ezbills

You caught me Campy. I've been checking various legal/ political blogs for work lately, so I kind of unofficially added Two Bills Drive to my list. I usually check what you and Ramius say (among others) to get informed, reasoned opinion on the Bills, not just the-sky-is-falling-because-we-didn't-hire-Sherman babble. It's almost scary how much I agree w/ Ramius about the Bills; you'd think I went to high school with the guy and he was the best man in my wedding or something.

I read a lot more often than I post here (I think my last post explained how the Bills could STILL win the division after losing to the Fish?!? ), but I had to link to an SI.com article I just read about the Super Bowl. [sorry if it's already been discussed] http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=cnns...cnnsi&type=lgns At first, I found it amusing/ironic when I read: The Seahawks have faced only one 3-4 formation all season, at home against Dallas in Week 7. The Seahawks won 13-10, but they needed a gift Drew Bledsoe interception to help them score 10 points in the game's last 40 seconds in avoiding defeat. I wasn't so enthusiastic when I read the ending: Ever wonder what happens to those commemorative conference championship and Super Bowl shirts and caps that get printed up but go unused by the losers of those games? Apparently they wind up being boxed up by the NFL and shipped off as a clothing donation to third-world countries. As I imagine it, somewhere in Zimbabwe there's a whole bunch of people who appear to be absolutely nuts about those Buffalo Bills teams of the early '90s. Stupid comments like this don't typically bother me anymore as a lifelong Bills fan, but this one pissed me off for some reason. It just seemed like a gratuitous shot. Am I the only one?!?

With 5 games left and a 4-7 record, the Bills still have a decent chance to win the division this year. Sure, I'm an optimistic Bills fan, but the most important games left on the schedule are against teams the Bills have already won against (Miami and the Jets) and a team they badly outplayed and will get at home (New England). I think the most likely scenario is the Bills going 4-1 with a loss to Denver, and New England going 2-3 with losses to Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Miami. It's a longshot, but the Bills can stay in the race until the final weekend as long as they keep winning. They would actually control their own destiny if they beat the Fish Sunday and the Jets beat the Pats. Believe it or not, the Bills could actually win the division with a 6-10 record! The NFL should replace the East division winner with an extra wildcard team if that happens. Here's a complete list of all the possible ways the Bills can win the division (Hey, fans start getting crazy after a 10-year playoff win drought!) IF Bills Go 5-0 NE must lose 1 of their 3 division games beside Buffalo IF Bills Go 4-1 (Loss to DEN or CIN) NE must lose 2 of their 4 games beside Buffalo IF Bills Go 4-1 (Loss to NYJ) NE must lose 2 of their 3 division games beside Buffalo IF Bills Go 4-1 (Loss to MIA) NE must lose 2 of their 3 division games beside Buffalo MIA must lose 1 of their 4 games beside Buffalo IF Bills Go 4-1 (Loss to NE) NE must lose all 4 of their games beside Buffalo IF Bills Go 3-2 (With 3 division wins, losses to DEN and CIN) NE must lose 3 of their 4 games beside Buffalo MIA must lose 1 of their 4 games beside Buffalo IF Bills Go 3-2 (With wins against MIA, NE, and DEN or CIN, loss to NYJ) NE must lose 3 of their 4 games beside Buffalo MIA must lose 1 of their 4 games beside Buffalo NYJ must lose 1 of their 4 games beside Buffalo IF Bills Go 3-2 (With wins against NE, NYJ, and DEN or CIN, loss to MIA) NE must lose 3 of their 4 games beside Buffalo MIA must lose 2 of their 4 games beside Buffalo MIA would also need a 3rd loss unless they win vs NE IF Bills Go 3-2 (With wins against NE, DEN, and CIN, losses to MIA, NYJ) NE must lose all 3 of their division games beside Buffalo MIA must lose to NYJ and either SD or TEN NYJ must lose to OAK IF Bills Go 2-3 (With wins against NE, NYJ) NE must lose all 4 of their games beside Buffalo MIA must lose all 3 of their games beside Buffalo and NE IF Bills Go 2-3 (With wins against MIA, NE) NE must lose all 4 of their games beside Buffalo MIA must lose to SD and TEN NYJ must lose to MIA and OAK

What up Ramius? I replied to your post about taking the safety on Sunday. I have to agree that the ACC is stacked this year and that an undefeated ACC team deserves a shot at USC. That's tough for me to say since my favorite team is the Longhorns. Texas has only played Ohio State and Oklahoma (who wasn't supposed to suck this bad) so far, and Texas Tech is the only real tough game left. By the way, I just found out I passed the bar exam! I better get back to work before I get fired.

Good point. I think you're right about the clock not starting until the ball is caught on a free kick. I still think the safety play combined with the free kick return would run a lot more than 9 seconds off the clock, which is how much time the actual punt and return took. For people that were worried about Moorman being too far from the endzone, why not just take a delay of game penalty without being obvious about it? There's no way that Saban would decline in that situation. I wouldn't call it a blunder to not try the safety, but I would hope that one of the coaches at least thought of it at the time. I also hope they didn't chicken out for fear of having the play not work, because coaching "not to lose" instead of coaching to win is a recipe for disaster. Prevent defense, anyone?

I think that Erik Z. guy that Campy and Ramius were talking about was absolutely right because the benefits of taking the safety greatly outweighed the risks. The only conceiveable risk is that somehow Moorman gets tackled before he can run out the back of the endzone (or throw the ball out of the back of the endzone). The chance of that happening is extremely slim, especially since the only thing Moorman will be thinking about is not letting that happen. Blocked punts are quite rare, and messing up the safety play is even more unlikely than that since Moorman would immediately run backward instead of stepping right into the rush to get a punt off. Moorman is one of the most athletic punters in the league and is surely capable of running the play. He could throw the ball away if a Dolphin somehow broke free and quickly got near him. One the other hand, the main benefit of the play is to run as much time off the clock as possible. There were 21 seconds on the clock when the Miami offense took the field, and they were able to run two attempted pass plays before the clock ran out. Had the Bills taken the intentional safety, Miami would have only had 15 seconds or less. They would not have had time to spike the ball after the first sack. There are several other benefits to the play as well. The Bills would have gained at least 15 yards of field position. Instead of Moorman punting from about the 8 or 10 yard line, he would have done the free kick from the 25 or 30 yard line (I'm not sure which one). Also, there is no risk of a block on the free kick, and it is tougher to run a free kick back for a TD than it is to run back a punt. I know MM would have been hammered if the 1/1000 chance of messing the safety play up actually happened, but people like me would have hammered him for not trying it if the Bills had lost the game at the end. Signed, Erik Z., that guy that Ramius and Campy were talking about