BuffOrange

Yah, it's not really about how many more pts Brees scores vs Chris Johnson, it's how much does he outscore the Mannings/Romo/Rivers/Ryan etc. Sanchez had as many points as Foster last year...

Got to go with Nicks if he's playing and that's the alternative. I do <3 Williams as a late round flyer guy with good upside but c'mon, starting him over Nicks week 1 is fancy play syndrome.

This is insane. "Until proven otherwise" is a phrase that should never be used for a fantasy defense. The top ones change every year. Anyone who picks the 49ers deserves to lose and probably will because they're always taken about 7 rounds too early. You can usually get the Bills in the 2nd to last round provided you're not in a league with other Bills homers.

I don't like this team at all in a 10team league. The 2nd round is too early for whoever you picked there, Andre or Peterson I guess. Would've rather used the Finley pick on a RB/WR and picked up a TE later. You don't really need 2 qb's much less 3 when you have Rodgers - drop Freeman for a lottery ticket RB/WR - Bernard Scott, Daniel Thomas, Mike Williams, someone like that.

Though this recent theory is more true than it was, I still don't entirely buy it. The elite QB's last year outscored the mid-tier QBs' by an unprecedented amount last year. It remains to be seen whether that will be the norm. Personally I am a bit skeptical that last year wasn't an outlier. Before Rodgers threw 45 TD's last year he threw 28, 30, and 28. In the three years before & after Peyton's record 49, he threw for 26, 27, 29, 28, 31, and 31. There's probably going to be some regression here. Plus Rivers for example had a career-worst year and he should be a lot better this yr which will further close the gap. Going QB (this goes for TE as well) first also limits your flexibility of picking your value later on, since you only play one. Like if some QB you like really drops unexpectedly you kinda have to ignore him & look elsewhere. Just something to think about. I do think Brady is a perfectly reasonable 1st round pick because of how safe he is if you don't trust any of the available RB's. I probably would've taken Rodgers 4th in my league if the big 3 RB's were gone but I wouldn't have felt great about it. And yah I never understood the conundrum of taking a player on a team you hate. The simple answer is if you're torn on what to root for when he's playing the Bills, you're not much of a fan.

They had a fine game offensively. "At will" might be stretching it - a tipped ball to Brad Smith was responsible for 1 of the TD's. Plus we did nothing in the 1st game.

It's either the QB, or Brady & Manning have been exceptionally lucky to never have one of these awful playcallers in their combined 23 years in the league. I think you probably should care who the QB is.

That's true of most backfields. Late 3rd of a 14teamer is great value for Fred.

That's a $ league? Wow i really need to join one or five of those.

I was thinking about this too before I just drew the 4th pick in my league; so fortunately I don't have to deal with it. But I would probably take a chance on McFadden there. "But he's always hurt". Yah well, as you pointed out everyone has warts on them at that point so you're taking a chance on someone with some question marks no matter who it is. In that case I think the lesser of two evils is gambling with a guy who has lots of upside if he does actually stay healthy & could end up being the #1 back. Keep an eye on Mathews' injury too - he might be sliding down boards a little too far given that he was the clear #4 or 5 RB last week (at least imo). MJD & Forte would probably be the conventional picks, and maybe a bit safer. I'm with you on not wanting Stafford/Newton/TE that early though; it's a crappy spot this yr, that's for sure.

Pretty hard to say without knowing who was kept and who was available when. I like White fine in general but if Freddy was available in the late 3rd (which is hard to believe unless it was reverse snake?) I'm assuming there were some good RB options available in the 2nd. So I likely would've gone somebody like a Steven Jackson 2nd and then come back with something like one of the Eagles, Cowboys, or Steelers WR's in the 4th if any of them were available (WR is crazy deep this year) and then pick up a Rivers or Ryan for QB later. In any case your 1-2 at WR is obviously great for a 14 team league and I think Romo will be fine. With Jhavid Best out for a while you should be able to platoon a decent RB2 with Kevin Smith & Donald Brown. You obviously need Freddy to stay healthy.

There's only two guys that are comparable.

I'm not as high on Stafford/Newton as most so I like waiting on QB if I don't get 1 of the big 3 studs, though I realize I am in the minority there. Murray in the 3rd I like. I think you got good value for Greene/Spiller/Redman/Bradshaw too. Don't really like Cruz & Nelson as high as they're going - they're like the poster boys of unsustainable TD #'s last year. I have no issue with Boldin or Young late but I'd want WR's with more upside than Garcon/Manningham/Meachum in the later rounds - guys like that can always be found on the waiver wire of a 10team league. I would avoid Helu and any Redskins RB like the plague. Stop drafting kickers in the 3rd to last round. Not terrible though I obv. would've done a lot different; a lot comes down to personal preference. I like the Bills D too!

