What is the established value of your opinion? If you are going to take a bet you need to know value of the bet, the odds. Did any scout's assistant ask your opinion? Do you have insider on what other teams boards looked like? Do you know how many times Kiper has been absolutely wrong when he declares a player a lock and player stock 'drops' for absolutely no reason? Troup has been described by many coaches as a gym rat but hurt his back - I guess Kiper and you both knew about the upcoming injury and just failed to start a betting pool.
It is REAL EASY to declare something as 'fact' after something has occurred; teams weigh various inputs not only games and measureables like reps, speed, weight, etc but medical evaluations, interviews with players and all those details which actually are involved in picking players.