Fake-Fat Sunny

My summary of the Drew trade: On field for the Bills- Big gain the first year as getting Drew coincided with and play a large role in moving the team from 3-13 with an impotent offense and a D that could play 3/4 of a game well max in 2001 to 8-8 with Bledsoe setting many team passing records and playing QB for a O with a Pro Bowl reserve nod for him (deserved in my view if not who do you suggest was a better performer), a Pro Bowl berth for WR Moulds. a Pro Bowl appearance for RB Henry and a big FA deal for PP who got 94 receptions initiated by Bledsoe. Our D was an even worse performer that year as startting LB acqusition Robinson and rookie Wire filling in for Jenkins were not up to the game to be starters. In addition, though they kept the right QB in Brady, trading Bledsoe argualy cost this team even making the playoffs as they absorbed an accelerated cap hit in this season bookended by two SB wins. However, the trade proved to be a wash for both the Pats and the Bills as the on-field results the next year saw the Bills do a complete 180 in production and Bledsoe's poor play was a lead in the offensive meltdown and the Pats won an SN with Brady playing a leading role and FA acquisitions like Harrison being a key for them once they got past the Bledsoe cap acceleration hit. As the Pats had a wash in results but were and are on an upswing with the trade and the Bills finished on the downswing in production linked to the trade I think it is legitimate in this what have you done for me lately league to jusdgw this wash in terms of onfield results as favoring the Pats (though I think calling this the Pats raping the Bills ignores both the Pats missing the playoffs in 2002 due I believe to the cap impacts forced on them by correctly trading Bledsoe. Off-field impacts- These are impossible to state with certainty, but no one can credibly deny that moving from RJ/AVP to Bledsoe as starter coincided with huge financial gains for the Bills that almost certainly were linked to excitment caused by the Bledsoe acqusition. Objective evidence from the spike in ticket sales right after his signing, to the bid turnout for the welcome Drew event to an ongoing record of sales of luzury boxes and consecutive home sellouts almost certainly were stringly influenced by how Bledsoe could be sold regardless of his production, The deal is a wash with a bad trend for the Bills at the end of two years on the field but the off-field business spike which coincided with Bledsoe's presecense make this deal a winner for the team. The real GM mistakes were: 1. Not quitting while we were ahead and saying goodbye to Bledsoe this past off-season. 2. Once you decide to resign him then you have to have a credible plan B if he proves to be beyond rehabilitation. Travis Brown was never that and TD screwed up by not having a plan B at QB.

I think that the mistake here is the one that the article and you in this post make that seems to believe that EVERYONE is being motivated here by the same thing. Even if anyone wants to insist that there is only one right way of looking at an issue and all other ways are completely wrong (last I saw, outside of my wife there are no perfect people in this world who are right about everything). Was race the major driver in all the folks who were dismayed by this ad or lodged complaints with the NFL, ABC or FCC. No. A good number of folks as best I can tell were motivated by seeing sex depicted on TV in the family hour (why this surprised some folks I don't know given the language used and scenes shown or implied in the family hour on popular shows such as Friends). A good number of folks also were surprised to see such a depiction in conjunction with a "wholesome" show like the NFL which they watch with their kids (again why this surprised some folks I don;t know as the wholesome NFL routinely sells sex, has scantily clad cheerleaders all over the place, has mikes which routinely pick up foul language in normal use. Racw played little or no factor in why many folks were offended by this even if I wasn't. However, in our society we have not yet overcome the issue of prejudice and racially based thinking by some folks, The existence of these views and the advocay of pre-judgment of people regardless of an assessment of their character and based mostly or soley on the color of their skin still exists. I would be surpised if some of the complaints were not motivated by the same type of thinking which resulted in a black man being dragged to death chained to a truck and other virulent racist acts which still unfortunately occur in our society. The issue of race raised touches on an extreme case of sexual interaction will be one of the last vestiges of prejudice to fall and touches upon other issues of gender bias and assumed ownership which still plague society (in my view). I do not think that race is an issue at all for me here because the main take I got from watching this ad was to doubt its message that good football is more important to many people than sex, even on Monday night. However, I know that not everyone thinks like I do and I think a lot of people were offended by this when I wasn't and some of those who were offended were put off by the racial interaction. I do not feel that those who were offended by this because it was a depiction of sex during the family hour in a football broadcast were wrong even though I disagree with them. I do feel that (I hope few) folks who were offended by this because of race are in fact wrong, but thankfully there are few enough of these people and they are not in charge that mostly I feel sad for them and their troubled view of the world,

