Fake-Fat Sunny

Cliffnotes Bgin: Sorry folks no cliffnotes for this one as this semi-academic exploration is all thery that hangs together. It is not for the faint of heart so if you or your boss can't deal with you considering these ramblings ski it. Cliffnotes end. I call this thread semi-academic becausewith the production problems we have at QB, no discussion of this position can be truly theoretical as individual opinions about what JP needs to develop into the Bills QB of the future all Bills fans want colors this exploration. In addition to concerns about the Bills future which strike me as wholely legitimate, folks biases about QB development driven by their doap opera love or hatred for Bledsoe completey obscures a football discussion of this issue. Nevertheless, I think there are a lot of great football minds on this board (in addition to those transfixed by their love or hatred of Bledsoe) and I am curious what folks think about what it takes to develop a contributing NFL pro QB. There are a number of things folks have spouted as though they are undebatable truisms which simply strike me as wrong when one looks at the actual occurences in the NFL. These include: 1. A 1st round pick must pay off in his first year or it was a bad pick by the team. This truism has been said by many but it is just plain wrong. There are just too many cases of players who ended up having great careers or who ended up being judged great contributors to the team that chose them who either did not play at all their first year as they learned the game or simply sucked when they played. One need look no further than the Bills Eric Moulds who almost universally is judged as the best athlete on this team and has hadsome very productive years as a Bill but simply did nothing as a player intially on this squad. The idea that a non productive 1st round picked player his first year and actually even several years into his career in some cases is simply a bust in all cases does not correspond to the reality. 2. A 1st round QB must play some his first year to learn the game so he can contribute his second year. The fact that a first round drafted player need not even play his first year and still turn out to be a great pick is even more true when one is talking about QBs. In an oversystematized NFL, these players simply have to learn the game in order to be productive pros. However, they need not play to do this learning and become productive. Even in recent history one need only observe that Michael Vick and Chad Pennington sat out all or most of their rookie years and came in as starters their second year and led their teams to the playoffs. In our particular case I would love to see JP start and lead us to victory after victory. However. I certainly don't expect or demand this even though I hope it is true. I can easily see JP sitting all this year and it being the best thing for his development as a Bill. I do not see him sitting this year as mandating that 2005 will be a building with no contribution year for him. I suspect playing will be good for his development, but mop-up duty would probably be fine for simply developing him. 3. A player must play to develop the esentials to be a contributing NFL player (one poster stated the stuff he will learn watching and practicing are at most 20% of what he needs). I agree with this generally, but also feel that playing is only one essential part of the equation for the NFL QB. For JP in particular, the things he needs to learn that will only come from playing strike me as actually less of a focus of his needs that the other things he MUST ALSO learn in order to be a contributor. Talking about the specifics of our case, these are the things I see JP needing (I suspect I am missing some big issues here so other contributions of ideas from posters are appreciated), my guesstimate of the percentages of the total learning he will need to do to become a contributing Bills QB, and where he will get this knowledge: 1. JP must learn to play at NFL speeds and against NFL opponents (30%) - playing in games in the regular and pre-season: My sense is that from what I have seen JP is quite the athlete. His own natural ability and athleticism, will and has allowed him to adjust quite well to playing against a team made up of players who are as fast and as big as any of his past opponents. This learning will mainly come playing in real games, but he got a real dose of this in his brief preseason and scrimmage appearances in terms of facing opponents who were really after him and in praactice against fellow Bills he gets a real does of the speed and size. Unfortunately he probably learned a valuable lesson from Vincent that one can never be too careful in being prepared for a hit. Still, I think he wil profi from playing real games and practicing against the #1 Bills D because he will get to see stuff he has seen from the booth and on paper over the centers head. Still from what I have seen in pre-season and on college highlight tapes I am less worried about the extras he will get from playing which he must get because he brings a lot to the table interms of some of the moves he has shown and hits he has taken. 2. JP must learn NFL offenses and defenses (30%)- This is one of the biggest things for any rookie and separates them from the vets. Part of this will come from the item above of his playing real games and seeing Ds over the center's butt. The piece I am referring to here is JP developing an NFL sense of the Bills playbook, what MM/Clements are trying to do, and perhaps most important knowing what opponents are tyring to do to stop the Bills O and where there efforts leave them vulnerable. JPs injury may be the best thing that could have happened to his development if he used the time to sit in the booth and really study opponents and the NFL way from above without the distraction of making himself ready to lead in case on bizarre injuries, horsing around on the sidelines and most important getting Sam Wyche to download to him why teams did what they did in particular cases. His development in this area may have greatly be accelerated because there is no chance of hom playing with hisinjury. 3. JP must get his mechanics down in a correct and repetitive fashion (20%)- I hope this is not a big issue, but certainly one ofthe things he has to do to survive and make plays at Tulane was run for his life as their blocking broke down, and often make a pass anyway he could even if it involved throwing off-balance or off the wrong foot. Putting up floaters might have worked in college against opponents who could not make plays like the biiger faster pro players or who did not know the game as well so they were not even a position to make a play. However, if he plays in the pros using things which may have suceeded in college they will eat huim for lunch. Another thing about the NFL is that it is oversystematized in my view and coaches run complex schemes which require players to run plays, turn for catches, male passes, etvetera the same way everytime, Players build chemistry with each other because they begin to anticipate and learn the variations which a player will make on a given play. However, it all starts with repetition and sameness and builds from there. JP suceeded by free-lancing in college behind a porous line. In th pros he will have to minimize free-lancing ans simply make plays like his colleagues expect him to make them or with variations they begin to understand and expect from him and which he begins to understand and expect about them. I only assign this number so high because JP will need to show in practice alone with Wyche, then with a ball boy, then with the scrub players and back-up receivers and finally with the starters and back-ups that his mechanics are good and they are predictable. 4. JP will have to show an ability to lead through success and being a good teammate (10%)- Again this is a lesser area of concern for me because JP shows all the signs of impressing folks with his leadership abilities based in his athletcisim which apparently border on a cockiness some people find to be negative. The main thing here is that he needs to be successful and a good athlete as what some take for arrogance becomes him being a solid guy IF there is good production and a winning record to accompany whatever attitude he has. His injury at the hands of Vincent was interesting because I get some impression that it may have occured because he took a little bit of advantage from the fact QBs in practice are wearing a "can't hit me" vest. He ran with the ball or took advntage of the hands off policy and got popped by a vet in part to take him downm a notch. As it happened this lesson ended up with Vincent hurting a teammate which is not good. If thiswas the case, I hope that JP has internalized lessons from this which have appropriately cooled his jets and not made him gunshy or caused any crisis on the team. At any rate I think JP will develop a lot by playing the game (30-40%) but the majority of what he needs will actually come from the sidelines and practice (50% or more). Thes percentages are squishy and there are intiail facets of the game which best come off the field and these are finished off by filled out on the field. It is to be hoped that his enforced sitting time was well used by him to increase the effectiveness of future on field play. However, as I have said, it would not be unreasonable to see virtually of this year be beneficially spent on the bech in terms of his development. Folks may be so sick of Drew that they will benefit from seeing him lay. However, what is good for us in terms of entertainment and good for the Bills in terms of him becoming a contributor are two different things,

