I'd say that USC is the only real threat to Michigan's shot at the Bucks again...but just for fun.
Michigan
Rundown: They are in the drivers seat...but there is nothing they can do but sit and wait. Pretty clearly the 2nd best team in the nation, but not everyone thinks they should get another shot.
What needs to happen: USC loss or close win, Florida loss or close win, ND not beating USC by more than 40, Mike Hart not breaking an ankle in the shower.
Chance of Success: 60%
USC
Rundown: They actually have their destiny ALMOST completely in their hands. All it will take is two very convincing wins to get them into the big game. Beat ND by 14+ and UCLA by the same and I think we have a weiner. They have the fact that a rematch is unpopular going for them too.
What needs to happen: Two convincing wins, Florida not torching FSU and SEC winner and a little luck from the polls.
Chance of Success: 25%
Florida
Rundown: In decent shape, and they can make their case with a big win over Arkansas in SEC title game. But they will most likely need USC to lose or at least stumble.
What needs to happen: Convincing wins over FSU and Arkansas (and I mean more convincing than USC), USC loss and a lot of luck from the polls
Chance of Success: 10%
Notre Dame
Rundown: Michigan blowout will be their undoing...making that game closer could end up being the difference maker. Would be in decent shape, but even if stars align, it would take a minor miracle to jump the Wolverines in any poll.
What needs to happen: Huge win over USC, Florida loss and/or Arkansas loss (probably both) and some serious luck of the Irish.
Chance of Success: 4%
Arkansas
Rundown: Basically elminated, but the USC blowout was ages ago. The stars need to align big time.
What needs to happen: USC over ND, UCLA over USC, Florida over FSU then two HUGE wins over LSU and Florida.
Chance of Success: 1%
Bart says: Michigan
I don't like it, but I don't see any other way. I don't see USC beating ND and even if they do, I can't see it being by more than 10. The rest have too much ground to make up...a little too late.