Bill from NYC

Do you expect a contribution from Justin Rogers? That would be a great thing!

I completely agree. And with the new CBA, the price more than likely went even higher.

Or a tackle for a loss on a run, a fumble, an interception, pick-six, a hurried, incomplete pass, or a QB with a broken rib.

In 1966 they played with 2 wideouts, no? A shutdown corner took away 50% of a team's receivers. TEs weren't even used that much in those days. Thanks for helping me make my point. And like I said, I won't have a fit if they select Floyd.

Jeff Burris. Thomas Smith, Antoine Winfield, and Nate Clements. These are 1 contract and out 1st round corners who were drafted by the Bills, but we already knew this. Back in the day, many of us were furious to see us draft players in the first round and let them walk. Things change. Check this out: http://nyjetscap.com/darrellerevis.html And this: http://www.sportscity.com/NFL/Philadelphia-Eagles-Salaries Darrelle Revis is, imo, the best corner in the NFL. His cap hit in 2012 is $11,503,000, and it appears he will be eligible for 3 seperate 1 million dollar bonuses (reporting, workout, roster) to boot. Wow! Asumugha comes with an 11,300,000 cap hit for the Eagles. How did that work out? Many posters are quick to point out that the teams with perhaps the best Left Tackles failed to make the playoffs (Miami and Cleveland). Well, look at the financial hit the Jets and Eagles are taking on these corners! It hurt the Jets SO bad that they had to extend, and give more guaranteed money to Sanchez, who imo is not all that. A huge chunk of their entire cap is devoted to a corner, who can cover 1 receiver, and today, we see 4 and 5 wide sets. Paying corners the big bucks after the first contract might actually lend itself to letting them walk, the way the Bills historically do. The thing is, Bills fans know better, because we have seen the results of wasting first round picks on DBs and RBs, and seeing them depart with nothing (or a 4th round pick) in return, and this would be losing football games. Now, as for the 2012 draft, I fully expect the Bills to draft Floyd. I don't want them to mind you, but if they do, I will not have a "Donte Whitner at #8" type of meltdown like I did in 2006 LOL! And I would want to see him play at an Eric Moulds level. If he could, I would be more than satisfied, because this could win us games. What I hope is that we grab an LT who could play at a Brad Hopkins/Takik Glenn level. That would be just fine, if of course one exists. If not, I hope that they trade down, and take a look at Hightower. It would be pretty freaking hard to run against the Bills with Hightower behind Dareus and KW, not to mention our pass rush. I think the Bills will be a playoff contender if they don't tank this draft. And it feels good to be able to even go there. GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nor do I. If I was the GM, it would come down to exactly how good I think the LTs (after Kalil) are. If I thought for example that Martin could play at a better than average level, I would grab him in a second. The Lions signed Jeff Backus to a 2 year, 10 million dollar contract (though incentive laden). Perhaps they think that all of the top LTs will be gone before they pick, which is probably true. Backus was never a star, and their qb is VERY good, and perhaps even prone to injury. But as we know, LTs are extremely hard to get. Wideouts are easier to find. SJ was a 7th, and I don't even think that Wes Welker was drafted. I would not want to use a #10 on a wideout unless I truly believed that he would be great, which of course is an objective term. That said, I fully expect the Bills to use the #10 on a wideout.

Are we forgetting Whitner at #8?

Nope. We made some great moves in free agency, but we are still the Bills.

I have not thought of, nor commented about this in terms of frequency. My premise was about the cost of trading up John.

Thanks for another interesting, well thought post. "Reach" really does vary from team to team. For example, before the Bills switched to the 4/3 and signed Mario and Anderson, I was all over Courtney Upshaw. A couple of weeks ago, I heard Wanny (on Sirius) say that in his defense, Upshaw is a defensive end. Now, after the big ufa signings, and considering the fact that CU would be playing a new position, I would consider him a reach.....for the Bills. That said, if Pittsburgh wanted to trade up and take him early, I would fully understand this, whereas he seems to be ideal for their system, and a very good player. Same applies to the Ravens imo. Ray Lewis is old. I could easily see them trading down for Hightower, who imo will be a great ILB. If they moved to 15 and took him, I don't see this as reaching at all. A "steal" is a steal for any team. Whoever drafts Terrell Davis, Tom Brady or Bryce Paup in round 6 is getting a true "steal." If you already had a superstar on your team at one of their respective positions, it would still be a HUGE benefit to your club, if for no other reason, the trade value that you mentioned. Once again, the Bills are in a good position to really help the team in April. Nix did well in 2011 imo. Let's hope he keeps it going!

I too was under this impression. And what SJB posted was my exact point. And he is right, the body of work to compare it to does not yet exist, but there is zero reason for me to believe that the cost of trading up will not increase. It may already be steeper. In terms of a guess, it will probably be much higher with the new CBA to trade up for the very early picks, because the salary drop off from early first round to late first round was always very steep. Now, a team isn't risking as much (in terms of cash) if they bomb out on a Jermarcus Russell. But again, my guess is that a #10 would fall into the equation of a pick with increased value under the new CBA.

I understand your question. In many, many sets of circumstances, I would be happy to see the Bills trade down. The only point I am trying to make is that due to the new CBA, earlier picks will see their value increase, becaus there is less financial risk for owners/GMs. What would have been a fair deal 3 years ago (and the draft value chart) might not be relevant any more. We shall see.

