Sharp money in Vegas is coming in on the Packers. Public betting super lopsided on the Bills. Just seeing the narratives that the Bills are going to obliterate the Packers makes me uneasy. Rodgers covers as an underdog the majority of the time and his back is against the wall. The Packers defense is also built to stop the pass and has the #1 defense in yards per game. They are also a relatively efficient red zone defense.
Bills big blowout wins have been against teams that are built to run and struggle to pass, with the exception of the Rams. Difference between Packers and Rams are Rams are horrifically inefficient in the red zone, while the Packers are more efficient than the Bills.
Essentially I’m saying the Packers have the capability to shorten this game, with a strong pass defense, good run game and capable QB play. The Bills will also be incentivized to run the ball as it’s Green Bay’s biggest weakness.
counter argument to this of course is they lost to the Jets by 17. my counter point is if you look at the box score the Jets should have never won by 17. Blocked punt for a TD. Awful passing numbers. We also don’t have a home run threat on the ground like Breece Hall
I suspect this to be low scoring, and the Packers to keep it within 7-10. Bills win though. Something like 24-14.
To be clear I don’t think there’s any way the Bills lose, nor do I think it will “feel” close. I just think the 10.5 is a suckers bet and all the fans saying they want to tease it to 17 or 21 points are nuts.