I certainly don't think (Simon can speak for himself but I didn't see him say) the offensive line has nothing to do with these numbers. What I do say is that any claim that these numbers would be reversed if only we had better OL players or better OL performance does not make good football sense. Our OL has a number of clear deficiencies, though many of them have been problems which wr have suffered from since the end of the K-Gun and Kent Hull;s career. The good news for Bills fans is that a number of these long-term problems appear to have resources in place finally to address them and the OL is still a troubled unit but is much improved in terms of on the field performance even as meltdowns continue. While this improvement in OL play is not yet reflected in relative production of the offense as you show in the numbers you provide, there is tangible objective evidence of improved recent performance under the new regime and subjective evidence which can be debated unless we allow ourselves to merely invest in ad hominem attacks on observations when a tangible debate can be easily had. Specifically, there are several tangible resources improvements one can point to on the Bills (no single change gurantees production in the relative areas you provide, yet it seems hard to argue the changes are not improvements); 1. We now have adult OL and even OC guidance- JMac is an upgrade over Vinky and Ruel and Clements is an upgrade at OC over Kevin Killdrive. Do you disagree? Fine if you do, I'm glad to debate this point. 2. We have strong RBs in WM (who is still recovering his old form from his injury) and a guy who gained around 2800 yards in two recent years of play and an appearnance in the Pro Bowl. Do you disagree? Fine if you do, I'm glad to debate this point. 3. The OL play represents an relative upgrade at each position over past performance under Vinky and Ruel- Center- Teague resisted giving up LT for C initially but has taken to the position personally based on his comments and has a rep for being able to diagnose and make line calls which all his coaches have publicly talked about. He has demonstated in the past an ability to play effectively even though he is not the biggest guy (he received the objective based certification of FA contracts and interest in him coming out of Denver and with the Bills), he had demonstrated impovement in making shotgun hikes and snaps to Bledsoe, and he has demionstrated improvement in not getting bowled over this year by big DTs as he did in the past. It appears to me his problem was not an inability to do these individual tasks, but an inability to multi-task well and do them all at the same time (for example he was most likely to get bowled over when he was focusing on line calls or making shotfun snaps. Time and experience (and probably better OL coaching) has made him better at multi-tasking. RG- Villareal is simply an upgrade over Pucillo. LG- Losing Ruben was a downgrade because he was one of the only OL players with significant (or any experience at some points) at his position. His time as a Bill was done because he found it necessary to publicly challenge Kevin Kildrive and even if you are right new bosses can never truly trust a guy who takes on publicly the old boss. Losing Ruben but getting Villarial seems to be at least an even trade in terms of talent. The new OL regime found they had a problem because they found the two candidates to replace Ruben from the old guard (Sully and Pucillo) both lacking. The good news is that they have found two candidates now to replace RB who are not yet adequate (Tucker and Smith) but do have some upside (Smith gets ragged on but my gosh the guy is a UDFA from the Ravens PS last year and merely becoming a credible backup for us is a big jump and the fact he did any kind of a job as a starter was great and forced upon us by the failure of Sully and Pucillo). The most glaring and demonstrable failure of Smith was in redzone production and here I give the Bills braintrust all sorts of credit for adopting the Belicheck like method of employing defensive players to fill in for Smith with great effectiveness. LT: The play here is about the same now as it has been as Jennings is still the man and still misses games due to injury on occaisions. Yet Price does a great job filling in. RT: There is that question of who bears the blame for MW disappointing for his 4th player drafted position (Vinky/Ruel provided lackluster training and ended up having to help Pucillo which was not going to work or TD for allowing hiring of these two not ready for primetime coaches or did he overreach for MW). However, it is clear that MM, TC and JMac do not bear the blame for his unprofessional reaction to a death in his family and in fact bear a lot of credit for the upgrade in his play over last year and this off-season. Again do you disagree with any of this analysis (my hopes at LG is perhaps the shakiest area) but I am more than happy to debate any of these specific points, The specifc question of your post which I come to Simon's defense on is the accusation that he ever said Teague was a great center (he did not say that) and attacking his comments for being a Dorothy like excursion into fantasy land when he quite specifically and in great detail pointed to improvements in specific OL techniue and play. Your reply to my reply is true that the Bills offense has not produced good yards relative to the rest of the league. OL performance is obviously a part of offensive production. However, one should not draw the conclusion that the reason for that offensive failing is mostly the fault of the OL or that the OL has not improved at all in their specific techniquesand play. In fact, if one cares enough about the Bills and football to analyze the specifics of OL play since the change of the OL, OC and HC improvements in players and their play strongly points to looking elsewhere for the sources of our bad yardage production. Simon links this to play by Bledsoe. I think Bledsoe's play sucks but I still see this as more symptom than cause. Smarter people than me (or Simon since he claims to be a moron) have not figured out the answer to this question and they even get paid to do so. My guess is that the real answer to this problem is that the Bills have not yet made many good pieces (WMs play, MM/TC's past achievements in QB revival, talented WRs and an improving OL) fit together properly so the whole is greater than the individual parts. Who knows? However, I definitely think we are more likely to find a better answer through some of the detailed analysis and exchange over it in this thread rather than from incorrectly stating Simon (or anyone's) views on what they said or dismissing his detail by calling it mere fantasy based on the incorrect summary of his views.

It's called a market because you can play it. Real events will make a difference and if one of the RBs on your list suffers a blow-out injury or even a signficant nick it will lower the supply and possibly increase the demand by 1. In addition, the Bills will have the advantage that Henry is under contract for one year and the Bills will write the ticket (with their trading partner) for shipping him while as with an FA it is the player who writes the ticket (with thesigning partner). Many posters seem to falsely assign an absolute worth to a player as though there is some static correlation between his production and his contract but it isn't that way at all. What the can get for Henry is purely a measure of supply and demand and until the season is over the market is not set yet at all. The original post is helpful as it provides some parameters for the likely supply of RBs, this supply seems to be pretty large (bad for the Bills) but is quite likely to be reduced by circumstance as teams look to lock up the players they have and injuries occur (good for the Bills). One of the leading indicators for demand is that if nothing else, the NFL is about imitation of what has worked before for others. The NE experience with Corey Dillon strikes me as making it far more likely that teams (Philly is an example) will be looking for an RB with a past history of a Pro Bowl appearance and production who is their one missing piece. Having a personal rep as a me player will not be a disqualifier based on the Dillon experience and because he hasa rep of playing through injury and he has kept his mouth shut this year, Henry does not have that rep even though we who know him snf proffitted from his lack of fiscal management skills can find fault with him. In the end, I suspect the Bills will make a deal for him and at worst this deal will be of the conditional type which was used to move whathisname as an RB to Detroit after he failed here. The conditional deal strikes me as providing at least a 2nd *and maybe even a 1st for Henry if his play for his new teams meets standards for yardage gained or appearances which he will be unlikely to meet.

