Dwight Drane

Really, we choked under pressure. I like Dick J. and think he is a good, solid coach. I like JP and think he is a top 10-20 QB. The whole team just blew the last play. Simple. Schneck and Moorman were coming back off the field with 22 seconds left JP was looking at the sidelines from the numeral on the field, nowhere near the line of scrimmage with 17 seconds left. He made it back to the "huddle" with Melvin Fowler having to pull JP up to the LOS to get the play off. There was no play called in my opinion. The receivers just went, or all JP could say with 4 seconds left was "99 GO".

With the wind he is good from 60....against it he is good from 35. Bironas JUST made a 42 yardr and that guy poped a 62 yard game winner a few weeks ago. As others have said, the disorganization on the last play is what hurts..not the decision to go for it.

I understand the concept, but I disagree on the SAT as being an example. There is little luck involved to those who are in the top 2%. On a show like Jeopardy where there are thousands of categories to choose from...then I understand the theory and feel it is applicable. You never know when Cliff Clavin is going to get his dream show. The theory is more applicable to shorting the stock market during big runs, or drafting LT over Larry Johnson in a fantasy draft this year, as I did.

Witherspoon is Papa Bear, and commands the respect of every member of that team. He has them playing together and more importantly, makes them accountable in all aspects of their lives. I laughed when they hired him....then I watched him in action and realized I was the fool.

That's a pretty meaningless phenomenon to me. Below average scores in the 200's are pretty much random guessing....scores in the 700's are pretty much educated guessing. I understand the raw score may be higher than expected, but the top 2% of test takers have to be expected to take better advantage of an easy test than the bottom 2%. In horse racing we translate specific race times and distances into guided numbers called Beyers or Ragozins to get rid of the "luck" involved. A crappy horse can run faster than a better horse during a different race, yet the better horse will more than likely get rewarded with a better number due to track conditions or events that happen during the race. Back to football.....I think Willis, Roscoe and Peters should start a rap group called "Regression Toward the Mean".

HIJACK! It isn't a surprise......a more intelligent person should be able to identify a flaw in a test quicker than a person with average intelligence, thus being able to exploit said flaw. Or in football terms....we run the same defense against New England and Miami. Billecheck and Brady pick us apart and win by close to 30.....Mularkey and Saban are still scratching their a$$es after failing to score a point.

Wow!.....I've never seen one as big as yours in the lockeroom.

I hear you. I bet you the Bills organization themselves just sort of guess their chances. People get scared off by numbers, and if there isn't a spreadsheet or software that can break it down for them they sort of brush it off. I appreciate the work you and others did to inform me just what needed to happen for the Bills to get in. All I did was assume you were correct on tiebreakers, then projected week 17 point spreads and did the same thing you did. If fans knew in general how great a chance we had to make it....I think tickets would sell a bit more. While the product on the field has been better this year, the other organizational departments really have gone downhill...i.e. the ticket window fiasco.

Right now the Bills have almost a 75% chance to make the playoffs if they win out. I don't think anyone in the lockerroom believes that from all the interviews I see. Everyone is all.."I wish we controlled our own destiny, and a lot has to happen..." No, a lot doesn't have to happen. If you beat Tennessee and Baltimore guys, you will most likely be in the playoffs. The Bills are the weak link. Granted a lot rides on Miami beating the Jets, but if that happens...we are almost guaranteed to get in as long as we win two. And you are correct with your mathmatical approach....I break down numbers and odds for a living, so I feel comfortable putting spreads out there that may be a point or 2 off eventually. The biggest point we both agree on is we don't need a miracle...we just need to win.

Not to be a total D!ck to ez....but I did put this together on Sunday during a similar thread he started. You have to take into account point spreads as the most accurate chances of a victory. Since that post the Bengals lost to Indy and the Bills are a slightly bigger favorite, but the rest holds true....here is the paste: You may have to trust me on my math here....but I am using probabilities with pointspeads figured in as to chances of certain outcomes. The hardest part of any scenario is BUFFALO WINNING 2 GAMES. That may be a shock, but there is a better chance of other teams faltering, than us winning both games. We are 3.5 point favorites against TEN which translates to winning almost 2/3 of the time. We will be anywhere from a 1-6 point underdog in Baltimore depending on their homefield chances, I'll use 4.5 which means we will win about 30% of the time or so. This leaves Buffalo with a 20% chance of winning both games. We need 3 of the 4 after KC loses tonight: 1)Jets lose to Miami...MIA 1.5 favorites, just under 60% chance to happen 2)Jax loses 1 game to either NE or KC. Jags 3 point favorites against NE in Florida and I would peg a pickem against KC away. 70% chance of happening 3)CIN lose to IND +3 and then at DEN +2 or home vs PIT -6....about 50% chance or win vs IND and lose final 2....about 15% chance for a total of 65% 4)DEN lose to both CIN -2 and SF -8.....less than 15%..OR..win 1 of two and have KC beat OAK-3 and JAX pick....just under 15% for a total of 30% Odds of Missing with Bills@ 9-7: Jets-Jax-Cin 25% Jets-Jax-Den 12% Jax-Cin-Den 15% Cin-Jets-Den 12% All 4 teams 7% With Buffalo having a 20% chance of winning both of their games....the chances of the Bills in the playoffs are this: Buf+Den 5% Buf+Jets 3% Buf+Cin 2.5% Buf+Jax 2.5% Buf+? 1.5% This leaves Buffalo with a 14.5% chance of making the playoffs assuming my point spreads and odds. I need a beer!

