Dr. Who

Newton is good. He's going to split time with Ed Oliver. Take the same draft and replace Newton with Mitchell, and it's excellent, and has more transformative capacity. Also, I keep seeing Lloyd around that pick. I'd rather grab Braelon Allen, but he's probably gone before then. I'd prefer Isaiah Davis or Dylan Laube at #134 if that was an option.

I don't think there are any first round safeties, but McD would love Cooper Dejean, and in a vacuum, I'd like him, too. It is a myth that there are three first round value DEs. It's one of the worst position classes in the draft. I don't think either of the Robinsons are true first round values. Latu, you should take, but he won't be there. The first round DTs mainly play the same position Ed Oliver does. It's not a good match, and not good value. Newton is good, though. I think they will try to grab Thomas or Mitchell if they can. A trade up would not shock me, especially if it is a small jump. A trade back should be the fall back option, but I think it represents a fail on Beane's part. He should go get the potential WR1, though trading back and picking up a third could work out.

Okay, there's no way Jordan Jefferson is there at #248. The model is way messed up to let that happen. I don't really like Kinchens. I'd rather take Bullard or Cole Bishop there, though #60 is too rich. But nice job, and I'll forgive it, because you somehow ended up with Thomas. If that happens, I'm going to imbibe a celebratory Guinness. If they take D in the first, I'm going to have a consolatory Guinness. I'm prepared, either way . . .

Alright, that is more rational, but I rather doubt you're going to ply away a WR close to Diggs' talent from another team. It would be expensive. Diggs may or may not want to be here. I think he likes to win, and he certainly wants to get paid. I still think it's more plausible that he was playing hurt, rather than quiet quitting the second half of the year. And also, he might be physically dropping off, and lashing out because he is unhappy about it. I dunno, but speculating discontent when no one knows the real story is pretty much fan fiction.

I know you like this sort of thing, but trading Diggs is in no way the best possible outcome for the Bills. Even if he's dropped off, he's still likely at least a very good WR2 in talent. Do you think grabbing another first, somehow, and bringing in two rookie WRs is a good idea? Do you think that is what would happen? Because if McD sees two first round picks, I can almost guarantee you at least one of them is going to play on the D side of the ball. If you lose Diggs from the WR room, you have created a large hole. The value of adding a WR early is replacing Davis, and at the same time adding a potential WR1 down the line. You don't want to ask the rookie to actually be the WR1, and you definitely don't want to bring in two rookies to replace both Diggs and Davis.

Mitchell, I think, is the best attainable choice. The top 3 are out of reach, and Thomas would be way too expensive. (But if he falls a bit, yes, go get him.) After Mitchell, there's some drop off, you can argue how much. I like Legette more than most, but you can probably get him in the second. I wouldn't take Coleman in the first, but I'm okay in the second. Mitchell is the WR who if he hits is WR1 on a rookie contract for five years. And you might not need to make a ridiculous leap up to grab him. If I were Beane, I'm probably not waiting for KC or someone else to knife me in the back. Folks can cry all they want about Beane getting antsy, I'd trade up to fend off the wolves.

Okay, at this point, we are talking past one another to some degree. I'm not talking about blowing the doors off elite teams in the postseason. That is unlikely to happen. We have invested heavily in DL and DB in the past, only to falter in the post-season. Would we have won last season without the spate of injuries? Unknown, but it's not a ridiculous surmise. It could have happened. I wrote in the thread on mid-round players that folks think are going to be good players a list at Center, DT, and S. Center is one of the better positions in the draft. You have one possible first rounder (Powers-Johnson) and a couple of day 2 fellas (Frazier and Van Pran). There are also a couple of day 3 Centers (probably) that are above average (Limmer and Bortolini). The Bills can get one of them. I think you have undervalued my point that stressing the opposing offense to keep up can make the job of the D easier. And naturally, no one is likely to be the '85 Bears, that was a rhetorical gesture. You need an effective D, and it is better to have a dominating one, but that is hard to achieve in this era. And I think we have not sufficiently played into our strength, which is the elite and very rare talent of Josh Allen. And then, it is always a matter of where the strength of an individual draft lies. I don't think there is an edge player worth the early pick, unless Latu falls way further than anyone anticipates. Anyway, if they go D early, I hope it's for Cooper Dejean or a top CB, because the value isn't there at the DL position. I think it would be a waste of an opportunity to grab a potential WR1, but whoever they select, I'll be hoping it is a difference maker, and I'm sure you will be, too.