Is there any objective evidence of this whatsoever or is it merely the frustration we all feel that is prompting this? One can certainly construct a theory based on him looking out only for $ for him that could be a possible explanation for him milking it, but without any objective evidence or even credible indication to support this theory it probably says more about the thoretician than Vincent.

Bledsoe does need to go, but not until after June 2005 as a cap casualty so his bonus can be distributed over 3 seasons. It appears he is a $6+ million cap hit to stay (reasonable for a starting quality QB, but Bledsoe's play has not since late 2002 starter quality and likely will never be starter quality for the Bills), $4 million + if he is gone ASAP, and $3 million + if heis held and released as a cap casualty. The million dollar difference in cap hit will determine whether our new players are long risk guys on the way out like Robinson at LB and Jenkins at S, or recent Pro Bowlers like Adams or Milloy (they are also on their way out but certainly more credble risks). I think having Drew out ASAU (as soon as useful) makes a lot more sense than ASAP.

What do you as problematic about the way Henry has handled his demotion because WM is a better player. He has struck me as being far from the cancer that many pro athletes can be in this situatiion and that he has said and done the right things to date. Even to the extent he is a "mess upstairs" (though I'm not sure his seemingly complete inability to manage his finances makes him a mess) the Bills acually gained an advantage from this as he signed a one year extension on his deal for some upfront cash which has allowed us to bring WM along slowly (with good results) and potentially recoup something from getting rid of him in trade. I think he can make more $ getting traded and probably will get nore vocal to force a trade as next season approaches, but if he were going to play the same role of silence as a former Pro Bowl back-up RB to WM, I'd have no problem keeping him.

My sense of TD's primary motivation in hiring HCs has been and is a sense that he takes the very human approach of saying Never Again will he be run out of town and fired by a coach he hired as he was in Pitts by Cowher. I still think this is true (though I do not know the man and the tea leave declarations of certainty regarding TDs motivations for this or that seem little more than guesses to me though the posters often claim certainty). Yet, even though I think this Never Again motivation is probably true, I did completely misread how TD has been going about making this happen. I assumed that part of his MO was to get his guys and his team in place to do his bidding and added a dash of new guys he hit it off with in interviews based on their convincing him they would be loyal. However, I did completely misread the replacement OC situation as my assumption was that Kevin Killdrive was TD's guy based on their past history. Instead it now appears that Clements was TDs choice to replace the failed Sheppard but that GW "won" this dispute and got a guy TD could not argue against who actually met on the surface many of the public complaints about GW's failed first set of lieutenants picked as Killdrive was an experienced former HC. The key here to me (more tea leaves) though is that a primary part of the TD HC maintenance strategy is oddly passive-aggressive. He will go out and get his old buddies (LeBeau/Steckel) and put them in place in areas of obvious HC failure in GWs case. but he did not force GW to take advantage of these resources. GW should have reined in Killdrive once he became demonstrably ineffective with his repetition of stuff which may have worked initially but now folks had tape on, but he never fired OC Payton as Fassel did when Payton became ineffective even with a former OC on the staff. TD did appear to become stridently aggressive in reining GW in when he publicly overstepped his bounds like making GM like pronouncements on Larry Centers only to see Centers get canned a week later and replaced by Gash, but in general TD seemed content to let GW make his own bed, fail and then force him to sleep in it. Good Never Again strategy perhaps but our team still failed and sucked. In general, I think that we have a big problem in that TD and the gang put far too much faith in Bledsoe and our team is paying the price for this. However, I think that asking Bledsoe to perform was not totally unreasonable as under the right circumstances (an HC as good and strong as Parcells or BB, a new offense with little tape on him) he has produced a trip to the SB, a win in a must-win game, and a deserved nod from the Pro Bowl. Yet, his limitations are also clear, he's getting older and when opponents get some tape on him he can very effectively be nullified. The big mistake and difficult to forgive one in my perspective was never having a credible plan B if Bledsoe performed as he did last year. I think TD can be easily held up for blame (and even ridicule if that is what you are into) on this point. Instead, I think many Bledsoe haters take a fairly stupid but simple way out in finding fault with him in that they falsely claim Bledsoe never ever won anything (he has won, with Parcells, in a must-win game running an O powereed down for Brady, a bunch of Bills records and the Pro Bowl nod his first year here until opponents go enough tape on him and BB provided a template for beating him). This departure from reality u;timate serves to undercut those who could more easily find real fault with TD if they just stuck with the facts rather than presenting tthe facts in a manner which ignores reality. Overall, I think MM can be faulted for never finding a serious answer to how yopu win if Bledsoe goes south or gets. I think this fault is more likely explained by MM hubrus that he and Clements were certain they could revive his career and that hey would also revive travis Brown's career rather than some bizarre conspiracy theory that TD is suddenly now totally aggressive in promoting Bledsoe.

