colin

they have the opposite issue we have, tons of top tier blue chip talent and a weak qb.

that's a fair concern. i disagree on 1 tech tho. a starting quality cb is worth so much more than a 25-50% of snaps 1 tech. we need a 1 tech, but if he's not a guy who can be a top 10 at his position player, an average starting cb does so much more for the team. bosa hoyt oliver and groot in whatever mix the put them in can be a nasty pass rush package. if williams or bernard can make some plays on passing downs as kind of wildcard/joker types our 3rd and long pass d could be way way better, we were just about the bottom in the nfl last season. just getting that up will lead to more punts in money games, and a starting quality cb2 gets us a long way there along w the boys we got in the trench.

if he can get his contract worked out for us, and didn't cost to much i'd do it. he would make the team better or the same at every position (assuming we get a starting cb and DT in the draft) than what we were last season, including having two real outside threats at WR. i think this is more smoke than fire tho.

it seems to me our brain trust is basically banking on kinkaid, coleman, palmer, and whoever we draft to all have solid positive impacts on the team, as well as our young guys and FAs on D. very beane/mcd esque strategy of buying a bunch of lotto tickets and hoping rather than putting all your eggs in one basket not named josh allen. they might need to swing on some athletic freaks in the draft in the hopes we get a field stretcher, impact cb2, and some kind of monsters up front.

that's true, i think the mindset of the FO is that the new coaches on D, adding bosa and hoyt and that dt from pittz, and whoever we add in the draft is gonna result in a better team -- along w bishop and williams and carter growing up, and kinkaid and coleman getting right on O. i agree we shoulda added real blue chip talent, but the only DL who seemed to be at a high level who was actually available was hendrickson (i really wanted garrett) and at WR it was maybe adams (if he woulda signed, not certain at all) and the dk trade. i thought dk signed for too much tho. if i had my way, and we coulda gotten him for not so much in draft picks, i woulda not extended bernard, not signed palmer and the dt from pittz, and gotten DK -- but the d needs help so i kinda get it. beane needs his picks from last year to show improve or to have a total monster draft this season IMO.

in hindsight it was. we paid the guy, and he blew this past season. he was good his first year, but now we have one single starting outside corner, and we had douglas and elam let us down hard and lose us the afc chip game, so ya it was a bad trade. we coulda dumped a 3 into a cb last year, or packaged and traded up and got thomas jr or something. that mighta got us to the bowl. im not even fading the last two in season trades, i thought at the time they had a good enough shot to get us over the hump. are you douglas' agent, cousin?

a 1 tech at 30 is similar to the bishop pick in the 2nd (i was a big fan of his coming out of college, so it shows my drafting chops!). If it's a year one starter who is or will be better than the rest of the roster at his position, then it's a really good pick. if it's a project, or a non starter (like carter has been, total washout so far), or a guy who got hurt and stymied his growth year one (like bishop or coleman) then you missed a chance at a real plus player at a more important positions. i think our first four selections will be DT, CB, WR, with a slim shot at edge rusher. i could see 2 DTs and 2 CBs, but no less than one of each. if a guy is pat williams, then im happy to spend the 30 or trade up in the 1st for him, but those don't come along too often.

there is a 0% chance we spend our first 5 picks exactly where they are right now. no shot! makes draft day a bit more fun, at the least.

the advanced stats and the tape shows that over the last say 2 years (the hamlin season was honestly a bit different, von went down, trey white came back but should not have had an nfl jersey on, and dorsey was playing dr demento on O) that our actual problem (which was news to me tbh) on D was how we defended an accurate passer. we continued to be tops of the tops at stopping deep passes, and kinda let teams run on light boxes (last season the only game we got really trucked on was the 2nd game vs miami where we sold out vs the pass and dared them to run on us. the baltimore game we got BTFO on big plays and horrible offensive production as much as anything). the rams game, the second half of the detroit game, and the kc playoff game really nailed this. we used so much smoke and mirrors and extreme offensive efficiency to pressure teams into turnovers (i now admit they are not entirely random, there is a method to that madness) to mask how our D just did zilch to make the day long for an accurate passing team. outside of staffy, joe cool is the most accurate passer in the nfl imo, and his garbage line isn't enough for us because our scheme and lack of talent has lead to either big time disruption up front or easy mode stuff on the back end, rather than a well coordinated d where the rush impacts the throw in synergy with the coverage (ironically, that is exactly what mcd's d in carolina did at an elite level). im just hoping the changes in d coaching and the addition of potential xfactor rushers (hoyt and bosa) mixes in w who we have enough to change that this season, but trotting out raw coordinators doesn't give me that much confidence that we will have a big change -- but a change must happen one way or another.