I think this is the most rational plan. It weds daring to reason, which is a good combination. Fortune favors the bold, but not often the foolhardy. I don't think this is foolish, but all we can do is guess at what Beane is thinking. This is a plausible interpretation, and it was my first thought when they signed Samuel. However, I'm sure McD wants his DL or Cooper Dejean, so it could still go in many diverse directions. Nearly six weeks till we have an answer, plenty of time for folks to speculate trading away Diggs or deciding to take defensive players in the top two rounds.

Of course, those of us who agree on this are going to find these points insightful, and the contrary views obtuse to the obvious. All the same, a very cogent point.

And that is where the value of the position has to be a big part of the calculation. If you hit on a safety, you're not saving 30 million dollars on the cap.

I like Isaiah Davis and Dylan Laube as mid-round RBs. Tykee Smith and Jaylon Carlies as mid-round safeties. I like Keith Randolph, Jr. as a later round DT. DeWayne Carter if he slips, but he's likely a day 2 pick. And there are a lot of good Centers in the draft. Everyone talks about Jackson Powers-Johnson, but Zach Frazier, Sedrick Van Pran, Tanor Bortolini, and Beaux Limmer are all very good players. The latter two might be there in the fourth or fifth.

I understand. He's a Rosencrantz and Guildenstern level player. But his peculiarities make him interesting for discussion. Well, I hope that's true. It seems the top tier is prohibitively expensive, so you're talking about Thomas, and then maybe Mitchell. Mitchell you might get for a reasonable cost. I think Thomas, you have to be willing to gamble, and I'm not sold on Beane's willingness to take that much risk. If you're thinking another scenario, I'd love to hear it.

If he can play, he can be as eccentric as he likes. As I wrote elsewhere, shoeless in Buffalo is not a good plan for football season.

If you are in a position to field the equivalent of the '85 Bears, I say go for it. You can win a Super Bowl that way. I think the current game is geared to help the offense, and in the post-season, the Oline often has a full pass to hold pretty much almost all the time without consequences. (Maybe it depends on which team you play for, I dunno.) So I favor taking that into account, though it's possible the pendulum will swing back. I still think I can find explosive defensive players later in the draft, but not at the edge. Peyton Wilson is going to be an amazing LB, though that's not a position we are likely to be looking at. You can get an interesting DT in the second. I like Tykee Smith and Jaylon Carlies as middle round safeties. And yes, a bad OC will sink the plan. There might be diminishing returns on upgrading WR, but we haven't tried it enough to tell, imo. We aren't going to get an OC to equal Reid, but I think you can get sufficient to create an imposing offense that worries the other team. Folks worry about Mahomes, even when his receivers are mediocre. Kelce is part of that, of course. They worry about the Dolphins, even with Tua, who is a good system qb, but not top tier. The Bengals are good, because they lucked into a situation with two WR1. You can't aim for that, but you can aim for better than we have had. My bottom line is a Josh Allen led offense needs sufficient oline protection and weapons to become a constant threat. We shouldn't have long stretches of ineptitude, and the other D needs to be worried about us. Beane can acquire the talent to make that a possibility, and I don't think we're far off, actually. But we still need a few pieces, and I'd rather not put it on the back burner because our D is not ferocious enough. (I'm all for ferocious though. Rapp might not be the best player, but he brings an edge we need. More of that is fine by me.)

