Matt in KC

Be very careful. He just says he's 18.... Welcome aboard, 83evans83!

Thank you, Pyrite Gal, bluv and tenesseeboy. I think you all make good points. One of the few things I know about the cover 2 is that the MLB is responsible for the deep third of the field in coverage. For this reason alone, I think the criticism of LFB not making more plays at/behind the LOS is absurd, especially when paired with the speculation that the Bills are looking for someone bigger (not faster). Affirming jester43's observation, I have seen that Fletcher and TKO are the two defenders most likely to prop up an opponent and let the next defender try to strip the ball. This often leads to the player squirming for another yard or two (falling forward), but unless a first down is at stake, it's probably worth it. Fletcher's speed and tackling looks the same as it has for years. What has changed is the defensive scheme and the players around him ...and he has stopped taking stupid penalties. I personally think the leadship loss will be huge if he goes. Only if the coaches think that Fletch is NOT making the right D calls, is this a non-issue, and I have not heard a peep from anyone saying this was the case. Replacing him will not be easy or cheap. I cannot see any realistic way the Bills D avoids a drop-off next year if they let Fletcher walk. The tea leaves seem to indicate Fletcher will be gone, but I cannot understand why. Maybe he will pick up an insane contract in FA, or told the Bills he's looking for $$$ they know is out of whack with the market. With our available salary cap space, I can't image why we wouldn't want to sign one of the NFL's top 10 MLBs.

So, in the Cover 2, the MLB is supposed to cover the deep third of the field and make tackles at/behind the line of scrimmage? And they need to be a big guy, not a smaller/faster guy??

Judging performance in retrospect (Ellison, Pennington, and also Denney in your example) is a whole lot different than before the team is complete. With very few exceptions, you don't know for sure if your draft pick will actually be able to compete at the NFL level. Draft picks have pros and cons for a team: + = less expensive, longer rights to the player, sometimes more up-side - = will take time to develop and may never get to starting NFL level. For a critical position like the starting O-Line, I'd rather have a known quantity than a gamble, even though you get the gamble for longer, and cheaper. That being said, if none of your draft picks develop, you're also dead in the water. I'm happy to sacrifice draft picks for need positions, but there is something to be said for Beerball's point about it being a distraction if the deals rarely if ever come through. I'd like to believe the Bills are leaving "no stone unturned" looking for talent, and aren't neglecting other possibilities, in which case I applaud them for pursuing RFAs.

Sorry, I'm not sure I get your math. Maybe it's because I'm just starting to drink my coffee, but it sounds like you're saying Bills lose seven or so free agents (retaining only two) sign two free agents and sign five draft picks. That sounds like -7 + 2 + 5 = ? ..and you're saying it equals seven more than we started with?

Wow, it looks like Mularkey or Greg Williams may get another shot at a head coach job this year! (kidding)

I agree with most of your points. With Fletcher, I would offer a 2 or 3 year deal at middle-of-the-road starting MLB annual salary. Losing a big SB (signing bonus, not Super Bowl!) because of injury is the greatest risk when resigning an aging starter to a new contract, but LF-B has never missed a game, and is still playing very well. Imagining how we would have looked this year with a weak MLB is painful. I suspect I care less about Fletcher's age than others, so I think he'll be available for a lower salary than younger talent, and will be a good value. Can you imagine how psyched we'd be to get him if we started a below-average MLB on the Bills, and LF-B put up those stats for another team? All that said, I do think we need another new young LB to start grooming. Questions about Fletcher, Crowell, Spikes and Stamer are too much.... Even with Ellison playing very well, we're getting thin at the LB poisition behind our thin D-Line. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think there's enough positive game-tape on Preston to allow him to command a high salary for another team. I do think he's very serviceable, however, and is where we ought to pay a bit more to keep a player with the money we save from not overspending on someone like Nate. Don't get me wrong, Nate played great in the last eight... er... but I'd rather see that money spread accross our many needs rather than dumped on a single guy, one I'm not convinced won't coast a bit after getting his payday. Denney has played very well, and at very least provides better backup at DE than most teams can keep. He arguably could start, though I would prefer to see him rest and come in and play lights-out for 50% of the plays. He gets a lot of tips with those looong arms. Davis has definitely exceeded my expectations. I'd try to sign him to a 2-3 year deal with a minimal SB. I was surprised to see him (figuratively) fly past Aiken as our ST demon WR. Wilson is worth bringing back to training camp, though hopefully we don't lose Davis and not find a better WR somewhere else. --- Shelton, Villarial and our TE's are on my shitt-list. Unfortunately it seems we still desperately need to add a solid TE.

That sounds disgustingly similar to Thurman Thomas retiring as a Dolphin. Thanks for coming by. Stop in and give us credit when it's all over too, okay?

I agree. Those cat-killing/torture comments almost stopped me from coming to TSW, despite the good Bills insights.

I agree. Great work! ...if it's accurate

DB Coach George Catavolos (GC): Congrats, Nate. The Bills are going to pay you the money you deserve. Nate: They are?? GC: Yeah, you got tagged, so you get top 5 CB pay! Nate: It's just this year though, right? GC: Yes, just for this year. Nate: Excellent... you promise it's just this year? GC: You don't need my promise, I talked to Marv and it's a done deal --- Media: What the team did not announce, but which is a fairly significant caveat, is that the deal included a promise that the Bills will not exercise the franchise tag again next spring to retain Clements' rights.

