Sundancer

I bet you'll see 40-50% of people not taking it by choice. There's a lot of anti-vaccine sentiment rising in general, but to this one specifically.

Been staying at the Inn and now AirBnBs on Big Moose Lake (near Inlet) since 1978. . Went there as a kid. Now go there with my college aged own kid. Favorite place on earth The whole chain of hikes, lakes, and towns from Old Forge to Blue Mountain.

Same as the [National/CDC] guidelines. You have to prove you can stay at your level for two weeks before you move to the next one. [Hap Edit: it's my understanding that NYS basically is following the National guidelines on CDC website/announced at Task Force meeting. It just seems unusual and harsh because many states are NOT following them]

Very happy for Florida Jon in Jax. I hope every state reopens with great success. I’m rooting hardest for the states reopening fastest. Who wouldn’t be?!?

I'm for that, but you'll have to have rapid testing in place as well as tracking to make a difference. It looks like we're opening well before that phase is read.

The real number may be higher than 1% but it's not 20% like some extrapolate from some NYS data. The case counts are going to go up with restrictions being lifted. Just hope they go up slowly enough for our healthcare to take care of them with some distancing in place and weather breaking. It's a concern.

What we are seeing on fatalities in the US is probably a result of our larger country and areas hitting peaks at different times. Where Italy and Spain hit their peaks and dropped off in similar ways, the US remains at its peak deaths/day steadily almost all month, including yesterday. NY has dropped off but NJ is still hitting its daily death highs and so are MA and PA. I am not sure if that means that other states will peak even later than these or if this will finally drop in the coming weeks. It's hard to say what relaxing the lockdown without testing/tracking in place will do to the numbers. If we are heading to a gradual drop off like Italy (see chart below) with a month of more of 1000-1500 deaths per day into June, we will cross the 100K deaths before Independence Day easily. That will be tough to accept.

A disturbing trend lately is that while the NY and NJ numbers now take up a lower percentage of deaths each day, the total deaths nationwide remain steady. Other state numbers are rising steadily. Case numbers (bound to rise with more testing) also rising steadily or only level in some places. Really not a lot of signs pointing to a quick abatement of cases or deaths on the horizon especially with so many states about to reopen this week. Some local hospital data I saw shows no signs of dropping numbers. Just level. I’m not critiquing the economic decisions to reopen but it seems certain a lot more cases and deaths will follow.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?type=styln-live-updates&label=new york &index=1&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-1ac474b4 About 21 percent of people in New York City who were tested for coronavirus antibodies this week tested positive, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Thursday. The surprising results come from a state program that randomly tested 3,000 supermarket customers across New York State. Nearly 14 percent of those tests came back positive, Mr. Cuomo said.

That's great stuff. The takeaways from the Santa Clara study and the two data points in Boston and Iceland is this: We need to do some true random studies but also get much better antibody tests if we can. That will give us better measures of prevalence and morbidity. The other takeaway is that the quick antibody test is critical for reopening.

I put my goal about getting out of this without more deaths and more shutdowns way above someone knowing that I go to PetSmart once a month or my Youp### preferences. And since I assume there's already a ton out there about me, taking on a little more to get out of this mess seems worth it.

Hapless, this guy Limeaid and the protestors is why I feel like we have to assume the critical piece of contact tracing won’t happen here. It’s astounding to see how critical it is and how well it’s working elsewhere but here we have people who won’t install an app on their phone, wear a mask in public, or social distance. Sometimes I feel like we need to just get the 300,000-2.4M killed and be done with the charade that we can minimize this. We will close this social distancing phase of it runs its course with 70-80,000 deaths in a 5 month span. And if we reopen without distancing, it will be many times higher. It’s frustrating. I’m dying to reopen sensibly and believe in the federal guidelines as a pretty good general model.

My wife works with this population in a big city and yes, all that you say is true. My step-mother-in-law is in a retirement community (not a nursing home) and it is under a severe lockdown.

OK thank you, this makes good sense. Given the availability of these antibody tests now, it seems we will shortly have a lot more data, and a lot more data about "man on the street" prevalence and also how symptomatic this is. But these glimpses seem to show good and bad news: The bad is that the disease can be asymptomatic for lots of people, maybe way more than we know (and if it's transmissible while asymptomatic like we think it is, that's bad), and the good being that it may be asymptomatic and have less complications/fatalities than we thought. Neither is an argument for changing current distancing policy since we've already seen how this overwhelms healthcare systems.

We have several small studies (Santa Clara, Boston General man-on-the-street, Boston homeless shelter) showing tons of asymptomatic people using antibody tests. So I have this question for the more epidemiological among you. Would there be any way to explain the data that *perhaps* 25% of the population already has developed antibodies for this (thinking about Boston and SantaClara showing this may already be out there)...but there's only been one massive outbreak of deaths and hospitalizations (NYC)? If it was already 25% prevalent across most of the country, why would NYC be the only area getting hammered so hard? Or said another way, if 25% of the population had this in LA, Chicago, and Philly, shouldn't they be seeing proportionately awful outbreaks similar to what has happened in NYC? Also, and related thought experiment, is there precedent for a virus leaping from a place like China in late 2019 to infect 25%+ of people in the US in 4 months? My numbers instincts say #1 makes no sense and there may be a testing or some other issue...and number 2, I just don't have background in to answer but it would seem mind-boggling for a virus to spread that quickly.

Hapless, I’m not going to block Quote the charts but I think we have been in general agreement that the US is a couple weeks behind Italy and Spain (so we have hoped) and if so, I would expect our charts to resemble those you presented in 2 weeks. I would also reiterate that I like the guidelines. If an area is not ready because the data shows it is not ready, no phase 1. It has to wait. So my two week gut feel above has to be data supported before we make a move to open. If what I think will be ready in 2 weeks is not ready until 4, oh well. I am starting to doubt if we as a country have the backbone to follow those guidelines though, especially when the person supposedly promoting them is Tweeting “Free Michigan.” The premature opening of the country will kill a lot of people and also make the last month of shutdown almost a complete waste of time. It will be interesting to hear from Birx and Fauci today. I read the WSJ every day. That was the first story I ever entered a comment on. It is terrible reporting for what was NY/NJ “reporting” deaths for two days in the same 24 hour window (1pm report one day, 1230 report day following equals 2x deaths in a calendar day but really is 2 days of deaths) or has something to do with the 3700 death dump. Either way, it’s clearly a bull#### number manipulated to grab a headline. It’s really uncharacteristic for the Journal to report like that.

We have only had over 2000 deaths in a day a few times so 4600 in 24 hours is just a counting anomaly, not an actual 24 hour spike. If we actually had 4500 deaths in a 24 hour period in the last few days, the preceding or following 24 would be much less than 2000, and that hasn’t happened. The WSJ could also be conflating the 3700 death increase from Weds into these numbers. Whatever it is, it doesn’t align with numbers reported from other sources.

I think we will have ample testing soon, but I suspect tracking will be ad hoc where people inform their employers and people they visited, who will then get tested, but not a wider group of contacts who are strangers. I am resigning myself to the no contact tracing because so many people are freaking out about it. I of course favor it and am both surprised and happy to see the Trump admin pushing for it.