colin

it's hilarious and tasteless. whynotboth.gif (i have no idea how to embed here)

my brain tells me (assuming we are healthy and such) that it's another multi lead change game going down to the wire, but for some reason based on what we saw on sunday night, i think a healthy bills team can win decisively vs kc, especially at home. adding back brown might be the biggest singe change maker, a few of those outside runs might get broken open and that changes everything on the drive. if you throw in a two handed cooper, coleman, and kinkaid, it bumps samuel and shakir down the ladder in terms of who covers them (or else they can leave coleman one on one on the outside w a lesser corner, but that is a dream match up for us), and gives kc fits. also, the pass rush and coverage scheme were so effective at disrupting mahomes, who has not been good at all this season. if we are actually full power on DL w smoot and carter making contributions, and have LBs 1 and 2 (for the first time since what, the early miami game last year?) playing, i think that translates to an extra turnover or punts for kc, and might also force a FG instead of TD. i might be overly optimistic, and be thinking that mcd will continue to coach smart when his playoff history tells us the opposite, but frankly i just don't think kc is great this season. detroit, pittz, and as a match up baltimore are way scarier. the analogy of kc vs philly last year is very apt.

This is some shockingly illuminating analysis! great way to look at it. you do have to add in the extra points (and bad field position if he misses) from trying kicks you never would have with bass, from say the 50 or something, but if you add 6 more points (say you only attempt them at the end of halves and games where you don't lose the field position) you are still in the 3rd at best range of value, and that's not taking the contract impact into account.

I represent that comment. our window was closed after we got hamstrung by the diggs and knox contracts and the injuries to milano and von, but in the wall beside the window there is a Josh Allen cut out sized hole he just ran through.

im kinda touting the iggles as my dark horse nfc team, i think goff might turn into a pumpkin and the iggles have sb experience. if we play (and beat) the iggles in the bowl, that would be a tremendous opening thursday game, philly at buff on the opening thursday night.

the team and the coaches who showed up (williams and that white guy at lb, and cam lewis instead of TJ, just shocking downgrades at the positions we need most based on our scheme and what the ravens do) which had a totally green coleman and no cooper and a hurt samuel (and waste or roster spot mvs) was never gonna win that game. baltimore had a great plan, we did not, and with the above mentioned holes (not to mention rapp who has been a real bright spot, and shakir who is our best wr going down!) it would be too much to overcome on the road. now, if brady and babich adjusted better on the fly (some change on D, not having the stupid trick play) we might have made a game of it, but no way we win. if we can get fully healthy (milano, kinkaid, no cast coop, coleman, spencer brown, carter, smoot) for the detroit game and we still get blow out, then i'll concede im being a homer and we just don't have what it takes for these kind of match ups. if we beat detroit, then im confident we beat the ravens at home in the playoffs.

i'd be shocked but super happy if we win out, 12 game win streak knocking off the top in each conference? that's story book stuff. i'd love it tho. i do think we drop 1 or two more, since im assuming detroit is one of them, then it will be 1 or 2 NFC losses, KC is much more likely to lose 2 of their remaining games, and pitts has some hard ones, ravens too (both play the iggles, who might end up winning us the one seed!). there is a chance we drop 2 nfc games (tbh, i think 1 more loss is very likely, two is harder to see since we always play great off of bye weeks and it's at home and sf isn't that great, and the rams have all kinds of flaws and i don't think they can even slow our O down), and i think we might either have the 1 locked or the 2 locked and no shot at the one in the last week and we turn that into our mini (hopefully extra) bye. if we beat detroit, even if we drop another single game, my confidence will be sky high, but particularly if we lose to them i will be sneaky rooting for the ravens to face a steelers/kc gauntlet before having a chance to play us. if they beat steelers, kc, and us on the road they deserve the chip, i don't think they can do that.

i feel bad for him because he was a bill, but i never loved him as a player for us. this does make me reflect: we are down harty, that guy from miami (sheffield?), davis, diggs we are up hollins, samuel, cooper, coleman if samuel is over the toe and can do what we saw vs kc, it's basically a (late season and playoff, at least) upgrade at every single slot. throw in the injuries to diggs and davis, and it's a walk off. sometimes you just need the football gods to smile on you