Avoiding the fairly worthless editorial comments, the next player on the depth chart for kick returns after McGee is Josh Reed.

Where do you get this number of only 20% of what you need (I assume as a pro QB) can come on the sideline and practice. First, I think what a player needs to learn and the players ability to learn it varies a lot depending upon the player. Some rare folks are Peyton Manning and between him having a great football brain and growing up with the schooling of his Daddy Archie, what he needed was to play at NFL speed against pro opponents and see opposing Ds from over the centers back. With his football mind and a rapier release this was a player who probably fits your description of only 20% of the learning he needed coming to him in practice or the sideline. In fact, I think there is a good argument that 10% or less of what Manning needed was to be found elsewhere than playing the game as his quick release and diagnostic mind made him an immediate starter for Indy and the only player in all of football to start all 16 games at QB for his team that year. On the other hand, you had a player like Michael Vick is one of the most exciting players to watch playing any position in the NFL. He immediately brought to AT an ability to run which was a flat-out weapon and nullified opposing blitzes immediately for fear of defenders overcommitting and Vick exploiting them. In addition, Vick brought a powerful arm to the game which was not taught but simply a god-given gift, Yet, despite these extraordinary tools, Vick sat virtually all of his first season. Why? Because two of his greatest needs to become a productive NFL QB was first to learn NFL offenses and defenses because to win in the pros he would need to coordinate and could not simply depend upon him being by far better than every other player on the field like he was in college. This learning came from watching tape and watching games on the sideline until he learned his craft. The second issue was that though he could freelance all over the place and win in college, he needed to restrain his game and learn to throw passes the same way everytime to suceed in the oversystematized NFL and to develop chemistry with his receivers and blockers. I think practicing throwing the same passes over and over the same way with the ballboys and practicing with the receivers to build chemistry on the practice field. I'm sure that Vick could have started and provide a few highlight film runs and even throws right away, but I'd estimate that 80% of the learning he needed was from off the field stuff. Chad Pennington who was taken at roughly the same spot as JP also sat his entire first year and like Vick took his team to the playoffs his second year after sitting all or at least virtually all of his first year. In terms of JP, I think he is not a runner like Vick (who is) but he has shown a degree of athleticism that makes me less concerned about his need to play folks at NFL speeds (he also used to running for his life behind lousy blocking which unfortunately is good experience to bring to leading this Bills team). I also think the leadership ability and pluckiness he has shown will be akin to the control Pennington immediately brought to the Jets. I'm less worried about him getting the finishing shool aspects which playing the game brings to all young players than I am worried about him doing the tape and book learning that I hope will bring him to Jim Kelly like levels of being a coach on the field and about him redeveloping his mechanics under Wyche/Clements/Mularkey which will come with repetitive practice. I have not seen or heard enough about JP's play (another reason for him to spend a few weeks practicing) to really judge where he is. However, my guess is that at least 50% of what he needs to become a contributing NFL QB is going to be found off the field and perhaps as much as 75%, Starting him this season will certainly provide good entertainment for me and good grins for those motivated by their hatred of Bledsoe, but in terms of his development as the Bills QB of the future if our braintrust (which has shown good QB chops with Maddx and Kordell despite missing the boat with Bledsoe) judges him not to be ready to start until 2005 I will not consider this a complete failure.

