Dr. Who

If Grant or Harmon are there at 30 (unlikely), I'm taking them and trading up from 56 for a corner.

I agree with your sentiments, but you know the answer: the need at CB is dire, and folks think there's going to be a run on all the ones that rate above a day 3 pick before you get to 56. Further, everyone knows Beane needs to fill that hole, so teams will jump ahead of him if he stands pat. Also, they don't think DT is a difference maker like that. They think it's mostly a two-down run stuffer in a deep draft at the position, so they think you can wait.

Damn, Sean will want him in the fourth.

Correct, I think. I am preemptively annoyed. I'd like to be less annoyed on actual draft day, but probably in the end, this will make it worse.

39. Trey AmosCB Ole Miss 56. Landon JacksonEDGE Arkansas 62. T.J. SandersDT South Carolina 72. Andrew MukubaS Texas 109. Tory HortonWR Colorado State 132. Jamaree CaldwellDT Oregon 169. Jack KiserLB Notre Dame 170. Brashard SmithRB SMU 173. Mitchell EvansTE Notre Dame 177. Clay WebbOG Jacksonville State 206. Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsDT Georgia

I've read some analysis that ranks Harris above where you're putting him. Injuries are a concern. I do think Royals is a fella that you'd legit consider if he were available. I voted for Thomas in the current poll. (I dunno, I guess Thomas isn't actually there now. Alright, I'm back on Harris if that's the list.) Probably your analysis is what I'm thinking of for Harris . . . I like him better than Coleman. I don't think he's just a slightly faster version, but I'm no expert.

If there are no CBs worthy of a 2nd (and there aren't), it would be completely foolish to reach. Edit: I didn't realize Thomas was still there. I do think he's worth that pick. Tre Harris is the other fella to consider. The poll seems to recognize they are the best options.

I can't properly articulate the way those of you who look over the tape with an educated eye. I am largely limited to SEC, which I watch a lot of as an UGA fan. Two players I like who could be day 3 selections: I mentioned the first awhile back, and the other day, someone posted that he has gotten some recent buzz. Anyway, I think Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, UGA, DT who will play DE and can move inside, has some sneaky talent. Another player who I think does a lot of things pretty well is Florida WR Elijhah Badger.

I see your point. The counter is that you are likely to lose some of the players you retained, and there is genuine risk that you won't end up with a replacement that is equal in value. You draft on potential, but when you miss, the hole in the roster is still there. I don't think there is a theoretical position without flaws, and it will always ultimately come down to the individual judgment of the fella building the team. Beane is more of a cautious, steady kind of architect. He likes the bird-in-hand. You can plausibly argue that is too safe. I think he stepped outside his comfort zone to gamble on Miller, and got burned. He still needs to be willing to be daring, whether that means a significant trade up if the opportunity for the right player arises, or accepting less depth to prioritize players with elite potential.

It's obviously a prudential calculation. My sense is that FA has changed somewhat. It is rarely an opportunity to grab a player that will have transformative effect. The best players just don't become available. In that case, retaining players that fit your system and that you have reasonable confidence are either ascending, or likely to retain most of their efficacy while the contract is hard to get out of, is the most rational approach. No doubt, it would be a more palatable method if Beane hit on a few elite playmakers early in the draft.

Really interesting. I've appreciated these write-ups.

I usually agree with Kirby, but I guess you have to be a graybeard to know. The qualitative is not captured by the quantitative.

Yeah, I'm hoping to get one of those guys in the second, even if you have to move up a bit to do so. I just don't like them at 30, and Bill From NYC's TV doesn't like them there, either.

Maybe, but they do this seemingly every year. It's that mad rush to .500 and the eighth pick in the draft. I'm still happy to see them play well, and I'll still hope it might finally presage a difference in the new season, but the worst result would be complacency and TP and, god help us, KA thinking this time the maturation will happen and all they have to do is have patience and tweek the roster. Personally, I don't trust UPL, but goalies are mercurial. They need to add a top 4 RD defensive D to pair with Power. And hire a proven, exceptional PP specialist coach (pay a premium, Terry); I'd like to see a lot of coaching turnover at the assistant level, but that is highly unlikely.

I share that old-fashioned preference. Who in the draft is likely to be that player? McMillan won't fall within range. Maybe Golden with a trade up. I just doubt Beane is willing to pay the price to get there.

The lesson there is draft a fella whose strengths play into what you want to do. But the other side of that is if your scheme isn't working, genuinely change it and make use of the skill set a player has to offer. Don't know what that bodes for CB, but I'm hoping they add some ballast on the DL.

I mean, I like Panda Express, too.

I'm an UGA fan. This fella has the swiftness of Hermes and stone hands. I don't think that's fixable, really. If you can do a hand transplant, yes, he could be a steal.

Folks are taking into account the fact that the Bills have spent a lot of time with the fella, so you hypothetically presume they are good with him if he gets selected. If you're not sure that is correct, this whole game is speculative projection based on hypotheticals. Bond brings an elite trait and could enhance the WR room precisely with a strength it needs to supplement. And to those who think Farmer is being overdrafted, and see that Bond is gathering the most alternate votes, it's not so surprising.

He means trade the 2026 Bills' first and 62 for someone's second round pick that is earlier than 62 and also their 2025 third round pick. You end up with Nolen at 30, Collins and Porter with your second round picks, and Thornton with the newly acquired third round pick. It's not incoherent, but it is irresponsible.

Of course, it's easy to note how the board fell, and adjust to a more optimum set of selections, but you are correct in your interpretation. And this is how you build a good team that lacks elite playmakers, which contributes to the failure to reach the SB.

Yes, that's likely. I think the general rule of thumb is drop a round, and everyone will figure the Bills will finish among the better teams.

I'd rather wait on West than take Farmer at 62. The DTs that should go in the second are gone.

I don't think it requires trading the 2026 1st, and if that was on the table, it would have to be as part of a move into the top of the draft for an elite player at a position that warrants that kind of expenditure. You don't agree. I understand that.

Well, I agree with the needs. How many of them can one plausibly expect Beane to even acknowledge? The WR question is just as divisive as the apportionment of resources. Are we forced to go CB in the first? I don't think so. There is a hierarchy of positional value that one should consider, but even there, I would personally not be dogmatic. If Malachi Starks was impossibly available, I take him no questions, for instance. If there were a genuine separator with plus skills at WR that would make sense in the first, I would go get him. Maybe Golden is that fella, I'm not sure. I'm pretty sure that thought will not cross Beane's mind (and it would likely be prohibitively expensive to make that move). If there is a 1T that could stop the run and provide pass rush potential, I would prefer that over CB. I'd risk having to take the next level CB, or having to trade up to grab someone I was comfortable could be a starter at CB2, to get a DL of that caliber. Maybe that player just isn't there. Folks determine you're looking a at a two-down run stuffer, they want to wait and get someone later. In my view, I could see an upgrade at OG, taking a RB in a good draft for the position, a boundary WR with speed, TE, and maybe developmental QB on offense. WR is the urgent position on that side, though many refuse that assessment. Defense needs are CB2, 1T, Edge, and S is still a question mark. I think those who want to go heavy on DL would like to do so as part of a scheme change, and they're tacitly hoping McDermott realizes there needs to be a creative paradigm shift on his side of the ball that might include more ballast in the trenches. In sum, there's probably too much to accomplish in one draft, but one can't help sensing that it's important to get to the SB in these years of Josh Allen's optimal window. If there is an elite talent that falls within range of a trade, Beane should be aggressive. What would frustrate is the usual approach that covets high-floor safe picks where the ceiling is decent player that disappears when it matters most.