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JimBob2232

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Everything posted by JimBob2232

  1. I do not have a position in US Steel. I have never had a position in US Steel. This stock is up, not by some fluke, but because the price of commodities has increased due to years of low production and infastructure development. Coincidentally, many commodities stocks have similar charts. We should have seen this bull commodites market coming. The signs were there. Hopefully next time I will be able to get in before its too late. Heck, i'm not even defending US Steel here. It may be a terrible investment. (And my personal opinion on commodities is that we are nearing the end of this Bull Market). I am simply stating that to rule out an entire industry when looking for stocks that meet your mechanical screening criteria is a bad plan. But then again, I know people who still refuse to test drive a Ford because they had problems with the Pinto they had back in 77. Ford could be giving away new mustangs for $500 bucks and they wouldnt touch 'em. Bottom line is this. If a company is making money, and will continue to make money in the future, then at some share price, that stock is a good buy. Whether the comany makes Cars, Paper Plates, Coal, Steel, Semi-Conductors or Chineese Fingercuffs, it doesnt matter. If the company makes 1M per year, It makes 1M per year. And if you can buy the whole company for 200k, BUY THE COMPANY (even if it makes chineese fingercuffs). If the same company is for sale at 50M, its probably not a good buy. The stock price (for a profitable company) determines whether a company is a good buy.
  2. If second rate gets me a 700% gain in 4 years, I'll take it.
  3. Well, if you really want to get into it, Personally I take more of a Benjamin Graham approach, which (by the way), is who Buffett learned the lions share of what he knows. But thats neither here nor there. Its pretty similar actually. I am not saying United States Steel is a good company, I am also not saying its a good investment. I dont have an opinion on this stock right now. I would need to do alot more research before I can even get close to that. This doesnt change the fact that it would have been a good investment a few years ago. There was a fundamental market shift in the price of commodities which drove the stock price to where it is today. You can learn from that, and maybe catch it the next time it happens. This wasnt just the market going crazy for no reason. The commodities market drove the price. I dont disagree with your statement to invest in what you know, a wide moat and low P/E and D/E. But lets look at this a little closer. What you know - One of the most important things you can know is to know what you dont know. But there is nothing stopping you from learning about the Steel Industry. There is nothign stopping you fom reading about what some of the industry experts and top investors think about the industry. There (should be) nothing stopping you from picking up an annual report and reading it to gain understanding. Just because its the steel industry and you dont understand it, doesnt mean you should just be content knowing nothing about it. Wide Moat - For a long term investment, this is important. If it is a shorter term investment, not so much. P/E ratios - I hate this ratio. Published ratios are often wrong, and are usually trailing P/Es. The fundamental idea of low P/E is good, I just wish the reliablity of the published numbers was more reliable. D/E ratio - Anything less than one works for me. Financial stocks may be higher. Not necessarily sure lower=better, but too much=bad. Price/Book Ratio is another one I like to use. But all these are just ratios, numbers on a peice of paper. You need to dig further into a company than these numbers before investing. And to blindly state "I will never invest in a US Steel Company" is just ingnorance.
  4. Well for starters, if you refuse to "invest" in a company simply because of the industry it is in, or the origin of that company, you are not investing at all. You are Gambling. Secondly, Look at the chart from 1991 to present http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=X&t=my If you invested in 2003, you would have made nearly 700%. Hardly sounds like something not worth your time looking into. Stop gambling and start investing. Would you rather buy a brand new honda civic for $100,000 or a 5 year old civic for $3,000? One is clearly a better vehicle, but the price you pay for it is ridiculously high compared to the alternative. Stocks work the same way. Just because its a good company doenst mean its a good investiment. And the converse is true as well. Just because its a bad company doesnt *necessarily* mean its a bad investment.
