3rd and 17 with 3 minutes left, I bet we had a better than 50% chance of winning. Play a gutless conservative 10 yard cushion and give them 12 yards so they can go for it on 4th and 5 where you send a 4 man rush that didn’t get home the entire game.
Then we probably still have a 35% chance of winning if we kept all 3 timeouts for the last minute, but it drops to 7.7% after idiotically burning that timeout.