1B4IDie

Doesn't look like McKelvin fumbles in that one: http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2008111700/2008/REG11/browns@bills#tab:analyze We lost on a less memorable Wide right. Buffalo Bills at 01:39 4-P.Dawson kicks 45 yards from CLV 30 to BUF 25. 22-F.Jackson to BUF 44 for 19 yards (16-J.Cribbs). 1-10-BUF 44 (1:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass deep middle to 84-R.Royal to CLV 34 for 22 yards (52-D.Jackson). Caught at CLV 38. 1-10-CLE 34 (1:03) 23-M.Lynch right guard to CLV 32 for 2 yards (55-W.McGinest, 92-S.Rogers). Timeout #1 by CLV at 00:56. 2-8-CLE 32 (:56) 23-M.Lynch up the middle to CLV 30 for 2 yards (20-M.Adams). Timeout #2 by CLV at 00:49. 3-6-CLE 30 (:49) 23-M.Lynch left tackle to CLV 29 for 1 yard (99-C.Williams). Timeout #3 by CLV at 00:43. 4-5-CLE 29 (:43) 9-R.Lindell 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.

Dude!!! Week 1 Monday Night Football. Bills Have the lead against the Gatriots a few minutes left in the 4th QTR, McKelvin catches the ball 4 yards deep in the end zone, and for some stupid reason he pulls it out! The Patriots basically catch McKelvin mid stride, hold him up in the air, and have some other player come in and strip the ball. Patriots recover, and end up winning the game. How can you forget!!!! You can actually still watch the low light here: http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2009091400/2009/REG1/bills@patriots#tab:watch Play by Play: http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2009091400/2009/REG1/bills@patriots/analyze#analyze:analyze/analyze-channels:cat-post-playbyplay Buffalo Bills at 02:06 3-S.Gostkowski kicks 72 yards from NE 30 to BUF -2. 28-L.McKelvin to BUF 31 for 33 yards (58-P.Woods). FUMBLES (58-P.Woods), RECOVERED by NE-3-S.Gostkowski at BUF 31. 3-S.Gostkowski to BUF 31 for no gain (21-J.Wendling). If McKelvin just takes a knee in the end zone the Bills losing streak to the Patriots ends.

So you originally compared Mendenhall, and Steve Jackson with Spiller, and now you decided to change your tune. Now its, "well Steven Jackson was drafted 15 spots after CJ Spiller. So If you're drafted #24 you get a year, if you're drafted #9 you don't get a year." Awesome opinion, thanks. Spiller has had little impact through the first 12 games and was drafted with #9 pick. Great, you accessed the obvious, Amazing analysis. No one is arguing the obvious. Care to offer anything original or insightful? Its Week 14 Spiller is on the roster, what do you suggest the Bills do? (As a side note the Oakland Raiders are 6-6 and have an outside chance at a Wild Card. Also even though ESPN likes to make fun of Al Davis outside of JaWalrus and Darrius Heyward-Bey, they have had 4 years of very good draft picks that are making a difference on the field. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rai/draft.htm) Its easy to be "right" when you state the obvious, have to wait years to be proved wrong, and ignore direct questions. What happens when Spiller has back to back 1,000 yards in 2013 and 2014 on a Bills' playoff run? Was it still a wasted pick then?

Nice assessment. Thanks for the time you put into the post it is very good. However I would argue that using Bills historical receiving records as an objective ruler is flawed. A truer measure would be NFL reviving averages on a year by year basis for the same time period Lee Played. Which would prove to be average at best. Also assigning a safety to watch the deep route is not as detrimental to the defenses ability to cover the entire field as you are giving credit. A Safety will cover the entire half of the field 20-30 yards off of the line of scrimmage. If a pass is thrown the safety will react to the ball. It doesn't mean that the rest of the receivers are wide open. Not to mention that it doesn't happen nearly as often as some Bills' fans believe. If you look at the aforementioned TD drop by Stevie Johnson. He was covered by a CB and a Safety over top, yet he still got open. He just wasn't able to catch the pass, he was thinking of what he was going to do for his TD celebration. He took a smart angle on the coverage, which something Lee still has trouble recognizing and adjusting to. The best objective measure would be a break down of Lee Evans catches. Inside the hashes as compared to outside the hashes as well as length of the pass. I would guess that an extremely large percentage of passes received would be outside of the hashes, and I would also guess that an abnormally % of receptions would be for 20+ yards as compared to other receives that have played at the same time in the NFL as Lee Evans. Don't get me wrong Lee Evans is a good receiver, just not great. He would be an outstanding complementary receiver to a more complete WR. 50 Catches and 800 yards a year average is not impressive by any stretch of the imagination and it is embarrassing that 7 years of that pedestrian production puts Lee Evans as the #3 WR in Bills history.

