colin
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Posts posted by colin
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We are simply not as good as they are.
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This defensive secondary is horribly over matched
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Not much at corner
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It's so hard to stop this team on short yardage. Crazy
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Gosh that drive was a struggle.
Happy w results, but it looks like last year, we go nuts to get scores, and they walk on o. Gotta crank the coaching up right here and disrupt them
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Just now, Mikie2times said:
I was surprised, as you said, I’m about 99% sure he goes for that in the regular season. What is he worried about? Things snowballing? If we missed that kick it would have been an avalanche.
I think he's worried his QB is shaky.
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Big kick. Allen has thrown two gifts for the d and fumbled a snap already, he's gotta just calm down and get those nerves under control. We need miracles on d
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MCD needs to show he can not get owned by Andy in the playoffs.
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Not excited w the start tbh
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Let's goooooooo
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I did a bit of a deep dive on epa stats and some situational stuff.
Bills are ahead of KC on offensive and defensive epa. Bills are not great on passing, but are solid on run d EPA. On o, the bills are too like 5 on pass EPA, and number two next to Washington of all teams on run EPA. DC lost their best lineman, so I think they will be much worse tomorrow. KC really just does super well on 3rd down. That's really the only place they shine statistically.
The teams aside from Buffalo a the best combined lines are Denver, Baltimore, Detroit and Philly. We beat Detroit albeit their dl was down men, we smoked Denver, and did just enough to beat Baltimore. We should have a chance to test our mettle vs Philly in the chip. I really think our dl can impact mahomes enough given how their blocking is not good, and they won't have an answer to the run game.
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the bills, since the age of mahomes and allen, have faced KC 9 times. The bills are 4-1 in the regular season, 0-3 in the play offs.
the bills have won 4 consecutively vs kc, one each year, in the regular season. after our second win, we were eliminated by cinci on a day we would have lost to a pop warner team (allen got dumped, the story with the newscaster and such and such), so we didn't face each other that year.
in the 2021/2022 season, we beat them in kc, and lost the 13 seconds game in kc. in 2023/2024 we beat them in kc, lost to them in buffalo (diggs drop, missed FG, forced one punt all day, 7+ per play for them on O). the pattern most repeated is that we win the regs, they win the playoffs.
the correct pattern, which involved home and away and the the afc championship game, is thus: in the 2020/2021 season, we lost in buffalo to kc in the regular season, and then we lost to kc in kc in the afc chip game. this year, we beat kc in buffalo in the regular season, and will beat kc in kc in the afc championship game. it is written, it is known.
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33 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:
If Buffalo can run against the Ravens, they are going to decimate the Chiefs. Everyone thinks this is going to be a Josh Allen superstar game. He’s going to have to make a couple huge plays, but I really hope to God that Brady doesn’t stray away from what’s been winning them games the whole postseason. Cook/Davis/Johnson need to be utilized in the run & pass game. Our RBs are by far our most stacked position. Don’t abandon that game plan unless they find themselves down 2 TDs or more.
The one thing I DO want the Bills to do is play action pass on their first play to catch KC off guard.
I think this is basically it. A bills win has us running with physical force all game, using misdirection and motion and different formations and six linemen and tight ends to wear down their d front. Play action behind that will lead to big plays and constantly stress them.
Philly has the accolades but I think the best squad of linemen in the NFL wears the buffalo logo on Sundays.
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It's the Dline for me. banged up in secondary, milano might not be 100%. DL has to do enough to disrupt the run, and MUST impact mahomes. in our playoff losses to mahomes, he's been sacked like 0 or 1 times, and not turned the ball over once. 75% completions, he's eaten us. every regular season game we do well, we impact him. he gets mashed off the edge, oliver comes to life and steals some plays off the snap, and mahomes throws picks.
the one reason to me why this will happen is the DL has been on a heater lately, and the DC and mccoach have left their comfort zone behind them. they dial up man, have run stunts and put guys in different positions (oliver at end, hamlin on the edge blitzing, milano blitzing, 3 2 6 dime, all of it).
similar to our win over baltimore, the bills need to run the ball, get a lead, put pressure on the chiefs. the difference is baltimore could run or pass on us at will, kc can't, they are decidedly middle of the pack on O. our OL is absolutely on tilt, and we will run the ball and keep josh clean snap by snap. it's gonna be trench warfare, and kc has real problems at OT and have put guards out there to try to protect mahomes. their dl is nasty at the top, but isn't deep really. the bills DL is not great but playing on fire lately (for them) and the OL are absolute disgusting yetis. the same way our small nickel base had a huge disadvantage vs baltimore in the run, the chiefs do as well vs our team. their run d has fallen off of a cliff, and we have coleman, kinkaid, and brown in this game which we didn't before, when we beat them but didn't run for ish. coleman blocking on the edge, kinkaid running routes getting fast lbs away from teh ball, and brown just dominating karloftis on power runs will be a welcome and repeated sight as we trample them.
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this is Cole's chance to become a bills legend.
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he got himself a mcdermott situation. he picks the gm and the power dynamic is shifted in his favor. it might buy him a scape goat if they don't have cap to sign and keep talent given how underwater that team is on the qb contract. if he makes that qb turn around and look solid, he has like 3 years of run room. not a terrible spot IMO.
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10 hours ago, Rew said:
Agree with the few voices of sanity here. There was nothing more conservative about our second half gameplan (compared to first half), and the idea we came out running repeatedly is blatantly false. People need to go rewatch the 2nd half, or look at some drive logs and take notes. I think many people are as guilty of making up a narrative as the media.
