Fake-Fat Sunny

I guess the good comparison to do is with the Pats and look at how they built themselves sice they clearly have a winning product and compare that to the Bills and how they have built themselves. I will bow and sing the praises of any others who do this work and perhaps one day I will get to it as well. Off hand, i would say that for the first Pats SB winner free agency acquisitions and specifically cap casualties were the key to building the team which won the SB for the 2001 season. My recollection is that they picked up about 1/3 of their team after June 1st by getting no names like Antowain Smith and through hard work and dumb luck they became a TEAM. Its interesting because I have seen the old saw repeated on TSW that "like the Pats" we must build through the draft" but this view appears to be conventional wisdom which has some but is false as saying it was central as draft picks like first rounder Seymour played important roles but were sidelights to their real story. To the extent the draft was actually important to this team it was the low priority unplanned contributions of 6th round pick Tom Brady rather than their higher profile 1st day picks. The draft seemed to play a bigger role in the 2003 SB winning team as picks like Bethel Johnson played a key role, but still it would be interesting to see a fuller look at this team as the big acqusitions from my view were FAs like Rodney Harrison. I think that as the Bills retool and TD goes along his path the Bills are not focusing building through the draft, but that is probably OK as few winners do in the modern NFL.

So much for moving him to LG.

People are hyped because in modern American society (and thus in the NFL which happens to be a small minuscule part of American society unless you take betting into acciount and then its huge) THE FUTURE IS NOW. What have you done for me lately is the slogan of importance. Historic data is important but only to the extent it impacts my fantasy league team niw. Trends are important but pale in significance to the next game. There is some logic to all of this as worst to first has become posssible in the National Football Lotto like never before. Its a real truism that teams tend to do better when they take it one game at a time (in other sports for example the Red Sox were done when they were down 0-3 to the Yankees, but by totally defying the trends they are WS Champions today). Why are folks so hyped about Willis regardless of the true facts you recite: 1. Great story- The bou had it all as he romped through the record book with UM andin the blink of an eye and a vicious hit it all seemed to be gone, but. 2. He worked hard- He and his team of reps like the obnoxious Rosenhaus miraculously were able to build his young strong shattered body into shape to do a showcase workout just prior to the draft. 3. TD and the big boys took a risk- Ironically, the showcase workout meant little to the Bills whose Docs made the correct diagnosis that he had many tears but they were all pretty clean and with diligence and slow steady work they could be repaired. Most important they had a 14oo yard RB in the fold so they could take their time with his recovery. 4. In a rarity for America where dumb luck and Ken Lay nastiness often seem to pay off, this all worked out to deliver a good outcome. Perhaps the more real question is not why are people so hyped (it seems fairly obvious), it's why are our attention spans so short that we will be totally hyped about something else tomorrow. I think it was Hollywood Henderson (or maybe it was Duane Thomas) who asked about the SB? If it is so important than why do they play it over again every year?

I wonder if there is a stat somewhere of the breakdown of how a team acquired its current players (x % draft, x % UDFA, x % trade, etc.). Love to see it for the Bills if anyone has it or for the league as a whole.

I still argue trading for Bledsoe was not a mistake, particularly when you factor in the business side of the GMs job, and even on the field it was a wash. TD has made mistakes with Bledsoe's career as a Bill but resigning him instead of saying Aloha this oast off-season is the I'd fault him for (though it ain't over til it's over and though I doubt it will happen I will be overjoyed to eat crow if Bledsoe leads us to victory this Sunday in NE and parleys that win into some totally bizarre roll to a playoff berth which is what needs to happen to make the Bledsoe resigning a worthwhile move). Look, after the 2991 season, the Bills and TD were still dealing with the hand that Butler dealt them. Flutie was a far better QB than RJ and TD was right when he said so in his previous to being a Bils GM incarnation as a media pundit, However, as a GM TD had no reasonable choice but to cut DF and give RJ an exerperimental year in what was going to be a rebuilding year anyway. At any rate we finished 3-13 as RJ and his body flunked the experiment and it was time to cut him. TDs real world choices at QB as the 2002 season approached were the likes of Jeff Blake and Chris Chandler on the waiver wire, However, BB had to move one of his QBs after Brady stepped up and Bledsoe gracefully stepped aside after winning a must win game for the Pats because everyone could see Brady was the answer for the Pats at QB. TD pulled off an unexpected deal with BB when he acquired Bledsoe on the second day of the draft that year for our first rounder the next year. BB was willing to make this move becauseL 1. He was desperate and one of these two QBs had to oo. If Bb didn't trade him he ould likely had to have cut him. The Bills offer was a gift for him in that he got a 1st rounder though unfortunately it was not the 2 2002 1st rounders he asked for (you always ask for more than you expect to get, maybe your trade partner turns out to be Arthur Blank with AT, Mike Lynn with MN or some other fool) and actually was not a first rounder until 2003. 2. BB hoped correctly that he would chalk up 3 wins against the Bills because he knew Cledsoe's weaknwesses as well as anybody. However, this is what TD got: 1. Instead of going into the 2002 season with AVP, Jeff Blake or Chris Chandler at the QB spot, he went in with a QB who was not be mistaken for a fleet-footrf boy, but on the field it cannot be denied he threw the ball to Moulds for 100 receptions, threw the ball to PP for 94 receptions. transferred in or audubled his way to handing off to Henry for 1200 plus yards and dealt the ball to other receivers so that he merited his Pro Bowl reserve nod in 2002. 2. Not only did he make a huge upgrade at QB moving from RJ/AVP to Bledsoe but it cost the Bills zero, nada, bupkus, nothing in 2002 as the price was for the future consideration of the 2003 #1. 3, If anyone got raped in 2002 it was BB. He was correct that he could chalk up 2 wins for the Pats as he demolished Bledsoe, but these wins were in the context of the Bills improving from 3-13 to 8-8 the second biggest improvement in league history. Meawhike the effects of the necessary trade of Bledsoe came home to roost in the accelerated cap hit of all the remaining Bledsoe bonus to the 2002 salary cap of the Pats. Did trading Bledsoe and absorbing the accelerated hit cause the Pats to miss the playoffs entirely in 2002. Who knows for sure However, i think there is a pretty good case to be made for pointing to this factor. The Pats surprising SB win in the 2001 season was built around acquiring about a third of the team after the cap casualty June 1 deadline. Between resigning players who signed for a year, honoring the second year of contracts for players who produced and dealing with the usual raises wanted by players in a position to ask for them after an SB win, the unplanned for acceleration of the entire remaining Bledsoe bonus hamstrung the Pats that year. They obviously signed up a full team but with the Bledsoe limitation that were unable to spend that extra $250 to $500 K per player to get the better back-up or potential budding star they wanted. The temporary talent drain on the Pats was clear as they bookended wins of the SB last season abs 2 seasons before that around the accelerated Bledsoe cap hit. These factors coinciding does not prove anything in court, but in the logical brain this looks like a pretty good explanation, There would be no question about TD and the Bills profitting greatly from the Bledsoe deal except in my analysis Kevin Killdrive fell in love with Bledsoe's still extraordinary arm and ran a totaly predictable offense which depended too much on him in 2003. Bledsoe did not produce and the results simply sucked. Soes this mean that it is impoesible to win with Bledsoe? No not at all impossible, it is just very very difficult unless you have a smart disciplined HC who will pull off the the just throw the ball discipline of a Bill Parcells when Bledsoe QB'ed his team to an SB berth or he designs a powered down offense which used Bledsoe as a change-up rather than depending upon him to win the game which he (or Trent Dilfer or whatshisname the two time loser QB with TB) he is not going to do, Though I think a Bills team is far more likely to win it all with someone with a skill set other than Bledsoe's at the helm, I STILL think he can win in this league with just the right disciplined HC leading the team and the right teammates around him. If the Bills has let Bledsoe go after last season and thus absorbed no cap hit as NE already did that for this contract, I think that the total deal was at worst a wash for the Bills and actually because TD also raped Arthur Blank to get his first round choice back I think the Bills were ahead on this deal until they chose to resign Bledsoe. At least they did this in the only reasonable way it could be done as the deal was cap friendly, but still I disagree with those who claim this deal was a bad one for the Bills because certainly for 2002 it was a great one for us which only was balanced ou by Killdrive's piss poor management of Bledsoe's weaknwesses and strengths last year.