Yah, it's not that hard to understand. Also note that you play fewer teams with a winning record when you're 13-3 because to beat a team with a winning record, that team needs to go 9-6 in their other 15 games, or if it's a division team you sweep, 9-5 in their other 14 games to have a winning record. Denver, SD, Oakland, NYJ, Dallas, & Philly all would've had winning records if they had beaten NE & 4 of those games were on the road.

That would be an understatement. I'll go ahead and issue an open challenge to anyone who can correctly pick 6 teams to not make the playoffs. $100. If NE wins the East there are 4 spots 'locked up' in the AFC though, that's true.

This is true. Look at how often the #7 and 8 seeds advance in the nhl vs the nba. Upsets can happen in basketball, but there's no lucky bounce of the puck off someone's skate. Our college kids would get wrecked by the Spains of the world.

Where did you see this? Pinnacle has 7.5. Not regurgitating last year's standings like everyone else always does doesn't make them wrong. You probably didn't see the Chiefs as 10-6 two years ago when they were coming off of 4-12 either (FO had them winning the division that year).

Check out fantasyfootball calculator and do some mock drafts - they're quick and easy. That will give you a rough idea where players are being taken. Tinker those or any rankings to your personal preference and make a draft board using tiers. You say you haven't done well lately but really who cares whether you finish 3rd or 7th. Take some risks to win it. I don't mean something stupid like taking Cam Newton 1st overall. But like if I'm deciding between Wes Welker and AJ Green in the 3rd round I'm taking the guy with Megatron-like skills every time even if Welker has a >50% chance of having the better year. Ya know, upside. FF is a lot like sex & poker in that everyone thinks they're better than they are. A lot of guys who brag about all the leagues they've won play in like 17 leagues every year so it really means nothing. There is a ton of luck involved, particularly in 1 and done playoff scenerios. It's your team so do what you want.

This. I personally prefer McCoy but whatever; I'm fine with Foster/Rice/McCoy there. QB is way too deep to take 1st. You can win your league with a Romo or Vick or Newton if you stockpile other positions. Schaub & Rivers are also going very late this yr. More interesting is what to do if you're like 6th this year. I think Megatron would be the first non-RB I'd take.

I think you can at least make an argument for most of those guys. But yah putting Michael Turner ahead of FJ is pretty much a joke. He's a 'high volume' rusher with average production and getting worse every year.

Cliffnotes: Louisiana has the same layout as Buffalo but the fans are better 'cause it's 90 degrees. Thanks Josh!

Yah, even on the topic of stuff I don't really care about the analysis was puzzling. I thought the Jets & Broncos both finished 8-8 last year but apparently it required a lot of skill for the latter team to play in an awful division and "find a way to make the playoffs". Then there was Hugh Douglas' weird infatuation with Ocho Cinco and David Garrard & how he's miles better than Matt Moore. The Bills segment was almost reasonable by comparison.

Yeah, just because our crappy backup DLmen are more experienced than Searcy doesn't mean we'd be in less trouble. Given the choice of replacing: Very good player ---> known lousy player at a key position or OK player ---> unknown (probably lousy) player at a less important position.. I think I'm taking option #2 every time. Maybe if Wilson were Ed Reed or something it'd be close.

It's not about assuming we're going to be completely healthy all year like the 2008 Dolphins were. It's more about assuming "league average injury luck" which is really all anyone can reasonably do for any team at this point. I never bought the injury excuse in 2007 when we led the league in players on IR because basically our crappy defensive starters were replaced by equally inept backups (some of the backups like George Wilson and Jabari Greer were actually better than the starters). But you take away a team's best lineman on both sides of the ball plus Fred Jackson - that certainly hurts.

Yah, defense is more about players than chemistry. See 2003 when we went from horrible to pretty good on that side of the ball almost overnight. And Kyle Williams...I don't know, changing 3/4's of one of the most important units on the field and turning that weakness into a strength is not insignificant. This is true, there aren't many wild card spots available. We have to beat the Tennessees of the world head to head. The non-existent pass-rush hurt us in the 2nd game last yr, sure. But it's really been a little of everything. The offense was futile in the last 2 home games vs them and the run defense was abysmal in both 2010 games. Basically they've just been a better team but I'm not sure they still are.