My comments would be: 1. Great news that he is reporting feeling no pain! I'm definitely psyched to see him recovered. That being said, I hope and assume that the Bills braintrust will do their own objective assessment of issues like having the docs check the injury site for any impacts from playing and determining for themselves that his range of motion is good. Everyone also knows that if you ask any competitive player how the injury is they will say Fine, put me in coach. Even if they won't lie to the coach I do expect and hope they would lie to me and the public about the condition of any injury so that opponents do not target that spot for hard hits or an extra twist as they get up from tackling him. You really aren't naive enought to believe what any player says about his injury recovery are you? 2. Your views on the practice issue are amusingly contradictory. If as you say that PLAYING IS THE ONLY WAY YOU GET BETTER, then why is it so important that he was not given time to practice for he played. Look, either practice is helpful or it isn't. Either there is a legitimate case to be made that playing isn't the ONLY way to get ready or he was not "fugged" at all for not being given practice. It helps our little brains if you make up your mind and choose one argument. 3. I also agree that you can not simulate real play in practice. I have flat-out said that it is important for JP's development to play. What I have been arguing which you seem to be arguing against is that yes Virginia there are other ways to get better in addition to playing. A. As you point out in your complaints about MM fuggin JP even though it contradicts your argument that playing is the ONLY way to get better , practice with the team is important preparation for playing in games. B. Practice with your teammates does not equal the intensity or feel or playing in a real NFL game, but playing against pro athletes from your own team is different than playing against college athletes. NFL athletes are all good athletes whereas a few opposing ahtletes are good and some stinct. Pro speed even in practice is faster than college speed. JP will not learn the game as well or as fast (or in some regards at all) merely practicing, but he will improve his game over his play with Tulane level athletes. 4. The mechanical issues are best solved in an activity that does not even involve simulated practice against teammates, it involves a boring reptition of passing drills with a scrub or ball-boy under Wyche's watchful eye who I'm sure is working JP to get him to throw the ball with consistency the same way everytime and as the injury healed to practice dropbacks and rollouts and throwing with balance off the correct foot. 5. The other thing to pay attention to here that I and others are not arguing that JP shoukld be stapled to the bench and never leave it, I am arguing that there are plenty of other ways for him to get playing time besides the all or nothing of start him or not. When the game us out of hand because we are getting smashed or should we ever happen to blow somebody out, JP can easily start off with a quarter of play and gain from it. Even mop-up duty (it is to be hoped with a little more prep than Sunday) is playing time. Again, start JP when he is ready, not a moment sooner and not a moment later. Unless he is misdirecting opponents it sounds like he is good to go physically. The braintrust should also assess whether this rookie has absorbed the game of a vet adequately to develop his game and help and not hurt his development. The braintrust should also assess whether the mechanical issues have been ironed out enough that bad habits are not ingrained and that he can build true chemistry his receivers rather than setting a precedent which will change as he improves.

I'll come to Simon's defense on this one (since he took the time to do some great and detailed commentary which I see as TSW at its best) because you misquote and mischaracterize his comments. He specifically stated in his post leading off this thread: Trey Teague (who has become a very good Center since he's been playing for McNally/Clements I think there is a significant difference between your incorrect attribution to Simon that he called Teague a "great center" and his statement that he has become a very good center since he started playing for JMac Clements. I think that while a claim that he is great could legitimately be identified as a fantasy, the claim that he is now very good is merely open to debate. Further, since he stated a specific time in Teague's work he was referring to, this not only applies this consideration to a time period which does not include Teague's worse play when he would occaisionally get bowled over, it not only strengthens his claim, but it sets the table for true debate rather than a general attack that he is involved in some fantasy. Your post is simply incorrect.

This thread getting so long finally tweaked my interest along with a debate on on the news channels which asked the question whether part of the reason this ad engendered so much chatter was because it featured a white woman and a black man who decided to get it on. The most interesting thing to me in this thread was that it does include a couple of posts which link to the actual commercial so that I could see it (it was fairly tame for this adult mind as I have seen both a lot more skin on TV and here a lot more of "foul" language during the family hour on shows such as Friends). However, mission accomplished by ABC as I had zero interest and no real knowledge of Desperate Housewives before this commercial and now might watch it once out of curiousity. I may even stick around if the show's babes have same interests as 2 of 3 women shown in the ad that given a choice between football and sex, at least on Monday nights they would choose football.

1) I think the fact that MM put him means that JP is physically healthy from the fracture. I doubt he takes many chances with the Bill's QB of the future. The team has shown with how they handled the rehab of WM that they are pretty conservative medically. They resisted the wails of fans who wanted him playing last year, or even calling him a wasted draft pick because he did not start right away this year. I think it is really a bit bizarre how some folks declare that there is some set in stone standard when a draft pick, particularly a 1st rounder must play and produce. Eric Mould's career says no. I think the big health issue to consider here is not whether JP is recovered from the break, but instead how does he respond to typical NFL pounding. Spme irrationally called immediately for him to be starter. However, good medicine and good football says that JP can't be declared ready to start until a couple of days after the game (even if you judged his knowledge of the NFL offenses/defenses and his mechanics sufficient to start) until you are sure that your QB of the future has no untoward swelling at the site of the injury and no limitations in his range of motion from the typical pounding of NFL play on the injury. 2. If the season were in the balance, I'd say start the players who give you the best chance to win the game. However, as the season is virtually over, I think that a key to winning in the future is showing that loyalty and being a teammate counts. Drew is done as a Bill from my perspective as a player, but since it does not matter a lot whether we win 4, 6, or 7 games (I guess it matters to Parcells) I think that it is important that the TEAM give its anointed standard bearers (even if they werestupid to anoint him) a chance to go down with some semblance of dignity. If it meant a playoff difference things would be different. At some point seeing the old vet flail around the merciful thing for him will be to bench him. If anything my major concern with Bledsoe right now is that I think that Matthews may give the team better practice than Bledsoe. s for JP: Start Losman when he is ready, not a minute sooner and not a minute later.

