Hey @Einstein:
I’m an abacus-based math person, but based on the above, isn’t the probability of McDermott winning the Super Bowl this year 1/32 or about 3%? The single outcome is McDermott being the coach that wins the Super Bowl, and the possible outcomes are that 32 coaches have a chance to win the Super Bowl.
Just like rolling dice, I don’t see how past events factor into the probability of a future event. Can you explain so I can understand how the past factors into a probability calculation like rolling dice, or winning a Super Bowl?