Fake-Fat Sunny

I\ll take WM almpst blowing TDs chances but barely making them 4 times a game every week if that is the problem we have to deal with.

We aren't short on cap space unless we cut a bunch of guys who some posters are pissed at precipitiously and create dead space and also use resources having to sign new players to replace these "stiffs" who are coming off of two laugher wins including one on the road against a team that is #1 in their division. The last two games do not erase the horrendous play in the first four which left other teams in the game so bad luck against Jax and bad calls against the Raiders will likely cost us the playoffs. The last two wins also do not mean that the remaining games against the weaker part of out schedule looking at wins will be a cakewalk (in fact visions that this will be easy or looking too far ahead will cause us to lose. In my book TD has made to major screw-ups which have caused a series of good moves he has made fail to product adequate results. He hired an HC not-ready-for-primetime in GW (likely because he was motivated in large part by not wanting to hire someone who like Cowher could fire him) and he resigned Bledsoe instead of taking the wash of his Pro Bowl first year and horrendous second year and looking elsewhere for a placeholder QB while JP takes a year or perhaps two to become a contributing Bill. However, there is no cap room crisis unless we create one by cutting a bunch of guys under contract or by paying through the nose for a set of superior talents at positions where players are at best adequate.

This strikes me as a debate as to who is more wrong posters who give WM's running ability no credit for the blocking production improvement or posters who give WM's prescense the vast majority of the credit for the improvement. Both views are wrong as obviously the Ds fear of WM breaking one makes the DC less likely to commit fully to blitz calls and when he does call them the smart defender makes sure that WM is not running before they go all out for the QB. However, i think anyone who simply want to credit WMs play with the better OL performance is missing the boat on the fac that the OL registered its first sackless game during the first 4 we lost and before WM was much of a threat. In addition in one of the first four which ended up being a sackfest for the opponent, many came on blitzes where the OL players made good blocks but the RBs including WM whiffed on their assignments. In the abstract picture, JMac himself has said from before he was hired he is no miracle worker and though the OL is much improved it is far from the dominating unit we want. However, can the poster who started this thread seriously claim that Vinky and Ruel with their no and 1 year of experience a piece were as good at the OL coaching job as JMac. I think not.

Once again a blow against the Canadian ballet. What's next cutting back on lap dancing?