They are definitely not NCAA eligible once they have been drafted. Its not like the NBA where you can declare and not get an agent, then if you're not drafted you can retain your eligibility. However who knows if the NCAA will allow this type of arrangement this year.The NCAA isn't really fast acting and they would have to announce something soon so that players don't sign with an agent; if the player signs with an agent its not likely they would be allowed any eligibility in any plausibly scenario. The Draft is basically an agreement between team owners on how to divvy up new prospects. They don't want to create bidding wars for new players. There is no explicit agreement between the player and the team that drafted him. (Technically to enter the draft you have to sign a whole bunch of agreements but we're just summarizing here) Contract negotiations for top drafted players don't really heat up until June and July leading into camp. If the lockout lasts until camp and the regular season, the drafted players are free to do whatever they like. If they want to ask their university to continue to pursue their degree as a non scholarship student they can do that, if they want to play in the UFL, CFL, or Arena League they can do that(if Arena wasn't partially owned by the NFL they would be smart to have a fall season.) However if they blow a knee, they can cost themselves money when the NFL gets their **** together and it is time to negotiate a contract. The team that drafted them owns the rights to the player until March 1, 2012. If for some reason there is still no CBA in place, I believe there is still a college draft and the player can choose to reenter the draft for 2012.

Agree 100%. In this mock Moch is the pick in the 3rd. Let some other team ponder if Ponder is an NFL quality QB.

Lee will most likely always be on lists like this. He is excellent at running in a straight line down the sideline and faster than almost CBs and all Safeties. Asking him to run a different route or to go over the middle is where Lee cones up average to below average. There is a risk/reward to going long but you have to take a few shots a game and Lee is one of the best in the game at the fly route.

Monitor the stadium wall on gameday. Someone might give you a shout. ;-) (This above is code that many times there are links to streams of the game in the shoutbox, but I didn't want to type that out incase Rodger would see . . . d'oh!)

I've suggested the Middle name of my kid be Buffalo. The wife isn't too psyched. I think I can make it happen though.

Levitre will be able to mold our Wang into a rock hard penetrater of the interior of the defense, like Wood. If this game goes longer than 4 hours I'm going to have to call a physician, I can't take another OT game. Lets stick with the Erection Company. (rooster Blockers are bad, no one likes rooster blockers in real life. They prevent good things from happening. You can't root for a rooster blocker.)

The Erection Company in effect.

The Erection Company is finally coming to fruition!!! Levitre + Wang = Wood We need DeMarcus Love from Arkansas to play RT because Sometimes you have to her gently. http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?prospect_id=2510

Good point. I don't have time to google that but if someone does the research please post. I'd guess that Marcell Dareus might be a team Captain, Bowers might be as well. I doubt Fairley or Clayborn were team captains. And Quinn might be Captain of the couch potatoes but I don't think that counts.

Wow you were able to do the "We have a Pro Bowl QB!" and "Being a Pro Bowl QB is not important he was actually #5 not #3 on the Pro Bowl voting so it doesn't count." In the same post. Congratulations.

If you notice my OP is kind of pointless. I'm glad you all brought up the UT issue, I wanted to add that rumor about the FO not liking UT but I got pulled into a meeting. Also I wanted to add that Sam Acho just won William Campbell award for top Student Athlete, which sounds pretty impressive to me: http://collegesportsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/12/longhorns-de-sam-acho-wins-campbell-awar.html. The "Academic Heisman" As far as avoiding UT players my thoughts: Its completely silly to rule out an entire successful DI program. However if you think about Top UT players in the NFL, there has been a lot of misses. Benson, Ricky Williams were both head cases that didn't work out well for they're original team and definitely didn't live up to the same heights in the NFL as they did in College Football. Mike Williams, Derrick Dockery are both turnstiles. Roy E Williams, and Vince Young never materialized, atleast not yet. Chris Simms, didn't either. I think Michael Huff started off slow, I think he is having a good year this year but he definitely had some issues as the #7 overall pick. Really not until Orakpo was there a top 20 draft pick from UT in the last 15 years that made an immediate impact or lived up to their billing, unless there is someone I'm forgetting. http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/alumni-tracker/school/6882 If you've ever been to Austin, or on the UT campus, these guys are gods. Basically the extreme of the stereotypical spoiled athletes. They can do no wrong, and have everything handed to them. Its a big personal transition to being a rookie in a Blue Color town like Buffalo. In a notional way it kind of make sense but its silly to use this as a criteria not to draft someone. It is a strange coincidence that there are a lot of big name, early flops from 1 school. It seems the FO may be so scared of picking more flops they're ruling out a school that has a reputation for NFL flops. If avoiding UT players is true it shows a lack of confidence in the quality of the Bills' scouting. That being said, this Acho kid seems special to me, I didn't realize all the captain, and academic stuff until now. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills "reach" on the guy and take him in the second based on Nix drafting style in 2010.

I agree from the Eye Test McKelvin looks like a much more explosive Kick returner. The problem is in the last 2 seasons he has 18 KR, 4 fumbles, and 3 Lost Fumbles, that means he is fumbling on 22% of his Kick Returns. It is too risky, when you turn the ball over on a kick return, you are putting a tired defense that most likely just gave up a score back on the field and most likely the opposing team has great field position if not already in scoring position. It is a huge game changer. The risk is too high. Its better to start your offense at the 20 or 30 with a less explosive kick returner than have McKelvin fumble the ball 1 out of every 5 returns. Its not even worth working on it in practice imo. He needs to work on better technique as a CB. He still doesn't turn his head and identify the ball when the ball is being thrown. He watches the numbers of the reviver, thats how you get PI calls or get yourself out of position to make a play on the reception. When you watch the receivers numbers you're just a bystander to the catch and then have to react after the catch is made. He is a superior athlete so he can react quickly but he needs to put himself in better position to breakup the catch. He really needs a lot of work and training to be a better CB, and not just rely on his athletic ability. I worry that he may not be willing or understand the amount of work he needs to put in to be a CB, not just an athletic football player.

