Fake-Fat Sunny

Perhaps?!?! Virtually right from the start TD has struck me in examining the pluses and minuses GW brought to the Bills that he seemed to be motivated in his hiring decisions by vowing (ether conciously or unconciously) to say never again in terms of hiring a guy as HC who would/could fire him and run him out of town as Cowher did. I don't begrudge him feeling this wat or lambaste him as this reaction would seem to me to be entirely human after an ugly Pittsbrgh scene. Still if this is true, I as a fan have to count on Ralph Wilson to see the pluses and minuses of anyone he hired, If this very human motivation is part of the TD framework then it should have been Ralph to have the judgment (he certainly has the power since he signs the checks) to work to allow TD to do the many things he has done well with this football team: 1. Improved the business side of the operation as the team has advanced from the tickets in a shoebox era to a more modern system under TD. 2. Negotiated some great partnerships for the Bills with the move to St. Johns Fisher for camp and with outlets such as Wegman's and Tops. 3, Captured SHOUT and turned it into a promotional house organ as Bills Digest (this is good for the Bills business and bad for the fans in terms of info and perspectives) 4. Moved the team out of cap hell a year sooner than most estimated and continued to negotiate a number of contract quite favorable to the Bills in terms of the bottomline (ex. Adams, McGahee, Spikes and still produced good onfield production from these players as individuals. He has attracted and sealed the deal to bring a number of talented FAs to this small market region. 5, Helped revive the excitement about football in this region after a 3-13 seaso by acquiring Bledsoe from a team in the division (in my opinion this was a great trade to do as Bledsoe led the way in establishing a new Bills team after the cap driven house cleaning which saw the team improve its record to 8-8 and Bledsoe produce stats which merited his Pro Bowl nod that year, however after the Bledsoe drain in his performance last year it certainly appears the team would likely have been far better off for him to have cut the team's losses by cutting him with no cap acceleration for this year). 6. Managed drafts under his tenure which like most NFL talent guys has been a mixed bag with some great picks (2001 draft) and some clunkers (2002 draft) and it being too early to juudge the 2003 and 2004 drafts. However, a key for assessment for him will be how WM turns out and so far so good on that one though it is way to early to declare success. Nevertheless, these positives have been outweighed in terms of the team's record by nothing short of a horrendous job in passing on John Fox and Marvin Lewis to hire GW. GW certainly struck me almost from the start of having the advantage of being a good Administrative Assistant to TD choice because of his research and lists, but I was conerned he did not have the right stuff to be a primetime HC. This proved correct as he never establoshed disciplined play, seemed to have lousy game feel leading to clock management, teaching and other errors. Even worse just as TD failed in hiring this important lieutenant, so to did GW fail in hiring and managing effective co-ordinators. The irony for me with GW is that I wish that TD had actually been more aggressive in forcing his will upon TD as TD's decisions on the field may have been more like his GW decisions than his off-field good ones, but it would be hard to do worse than GW did with this team. TD seemed to be oddly passive-aggrssive with GW. He let GW make his own bed on his own, but quickly and clearly (if not gleefully) got GW to kill or alter his mistakes (Sheppard canning, hiring Steckel to fill in for Killdrive after Killdrive was taken over apparent TD pick Clements. and supplementing GW/Gray with Lebeau). TD should hae not only hired a better HC than GW, but once this mistake was made he should have been more aggressive on insisting on Clements over Killdrive or if Killdrive had to be picked forced the team to move to Steckel as OC once it became clear Killdrive was ineffective. The jury is still out on MM simply because contratually he will get at least one mulligan year, but I'm not sure where you even start to get rid of TD's failure and maintain the good things. Sorry about the lack of cliffnotes but I'm frustrated after today's loss and just pouring.

There is no way I start JP now when he is still recovering from an injury that would have landed a less plucky player on the IR. The key regarding Losman is to develop him for the future and not to do a Todd Collins rushjob in developing him that sets back his progress. Now that the playoffs are certainly out of the question, it makes no sense to throw JP in to quickly for his development because even if he plays better than Bledsoe it makes no difference.

