Matt in KC

Actually, a more direct analogy is removing JP's best (TD?) or worst (INT?) pass from each game then comparing his year end passer rating to other quarterbacks. I'd bet he'd be one of the best (or worst) quarterbacks in the league.

The definition of depth for the O-Line is a player on the roster who does not play unless someone gets hurt, like Reyes. This is Whittle's only year under contract, and yes, Walker and Dockery will likely start this year. You are right that Pennington will again likely become depth at OT with some valuable playing experience, but that doesn't help us at guard or center. If Walker does move to guard, then yes, that frees up Preston, though I'm weary of having him back up all of the interior line positions, especially since he looked like the weak link on the line last year, and doesn't seem to be improving any more. I'd love to see him step up and conclusively earn the RG job (then get extended another couple years), but don't expect this to happpen.

We all know we need LB, RB, CB... (or at least most posters here do, though some claim CB is not a clear need). But this is "only" three positions, and we now have four first day picks in the draft. What is the other position you think we will or should take on day one, and what are the positions filled with our four second-day picks? My positions and reasons are below, in the order I think they are important and likely to be selected. Another Linebacker - I think this is our remaining first day pick. We lost both Spikes and Fletcher, and Stamer and Crowell are returning from injury. Haggan has looked (just) okay in pre-season, but is really more a special teams player than a LB we want in the game. I realise we took care of one of our vacancies (really we did) by making Wire a LB, but I think we're still very thin at this position even if we do get Patrick Willis in the first round. Does DiGiorgio make the team? (Does the practice squad count as "making the team?") 2007 is the last year under contract for Stamer and Haggan and I think it's very doubtful both will return next year. Back-up/future Guard and/or Center - Preston is also our backup Center? In preseason the last couple years, Esposito snapped the ball with the second team in front of Preston. Esposito who? Exactly.... We lost both Gandy and Reyes this offseason. This is the last year under contract for Whittle and next year is the last for Preston, Fowler and Merz (time flies, doesn't it?). It is time to start grooming someone else and keep the "pipeline" full. Signing Dockery did not help our depth at guard, just our starting lineup. Defensive End - Yes, I like Hargrove as a personality, but haven't really seen anything to make me think he can compete at this level. Given that Schobel, Kelsay and Denney would all line up on passing downs the last couple years, I'm not thrilled with our depth here. I think we keep 9 D-Linemen on the roster, but contray to popular thought, 5 of them are DE's (one is our the player we draft). I suspect DE will get the extra player because Denney or Hargove could line up as a DT in the rotation. I don't think any of our DTs could play on the end if needed. Backup RB / FB - I am glad Shelton is gone; he plugged more wholes in front of McGahee the last two years than he opened. If we are going to use a fullback at all this year, it would be nice to draft someone with an "up-side" instead of using a vet like Ricard. I like Thomas and Williams, but they can't be expected to help us next year and beyond. Cieslak did fill in at FB last year because he was the best of a few very bad choices. (Also, this is Cieslak's last year under contract.) I haven't seen Jackson play, but don't put any weight in NFLE stats. (Wasn't Ken Simonton? the same kind of NFLE wonder?) I'd be thrilled if we do have a diamond in the rough, but assume Levy's comments about him are mainly to help us seem less desperate for contract negotiations with others. Backup Safety - Bowen gone; Leonard is backing up both spots and Wire is now a LB. We are one bad play from having Simpson and Leonard being our safeties covering the deep part of the field (with a rookie MLB?) and no one backing them up, except Wire, who I'm sure will continue to be a team player and drop 15 pounds before the next game. And yes, for anyone who is superstitious, I was knocking on my wood desk with my left hand as I typed with my right hand. Tight End - This is Cieslak and Nufeld's last year under contract and we still haven't seen Everett ("paging Kevin Everett... please report to the playing field as soon as possible...."). I'm happy with Royal for one of our TE positions, but remain depressed about our other players. If we don't take one this year, this position could be a first-day selection next year. Wide Reciever - I don't think we're likely to take one this year, but think we need to keep the pressure of competition on our current players. George Wilson, Chris Denney and a couple ("camp fodder") FA's could provide this pressure. I want to see even more of Roscoe this year. If JP has a little more time, I think he could get enough separation to kill opposing secondaries. Quarterback - Holcolm is gone, which is fine with me. I think he's a fine backup QB, but I take this as a sign that we're continuing to shift the playbook to JP's strengths and would rather not pay his salary or remember questioning if JP would start. I think Nall will be our backup this year, and there is little reason to use a draft pick on a 3rd QB unless we want to take on a project and think the pick is a better gamble than the other players left in the 7th round.

Anyone know what happened to Bowen? I never heard anything about why he was released. I thought he was playing well well (in preseason) when he got hurt, and we do really need another (back up / special teams) safety. I don't think they'll sign him again since they just released him, but they may well find this year's version in another player....

