Casey D

Looking at the schedule, I'd rank the difficulty of opponents of the Bills as follows, taking into account venue: 1.San Diego 2.Cincinnati 3/4. Carolina/Denver(about the same) 5.Miami 6.New England 7.NY Jets For New England: 1/2. KC/Buffalo(these are must lose if Bills are to have a chance) 3. Tampa 4. at NYJ 5. Miami 6. New Orleans 7. NYJ If the Bills win their 3 divisional games, they need to split the other 4 to get to 9-7. New England almost certainly will not lose at home to NO, Miami or NYJ, so the margin of error for the Bills is extremely small. It seems to me even if Buffalo can go 5-2 down the stretch--a big if-- we are going to need some unlikely help for New England to lose 3 more. The win for them at Miami on Sunday was pretty big, looking at their remaining schedule...CD

These guys have been on top for so long, and accomplished so much, do you think with the beating they took last night--and the realization that they won't win it all this year--that they might be too mentally spent simply to strive for an AFC East title? It seems possible that they could be like the Bills in 1994 and end up at 7-9, even with a relatively easy schedule. They probably will be back next year to some extent, but I just wonder how fired up they can be to just get a 4 seed in the playoffs. Just a thought, but I really think this thing is more wide open than ever.

I think we will need 9 wins. Seems unlikely, but Bills must win against KC and Pats at home, and beat Miami and Jets on road to get enough wins and tiebreaker advantage. Then they need to find 2 wins(or 1 if you think 8-8 makes it with TB) against SD, Cin, Carolina and Denver. But at least they have a chance given the Pats fall, and winning the AFC East and hosting a home playoff game in January would be fun for a franchise not in the playoffs since 1999, even though they certainly will get bounced from the playoffs in the first or second round... CD

Sullivan is a sour puss, but that line about handing off to a lineman or the equipment guy was very funny...CD

It's really true. Even Mike Vick looked like a great pocket passer--because he was always throwing to someone who was open by 3-5 yards. Don't need to be too accurate when the receivers are that wide open.

I mean, they just got their ass@s kicked by a 1-4 team. That second half was ugly, the Bills were physically manhandled. This is 2003 all over again. But this time it is the defense that is fugly beyond words. It is amazing to see how bad they are compared to the last two years. And if I have to see one more two yard pass, I'll puke. If Holcomb can't, or won't, throw the ball more than 10 yard, get him out. Bring back JP and let him take his lumps. This team is done, and 2006 will be another retooling year. We won't be sniffing the playoffs for years at the current rate of progress...CD

Agreed. As I wrote to start, especially having lost on the road to NO already, this week is a must win road game if the Bills are to realistically have a playoff chance. Starting 0-3 on the road, with remaining road games at NE, SD, Cincy, Miami and NYJ, means it is really over, in my opinion. If they go 3-5 into the break, Losman should be starting the rest of the year.

I get your point, I think it's interesting to think about it this way, but you have the Bills going 6-2 on the road, and only 4-4 at home on your list. If you are to make the playoffs at 10-6, it's got to be the other way around, 6-2 at home, .500 on the road. I think Tampa on the road is much harder than Carolina at home, so I'd switch those. Same with KC at home v. Cincinnati on the road, those should be switched in my opinion. I think NO on the road was a game we should have had, along with Oakland, NYJ and some other road game. So I'd say we are 1 behind right now, not 2. If we were 4-2 right now, I'd say we were having a good year so far. 3-3 is much more precarious...CD

Three games the Bills must have to stay in the playoff chase. The first is next week against Oakland. Oakland is no pushover, but if they can't beat a team like Oakland on the road right now, it's over. They must, of course, get some road wins. Next must win is at home against NE in December--must have a split against NE and the Bills almost certainly won't win in NE given the history, NE's bye, etc. Last game against the Jets on the road on 1/1. Jets should be running for the bus, they've got to sweep against at least one team in East. If the Bills can win these three games, they have a shot. They would need to win 2 of 3 against KC, Carolina and Denver at home(which won't be easy, but possible), and another road game against either NE(very unlikely)SD(equally unlikely) Cincinnati(possible late in season) Miami(best chance as game is in December and Miami may be reeling by then--also the best game to win from a TB standpoint). Any of these scenarios could be mixed and matched, so long as they get at least 3 wins from these 7 games. This scenario gets the Bills to 9-7, with a good chance to hold the tiebreakers against all other AFC East teams--could be enough to win the division. One more win to get to 10 almost certainly will be enough. But w/o the win this week--assuming no miracle in NE--I think the Bills' realistic chances are over. So unless they win this week, I will continue to limit my expectations for this team--and I am by no means sanguine they will win this week given what I have seen the last two weeks...CD