I was merely responding to what you said as this where you said you would start which I took to mean right now (completely senseless) or as soon as the season was over (merely partially senseless suggestions). I'm glad to see you already backtracking from some of the bad ideas in your earlier posts as readers look to find a few sensible nuggets. Certainly if you wish to provide a prescription that should be taken as rational then it needs to be more fully explained and put forward with the many caveats which reality will make necessary rather than putting ideas forward as obvious stone cold locks if only the people who are fortunate to be paid to spend to much time on this were as smart as those of us who spend too much time on this for no money. Specifically regardinfg some of your comments in this post: 1. Finding a sucker to take Bledsoe would be great but this involves someone else deciding to take an action which we cannot control. We need to plan on what we can do alone even if we don't find a Mike Lynn under some rock. After the NE debacle I was certainly set to cut Bledsoe as soon as was possible (which for us it will involve cap management pain even with delaying his cut to June 2005 and making him a cap casualty. However, the team has really stepped up in ST and D performance the last two weeks and shown that they can win laughers even on the road against playoff level teams even with Bledsoe playing badly. Further, the weakness of our remaining opponents makes it quite likely that this team will actually improve from last year's horrible record to at least 8-8, probably 9-7 and with incredible luck even 10-6. Sitll in my mind because Bledsoe's play beyond the threat he provides will not account for these wins I see this record as no reason to bank on him as our QB who will take us toward or to the SB. Still at 9-7 I think he can be a reasonable placeholder until our QB of the future gets ready and supplants him. The Bills need make no decision now and should wait until the reality of the rest of the season happens before making a decision on how to proceed for 2005. The QB decision will have to wait in terms of cuts until June 2005 anyway. The only decision at QB which needs to be made now is how do you develop JP to make the future come as quickly as it can. I agree that JP MUST play in order to develop. However, I flat out disagree with ICE that playing is the ONLY way he will improve. As best as I can tell JP still does not have adequate command and control of the Bills and NFL offenses and defenses not to hurt his development, build good chemistry with Evans and other Bills of the future and to win games (in the end this is what sells tickets and what MM was hired to do, one cannot toss this notion aside based on some plan and hope to develop the ability to win in the future, you have to balance this). I say start JP when he is ready and not a moment sooner or a moment later. I hope he plays well enough in garbage time and in practice that he merits a start this year when we are mathematically done. If not I know that he can play even if he is not starting and I would plan on doing as much as I can this year, but other QBs (Pennington, Brady) have developed into playoff capable QBs without ever starting and if JP is as good as we hope/think he is, the garbage time, whatever starts his quality of play dictates, playing at NFL speeds and against nFL level talents in practice, and playing in real games next pre-season will have to and can suffice. I hope we find a rube trade with but one cannot count on this and I develop JP as fast as I can and if he supplants Bledsoe with no starts in his second season as Brady did with Drew, takes over for him never having startes but a season earlier than Pennnington had next year I think this can work. 2. Troy Vincent is a medical performance issue- If he can come back and play at the level he was at when we signed him (or the downhill side of a Pro Bowl career) then fine. If McGee learns how to play NFL CB and Vincent is able to perform at S that is fine also. If he can't perform and needs to retire with an injury settlement so be it. However, we have needs and his cap hit will be too large in terms of dead space for a cut. 3. Schobel- you are right this is a non-issue. He is what he is. I think he and the LDEs need to be supplemented with a cap casualty DE who plays the same role Jim Jeffcoat played for us. This can be done practically and affordably. 4. I am also willing to say goodbye to Wire, but I have no animosity toward him because he did the best he could with GW using him for things he could not do and we have done a horrible job training him. I have no probelm keeping him at about the same cap management hit he has now but would not increase his salary when he becomes an FA. In terms of assessing his play he is not the starting safety we needed and proved subject to critical brain farts when we asked him to play an ST role he was never trained properly for. Yet, he is an important part of an ST this year which is a weapon for us. I do not pay gim more but have no problem with the output of the current ST Wire is big part of at its current cost. 5.

In order to keep information from enemy teams I want my team o keep secrets about injuries and even to lie about them as much as the rules allow. if keeping everyone in the dark or even backtracking completely on an injury report for Henry allows the Bills get more for him trade value then I say lie to me. The right to know is essential for me in terms of my government, but in terms of football entertainment my priority is to see my team get every advantage they can get. if it leaves me dumb about an issue then so be it.

The blackbear (I love this third person silliness) misses the point in that many of the cuts he would make of wasted money actually creates more dead space in terms of prorated bomuses which will cost the team Ws. Add to this the costs of finding adequate replacements and his pronouncements from on high (or wherever they come from) will simply result in a true waste of monet which will hurt our ability to get Ws. If you want further proof of how dead money from the bonus of cut players directly impacts Ws then look no further than the Pats cut of Bledsoe. The did the right thing as Brady was obviously the better choice and the need to increase Brady's contract to wrap him up as a Pats made it impossible to keep both. The effect of cutting Drew was that the Pats won an SB in the 2001 season. Absorbed the cap hit and could sign neither FAa or better back-ups and they comletely missed the playoffs in the 2002 season. Being free of this cap hit they went into the market and signed FAs like Rodney Harrison who were pivotal to them winning the SB in the 2003 season. When and whether you cut big bonus players like Bledsoe, Vincent, or Teague makes a difference which cannot be ignored in a serious conversation. Likewise, the costs of replacements and cap negotiation has a huge impact. The problem for the Bills with the RJ/Flutie mess was that Butler first attracted DF here by agreeing to an incentive laden contract which rolled incentives achieved into his base pay. He then signed RJ to a guaranteed deal which when RJ failed and ot hurt and DF played like we wanted him to, we ended up with a cap hit at the QB position far in excess of what even the top QB was paid. If you are calculating wasted money you have to take into account money guaranteed to a player even if he is cut because it directly impacts our ability to generate wins. Whos is the highest OL player by the Bills in 2004? Its Ruben Brown who contributes nothing on the field. Dead space matters to W/L.