3 (possibly 2 as one of the tips may have been by a defender rather than a receiver) of the 4 INTs were touched by a receiver before the pick. Folks will debate whetherthese INTs were primarily the receivers fault or primarily Bledsoe's fault based on their preceonceived notions of whether they hate Bledsoe or not. In general and with no intent to lay blame on a particular player for these bad plays: INT #1 was tipped and caught on the rebound by Deion who danced into the endzone. Protection was not great, but it was a screen and the general intent is to let the rushers in to overun the play thrown over their heads. The original pass was poorly thrown to the receiver to avoisd an ocoming rusher. It was unclear to me until (and if) I do a tape review whether it was a receiver who tipped the ball or the onrushing defender who tipped it. but it was tipped before the INT. INT #2 was a poorly thrown ball by Bledsoe into double coverage in the endzone as Deion peeled off underneath as there was only one receiver and there was coverage deep and limited space in the endzone. INT #3 was thrown behind Mouls but was tipped off his hands and intercepted. INT# 4 was over he middle and off the receivers hands and my recollection (the order of these INTs and what happened here is muddy in my mind as I was well past being frustrated at this point) is that it should have been caught.

Edwards might well come agaimst Ogden or the left side of the Ravens line on a stunt where a DT loops around to the outside and the LDE loops to the inside but I highly doubt that Edwards would line up at LDE or be used there consistently for several reasons: 1. A key to implementation and scheme of the Bills D is the run blitz where the DEs are required to do pass coverage in short zones or man to man on releasing RBs. Denny at least has a large enough wingspan and he and Schobel have the athleticism for this role, but there is no way the 320 or so pound Edwards can peovide this pass coverage. In order for Edwards to play LDE it would mean redoing our whole D scheme or telegraphing exactly what he will be doing each play. 2. 320 pounds may be a great weight for bullrushing or plugging the middle but simply is too high a weight for the outside speed rushes traditionally done by the LDE (by choice) or to contain outside runs which is a job the DE is forced into if that is the way the O initiates a play. As an example of how body size tends to relate to LDE duties consider Bruce Smith (he is not an example of what an LDE should do because almost LDEs do not compare at all to Bruce). he was headed toward 300 pounds when he came into the league, but quickly realized that he would be a more effective player at a lighter weight and generally his sculpted body played the position at about 265 pounds. 3. Just as many fans simply want to shuffle the OL players as though they were tinkertoys and try to view G,C, and T positions as interchangeable they aren't on the DL either. Its more flexible as there are only four players and genrally there is both an inside and an outside gap the players are covering or attacking so they can do both types of jobs, there is such huge difference between the pursuit responsibilities and capabilites of DTs and DEs they generally are no interchangeable positions. The idea of moving Edwards outside permanently is understandable as his good play last week has made him the flavor of the week, but generally such a move makes no sense given the type of D the Bills run and the demographics of Edwards.

It's doubtful that this would happen if only because a stiff-arm is retaliation and defense aginst a player looking to make a tackle. As eion does not tackle beond pushing folks OB from behind, I doubt WM gets a chance to punish him with the stiff arm as he did that twerp Edwards.

Correct. And if Willis is your future and Travis is ready to play then you play Travis in the present. If you are banking on WM being your future than the key is to continue your future's slow steady rehab from a horrible knee injury and to raise Henry's trade value so you can get a 1st rounder for him. In terms of the slow steady progress rehabbing WM rushing back in to start after he carried the ball for the first time more than 20 times against NFL talent (and actually one few times he has ever carried the ball more than 20 times ever as he has less history of doing this at Miami than one might expect. He came to prominence later in his college career moving up to takeover as their #1 RB when their starter Gore suffered a grievous injury. He racked up big yardage not because he was a workhorse who got tons of carries but because of his ability to average good yars per carry. Miaimi was also a track school several deep at RB because even with the ore injury they could still give WM a blow rather than force him to carry the ball every down). Seeing how WM recovers from his great performance Sunday seems like the smart thing to do for the long term. In terms of raising TH's value. It would also be foolish to rush him back before he is ready, but if he is ready then its time for him to comeback and avoid any reputation as damaged goods. If TH is physically ready, starting him this weekend is the smart thing to do whether you want him to remain a Bill as our #1, remain a Bill as co-$1 RBs, or trade him away for maximum value.

