Luxy312

I voted Barkley, assuming they're using their first round pick on him. If they passed on QB in round 1 and instead picked a signal caller in round 2, then I would go "other" for Landry Jones.

Until any of them actually makes a throw in the NFL, I'm not sure how you can say "that was an NFL throw". Even the elite teams aren't playing NFL caliber defensive backs at every position. To say the point is lame is an understatement. Regardless, I don't want Nassib in the first round. No question about it. I would rather draft Landry Jones with the 2nd or 3rd round pick. That kid has a cannon for an arm and a ton of experience. He was forced to play small ball at Oklahoma, but appears to have the skills to be good.

Wrong. His salary is 100% guaranteed for 2013. They cut him and they still pay his salary and still take the cap hit. I would bet my butt on that.

He is rumored to have a split personality, so I listed him twice. Meant to include Vince Young and just mistyped actually.

Ja-normous blew his chance already. I have no desire to see him in a Bills uniform. Might as well call Ryan Leaf, Ryan Leaf, and J.P. Losman back for a tryout.

Alphadog put up some solid logic, but I also would agree with kdiggz. If by some chance Geno Smith is passed on all the way to #9, the Jets could easily gamble on him. One problem with Alphadog's logic is the money factor. With the rookie salary scale, the Jets wouldn't be sinking any measurable amount of money into Smith with either the 9 or 13 pick. While the Sanchize does have his entire $8.25 million salary guaranteed in 2013 and will count $9.85 million against the Jets cap this year, nothing is guaranteed afterward. The Jets could afford the cap hit of $4.8 million in 2014 or force him to renegotiate if he doesn't progress. I do think Rexy will be focused on defense in this draft none the less. It's what got them there in the past and his template for winning games.

People love to quote the exception to the rule, but then rarely go back and do the math on when a QB is picked and NFL success. Let's simplify a bit and look at the 20 years spanning 1990-2012. First round QB's: 48 were picked. 29 were/are 10,000 yard+ passers (60%) and 21 (44%) are still players in the NFL. Second round QB's: 22 were picked. 6 were/are 10,000 yard+ passers (27%) and 6 (27%) are still players in the NFL. Everyones favorite 6th round QB's: 41 were picked. 4 were/are 10,000 yard+ passers (10%) and 5 (12%) are still players in the NFL. This translates to every position in the NFL. Sure teams find gems in later rounds, but even between just the first and second round, the success of NFL players trails off considerably. Like you, I'll live with whatever the coaching staff ultimately does and hope those players succeed. However, I'm a much bigger fan of the trade down scenarios (if they're an option) or waiting to get a signal caller later.

The single most important metric that predicts a teams success or failure is turnover ratio. When the Bills have the 5th worst turnover ratio in the league last year, they're going to lose a lot of games. I'm with you on getting help at linebacker none the less. This team was awful against the run and gave up nearly the most 3rd and long plays in the league last year. You can't win games when you do that. None the less, turnovers were ridiculous. Going -2 in a game translates to losing 95+% of the time. Going -13 for the season (which they did last year) almost always guarantees a losing record and watching the playoffs from the sofa.

Yes, I would consider guard even though it's not ideal. Please tell me when Andy Levitre made the pro bowl. He didn't once in his 4 years with Buffalo. Was he a decent guard? Sure. Fitz didn't take a ton of sacks, but it wasn't for that reason. He got rid of the ball quickly and thus you can look at his interception numbers. Pretty high for a starter. In terms of Kiper, I don't buy his rating any more than many of the others throwing crap on the wall and hoping it sticks. Where was Clausen picked again? Oh yeh, 48th. Obviously NFL teams weren't working off the same draft chart that Kiper gave us before the draft. I'm not working off of it either this year. I posted this in another thread, but I would take Landry Jones in round 2 long before I would take either Nassib, Barkley or Smith in the first. That is truly awesome. Kudos!