Gambling is so verboten because there is no way you can know whether the comment that Rose's gambling had no effect on the game is true. Even if he bet on his team to win, it certainly effects the game if he attempts to run up the score one day to beat the line and the opponents get pissed and make the team pay on the field by playing harder or trying to injure folks the next. Besides, Rose alreay proved he was liar in saying he never bet on baseball when he did, how can one be sure that he is not lying when he says he never bet against the Reds or never subtly threw a game to settle his gambling debts. In the end, Pete Rose was required not to gamble or associate with gamblers so you and I can gamble on the game with some sense that it is predictable rather than like the NY Lotto. Pete Rose screwed his teammates, opponents, and you and me for his own benefit. Asking one to choose which of these two is worse is like choosing whether to kill your wife or your mother. Neither choice works nor does it make the other choice a good one.

ICE may play a doctor on television but believe me you and I don't. The concept of microfractures has been around for a while, but knowledge of their effects on an athlete's performance is still a new frontier of medical/athletic diagnosis as the MRI and other imaging technology is just beginning to catch up to ou ability to theorize causes and try to come up with fixes for fractures. Microfractures are just what they sound like which is very snall breaks in the bone or joint which for reasons beyond our understanding may be the cause of a player never regaining what we talk about as that extra step or extra gear in terms of speed. Though undetectable by most (if not all) current imaging (x-rays, cat (or CT) scans and MRIs, microfractures may actually be the cause of debilitating pain which stops a player from putting weight onto a bone (the body saying stop stressing an area so I can heal) or enough pain that a player can walk fine, but it flares up when he runs or cuts. The modern athlete may be performing at such a high level of torque and stress that this problem emerges for him and shows itself in that he simply cannot play like he used to. The "toughness" of a player CAN be a factor in this as the injury may be one which does not get worse but simply causes pain. However, pain has a purpose in the body as it is the way our body tells our brains not to do something. Though microfractures are tough or impossible to see, there can be evidence that the experienced eye can see and interpret that it is the cause. Its tough because players need to accurately report pain to the docs and the NFL way historically is to simply say put me in coach regardless of the pain. The WM call by Bills docs was an interesting case as virtually all NFL docs simply labeled him not worthy of a first round pick (given the unknown and their team needs) but the Bills docs seemed to infer from the tears WM suffered being relatively clean and in spots which can heal themselves that with appropriate diligence and time he could not only recover normally but do the quick moves that made him a good athlete. This dissertation all goes to say that simply indicting TV as a maligerer or a weenie is not as straight-forward as many fans would like. The facts are he has a history of production as shown by his INT numbers, respect from fellow players (opposing QBs in particular who chose not to go his way and opposing WRs who often paid for receptions over the middle), Pro Bowl selections (not a perfect measure at all but an indicator) and the respect of his colleagues as shown by his election as NFLPA president that he is not a malingerer or a weenie.