I also doubt that Henry will be a Bill next year. The question I'm trying to get at is what should the Bills do right here and right now about this situation. I think those who advocate start WM tomorrow and becnh henry even if TH is healthy are advocating a stance that makes sense for the good of the Bills. I think by far the thing which makes sense for MM to try to do is to start Henry (assuming he is physically able) and to attempt to get him back to the level of production he has had the last two years and preferably (though with great difficulty unfortunately given the selfishness prevalent in today's world) try to create an offense where these 2 RBs perform productively on the field and remain contractually happy campers off the field working together. He has a small but doable chance of pulling off this neat trick: 1. Its been done before and is being done right now (the injuries and contracts allow their 2 be 2 #1 quality RBs in Carolina) to the great on the field benefits to the team. 2. Both players are under contract this year and next forcing one of them to take the unlikely route of throwing a hissy fit if WM or TH were to choose not to want to play well together. If either player were to throw such a fit they would: A. Forgo paychecks right now B. lessen their long-term value C. delay or derail their injury recovery D. run the risk that the other RB plays well and they gain nothing as the Bills sit and wait assuming one of them would be so foolish as to declare war on the Bills and their teammates. 3. As the playoffs are a remote possibility this year, the team has few incentives to pursue some lomhbsll strategy of speeding along WMs recovery at the maximum possible speed at the potential cost of rehabilitating TH's play. In fact, if you view TH as definite trade bait as soon as you get a good offer for him, then the thing to do his to get him to play and produce a good result as soon as you can and then sit him so he is not hurt before you can trade him and resume the rehab of WM. From the Bills point of view I think you play WM or TH as injury to them allows. If they can survive and are potent together, great. If they survive but one must go, fine also but you have to rehab and play TH if you want to command maximum trade value for him. If TH is ready to play this weekend, I see no other choice that is good for the Bills besides starting him whether you want to keep him or to trade him.

Cliff notes begin: TH and WM will profit most as athletes getting rings and as people getting more money than they have ever seen if they actually learn to play well together and co-exist as Bills. The only reason to forego this sports glory and big bucks is selfishness if they insist on being the #1 RB alone for their team. MM has all sorts of opportunities right now to try to manage things to make this happen even if selfishness makes this outcome remote. Both players are under contract for this year and next and for the Bills sake he should resist being pushed by the soap opera folks who want 1 and only 1 star and try to make a 2 RB deal work. There is history from last year's Carolina team to the perfect Dolphins of the 70s who successfully shared the rick among three RB of this happening. Cliff Notes end It seems to me the goal for the Bills at RB should be pretty clear. Have two productive RBs (in case of injury and to run a teo RB attack from time to time) at a cost which is manageable within the cap. The Bills seem to have that right now (rejoice everyone!) and contractually can even have that next year without signing anyone to a new contract. Unfortunately, this is where reality and the soap opera sets in. The reality is that every athlete wants to make as much money as he can during his short career and who can really blame them for that (afterall, in terms of taking care of family if and when they marry or simply letting Mom and/or Dad live retirement in total luxury if they choose who would argue with that in addition if they are selfish athletic pride means they want to play well and money comes along with that). The soap opera is that we fans have little brains and the idea of having tow heroes at RB seems to be too much for many fans who want one and only one guy to be the top dog. The reality is also that the conventional wisdom of an RB needing as many touches as he can get to try to establish himself so he can finally bust out as WM did last week after a bleak start (3.2 ypc through 20 or so rushes until he hit the 31 yarder) seems to generally be the rule in the NFL. However, this we must have 1 RB rule is clearly breakable in the NFL and good things do result from having 2 RBs. Carolina is but the most recent example where they have found a way to keep both Stephen Davis and DeShaun foster going and this paid off with an SB berth last year. The cadillac move in NFL history is that the perfect Dolphins of the 70s somehow found a way to share the ball between 3RBs (Csonka, Kiick and Morris) and have all of them be happy and the payoff was a perfect record. At any rate, the Bills and Mularkey probably will not be able to pull off the trick sharing the rock between Henry and WM, but it seems to me by far to be the best thing for the Bills for them to try. It ain't over until it is over, but the playoffs seem doubtful this year so I think the team has little to lose by trying to makea shared relationship work. The potential for injury and the two RBs in question being encouraged to be class acts and TEAM players are keys for this to work. WM knows better than anyone how quickly football injury can change your life and he has gooten through hard work and good representation a second chance with beaucoup bucks. Henry is the player suffering from injury and potential dethroning right now. His poor fiscal management has already led him to trade freedom/time for a few bucks. Even under the best of conditions he has to survive using his running style for 25 more games before he even gets a shot at a new big deal. Even this chance is dicey since he will go into it with some tough years on his body and controversy this year and potentially next. The other good news for the Bills is that QB Bledsoe (despite complaints about his most recent output or lack thereof) really is a shining example of being a TEAM player and having it pay off for him bigtime. A younger guy took his job with no complaints for him about his ego being bruised. He has a new extension and big bucks on his old big buck contract and a career which boasts and SB appearance and SB win he played essential roles in making happen. One of his buddies Lawyer Milloy is now fellow teammate of WM and TH and provides another living example of big bucks and rings coming to a player who took the high road and simply honored his contract. If I'm MM, I think by far the best thing for the Bills is for him to try to work this year toward finding a way to make use of both TH and WM. He must foster a positive relationship between the two where they pull off the Sayers/Piccollo number. They were two thousand yard rushers in the same backfield. The Bills will have to find a new way to pull this off since I see no signs of WM and TH becoming best buddies off the field and I hope neither dies of cancer. However, both stand great potential to profit financially and as athletes from being good teammates who share the RB load which is bigger than 1 man. Overall, it will likely be simple selfishness and egotism which will be their downfall. Is the main reason why two # 1 RBs cannot exist on the same team. Clearly in terms of the sport having two RBs who share the role would be the berst thing to have. Injuries simply happen so often in the NFL that in any given week will be like last week where both are judged healthy but clearly only one of them is going to get the bulk of if not all the carries. In terms of money, both also stand to maximize their personal profit by sharing the RB role. At this point, I think it is pretty doubtful given Henry's running style that he is actually going to get a worldbeater contract a year and a half from now. I think financially a bird in the hand would actually have him do another extension as he did before with TD after this season. Assuming he comes back from this injury, TD would be foolish not to extend hima few years at a nice payoff which is cap manageable as long as TH/WM work well together. The same is true for WM as after this contract, he has one big one he has a reasonal shot at getting and it 2 and a half years away. If he shares duty with TH, he will not only be able to rehab at whatever rate is good for him, but he also will increase his chances of even surviving for two contracts. Most likely TH will probably go down with his running style and WM will get the chance to showcase himself as his FA time is coming near. This is unlikely unfortunately because selfishness seems to rule America these days. However, it is clear from the Pats winning example that being a good teammate is the wayto win rings. Also one passes at the chance to earn the biggest contract by playing well with others, yet TH and WM can esily have more money than they have ever seen by playing well together as Bills. It seems to me most Bills fans should agree.