  5. Simple rule of investing by Uncle JimBob. As soon as you start hearing friends, coworkers, relatives, random guy in the resturaunt or on the street start talking about how easy it is to make money in a particular investment vehicle, its time to take your money and run. Conversely, As soon as you hear those same people start talking about how bad an investment is, time to start buying. Case in Point. Stock Market circa 2000. EVERYONE was making money. Couldnt miss, especially on the NASDAQ. SUNW, JDSU, CMGI, CIEN, LNUX and others. Think about the year when you first heard your coworkers, friends or family talking about them. 1999? 2000? 2001? Then look at the chart and see how their "cant miss" investment would have fared. Case #2. Federal Employees can relate to this one. The I fund in the Thrift Savings Plan (a.k.a. 401K), which basically tracks the MSCI EAFE Index, was up near 30 percent on the year. Everyone was jumping in..AFTER IT WAS UP 30%... People started talking about it in the office, you would see people log into their accounts at work and make transfers to the I fund. Then in just a couple short months, it fell over 15 percent. SHOCKER. Case #3. Who cared about commodities 5 years ago? NOBODY. Commodity prices were at an all time low. Now, everyone is starting to "invest" in Gold, Copper, Pork Bellies and anything else they can get in a 50 gallon drum. Why would anyone want to invest in something crazy like commodities, while real estate was going through the roof....Now Commodities are going through the roof. Now people are noticing. But its too late. Today real estate is "Cant Miss" which scares me alot. There are some compelling reasons why real estate wont fall drastically like the stock market, mainly because there is some resistance to sell a home for a loss. But more and more properties are investment properties. Rising interest payments, and Mortgage Payments. Increasing Defaults. Fewer Buyers. Its a recipie for disaster if you're not careful. But I know, I know, Real Estate Never Goes Down.... ....Neither did JDS Uniphase.
  6. The highest player signed thus far (and I may be mistaken if someone signed in the last day or two) is a 4th rounder. With the exception of Mario Williams who had a deal signed on draft day.
  7. Bilge Rats Poop Deckers Buccin' Maroons Buccin' Scurvy Buccin' Poop Deck Basically Buccin' makes me laugh...no wait...thats what she said.
  8. Whats the salary? If its more than about oh...80k a year, I might be interested. More to the point, any chance I can schedule an interview on Opening Day?
  9. Need (MANY) more details...
  10. I agree. JP was not good last year. Anyone who says differently is delusional. HOWEVER, when you watch him on tape, a few things are apparent. 1) He feels pressure in the pocket when no pressure exists 2) He gets happy feet and takes off running too soon. 3) He has a good arm, and generally makes good decisions with the football. So, while he lacked success last season, I think there are enough signs of light where he deserves another season to shine. QBs take varying lengths of time to develop, and yes some never do. Look how long it took Drew Brees to develop. To throw away all we have invested in him at this point is a bad plan. Also, why was it that we seemed to be unstopable on the first drive of every game, and downright pitiful the second half of the game? I think it was conditioning, and I have been saying that for a long time. I find it ironic willis has lost weight, as well as others on the team. I really think we were not conditioned well (Good move with Rusty Jones...). And it sounds like a broken record, but GIVE THE GUY AN OLINE. If JP gets comfortable in the pocket, the team is conditioned properly, and the play calling improves, I think we are in for a surprise on offense this year. Thats alot of IFs...but JP shows more signs of upside than some of you give him credit for.
  11. But it wont mean as much as the one he wins in buffalo
  12. Not to dispute your point...but Bledsoe HAS one of those!
  13. Scout.com is a reputible site..but any article is only as good as where the info comes from... Still, thought this was interesting http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=126&p=2&c=544132 Buffalo Bills – As scout.com reported earlier this year, the Minnesota Vikings were very interested in signing free agent QB Craig Nall. The problem was they wouldn’t give him any assurances that he would be given a chance to compete for the starting job which is why he signed with the Bills. Not only is he being given a chance to compete for the job, those who watched their off-season practices noted that Nall was the most impressive of the three competing for the No.1 spot. Nall showed the ability to get the ball in to tight areas and on time which is an important facet of offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild’s scheme. Another player to watch on the offensive side of the ball is TE Robert Royal who was essentially used as a blocker previously with the Washington Redskins. Royal, a former fifth-round pick in 2002, had a very good week of Senior Bowl practices so it was a surprise to some that he wasn’t used more as a receiver in the first four years of his career (29 catches). With the club lacking a physical presence at the receiver position, Royal’s role with his new team could certainly increase.