I think you miss the point here, aren't repeating accurately the history and a showing a clearunderstanding of the result of that history. Upshaw does not want to get rid of the salary cap at all. His main quote on this point in the article was an expression of fear that unless they move quickly to reach an agreement the salary cap will be lost and that will be tough on the union and players as the rich teams will kill the fatted calf for their individual profits and the league and the whole will lose out on the profits which have made them all rich. If the one considers the last time as the last set of negotiations between the NFL and NFLPA which extended the existence of the salary cap and fine tuned the CBA, the owners did not hold firm at all, they recognized that there is a growing partnership between the NFL and NFLPA and under the certainty that this partnership brings both parties are getting rich like never before from TV money. As far what the history was, one might consider the player strike of the mid -80s as the last time and here the NFL hired replacement players and held firm. They best back and nearly destroyed the NFLPA which under the leadership of Ed Garvey was demanding 51 or 52% of the gross. However, this "victory" was relatively short-lived because the NFLPA under the leadership of Gene Upshaw with a bunch of great advice responded to this beating by the owners by announcing the players plan to decertify and abandon their own union. The authority to take this radical action was granted by the players since their union had gotten its butt totally kicked in the strike. The NFL however, found itself and its sense of control to be a victim to winning the strike. If the union decertified itself, suddenly the NFL would find the many restraints of trade agreed to by the defunct union such as the NFL player draft over and done with. NFL teams would suddenly have to operate in a strange new world we call the free market. If teams actually competed against each other based on the golden rule (he has the most gold wins) then small market teams would get totally obliterated and relatively quickly in the team game of football become non-competitive. In the face of fearing the free market, the NFL then capitulated and went into serious negotiations with the NFLPA and from that discussion came the new partnership based on the salary cap and the CBA. The true irony to me is that by running away from the free market, both sides formed a collaboration which has most agreeing that the NFL is the best run of all the professional leagues. The fiarly unAmerican agreement between the NFL and NFLPA to harshly restrain competition and free market negotiation by owners for players has resulted in a great game to root for and to watch. The view that the NFL is somehow a fight between owners and players completely misunderstands the benefits to the owners and players in terms of finance they have gotten from collaboration and misunderstands the benefits of good sport which has come from leveling the playing field (not completely but certainly fundamentally) in terms of dollars.

I think many Bills fans are saying start him as soon as he is ready. However, when he is ready means: 1. Wait until he heals from his injury. I think some fanatics advocate starting hin right now this weekend, but this view runs counter to MM saying publicly he is 2-3 weeks away. Further, the game 3 weeks away will be on the road against NE which seems like one of the worst places against BB preparations to begin his learning process. Even for those who say the only thing to take into account is his physical injury 4 weeks from now against an offesive minded St. Louis squad seems more reasonable. 2. Ready for others means mentally ready as well and see it as being bad for his development to start him until the Bills braintrust feels that he has done some absorption of the Bills offense and shows understanding of NFL offensive and defensive patterns and reactions. This is very much a classroom, tape, and booklearning activity and eithery you trust the judgment of MM, Clements and Wyche or you don't. Few if any rookies (Peyton Manning and Dan Marino being among the few exceptions) have been ready to apply this skill consistently in their first year (RoboQB looks good so far for Pittsburgh). Playoff qualifying QBs like Pennington and Vick sat out most or all of the years before the demonstrated they had this skill down. Given that JP comes out of a great college career where he did well running for his life behind an underpowered college line, I'm pretty willing to accept that his time to start may not be here yet from the standpoint of him developing into the QB of the future the Bills want. Given the success MM and Clements has in reviving the careers of Maddox and Kordell and given Wyche\s resume and skills I'm willingto trust their judgment on wether the best thing for JP's development is a full bore start in 04, spot and mop-up duty in 04 or his first start start in 05. 3. In addition to these two concerns, there is a lot of reasonable it seems to me concern about JPs mechanics. As he ran for his life making great plays in college he did make a bunch of throws in college (and maybe developed some bad habits, but just maybe) that simply will not make it in the pros. Pro offenses are so oversystematized in my view that it has become essential that a QB throw it virtually the same way everytime so as to develop proper positioning and chemistry with his receivers. In addition, while making a throw which is not as powerful as it could be because the QB threw it off the wrong foot or with poor balance may fly in college, the bigger faster NFL players will likely eat these passes for lunch. JP needs to demonstrate to the Bills braintrust that he has the ablity to apply good consistent mechanics. To the extent he needs work on this, it is something which is probably best done in practice with the JUGS machine or a ball boy to catch passes rather than throwing off some receiver and developing bad habits with them. I dunno we will see. So I am one who does not consider himself a Bledsoe apologist because I certainly advocated cutting him and going in another direction as soon as last seasion ended. However, I am one of those who says certainly DO NOT start JP now because he does not appear to be physically ready. Further, I'd love to see him judged ready to go by the St. Louis game, but I can easily see the braintrust making a rational judgment that is best for the Bills that JP needs to demonstrate more in terms of the mental and/or mechanical part of the game that they judge him not ready to start at all until the 2005 season. I doubt this will be the case, and I figure that at the very least JP will see some signficant mop-up time this season. Actually, I think his injury may end uo being the best thing that could have happened to him in terms of his development as the Bills QB of the future IF he spent his 5 weeks off up in the booth watching NFL offenses and defenses and learning from Sam Wyche without having the distraction of leading his teammates if as disaster QB he had been callled uoon to play. Still, because I'm a Bills fan I pretty firmly advocate that the Bills start him when he is ready physically, mentally and in terms of his mechanics. One cannot replace learning the NFL QB position on the field. However, the essential things which I think starting or playing will give to JP such as learning to play at NFL speeds against real opponents and learnng how to be a leader which can only really be done on the field are the least of my worries about this strong athlete and near-cocky giy. The books, the tape, the booth and practicing mechanics are the keys to JP developing into the great QB we all want. I'm far more interested in him devoting his time during this losing season to these facets than I am seeing him spend his time and effort (no human can do it all at the drop of a hat) on the field and losing games and running for his life behind our OL on the field.