Certainly rag on Henry all that you want. I think there will be two big problems potentially on Sunday: 1. The injury may be plantar fascitis and may well not be healed well enough for him to produce like he has the past two years (you do agree he has been productive the last two years, most Bills fans do) like he needs to see WM threatens his job. or might easily be reinjured if it has healed enough for him to play. 2. Like Willis so far and most RBs, his first carries can produce next to nothing, but if the HC/OC stick with the run past when faint hearts like Kevin Killdrive would give up on it and get all pass-happy, a runner can end up with a game total over 100 yaards rushing if you stick with him as TC correctly did with WM last week. TH may easily be supplanted for TD by TC without sticking with him. Overall, I like most Bills fans hope that TH stays healthy AND proves to be as productive as he was last season. TH played like a tough cookie with injuries that seem could have easily had a less determined player bench himself. If TH is healthy, I hope he returs to his old form and if so that TC ignores us fans and sticks with TH. The other issue I would raise with your prediction is that I hope it was merely a slap at TH (or it is to be hoped love for WM) and not some great show of faith in Baltimore's offense. Given Boller's issues so far this year, the absence of the running production of Lewis and the likely absence of Heap, I think it is quite likely that the Bills D will put 7 on the board or at least give us the ball close enough to get 3 or more. Your prediction seems quite unlikely.

I won't be surprised if Travis not ready to go because of injury, but given that MM and Willis himself have said Travis is the #1 RB, if will be surprised if Willis starts as an optional decision. If Travis is healthy, the Bills strike me as having so much more to gain from starting him and playing him and also a lot to lose by starting Willis over Travis if the choice is optional, I see them starting Travis.