Agreed. Start Losman when he is ready, not a minute sooner and not a minute later.

Agreed, he can get PT that all players need to improve their games by playing as a reserve in sidnificant periods of the 2nd half and even in mop-up time. In fact, he will be playing against NFL competition and against NFL level speed in practice. Though this do not compare at all to playing in real games it also does not compare at all to playing against college level talent where you can throw off-balance or off the wrong foot and still make TDs. I say: Start Losman when he is ready, not a minute sooner and not a minute later.

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Do you mean start him before he is healthy if he has shown untoward swelling from his brief appearance or he has limitations in his range of motion prompted by his first game stress on his fracture? Do you mean start him if we feel he has not absorbed the playbook adequately or can't properly read MFL defenses to protect himself or his teammates or have any chance of suceeding? Do you mean start him if we still feel that his mechanics are so college like that he will ingrain bad habits in his play and fail to build chemistry with Evans and his other receivers. I say: Start Losman when he is ready, not a minute sooner and not a minute later.

Start Losman when he is ready, not a minute sooner and not a minute later.

Bingo! Who knows what the real story is or the real rationale behind it, but certainly my first reaction upon hearung JP was in with no warning was that it should be a good lesson for the rookie (a lesson I wish someone has taught BJ Hobert) that if you are in uniform you better be prepared to go in. Who knows how Losman used the enforced downtime of his injury, but this provided him with such a great opportunity to learn to understand NFL offenses and defenses and to get Sam Wyche to download to him, I hope he used his injury time well.

Start Losman when he is ready, not a minute sooner and not a minute later.

Let me add my great post nod to the many already expressed. I don't know what's sillier, we morons who out up detailed posts or the morons who claim longer posts are a waste or time and then waste their time to read them. I guess even worse are those who see them as too long to read and give fact-free opinions (by definition since they didn't read it) that the post or poster is stupid. Let me clue folks in , its too long for their attention defitict then don't read it. At any rate, here's my too long cut on the OL from another post: OL- It would have been wrong to expect JMac to be a miracle worker, particularly coming into the inheritance of players he got (particularly with MW's professionalism going south)). However, next year our hope for miracles in his second year is still outlandish but at least its reasonably outlandish. I suspect our line-up is: C- Teague has performed better and shows he has the intellect for the job. He could diagnose plays, is finally learning how to make shotgun snaps, and has always use athleticism to be an underweight blocker. However, he could not do all these things at the same time and the biggest improvement I see in his game is the ability to multi-task. I think you can build around him. RG- Villareal is about at the same level as Ruben Brown, except Ruben was better because as a longtime Bill he coul lead and teach in ways Villareal could not. However, Villareal is now a Bill and I feel good about him at RG. LG- Tucker really impressed me as a back-up center pressed into service by Teague's injury and the idea of making him the fulltime LG has some merit as we look to fill the Ruben hole. However, we need a serious back-up C and interior lineman and I do not feel bad at all about Tucker taking this duty if Lawrence Smith continues what has been an insane level of development by him. It would be asking a lot for him to merely become a real player for the Bills as a back-up as a UDFA off the Ravens PS. the idea of him stepping up to become our starter was insane. Thus I am not disappointed at all in that he is not starter material yet. if he grows over the off-season make him the starting LG. If not train him to be the R and L Guard back-up. LT- Do not pay Jennnings big bucks. His history of injury is simply too dicey. LT is either my FA target (and everyone elses) or make Tucker the starting C and move Teague where he played for Denver and wanted to go anywya, or (possible but unlikely) if MW learns to be a professional as he seems to have learned it to LMac satisfaction then possibly if necessary consider the planned move to LT. RT- I leave MW here unless we need him at LT in which case RT becomes an FA need or back-up tackle if we want to move Price to starter. Back-up tackles- I like Price covering us at these two positions. Activating Peters as a tackle is also interesting. Back-up guards- I like the idea of Tucker stepping into a startting slot and if this happens then train Smith the back-up both roles. Back-up center- Tucker filled inwell for Teague, if he is the starting guard, if becomes important to train a back-up center though if Teague goes down moving Tucker over and Smith in at LG works. Maybe Sobieski finally pays off as a back-up C option. I think we are in pretty good shape and agree that FA has little to offer beyond a speculative effort which may work but probably will not. I think where we disagree iw that not only do I think we will not be able to resign Jennings I ddon't mind if we let him go. To fill the gap, I don't mind sending Teague there now that Tucker has demonstrated some ability. Failing that, I think the intent was always to move MW over there, but this idea obviously will not fly if MW will not even act like a professional. However, he seems to be back on the right track now. I know that none other than JMac himself has introduced the concept of MW moving to guard, but this struck me as all about adjusting MW's attitude with the threat of hitting him in the purse. He has not struck me at all as having any inordinate agility issues with speed rushers but actually struck me as having inordinate problems figuring out stunts by inside rushers who ended up being his responsibility and co=ordinating with RGs like Pacillo. In terms of the OL as a whole it has been up the middle rushers bowling over Teague or an up the middle LB rush forcing the fumble that Seymour returned for a TD which has been the Bills problem. Certainly all tackles get beat on occaision by outside rushes (ex. Schobel beat Ogden to get Boller( but I have not seen a lot of examples of the problem he sites. Its tough for me to give examples of a negative, but if he hassome case to be ade of specific MW speed rush problems beyond the occaisional mscue I'd love to hear about them from him or get the perspective of an OL watcher such as yourself. Do you see some huge outside rush problem from our RT?