I respond to this guest's quote about TV markets despite his anonymity because though he gets the particulars of the import of big markets and TV wrong in terms of his conclusion he does raise a vaild point. TV money does rule the NFL as what was once a sport that happened to be a business (when it was the primary or an important part of the wealth of the Rooneys, Halas , etc and others who ran the NFL, now it is a business that happens to be a sport and football wealth is merely a part of the wealth of new entrants such as the Snyders, and even old standbys who have made far more from the investment of their wealth than they do from the chubby cheeked folks who fill the football seats. Still if it is all so simple and straightforward as he theorizes then has many correctly point out why has the NFL passed up so many opportunities to get a team into LA as they have added new teams several times and new owners more than that. Mor importantly, why on earth would they plunk one of the new teams in a dying NE city like Cleveland instead of going west to the unfilled media markets or to the big computer bucks there. Part of the answer is the antitrust laws which baseball as some exemption from but football doesn't and remains free from meeting the requirements of this law as the NFL and NFLPA collude to avoid the free-market because there is alot more money to be made on their part by contolling the market and not investing in free trade. As long as the boat isn't rocked, then this gentleman's agreement can go on.Modell rocked the boat bigtime when he moved to Baltimore, but because he was in the club and moving to a former NFL town he could not be stopped. Cleveland made the real threat to push an antitrust suit which would bring the NFL/NFLPA deal and other transgressions against thre free market and American rights of individuals to the fore in terms of judicial scrutiny. If the Bills were to move, the NFL would once again face this threat and my bet is that just as the new partnership caved in the face of Cleveland's threat because there was more money to be made by gurfanteeing this city the next expansion team and also just as the owners caved after killing the union leadership in the mid 80s strike, so to are they likely to cave if Buffalo mounted a suit unless the NFL satisfied the region. The Golisano, Jacobs folks et al. will need to fund a suit (a cheap prospect ccompared to butimg a team) and once having won that can then move on to fund a team with little competition driving up their costs for it. The Bills may move as anything can happen, but the reality of the current reality makes this unlikely even when Ralph dies. It won't be easy but this easily can be done if a few folks step to the plate and it looks like afew folks with the bucks will be around to do this.

Clumping platelets has the most up to date Bills cap info which he posts over at Billszone.com. I will leave it to him to explain how he figures it but as best as I can tell Bledso's cap hit seems to be lessened by about a million bucks and small change if he is released in the off-season after June 1. 2005. The difference is actually relatively small potatoes compared to the 4 million or so in dead space we will have either way as Bledsoe signed an extension which may well be formulated as relatively cap friendly (as starting QB money goes) but it only makes fuscal sense if he merits the starting QB job (which he doesn't based on my and many other senses). Still even if his dead space is a bad thing either way, I'd rather thave less dead space than more so even if it only provides us with a bit over a million bucks, i say hang on to him and cut him as a cap casualty before next season but after June 1st. As far as Pennington, your memory is generally correct, but theone big difference is that Pennington took over as starter for Testaverde after sitting on the bench his entire season as a rookie and learning the Jets and NFL offenses. The JP situation is not analagous to the Pennington situation as JP would be thrown in to play without a full seasons benefit of learning his craft which sitting on the sideline or even being the disaster QB affords a player the time to focus on his book learning which along with playing at NFL speeds against pro level talent are essential to becoming a good NFL QB. The particulars of the JP case are that the parts of his game I have the most confidence in are his athleticism and ability to run and his soirited leadership ability and the parts I have the least confidence in are some mechanical problems which are best worked on in practice and his understanding of the pro game which is best worked on in the classroom and upstairs in the booth at Wyche's knee. While the book work, the practice work and playing the game are all essential, given the limitation of any human being to do all three perfectly at the same time, I think he probably develops into a productive QB for the Bills better and more quickly devoting this season to watching the game and listening to Wyche rather than taking on the all consuming functions or practicing at Pro speeds and leading the team. Ironically since he seems to have rcovered fully physically from his injury, i think getting hurt and avoiding the furor up to now of fans demanding that he be played right now (simply ignoring his need to recover from injury) was probably the best thing to happen to him for his development as a contributing NFL player.

Thhe fans run him out of town? The fans have provided 11 straight sell-outs for a team which has won a maximum of 8 games since its last playoff appearance in the late 90s. Thre is certainly kvetching on this board and on sports talk shows but as long as the bottomline is what it is the attitude about press is just spell the name right.