I say this for Jerry Gray: 1. He proved to me last year that he was no Gregg Williams clone by the way he took to running a totally different D with the responsibility he took for learning and implementing the zone blits. Rather than being a GW clone (actually not a bad clone to be if defense is your only responsibility as offense, game feel and control, and selection and management of his co-ordinators were his issue and few credibly argue that he is not a good DC) Gray has shown the ability with the right players to run the GW style and the radicallt different LeBeau style. 2. Make no mistake he proved he could understand and effectively implement the LeBeau D last year when he retained the DC job and called D schems and plays during the game. One cannot do this effectively unless you understand the zone blitz. LeBeau actually is on record saying that he wanted the gameday job and that both of them sticking around would be difficult for the Bills. For a variety of reasons (age, ability to reach/teach the players, and the NFL's policies to reverse the league's past racial discrimination are among those I see) Gray beat out LeBeau and it looks like a good choice to me. 3. For those worried about strategy, I think execution is the greater Bill worry. The TEAM has run correct D schemes to blunt the opponent in almost all the games in the last two years as the statistical numbers have been great and the points allowed has been outstanding. The problem is that the D is able to execute these plans for about 55 minutes and because our O generally has failed to score or control the ball like they finally did against Miami, the Ds failure to execute in the final 5 minutes or less has been fatal. Gray MAYBE can be faulted for this if you want to blame him for not motivating his players to make the extra effort needed because our O is so bad, game strategy is not his problem. 4. Adjustments have been one of the stronger parts of the Gray game. He and some of the players spoke glowingly of the changes (they can reasonably be called strategic) he made in the D during the bye week last year and it showed on the field as up until everything went south against NE in the final game, the D responded with even more productive play after the bye last year. One need look no further than last week's game to see the excellent impact of his tactical adjustments within games as our D let Sammy Morris and RAC do them in during the first half, but after halftime adjustments they held Miami to 34 yards net. For all of these reasons I can see expanding the Gray contract to meet the time MM is in place. Unsder league policy, if he is offered a promotion (Assistant Head Coach or HC) see he can take it even if he is under contract. This signing takes him off the market for lateral moves in the NFL (big market teams can pay as much for DCs as we pay HCs) and HC jobs at the college level (which he has already gotten feelers for). I think this is a good move.

Perhaps this claim would be legit if he didin't seem to bcredited with so many of his tackles as solo tackles. Perhaps if he is a lightweight unable to bring players down with his hit without help. his tackles 5 yards downfield would provide an opportunity for othjers to finish the job he could not complete and your complaint might be legit. However, of the problem is that he simply gets other folks tackles that should have been made by his pursuit, then making tavkles 5 yards downfield is a big benefit to the Bills becauseif he wasn't there then it would be a 10 yard run. Actually, the Bills stats indicate that they have not given up a lot of yards (its why they;re statistically well into the upper third of teams defensively) and that too the extent the complaint you offer is legit it is prompted by a few noticeable plays which are not the norm for the Bills or his play. In fact, given his motor (which Fletcher uses to compensate for his lack of size) my guess is that the times you notice him tackling someone 5 yards down the fild it is because of his motor allowing him to tackle another player someone else should have met at the line of scrimmage. No one should mistake Fletcher for Dick Butkus and I would not call him a great MLB. However, I would call him a vey gppd (but again not great) MLB whom the Bills signed to a contract paying him a very good but not great (by NFL standards) wage. Fletcher strikes me as well worth what we pay for him and he is a great Bill. He is our second best LB behind Spikes, and is paid that way and Pro Bowl voters andmost fans recognize this. The idea he is a cancer or should be cut is silly.

WM's last operative statement of import (in this "what have you done for me lately" league, a person's last statement rules until they have built up a rep over a long time and even that rep must come with production on the field or it can easily be frittered away) was he was asked after he ran for 111 yards who was the Bills #1RB. McGahee himself flat out said that the #1 RB was Henry and he looked forward to sitting on the bench backing huim up and continuing to learn the game. End of story. end of any rational RB controversy and even if Willis doesn't believe it it was the right thing to say for the TEAM. What Willis says doesn't make the big difference anyway because what MM says goes and even if Willis said he felt he deserved to be #1 RB, it doesn't make it so unless MM wants it that way. Far better for WM to let his onfield play demand the damn ball rather than his mouth. At this point TH gets another game in which he needs to produce or he likely will be sat and WM will get the chance to produce. I think that he has earned this "right of first refusal" with his quality play the last two seasons. If MM were to jump on the WM bandwagon right now and bench TH, I think it would be bad for the team as it would provide a framework for every player to lookout primarily for themselves as it would be clear no one else is going to. Further, I suspect it will be bad for WMs rehab because it has gone fine up until now to take his rehab one step at a time and to resist fan pressure to let him see significant time and even start him last year. I feel fine after WMs great output last week amidst a heavy bruising from the Fins (icluding an illegal illegal late hit by Edwards) to let him sit for a week and see how he recovers from the hits. Giving TH a chance to re-prove himself and secure two running weaons for the Bills is good for the TEAM and probably good for WM's rehab.