I'll bite as well. There are of course a number of things which have to happen at the same time for any team to even win, much less make the SB. This is part of the reason why the over-focus on one player and one position is simply not good pro football thinking even if that one position is the QB, 1. It all comes down to the players making plays and it ends up there, but it actually starts elsewhere and this is why the HC is so important. HCs get too much credit for winning because ultimately it is about the players and their performance as a team and they get too much blame (usually but there is Rich Kotite) for losing as well because really all you can ask an HC to do is to put his players in the best position for them to make plays and they have to do it. However, one thing we saw this past weekend was how important an HC and the braintrust can be in supporting an "US first" instead of a me first approach to the game which is a key to making the whole greater than the sum of the individual parts and how attention and control of details can put players into good positions for them to make plays. To my mind, MM has failed in doing this so far this season and that is a big part of our losing. However, this is one of the things which rookie HCs do aand I see some positive signs of hope in his efforts which may translate into future success.. The things I like are: A. The braintrust really has been creative and effectively so in some cases of trying things which are a bit different and making them work- The red-zone issue is a good example. Our production simply sucked early in the season. The braintrust made a personnel switch of using DL players on the OL. This move makes little sense in terms of Xs and Os as these players are far from schooled in offensive football and it grossly limited the playbook as they had limited time to learn plays. Yet, suddenly they got effective in the red zone BB confirmed this is a workable approach with huge benefits when your players are injured and for fostering a sense that the players are teammates on a football team first and foremost. It was nice to see thatMM invested in this same approach even before BB really showed how great a tool it is. B. Hard work pays off- The ascension of Jason Peters is not just simply a great personal story but good news for the team. Soft hands for a TE got our attentionand won him a spot on the PS. Hard work on the PS at exactly the problematic area of his game (pass blocking) have won him a roster spot as a tackle. C. Rigid loyalty to the team seems to be the way things are going- MM sounds dumb simply reading the party line, but when you are in trouble being able to count fairly exactly on what your teammates are going to say is important and good for the team. Rigid loyalty to Bledsoe is stupid as he is clearly done. However, the season is also done in terms of making the playoffs (its all over but the mathematics) and I think the team is better off in the big picture showing even stupid loyalty to one of its own, D. I do like some of the ideas used- I think it comes down to run the ball and stop the run and the braintrust has been committed to both those areas in terms of drafting WM when it looked like we didn't need him to signing Adams who many said was simply a fat tub of goo (I agreed with this assessment though I argued the Adams signing was an upgrade for us to a fat tub of goo from a skinny tub of goo). In terms of the other important specifics, the outside the box upgade in redzone performance, some initial success with using an alarm clock to get Bledsoe to throw the damn ball and past success by MM/TC in rehabbing Kordelioa and Maddox do bode well. E, An emphasis on ST and an effect are there- 3 TDs on FR and PR in 9 games is darn impressive. We also seem to rarely give up big returns though our directional kickoffs are vexing and broingto watch. Moorman was an excellent find and an excellent extension and ST overall is a great sign. 2. I think the football braintrust seems pretty committed and pretty good at putting players in a position to perform. In addition to some bad calls and bounces that happen to all, I think we have had shortcomings in two areas: A. The players do need to execute and perform- I know this is a cliche and actually is a meaningless defense if you coach like GW and do not put your players in good positions to perform. However, I think the current braintrust does that so it is real in that our players simply need to step it up a notch. Too many paases which should have been caught have been dropped. Penalties like the false start o MW earlier this season which left us with a second and long and goal are on the players. It has been accompanied by someflawed coaching performances like the clock mismanagement at the end of the first half of the Jets game, but plas happen when playmakers such as McGee on kickoffs or Milloy upon his return simply make plays. B. The GM and braintrust have invested in some bad personnel decisions. Here the QB decision glare out as though I thought the trade for Bledsoe was a smart move which ended up as a wash after he had a deserved Pro Bowl first season and a simply awful second season, resigning him was a mistake. It was made worse by us never getting a credible back-up (Brown was not it)so we are now screwed (as ICE so delicately puts it). In terms of personnel changes, I think we have th cap room to try to make the following changes which might make us competitive next year. QB- Cut Bledsoe as a cap casualty after June 2005. Have Losman start when he is ready and not a moment sooner or a moment later. Look for a plan B if Losman develops slowly or not at all. I will need to scan the wire as to who is actually available, but our failure to get a plan B at QB IF Bledsoe failed has come home to roost, Kordelia has inadequacies that you would never count on him as a starter, but he is better than what we got (which is nothing except a wounded Losman and Matthews), He could have been gotten for not too much $. Volek also has his issues and we are seeing his failings in relief of McNair, but he also could have been gotten apparently for only a little more money. ICE may be down on us getting a vet as our plan A. I am too, but that should not stop us from getting a vet as our Plan B. RB- If Travis is going to deal with being a back-up as well as he has, I'd keep him and reward him with cash for playing the necesary Kenny Davis role. I doubt however, he can be made positive for long and he will want big FA bucks so trading him is fine. However, I'm more interested in a back-up