BuffOrange

Couple thoughts: - I got to thinking this weekend about parity & the importance of QB in the modern game. And then it sort of hit me. There has to be a correlation there. Not sure why I've never heard this theory in countless hours of listening/watching/reading football; but it seems sort of obvious. If the rosters are more equal than they've ever been, then having a stud at the most important position has to count for more than ever. A lot more. Just compare the non-QB rosters when healthy. At how many positions are the Pats clearly superior? TE & LB? Probably OL now with Levitre gone? The same is basically true if you take the Packers or Saints instead of the Pats. The gap was certainly a lot greater when comparing our crappy 80's teams to the Giants/Bears/Redskins or whomever.. So I would strongly disagree w/ the notion that it's especially hard to sustain a good team in this era. A great QB really does solves everything, as the guy who brought up the Colts astutely pointed out. - The 2008 AFC East played the NFC West and AFC West - the two weakest divisions in football that year by a mile. The Cardinals at 9-7 had the best record of those eight teams. Could that have possibly had something to do w/ NE going 11-5 (not to mention the Dolphins who were 1-15 the year before & 7-9 the year after?). I'm gonna go with yes. Worth noting this is coming from someone who has been accused of being a "Pats lover" here probably as much as anyone over the years. But ya I don't think it's "sad and pathetic" to point out that most of their success comes from lucking into an immortal QB. IMO it's a little sad to pretend otherwise in an attempt to earn objectivity points on a message board. We all know the Bills FO has sucked a lot. NE has the company of about 28 other teams in being better than us in that department.

I think RB/WR/WR is a fine approach from the #1spot this year assuming the best RB available at the 2/3 turn is like David Wilson or worse. Not loving the depth picks. Rodgers' roll won't change that much I don't think even if SJax gets hurt. Givens is a nice upside WR4 pick much less WR5. There's no need for Denarius Moore or a backup TE/K/D. Gotta take more lottery ticket RB's if you're not going to pick them early.

Thomas never lasts until the end of the 3rd either. Must be an amazing league. I like Randle a lot for an upside WR5 if Nicks gets hurt again. Only quibble would be with Peyton 11th is too early for me.

I think Fitz & Graham are more than enough to offset the difference between Peyton & Kaepernick so that sorta makes me like Team 1. I do like the WR depth on 2 better so I guess it's close. The RB's are pretty much a wash imo. Not a fan of Decker/Jones/Boldin where they are being drafted. For me if I miss out on say Nelson or Nicks I'll just skip the WR20-30 range and target Miles Austin, Stevie, Mike Williams, etc in the 7-9 rounds; not much difference to me. But admittedly a lot of drafting WR's comes down to personal preference so meh, whatever.

He did what he did last year without both starting Guards, who when healthy are maybe the best pair in the league.

"Guys like me.." Enough is enough.." "Distortions." Its almost as if Im the one starting narcissistic threads, making up straw man arguments & bragging about how I was right about...well, nothing really (its not like the Ravens played most all of last yr without their best CB by a mile). We have archives here. Why don't you show your work one time in your life rather than make outrageously sweeping generalizations. "Guys like me" defend the lack of tackle drafted for the sake of drafting a tackle in the face of heavy criticism the year we took Wood/Levitre & traded Peters (which unlike the gibberish you're spewing is a legit reason to say "I told you so") and then never start a thread about it. Aren't you one of the guys who has been predicting the Patriots' demise for about 7years? Why don't you start another thread on how much more informed you are than everyone else just to confirm you're the forums best troll instead of worst poster - as of now its unclear. Make sure to throw in a few smiley faces for the clueless trifecta.

This. I am one of those whackos who thinks all things being equal, lines are more important. Most of the time though the DT & the CB you're considering drafting don't turn out to be equal players relative to their positions. Just as Ngata was a better football player than Whitner, Patrick Peterson is a better player than Dareus. And Joe Schmo 1st round Safety was better than Aaron Maybin & Mike Williams & John Doe DT is better than McKelvin. To be good in this league you either have to pick the right guy more often than the Bills have, or have a really good QB. Pretty obvious stuff. Thanks for the awesome "informed football fan" public service announcement though OP.

Vegas seems to echo the growing pessimism the last couple weeks. Line was 7-7.5 (I kinda liked us with those points before the EJ/Gillmore injuries) now it's 10.5. Another pee in cheerios thought - how impressive were the 1st two games really? Sure our defense kicked around Matt Cassell, but we've done that the previous two reg. seasons too. Didn't mean we had a good defense. And the Indy game - really it was a kickoff return & a 2minute drive against backups before a nice 2nd half by Tuel.

I think they're trying to rank backfields, not running games. True point that backs hit the wall faster than people realize. I don't know whether FJax has or not. It's pretty well documented that QBs have a bigger impact on sacks than OLs.