You\re right we will never know, but probably about in the same place based on my guess at the talent level of the individuals involved and trying to factor in some senses that with the OL more than most other units chemistry is a key to the whole performing at a level greater than the sum of the individual players. Overall I think Ruben is a plus player and adds a lot to a team and a town he lives in. Certainly while his talent level is very good he did not seem to merit msking the Pro Bowl every year he has played based on what I saw from him on the field. A couple or three of his earlier years he seemed to be a player who dominated opponents and one could see on the field the plaudits he got. However, many other years I was surprised by his Pro Bowl nods because of problems such somr bizarre false start calls he deserved, a few games lost to injries in a couple of seasons, and him getting beaten by a better opponent a bit too often. However, I can easily see signs of him being a real locker room, team and community leader that we outsiders may not ever see that explains (along with a lack of consistent good guard play in the NFL) which justifies in my mind him getting Pro Bowl recognition in several years we didn't perceive he deserved it. In fact, I think Ruben's besty year as a player was in the 2002 season where his play included some onfield mistakes which I thought would deny him the Pro Bowl. However, though the OL clearly had some trouble providing good pass protection for the less than nimble Bledsoe, the OL had a surprisingly productive year in Travis Henry;s breakout year where he rode his 1200 plus yards to a Pro Bowl reserve nod and despite the pass pro problems, the passing game allowed Moulds to hit the century mark for receptions, PP racked up 94 and a far bigger contract than his play deserved and even Bledsoe merited his Pro Bowl reserve nod in my book. Ruben almost certainly deserves part of the credit for the OL performance that year as he was the only one of the 5 who had started or had much experience at his line position (Jennings was new to Lt, Teague was new to C and did't want to do it, Sullivan was new at the RG position and MW was a rookie). I think hi leadership of this unit is part of the success they had. Still despite this, Ruben needed to go because even though he was correct in what he did, he challenged his boss Kevin Killdrive over Gilbriide running the Bills O stupidly and being virtual George Bushesque in his unwillingness to admit any errors or make any changes to his failing policy (oh well at least there was some accountability in Killdrive's case). At any rate, I thought Ruben actually showed loyalty to his teammates (both Henry and Winfield mouthed off a bit and Gilbride challenged them) because he stuck up for what was right in challenging Gilbride on some of his comments. I wasn't there and only heard thibngs second and third hand, but the problem was that RB was repetitive about this defense and not very tactful (seeminly because his wife's troubled pregnancy had him under a lot pressure. He did succeed in killing the king (Killdrive) and outlasted GW, Ruel and Vinky as well (I doubt these two deserve much credit for the positive things which did occur on the OL as both were fired after their seasons). However, because he was right and had not been tactful he had to go. This was true even though the Bills saved no cap room by cutting him as any salary savings was offset by the accelerated bonus hit. As far as replacing him, Villareal seems like a comparable choice. Both are on the downhill sides of their careers but this means they are seasoned vets. Rube brought this to the team and Villareal replaced it. The other upside to the Villareal replacement is that he plays RG to RBs LG and after learning the game from the since cut Sullivan at RG and having to take responsibility for Pacillo when he had no veteran chops himself MW is profiting from getting strong guidance from Villareal beside him as he struggles to learn how to be a professional. Villareal though does have the downside that he is new to the Bills system and he did not provide the same level of productive leadership to this unit as Ruben might have. All in all it strikes me as a wash, but I'm not surprised at all to hear Ruben is now doing well. With charity efforts like his annual motorcycle rally fundraiser and volunteer efforts for transplantation and with the leadership which got him a TV gig on Channel 2 Ruben is a stand-up guy.

