This is how I see the probabilities:
Indy most likely to beat the Jags. (Indy must win and one team must lose)
Ravens likely to beat the Bengals. (If Indy wins, they must win or someone else lose)
Titans “should” beat Texans (If Indy wins, they must win or someone else lose)
Cleveland could beat the Steelers (If Indy wins, they must win or someone else lose)
If Indy, Ravens and Titans win and
Browns and Bills win = #2 seed, host Colts
Browns win and Bills lose = #2 seed, host Browns
Browns lose and Bills win = #2 seed, host Dolphins
Browns lose and Bills lose = #3 seed, host Ravens