Sundancer

John: I see his post response quoting yours. I’m sorry you lost your job and trust me, very few people are not going through that or facing something similar right now, including me. It’s awful. The economic consequences from this are more worrisome to me than the disease actually. There are no easy answers. Thank you for your reply though and I’m glad the exchange is gone. We are all together in this mess.

https://covidtracking.com/data/ US data compiled by state. Better versions to come for sure.

Hang in there man. The formula for success is distancing, testing , and case tracking. Korea in particular is showing the way. We aren’t there yet but we will be. Anyone talking about dire news is trying to get the word out about what to do. Until there are drugs that truly work, this is all we have.

NYC stopping testing outpatients today. More or less admitting that they are overrun with cases now and bringing people together to be tested probably will do more harm than the good it could have 2 weeks ago. Gut wrenching development and I hope other cities don’t have to concede this too.

The fact that MA and Boston are not in lockdown (I didn’t know this until this morning) refutes all the people chiming in that states and community response is the way to go. What in the ever loving **** are they thinking?!?

For me: economy. I want the best balance of control of this without 20 years of economic fallout. 8 weeks sitting at home is fine if On Week 9 most of my clients start paying their bills and everything is back to normal. That’s not what we are headed towards. My employees rely on me. My vendors rely on me. I rely on my vendors. This is not just a matter of being concerned because I can’t do my daily 60 mins at the gym and go to Starbucks for an overpriced coffee.

I know what *I* am supposed to be doing. I have no patience to "learn from other people's mistakes" in this. That's a recipe for disaster. "Hey look Ohio is a mess. Thankfully we have this all under control in Indiana because we did something different. Phew." Do you see how absurd that is? This is why the "well areas" of the country right now need to be protected from their own bad governance. We have already had a failure of state governance in enough states that this is nearly an out of control contagion. What I'd like to know is what is being done, at a national level, to undertake the steps that Korea and Germany undertook to get this under control. I have not heard of a full scale testing and worse tracking/mapping plan that were/are vital in Korea. We have nothing like that being discussed at the national level. And that step is what happens at the end of the undefined shutdown that allows us to re-open with any sense of confidence in this not happening again. Someone said above "The best minds are on it." OK. What is the plan? If you tell me, it would be the first time I've heard it. This isn't a war with an enemy we need to hide the plan from. I am EXCITED for the moment when this national plan is unveiled and you should be too. And I do expect it soon. But for some reason we are in this phase of "let the states take care of things." That doesn't work because all the states share open borders with each other. This isn't Europe or Asia where healthy Utah can shut down all crossings from CA.

I do watch them. What's the plan? 15 days of distancing? Closure? Why was NY open while PA was closed? Florida spring breakers traveling down and then returning to wherever? What's the plan to get resources from where they may be unneeded now to where they are needed now? What is the plan for returning to operation of an economy? I agree the minds are there in the room. But right now the federal government has not conveyed a plan of attack for this "war" on a national scale like it needs to be treated. If the government had conveyed the plan, you could tell me what it was and I wouldn't be asking. I'm not mad at you here. Just frustrated by the lack of clarity on what the current plan is (mostly from an economic perspective--I want to know what we are doing to settle this, then come out of it). And yes, I understand that there need not be the same restrictions everywhere, but leaving it to Governors is not working. NYC and PA should have shut down 2 weeks ago. FL should have shut down in advance of Spring Break, which is like 100 concerts in a row of mixing then sending those people back home. Resource allocation needs to be centralized. If the Nebraska hospitals are about to get 100 ventilators and 1M masks, but have 20 cases of COVID-19, those resources should shift in part to a harder hit area. We need a federal plan for a "war," which I agree is how we should treat this.

You’re kind of snarky here but I’ll put it to you then. What is the plan through to the other side? 1 week. 2 weeks. 3 weeks. 8 weeks.

What is that supposed to be? The Hammer and dance article in the info thread is one I read yesterday morning. It is so grim, even after getting to the dance phase done right (after 3-7 weeks of big time quarantine in the hammer phase), that it’s tough to swallow. At the same time, I’d love for the admin to tell us what the coherent national strategy is so America could strengthen its resolve to get to the other side.

My point, met with Thor's Hammer earlier so I'll be careful to not get this deleted, is that we need someone Americans by and large trust on that team, to be its voice. Fauci is great but he's pure science. Gates is not, ie, he can balance more variables and is a trusted mind, and America believes in him. It doesn't matter because Fauci barely makes it to the mike, let alone another person who would speak their mind. But I say it again, if Gates is up there, the market pops up, Americans feel more confident, and that matters. What also will matter is when we finally get a national response with a clear goal and path out of this. That is still 100% clear as mud. So right now, the federal government is failing to make clear any path forward. Does anyone believe at the end of the magic "15 days," this ends? Since the answer is "of course not," stop saying it. Give the real timeline: 3 weeks of hardcore lockdown organized by region. And after that, at the time when cases are spiking (I cannot imagine what the hospital situation in NYC will be in 3 weeks), what happens next? Hopefully massive massive testing and tracking combined with gradual reopening so we don't get more massive spikes but only pockets. And perhaps we will have enough basic equipment then (it's unfathomable to imagine what is going to happen with these mask shortages) with the more complicated things (ventilators) to follow in the production chain. The drug solutions ain't coming until a lot of time has passed.