Definitely WMs performance makes or breaks the assessment of this draft for TD. As with most drafts it is still too early to truly assess whether these youngsters contributed to the teams which picked them in the good manner. However, there are a few positive things which can be said about the Bills and TDs work in terms of their 2003 1st round pick: 1. All picks are risks, but thanks to some good assessment by the Bills medical staff and appropriate trust in their judgment by the draft brain trust they made the call which allowed them to pick up a likely top talent with the #23 pick. The medical staff looked at the X-rays and poked and prodded WM and made the judgement that his multiple tear injury was devastating but could be rehabbed to something approximating its former level if the team was patient. It is interesting that Larry Johnson is the only other RB on your list so perhaps the kudos to TD are for reading the market wonderfully in seeing that this talent we were ready to take a risk on would be there (he clearly read the market correctly regarding Kelsay as most would have judged this a reasonable first round pick). However, even if something unfortunate happens with a bad hit at the wrong time, WM piling up 37 carries and 132 yards on Sunday means TD deserves kudos for taking a risk which others judged shouldn't be taken. The bonus is that we not only got a top 5 with 23 but have been able to pay him as a #23. 2. Kudos to the Bills for ignoring the fans rehab schedule, Many on this board were ready to play WM on crutches (the same folks are now advocating playing JP on crutches) and wanted to rush him along, trade him based on their fears or trade Henry based on their hopes. The Bills have done exactly the right thing in terms of WMs rehab and as best as I can tell having two starting RBs on the roster. One can attempt to make the case that WMs performance is actually proof they could have brought him along sooner. Maybe, but looking at WMs performance where from my view he clearly has an extra gear now that he did not have until the 5th game or so this season I don't think he was ready to go any earlier. Even more exciting for me as a Bills fan is that looking at his slowly increasing yards per carry I think that his rehab is not yet complete and that we may very well see another gear from WM. 3. There is a lot more to the plusses of this assessment than a judgement on WMs play. Actually if you want to assess how the Bills handled THEIR 2003 #1 pick it actually was the one traded for Bledsoe. It strikes me as a more rational assesment to really assess how their first pick did so looking at the WM situation is fine. I for one feel good about the decision they made to trade away the future draft pick to get a replcement for RJ given that the replacement acquired merited his Pro Bowl reserve nod that year as he led the team from 3-13 to 8-8. Further in terms of present value at the time it was really a something for nothing trade as the 2003 pick was not going to contribute anything to the 2002 team and Bledsoe did big time. If anyone got raped in this deal it was Belicheck who because of the luck of the draw had the situation where he had to trade one of his QBs (as Marv said if you have two starting QBs you have no starting QB) and the logical to let go caused NE to take a salary cap hit which almost certainly played a significant role in costing them even a trip to the playoffs sandwiched between 2 SB wins. In the end, this deal was a wash in my view because Bledsoe's play stunk so bad once opponents got enough tape on him running the predictable once it was seen Kevin Killdrive offense and BB gave the league a template on hgow to neutralize Bledsoe in that scheme. All in all I think all of this balances out as in exchange for getting a top five draft talent with pick #23, the Bills had to eat a year of WM rehab with no production which balances off the free Bledsoe year. Still all in all I'd say good work by the Bills and TD have brought the team into the position where the scales are balanced and now WMs contributions are simply payoff on getting him.

Cliff notes begin{ I like how YD has used the 1st round in the draft to get value this team needs at affordable prices. Its too bad though that he has added a poor HC choice and reinvestment in Bledsoe onto this draft work i jind to be good. Cliff notes end. I start this as a separate thread than the one about how the Bills can get a #1 because though it is obviously related to what we specifically do, its the broader team building philosophy point that I'm interested in getting info on. I was actually surprised that in the thread about specific Bill draft choices and options no one included TDs direct quote from a couple of days ago about building a team through the draft. In response to a question about how he was going to get a 1st round pick for the team next year he said: There may be nothing more overrated than the first round draft picks. Statistically, about 50 percent of them fail and do not always live up to sometimes unrealistic expectations. You always try to do what is best for your team when it comes to personnel decisions. That is generally the bottom line in what you use as a guideline when making personnel decisions or determining what to do with the draft picks. Based on this quote I think the likely answer to the question about what we do is not go out of our way for a 2005 #1 draft pick (though I'm happy to be lied to by TD in order to fool our opponents) but the interesting thins to me is that this lays out a team building philosophy which I tend to agree with in the cap era. I think many posters on TSW symply overvalue the draft. Good players have to come from somewhere so there are tons of examples of good players who were drafted early, but its also is quite likely (and I would not even be shocked if they are almost equally likely when it comes to measures such as Pro bowl appearances, SB MVPs and big second contracts) that there is great value to be found in late draft picks like Tom Brady, UDFAs like Kurt Warner and Jake Delhomme and mutliple time rejects or cap casualties like Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer. Sprinkle in examples like Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Andre Ware etc. and the only real certainty about a 1st round pick is that he is going to be highly paid. TD has been roundly lambasted on TSW for being a lousy drafter, but by his own stated standards for a 1st round pick and its my sense too he actually has done well for 1st round picks and likewise looking deeper in his drafts. 2001- Success- Clements is our #1 CB who made the team comfortable not paying the big bucks to Winfield. Like all CBs he makes some errors (not knocking down a ball in the Jax game is the notable one). However, overall though he not yet drawn a Pro Bowl nod he has scored a few TDs off INTs in his career and is enough of a playmaker that he forced his way into the PR job. TD actually traded down to get him and still got the first CB pick that year so this pick was a winner in my book. 2002- Disappointment- I think it is clear and seems reasonable that folks have been disappointed in the production of this player picked 4th in the draft. Hpwever, his unprofessional reaction to a horrible thing when a family member died does not make him a bust yet because: 1. Unfortunate injury aside he looks great the last few weeks. 2. He has not really gotten professional level OL coaching from the Bills yet under Vinky and Ruel and his recent improvement and rebound from this summers failures are looking like good JMac work though it is still too early to tell. 3. He ws a clear need pick by the Bills and given how folks passed over to get him have done (such as Jerry Sullivan and others hyperventilating over McKinnie only to see him perform like he did on Monday night) he was certainly a reasonable pick at the time. 2003- Unconventional success- Here we begin to see more conclusive evidence of the low value which TD places on a first round choice. He traded it away for Bledsoe (a good move at the time in my book and on the field Bledse's first year until his play went south). TG seems to put a high value on in essence getting something for nothing by tading away next year's 1st. I ronically he got it back with a great GM maneuver on PP but used the acquired pick to speculate and it really looks like that speculation will pay off. When you toss in that in the final analysi, the 2003 first round choice became one Pro Bowl year and one garbage year out of Drew AND a speculative deal leading to a sweetheart contract for the Bills for the payoff we are getting, I think that his work with this draft pick was a success. 2004- Too early to tell on Evans but so far so good. 2005- We already got Losman with this pick and even without his injury (and by necessity with it) he needed to sit and learn much of if not all of his first year anyway. Particularly when you add in that there appear to be no or few outstanding QBs coming out of college this year, TDs habndling of the draft in this case (also as our 2nd draft pick this year TD got this/his speculative man for a good price). At any rate, by his own standards TD feels that if he is average in the NFL when the smoke clears on the 4 first round choices he has made that have played for the Bills 2 would likely end up being considered disappointments. However, in terms of looking at an assessing these four choices, 1 had really paid off (Clements), 1 looks like he will payoff big time (WM), one has disappointed though the current returns indicate a reasonable potential for a turnaround (MW) and too early to tell but so far so good on the early returns on Evans. When you add on to that TD's handling of the 2005 draft pick in terms of reading the Bills QB development needs and the 2005 QB market this move looks good even with the injury. At any rate I trek though this Bills stuff as an example of how the philosophy of the 1st round pick is a risky prospect at best. I think that TD has shown an outside of the box level of thinking and implementation regarding 1st round picks and though he has not been able to overcome a poor choice by him pf GW I think his draft philosophy makes sense. What I;d really love to see if someone has a link to an article which has done the work or if someone out there has done the work is wether the numbers and credible opinions bear out TDs statement that 50% of 1st round picks are disppointments.