That does suck. Raft's been doing games for CBS Part-Time for a while w/ Lundquist though, which is odd. Had the Wisconsin Sweet16 game on my DVR for a solid year.

Way too low. I'd probably put 'em 4th behind Minnesota, Baltimore, & maybe Philly. Houston 2nd is a joke w/ Foster's mileage & declining YPC. He was essentially a volume rusher last yr. Tate might be good but who really knows. Seattle/SF - Best OL's in the league also aided by mobile QB's. Pretty lame formula that doesn't account for "solid #2's" being infinitely easier to replace (like 4th round picks in every draft) than once in a generation talents like Peterson. What would the Vikings be willing to throw in on a trade Gerhart for Tate straight up - maybe a 5th rounder? Not to be the cliche "rip linked articles" guy but honestly, this is why I pretty much read exclusively Bill Barnwell for nfl opinions. Such rubbish elsewhere.

Michaels/Collinsworth is one of the very few that doesn't make my want to puke so I'll give the nod to them. For all of sports it's Sean McDonough, Jay Bilas & Bill Raftery and it's not close. Those three should do every sporting event ever.

Tough to complain about a draft where you get Spiller 14th & Julio 27th (both ridiculous) but you should have a much better RB2 than LawFirm in a league that soft. The difference between Garcon & Stevie isn't great enough to justify passing on a RB there (or even TE if Witten or someone was available). At least take your 4th RB in the 9th - Flacco/Olsen/Bennett are just guys in a long list of guys. Take Josh Freeman for your backup towards the end; who cares. I do like Bradshaw as a RB3 value (get him in almost every mock I do). Also no idea what you don't like about Cam in the 5th.

And of course it's a TBD tradition for the know-it-alls to gleefully mock these posts (I've heard of him!). So which is it?

To be fair they sat everyone in week17 so they might've made the playoffs w/out the 4th&26 miracle. The Denver play was a miracle but they also gave up two kick return TD's in that game and soundly beat the Patriots - that has to be worth something. The '01 Pats were unbelievably lucky in literally every single playoff game (Tuck Rule, 2 Special Teams TD's in Pittsburgh, doubled by the Rams in yardage...) not to mention a chicken***t fumble call vs a 3-13 Bills team gave them a bye and the division.

'01 Pats and it's not close.

Eli is a bad pick because WR's and especially RB's are too shallow in 12team leagues to pick a backup QB that early; not because of his bye week. As played don't trade him for Flacco - you find a Flacco equivalent with a good matchup on the Waiver Wire for your bye week. And FFS don't pick more than one defense.

Looks pretty good at the top. Any league where Lynch makes to 9 is a good league to be in. Ya Wilson is a little early but not a bad pick if he's the last of the Kaepernick/Stafford/Ryan/RG3 group available. Definitely wait 'till the end on TE and just take Bennett or Pettigrew - they'll probably be as good as Daniels. I would've gone with more upside guys in the late rounds, especially in a 10team league - the only one you got is Givens.

Which part of karma involves asshat fans of a city better known for baseball killing the division for 12yrs?

Never understood the controversy over this. I draft whomever's value I like best irrespective of team. Then I root for the Bills, against the Patriots and let the fantasy chips fall where they may. I had Reggie Bush last yr and there wasn't one millisecond where I felt torn when they played the Bills.

They're not much different than the team that made the playoffs 2yrs ago. They were terrible in close games last year. I think they'll be better than the Vikings this year.

Ya and the team that won it probably wasn't even one of the 3-4 best Colt teams of that era (not unlike the Ravens last yr). If the idiot Chargers DB doesn't fumble against the Patriots does Indy win @that 14-2 San Diego team the next week? Who knows but they would've been an underdog in that game. You need some luck in the postseason to win it all.

Bingo. Ya the Colts weren't there 12yrs ago be they're going to be for the next 12yrs (although I expect them to take a step backwards this year). Must be f***ing nice to get 13yrs of Manning and fall into Luck after the one year they suck. Kinda makes me hate them a lot. The Packers at least were bold enough to trade/draft Favre/Rodgers when other teams wouldn't have.

Yah I mean it's super easy to cherry-pick anecdotal examples. The nice thing about old school is that because it's conventional & most announcers were brought up the same way, it's never criticized in the media; and thus there's a huge built in memory/selection bias. I mean most football fans still remember Emmitt Smith getting stuffed on 4th down in Philadelphia in a 1995 reg. season game. But nobody remembers Ron Rivera punting a game away like a wimp in Atlanta last year on 4th&inches with the best short yardage QB in NFL history. People instead blame the Panthers defense for not making a stop - but nobody ever puts that same accountability on the players when an "aggressive" playcall doesn't work out - that's always the coach's fault. Meh, whatever.

The stuff about the Colts being very lucky last year is 100% true. The problem is that stuff is all built into the lines because Vegas is really smart. Bill Barnwell of Grantland has a lot of good stuff on who was lucky last yr wrt close games & fumble recoveries.