BuffaloRebound

So Watt will be hitting Arizona’s cap in 2025 for $2.4m. This is the NFL version of Bobby Bonilla.

I’m sure NFL front offices attempt to put something like this together but as you said it’s very hard in football to measure this. Some positions like QB, RB, K, P you probably could come up with replacement level metrics. Definitely Kicker and Punter where their jobs don’t really rely on anybody else and are statistically measurable. Defensive players and Offensive Line would almost be impossible to come up with a replacement level measure.

Good. Hopefully the first of a couple more. Start with your team leaders. He takes a re-structure, it makes it more palatable to others. He’s still a good player

I’d rather spend the money on an upper echelon Tight End than a Guard. I think that’ll move the needle more for this offense.

Could also mean negotiations aren’t going well with Bojo. Doubt the Bills tender him at $2m plus which means he’ll be a free agent. In a year where the cap is down 10%, punters aren’t getting more than the vet minimum unless they’re significantly better than replacement level.

Not sure people under-estimate Morse, but the concussion thing makes it very hard to rely on him being available.

Good stuff. Makes a lot of sense allocating Brown’s money towards an upper echelon Tight End. We gotta be able to still move the chains when a team gets physical with our WR’s like KC did. A legit Tight End who can also block makes the running game better too.

Thanks. Great read. In regards to Morse, I think you gotta sign Feliciano or bring in a vet at Center. You can’t count on Morse being available for 17 games. For that reason, Morse has either gotta take a pay-cut or be released.

My thoughts too. No sane person is signing up to catch passes from Jarrett Stidham or to watch Newton one hop passes to his pass catchers.

Draft. Or the flood of vets who are gonna be cut. As an aside, it must be absolutely crazy right now for GM’s and agents. Every vet contract is being put under a microscope and re-priced in a down 10% cap world. There only 24 hours in a day and each one of these vet contracts probably takes tons of time on the front offices to come up with a new number and then the agents to figure out what their clients could get in open market if they reject a re-structure/ pay cut.

Tyrell Williams just signed 1 year deal with Detroit for $4.7m that could be worth $6.2m with incentives. John Brown is 2 years older and also coming off an injury plagued season. Tells me Brown would be lucky to get $5m if he was cut when Williams is jumping on that deal from Lions.

Nobody’s paying Morse $7.5m with his concussion history. And nobody’s paying Addison $8m or Butler $7m. Jefferson most likely isn’t getting $7m either but he’s more versatile. With Brown, that makes 5 guys who most likely are taking pay cuts or getting cut. Yes, most years these guys would be offered a restructured deal but not when the cap is going down 10% instead of up 10%.

I think a fair amount of players on the Bills have a deadline of taking a pay cut or outright getting cut.

Kroft had a $5.5m cap hit in 2020. Add that to Smith’s $2m and you’re replacing $7.5m in Tight End cap space.

If Bills still believe in Knox, a TE like Rudolph or Gronk is exactly who they should bring in. They’d be replacing Lee Smith, not Knox.

Can’t see anybody paying Rudolph more than $6-7m per year. Can make a argument that a Tight End like Rudolph helps the team more than Watt would have. More bang for the buck.

They play different positions even though they’re both Tight Ends. Rudolph would be an upgrade over Lee Smith. Allows more 2 Tight End looks and would help the running game.

Unless they’re giving up on Knox, it’s gotta be an in-line Tight End who’s a good blocker. So that’d leave Rudolph and Smith. Not sure about Henry’s blocking prowess. I don’t think Ertz is a fit. He’s used similarly to Knox.

2 years $12m? He might free up Knox to reach his potential. And probably helps the running game too.

On offense, I’d sign Jonnu Smith and bring back D Williams. I’d prefer keeping John Brown but he’s gotta take a pay cut. I think our Running Backs are adequate but I’d upgrade the #3 RB position to a vet who the coaches will actually consider for playing time like a Marlin Mack coming off an injury. On defense, I’d replace Addison with Clowney. Butler and Jefferson need to take pay cuts or I’d replace them with Short. I cross my fingers that Milano doesn’t get offered more than $12m per year by another team and he comes back to Buffalo at closer to $10m per year. In the draft, I’d take a DB in round 1 and an interior OL in Round 2. Wallace, Boettger, Feliciano, McKenzie are guys it’d be nice to have back at the right price but aren’t making or breaking your team and are replaceable.

What’s so special about Vrabel? His defenses have been poor in Tennessee. And coming from Belichik and O’Brien tree, I can’t imagine he’s a player friendly coach.

I actually think Clowney wouldn’t be a bad signing. Doubt he gets more than $7-8m on a 1 year deal. That’s basically the savings if you cut Addison. He can rehabilitate his career here then move on. There’s premier talent in there somewhere. You’d be buying low with him instead of over-paying for almost every other free agent pass rusher with premier talent.

Can somebody explain exactly when you have to be under the cap... Is it by March 17th and then again by the draft? So theoretically, Beane doesn’t have to do any cuts or restructures before March 17th, can sign a bunch of guys when free agency starts and then has to be under the cap again by the start of the draft?

Since there’s no way you’re cutting a guy you just signed before he plays a game, his first year salary and signing bonus are implicitly guaranteed. So if the Bills offered 2 years $25m, that’s not that far from 2 years $31m regardless of the guarantees. Beane clearly sees the need to upgrade the DL if we were that involved with Watt sweepstakes. If $6m over 2 years was the difference, I really hope that means Beane is gonna go out and get a difference maker in free agency.

Well I hope this means that Beane wouldn’t go above a certain number for Watt because he thinks there’s better free agents out there he can land.