You're right medication made this a sleepless night for me and it made me forget to go to the Cliffnotes for a long diatribe. Cliffnotes begin: Hi Cliffnotes end

The proposal of moving MW to LG which started a few weeks ago (seeingly based on a passing attitude adjustment threat by JMac) is looking sillier and sillier. 1. The concept of MW being too slow for the position always struck me as a miswatching of the situation as MW seemed to show bigger mental problems in his work as he was called upon as a second year player to carry along first year player Pacillo. 2. His problem seemed to be the less than professional way he dealt with the human loss of a death in his family rather than a physical issue beyond the weight gain he put on skipping the voluntary practices this off-season. In fact after JMac and others sent him a message he was a bit too hardcore in trying to peel the pounds and suffered a setback early to overtraining trying to lose weight. 3. Complaints about his lack of agility as a big man making him vulnerable to speed rushes also seemed counter to reality to me as the Bills sack weakness was actually up the gut as he miscoordinated with Pacillo and Teague would occaisionally get bowled over when he had difficulty mult-tasking doing line call adjustments, makibng an accurate snap and also getting the proper leverage for lighter man to be effective against the growing bulkier DTs. Like all OL players he got beat on occaision but his outside agility was not his major issue or a consistent problem last year, not this year as 3of 8 games so far were actually sack free even with fleet footed Bledsoe. 4. Even MW's bad penalty in the Ravens game which backed us up 5 on second and goal was MW's first penalty of the season. 5. The only real rationale for moving MW to LG which made sense was not MWs play but actually to find a started at LG who was not a UDFA on the Ravens practice squad last year. The move MW to LG proposal created openings at RT, and back-up tackle if you moved Price to fil the RT slot, Such a move is particularly serious business since Jennings has had such an injury plague career (and now it is MW who gets dinged. Rather than moving Teague to fill a hole at tackle whe he healed to keep Tucker at C, it makes far more sense to play Tucker at LG and move Smith to a back-up slot more appropriate to him and still a big move in terms of improvement. There's still much to do an improve with the OL chemistry and work. I think the Jumbo Package may well have a relatively short shelf life as it is already hitting the wall as its success has given tape on the few redzone plays Bannan can run and it was a mismatch between the play call and the personnel which cost the Bills a shot at 4 point just before the end of the first half Sunday (when the Jumbo Package failed to lead the rusher into the endzone for the first time Sunday it turned out to be a mismatch of personnel and the second play called in the hurry-up huddle). In terms of limited redzone practice time, I'd rather they devote it to working to make Tucker a full time LG after a great performance in the bulk of the game Sunday rather than forcefeeding more plays to Bannan to keep some necessay surprise in the Jumbo or the even worse idea of trying to turn him into an offensive player this year. I like where we are with the OL.

I remember being one of those who said that the idea of moving Bannan to the offense this year was a bad idea so I'm not sure if I am one of those you considered those comments as blasting you. Well, here goes again because even despite the continued winderfuk success with the Jumbo Package in the red zone, I think going to Bannan as a full time offensive player this year would be a bad idea which: 1. would involve a huge distraction which is unlikely to pay many benefits to the team this year. 2. the distraction would be from a much better idea for improving LG play as we forced by the Sullivan and Pacillo failures to reach down for the unlikely possibility that a UDFA Ravens PS player would make the full jump to quality NFL stsrting LG for the Bills. The idea of moving Tucker from back-up center where he is at least a season OL player who is trained to understand all the OL positions simply hands down makes far more sense than expecting/demanding a defensive player to learn the whole playbook and master the position in 8 games. I'd rather JMac worry about dealing with the impacts of the potential loss of a starter like MW than spend his time power-schooling Bannan who obviously has his hands full learning the limited redzone playbook. 3, Even in terms of the back-up position, while I am not surprised at all that Leonard Smith could not make the jump from UDFA/PS player for another squad to adequate full time starter for the Bills, I think pegging him as a back-up makes far more sense. Clearly he was unproductive as a rezone LG, but he actually turned in a fair to middlin performance taking on the virtually impossible jump he was making from his duty last year to the demands of being a starter. He was the starter in a sack-free game earlier this season and the starter for WMs first 100 yard game. Bannan replaced him in the Jumbo Package last week, but it was Smith who did the bulk of the LG work in another sack free game in which WM went over 100 yards. The idea of having JMac work to power train him and him work to make a huge transition in a short time to merely sit on the bench seems like a misallocation of time. 4. I even think the days and use of the Jumbo Package may be limited. The great redzone success of this group has had the unfortunate side effect that there is now tape showing just about everything they do and any new surprises which has been part of that success will need to be developed. You can see that it is hitting the limits of its learning as it actually cost us a shot at 4 points Sunday as the OC sent in two play calls on the same play, but the Jumbo personnel was not trained in the second play. When the Jumbo failed to lead the way into the endzone on the first try, Bledsoe considered overiding the mismatch by getting the proper personnel in but there was not time with no TOs and a running clock. Some whine that Jim Kelly would have simply run a play and scored with a frelance run or pass but this dream ignores the fact that this is not your Mom'd NFL and our oversystematized playbook does not allow for having much chance for success with throwing even a quick pass the blockers have never run before (particularly when a sack losing yardage intio a wind which already cost the Jets a chip shot FG) or audibling to one of the limited number of run plays the Jumbo knows when failing to reach the endzone again might allow the clock to run out costing the Bills a full seven. Making the swich next year might be a possibility and deserves the discussion that MM says that they are giving it. However, this is is a discussion which quickly ends if PW does not take a reasonable FA offer (he bid up his value after tackling Curtis Martin for a safety Sunday) or its time to say goodbye to Sam Adams (who seems to have another year left in my book). Edwards has developed into an outstanding back-up and no one beyond the coaches knows about Anderson yet, but if Phat Pat goes then Bannan will not flip. In fact I think the idea of discussing a Bannan move next year is probably designed more as a leverage item in PW negotiations than a definite idea for the team. So this is one voice that even after a wnderful performance by Bannan opposes the idea of flipping him this year and probably next though we will see what reality makes us do.