RB who cabn answer the call if WM goes down than I am in replacing our #1 draft pick. Folks sing Shelton's praises but I am unimpressed so far. A Sam Gash (when he was younger) is what we need. If Shelton can step up fine, if not look on the waiver wire as the Gash's and Centers sometimes appear there when they still have something left. WR- Develop the players we got. However, I suspect next year may be Moulds last as a Bill unless some contractual change occurs to make his final cap hits more palatable. Evans needs to be developed to replace Moulds. Josh Reed either needs to meet or build upon his freshman year or be gone. Aiken finally showed promise but still drops too many. Freddy Smith showed that he is a keeper because he scored some points. This makes Hadda redundant and superfluous. TE- It is not wrong to aspire to find the next Ben Coates, The Bills are not there yet. Euhus does show some promise however. Peters is perhaps the most interesting prospect here if he got on the roster because he has leatned how to be an effective blocker. OL- It would have been wrong to expect JMac to be a miracle worker, particularly coming into the inheritance of players he got (particularly with MW's professionalism going south)). However, next year our hope for miracles in his second year is still outlandish but at least its reasonably outlandish. I suspect our line-up is: C- Teague has performed better and shows he has the intellect for the job. He could diagnose plays, is finally learning how to make shotgun snaps, and has always use athleticism to be an underweight blocker. However, he could not do all these things at the same time and the biggest improvement I see in his game is the ability to multi-task. I think you can build around him. RG- Villareal is about at the same level as Ruben Brown, except Ruben was better because as a longtime Bill he coul lead and teach in ways Villareal could not. However, Villareal is now a Bill and I feel good about him at RG. LG- Tucker really impressed me as a back-up center pressed into service by Teague's injury and the idea of making him the fulltime LG has some merit as we look to fill the Ruben hole. However, we need a serious back-up C and interior lineman and I do not feel bad at all about Tucker taking this duty if Lawrence Smith continues what has been an insane level of development by him. It would be asking a lot for him to merely become a real player for the Bills as a back-up as a UDFA off the Ravens PS. the idea of him stepping up to become our starter was insane. Thus I am not disappointed at all in that he is not starter material yet. if he grows over the off-season make him the starting LG. If not train him to be the R and L Guard back-up. LT- Do not pay Jennnings big bucks. His history of injury is simply too dicey. LT is either my FA target (and everyone elses) or make Tucker the starting C and move Teague where he played for Denver and wanted to go anywya, or (possible but unlikely) if MW learns to be a professional as he seems to have learned it to LMac satisfaction then possibly if necessary consider the planned move to LT. RT- I leave MW here unless we need him at LT in which case RT becomes an FA need or back-up tackle if we want to move Price to starter. Back-up tackles- I like Price covering us at these two positions. Activating Peters as a tackle is also interesting. Nack-up guards- I like the idea of Tucker stepping into a startting slot and if this happens then train Smith the back-up both roles. Back-up center- Tucker filled inwell for Teague, if he is the starting guard, if becomes important to train a back-up center though if Teague goes down moving Tucker over and Smith in at LG works. Maybe Sobieski finally pays off as a back-up C option. DEFENSE- DL- PWs FA status creates a wildcard on the DL, but Edwards showing a bit more (finally) gives us options here, I am still uncomfortable with Edwards in more than the spot role he has played pretty well this year so unless PW will sign for cheap I hope Anderson leap frogs Edwards. Sam Adams is a keeper so keep him signed. Schobel is a bit of a rag doll as seen this weekend on the run stop but he is our best rusher. Kelsay seems to be improving but unless he surpasses Schobel as a rush threat then we need to look seriously on the wire for a Jim Jeffcoat type of designated pass rusher as I don;t think we can afford the Jerome Kearse type outlay a quality DE would command. Denny is no more than a reasonable back-up so good to see we are still looking for the Ogunde type prospects. LB- Thia has been the best corps on the defense but Spikes/Fletcher really outshine Posey. Posey has been better this year, but apparently will never be the dominant force he showed flashes and we had hopes he would become. He is clearly vulnerable to be surpassed by a better player, but we have more pressing needs than to worry about this OLB position, The back-ups like Stamer, Crowell and Haggan have all shown good ST ability but do leaving me hoping none of the frontliners get hurt. DB- Clements has become enough of a kockdown corner that opponents look to go the other way. McGee is great on ST, but really needs to get older and learn the CB game. Vincent is still a quality CB, but we have such a crying need at FS this is likely where he should be. Milloy is expensive but really one of the great pick-ups by the TD regime. Thomas makes us pretty deep at CB and Greer had held his own, Safety is an issue as Wire, Reese, Prioleau and Baker have shown they are back ups at best and some would say less than that in Reese's case. At any rate this is a top10 D in this league or even a little better than that. In order to become truly imposing it is the pass rush which must be improved. There is a slight chance that Kelsay will develo into the difference0maker we needs, but I think our most likely and cost effective move will be to pick-up a desinated pass rusher to improve this part of our game. SPECIAL TEAMS Punting- Moorman nuff said. Kicking- One of the great TD mistakes was cutting Christie and then saying good kickers were a djme a dozen in the NFL. The cadillac is to get a Vanderjagt or a Vinateri and no onee mistakes Lindell for that even on his best days. Not bas this year inside 35 but we can't use him on distances linger than 40 so we should be lookimg. The return D looks good. KR- McGee looks like one of the best in the league. PR- Clements was a good returner but if Fast Freddy is going to return like he did on Sunday than sit the CB down. I don't think this team is that far away from competing for the playoffs.