Don't you have any issues at all with the fact that he played guard in college? I guess one could say moving from OG to OT worked for Branden Albert, but who knows? He might have been a hall of fame OG. Other than Albert, it's hard for me to recall college guards moving to OT in the NFL. It's easy to remember players moving from college OTs to NFL OGs. Ruben Brown and Andy Levitre come to mind, and there are MANY more.

And the value chart was made before the new CBA. Now, draft selections cost teams far less, and imo this will drive up the price of trading up. Looking at the RG3 trade, this may have already started. And while not having checked the chart on the Julio Jones deal in 2011, it does seem like the Falcons paid a huge price. http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/feed/2011-01/2011-nfl-draft/story/falcons-trade-up-for-julio-jones-in-draft-shocker-with-browns If I was the GM, I wouldn't swap picks with Philly unless they gave up a 2nd rounder, and a 3rd round pick in 2013. But obviously, I am just a fan on a message board.

Do as you are told my friend. I am very happy that you are home. Take care, and may God bless!!!

Im inclined to agree. Remember, Bryce Paup was a 6th round pick from a small school. It's great to have extra late round picks imo. True, they have less time to prove themselves, but once in a while you can stumble into a gem.

Astro, is the TE from Bama coming out? He is huge, and gets open. He didn't get a lot of plays his way because of the tons of talent on that offense, so his numbers will not indicate his capabilities. A player like this could be a 4th round gift imo.

Dareus. He was top notch with no outside pass rush, KW hurt, and playing nose. He may now draw single coverage on some plays. He is going to crush pople imo.

Donte might have been the dumbest pick in the history of this franchise. The 2006 draft was loaded, absolutely stacked with talent, and a ton of it was at positions of huge need for the Bills. The Bills are only just starting to get over this debacle. Drafts such as 2006 are franchise killers. Donte wasn't a value pick, nor was he good enough to fill a need. And, he held out to boot. That draft was just a mess.

No, and perhaps I am failing to get explain myself properly (what a surprise lol). Last season, pass rush was the biggest problem. R.Rich and I would spend hours after games complaining about it. The OL wasn't as bad as it had been for a long time, but it wasn't as good as the sack stats would indicate. I am 100% sure that Gailey, one smart dude, had to adapt to problems on the outside. Now, the pass rush looks very good. A LT as good as a healthy Jason Peters would, at the very least in theory, improve the play of Fitz, the running game. and afford the Bills more time of possession. This is not to mention that we often play in the elements, where a bruising ground game is vital. I hope we can fill this hole Doctor. We just might be on the cusp of great things!!!

I couldn't agree more Promo. I see the term "draft value" often used by fans as an alibi of sorts to justify a dumb selection by a GM. Forget about Brady.....Bryce Paup was also a 6th round pick. He was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Would he have been a "reach" in the first round? No, because he played up to it. In essence, Paup was a "steal" in that draft. I'm with you on "value," but there are lots players who I would label a "steal."

Obviously, so did Peters. I think that this is a geat example of exactly why these guys sometimes hold out. When he was traded, he was the best player on the team. And I know that they had re-worked his contract, but he was making less than, and lining up with Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker, 2 players who were horrible. Don't get me wrong, the Bills have made some great moves of late. Mario and 2 men from Bama on that DL are gonna kick some serious ass. But if they had a LT who could play as well as a healthy Jason Peters, I would be going to a playoff game in January. I hope they can fill this void.

Hey, feel better brother! Good luck and may God bless!!!

Generally speaking, I agree with you about a Guard at 10. The only time I would be in favor of this would be if a team didn't have any credible starters at this position, AND you truly believe you will be getting a long term probowl player (Faneca, Hutchinson, Hannah, Little, etc.). The Bills have been, but are not currently in this position. As for corner at 10, this would be a mistake imo. We have a gaping hole at LT, a truly hard position to fill. The Lions just gave Backus another 10 million, and he is fairly average, and not young. LT is a very bad place for a void. I don't want to get into a situation like in the 90s, where the Bills had a great defense, but were weak on the offensive front. Wood works hard, but I for one don't trust him to stay healthy, although Colin Brown didn't look bad. The same can be said about Bell, even if the Bills do re-sign him. And I find it strange that nobody seems to want a free agent LT with starting experience. Fitz is not a star QB. You have said this many times. A good LT would be a HUGE help to him and make his job a lot easier. The Bills helped their defense immensly, including the secondary. With Williams and Anderson rushing the passer, the secondary should instantly improve. I'm all for a solid DB in rounds 3-7. Sure, let's go. Maybe even in the second, but the Bills OL is not a finished product. And btw, LB, if left alone, could also be a weak spot.

Really? Who was the last LT drafted in the first round by the Bills? Wait, I know....John Fina in 1992, with pick #27. You are correct that the Bills, especially when Levy was involved, squandered the resources they did use on the OL. Then, when we had a very good LT, they refused to pay him, and traded him away. And Btw, Woods is a center, and Williams was a fat right tackle. They were drafted between 2002 and 2009. During that span, 5 of their first round picks were either DBs or RBs, and one of those seasons they had no first round pick. That season, their first selection was Parrish in round 2.