The key question regarding hiring them or hiring Gregg Williams is that while the two may not be great coaches, even comparing their records with this year Cincy and Carlina losses they are head and shoulders better than him. With a comparison of their records last year they were standing on his grave in terms of being better than him, no they are merely head and shoulders above him. TD gets credited (blamed) for making a poor choice for GW and the fact still remains that there were better viable alternatives.

The road losses at night simply means we're due. I have no argumwent with the stats simply the interpretation of their meaning. Gooooo Billllllls

Last weekends win over a likely playoff team was impressive in many regards. As it is still mathematically possible but extremely unlikely that we will make the playoffs and even a winning record will be a tough accomplishment given the number of road games we have, the losses that amounted to an 0-4 record to start loom large. However, it is simply great to see the excitment about this team and the concept of not only waging a good fight but even winning next week. This attitude is one that makes this game so entertaining to me and makes me proud to be a Bills fan. I know what the odds are and as long as we have any chance whatsoever, I certainly never say die as there are plenty of Pitts, Philly and Pats fans who will do that. So I say this is a great point for realistic optimism. Sure there are still many improvements to make on this team and some performances that downright suck. By all means point them out, but I think the thing which makes a Bills fan a Bills fan is that despite this honesty good fans never say dies until the Fat lady is singing. Some Wadophiliac want to turn the reat of this season into a pre-season for 2005. Fortunately, the TEAM seems to have too much pride to do this as it is still the 2004 season. So I say GO BILLS warts and all. It amazes me that some folks rag on currency exchange or other issues which though not about Bills football clearly come from part of the Bills and TSW family. If you are looking for drivel it is stuff that values reality over optimism. Wade was right about the Bills making not making the playoffs his final season but he deserved it to be his final season because his surrender made him no longer really a Bill!

I think the Steelers accomplishments are great so far. The fact that a lot of their work has been based on a great job by their D and a top notch running game with multiple starter quality backs bodes well for their chances. However all this being said the great thing about this game is that it is played on the field and not in the newspapers, by pundits on TV and certainly by pundits on the internet. The Vikes showed last year as was pointed out earlier in this thread that declaring a team the SB winner at this point is so shockingly premature that they didn't even make the playoffs. I think Pitt is likely more balanced than the Vikes and will not be victims to such a meltdown, but the Red Sox proved to us against the Yanks that it ain't over til its over. Analysis about the Steelers strengths by TSW posters such as the factoid that the Steelers D is #3 are greatly appreciated since this note had missed my eye, However, pronouncements as to who will be in the SB bring gales of laughter from me and undermine presentation of objective notes in a post.

I think I can tell already. Drew Bledsoe is on the downhill side of his career and has many of the same frustrating limitations that he has always had as a player. However, with great coaching from legends like Parcells and BB, it is possible and it has actually happened that Bledsoe can QB a team to the SB or can play QB in the majority of a must win game for your team. Basically all I have said repetitively pretty much all along is that the Bledsoe haters who have repetitively declared him a statue and bent statistics (as any of us can bend stats to prove our point) to claim he has always been a loser are simply wrong. They are wrong NOT because Bledsoe is a great player or even a marginally acceptable QB running the Kevin Killdrive nonfense (it works wonderfully until opponents get a little tape and someone who knows football and Bledsoe well like BB provides a template on how to neutralize him. They were wrong because the contention that Bledsoe can never be a winner is different that the reality where Bledsoe was a winner with Parcells constantly saying throw the damn ball, different than the reality where BB/Weis have him running an offense rebuilt for Brady and his teammates have practiced all week depening on each other rather than depending on Bledsoe's great arm. The Bledsoe haters were wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. The key to understanding analyzing this is to recognize that simply because the B;edsoe haters were wrong, this does not mean that the equally vacuous Bledsoe lovers were right. Bledsoe is not a good enough QB (certainly not now on the backside of his career and actually not even before at his peak) to make a team a winner when they depend on his golden arm as their primary weapon. Bledsoe still has a great arm and in wind speeds which seem to consistently be as high as 25-20 miles an hour he can throw passes the Jay Fiedlers can not throw at consistent wind speeds of 15-20 miles an hour. However, winds gust and no one can throw accurately when the gusts get up to 40 (as they sometimes did yesterday). Further, Bledsoe plays like he is trained to play as an NFL QB and throws the ball the same way everytime. Unfortunately this means the boy has no touch and he zings 'em in there when it is a pass that is going 12 yards downfield at the same speed and pace as when he is winging them 25 yards downfield on the to Evans in the corner of the endzone. The pro receiver is good at his game (if he is good) and catches everything that hits his hands. Unfortunately, the lack of touch that Bledsoe has (some because he does not have the football brain of a Montana and some by training in the oversystematized NFL he throws it the same way every single time) means the pro receiver better be good or he is going to have the ball bounce off his pads if he tries to catch it with his body and is too much of a weenie to catch and control it with his hands. To make it work with Bledsoe the HC/OC have to not fall in love with Bledsoe's arm as Kevin Killdrive did when got pass-happy and use Bledsoe (who is still a threat that defenses must lay back an prepare for because he can throw the long ball in the wind to Evans for a completions) as a change-up rather than depending upon him. If your analysis is the same as mine when you watch. You will see an offenisve TEAM which uses an RB and uses him again to get 3.5 yards per carry and that is good enough to be effective in the winters at Rich. I think the big difference yesterday was that finally with the alarm clock standing in for Parcells yelling and some good outside of the box redzone playcalling such as the Jumbo package using Bannan filling in for BB's brain the Bills braintrust has figured out how to win by running the ball and running again and using Bledsoe effectively rather than over-depending upon him. Unfortunately with some bad breaks at 0-4 it may be too late, but next weeks game will be a put up or shut moment on the road that I love watching football for.

