Dr. Who

Why is that? Qb bust rates at the top are 50%, but closer to 90% later on.

Peyton Manning was 3 - 13 his first season with the Colts, btw.

That would be ideal. Only happens if Browns take Allen, Jets take Rosen/Mayfield, Broncos pass on qb and Giants/Browns/Broncos take positional players w/out trading out. Possible, I suppose.

So was I (I hope that was clear.)

LOL, qb of offense and defense.

If Bills have several qbs ranked closely, your prudential analysis is faultless. If they are absolutely in love with one guy (Darnold in this scenario,) prudential calculation goes out the window.

I seem to be one of the few here who like all the top four, so I won't be disappointed if we end up with any one of them. I will be irritated if we pass on Darnold should he be available. I worry about Rosen's durability. I prize Darnold's creativity under pressure, but one can certainly argue plausibly that Rosen has potential to be the best.

I agree, but I think Darnold more probable to be the best so he's the one I want most.

So happy if it works out that way. I didn't think there was any chance for this. Now I've got my hopes up so as a Bills' fan, I have premonitions of disappointment

I am a big fan of Smith, but they put all their chips in for the qb, imo.

Interesting, thanks. Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, Rosen -- how they should be ranked, imo. I'd have to imagine the Jets would strongly consider Darnold if Browns take Allen.

Worst thing that could happen for Bills. Hope you're wrong. My order of preference is Darnold, Allen, Mayfield, Rosen (I like all four). If Giants pass on qb and Jets are locked in on Mayfield, one of Darnold, Allen, or Rosen will be available at 5. That Broncos pick should be the target.

Funny, but maybe one less cup of coffee . . . If rumors that the Browns will pass on Darnold are true, I sure hope we are doing everything we can to move up to 2.

I would not give the Cards the chance to make a "desperate" payment where they could take the qb I want. Nor should they, but I don't think there's a snowball's chance in Hades Darnold falls to 5.

Not bad. If we miss out on the top tier, Luke should go to the top of the list on the basis of "sounds like he should be wearing a Stetson." OTOH, Sam Darnold's grandfather was the Marlboro Man . . .

Not sure qb goes at 2 if Cleveland takes Darnold, but I agree with your basic sentiment. Problem is Cleveland and Giants may prove intransigent with regards to trading 2 or 4 (I don't think 1 is in play.) We have the resources to move up, but maybe noone ends up a seller.

Schedule release is just above paint drying for entertainment, imo. Then the talking heads go through the silly and boring exercise of predicting how each team will do.

Depends on the cost to get 5, but I largely agree. As well, if you get to 5 maybe 2 becomes available contingent on who the Browns take.

I like Mayfield, but I am not paying 3 1sts and 2 2nds to move from 12 to 4. It's a ridiculous overpayment.

Holistic criteria are generally better than focusing on one element. Obviously, a deficit in one characteristic may be offset by a strength elsewhere. A weaker arm can be made up for with superior accuracy, for instance. DIfferent combinations can result in success or failure. Fit between qb and system is a significant factor, but in terms of individual strengths, I would favor the ability to read the defense and make a quick decision. OTOH, I often use the criteria of picking the name that would best fit the hero of a Western

I think Darnold and Allen have higher ceilings with greater risk. I think its not implausible to group the top four in any particular order based on differing criteria. Some may place two clearly above two others, but it isn't self-evident to me that everyone should place Rosen/Mayfield or Darnold/Allen, for example, above the others.

Value of Colts pick at 6 just went signficantly down.

I really don't need any help hating those illegitimate progeny (euphemism for what I wanted to say, not sure about CoC on that word)

Allen probably sits a year while McCarron faces the pressure. Next years draft and FA will presumably greatly improve the oline (plus whatever we add in this draft.)

I think you are right. I was just granting the hypothetical, since horned dogs concern was that somehow we might be ambushed by the Cards or some other team.