I was focusing on the offense, but you are right, w/o Spikes the defense will suffer all year. Which makes it even more important for the offense to do more, not less, than what was expected of it, which was not that much...CD

Sorry about the typo on Villarrial.. what kind of name is that, Dutch?

to see if the return of Williams, Villarrial and Euhus, along with the possiblility of Parrish playing, will give this offense a significant boost. With Holcomb at QB, and the starting O-line having a chance to play together for the first time since early in game 2, the O should be much better if it is inherently any good at all. We should get a much better idea of what we really have after Sunday... CD

He's not on the injury list this week. Villareal is listed as probable.

Come on man, be honest at least. You set up a straw man with a fictitious quote, and then pat yourself on the back for demolishing the straw man. He said KH was brought in to be a possible alternative(i.e., an insurance policy) if Losman was awful. That not only is true, it was written about at the time KH was signed...CD

Bingo. Good post! At least give credit to what the Bills are thinking here, even if you disagree.

Uh Rush, where did Indy Mark use the words "open competition?" I think he wrote Holcomb was an alternative. Losman was handed the job w/o competition. He has, at least for now, lost the job. Where was it ever said he could never lose his job? Can't anyone lose a job?

But you incorrectly assume that this is somehow a permanent decision--it is not. If the Bills suck as you suggest, Losman will be back in to get the experience for next year. If the Bills are 2-6 at the break,for example, Losman is in for the rest of the year. Shoot, I bet if they lose Sunday, he's back in for the Jets.

I am not sure if I like the move or not, but it makes sense to do this now if you are going to do it at all . Despite being 1-3, the AFC East seems wide open and the Bills have no conference or division losses, so they are in it if they can start to win. If they win the next two games with Holcomb, people will be happy because the Bills will be in it. But at whatever point the Bills playoff chances are realistically done, Losman goes back in and gets the experience he needs for next year. So as I see it, KH is in until the Bills are out of the hunt. If the Bills truly have the other pieces in place to win(which looks doubtful right now to me), we may see KH for a while. If the Bills are not a contender at all-- as Jerry Sullivan says and may be right-- Losman will be back in for the rest of the year in a couple of weeks, because at that point the games will truly mean nothing from a standings perspective. It will be like Manning with the Giants last year. So either way, the rest of the season will have some interest, either because the Bills are in the AFC East race or we get to see Losman's development. So I get the strategy here...CD

This thread is what a Bush Administration cabinet meeting must be like.

You really have an interesting way of thinking. And your use of hyperbole is just super. Notwithstanding your once again condescending writing, the articles are not primarily opinion pieces, and they contain many quotes from players and the DC on what some of the problems are on defense. They are wholly consistent with what I have seen at the Houston game live, and as best I can tell from television in the other to games--although it is hard for me to tell too much from a network broadcast. You don't have to get anything from the author to determine that my views are are consistent with just about all the statements made by the professionals in the articles. Yours are not. Does not make me right, or you wrong. It does suggest that your basic position that I have no idea what I am talking about, and that your views are indisputably correct, is wrong. But I should stop upsetting you by challenging your world view, so I will go now. Take care.

No offense taken. No one is arguing that Edwards is a great tackle. The issue is whether all, or most, of the poor play on defense can be attributed to Edwards. I think fairly read, while I agree that they would not single out Edwards(but the article does even more than not single out Edwards, it indicates that Gray says he has been steadier than most), the article tells us that there have been lots of defensive breakdowns, and that Edwards is not the primary reason that the run defense has been gashed--it has required lots of mistakes from lots of people on defense. That to me not only is a fair reading, it seems a fair assessment of what I have seen so far from the defense.