I said 7-9. Here are some of the old TSW threads, for anyone interested in lookin back. I didn't see a poll to get a quick aggregate view of what everyone here thought, but I remember most people around 5-8 wins. Season prediction time 2006 Prediction, Wins & Losses + a couple reasons Bills 11-5 This Year! My prediction: Bills will catch fire after the bye, you read it here first Bills' insider Sal Moiarana reports that the Bills, at BEST will win 5 games, maybe less. Bills 11-5 This Year!

I think Parrish is a huge long shot. If he has 2-3 more "lightning-in-a-bottle" plays that actually make the national highlights he could go next year, but he's not even close as a reciever and wasn't even listed as the BUF default choice for ST (Aiken was). Has everyone forgotten about Mike Schneck, our pro-bowl long snapper? http://www.nfl.com/probowl/afc_roster

I'd hope that any Bills fans that saw a drunk hassling you and your nephew would stick up for you. Strike that, I hope any NFL fan would stick up for you. Unless you're being a jerk yourself, it's completely inexcusable. By the way, by clicking on section 111 here, you get a view of the field, but it looks like it's from the top of your section. This may be a view from your relocated seats if you are able to move.... http://www.buffalobills.com/facility/SeatingChart.jsp Edit: looks like THE TOMCAT beat me to it....

Actually, this is more like a Winfield moment, isn't it? I think that to succeed as a team, you need to get good value (production for the money) from your starters and backups. Sure, Nate is playing great, but the FA money is going to be insane. I just couldn't tie up all that money in a player who may cool off when the money's not riding on the level of his play, and to whom a single fluke play (injury) could really hurt this team for years. That's too much risk tied up in a single player. With schoolyard rules (just picking one player at a time before the other team does) sure I pick Nate early. But paying him the money 3+ starters should make is crazy for a team supposedly rebuilding. I can't fault Nate for leaving unless the money is really close (to us "only" a million dollars might sound close). This is his big payday, where all the risk he's taken on pursuing this carreer pays off for his family, and future generation(s).

Early in his tenure with the Bills (don't know whether to give credit to Gray or not), the defensive halftime adjustments were very good, limiting the opposition to something like 20 points TOTAL in the 3rd quarter (sorry, too busy to reasearch it). You are right, though, this is a huge improvement over last year.

Bringing this back to JP, this seems like a fun time to link back to the "predict JP's stats topic started at the end of August: JP Stat prediction thread. He's doing a bit worse on passing yards and rushing than I thought he would, but pretty much better in all of the other stats. By the way, I thought the Bills would be 7-9, so anything else this year exceeds my expectations. For those of you stuck off-topic... doing some quick calculating using Bill Gates' net worth posted by Kelly, it would take about 634 years to become as rich as Bill Gates if you earned a dollar every second day and night non-stop. (Wow!)

I'm man enough to admit I was one of them. Sherman seemed like a "real coach" that could succeed the short string of imposters we dealt with. Another bad coach (or bad coaching by coordinators, or whoever) might have crushed the spirit of the Bills' fans. It is great to have a team that I'm excited to see play and grown, and coaches I think are above average.

Or we could be in our own division, and sit there and play with ourselves six weeks each year, and always make the playoffs. That would be great!

That's what I think too, even knowing what happened to Sam Cowart. So, that's why I disagree with:

I hear you guys and agree for the most part. So, do you think because of his similar injury Takeo will be worth the salary he's scheduled to make next year?

Are you sure that was because of the injury? Or maybe it was age, or something in his personal life? Listen, I personally think the injury prevented Cowart from becoming one of the best ever to play the game. I dispute only that TKO won't be worth his salary because he had this same type of injury. I also think Sam Cowart is often referenced as though he was never productive after his injury. Really, he was better his first two years with the Jets stat-wise than he was any full year with the Bills. 2000 was a monster season for him with the Bills, but that's not what we're talking about. He was by far my favorite Bill when he got hurt, and the fact that most NFL fans never learned his name really is a shame.

I agree that 2000 was (and 2001 would have been!) his most dominant year, I dispute that he was never the same after (because of) his injury. He had 96 solo tackles in 2003 (140 when you count assists), and a couple sacks. That's pretty darn good. Good enough, that it is not clear that the injury caused him to "never be the same." If Takeo returns next year and has Cowart's stats from two years after his injury ( in 2002: 127 tackles | 2 sacks | 8 passes defended) I'll be thrilled. That is worth what he's scheduled to make, even without considering his leadership and other team needs. This is my argument that deciding now to cut Spikes next year is premature.

I hear this all the time, but am confused... Didn't Sam put up just as good stats after the injury (for the Jets)? Sam's Stats from NFL.com are here I think Bills fans just stopped paying attention to him. Regarding your point: I think fan-favorites are a big part of the entertainment aspect of the NFL. But, winning will earn more fan enhusiasm and spending than having the favorites stay and lose. I personally would like to see players I respect trying their best, rather than seeing a bunch of a-holes win in a Bills uniform. Fortunately, we don't really need to chose between the two since there are plenty of up-and-coming players who aren't jerks.

This all sounds good to me. While I never like to hear about players getting hurt, it sounds like Peters has a bruise that is not so severe it will keep him out, and we are putting a message in the media encouraging the Dolphins to try to get to JP by going through Peters (our strength).