Well, you're one of the solid fellas on this board. I respect your intellect and general decency. However, I'm going to stubbornly disagree with your interpretation of the state of the team. I think we both are more optimistic than not, so none of what follows should be understood as a repudiation of that. Nonetheless, here's my brief counter-argument. Wanting a strong WR room does not mean dismissing the value of other positions or groups. You can get a solid S and C outside of the first round. You can often find quality in the middle rounds there. So even if you think those are crucial to the Bills in 2024, that doesn't mean one is compelled to pick them above WR. It's a false either/or, if one intends that. Now, I believe the WR room isn't just about upgrading talent, but getting the right mix of talent. Some folks don't think a big X is needed, for instance. If you have sufficient talent, just make that work. I think having that big X with speed and reliable hands results in an exponential jump on the collective value, the whole transcending the particular values of the parts. I also just don't happen to like many of the other options likely to be there at #28. You can make a case for Cooper Dejean, I suppose. There might be a CB worth the pick. Unless Latu inexplicably falls, I don't like the edge players, and I would not want Beane to reach for need ahead of WR if a fella like Mitchell is still on the board. But also, and here, I'm pretty sure we just differ, I don't think we're likely to prevail in the post-season on the basis of a superior D. There's a threshhold below which you are sunk, but I think McD can coach them up to get above that line. What helps a D a lot is a really outstanding offense that threatens and stresses the other team a great deal. We don't have that, but we could. We have RB1. I think we'll add another in the draft. It doesn't have to be a high pick, because you can get solid RBs late. I think they should and will add to the OL. You might find someone worthy late first, but I doubt it will outweigh WR as I judge the need. Kincaid and Shakir are young, ascending players. I'm high on Kincaid. Samuel is a nice add. It's still missing an outside boundary receiver to make the recipe complete. But overall, I have more urgency not only because I think it is wisest to protect Josh Allen and surround him with the best collection of talent possible, but because I'm not sure about Diggs, how far he'll come back, and exactly where he is altogether. I think it would be foolish to wait until you absolutely have to replace WR1 before you bring the new guy in. Get him now and develop him.

I'm waiting on the Steelers to pick him up, too.

I like this one pretty well, but I'm not crazy about Lloyd at 128. Orhorhoro is an interesting fella. It's a bit of a bet on a wild card, but I'm okay with it.

Yeah, I like the idea of Samuel replaces Harty, Weirdo Hollins replaces Sherfield. They haven't replaced Davis yet, and that needs to be an early pick in the draft.

I like soup, and I love cats. I am a crazy cat person, novelist, collector of too many books. The fella is amusingly eccentric. I don't care one way or the other, if he makes plays. If he doesn't, I'm going to find it easy to hold a grudge against the weirdo whose proclivities I don't agree with. Barefoot in Buffalo doesn't seem like the brightest idea in football season.

I'm sorry, I just hate that argument. Positional value ought to be a consideration. You don't just say, well, I could have the seventh best WR or the second best S, I guess I better pick S. Look at the loaded free agents at S. Look at how RB is now a position you can fill with late round fellas and UFA. And this is an exceptionally good draft at WR, so the seventh best is likely the third best in an ordinary draft. Regardless, my view is that they should draft someone who can conceivably grow into WR1, and preferably someone who is a big X with speed and good hands. That is a piece that we presently lack, and adding it to what we have in the WR room will make the entire ensemble much more dangerous. I sure as hell wouldn't pass on an AD Mitchell to take Chop Robinson, for instance.

Better pray Cooper Dejean isn't on the table at #28, because I can't see McD passing on him. I think Beane will land a veteran S yet, and I'd like to see him gamble some depth to go get the best possible WR in round 1. My confidence in that happening fluctuates by the day.

Some folks think signing Samuel means Beane should pass on the 2024 WR draft, or wait until you're left with tier 3 and below because of S and DL. Beane seems to have grown into the job. I hope he's smart enough not to wait until day 3 to take a WR in this draft.

I certainly prefer him to Chop.

That is hyperbole, you can't or everyone would. I hate the edge players at #28. Dejean, I could understand. If that's the play, they better go get Legette or Coleman in the second.

You can't dig a hole where you have to win 80% of your games in March to have a chance of sneaking into the playoffs.