No agenda except the facts. Not there to give himself attaboys. Hard not to like him.

I don't think you're getting this. Gates brings a level of confidence to the room. He is not the kind of person to say, "I can fix this." He is the person to get the right people in the room and inspire confidence in the American people--something we lack when we see sniping in press conferences and personal vendettas. I don't care to see any of that--it's abhorrent. Give someone like Fauci or Gates the mike and get the rest of them out of the room. Bill Gates is the figurehead we need right now. If you think he's the wrong person, I can't imagine what you think about politicians being in charge of these briefings!

If we want to see a market pop and get a guy who can make the right phone calls and has credibility with America, tap Bill Gates to lead the coronavirus task force. #DraftBillGates

Guilty here too. I never dismissed it like some but I definitely was in the “It’s overblown, we can’t shut down for 2 weeks-think of the economy” club that so many are still in. I’m less inclined to judge them because they must live in areas not yet seeing it and what their healthcare workers are seeing. Observing what is happening to the healthcare in Italy and is just arriving here, the shut down has to happen or instead of rebuilding the economy merely from fallen walls, we will be building it from ash. 2-3 weeks and in that time, we must have massive testing, tracking ready to go with a pipeline of medical supplies organized and shipping for the next wave.

The virus isn’t hitting your health care system yet. Trust me I’m jealous because I felt the same way a week ago. My neighbor is a doc and so is one of my best friends. My wife works in hospice. It’s barely registered here in terms of cases yet (in the tens in hospitals, only a few deaths so far) and it’s already taxing resources. I fervently hope our regional early partial shut down doesn’t hit them in the way they fear. I’d love nothing more than to be happy that you got your free walks in and this doesn’t turn into the Italian overrun of our healthcare system because people ignored all the warnings.

Gyms and golf clubs closed here a week ago.

If you’re in an area that’s still open, count yourself lucky! All clubs closed here.

I can see what you’re saying. I am not advocating a national shutdown but a national response that does not rely on regional leadership making decisions like keeping the Florida beaches open for tourists to mingle and take home their new virus. In the end, the effectiveness of any quarantine comes down to the community and individual being dedicated to it. Regions that take the lead ahead of the national response in reaction to cases are fine of course. I hope we can have the discussion about an overreaction soon. That would be awesome. But I don’t know why the US would be spared what other countries are facing. You can see big city hospitals bracing for impact now and we are nowhere near a peak yet (Italy is overrun and also not yet peaked...we are behind them).

Yes. In 2-3 weeks of this hardcore quarantine, to save the economy, we need to have in place a bazillion testing locations and temp monitoring stations. Along with at least a nationwide app everyone is using all the time to track movement so when you test positive, all people in your proximity during the last x days get an alert to test and quarantine. SK used tracking teams to track case exposures but we are not ready for that in 2 weeks. Then we reopen the economy in reverse order of its closure, with gyms, restaurants, events, and travel last. This *is* saying yes to a surveillance state. But also some return to an Economy (in shambles for sure but maybe not ashes). I don’t see a way back to normalcy within a year or more otherwise. I have yet to see the government present a cohesive shutdown plan for the country or a plan for coming out of the shutdown. We require a national plan, not a regional patchwork of state and local approaches. And it needs to be clear and predictable so we all understand it. I think we could as a country rally around that if it was clear. The Pence team I’m sure is having this discussion. But we need the plan right now.

Fantastic chart. This makes sense in view of Bill Gates's suggestion that the shutdown has to last 10 weeks and be widespread to get the caseload down to near 0. And then you re-open with massive testing and (of course by then) awareness because it's easy to just fall back into the exponential growth trap. 10 weeks only works if people abide by it. And even with this, we will likely see more waves as is predicted in the Imperial College report. God knows when we will allow people back from other countries. A looooooooooooooong time thereafter.

In 2 weeks, we will still be climbing the curve nationally.

Zero warning. People will not be able to pick up checks. Terrible for cashflow. Especially for shared office workers. The news headline says 8pm tonight. It's midnight tomorrow. Same difference though.

Washington got the memo on social distancing and acted on it earlier than other places. Less public transportation. More of a work from home economy. Could be a lot of reasons for its leveling on new cases (not that a linear progression is great either). NY's case rise is much more dire. Same with NJ and the Philadelphia area.

That night was the tipping point for sure. It was coming regardless but that was the moment this went from blithe ignorance to forefront of consciousness. I was on the phone yesterday with some people from Buffalo. They know it's coming but I could tell they still don't get what's about to hit in a week or so. My brother and his girlfriend are nurses in Buffalo. He gets what's about to happen but only theoretically. Some people won't buy it until they see photos of their friends in the middle of this, which is part of what lead to our slow reaction as a country.