He's got his stuff together.....I didn't feel like a Homer voting for him. PS.....the deaf kid idea is pretty good though. I have a funny feeling they would go that route. Gino 4-1 Deaf Kid 5-2 Field 8-5

Carnack says........."What did the dancer say in the back room of the Sundowner with Bruce Smith and Fred Smerlas?"

You Ass

I'll tanslate for you: If you lift the blackout without a sellout, you justify a giant bandwagon for fans. Look at the Sabres....when they are bad, the Arena has 10,000 in there because everyone can watch the game at home. Why bother going downtown in 20 degree weather to watch them lose to the Islanders 5-2. BUT.....when the Sabres are playing well, the entire season sells out, and people are trampling over old ladies to buy jersies, t-shirts, and especially tickets. The true fans are the 10,000 who can afford to show up and have the passion to do so on a regular basis. The bandwagoner is the guy who pays $200 for a pair of $10 seats in the nosebleeds then tells everyone about it. Point 2: While it is fair to biatch about poor play and that you do not want to shell out your hard earned money to watch it, do not biatch when Ralph or other moves the team. Someone will pay that $35 to watch mediocre football.....maybe not here, but somewhere.

While every bemoans ESPN and their lack of coverage, the Bills are popular where it counts...the betting windows. We opened 3 point favorites last night and are now 4.5 to 5 point favorites at every major casino. Miami opened a 1 point favorite last night against the Jets and is now a 2 to 2.5 point favorite. Those are 2 big moves in a short amount of time, and it means that some big money thinks the Bills are for real. I'd rather have Tony Soprano supporting our boys over Stewart Scott.

Well....we'd play SD- 3 point loss IND- 1 point loss NE- 2nd half choke BAL- will have won against them There is nobody on that list that makes you launch a brick into your skivies

You are right JP. Check out the other thread where I convert pointspreads into % chance of winning, and I get there is almost a 70% chance things will go our way with all the other teams, but only a 20% chance we win our 2 games....leaving around 15% chance the Bills make it in.

I'm glad the team feels that way, because it is up to them. I feel that when the season is over, the things we needed to happen will have happened and it will be up to us to sweep.

You may have to trust me on my math here....but I am using probabilities with pointspeads figured in as to chances of certain outcomes. The hardest part of any scenario is BUFFALO WINNING 2 GAMES. That may be a shock, but there is a better chance of other teams faltering, than us winning both games. We are 3.5 point favorites against TEN which translates to winning almost 2/3 of the time. We will be anywhere from a 1-6 point underdog in Baltimore depending on their homefield chances, I'll use 4.5 which means we will win about 30% of the time or so. This leaves Buffalo with a 20% chance of winning both games. We need 3 of the 4 after KC loses tonight: 1)Jets lose to Miami...MIA 1.5 favorites, just under 60% chance to happen 2)Jax loses 1 game to either NE or KC. Jags 3 point favorites against NE in Florida and I would peg a pickem against KC away. 70% chance of happening 3)CIN lose to IND +3 and then at DEN +2 or home vs PIT -6....about 50% chance or win vs IND and lose final 2....about 15% chance for a total of 65% 4)DEN lose to both CIN -2 and SF -8.....less than 15%..OR..win 1 of two and have KC beat OAK-3 and JAX pick....just under 15% for a total of 30% Odds of Missing with Bills@ 9-7: Jets-Jax-Cin 25% Jets-Jax-Den 12% Jax-Cin-Den 15% Cin-Jets-Den 12% All 4 teams 7% With Buffalo having a 20% chance of winning both of their games....the chances of the Bills in the playoffs are this: Buf+Den 5% Buf+Jets 3% Buf+Cin 2.5% Buf+Jax 2.5% Buf+? 1.5% This leaves Buffalo with a 14.5% chance of making the playoffs assuming my point spreads and odds. I need a beer!

There wasn't SUNDAY TICKET in the 90's, and there wasn't the internet with constant output to fans in NFL markets. The NFL grows and grows, but Buffalo has shrunk. I don't blame people for turning their backs after Donahoe raped and pillaged the city, but I would think all things considered, we are 50/50 at best to be here 10 years from now.

The juice made sense because she could have been having a hypoglycemic reaction which would give the same symptoms. Especially if she had been up there standing and cooking for a while. If the shock was that bad, she'd just throw it back up on you. Between a ruptured cyst and blood-pressure meds, that could get you in trouble.

With HDTV, you can hear almost every line call at home. When we played Indy it was fun listening to Peyton go through his jumble-jargon. Saban can sit at home in his panties with a bag of cheetos and figure it out.

Berman=strung up by Disney/NFL I stopped watching him the day he "appologized" for us poor folks having to watch Rush Limbaugh. There is a difference between what Rush said and what Kramer said at the comedy club.

There is a solid chance that we will still be alive going into week 17. That would be nuts! We would still need 4 or 5 teams to lose, but that would still be neat considering the deflated feeling surrounding this team just a month ago. Thanks for keeping the thread going.

I've never seen JP look as bad as Cutler has tonight. Everyone is so high on this guy....I guess he needs a few games to learn. Denver is still up by 6. Crazy.