One needs to take into account that with a mismatch between the playcall and the personnel on the field (perhaps in particular if there is a TE problem) that even when attempting a quick pass into the endzone a team runs a substantial risk of a missed blocking assignment. If a good defender comes through unblocked he tries to take a shot at blocking the ball to create an INT or getting a sack to set the Bills back further on a windy day where O'Briean has already missed a chip shot in that direction. Modern NFL offenses unfortunately call for too much co-ordination to work well. Though modern offenses work better (particularly against the modern defender who is bigger and quicker than the defender of just a decade ago) with this co-ordination, in this case the coaches had already screwed up by mismatching he personnel and the play call so Bledsoe seemed to do the best that could be done by spiking the ball so we got the FG shot. My sense is that even a better QB (which Kelly was at his peak since he could run and throw) would have done well to do the same thing Bledsoe did running this offense. My sense is that Kelly running the K-Gun would have scored despite the coaching error on the plays. I doubt Bledsoe could have adequately run the K-Gun but maybe he could have since clearly Kelly was no brain surgeon and though he was a better runner at his peak, the K-Gun was not a QB running play offense, but if he was running the K-Gun scheme perhaps he would have scored as well. Neither Kelly nor Bledsoe would have scored with out after the initial fundamental mistake of the coaches.

I think the bottomline here is that what WM adds is that we are now a two dimensional offensive team where in the past it has been pretty one dimensional. With the threat WM poses to other teams, the rest of the offense is now working against a weaker D as these Ds shift resources aways from the blitz or other pass defense efforts in order to try to slam the door on Willis. However, to give Willis sole credit for our offensive resurgence does miss a big point because unless the team is effective at making use of other approaches then running Willis becomes one dimensional and gets stopped. Is WM doing it alone and he is the sole reason for our success? No. If Bledsoe, the WRs and other weren't good enough at their jobs to pose a threat then WM would get stopped. Does the fact that WM is playing so well allow the other players to do better? Yes. Because its more difficult for an RB to think blitz and stop WM as well they blitz less and there are fewer (no) sacks because our OL is capable of providing good pass pro for Bledsoe when they are not blitzed alot. In general I think it misses the point to look for the biggest single reason and is simply wrong to declare one player the sole reason. The key to understanding all this and to success is recignizing it works best when it is a TEAM effort and the whole is actually greater than the sum of the individual parts.

My theme this week is that it will be put up or shut up for the Bills this week. The game is setup for them to put up and it will be a measure of them whether they do or not. I think they can and by the end of the week I plan to be sure they will!

From what I here the specific issues included play calling problems and personnel. In order to efficiently use the time, the Bills called two plays in a row so as not to waste clock time in the huddle. The plays are called into Bledsoe by microphone and he translates this to the players. The problem was that the first play failed to score but the personnel they had in (The Jumbo Package with Bannan that we use in the redzone) had not practiced and couldn't run the second play which was called. An effort to sort out the personnel/play call discrepancy on the fly with the clock running resulted in the team burning time until Bledsoe simply spiked the ball to give the Bills the gimme three. Who was at fault? Everyone. However, this is my sense of responsibility. Coaches- Ultimately (particularly in the redzone) the buck stops there. Apparently the called a play for which they did not have the appropriate personnel on the field. One can see how it happened as the OC (or MM if like Marv he makes the redzone calls) called the play he thought would get the TD and if that failed he called a play which complimented the failed call. However, the mistake was not realizing that the Jumbo Package limits the plays which can be called in the redzone so in fact they called a play that was not an option. Bledsoe- I think if he is going to be faulted it has to not for any limitations he has as a player (such as he doesn't run as well as Flutie for example so that some rollouts are not even in the Bills redzone playbook) but for not being able to correct the coaching error with a TD call. Yet, folks need to realize that there was very different playbook under Jim Kelly than it is in today's NFL and that the freelancing a Kelly might have done is really impossible the way the Bills operate in the current oversystematized NFL. Had Bledsoe tried to run a Kellyesque play, the likely result would have been a 5 yard illegal motion pernalty on the Bills as I doubt the team would have been able to properly line up and implement the bold call required for a QB to take control of the offense after the coaches sent in a play the team was incapable of running with the personnel on the field. Even worse, the potential result of running a Kellyesue play in our offense might have been a missed block and a sack of the "statue" pushing us further back to kick on a windy day where the Jets already missed a chip shot FG in this direction or burned clock after the sack so we got nothing. The irony of this whole thing is that as best as I can tell Bledsoe actually did exactly the right thing which was possible for him to do with our offense given the initial mismatch between the playcall and personnel sent out. There are simply few things which he could successfully do in our oversystematized offense after a bad mismatched playcall. He got the team to the line when it became clear that players could not correct the coaches play call errors and spiked the ball the to stop the clock and at least give Lindell a relatively sure shot at 3 points. Bledsoe's work pales when compared to what Jim Kelly could do with our old offense in this situation. However, from all I can see Bledsoe did the best that could be possibly be done by almost all QBs running the Bills offense after the coaches made a fundamental mistake of calling a play the personnel they sent out could not run. Some folks may want to view this as the usual insane apologies of Bledsoe lovers, its not but understands indicting Bledsoe in this case is also the usual insane indictments of Bledsoe haters. The unfortunate thing here is that NFL offenses have become so oversystematized that they are pretty immune to successful correction even by a more talented QB than Bledsoe under many circumstances. He did the right thing here but even the right thing unfortunately is not very good after the coaches err as they did.