Question for Dr. ICE. Does it make no difference in your diagnosis or your assessment of whether Losman is ready to start (or even play: 1. How his injury responded to the normal pounding of an NFL game as shown for example by any swelling at the site of the injury? 2. It makes no difference in assessing whether he is ready based on his range of motion a day or twwo after the game. It seems senseless to me to give him reps and start him regardless. Start him when he is ready to strart and not a moment sooner and not a moment later.

He can certsinly kick it fsrther, but I guess not consistently enough or he really begins to lose accuracy and predictability as to where it is going to land. I think trade-off of being assured you are going to tackle the opponent inside his thirty and not risk the returner getting a head of steam to pick his holes (the return guy may have a head of steam when he catches the kick, but he does not get a chance to pick his hole as our cover guys are already upon him) is a OK trade-off as lomg as you stop him quick (which our coverage team seems to do) and you got a good D (we do except for last Sunday that will only give up a first down or two.

Really tough if to predict as I think you are correct that the two major variables are JP starting comes with a continued Bills/Bledsoe implosion and JP bein ready to start. I agree that the individual athletic pride of each player and being at home makes it likely they will do well in this game and doing well means depending on the run and not on Bledsoe so he would be seen as rebounding even if his stats are likely to be mediocre. Traveling to play on the coast is actually one of the more likely places for the Bledsoe implosion which forces the Bills to panic bring in Losman and then it depends on him as to whether he earns the start. If he plays like he did in NE he sits, if he plays well he oribabky gets a start. Unfortunately both these variables playing out is quite possible but is unlikely that everything works out according to the stars thus I wouldn't bet or predict this will happen. My guess is actually that the Bills stick to their course and play Losman when they judge it to be good for his development. Rather than it being the start many partisans want, my guess is that he gets his PT in relief and then depending upon how he performs he will get more time, perhaps ending in a start if he does really well. He will likely get his first serious time due to an injury. Bledsoe will be pressing to imoress and as such I suspect he will be more prone to injury. Who knos when theis will happen because it is really dependent on fate, Put me down as a vote JP will actually start against Clelveland because I suspect by then we'll be forced to do it even if the braintrust doesm't want to. Nov. 21 St. Louis Preview Nov. 28 @ Seattle 4:15 Dec. 5 @ Miami 1:00 Dec. 12 Cleveland 1:00 Dec. 19 @ Cincinnati 1:00 Dec. 26 @ San Francisco 4:05 Jan. 2 Pittsburgh

I think this where we disagree. You say playing is the ONLY way. I say playimg is necesary, but not the ONLY way a player improves himself and MAY not be the first thing you do with a player to improve his game or make him good enough, Again read my photons and I will try to type slowly. JP CAN, SHOULD, and MUST play to have him develop into our QB of the future and to make the future happen as quickly as it can. The question we are discussing is when should he start. I say start him as soon as he is ready, not a moment sooner (because you can actually retard a player's development by throwing him to the wolves before he is ready) and not a moment later (because we Bills fans hurt bad watching Bledsoe's futility). If you disagree with this any think we should start him before he is ready you are even more nuts than I thought. The question we are debating is the question of IF he is in fact ready to start. I take the easy and true position I don't know. Did he have any post play swelling or range of motion limitations? I don't know. I take from him playing that he is physically healed and thats good news but I do not know if he is physically up to starting. Maybe you're a doc or have X-ray vision or something and do know how his body responded to NFL pounding after a bone fracture, Has he absorbed NFL knowledge so he can do good reads and translate them quickly and efficently to his teammates? I don't know. Most NFL rookies need a little time and some playbook reviewing and tape watching before they can do this. Its why you sit great athletes like Pennington and Vick, its why you sit a player drafted as highly as Carson Palmer. I suspecttha thanks to his injury and an opportunity to sit in the booth with Sam Wyche this part of JPs game and learning were greatly accelerated over playing. Are JPs mechnical issues we have all seen in some his best highlights of making off-balance throws and throwing off the wrong foot solved? I don't know. These issues are critical fo the modern QB in the oversystematized NFL. Patterns are such that they operate with the QB throwing the sme way everytime for the most part. The free-lancing of a Vick is exciting to watch but also seems difficult to deal with in the modern NFL, Even worse, off-balance passes can be completed against college level competition, but JP needs to raise his game a level for the pros. PT will help him do that, but in terms of a lot of the mechanics and improvement its NOT ONLY the game which is key but hours of boring repetition in practice. I think the good news for JP is that starting is not the only way to get PT. Mop-up duty helps and this is part of why he was thrown in Sunday. He will be facing NFL level speed and competition in practice and if Troy Vincent doesn't hurt him this can help as well. PT is essential and key. However, what I flat out disagree with you about is that starting is the only way to get PT and that he has nothing to gain from things other than PT. Again start Losman when he is ready, not a mpment before that and not a moment later.

TD estimates and it is a number which I have not sjown to be false by any stats I've seen about 50 percemt do not meet expectations and a healthy number of them turn out to be Ryan Leaf like busts who do not give you even 8 quality games. Someone showed the outcomes for the first round picks near the level of the traded for Drew and a few were starters. a few were second stringers and a couple were out of the league already. Bledsoe obviosuly disappointed in terms of his production for out expectations, but in addition to the fact he sucked last year, it says a lot about fan expectations of 1st rounders being fairly umrealistic.