Orton's Arm

From the Bills' perspective, the advantage to Atlanta being 1-4 is that their first rounder will presumably be worth that much more. If the Falcons aren't willing to give up their first rounder in return for Stevie, then the Bills should keep doing what they're doing.

The correct version is: all your base are CATS: You are on the way to destruction. CATS: You have no chance to survive. Make your time. CATS: Ha ha ha!

In the regular season, he looked like an improved version of what I saw in the Lions game. He completed a lot of 5 - 10 yard passes, but seemed to struggle with accuracy when the distance was much beyond 10 yards. The shorter passes he completed were usually to stationary targets; rather than hitting moving targets in stride. The Steelers didn't give him as many opportunities to showcase his wheels as did the Lions. If he becomes a better player than EJ, that would say a lot more about EJ than it would about him.

Beautiful TD pass to Easley. Other than that, he looked less accurate than Fitz. Lots of misfires. Some decently thrown 5 - 10 yard passes. Good wheels though.

> Ponder has already proven he isn't the answer. Last season, he averaged an anemic 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Thus far this season, he's averaged a solid 6.9 yards per attempt. To put that into perspective, Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5 yards per attempt; and Tom Brady's average is 7.5 yards per attempt. At least according to that metric, Ponder's play this season has been about halfway between Edwards and Brady. Some of Ponder's other statistics from this season are a little more disappointing. Last season he averaged less than two sacks a game. This season it's slightly over three sacks per game. His TD/INT ratio for this season is poor; albeit based on limited data. His completion percentage is worse this season than last season. I'm not trying to come to any hard and fast conclusions here. I'm just giving people something to ponder.

I got rid of the strikethrough, bolded and underlined the text, and changed the color. Hope that helps.

Maybe will help drum up some interest in Byrd!

Fitz wasn't the GM. It wasn't his job to evaluate himself, or determine whether he could or couldn't be the long-term answer at QB. That was Nix's job. Nix could have drafted players like Locker, but chose not to.

Agreed. The Broncos got two first rounders, Kyle Orton, and some other stuff for moving Cutler. It's not even like Cutler was or is a top-10 QB. Compare that to the fourth + sixth rounders the Bills got for Lynch. Having too many good QBs on the roster is a much better problem to have than too many good RBs.

Good post. Also, great analysis by the OP! His was a "cream of the TBD crop"-type post. The issues that you and he pointed out are exactly the ones raised by draft analysts. If a QB is weak in a certain area in college, he usually doesn't correct that weakenss as a professional. In Manuel's defense, rookie QBs often struggle with reading defenses or going to their second or third read--even rookie QBs destined to become strong in those areas later in their careers. Even if Manuel does not correct the issues the OP described during his rookie season, there's still a chance they'll be corrected eventually.

Fitz was never noted for accuracy. Not in Cincinnati. Not when he was Trent Edwards' backup. And not when he became the starter. People remember what should have been the game-winning TD pass that Stevie dropped. But they forget the two other passes at the end of the game, both of which Fitz misfired on. Had either of those pass attempts been completed, it would have gone for a game-winning TD. Fitz had a reasonably good #1 WR in Stevie, a typically reliable pass catching TE in Chandler; and had Spiller and Jackson catching passes out of the backfield. That's a decent set of options, though the Bills were weak at #2 and #3 WR. Last season, the Bills' OL was pretty good in pass protection; at least when healthy. Left to right, we had Glenn, Levitre, Wood, Urbik, and Hairston. Was Fitz the only problem on offense? Absolutely not. But if you look only at the accuracy of his throws, there was much that was wanting. Which is why no one signed him to be a starter after his release. Gailey did his best to tailor the offense to Fitz's strengths and weaknesses. The offense required the QB to make quick, good decisions (something Fitz was good at). The throws themselves were typically short, easy-to-make throws which didn't require the QB to hit his target in perfect stride. (Thereby helping mask Fitz's lack of accuracy.)

Agreed. He also has some accuracy issues which need to be corrected.