Exactly. I have no problem with bringing in formerly productive players in the hopes (even prayers) that modern medicaL science can rehab them to something approximating their former play. Its a long road back for these players like a Garrison Hearst, but when science, luck and hard work form a perfect storm which allows them to return to something like their former glory there are huge benefits for a team. The closest we have come to making this work is actually a injured great college player McGahee trying to pull a Thurman Thomas like comeback. Too early to declare victory in this particular effort, but certainly after last weekend so far so good. The key for the GM is to sign these players to relatively cheap contracts so your risk is manageable and to have the cojones to let them go when they don't play up to snuff. TD has yet to catch lightning in a bottle with an injured former star (Jones type) but he has been pretty good about letting them go. There is another type mentioned in DeeRay's post. There is the former star who is getting older. Again TD has been appropriately mercenary of late with former players like Glidon. The failures of this type under TD are clear ones under the GW reign and neither Jenkins nor Robinson should have been signed. On the other hand, the signing of Sam Adams (and to a contract very favorable to the Bills) was a great one. However, I have no problem with the investments in the Jones, McKenzie, Farris type as they take up camp fodder positions for manageable investments and many of them ad some good experience for the rookies in camp.

I know exagerration is a big part of both the internet and being fan but I think your exaggerations here miss a couple of key points: A big issue determing the potential outcome of this game may well be not the O or the D but ST performance. Ravems rookie BJ Sams has returned two punts for TDs and has returned 4 kicks for 20 or more yards in the 5 Ravens game. The Bills O has been anemic much of this season and will be facing a tough Ravens D which is not close to performing at their old SB levels but will be a tough matchup for the Bills. The same is true for a Ravens O which struggled even with jamal Lewis and losing him is going to put a lot of pressure on Kyle Boller whose 61.3 passer rating pales even im comparison to the much maligned Bledsoe. This game has all the makings of a 0-0 shootout and not only will field position be a big key. but if Sams is able to put points on the board as he has been able to do in 2 of their 5 games the Bills will even have a tougher row to hoe. How you can make such uequivocal statements which totally wipe out questions about Lindell's placekicking when their kicker Stover has made all of his attempts including one from 50 yards and the opportunities we have because McGee was leading the league in KO returns is beyond reality. ST is going to make a huge difference in the performance of both team's O and D and may flat out decide this game. 2. In terms of overarching analysis you seem to pose a false choice between those who judge our D to be mediocre and those who judge our D to be great. I think this choice is simply wrong as the Ds performance late in games simply indicates they are not great. However, their statistical performance which easily ranks in the top third of the league clearly indicates the D is better than mediocre. They virtually shut down MI with the wind at their backs Sunday and held them to a mere 36 yards in enitre second half Sunday and in terms of the only stat that really matters for a unit (W/L is the only stat that matters for the team) they have held 4 of 5 opponents below 20 points. If only our O could score a reasonable amount.

The betting line is a fairly good approximation of a prediction of the real game results, but folks should never forget that it has a clear goal which is to deliver a profit for the people who book the bets. The line is only secondarily a statement of the relative quality of the teams because its primary purpose is to be set at a level which attracts a roughly equal number of bettors to bet on both teams. Teams with large fan bases in their hometowns, particularly if their hometowns include a larger number of bettors than the norm or the opponent will need relatively little inducement to book bets even if irrational for their team. The linesmakers take this into account and seem to adjust the line appropriately so a middle is not created consistently in cases for teams which do not draw a lot of action. There are so many bettors out there that though these types of statistical opportunities are often created, they rarely last very long as the money flows in to meet them. However, these "false" predictions are created all the time. Folks wondered why the Bills were so strongly favore against the Fins when a -6 Bills spread did not seem dictated by our team's play. The Ricky debacle, RB injuries and the 0-6 record of the Fins made a huge Bills line necessary to draw any action on the Fins even in a betting heavy area like FLA. The huge line against the Ravens to some extent reflects a return to normalcy as the Bills are an unglamorous team which has not been on Monday Night Football for awhile and in a low population center with perceptions of a lousy economy drying up dollars bet on this 1-4 team. The line is deigned less to predict the outcome than to attract bets on the Bills.

start and play a full 60 before I turned the starting reins over to him. In addition if your answer to this is to cut Adams you are also expressing confidence in Bannan and rookie Tim Anderson as back-ups. I think we have proven to be better with a productive Sam Adams if MM can oull off this management task,