Try this one too from Allen Wilson of the News. And in terms of your "higher standards" I suspect these folks actually watched the games--as did I. The notion that you know more than everyone else by glancing at the game on TV is remarkably arrogant. No matter what he does or how he plays, defensive tackle Ron Edwards will be held to the standards set by the man he replaced. Pat Williams' name has popped up often since the Buffalo Bills' defense got run over by Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Edwards has yet to make anyone forget about Williams, who went to Minnesota via free agency. Edwards had a solid effort in the season-opening win over Houston, but against Tampa Bay he had trouble getting off blocks and was knocked off the ball on several running plays. He played better last Sunday versus Atlanta, but it was hardly noticed as the Bills yielded 236 rushing yards in a 24-16 loss. "You always try to get better and improve in everything you do," Edwards said. "I know I can play better. You just keep working at it and try to find a way to get better." Actually, the Bills have no complaints about Edwards' play. Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray called the fifth-year veteran one of his steadiest performers. The Bills still appear to miss Williams, who formed a dominant interior tandem with Pro Bowler Sam Adams. But the team says it's unfair to Edwards or anyone on defense to imply that Williams' absence is the sole reason they haven't stopped the run lately. "I don't think bringing one person back will make a difference the way that we're playing," defensive end Chris Kelsay said. The Bills' defensive woes have been a group effort. The unit has given up 522 yards rushing and ranks dead last in the NFL, allowing 174 yards per game. The Bills have been victimized by opponents' zone blocking schemes, which call for offensive linemen to move laterally off the snap. When defenders over-commit to where the play is designed to go, the line can push them aside and running backs are able to find huge cutback lanes opposite the play side. Many of the big runs by Tampa Bay's Carnell Williams and Atlanta's Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett were on cutbacks. "We're not doing our job, and it shows up when a guy runs through an open gap," Gray said. "You can take a scout team guy and do that, so you know if a No. 1 draft pick sees that he's going to get 100 and some yards." The Bills' defense hasn't played with much patience or discipline, Gray said, and players are getting caught out of position. Gray said everyone needs to stop trying to do too much and focus on their own assignments. "We've got one guy that's out of place, and it's not because he's doing it on purpose," he said. "It's just that you've got to be disciplined enough to do your job and let the defense take over." The Bills' defensive line wasn't very stout against the run against Tampa Bay or Atlanta. The ends are losing outside containment and the tackles are clogging gaps. Gray has them slanting and stunting on a lot of plays, but if the linemen slant in the wrong direction it plays into the hands of a good zone-blocking team. Defensive end Aaron Schobel spoke for a number of players when he said the defense needs to keep it simple. "I like just lining up and playing our base front," Schobel said. "I think that's when we're at our best. I think right now we're trying to do too much and it's hurting us because of some communication breakdowns. It's always one guy. It's not always the same guy, but it is one guy that's out of position and the running backs are finding it. I think we'll be fine once we go back to the simple things." Gray doesn't buy the notion that a simplified defense is a better one. "You look at us, we've been doing the same thing for the last four years and we haven't changed," he said. "We've made some adjustments, but it goes back to guys trying to do too much. It's not too much within the call, I don't think. They're trying to do somebody else's job. Do only yours and you'll see the defense start climbing back to where it's supposed to be. We'll stop the run, we'll stop the pass and get off the field on third down." Whatever the solution, the Bills have to find a way to stop the run. It won't be easy with linebacker Takeo Spikes out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. Making it even tougher is all the top-shelf running backs they're going to face in the next several weeks, starting Sunday with New Orleans Saints two-time Pro Bowler Deuce McAllister. But Gray promises what we have seen from the Bills' defense won't be what we'll get the rest of the season. "If we were doing our jobs and getting slapped around I'd be worried," he said. "Our mistakes are self-inflicted. You've got to pick yourself up and say, "Hey, let me make only my plays,' and you'll see the defense step back up. We're confident that by the end of the year, when you look at the stats, we won't be where we are now." e-mail: awilson@buffnews.com

He doesn't need to watch the game--he has studied game film. He knows that Edwards is the problem, and anyone who says otherwise is simply ignorant, or lying(in the case of Jerry Gray according to AKC). Get with the AKC program man--nothing is wrong with this defense except Edwards, he knows. Gap control, schmap control.