We passed 7 out of our first 9 plays. This small dataset represents most of the 3rd quarter, half of our 2nd half drives, and had zero repeat runs. We didn't execute. We picked up 1 first down on 3 sets of downs with a couple of drops, slightly misplaced balls, and good defensive plays.
By the time we got to our 3rd drive it had closed to 21-19 with 1 quarter left to play. The smart drive here is to eat up 6-8 minutes and score a touchdown. We executed a 4:30 drive that got us to field goal range. This consisted of 4 passes and 5 runs. The runs were (11,-1,4,7,2). There were no back to back runs in the same set of downs. Likewise there were no Run-Run-Pass sets. The set of downs that we stalled on consisted of 2 consecutive missed passes. While we ended up stalling in the passing game, this drive was on track to be exactly what was needed at that point. We were moving he ball and eating up clock. While it didn't look easy, we could only blame ourselves for missing plays that were there. The play calling was not holding us back.
4th drive... We get the ball with 8:40 left, up by 5 near mid field. It's hard to kill 8 minutes on a 54 yard drive, so we start out just trying to move the ball with our normal offense. Pass for 12, Run for 8, pass for 5, pass for 8, pass for 1.
We are now at 15 passes, 8 runs in the 2nd half. We have come out pass heavy for 1.5 quarters and are averaging 4YPC on the ground with 3.86 yards per play in pass game. This was our standard 2nd half attack that looked sluggish because we were playing a good defense and were not executing at our best for those 1.5 quarters.
I think this point is when the strategy actually changed and some debate could actually make sense. We are now at the Bal 21 with 6 minutes left. McD does the math and says to Brady "we have to score here. I want you to punch it in, but even if we don't let's see if we can burn some clock and get an easy FG.". We manage to burn another 2.5 minutes and two Baltimore timeouts. Runs of 8,2,3,5,0. The call on 3rd from the 2 was a Josh option. We had our 2 minute drill touchdown of first half on a similar/same play and multiple first down pickups on a similar call. This was not a conservative call, it was our best call to punch it in. We just "went to the well" too many times.
At the conclusion of meaningful play calling, we ended with 15 passes and 13 runs, including the 5 consecutive runs to kill time at the end. Like I said, I don't agree with many of the takes and dialogue surrounding the 2nd half. I saw the exact opposite of a conservative shell. People are confusing the results with what was called.
I hated the results. I wish we had executed better or had called something different that was executed better. But just because what they called didn't work out doesn't give us justification to blame it on Brady or McD. Call out Josh, Knox, shakir, Kincaid. Every one of them missed a key 1st down in the 2nd half. Or just realize you can get an unfortunate streak of 2 drives that just don't work because you are playing a good team.
the criticism of being over conservative isn't based on run vs pass calls, but on being predictable, not doing things to stress the defense, and not rolling the dice with the ball in allen's hands extending plays. I think they could have broken pattern, used TY and bunch sets, misdirection, motion, and roll outs or called runs for allen to steal some yards. they did pass, but it was small ball stuff, and the ravens were all over that. if either of the first two drives in the 3rd broke a medium play for like 12-20 yards on the first 3 snaps I think we get more aggressive on the + side of the field and get 7. that might have been enough to have henry not be a factor one drive early, which was the drive he trucked us for an easy 7.
we won the game and didn't have any toxic plays on O, which is awesome, but there was a window in the game to lock it up early and i'm pretty sure behind closed doors in coaches meetings the bills brain trust is agreeing they need to stress the d in those situations to stick the dagger in and twist it early.
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im convinced the only way we lose this game is if our defensive injuries nuke us.
our EPA per play on O and D are superior to the Chiefs, and i think the monkey of playing lame duck vanilla on D is over. it's possible bad LB play and our secondary injuries bury us, i don't think so tho.
we had 27 points vs baltimore, on really low yardage and frankly it woulda been more of we needed more on the last drive, and if we needed to hammer it in on the prior drive where we kick the FG. we will have more than that vs the cheifs. I don't think KC puts up 30+ on us.
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the giants team that won over the pats in 2011 had very few blue chip guys. they went on the road and beat san fran who had what might be the greatest (qb aside) roster i've ever seen on a football team. we have one 2nd team all pro and 2 total pro bowlers and beat a team w 9.
this is a murky way of measuring a team IMO. i think you need to win match ups, but we have advanced stats that tell the story better (not completely) than some guy's opinion on some general formula. I'd say we can win the super bowl because our Run O and QB match up on everyone, and our d is willing to do enough to get our O the ball.
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we have to confuse mahomes and impact him as much as possible. if he's left comfortable he won't be stopped. they have weak tackles, so the pressure from the edge will have to be strong. we have to be strong in the run game too.
that said, if we can run the ball and control the clock, wear their d down and force them to press, that's our best way to hurt their O. we were good but not great with the middle 8 vs baltimore. vs kc we have to be better.
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i feel confident and nervous for this game all at the same time, a strange over stimulated zen state of both eerie calm and quiet panic.
to the point made above about the lines -- i think we have the best ol in the nfl. I think philly is sick, and kc is good in the middle, but i just feel like the bills have the hot hand and the right mix of size and talent.
a strong run game with multiple backs and being able to involve josh as a runner is not something i think any remaining NFL d can handle. kc and philly have high level ds, but they are nickel base teams and can't dominate lanes with 6 guys like the ravens do. cook is a champion from college, davis is a hungry rookie with power, and Ty is IMO our best overall matchup weapon. I think cook gets 100+ and we get 200+ rushing as a team.
i've always said allen with a run game is a scary sight, it's hard to score points on us when our O is on the field chewing up yards on the ground and mashing people up.
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1/26/25 GAMEDAY AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Bills @ Chiefs 1st Half Thread
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
This team is no further ahead than in 2020. Maybe worse.