I think by far TDs worse blunder was to hire GW as HC when clearly he was not up to the job. This move cost the Bills his 3 years as HC, and set us back beyind his time which one hopes MM will address but so far it ain't happening. In my mind the trade for Bledsoe was at worst a wash for the Bills up until the time TD made the mistake of resigning him and not going in another direction. While Rico or others may hold that the Bills got fleeced by NE in this trade I don't think this view matches the facts. In essence the Bills got a Pro Bowl reserve for nothing in Bledsoe's first year as we traded the future 1st rounder for him. Given the excitement he brought to WNY about the Bills after they registered a 3-13 record and the fanbase was bruised by the RJ/Flutie dispute, the fact of getting Bledsoe and his 2002 performance where the team improved from 3-13 to 8-8 the Bills profited tremendously from this move on and off the field. Further, the claim of NE fleecing the Bills with this trade is the fact that they sandwiched a year if completely missing the playoffs between 2 SB victories. I'm sure folks have myriad theories for what was different about the 2002 Pats from the 2001 and 2003 SB winners, but i would hold that th impacts of trading Bledsoe and the acceleration of his entire bonus onto their 2002 salary cap was a major factor in that the could neither add the 16 or so players they acquired after June 1, 2001 of their first SB team and nor could they add critical FA acquisitions such as Rodney Harrison that were a key to their 2003 season win. I think many TSW posters place too much importance on the draft as key to producing a winning team. It is important but the Pats have demonstrated with their FA acquisitions and the effect of the Bledsoe cap hit that actually FA acquisitions are the key factor in building a winner. The draft is important, but simply less important than good FA management. Even to the extent the draft is important, it is the selection of 6th rounders like Brady rather than blue-chippers like Seymour which are the key to the draft being important for the Pats. As fatr as the Bills giving up a 1st for Bledsoe, quite frankly given his output in 2002 this was a small and worthwhile price to pay even with his play going completely south the next year. You might want to argue that the PP deal was separate and the Bills would have had two 1st rounders, but the fact remains that in the big picture, the relatively small cost of giving up a 1st rounder for Bledsoe was mitigated by us finding a 2st rounder elsewhere so we had options. As I have long said, going elsewhere for a QB made a lot more sense to me than re-signing Bledsoe, but this blunder stands on its own rather than falsely interpreting what really happened. The blunder of resigning Bledsoe which will cost us a year if we cut him after June 1st 2005 so the accelerated cap hit is distributed is small compared to the 3 year plus hiring GW cost our team.

I know many folks propose that in real life the Bills can solve all their offensive woes by cutting DB, the only problem is that cutting DB is simply not going to happen in reality: 1. The resulting accelerated cap hit from absorbing all the bonus paid to Bledsoe in next years cap would certainly make 2005 a rebuilding year as our ability to sign FAs would drop to near cap hell levels. 2. For the next month or so if Bledsoe stays he plays as Losman is not even ready physically to take the field for 2-3 weeks. 3. Even after that point unless he has absorbed and learned the O and NFL Ds far faster than QBs most people would consider to be better or similar talents at QB (Vick, Pennington, Palmer) and he has worked with Wyche to eliminate any mechanical bad habits developed while running for his life at Tulane he will not even be ready to play NFL QB much less start. 4. Folks can reasonably make a case that Bledsoe is as bad a player as they want to say, but no one has yet made a credible case that Shane Matthews (who would probably still be at home on his couch if Brown and JP weren't hurt) is more than a play him if you must back-up. His career stats have been posted but even these were fairly unconvincing that he offers much as a starter (AGAIN I'D LOVE TO SEE THE PRO-MATTHEWS CASE CREDIBLY OFFERED, BUT AGAIN THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PRO-SHANE AND ANTI-DREW CASE. THE ANTI-GRE CASE IS EASY TO MAKE BUT MEANINGLESS WITHOUT THE PRO-SHANE CASE BEING MADE. At any rate, one of the obvious failings of the anti-DB case is the claim that he will never be a winner. Yes, his failings are obvious, and I was an advocate of cutting him this past off-season. But I'm not in charge, we didn't cut him and now like a country which is marooned in Iraq we broke it and have to fix it. DB did QB a team to an SB berth early in his career. DB did answer the call at QB for an injured Brady and though his stats were mediocre for the game the TEAM won a must-win game with Bledsoe at the helm. Further, if you want to go out in opinion land rather than the fact of making it to the Big Dance, in my mind Bledsoe did deserve his 2002 Pro Bowl reserve nod with his play with the Bills that season (though most of the stats have their base in his first half season performance. My question for all Bills fans (Bledsoe haters, Bledsoe lovers, and rational people) is how do you make the best of this very bad situation since Bledsie will be our QB for another month at least and will be a part of this team all season. Since Bledsoe has always been this bad even in the minds of Bledsoe haters, how do we replicate the past success he has has with Parcells, in a critical game under BB/Weis and in the 2002 season with our very own Bills even if you take it as a given that he is who he is.

It all depends upon Parcells assessment of whether Vinny Testaverde is a betteroption for him so he would have zero interest if there is a better option. However, folks seem to confuse the fact that it is very difficuklt to win with Bledsoe at QB with the concept that it is impossible to win with Bledsoe as QB. Parcells already demonstated early in Bledsoe's career and BB demonstrated later in Bledsoe's career that it is possible to make it to the Big Dance or to win a must-win game with Bledsoe at QB if you have: 1. Outstanding coaching 2. Outstanding shared leadership of the team 3. An offensive scheme which uses Bledsoe's talents as a change-up and does not depend upon him to carry the team himself as talents like Montana or Elway did. MM is young, but no one mistakes him for Parcells yet. The Bills have good potential internal leaders but have not gelled yet at all in terms of internal leadership and you can see this lack of internally forced discipline in their play. Finally, Drew has some uniqu talents but no one should mistake his brain for Montana's or his wheels for Elway. As Dan Marino demonstrated a gereat arm does not an SB winner make.

