ezbills

Maybe the Titans will get sick too. I mean, kids and teenagers seem to get sick more often, including 13-14 year old girls, and Travis Henry does play for the Titans...

Is this the same Vince Young who is currently 30th in the NFL in passer rating, just behind Jake Plummer, who has been benched, and JOOOOEEEEEEEY Harrington, who was benched last week for some guy named Lemon?!? If Young has "bounced back from every bad game he's had the whole year," I'd hate to see how awful he'd be if he hadn't bounced back!

It must not have aired on ESPN...

For some players that is true. Schobel is leading the NFL in sacks though and he will pad his stats against the Titans.

That's interesting. I didn't notice that Roos guy on the AFC pro bowl roster, or any other Titans for that matter, but I did notice that Aaron Schobel was there. http://nfl.com/probowl/afc_roster Jets fans said the same thing about their young stud LT and, if Chad Pennington could still remember anything about that game, he'd say Schobel was pretty damn good.

Please tell me that there's not actually a regression toward the mean thread...

Miami, or real?

I agree. There may be some possibility of the Bills getting in at 8-8 but it would be a longshot. These next two games are already the playoffs for the Bills just like the past 2 games have been.

I double-checked this and I'm pretty sure it's all accurate. Here's a revised version that has the same information but takes into account the fact that the Jets/Raiders game is only relevant if the Jets beat Miami. Assuming that KC will beat OAK this weekend: NE-DEN-MIA win: The Bills would control their own destiny at Baltimore (assuming that they will win the strength of victory tiebreaker vs. Cincy) NE-CIN-MIA win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 7 of 8 Week 17 scenarios, needing only one loss by JAX, CIN, or DEN in Week 17. JAX-CIN-MIA win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 5 of 8 scenarios, needing either a KC win over JAX or a win by both PIT and SF in Week 17. JAX-DEN-MIA win: The Bills would have a 50-50 shot because they would need KC to beat JAX in order to get in. NE-CIN-NYJ win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 3 of 16 scenarios, needing an NYJ win over OAK, a PIT win over CIN, and also a win in Week 17 by either KC or SF. JAX-CIN-NYJ win: The Bills would have a 1 in 8 chance, needing Week 17 wins by NYJ, KC, and PIT. DEN-NYJ win (regardless of NE-JAX result): The Bills would have a 1 in 8 chance, needing Week 17 wins by NYJ, KC, and SF.

It's basically a spreadsheet that I filled in during last night's game. A lot of the scenarios are pretty easy to figure out because they either have 2 or more teams with 10 wins so the Bills are obviously out, or there are only one or two other teams we'd be tied with at 9-7 so we're in.

I say we definitely want the Bengals to win against Denver. I think it's more likely that SF and/or PIT will pull off wins in Week 17 than it is that Miami will beat the Jets. The 49ers and Steelers are still in the playoff hunt (as of now) and have played well lately while Miami is, well, Miami. A Denver win does not help us that much anyway should Miami actually beat the Jets.

Thanks. Maybe I should have asked my guidance counselor in high school about becoming a stats guy for the Bills?!?

I've got this on paper but I don't have it in electronic form or else I'd send it out to whoever wants it. I could probably type it up in Excel if people would find that useful. A KC loss to OAK does little damage to the Bills if Miami actually beats the Jets. The Bills would make it into the playoffs in 48 of 64 scenarios where KC and MIA win, while they would make it in 44 of 64 scenarios where OAK and MIA win. However, if the Jets beat MIA, a KC loss to OAK would be very bad. The Bills would make the playoffs in 9 of 64 scenarios with KC and NYJ wins, but there would only be 3 of 64 scenarios where the Bills could get in with wins by both OAK and NYJ. So, the KC/OAK game is also important to those of us not wanting the Bills' hopes to rest on Miami....

Thanks!