For comparison sake: McGahee ran 259 times for 990, a 3.8 average. That's 3.6 when you remove his top run (57 yards). Tomlinson: 348 for 1815 yards. 5.2 --> 5.0 yds/carry when removing top run (85 yards). Reggie Bush: 155 for 565 yards. 3.6 --> 3.55 yds/carry when removing top run (18 yards). Frank Gore: 312 for 1695 yards. 5.4 --> 5.2 yds/carry when removing top run (72 yards). I think he might have taken out the top run from each game. I wonder what a good average is for a season when you remove your top run each game...(???)

The obvious reason is that giving up your 2nd means you can grab another player with your first round selection and land a player (LB maybe?) who can start this year. Your trade means the first and second round picks yield a single player. It looks like we still have money and need players, so I'd pay the higher salary to get Turner plus another player. (I'm assuming Turner + #12 > #6, but if I'm wrong it strengthens my case.)

I favor trading our 2nd rounder to swapping 1st round picks and don't think the price is too high. I understand the desire to add new blood to the team by keeping the same number of day one picks, but I think we really do need new playmakers. We should keep the 12th pick to get a playmaker like Willis (who is my prediction for our first pick). Of course it's possible we'll get stranded with all of the impact players taken by our pick, or "only" having Peterson drop to us.... We do have the 43rd pick in the draft... why just not trade that? I can't think of any RB likely to be available then who has more promise than Turner. While I understand the desire to "buy" a player for the lowest possible price, we really DO need to add someone who can consistently gain yards his first year with the team. There is value in not gambling a RB will be there on draft day. I'd even be comfortable throwing in a second day pick next year, since we likely won't have as many holes on the team. Of course I also can't figure out why WR's like Wes Welker can get a 2nd and 7th in a trade but RB's never seem to...

Thanks for doing the tally. I'm really surprised the vote was so close. Also, he may have been standing, but I think 1billsfan was dead after 2 rounds.

I actually didn't catch that. So, it's more a case of drunk driving than carjacking.... I liked your original question, firstngoal, and was surprised to see how close the vote was. Unfortunately, it looks like we're off-roading and will not likely get back to the vote. I guess it is the standard debate: do you draft for talent, or to fill a need. This is why the question is interesting to me. I think LB is a bigger need for us, but Peterson's talent is clearly higher. I think we should grab Peterson if they're both available because RB is also a big position of need and I'm surprised nearly half of the posters in this thread disagree.

This thread is about Willis versus Peterson. Kindly take the Lynch conversation elsewhere. Thanks you. Willis 9 / Peterson 14 / Other nonsense not dealing with this hypothetical 9

If both are there, I would take Peterson. So anyone know the current vote? Willis 9 / Peterson 13 / Other nonsense not dealing with this hypothetical 8?

This IS fun. I had to hit "Refresh" to see if you had changed your post yet....

Wow... Turner comments that really do warrant a new thread. Thanks for the info, PIZ! I've gone from thinking we should try to get him for less than our #2, to being happy giving our #2 pick, and a second day pick next year to land him. I hope we pursue him aggressively but keep our #1. We could always trade him on draft day if Peterson is still available by some miracle.

With his more accurate throws and a few effective scrambles, I think you have to add JP to the list.

I know it was a statement of the obvious, but when I said they should wait for Tenessee to sign MT to weaken Chris Brown's bargaining position I was trying to be clear this is NOT what I think they should do. Tipster suggested we might sign Brown. I was saying that signing Brown before Tenessee signs MT would be the worst of both worlds (wrong guy and would cost more). Did you only read my second sentence?

If so, they should wait for Tenessee to sign MT then and weaken Chris Brown's bargaining position. I would much rather land Turner than Brown.

Certainly a player is less interested in "future consideration" than another team (or GM). We used to hear about "a player to be named later" etc. frequently it seemed, but not recently. I think GMs still give each other "future consideration" more often than we know. They just stopped telling the media about it. I was musing to myself what would happen if SD knew the Bills were offering better pick(s) than Tenessee (less than the 1st and 3rd) and MT's agent had a better contract offer from Tenessee. Neither would want to approve the deal....

On the carpet, in the fetal position. (I'm not sure if this is on an NFL field or at home btw.)

How could I have forgotten the 3. Profit? (It's a fundemental part of the business plan...) This is very close to what I think position-wise if they do not get another player for the lines. I think DE could be a surprise pick. I like Hargrove's enthusiasm, but think we need someone else to come in if Denney, Kelsay or Schobel get injured. On pass plays last year, all three would often line up. If not, Powell might make the team this year.

1. (12) Patrick Willis (LB) 2. (43) Brian Leonard (RB) ??? 3a. CB 3b. C/OG? 4. LB? or DE? 6. S? 7. FB? or QB? or TE?

Maybe that's what Schobel weighs after 3 months laying off the steroids? Or maybe this is a plot to make our opponents think they can block him with only their LT and no help. ....or maybe it's a typo.