Who said draft a safety? Not me. Plenty of boards have the #1 rated CB, WR, OG available at #8. There's a reason no one in the entire nation picks the first round accurately. It's because a teams board is different than yours. That's the point. There's a reason Luck and RG3 went #1/#2 last year. They were CLEARLY top level picks. Sadly, I could actually see Geno Smith falling to #8, who I really don't want at all. I want him to be gone so we don't pick QB that early.

#31 and #34 is viable from the perspective of the draft value chart and the rated values of players this year. I would not be shocked if the 49ers offer the Bills that to move up to #8 to get their guy that they believe can get them back to the Superbowl. Technically, they could even throw in a 3rd or 4th rounder as well.

They're mocking QB, because the #1 rated QB should already be off the board by then. This is not a Luck/RG3 year where there's two guys in the top tier and then a bunch of others. This is the year where there's one guy (Smith) that will be gone and then a lot of guys with potential, but each that have their issues and many that could easily fall to the 2nd round or after. I wouldn't say so much that people are mocking a QB at #8, but really questioning the value over many other positions of need where the Bills could clearly get the #1 guy at a position. That's it in a nutshell. The Bills did this last year with Gilmore. He was the #1 CB on their board and they thankfully didn't pass on him. Same with Dareus and same with Spiller. I'll take a pass on another 2004 type draft season where we take a guy like Losman because we think we have to pick QB after Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger are already selected.

This point has Madden gamer written all over it. There is as much chance of me being drafted quarterback for the Bills as it is for the Jets to trade away the best cornerback in the game for the 13th pick so they can turn around and trade that same pick for another teams safety. In terms of the point of this thread, there may be implications of the trade to what the Jets could do, but it doesn't impact the Bills at all. They pick 8th and the talk stops there. In my opinion, this does not force the Bills hand at all. While I'm not a huge fan of Kevin Kolb, I think that move is telling of the Bills intentions on draft day. They're going to take the best available player on their draft board. While that might be Nassib, it could be Jonathan Cooper, Coradelle Patterson, Tavon Austin or Barkevious Mingo among others. It's amazing how little people actually pay attention to what is being said in the front office. Here's what I think. Buffalo won't pull the string on Nassib in the first round. They will surprise us again by taking a player we don't expect, but one that will fill a position of need. Maybe they pass on Jonathan Cooper, who's rated the best guard by most boards and instead pull a Chance Warmack. By letting Levitre walk, it might just be a position that they place a priority on. If Nassib falls to them in the second round, I think he's a no brainer. I would take him over anyone but Geno Smith and I don't even like Smith that much. Assuming that Smith and Nassib are both gone (which I think is a no brainer), I like Landry Jones in the 2nd round. He's got a tremendous amount of upside. When I think of him, I think Drew Brees "chip on his shoulder" type of guy. He was stuck playing in Oklahoma in a dink and dunk offense, when he has a prototypical vertical passing arm. He's accurate to boot. He also has 50 games under his belt and is 3-1 in bowl games. OK, so I don't care that much for the W-L as it's a team game, but still, he's brought it most weekends.

Couldn't have really said it better than this. Well written and well thought out.

While it's a nice thought, I have serious reservations that an organization that arguably traded their best player to another team for the 13th overall pick is not going to give that pick up (and to a division rival for that matter) for Byrd. This just smells of another "Madden game" trade and isn't rooted in much reasonable thought. The idea of San Francisco giving up 31 and 34 for the Bills at 8 isn't so far fetched. It makes sense from several perspectives. First, the 49ers still have a ton of talent on that team. They may perceive that they only need one difference maker to get back to the Superbowl. Second, from a pick value perspective, it makes sense. They could give those picks and maybe even another later pick or conditional pick next year. A trade here with the Jets just doesn't make sense.

Not sure they really got killed on the schedule, other than starting against New England at home. 7th easiest schedule in the NFL based on last years records. Regardless, I don't think schedule really matters. I think we see another season with a sub 0.500 record.