Certaily the conventional wisdom among many on this board is that TD's drafts have obviously sucked. However, it seems to me that his view is mostly colored and based on folks correctly hating the W/L results produced under TD. However, though I certainly agree that TD's record and team bulding suck, his drafts don't strike me as out of the norm for success of most NFL GMs and the only thing I have heard that even purports to be based on some allegedly objective numeric computation is that TD's record if it is measured by players who stuck with the team is far better than most. I'm a big enough stat hound to know that they often are a better measure of truth than our wholely biased opinions, but as my college thesis was entitled Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics I know that stats are fully mallable in many hands and that though they can be a good indicator they don't prove amything. That being said, I would love to see something more than folks often fact-free opinioms about TD's dtraft sucking. Anything out there to buttress our opinions. In my view, TDs draft history is: 2001- Excellent draft particularly when you factor in this was a team in full cap hell. His top picks like Clements, Schobel and Henry have gotten some outside objective demonstrations of some good work (Schobel was rewarded with a big contract and is one of the few Bills on a productivity roll right now, Henry did make the Pro Bowl and before us fickle fans turned on him this year he was renowned by many as a favorite Bill after two straight 1200 yard seasos and his picture even replacing Drew's om Two Bills Drive, Clements gets his share of whines on the Wall, but though he clearly ain't as good as he thinks he is he is seen as a playmaker on the Bills winning the punt return job and being credited with a number of D TDs in his career. 2002- By far TDs worse dradft as all the top picks have disappointed in some big way. This buch showed some early prpductivity but their careers have generally fone south in a big way. Nevertheless a majority of these picks are still with the team and for the most part hold down starting roles. Even though trends are clear for these players in their third year, due to some early production it is probably still too early to give u completely on these players especially where no credible aslternative is suggested folks merely whine. 2003- Too early to asess these players and evem the trendlines are a bit cloudy with only a data point and a little less than a third assess these players. As far as where their careers stand right now, if WM continues at his current pace of recovery getting a #3 talent with picck 20 something will easily be an historic picck not simply for the Bills but in the NFL. T. McGee also shows signs of greatness. With both the Kelsay and Aiken picks moving up the depth chart it is too early to accurately assess but if WM works outt this season this draft will ne viewed as a success. 2004- Way to early to judge. At amy rate, I think that an assessment of it being true that BOTH TD sucks at team-building and has at least been at the norm or better of NFL draft managers may actually the facts of the case. I think this contradiction may actually be explained by my growing sense that in the era of the salary cap the draft is a valuable tool, but is simply a tool and not the key to building a winning team. I know the conventional wisdom is that you build through the draft, but if this view is true it certainly runs counter to the experience of the current class of the league the Patriots. This was a team that acquired a third of its players in their first SB year after June 1st from cap casualties. Probably the best case they have to make about the import of the draft to them was a 6th round draft pick whome they were willing to give every other team in the league 6 or more shots at taking him they valued him so highly. This is a team (or should I say (TEAM) built around free agency with the draft playing an important but sudsidiary role. I'd love to see some analysis of this as I think the CW that TD is a horrendous drafter is unsupported by anything but opinion and also that to much importance id placed on the draft by fans,

I have a few quibbles with particular points, but overall I think this is a pretty fair assessment of how TD has dealt with the particulars of managing the Bills as a sports team. All together these assessment of these individual moves pales against the bottomline that the Bills have a huge losing record during his tenure while other teams in the same position as when he came aboard (Carolina for example) have done much better. However, despite my willingness to fault TD for the bottomline of his results working the sport, I do recognize that this is quite a different question than the one of how does Ralph judge TD\s tptal work as GM. TD's results have roundly sucked in terms of managing the sport, but as best as I can tell the results are pretty good in managing the Bills as a business. Ultimately it is probably the business bottom line which will detemine whether TD is fired or extended. Like it or not, I and other fans have sold out 11 straight Bills games despite the horrible record produced under TDs tenure and I would not be surprised if Ralph extends his contract because of this. The key thing will be Ralph's personal relationship with TD and if TD has done a good job of sucking up to Ralph, the Bills miserable onfield performance may well not result in his getting canned/ We'll see.

Trades also result in an immediate accelerated cap hit of all the bonus paid out (this is why the trade of Bledsoe to the Bills was so devastating to NE and probably cost them even making the playoffs between their two SB victories. I'm not sure what Rico means with his 2004 date as Bledsoe must be cut after June 1, 2005 in order to spread his remaining cap hit over 2006 and 2006. If he were cut right now (or anytime beofre June of 2004)then the entire remaining bonus would be assigned to next years cap and reduce greatly our ability to sign FAs.

I know a lot of fans want to see him gone yesterday, but if you support JP Losman as the QB of the future and the Bills prospects for 2005 then cutting Bledsoe now would be a bad idea. By waiting until after June 1, 2005 Bledsoe becomes a cap casualty whose salary bonus is allocated over 3 seasons rather than 2. Even with a cut then (as I think the deal for him was a four year contract) we still have some significant but doable dead space for the 2006 season. However, if you cut him now, then that entire load plus is allocated to next season and just as the accelerated cap hit that the Pats suffered in the 2002 season was probably part of why they missed the playoffs both before and after SB wins, so to would an immediate cutof Bledsoe set this team back and guarantee that next year is a rebuilding year. We will have Bledoe to kick around for quite a while yet though much if it will see him warming the bench and haging out in Montana next off-season.