Edwards has played much better this year (as a sporadic back-up form time to time and finally in a consistent role in the final two quarters plus last weekend). However, he flatout sucked as the lone benchwarmer among starters drafted before and after him his rookie year. He was overmatched when he started his second year as the Bills had a weak front D four after switching to a 4-3 from a 3-4 at the same time we were losing Wiley to FA, Hansen to retirement, and Big Ted and Bruce to the salary cap. He also sucked as a reserve last year when other teams would clearly run all over us when the injury bug slowed Adams and PW. I need to see a little more from Edwards in terms of long-tem consistency and him being called upon to start a

I think BBs rep was also hurt by his flip-flop on the NYJ HC job when he said he woukd take it and soon after said he would not. Both the Cleveland failure and this episode were part of the learning process for BB which helped make him the great HC he is today. Even still, though he is a great HC, everyone needs luck to win. The gift of the refs cal in the snow on Brady's fumble/pass, and his players stepping up after BB mismanaged the Milloy situation last year and the TEAM suffered some grievous injuries were huge factors in his success along with him being a great HC and having Scott Pioli's help.

I don't see any tip-toeing either as both MM and WM have made it clear drom their statements that Henry is the starter. Perhaps what you really might mean (I don't know what you really mean since your statement is the opposite of what MM and WM are saying) is why doesn't MM name WM the starter ecause WMs stats are better? There can be a number of good reasons for this beyond merely koweowing to TH: 1. WM isn't ready to start- So far so great as to WMs progress, but he his embarking on a long road back from a brutal injury and impatient fans demanding that he start last month simply doesn't match the reality of his rehab. WM is a first year player and even under the best of circumstances it is not the norm that a 1st year player starts. Recovering from his devastating injury is clearly not the best of circumstances even for a top 5 player. He only began to show his burst of old two weeks ago in practice and it seems counter-productive to his rehab to immediately give him starter responsibility. I think that taking a week to see how WM heals from getting smashed around by the Fins without the pressure of him reporting I'm fine put me in coach as most athletes do when given starter responsibility seems by far to be the prudent thing to do. 2. MM has always wanted to use both of them alot- If this is the goal, creating a firestorm in the media by strongly endorsing the illusion that Travis is going to sit seems dumb. Both runners seem to be the type who get stronger as the game goes on and it will be a trick to give each 10-15 carries per game and see them develop a rhythm rather than giving one RB a definite 25 a game. However, if the two of them develop the ability to play together so a D has difficulty keying on either they both will be more effective. This is difficult to pull off but the benefits if it works would be huge. Miami in the old days found away to make it work with 3 RBs (Csonka, Kiick and Morris) sharing the running duty to a flawless record so imagining the two of them pulling this off is not impossible. 3. In the modern NFL with injuries keeping two starters at RB is a good thing- The key here for the TEAM is not to get caught up in the soap opera of who are you going to use exclusively but to get caught up in the football reality of how do you use both players most effectively. Even if you decide to trade TH, demoting him because you judge him to be not a good player does not enhance his trade value. A gentle transition moving from TH starting to naming them co-starters, to finally trading one of them (probably TH) to obtain a new quality back-up and/or draft picks seems by far to be the way to handle this situation.

The answer to the question which started this thread is that Howard Simon laid out the theory that MM is close to the age of being a former player (certainly closer in age to the players than most of the wise old men who eun this game( and as such the idea that a player should not lose his job because of injury is something he ascribes to). In his press conference at the end of work late today, MM basically said as much and the reason why Henry is starter is because he couldn't go cause he was hurt and this year WM is far more credible back-up becoming starter than Joe Burns was. Overall, I can see the logic of this approach to a point that it is silly to sit a better player for a lesser player. By having a general rule that a player will not lose his job to injury you foster a sense of being a TEAM rather than a group of individuals. However, this general rule is meant to be broken if the disparity in production between the two players is as big for example as the difference in the TEAMs play with Flutie at the helm compared to RJ at the helm. IN WMs case, I was happy to see him say in his press conference yesterday that Henry was the starter and he expected to mostly warm the bench next week. He'll geet hos chance soon enough and even if Henry is ready to go next week, he'll be on a short-leash and need to produce or WM comes in and stays in as long as he produces. WM played a great game Sunday but took a bruising as well (getting late-hitted by Edward whom he paid back with a glorious stiff arm and run into a pail on the sideline on one tackle). I would not be surprised if WM profits from a week off to heal after getting smacked around nor would I be surprised to see him wear down if he were given the starting RB job and depended upon as our feature back.