I'm really hoping that this is a smokescreen for Nix. If he really believes there's "2-3 quarterbacks worthy of picking at the 8th spot", then they're picking quarterback with that first pick. Personally, I don't get it. They've obviously already signed Kolb to a deal that's laden with incentives, but a mere 2 year contract. Why wouldn't you let it ride with Kolb to see if he can get the job done before drafting a QB early, particularly when the class is somewhat weak after Geno Smith? Now there's a report surfacing that the Bills are "very high" on Tavon Martin. Some mocks have them picking him with the 8th pick. Although that kid has wheels, he's very much undersized at WR. While I've been more than happy with the last 3 years draft, I'm just hoping that this one isn't a major buzz kill. So far, that's what it appears to be shaping up to be.

Regardless if this has been done already, you simply can't justify drafting a Guard with the 8th pick. I stopped there because it make so little sense.

While I'm a big fan of Fred Jackson, it's time for him to be a role player. CJ Spiller is the clear cut most talented offensive player on the field. He's a threat to score every time he touches the ball. The split should be 60-40 or even 75-25. That's not to suggest that Fred shouldn't get opportunities as well, but he's just not the home run threat that the team needs to win ball games. Regardless of my opinion, his attitude is great. Just do what's needed to help his quarterback. Classy attitude.

At the end of the day, who cares about free agency and whether they make a "splash" or not? Teams have proven time and time again that getting big name free agents does not guarantee success. In fact, I would argue that it does the opposite. Look at how many years the Redskins tried to buy a team in free agency. They haven't found success to any degree doing that. Building the team through the draft and maybe getting a key FA here or there is the way to go. It should be interesting to see what they do during this draft and beyond. Personally, I think that the Kolb signing is in and of itself a sign of where the team is headed and what they expect. Clearly, they think Geno Smith is gone when they pick 8th and are not convinced that Barkley or any of the other QB's are worth that pick. While I don't like Kolb and don't think he'll be any different than Fitz-cockles, he frees up that pick to take the best available player. Alternatively, they might even be able to trade down with a team like the 49ers that has only a few discrete needs. Would it hurt anyone's feelings if the 49ers gave us both late first rounders for our pick and possibly a conditional 2nd or 3rd rounder next year? Not me.

This post is absolutely wrong. The Bills have far too many holes to fill to be trading multiple draft picks to move up to get what may be marginal talent at QB. If anything, they will be seeking suitors in the 20's to trade down to get additional draft picks to fill said holes. Teams trade up for only a couple of reasons. #1 - They think they can get a player that is a difference maker that gets them over the hump to making a push in the playoffs. #2 - They think they get a sure franchise signal caller that can play at a high level for them for years. I don't see either of those things in this draft. Now that they have Kolb, they're looking past the first round for QB.

This move is purely about flexibility. It wasn't big money and it wasn't long term. It's incentive laden to say the least. I like the option of not reaching for Matt Barkley in the first round if Geno Smith is off the board.

Can you actually make a comeback if you never really succeeded? Just asking...

Not really. In this modern age of football, we see more and more quarterbacks ready to play in the NFL right away. They don't really hold the clipboard any more. A third of the quarterbacks starting for their teams right now were drafted in the last 3 years, and they're playing at a pretty high level. Most started right away or within their first year of being drafted.

It's an interesting thread, but I'm not sure I see it happening, or that it will really matter anyway. I think the Bills are going to be happy with Geno Smith in the first and pretty much just as happy with Nassib, Barkley, Manuel, Jones, or even Wilson in the 2nd round. So the real question if this does occur is whether the Bills can actually trade down in the first round and maybe pick up and extra draft pick. I think they're really kind of stuck with the 8th pick based on who's projected to be drafted early and the teams below them and their respective needs. I could see maybe the Bears moving up if Jarvis Jones is still there at 8th, but then the question is whether the Bills should be picking him given their needs. The real question should be if all of Geno Smith, Jarvis Jones, and Coradelle Patterson are all on the board at that 8th pick, what do the Bills do and what should they do?