Dr. Who

Okay, you might be arguing with human nature, but I understand your view. There are holes on the team, so there are multiple positions that make sense from that perspective. The argument for WR is not just about a hole at WR2, but a desire to see a shift in team-building strategy towards prioritizing offense with Josh Allen, a generational QB who too often is asked to elevate mediocre talent. It's also considers that hitting on a potential WR1 going forward gets a premium position on a rookie contract, allowing one to use that "savings" elsewhere in constructing a roster. Cooper Dejean is an exciting player, but he's a S in the NFL, and you ought to have noticed it is a position that is not as expensive to fill as WR. Center in the first is not the smartest play for similar reasons, and also because you can find good Centers later in the draft. In this draft alone, Van Pran and Frazier on day 2, and probably Bortolini and Limmer on day 3.

Strange, but QB often ends up throwing to WR.

First, I don't think it's a low percentage that Thomas, Mitchell, and Legette will all be gone. Most people think you'd have to trade up for Thomas, might have to make a small trade up for Mitchell, and could probably trade back into the early second and still get Legette. So I don't think it is a static strategy lacking complexity and nuance. And in general, those arguing for WR early are making larger arguments than just a particular player, and most are open to other possibilities. I think you've created a bit of a straw man. And almost everyone recognizes DT is a need. I personally think there are decent DTs that can be had Day 2 and some even Day 3, but they won't be Newton. Newton will split time with Ed, right? But maybe a big X replaces Davis outright, and is a particular kind of WR we still lack. And maybe you could peruse @HappyDays and @Kirby Jackson and @BADOLBILZ and @BillsFanForever19 and @Beck Water and, I dunno, quite a few more on this board that don't strike me the least bit dumb, who appear to think WR in the first round is the best choice for this draft.

I dunno, I thought part of what makes the off-season fun is figuring out who you like and why, and rooting for that to happen. You can go back and check. @NewEra and I were among the few who argued for Kincaid well before the draft. That was partly looking at the weak WR draft and sensing Kincaid could be the best playmaker on the board. I personally want a big X with speed. Thomas, Mitchell, and Legette are the fellas that make the most sense to me. Alternatively, I'm one of those who loves McConkey, so I won't be sad if he's the choice. Legette apparently is likely to go in the second, but I'd be surprised if he makes it to #60. Regardless, you can have derision for ordinary folks, I guess. If the Bills take someone I don't like, I'm going to be unhappy about it, then hope he turns out well for my team.

The excellent depth at WR in this draft has been oft mentioned on these boards. What strategy one should adopt in light of that perception is where disputes arise. And that depth is not homogeneous, so the players with particular traits one might favor could still be a relatively rare bird.

The best WRs in a a deep draft are still going before #60. If you tell me for sure Legette will be there, then go ahead and take the DT, but no one can know that.

This is one of the reasons I prefer him to Chop if they choose that direction. Myself, I strongly hope they go WR, and wait till the second to grab a DT.

Yeah, don't listen to that Doctor. He's a crank, and doesn't even have a stolen, err, borrowed Tardis. Beane hasn't been interviewing all those top WRs in a great draft at the position to pass on WR twice in the first two rounds.

You're projecting.

Well, he can definitely take over for Davis . . .

I'd be unhappy to see the Samuel pickup used as a rationale for going D in the first. Your hypothetical, if I'm reading it correctly, is a situation where the evaluation of the DE prospect is equal to the available WR talent. Since I think the fellas at edge likely to be there are really second rounders, it's probable for me the WR would be rated higher. I do understand the strategy of waiting until the second in a deep draft at the WR position. It might be what Beane decides, but not my choice. I prefer Darius, if it comes down to which Robinson . . .

Well, devil, I don't think there is a DE that fits your criteria outside of Latu. I don't think Verse is that fella, and I sure don't think it's Chop or the Mizzou Robinson. The defensive difference maker you are looking for won't be there at #28. I don't think you're finding him in this draft, frankly. Edge is about the worst position, in terms of numbers and quality. Reaching at the bottom of the first for an answer to lack of a dominant defensive presence is not an answer if its driven more by contemplation of a bare cupboard after 2024 than intrinsic value of the available players. Also fast, with good hands, and fashion sense.

Dammit, be quiet man. It's our secret.

What do you make of the news that the Bills have a private work out with Troy Franklin? I had dropped him a round after his terrible Combine and coming in lighter and shorter than expected. Apparently he was ill right before or at the Combine, and is back to 180 lbs.

Interesting, I had not heard that. It might work out for us, then.

He had a disastrous Combine, and smaller than publicized. Maybe he persuades with a good workout. Round 2 for me at this point.