As seen in the post just after yours 11/21 is too long for some fans and they advocate strongly starting him next week against AZ. The real answer to me is that the Bills braintrust should ignore us fans and start him when he is physically and mentally ready. 11/21 sounds like the earliest he will be physically ready and it would be easy for me to see just as you might reasonably reject a suggestion to start him next week, that your suggestion to start him 11/21 might be reasonably rejected as well if the Bills braintrust does not feel he has made enough progress in understanding the Bills O amd NFL Os . In any case Bledsoe should not be cut until after June 1, 2005 when the cap hit from resigning him can be allocated and absorbed without hurting Losman's team. I think you and all of us may have Bledsoe to kick around for a while.

I like Howard Simon's estimation that the earliest you would see Losman start is November 21st against St. Louis. The indicators Howard apparently sees is that it is at least 2-3 weeks before he has recoved enough from the fractured leg to practice with the team and play. Further, it would be nuts to send him into Foxboro against BB in his first game so he sees his earliest start being at home against an offensive minded St. Louis team. This strikes me as possible but even that remotely so as Losman is the disaster QB right now and there is certainly no guarantee that he even bests out Matthews for the back-up job right now. I think he is better than Matthews and will oass him like he is standing still on the depth chart but next year is more likely than this year for a rookie who has yet to play a real game against an NFL D and had some mechanical issues in college as he habitually was running for his life. The irony here is that the injury may have been the best thing for his development if he used his time wisely. If he sat upstairs during games and watched NFL Os and Ds unfold with Sam Wyche predicting and explaining things to him, he may be more ready to go. Certainly than he would have been carrying the clipboard and paling around on the sidelines with players during games. We havwe seen what can happen when you rush a QB in to play before he can handle it with the development of Todd Collins as the Bills drafted a replacement for Kelly a year later than they should and when his concussion against Jax knocked him out of football, we were forced to play him before his happy feet and other problems were trained out of him. It would be great if JP wer our savior, but last I heard as good as I think and hope he is he does not walk on water. Even worse the idea that he must play to learn is true but the idea also that he must learn before he plays seems to apply even more in his case.

I don't think anyone is arguing that it can't be done that a rookie QB can come in and win. To do so would fly in the face of the reality of Big Ben (or RoboQB as I like to call him) or that he could not learn from playing even if he didn't win and his rookie W/L simply sucked like Peyton Manning. I think the arguments are that no one is mistaking the rookie JP for the rookie Peyton Manning in terms of talent. In addition, as many thought that the skill set shown by RoboQB as a collegian actually equalled that of Eli Manning and Philip Rivers while it would have shocked no one if JP lasted into the early second round, no one is even mistaking JP for Big Ben. Contributing rookie QBs are the exception rather than the rule. In fact their contributing is such an exception that there are far more examples of rookie QBs who seemed to profit alot in their development by sitting and learning the Pro game as rookies and then contributing tons and making the playoffs as second year QBs (definitely more talented players like Vick, probably more talented like Brady and similar regarded talents like Pennington). I would be overjoyed to see JP step in and contribute immediately and even lead the team to an SB miracle this year. However, i would bet several ranches and several dogs this won't happen. In real life looking at JPs skill set and history, he simply will need a lot of learning and work (like all NFL rookies) before I would guess he will be a credible NFL QB. Among these pieces are: 1, Play at pro speed and against pro talent which simply cannot be replicated in college. 2. Do a bunch of playbook learning to get the Bills offense aand NFL offenses down. 3, Work on his mechanics so he can develop the consistency and SOP that are a part of running the oversystematized NFL offenses of today successfully. Hewas running for his life consistently and made a bunch of great throws from rediculous positions in order to make plays in college. However, this ain't the college game against college level talent for him anymore. If JP throws off the wrong foot and with bad balance as he did in college pro defenders will eat him alive. Bills receivers seem to have problems being where supposed to be on plays everybody is running and if they consistently need to wait or alter their routes because JP is busy freelancing passes will not be completed. 4. See a bunch of defenses so he can diagnose what opponents are doing and choose and implement a response that burns them. 5. Be a leader of his team. Of these items, I like what JP has show on item one, but there are serious questions regarding his game on items 2 and 3 and a question for all rookies on item 4. I like the spirit he has shown which gives me great hope for him on item 5.Playing time and playing QB will actually help him most with item 1 and is the only thing that will give this to him. However, its the least of my worries about him. I think he learns the most about item 2 by becoming Sam Wyches best fried. i think he gets item 3 down by spending repetivie time on the practice field. I think that nothing replaces seeing Ds up close and personal on the field, but the lionshare of learning here for him is probably best done by watcing tape and sitting in the booth with Wyche. I think developing a habit of losing and struggling with a Bills O over the last ten games has equal potential to undercut his leadership ability and in fact presents more of a chance of this happening if he isn't ready mentally as is doubtful rather than assertive out there or even worse confident but consistently wrong. I say tell us fans to go jump if we demand JP play and MM/Clements/Wyche judge him not to be ready yet in terms of his injury or for developing a Pro brain.