Actually most league watchers agree that Sam Adams goes on vacation on a lot of plays but have said that Adams actually took plays off a lot less last season than he has in the past. It probably was an internal change on his part because he realized he was getting older rather than TD or GW getting into his head. but I think TD actually researched this case correctly as he got him just at the right time in his life. I think the pick-up of this fat tub of goo was critical for the Bills improvement from the swinging door defense of the first two years under GW/Gray to the number 2 statistically ranked D last year under LeBeau/Gray. The reports are that Adams actually worked out duringthe off-season under Rusty Jones guidance and that he was in far better shape than he has been during his career. if you don't believe that Adams was a pivotal pick-up to the Bills improvement last year, one need look no further than last year's game in the Meadowlands where Adams had to sit out with imjury and Curtis Martin ran all over Edwards and Bannan. I think the most noticeable thing about the inappropriate Adams tirade this weekend was that his insubordination took the form of him refusing to come out rather than him folowing his old habit of refusing to play and pouting. TD signed Adams for less than other teams offered for him and he made a good read as best as I can tell.

The goaline stand on Sunday was of their own making because they failed to stone Miami (an incredibly stoppable O w/o Rickey), but it was cruch time beauseit was 1st and goal from the 1 and the D stopped them. Given the wind, situation ans Miami was knocking on the door for a tie with it going against them this was crunch time. Likewise, they then faced Miami with the wind against them the rest of the way and shut them down. I would not wet my pants over this because it was just Miami. but the D certainly did the job Sunday and from a TO for a TD from Spikes to the surprising Edwards step up the unit deserve a lot of praise and if we are lucky this is the start of a change from being good to being great. They are far from great (witness the crucn time drives, the pass rush problems of the front-four. and the safety play without Milloy - his tackles make the difference between this being a #2 statistical squad to bein a #8 statistical squad) but they are at least a good squad which is in the upper third of the league in terms of D.

I think that you were correct when you said that stopping teams in crunch time and carrying the water to put up a W even when your O stinks is the difference between good and great. This is what made the Bears 85 D and the SB Ravens great. As a Bears fan (I grew up in Chicago and was even at the Gears game against SF where Gale Sayers was first hurt) I always felt we had a better chance to score when our D was out there than when McMahon was in control. They were great Ds and we are not. However, you are correct in applying this assessment to the current Bills D if you also are willing to acknowledge they are good. The D has the failings you mention which stop them being great, but they are far more productive than the O and if the weren't a good D we would be 0-5 today and the 4 Ls our TEAM put up would have all looked like the NE game rather than the D at least keeping us in games against Jax, Oak and NYJ so that we could blow it at the end. I think Gary is correct and your assessment is also correct unless you view any D that isn't great as being a total failure.

I wouldn't call him a big winner because his team is still 1-4 in the fourth year of his 3 year rebuilding plan, but yesterday's play was directly contrary to some of the complaints lodged against TD lately. 1. His draft prowess has been faulted alot lately with folks grudgingly calling his first draft good (or merely OH if you are a TD hater) but labeling him a failure in terms of his later drafts. For the first time WM showed a huge recovery from his injury. He not only logged over 100 yards on the ground, but also a chunk of receiving yards as he and the team executed the shovel pass to great effect. It interests me that the braintrust publicly noted that the burst is there in practice like it hasn't been for WM. It interests me that this burst came back after he was essentially benched against Oakland. WM showing the talent which had him #3 on the Bills 2003 draft board would go along way toward that year's draft being declared a success for TD. Its too early to make that judgement from my view but this first step needs to happen before you can take a second step. 2. I for one have complained loudly and long about Edwards. He disappointed as a rookie since he was basically the only highly drafted player in that draft to contribute nothing to the team. He did not deserve to start his second year. When Adams got hurt and was out for the NYJ game last year, Edwards presence was otable in that he got run all over. Yet, I would be amongthe first to sing his praises for stepping up bigt time yesterday both in terms of his individual stats and how the TEAMs production improved with him in there. TD gets the credit if Edwards keeps it up for overseeing an outstanding draft his first year. 3. TD's big failing in my view was a complete failure in hiring GW as HC. He certainly avoided hiring a guy who could fire him like he did with Cowher, but the Bills W/L suffered from this choice. MM needs to win his first gae before he can win his second and it is to be hoped this is the start on his way to a great record and for Bills fans TD being a big success. Its too early to declare him a success and he probably won't lose his job regardless of how we do on the field (at least thi season) because he has delivered for Ralph on the business side. However, you have to take the first step before you can take the second one and yesterday's performance was essential for TD.