I wrote this at SabreSpace and someone asked me to post it here:
Very materially. In the Second Circuit (for the rest of the board, that's where this is playing out, if this was filed in Manhattan): a party must demonstrate (1) irreparable harm absent injunctive relief and (2) either (a) a likelihood of success on the merits, or (b) a serious question going to the merits to make them a fair ground for trial, with a balance of hardships tipping decidedly in the plaintiff’s favor. Lots of circuits do not have the "serious question" option. Now let's analyze: What's the irreparable harm? Not his lost salary, because money is never, ever considered "irreparable harm." Not likely his reputation, since at the end of the day, he could still be vindicated by a verdict in his favor. It's got to be the opportunity to play. With a normal occupation, that won't fly, since the real opportunity is to earn money (again, never, ever considered "irreparable harm"),but maybe with a waning football career, he's got something. Maybe. The second prong of the test: Overturning an arbitrator's decision is hard, so he probably doesn't have a likelihood of success on the merits. But one basis for overturning an award is arbitrator bias, and he may try to argue that Goodell is biased. That's at least a serious question going to the merits. Now we're down to a balance of hardships, and whether it tips decidedly in his favor, and I have no idea. The league has a serious interest in wanting to effectively and efficiently discipline cheaters. Brady has an interest in playing football. Don't know what a judge is going to do there.