Making him bigger than Schobel. Schobel's weight can't be correct. (Can it?)

I never saw an article or topic here about why Bowen was released. I thought he played very well in preseason before he got hurt (maybe he just didn't heal right?). Anyone hear anything about this? It seems like we really need another safety, even though most people would scoff at drafting another after last year.

Kudos to you for taking the high road, smokinandjokin. I'm glad he's happy and that I don't have to root for the idiot again this year.

Thanks for taking the time to list these out, Kelso's Helmet. I really do want to believe we'll do better next year. I've added my comments under your points below. 1. Same coaches, rookies, and starting QB with an extra year of experience now in the O and D systems. --> I do think this is likely an area of modest improvement. I think the O and D were modified to fit our personell last year, so it will continue to change (such as passing to the TE's), which will help, I think, but not just because the veterans have experience with the plays/assignments. 2. An improved, more veteran-rich OL and DL from both free agency and also from the 2006 draft class' aforementioned new experience...or full health in McCargo's case. --> As I mentioned previously, I think the O-line may take a few games to gel, but likely will be improved. With the Anderson-to-Walker upgrade we should be better. Of course we haven't factored in who gets hurt in 2007 (since we don't know), you've only counted who has healed. Do you think we had more or less than the normal amount of injuries last year? I think it was about average, so McCargo returning will help about the same as someone else getting injured will hurt us. 3. A disgruntled, low-IQ RB with average speed (McGahee post-Fiesta Bowl) replaced with a fresh-legged RB drafted in the first day (Bush?). --> I respond to 3,4, and 5 together below 4. A disgruntled, slowed, unproductive post-Achilles TKO replaced with a speedier day 1 draft pick (Alexander, Black?) who better fits our D system. --> I respond to 3,4, and 5 together below 5. A small, aging MLB who couldn't attack/fill his line gap responsiblities (London) replaced with a bigger, younger, faster, and equally football-intelligent Patrick Willis (no, I don't see the 49ers picking Willis over any of the top DL players at #11). --> Response to 3,4, and 5: Any of these three scenarios may mean an upgrade, but I am very sceptical that we can draft three players who can play as well as McGahee, Fletcher and Spikes in their first year. I would guess only one is as good or an upgrade in 2007. (My money would be on the Spikes upgrade.) I'm not saying it is impossible, just very improbable. I do think, however, that 2-3 years in the future these players will play much better than McGahee, Fletcher and Spikes. 6. Loss of Clements compensated by true implementation of the Tampa Cover-2, as well as contributions from Youboty and whatever other CB's Levy can find in the mid-to-late draft rounds (and this scouting team's track record with CB's has been pretty good over the past 10-15 years). --> Youboty was on the team last year as well. The only change here is we have lost Clements. A draftee/FA could fill in, though I think it's vertually impossible he will play as well as Clements did in 2006. Becasue of this, I don't see how this allows us to play a "true Tampa cover 2" if we couldn't do so with Clements on the roster. 7. RB being among the easiest positions in football for which a college-to-pro rookie can make a significant contribution. To only a slightly lesser extent, the same is true for cover-2 OLB's and CB's who are only responsible for small pockets of the field. At these positions, speed and agility can often trump years of play recognition experience. --> CB and RB addressed above, except for the hypothetical that we trade 2 first days picks for Turner. I think trading would help this year and slightly hurt the next 2-3 years when we could have had other 2 young veterans on the team. I don't have a strong feeling either way.... (anything less than our second round pick and I'd be happy). Am I putting too much of a positive spin on the 2007 season's potential? Perhaps. And I'm not saying I buy 100% into the "we make the playoffs in 2007" argument. Maybe Levy bombs the 2007 draft, and then we're screwed. But I do know one thing: we sure didn't win much when we had TD's assembled cast of name player choke artists like Fletch, Clements, and McGahee. --> I'm still about as confident as I've been before each of the last few seasons. I suspect we'll end within 1-2 games of our record last year, out of the playoffs. --------- Here are some other positives/improvements: JP Losman. I think he is settling in to his new role, relaxing, and starting to play solid football. JP's experience, and resulting confidence/comfort/leadership can have a profound affect on our team performance next year. In general I reject arguments that our players will have another year of experience under their belts, because on the whole our team is getting younger/less experienced. I'd have to do the math to see if our projected starters are getting older or younger (I suspect it's about the same average age as last year with a few positions getting younger and many getting a little older). Better team chemistry. This is one of the biggest wildcards in my opinion, and could swing our record a couple games either direction, though I think we were still "finding our voice" last year, and likely will be improved here. If we can land an average (or better) RB, the left side of our line should be able to dominate on several running plays each game. In this case, the synergy of Dockery playing next to Peters is greater than just adding Dockery. Further Gripes: I wish we replaced John Allaire (Strength and Conditioning Coach). Since Rusty Jone departed we've been poorly conditioned and have had a ton of hamstring pulls.