Yes. If NE, DEN, and MIA win, the standings going into the final week would be: DEN 9-6 BUF 8-7 ------------- CIN 8-7 JAX 8-7 NYJ 8-7 PIT 8-7 or 7-8 KC 8-7 or 7-8 The Bills would hold the tiebreaker over all other 8-7 teams. If Denver also finished at 9-7 and the Chiefs were not 9-7, Denver would get the 1st wildcard and the Bills would get the 2nd spot. If KC also finished 9-7, the Bills would be the #5 seed.

An easier way to condense the playoff possibilities is to assume that KC and NYJ will both beat Oakland. That would leave just 6 total games other than Buffalo's that will have an impact (those of DEN, CIN, JAX, and KC). Of 64 possible scenarios, the Bills would make the playoffs in 33 and miss in 31 if they win out. Here's a breakdown of the 8 possible Week 16 results in order from best to worst: NE-DEN-MIA win: The Bills would control their own destiny at Baltimore (assuming that they will win the strength of victory tiebreaker vs. Cincy) NE-CIN-MIA win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 7 of 8 Week 17 scenarios, needing only one loss by JAX, CIN, or DEN in Week 16. JAX-CIN-MIA win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 5 of 8 scenarios, needing either a KC win or a win by both PIT and SF. JAX-DEN-MIA win: The Bills would have a 50-50 shot because they would need KC to beat JAX in order to get in. NE-CIN-NYJ win: The Bills would make the playoffs in 3 of 8 scenarios, needing a PIT win and also a win by either KC or SF. JAX-CIN-NYJ win: The Bills would have a 1 in 4 chance, needing wins by both KC and PIT. DEN-NYJ win (regardless of NE-JAX result): The Bills would have a 1 in 4 chance, needing wins by both KC and SF to get in.

My choice is Indy. The Bills should be able to run on them with both Willis and A-Train in the backfield, and the Colts special teams looked average or worse last night. If the Bills D could hold the Colts offense largely in check like they did in the regular season game, this could be a very competitive game. I just hope it wouldn't come down to the Colts with a few point lead with 5 minutes left trying to run the clock down!

Here's a new formula that I think explains it: Bills not making playoffs in 7 seasons + Bills not winning playoff game in 11 seasons x wanting to hear the national media explain how the terrible Bills pulled off a miracle to make the playoffs + having to watch Collins-Hobert-Flutie-Johnson-Bledsoe-Holcomb for the past decade/ the chance that Buffalo could actually beat the Colts or Pats in the first round = The chance that we're all crazy for figuring this stuff out

Exactly. If the Jets beat Miami and then lose to Oakland to finish at 9-7, the winner of the Bengals-Broncos game will finish ahead of NYJ which ensures that Buffalo can finish no better than 3rd in the race for 2 spots.

Nice research! I think what the Jets post was saying is that a Jets win over Miami ensures that the Jets will finish ahead of Buffalo. They don't really care who could get in the 2nd spot behind them. This is similar to how we consider KC, TEN, and PIT to be eliminated for the Bills playoff purposes because they will all finish behind the Bills if Buffalo wins out.

I believe that their chances are slimmer than the Bills due to their AFC record, although they should hold the tiebreaker over the Jags within their own division. They are definitely in the hunt though and the winner of this week's game will be 8-7 with a good or decent shot of making the playoffs.

That's right. I'm sure when the season started, or when the Bills were 2-5, that most of us would have loved to have the Bills with a 50% chance of making the playoffs if they win their final 2 games.

Thanks. This is based strictly on possible win-loss combinations and does not take lines, homefield, injuries etc. into account. All of the games (beside the Oakland games) feature roughly even matchups between two playoff contenders except for the Jets-Fins game which is also pretty even.

That is correct. Basically, if you're confident that Miami will beat the Jets, then root for Denver to beat Cincy and then Buffalo would control their own destiny. If you're like me and do not feel as confident in Harrington/ Lemon pulling out a win, pull for Cincy because that would give the Bills a better (but still slim) chance of getting in should the Jets win. I've got all the scenarios here: http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=57120