im saying we managed to get ourselves into a situation where our two worst position groups (maybe we have to stretch from cb to secondary, since we have TJ and benford at cb) secondary and wr not only had a lack of top end talent, but also the effective depth was pure cheeks. for example, i think our 3rd lb, williams, is gonna be a bit of a monster. our back ups at RG and C look like they aren't too bad of a fall off from our starters. we have a top 3 or so tackle combo, but when the RT went down vs kc in 2024 reg season, they still blocked their buts off. any one of our RBs can make steady or big plays. it's just goofy to me that we ended up, after spending high picks and trading 3rds mid season the past two seasons, with such a disaster at wr and cb/secondary in the afc chip game. to answer your question, in retrospect the douglas and the cooper trades were bad, but i supported them at the time and if coop stayed healthy maybe it woulda worked out.

the depth and quality of the cb and wr position last season was shocking. two guys who are FAs are getting not a sniff, and they were both starters for us, who we traded 3rd round picks for. and to top that off, the back up behind douglas (who filled in for our actually good cb) was a total write off in elam, and the back up for cooper was hollins who we didn't even bother to talk to and raw injured rookie coleman. lol, sad.

as mentioned in this thread, if they re up one or two IOL, or put a decent (say top 4 rounds) pick into the line, they are stamping their intent of throwing cheap bodies at RB, and putting money/picks into the OL. i think we offer cook a contract, and if he doesn't just take it he's a free agent next season.

we have a top 3 or 4 tackle combo in the nfl, and the best qb in the nfl. our rookie RG is solid, and the C is likely up for a 12+ a year contract. we have some lame contracts to get out of, but this team really is (on offense) built from the ball out. some quality outside wr play and this team legit can threaten to break the nfl scoring record. if cook holds out and doesn't play next season, i think our over the year drop off from that is worth like 1 or 2 points a game. better wr and TE play would be worth more than that. overall, and this is with me being a bit of a hater on our OC, this is likely the most anti fragile offense in the nfl.

a young moulds on this current bills team would break 200 yards and 3TDs in multiple playoff games. the only guy of that era that i would put above him (two guys) at his best and healthy would be TO and moss.

well, it looks like the NFL has decided that it goes 1 QB tied for 2 WR/DE or Edge as the kids say 3 CB 4 LT I'll say an inside outside pass rush guy (jones in KC) is right there w a DE, but the vast majority of them are DEs now, DE is schematically more important that WR for just about every NFL team (ahem, cinci) so to get top stack WR money i think you need to be a bit more rarified than a DE. so like, consistent 10+ sacks and mad pressures puts you way over 25mm and gets you into that 25-35 range, but for WR it's gotta be a pretty monster producer to get there (like a metcalf, higgins is getting quite a bit less than dan hunter in this thread, for example). the one rub in all of this IMO is that aside from RB (used to be MLB, but i think that's changed some because they do different things in the nfl than ncaa now) CB is the most starter ready position as a rookie. benford, white, gilmore, we've drafted lots of CBs who started as rookies and looked flippin good doing so. it's mad rare for a qb, DE, and even a WR or LT to look that good as a rook. IMO, that's the only thing that is keeping CB money from eclipsing WR money. Gs and to a lesser extent Cs have had their pay scale up too, but the real red headed step children and S, TE, and off ball LB. ironic that we (as of the prior two seasons) had so much in those positions (milano, knox, poy, hyde). we've also dumped a lot of draft capital into RB (since allen came in what, 3 or 4 3rds, a 2nd, and a 4th?) but in the past two seasons we have had sick running production so i can't be too mad.