I think this is the million dollar question and no one knows for sure, but the answer to me seems to be almost certainly not. The main argument for doing this seems to be that cannot be worse than Bledsoe. True but so what as this is different than the question of whether bringing in this rookie will be good for the Bills. I think benching Bledsoe and starting Losman would no doub be good for the soap-opera fans who hate Bledsoe because he simply has played poorly. However, I really really alot really alot doubt that playing him would be good for the Bills or his development as a player who will help the Bills as our QB of the future. 1. There was good news that JP suited up for the first time in a while this week and practiced as our disaster QB last week. However, from all I hear he is still at least a couple of weeks away from really subjecting his fracture to the possibility of real hits (even from Troy Vincent not to mention real opponents). He is in good enough shape to man the #3 spot as disaster QB in our depth chart but will need to show some good stuff before he even challenges Mathews for the #2 spot. He was physically ready to put on a uniform but not to play yesterday. If Bledsoe and Matthews had both gone down, I would not have been surprised to see serious thought given to playing Eric Moulds at QB rather than JP and if JP played it would have been with play calls designed to protect him rather than to win. 2. Like any rookie, JP needs lots of things before he is a credible NFL QB (feel free to argue which particulars you feel make JP a credible NFL QB AND NOT simply that Bledsoe is not, we already know that). Playing at NFL speed in game situations is one of those things. However, all the indicators which I see indicate to me that he needs to learn the Bills and NFL offenses a lot more than he needs what he will get from game experience. Further, there are some bad mechanics he has which were exacerbated running for his life in Tulane which need to be worked out of him as a Pro. JP needs to give some indication to me that his mental health is sound as well as his physical health is sound before I feel good about entrusting the team to him or turning to the playing at NFL speed part of his education rather than demanding he focus his limited (he is human afterall) amount of attention on the book learning and mechanics of being a credible NFL QB. 3. My sense is that at 1-5 with a few conference losses that the Bills should play to win until they are mathematically eliminated, but that it is clear that development for the future means more for them getting some Ws when it matters nextyear rather than racking up some Ws now that don't matter. Thus, I am far more interested in the Bills taking strong steps to develop JP and the rest of the team to get Ws in the future that I am reluctant to risk that merely to get meaningless Ws this year. I think the QB position is different because as we have seen with the Bills development of Todd Collins, throwing a QB in before he is ready can have negative effects which neither produce immediate gains or much in terms of development. I'd love it if anyone has seen any tangible evidence of JP working on and mastering the parts of his game which were not there when he was drafted did folks see him following Wyche around or sitting in the booth with him at games? Are their reports of JP taking home and watching tons of videotape, is the word from practice last week of JP showing a true command of knowing the offense and NFL tendencies and not simply testimony that he looked like a stud. Folks do want to advocate starting JP saying that Bledsoe sucks. So what, tell me something that we all don't know. There needs to be clearer evidence of JP mastering the mental side of the game and solving his past mechanical problems before advicating that he start makes much sense for hm leadingthe Bills to put up a lot of Ws as our QB of the future. Throwing him in now may make Ws more likely this year (even this is not guranteed and having him put up Ls may be negatve for his development) but even if it does so what as it will not make much of a difference for the team's outcomes in the big picture. Ws now are great. but his development as our QB of the future is the real picture.

JPs health as a QB involves two things. His physical health in that he does not and should not play until he is physically ready (which seems to be 2 weeks away at best) and also mentally as he had flaws in his understanding of Pro offenses which all rookies have an additional problems with his mechanics (he sometimes throws off the wrong foot to assure his balance and freelances to make plays rather do it with consistency the same way virtually everytime. These habits were reinforced in him in college because he played behind a bad OL and had to run for his life. However, in the oversystematized world of the Pros playing the same way he played in college is unlikely to be productive. Perhaps his mental health has been actually aided by his enforced absence if he used the fact he had to devote no time to being ready to play and lead to instead devoting all his time to get a download in the pressbox from Wyche. If Losman was physically and mentally ready to go I think he would easily be commanding time in practice and with a 1-5 record he would be knocking on the door to start and this tide would not be resisted, As it stands he certainly is not physically ready right now and even if he was I doubt he would be much more than our disaster QB in terms of the mental aspects ofthe game.

Exactly right in my book!

I disagree with some of these points:

Just a correction. MacNally was on record before he was hired and several times afterward that he should not be viewed as a miracle worker (his words) or some sort of savior. Still, its the nature of entertainment today that some fans still insisted incorrectly on viewing JMac, JP, , TD, Bledsoe or MM as some sort of savior. I agree with you that looking for someone to be a savior is simply not going to happen. Its silly for folks to do this. It's the easiest thing in the world to simply identify flaws and mistakes in a player, coaches or personel person's game because no matter how successful an individual is they are human and have them. It really gets illy to take a team as flawed as the Bills record is and to simply point out these failings and then to claim that the player, coach or personnel guy is a total idiot who can do nothing right. TSW is at its best when folks do some credible analysis and point how not simply the flaws but suggest how to improve and win with the reality of what we got.

He's the disaster QB on the depth charts as our #3 QB. You're more likely to see Shane Matthews start and incredibly unlikely to see him.

I advocated that the Bills cut their losses with Bledsoe and release him this past off-season, but since I'm not in charge they didn\t dp this and resigned him to a cap friendly deal 9if they release him after June 1, 2005 so the cap hit is distributed over three years rather than us taking an immediate hit. This to me means getting Drew out of town this season or before next June is a bad idea which will wreck next season in addition to this one. In fact, I think you play him this year until we judge our QB of the future Losman physically and mentally ready to play. Rushing him along on either point since simply getting better QB play today at the cost of putting him on the Todd Collins development track would be bad for the Bills. Perhaps one wants to play Matthews instead of Bledsoe (it would be tough to worse than today at QB) but I see nothing to indicate that Matthews would be any better. Starting with Bledsoe as the key to fixing this team simply seems ineffective to me.