i am not as certain about last year, because i think kc left points on the field and could have gone for another td, but i agree with the crux of this thread: basically our d has been terrible in the playoffs, the deeper we go the worse they play. being able to string out long drives and play well up front on D is the salve to that. i'm a bit of a simpleton when i look at football -- 8-10 of the 22 players on the field (when it's not a special teams play) are big monsters. qbs are barely involved in hand offs, some wr's (sometimes all), deep safeties, and one side's cb aren't really involved in most hand offs. on D it's the same, the further from the ball you are the less consistently you impact plays (not less magnitude, but less regularly). presuming brown comes back healthy he's a step better than any RT we've had in the playoffs (he was more raw and hurt the last 2 years). cyborg hit the rook wall last season, and morse is just too small/not strong enough to hold up vs power DTs with skill. on the DL von where he is now is way better than his last two seasons (being an injured guy, or not playing), groot is becoming a top player, AJE is a bit better, if healthy oliver is a player, and DQ was a shell last season, if carter comes back he's our best depth DT in years, and that dude w the 2 picks this year is ok too. before we had settle jr, an over matched phillips getting a lot of burn, and guys like addison and the white guy from washington just getting washed every down. there is a reason reid has always dumped high picks and big contracts on OL and DL. the injuries on d and such really sucked, but our combined lines the last 4 playoffs were far from elite, i'd say they weren't even good in all but maybe one year (and even then injuries hobbled them). if we win a chip this season, the real difference will be the quality of our lines.

i was hedging coming into kc thinking the 2 seed was tops, that the afc north would beat each other up, and kc could not be taken off of their perch. i now see 3 ways (as a poster above stated) that the road to the superbowl goes through buffalo. 1 is kc is one seed, but the bye isn't enough to get them fully healthy post the tough end of year and they are just in a funk or whatever and lose the first game. this has happened historically a few times (tenn was 1 seed, loses to bengals, balt was 1 seed, lost to tenn) as the 2 seed, we play at home. 2. we win the 1 seed by winning out, we get the bye, we are fully healthy and just slaughter or opponents, cruise into the super bowl vs detroit or possibly philly and we do enough to slow their running and take away big passes that they get like 24 points max, an we just run and gun up their butts on O and allen puts up disgusting numbers that make people think he's a bully and then as bills fans we march on other cities and rebuild the world in our image. I like this scenario best. 3. we stumble a bit, maybe 1 or even 2 more losses, detroit looms large for that, but kc not blowing people out catches up and they drop 3 and we have the same record and the tie breaker. we still have the one seed and the bye gets us healthy and then we see what can happen in the post season

i think we keep drafting and if a pick is close enough or better, we stick with the pick and let the vet walk (which we did w edmunds which we did with tre, which we did w moss and singletary, which we did w that rt from the jets who brown replaced, and gabe davis). we goofed up resigning diggs for what we did (elite money, not elite performance, maybe age was the only tell), we goofed w knox (we didn't have anyone else) and we goofed with milano kinda sorta because he's hurt too much. sometimes you just have bad luck, mind you. i think shakir gets signed to top level slot money (i don't even know what that is, but i think it's close to what gabe davis signed for), banford is mcd's adopted son, so he gets top corner money, bernard is a couple injuries away from being a hard signing, but he could get the mkt equiv of what milano got (i figure about 20% or so higher given how the cap has grown). over time we are gonna let dawkins walk unless he stays cheap, cooper is likely gonna cost too much, knox is gonna go, and unless milano comes back, helps us win a chip, and balls out healthy next year, i think he's done too. douglas will go, and at least one other OL will go too. *music plays* it's the circle of liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiifeeeeeeeee

the mcgovern FA signing was really key. morse was a very skilled center, but he got washed in runs and against pass rush vs really physical guys. having conor come in, win the spot, and anchor the position was the biggest help. instead of torrence having to maybe move (his weakness) and help him, he can just be a giant hamstring bear and maul the ugly in front of him. brown is still very up and down, lots of mistakes and penalties, and gets fits sometimes when blocking crafty moves/speed guys, but he also is a silly high level athlete who can run around and make things happen. if we are all healthy in the playoffs, having him and a healthy coop, coleman, kinkiad, and increasingly samuel in addition to what we've been relying on, some of these failed outside screens and runs might break and get rid of the wasted 1st and 2nd downs we saw last night. this line reminds me of the old NE lines, individuals didn't get too much credit (i suppose dawkins does for us, in contrast) but as a unit they blocked cohesively and executed their assignments. the biggest improvement in my mind is how they've handled pressures and simulated pressures. the baltimore and texans d just shellacked us, and kc was poised to do exactly the same thing given we were so short on firepower, but the big nasties gave 17 ample time, and that's a scary sight.

That's exactly it, he's a poor man's taron Johnson, who has similar strengths and weaknesses but is just so much better. When can is playing some over the opponents 4th wr using his eyes and brain to switch the trigger he's an advantage position. Dropping back and reacting he's a weakness, but if he's in place to do what he gets done he closes windows real fast

If you add Coleman, kinkaid, brown, smoot, Carter, brown, and Milano to the team that played today you have a problem. If cooper doesn't have a cast he might go off for 150 too. The holes have been pass rush and lb/safety play on d and today those guys showed out. Throw in an all pro, a young stallion at st and a big body vet at de and you are looking at no good matchups. I'm not as sure about the O because of Josh Allen has a couple guys and some blocking he's good for 30 on anybody. Complete that roster and it's a horror film.

I've thrown shade on Oliver all year, but he was maybe the best dt on the field today. Vs 95 that is big praise