I was at the game in Cleveland in 2007. It was horrible. I caught a bad flu or food poisoning or just a natural reaction to being in Cleveland and had both ends spewing all night. I drugged up, manned up and went to the game. I don't know if I was hallucinating from all the drugs but the waves coming off Lake Erie were surreal. You can see the lake from the Stadium (imagine that a stadium on the Lake) I never saw 15-20 foot waves crashing over the breakers on the Lake before. The entire upperdeck that was on the receiving end of the wind cleared out. No one could take. You can see the few brave people huddled in the hallways to the seats on the upper deck. We were at pretty much the top of the stadium across from the wind swept side and Luckily there was some type of huge banner facing the outside that ended up acting like a dug out for us to give us some shelter. That definitely sucked. With that mix of sleet and snow it sounds like the game on Sunday is going to suck almost as bad as that game.

I think the Atlanta Falcons started this search in 2003.

Awesome!

I really liked Sam Acho, the guy is a captain, played hard on a unusually bad Longhorns team, and is a great student athlete. I was hoping he would be there on the 3rd, now I highly doubt it. He fits an immediate need for the Bills. He can play OLB on a 3-4 and possibly DE in a 4-3. He would be a great rushbacker. http://collegesportsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/12/longhorns-de-sam-acho-wins-campbell-awar.html http://www.nfldraftbible.com/Players/List/2011-Big-Board/Sam-Acho.html I would be very happy if he was wearing Red, White, and Buffalo Bill in 2011.

What do you mean by that?

Not defending Modrak or the Maybin pick but what about his assessment is incorrect? Besides "makes it good for us." Maybin does try he just is in an undersized body, and I am the driver of the Maybin hater brigade. Mabin is fast and light. That doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement more like an impartial assessment. “He’s good on both sides of the ball, right or left defensive end which is not always the case for players,” said Modrak. “His quick first step is equally good on both sides of the ball. And he can run. When he gets in the open field he can chase you down. He’s a speed rusher and can get up the field. He plays very, very hard all the time. Talking to their people there he has the same mentality in practice. The combination of those things made it good for us.” Here is the Bills draft history: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/draft.htm And you're right there may be a myth about these late round picks. I really only see Kyle Williams, Stevie Johnson, D. Bell, Mario Haggan, Sam Aiken (good special teamers)and Terrence McGee that were any kind of contributer that was drafted after the 4th round since 2000. The entire 2002-2005 were complete garbage save for Lee Evans, Kelsay, Crowell, Roscoe Parrish and McGahee

This is a pretty compelling case. Again good points. You can kind of make excuses for McCargo, or Lynch, or Donte, or McKelvin, even Mike Williams, or JP Lossman but when you add them all up and then on top you add Maybin, which should have had a "Do Not Draft" grade, all the bodies do point to the quality of scouting information. What explains the higher hit ratio later in the draft?

I agree that his fair, but he does have some awesome slip ups. Which every one has when you talk for 4 hours straight. Its usually funny though, I never really got too pissed at the color guy other than Randy Cross, who clearly does not watch the NFL. Randy Cross just shows up at game time and starts talking about Dan Marino or Coach Landry. Against the Steelers Wilcots said " Mike Williams . . .err. . . Mark Williams . . . err Mike Wallace" That was funny. The guys I was watching the game with starting make fun of that one "Mike Williams . .. Err . . .Erik Flowers . . .err Aaron Maybin."

I'm sorry I didn't know Modrak suits up and plays on Sunday or coaches the team during the week. People are calling for Modrak's head because we are 2-10? Yes the Bills have been a failure for 10 years. Modrak's job appears to be managing the talent evaluation of individual players, including the individual talent evaluators (He doesn't do it all by himself.) On an individual by individual player basis the Bills have gotten good talent in rounds 3-7 as well as undrafted free agents. The Bills have gotten very little value on an individual player by player basis from rounds 1 and 2. The point is we hear rumors that coaches, GMs and owners have been meddling with the High Round draft picks, IF Modrak's scouting has lead to the quality late round picks and undrafted free agents then his scouting is actually doing a good job on an individual by individual basis. Which is Modrak's job, scout quality football players. It is the GMs' responsibility to draft and sign the scouted players, the Coaches' responsibility to coach the players, and the players' individual responsibility to play well. IF Modrak is responsible for the decade of early draft futility then yes there needs to be accountability. Either way Firing Modrak is going to have little effect on the Bills record. If you want to make him a likely scapegoat for GM, coaching, and owner meddling go ahead. If that happens and picks 3-7 go south too, then the mystery is finally solved.