Folks who questioned Jerry Gray;s strategic ability when his contract was extended should now acknowledge the stunning job Gray has done with the strategic side of the Bills D so far this season. First, in terms of pure strateg, Gray has put together game plans which for the 8th time this season held an opposing RB under 100 yards. This include two games against Curtis Matin who has been unstoppable in other games he played this season and some pretty good RBs even when we lost the game such as work against Corey Dillion. I would identify the tactical part of the game as the individual play call which Gray excelled at last year as he learned and mastered a strategy primarily designed by Dick LeBeau. However, i think the fact his work on strategy matches his tactical achievements is best seen in strategic analysis and adaptation he makes at half time. The Jets actually were shredding our D with their gameplan in the first half as their passing game was torching McGee and gained an impressive 200 yards. However, the team went into the locker room and made changes which held the Jets to 80 yards in the second half (most of which came on one play where McGee slipped). They held an opponent under the magic 20 point number, delivered critical fumble recoveries and an INT and scored 2 points on their own by taking Martin gown for a safety. I give Gray and his players a lot of credit for their work, planning and adjustments.

I wouldn't discount the importance of better teamwork in several quarters as being big reasons Willis is so successful rather than attributing his and our increased success to simply one person. There is some chicken and egg to this ad good performance in one area leads to good performance in another area. However, one reason NFL football is great in my book is that it is a team game and though our simple American brains and the star machine of the NFL love to identify only one hero, the game is played better when multiple facets kick in. I would specifically identify these crucial areas of improved work that have been a key to WM and the team's success which cannot be ignored or discounted when doing accurate analysis: 1. WM himself- like you I also attribute alot of this to special talents which WM brings to the game which should not be discounted even if one recognizes that his play alone is far from the whole story of identifying big reasons for success. 2. Special teams play- This to me is the critical difference and a leading element for this team. Our Ws would simply not be without the returns of McGe and Clements and without the punting of Moorman. Their play in these areas is linked to WNs success but are really wholey sepaate from it and have been a leader which has allowed WM to get off to some unproductive starts running as he did today before he got stronger as the game went on. ST play has been critical in helping us win the field position battle which has provided a winning context for WMs play. 3. Increased confidence- This is something which WM brings but also builds upon itself as the individual players are playing better and building upon it. Passes which would have been dropsearly in the season are being caught in critical situations searate from WNs performance and this better play has made a lot of difference. 4. Fewer key penalties and ref calls going our way- It may be the greater demands individual players are putting on themselves, it may be MM getting refs to join in our practices and throw flags on our players. it may be lucky breaks as calls like Evans from Bledsoe being called in bounds and the Jets being out of TOs to challenge it, but this issue which is separate from the WM performance is one of the big factors in our O success. 5. Better OL play and blitz pick-ups- If it were simply the running game stats showing improvement or on play after play the RBs pick-up on whiff blocks by the OL you might attribute the OL improvement to WMs running, but the pass pro has also improved with O sacks in two games. WM is part of this but better OL play deserves credit for part of WMs performance. 6. Better play calling and design by the coaches- The nclock mismanagement at the end of the half shows there are still miles to go. WMs abilities obviously give the coaches confidence to go for it and have the team make it on 4th and 1. However, the coaching staff has clearly shown command of the game with moves like going to the Jumbo package with Bannan which has revitalized the O in the redzone making critical blocks which have allowed WM to walk-in unscathed. In addition, the OC has kept confidence in players and plays like using Bledsoe's arm in the wind to hit Evans. 7. The D has improved- The return of Lawyer Milloy has not simply made a big diffrence in plays like his INT but the D is simply making plays now that has preserved leads the O provided the D as they did in the pre WM era but now they hold them. Looking at WMs play and simply giving all the credit there is simply too simplistic when analyzng new found success.

I don't think it is a sense that anyone not on the Bills staff knows nothing, I think the thing which strikes a nerve is that you seem to pretend that you know everything. It's silly enough to hear silly pronouncements from a Bills staff which knows a lot of stuff to also hear pronouncements which range from at least debatable to just plain silly stated as a certainty by you. Specifically, you must be able to read minds as you somehow express stone cold lock certainty about TDs motivations on moves that aren't even possible to make yet. Bledsoe is not being replaced by Losman not because of TDs ego but because Losman is not physically able to do a full practice and even when he is there are mental and mechanical reasons why he may develop better from sitting than he would from playing when he is "Todd Collins" ready to go. Also, it is possible MW may be moved to LG one day but citing the fact he easily is beaten by a speed rush around the end when there were no sacks last weekend and he received a gameball for his play is certainly no proof of this contention. Even in the bigger picture beyind one game, many of the Bills sack problems have come from up the gut, from someone like Abraham beating Jennings and back coordination which left MW looking wih befuddlement at Pucillo rather than him getting beaten around the end by a speed rush. The observation you make about MWs problem with speed guys at RT simply are not the biggest problem he has. The internet is certainly a place for claiming more certainty than is rational, but if you do this expect folks to identify them as little more than fact-free opinions.

