The problem isn’t that some team can slip, it’s the fact that they have lost so many tiebreakers besides the Colts like you mentioned. It’s another huge one for tiebreakers when Houston meets KC. A KC loss ends any shot for them but a win now does give them tiebreakers over the Texans and Colts
We’re gonna for sure get 2 AFC East, Two AFC West, the North Champions. The question is can the AFC South get that 3rd bid over the Chiefs or can another team catch fire down the stretch like the Steelers (highly unlikely).
A team that can honestly do it is the Dolphins if you can believe that. They have Jets, Steelers, Bengals(all winnable), Tampa at home, and NE to end the season