  14. Ya know, I'm not even going to touch this. If you cant be mature enough to get beyond "Bush = Bad" and have an intellegent comment on the merits of the discussion, I am sorry for you.
  15. One thing you cannot forget. Whether it is right or wrong, the President has the authority to declassify information. Once information is declassified, it is free reign. This, of course, is where it starts to get muddy. Was it really "leaked"? Was it authrized to be"leaked" (a.k.a. declassified)? So again, 2 issues here. 1) Who is leaking the information, was it authorized? and 2) Why is the press allowed to report information known to be classified. If you take the president for his word, and I think you have to, then he is doing everything he can to keep america safe. Things are classified for a reason.
  16. Drew Bledsoe...More annoying than Dr. Phil and Big Brother And somehow Elliot Yamin is #15 on the "least annoying" list
  17. Ya know... both sides of this argument are messed up. I tend to think the adminstation is reacting to an irrisponsible media, but really its the chicken and the egg connundrum. The press has the right (the freedom if you will) to interrogate and publish what it sees fit. However, they SHOULD (but are not obligated to), protect information which, if released, would be detrimental to the United States. Example: Lets say the government has good, solid intellegence that 3 terrorists plan a meeting at a hotel in Chicago. The FBI plans on waiting until they are in the hotel and then conducting a raid. The press gets ahold of this story (another issue entirely). And then they report it on the front page of the news. Now the terrorists decide not to meet, and the next week they blow up the sears tower. This is a fictional case, sure, but clearly the media is in possession of classified material. Is it illegal to report the story? Thats a legal argument. They certainally have freedom of the press, but I work for the Federal Government. If I disclose information, I go to jail. Freedom of speech doesnt cover me there. Freedom of the press shouldnt give them immunity either. And what about the Sears Tower? In the fictional scenerio above, should the Publisher be held liable? What if you personally went up to one of the terrorists and said "hey, they feds know you are going to be here on thursday". Would you expect to be detained? I think the answer is obvious. Another question entirely is who is leaking this information. What motive do they have to leak the information. Is information being strategically leaked out for tactical reasons (or are they politically motivated). Crimes are being committed and the press refuses to act responsibly, causing the administration to fall back into a cacoon and disclose little. Then when the press gets a little bit of information they go crazy over it in, what often appears to be, a blatent attempt at revenge against a secrative administration they helped create. The solution: Prosecute the leakers. Disclose infomation only to organizations that behave responsibly. Prosecute to the extent possible, unethical news organizations. Elect new leaders, elect new congressmen, stop buying newspapers, stop watching CNN....Nextel. Done.
  18. Ontarrio Smith - Whizzinator Kellen Winslow - Heisman Pose / Motorcycle And Honorable Mention Phillip Rivers - Could have (and likely would have) been the starting QB if he signed a contract...Brees came in and played well. 3 years later he is finally a starting QB.
  19. Intersquad scrimmage. Need 2 punters. ST drills, need several punters... Moorman needs a rest, need another punter...lots of reasons for this. This guy knows this. He isnt trying to make the roster. He IS trying to prove that he can play. He is trying to show other teams they should bring him in for a look. And frankly, no matter how good moorman is, a little competition should be welcomed for any player.
  20. Yeah.... Intersquad scrimmage. Need 2 punters. ST drills, need several punters... Moorman needs a rest, need another punter...lots of reasons for this. This guy knows this. He isnt trying to make the roster. He IS trying to prove that he can play. He is trying to show other teams they should bring him in for a look. And frankly, no matter how good moorman is, a little competition should be welcomed for any player.
  21. The point is moot. The minimum wage is a bad concept and raising it (even to adjust for COL) is a bad idea.
  22. You cant live off 5.15 an hour. You cant even live off 6.15 an hour. Maybe Gavin is right. The minimum wage should be something where you can live off of. Is 15 dollars/hour enough? hmm... maybe it should be 20/hr. Personally, i'd like to make 50/hr. Maybe that should be the minimum, then everyone can get rich!
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