> With all of that, I can easily seeing us pick in the top 10 of next years draft which is considered to be one of the deepest QB drafts since 84. Assuming your description of next year's QB class is accurate, then I personally would find it very difficult to pass up the opportunity to draft a QB in the first round. Look at the teams in the AFC East: Buffalo Bills: one franchise QB in team history (Jim Kelly). Four Super Bowl appearances (all with Kelly). New England Patriots: 1.5 franchise QBs in team history (the first half of Bledsoe's career, and Tom Brady). Six Super Bowl appearances in franchise history, including three wins. Five of those appearances--including all three wins--occurred when they had Bledsoe and/or Brady on the roster. New York Jets: one franchise QB in team history. One Super Bowl win in team history (when Joe Namath was their QB). Miami Dolphins: two franchise QBs in team history. At least for AFC East teams, getting a franchise QB is something which happens about once every 30 - 40 years. When it does happen, it fundamentally changes the equation for the entire franchise. Suppose (hypothetically speaking) that there's a 50% chance of Manuel becoming a franchise QB--which I feel is optimistic--and a 50% chance that a first round pick next year will be a franchise QB. That would mean that there's a 25% chance of that pick next year taking you from non-franchise QB territory to franchise QB territory. I'd gladly spend a first round pick on that 25% chance. > Yes, we need another CB, G, TE, and maybe FS. There's a significant chance we can be okay with Gilmore and McKelvin as our starting CBs. We also have pretty good depth at CB; although some of that depth is currently injured. LG is an obvious need, but as you pointed out, we can address that in the second or third round. Same with TE. That said, there's usually a difference between what the Bills should do and what they will do. This situation is no different. There's little chance of them drafting a first round QB next year, regardless of what they should do.

How much of a ban should someone have to serve for posting this? I personally voted for Tuel. If he's given the chance to practice with the starters, and if his supporting cast isn't completely dominated the way it had been by the Browns, there's a chance he'll look a lot better than he did against Cleveland. But obviously the Bills need to bring in another QB in case something happens to Tuel. If Tuel plays badly over the next few weeks, that other QB would be bumped up on the depth chart. (After he's had the chance to learn at least some of the offense.) Trent Edwards would be a good choice for that other QB. He's a seasoned veteran, he's not going to be a cancer in the locker room, and he's not afraid to dump the ball off if the pass protection isn't there. He's also played well enough to beat out Fitz in training camp--twice!--which isn't something your average third string QB can say.

In the second half, the Browns defense completely dominated Tuel's supporting cast. Their pass rushers were better than our pass protectors; their secondary was better than our receivers, and they shut down the running game. Outstanding defensive play in the second half is an indication they were a good team.

Tuel played poorly, no question. But it's also inarguable that Tuel's supporting cast was completely dominated by the Browns' defense. I'd like to see how he does after practicing with the starting WRs, and with his supporting cast looking maybe a little more credible than it did against the Browns.

Fair enough. I suspect that the average NFL GM has a lower opinion of Freeman than the average poster here on this board. But Freeman almost certainly still thinks of himself as a starter, and will probably target a team which offers a good opportunity to compete for the starting position.

You know this how? Jacksonville's current QBs are Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne. If Freeman gets himself added to a roster like that, he'd have an excellent opportunity to outplay rivals for the starting QB position.

Lowers the football IQ of the entire board, you say? In that case, I'd like to hear your opinion of this!

If this is accurate, the Bills need to add another QB. If I'm Josh Freeman, I'm much more interested in the Jacksonville opportunity than the Buffalo opportunity. At the end of the year, he'd obviously leave to go someplace with a better long-term opportunity to become a starter. From Freeman's perspective, why go through the effort of learning a whole new offense for a one year backup opportunity? Why not sign a multi-year deal, and learn the offense of the team you hope to be with over the long-term? Assuming Freeman signs with someone other than Buffalo, where does that leave the Bills? We can't go into the next 6 - 10 games with Tuel as the only healthy QB on the roster. Trent Edwards is available. Edwards isn't starter material. But at this point, we have to be realistic about the face we're going to be getting a QB no one else wanted. Edwards is humble, he works hard, he has respectable physical tools, he's more accurate than Fitz, and he doesn't take stupid chances with the football. Given that the Bills are basically picking through other teams' leftovers, that might be the best deal we're going to get.

I agree that Tuel played poorly. But it's not like his teammates did him any favors. The running game got shut down when he was under center. The pass protectors didn't pass protect. WRs didn't get open. They did drop passes, including a beautifully thrown long ball. Tuel's offensive coordinator didn't exactly bring back memories of Bill Walsh. Tuel made his share of mistakes, especially on the INT. It was also obvious that he hadn't been given a single practice snap with the #1s, and hadn't developed any chemistry with them. But I for one am not going to write him off based on two quarters of disappointing play. Not when everything was set up to make him look as bad as possible.

We share the same lake as Cleveland. Why don't we share the same division?

Good post. I agree with what you've written.

I currently live in the Tampa Bay area. Among the local radio guys, the consensus is that Josh Freeman is a major question mark as a QB; and not the kind of guy you want to build your team around.

Joe Montana didn't have a cannon for an arm either, which is why he lasted until the third round. I'll grant that Fitz's arm is probably even weaker than Montana's. But the main thing which separates those two QBs is accuracy. Montana threw beautiful passes which would hit the receiver in perfect stride. Fitz, not so much so. Fitz's decision-making was good. But his lack of accuracy prevented him from becoming a top-15 QB.