other side, we kind of played the opposite. every single play was run with the intent of not making a mistake. i thought it was too conservative at times for sure, but that ball was kept fort knox safe. the play on 3rd down from the 2 where josh ran it out of shotgun, we have run that play like 50 times this season. baltimore knew 100% what we were doing and it had very little chance of getting past them if they didn't make a mistake, but it also had a near zero fumble chance, so i get why they ran it. im worried about our d still, worried about being too conservative on O, and worried about injuries on d, but our coaches have shown more adaptability than before so that's nice.

it's pithy one liners and quick gags, but done in meme cut up format. think of the jokes from airplane (which is obviously much better than this slapped together stuff) but in a silly social media memecentric cut up format. the weird al stuff above is a good analogy, if you think about how robin williams would rip off stream of consciousness stuff, kinda a mix of all of that.

i knew a GI in 'Nam who went AWOL and was found in Cambodia. The locals called him the Tush Plow. It was an ugly scene, I suggest you use a different name.

that's crazy. so are you looking at market place apps or doing footwork and calling people and such? if the snippets of injurie reports i've been reading here go left, we are going to have to run the heck out of the ball. even if we are healthy on d, running the ball well would be a big big help. it's been talked to to death, but we basically need to win the turnover battle. running the ball well is a great way to shift those odds in our favor.

oh dear, are we mash unit again for KC? that would be just a horrible let down.

i legit thought it was a horrible check, i didn't see the replay because i was texting to other fans and whining in the game thread (not sure what the replay showed). iirc, is that the one allen was flipping out at someone about? im thinking now he was screaming and knox for not picking up the free 10 and potentially more yards in front of him.

good find. holy crap knox was just awful on that, the angle on the camera shows how awful his move was. he had room on the right and if he breaks a tackle it is a big one.

man, i really hope we aren't a mash unit at nickel, safety, and lb again facing KC. our smaller defenders always get crunched late in the year. even tho I'm a big fan of milano, and he and von actually had some really good plays, some of the contracts are why we have to these guys are why we have rapp and hamlin as our starting safeties and shakir is our offensive number 1 on a late round rookie contract.

our d, especially the dl, was just flat out gassed. the two horrible drives to start the second by the O and the trucking by the ravens run game on the one long td drive to henry took what they had left out of them. im still not a big fan of the mcd scheme on d, but the full picture here is that our starters are just about average or slightly better, and the back ups just aren't good enough. one thing i liked to do when i was handicapping games is look at the lineups and ask which players on team a would start on team b and vice versa. for these teams i think maybe groot (maybe not), one or in a stretch 2 of our OL, and benford would be their cb2. i think josh is better than lamar, but they wouldn't start him over lamar, particularly with their scheme. such a massive disparity in talent.