PFN updated their board for St. Patty's Day. This is my favorite so far. Traded back a bit to pick up a third. Don't care if folks don't like the double dip, etc. etc., it would be a great draft. BUF 30. Adonai MitchellWR Texas 60. Ladd McConkeyWR Georgia 93. Javon BullardS Georgia 128. DeWayne CarterDT Duke 134. Tanor BortoliniOC Wisconsin 144. Jordan JeffersonDT LSU 160. Cedric JohnsonEDGE Ole Miss 163. Jaylon CarliesS Missouri 189. Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville 200. Dylan McMahonOG NC State 204. Nehemiah PritchettCB Auburn 248. Anim DankwahOT Howard

That tried and true method gets you a consistent playoff team. It doesn't really get you to Conference championship games or the Super Bowl. The edge players at #28 are at best typical late first round prospects (I don't think they are even that, really.) Unless you are talking about Sweat, who is a second round fella, the first round DTs mainly play the same role as Ed Oliver. You can get solid DTs in the second, and some decent ones later. I think the value on the D side late first is more likely to be at CB. If Cooper Dejean is sitting there, I can see Beane pulling the trigger, though he's a safety in the NFL. Still believe WR is the best option, and still think the ruthless cutting away of overpriced veterans with solid history in the locker room suggests Beane is moving out of his comfort zone.

He's a whippet. We need a fast German Shepherd.

That also depends, of course, on what the trade offer is, but everyone typically assumes getting a third back, which we lack. I've read online some of that rumor about Mitchell. Obviously, I don't have inside information, and I assume Beane will exercise due diligence. Wisdom has to make a judgment that takes into consideration multiple factors, and it could just as easily decide to take a risk on some questionable aspects if there is a feeling that it is not a matter of set character, or if the degree of talent and potential still has a strong capacity to pay off. There's an art to it, beyond anything that can be purely quantified. On the outside, I think Mitchell can be as good as anyone at WR in this draft, so there would have to be substantial red flags to drop him from consideration in the first for me.

There's another thread where some bright folks talk about this, but part of hitting on a first rounder is the cost control at a position. If you hit on a future WR1, you're essentially saving 25 to 30 million on the cap that can be distributed elsewhere in constructing the team. You're not getting that kind of savings taking a Center in the first round. I also pointed out in another thread that there are at least 5 solid Center choices that can start in the NFL. You don't have to take Powers-Johnson to get a superior Center, and he's the only one likely to be chosen in the first. Frazier and Van Pran may go in the second. You could possibly get Limmer or Bortolini day 3, but for sure, you don't have to take a Center on day 1. Just because the position would make a significant difference doesn't mean it has to be addressed at the top of the draft. That is foolish management of draft assets.

I wouldn't trade up just because of KC, even though they are a significant rival in the Conference. You'll have to trade up to get Thomas, imo. You might be able to wait it out for Mitchell, but I think there's a drop off after him. I like Legette. Some might like Coleman. You could wait on them or go for Rice or Walker later. This is all assuming your target is a big X type receiver. The larger point is that I surmise if you want one of the round 1 WRs and you are sitting at #28, folks will know, and act to get ahead of you if the player is sufficiently prized. You can always gamble, or if there are enough players at a position that you value more-or-less the same, just pick whose there.

They might shift emphasis to the Oline, that would make sense, and there could be value there. But just as I don't think signing Samuel means WR is no longer a need for the Bills, I don't take signing Brown as automatically ruling out WR as both a need and a likely possibility for the Chiefs. I don't believe Beane can trust them to stay put, and I just would presume they will move up if the WR they want is within striking range. There's still calculation and speculation involved, and you could get it wrong. The poker analogies aren't inapt. Maybe KC wants Worthy, and waits it out, for instance. Beane could move up for nothing, though most teams will probably surmise WR is a target for us, and so multiple teams might consider getting ahead of us if the right player is coveted. For me, it's Thomas and Mitchell that are the fellas you think about. If you want someone else, stay put or even trade back into the early second.

Is it? If Justin Fields was any good, the Chicago Bears, a major market, wouldn’t have gotten rid of him. I don’t see Justin Fields being a star. Is Field better than Kenny Pickett? Probably, but there is a lot of who cares? None of these guys are going to be the next Ben Roelisburger. The Pittsburgh Steelers are chasing a new franchise quarterback like the Buffalo Bills did when Jim Kelly retired. I don’t see anything the Steelers did that is better than what they had in Ben Roelisburger. It’s going to eventually cost Mike Tomlin his coaching job, like it did with Bill Belichick when Tom Brady left the New England Patriots. You can’t win without an elite NFL franchise quarterback and unfortunately there is a short supply of franchise quarterbacks to go around. I think all these Steelers moves are a whole lot of nothing at the end of the day. The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots are going to have some losing like other teams in the NFL with no franchise quarterback. It’s about time to let the Patriots and Steelers fans have to go 13 years without playoffs. The Patriots and Steelers haven’t been scary bad in a long time, and it’s time they start losing like everyone else in the NFL. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo [Grammar and paragraphing is courtesy, see how that works? It also increases the chance that folks will read what you have to say.]

I can see Beane anticipating KC jumping us, and moving up to fend it off. Plan B is okay by me if they land Legette, but it ought to be plan B.