I certainly would agree with the idea of MM/TC/Wyche planning and hoping for JP to begin his play with mop up duty in Cleveland. This sounds about right and likely to me given the issues which JP needs to deal with to be ready to play. I think they are: 1. Get physically ready- This is a total dead certainty in my book. Based on the latest reports (which no one outside can totally trust or should because I hope the Bills are lying to us about this because they must lie as much as the rule allow to deny opponents any info) JP still fills limited physically when he takes the field and reports of his complete recovery are exaggerated. Folks who hate Bledsoe may want to see him play yesterday, but the schedule for developing him as our QB of the future is far more important than the wishes of those fans who want their candy and want it now. I certainly say err on the side of caution as JP's play will add nothing to our playoff hopes this year and he has plenty of other development to do off the field which is also essential and actually more critical to his development as our QB of the future than the on-field play against NFL competition which is also essential. 2. Get mentally ready- All rookie NFL QBs in addition to getting used to playing at NFL speeds and against NFL competition which ONLY comes from on field play, also MUST learn how to read, play and anticipate NFL offenses and defenses. One of the ironies of JP injury is that it may actually improve and hasten his development IF he put the time he could not play to good use and went up into the booth and watched play after play develop and of even greater import and opportunity became Sam Wyche's best friend and had the old HC download his knowledge of the NFL way to JP. Not being able to play was such an opportunity for the youngster. Rather than standing on the sideline carrying a clipboard and preparting himself just in case we needed to use a disaster QB, he had a chance to really watch the game develop and to hear from Wyche why it was developing the way it was. I really hope he used this "down time" with Wyche rather than yucking it up with the boys on the sideline in street clothes. Being one of the boys is important as well because leadership ability comes with that. However, in terms of development of leadership and having the athleticism to play at NFL speeds which ONLY can be honed on the field, I'm less worried about that because JP brings alot to the table with his cockiness and from runningfor his life at Tulane. It is the part of development which can ONLY be learned from watching tons of tape, listening and soaking in the Wyche wisdom and watching the game which strike me as the big priorities for JPs development. 3. Get his mechanics down- Look I loved the old NFL where plays probably had much more in common to my street ball of the old days (go down to where to Chevy is parked, do a stop and go ad look for the bomb) than they do to themodern offenses. However, in today's oversystematized NFL those days are gone. Jim Kelly will go down in history as the last of the QBs to essentially call his own game. Successtoday is players working together in lockstep. Losman has to learn to throw the ball virtually the same way everytime rather than usethe freelancing he used so well in college. One can get away with throwing off the wrong foot, off balance throws, and lob arching shots at Tulane, but NFL opponents will eat him for lunch. and p;ayers will turn too late or too soon on timing routes if he freelances too much. I hope it proves to be a minor issue but from what I have heard and what I have seen on theTulane highlights, he needs to work on his mechanics. Until JP gets an A-OK from MM/TC/Wyche in all of these areas, its fine with me if he sits on the bench. Based on what I have seen from other recent rookie QBs wo sat and learned these issues as rookies and then led their team to the playoffs as second year QBs, I do not think we necessarily condemn JP to a non-co0ntributing year next year by sitting him this year. Does JP need to actually play with NFL teammates and against NFL opposition to actually learn to be a contributing NFL QB? You bet. Definitely, totally and without a doubt. However, he can and MUST play with NFL teammates in practice. He will and can build chemistry with his teammates by practicing with them indoors at the Ralph practice field and at the Stadium in front of empty seats and it will help him develop and yes it is important. Is playing in practice the same as playing in games? Nope. Playing against real opponents in real games is a much better learning experience than playing with or against the scout team or with or against the back-ups. However, playing scout or back-up or in practice is not worthless. it is playing at NFL speeds and against NFL opponents. It should not be counted upon for everything and he must play real games but it also should not be considered nothing. To me the reasonable JOP development schedule is: 11/5-12/12- JP plays only in practice. His emphasis right now is watching tape and continuing the download from Wyche. Practice tends toward throwing the ball repitiously to get his mechanics down and work his bones from moving to make conistent on-balance throws. Last week was good as he got to wear the uniform and go through practice, but he would only play in emergencies and actually I would have gone to Eric Moulds as my disaster QB first if both Bledsoe and Matthews got hurt. It maybe the same this week but he is my disaster QB at most. Johnathan Smith, Khalil Hill. and Gerorge Wilson (WRs on the PS) are his best friends for now as he builds chemistry and leadership and as the real players schedules allow as they prepare themselves to really play Sam Aiken, Lee Evans and a recovering Josh Reed also can be his workmates. 12/12- Mop-up duty against Cleveland at home is what I'm targetting as his first work in a real game. 12/26- A game in SF provides a good first chance at some roadwork. 1/2- The final game at home against Pittsburgh possibly affords an opportunity to work with him on preparation to really play, but so much of this is theoretical as it depends on the braintrust assessment of his development and how things play out with Bledsoe the rest of the year. With good luck (which I doubt will happen but we Bills fans have to hope) Bledsoe revitalizes his career, plays well and we are free to let JP develop as slowly as Bills needs and reality dictate. More likely though I think Bledsoe is done and will need to be cut after June 1, 2005 to remove him from distracting JPs development but distribute his cap hit. If things are unlike they were last Sunday and Bledsoe's presence hurts the team AND JPs development physically, mentally and with mechanics allow you play him for real likely starting no sooner than 12/12 against Cleveland.

My apologies as I didn't realize we should now refer to you as Dr. ICE since you not only completed med school in your time away from TSW, but you have been hired as JP's doc. You clearly speak with knowledge and authority about his case which you obviously know in complete detail. Look, bones certainly do take a normal time to heal from a particular injury, but we have no real idea how severe or mild JPs injury is and how his healing is going. We know what the Bills are telling us, but actually I hope they are lying to the public to the extent the rules allow so as not to give out information to enemy teams. As customers, I know we want info and the truth, but as a Bills partisan I am happy to see the team flat-out lie to me about a player's physical condition when these lies make it harder for the opposition to know how our players are doing. JP should play when he is ready and not a moment sooner. If that moment does npt ccur at all this season, it will be a minor bummer, but only minor as I think JP needs lots of work to be truly ready to contribute as an NFL QB. Though facing real opposition and on the field work are essential to his development and he will not develop fully until he plays, the good news for us is that it seems to be necessary for JP to ALSO develop in many ways which can be done off-field so I don't think we will lose much if any time to him becoming a contributing Bill QB of the future if he does not play at all this year. I disagree with folks who want to rush him along before he is ready to play because they hate Bledsoe so much. Hatred for Bledsoe or confidence that he will not lad this team to glory is not a good reason to rush JP along in a way that hurts his development.