This has to be wrong, people on this Board have stated that they have watched the game film and said the whole problem with the defense is Ron Edwards. What is this gap and lack of discipline nonsense. It has to be Edwards, right? Bills' defense determined to rebound Lack of discipline biggest problem say players, coaches Sal Maiorana Staff writer (September 30, 2005) — ORCHARD PARK — It's not very often that you can say your run defense is going to be better with linebacker Takeo Spikes standing on the sidelines in street clothes with a crutch under each of his arms. News flash, courtesy of Buffalo defensive coordinator Jerry Gray: Even though Spikes is out for the season thanks to a torn Achilles' tendon, Gray said Wednesday that the Bills' run defense will be better. Now here's the punch line: It's not that the Bills are better off with Angelo Crowell playing for Spikes, it's just that they simply can't get any worse at defending the run, with or without Spikes. "We're confident that by the end of the year, when you look at the stats, we won't be where we are now," Gray said. Where they are right now is dead last in stopping the run, allowing an average of 174 yards per game through three weeks, a preposterous figure given the Bills' recent history. In the last two games the Bills have allowed 191 and 236 rushing yards to Tampa Bay and Atlanta, respectively. In the previous two seasons when the Bills finished No. 2 overall in total defense, Gray's defense allowed more than 190 yards on the ground just once — last year, when New England gained 208. "To me it probably is humbling, and it gives you a chance to go up because you can't go anywhere else, so you have to go back up," said Gray. What's perplexing about this sudden inability to stop opposing running backs is that the defense — before Spikes' injury Sunday — was largely unchanged. Ten of 11 starters were back, the lone exception being Ron Edwards taking over for free agent departee Pat Williams at tackle. Williams was a fine player, but his absence isn't profound enough to create such a collapse. In fact, Gray pointed out that Edwards is actually playing pretty well. Instead, the problem has been a lack of discipline throughout the defensive unit. What Gray and a number of his troops see on film are far too many examples of players taking themselves out of position by trying to do too much. "We have to play what the defense is designed to do," middle linebacker London Fletcher said. "If you have the 'A' gap, then you take the 'A' gap. If you have the 'B' gap, take the 'B' gap. "Every guy is responsible for a gap in this defense, so it's not a situation where it's ability or effort or anything like that. It's more discipline. We still remain confident because you know guys can get it done." Gray is all for being aggressive, and he loves players who make plays from sideline to sideline. But the film does not lie, and he sees too many guys overextending themselves and working outside the confines of the scheme. "I think that we've got such good players that guys want to make all the plays, and you've got to be good enough to say, 'This is not my play,'" he said. "You've got to be disciplined enough to do your job and let the defense take over. If we were doing our jobs and getting slapped around I'd be worried. But we're not doing our job and it shows up when a guy runs through an open gap." Defensive end Aaron Schobel sees Gray's point, but he also questioned some of the calls that are being made. Last week, for instance, the Bills blitzed on almost every play trying to get to Atlanta quarterback Michael Vick, and Schobel believes there was too much confusion. "I think we're trying to do too much," Schobel said. "Too much game planning and everybody is not clear on what is going on and there's some miscommunication going on. If we simplify everything, I think we will be all right. "People are out of place, I was out of place. It's not just one person. "I think it's some people trying to do too much. It's little things that we need to correct. It's not like we're getting pushed around. It's not the talent. I think we'll be fine once we go back to the simple things."

Getting patronizing does not make you right. Maybe you should type in all caps so I hear you better--that's persuasive too. There are lots of reasons why the defense has not played well so far, and if in your expert opinion you want to lay it all on Ron Edwards, by all means do so. Tell me though, when did you get the game films from yesterday to study, to come up with your analysis that you say is obvious on film? Did you have time to break it all down today. Man you are good. I expect Edwards will be released tomorrow on your say so, given how obvious the problem is on film.