The Lindell question is an interesting question, but the fact there is any doubt at all that we need to get a new kicker is actually an advance for a player who was definite disappointment last year. I have seen a number of post recently which cited the need to replace Lindell with an FA as a top-priority need for the Bills. I think this may well be true but generally is based on his non-performance last year rather than an assessment of his play this year which does not yet prove he is a keeper but as you cite has done virtually everthing that has been asked of him. Specifically in terms of a kickers responsibilities: 1. Placekicking- This is the first and most prominent responsibility of a kicker and the cadillac performance the last couple of years has been Vanderjagt and Vinatieri as they are virtually automatic on anything 45 (even 50) yards in and give a team a fighting chance even if a plus 50 FG is needed in the waning seconds of a game. Lindell has simply not been called on to play this role for the Bills because generally the Bills have not gotten in FG range as often as we would like and when they do, MM has not shown the confidence in Lindell to try 40 plus FGs and has even punted a couple of times from yardage many fans find debatable. Nevertheless, in the few times Lindell has been used (16 as opposed to 29 times for Vinatieri so far and actually more than the 11 tries by Vanderjagt because Manning throws TDs when the team is in the redzone) he has been virtually flawless. Lindell's two misses this year if I recall correctly were on a very late in the half kick from long distance and on a makeable distance and it was actually dead on but the winds of the Ralph simply blew it straight down short of the mark. Last week's performance I found to be hopeful for Lindell and for MM. He tried a 53 yarder and seemed to have plenty of leg on it for distance though he missed wide left. Actually he was not credited with a miss because an unusual call was made on Seattle for a player jumping onto the back of a player (players are barred from this to stop these athletes from launching themselves up at a kick off another player) and the Bills took the penalty (erasing the miss) and drove on down where they scored. On another kick last weekend was makeable but beyond the range MM usually calls on Lindell and he actually put the kick through the uprights, but the Bills had called a TO and stopped the play essentially taking our points off the board. However, this lemon quickly turned to lemonade as the Bills instead lined up, Bledsoe did a great job of faking the sneak and WM ran and leaped for the TD. Rather than advocating cutting Lindell for his placekicking, I think that buoyed by the promise of some good stats when he is called on AND MM suddenly using him on long PKs, waiting to see if this establishes a trend in usage and success in the last 5 games is the purdent thing to do. Kick-offs- I would disagree with you when you assess Lindell as consistently dropping the ball within the opponents 5 as in my view he quite often does not do this. However, he does not seem to be asked to emphasize distance by Bobby April who instead seems to emphasize direction and hang time. The true measure of his performance is not where the ball is landing but how is the whole ST doing on coverage using the directional kicking of Lindell. Here the results have been nothing short of outstanding as the Bills rank in the top 5 in the NFL (by may understanding) in terms of kick coverage. I'm not sure whether this ranking is one of total return yardage or of drive starts. The second measure would be a better one in my mind because I do not really care if a team is holding opponents to 19 yards a return if they consistently kick it only to the opponents 20 (you might as well kick it OB as they would simply get a drive start at the 40 and at least you don't risk a longer return). I think the measure is drive starts and Lindell has hung the ball up to give the coverage team the time to get downfield and the ST boys have then made sure tackles to provide some great drive starts for the Bills. An extra important doo-dad in the kicking game featuring Lindell was the simply outstanding onside kick he made at the start of the second half of the Seattle game. This was a great call (April probably recommended it because he noted in film that Seattle did not use a "hands team" to prevent this and that they fell back quickly to form a wedge for the return rather than waiting to make sure the kick was away) and it was beautifully executed by Lindell and the team. They made it look easy but there were a number of things going on. Lindell had to kick it the requsite 10 yards before he could cover it. He had to run the fake like hewas going to kick it away and not tip off the opponents he was doing something different. He got between the opposing team and the ball to give himself the best chance at the recovery but not get in the way of the progress to 10 yards. Of great imporrt, not only could he not touch the ball before it went 10, but no Bills blocker could hit a Seattle player until the ball went 10 yards so the entire Bills team had to either have eyes in the back of their heads to set-up a hit but not do this until the ball traveled 10 yards or actually the 10 yards needed to be timed so that Lindell could recover it before a hit occured. This play really set the tone for the second half of the blow-out as Seattle was totally prepared in their mind to try to move the ball with their O to get back into the game and instead the D had to come out and fight for the team's life with the Bills having great field position. Its hard to praise Lindell too much for doing a great job here. I think this contrasts nicely with Seattle's kickoff to open the game. Josh Brown has a lot of leg, but he was frightened enough by the McGee threat that he tried for a directional kick to pin McGee on the sideline and instead booted it OB. The Bills got a headstart in the field position battle with a drivestart on their 40 and the Bills O capitalized (behind the passing game actually as WM had a non-productive yardage start) from there. The bottomline is that it is probably too early (the onside kick being the major exception) to dub Lindell a hero) but calls for his ouster are premature based on his performance. Certainly he has not been the weapon we want as a placekicker, but his performance in limited usage this year and his kickoffs means that if someone is calling for his cut, they need to have a specifc better alternative (Grammatica is available, where is Jake Ariens these days) or this call based on last year's horrible Lindell performance is fairly meaningless.

Its my understanding also that the rule is that if you sign a player off another team's PS, you must activate him to your 53 man playing roster. The rules can relatvely quickly change as the growing partnership between the NFL and NFLPA negotiates redefinitions and fine-tunings, but it seems more likely that between 10/15 and recently the Giants cut him from their PS to stockpile back-ups at some other position where they had injuries or used more frequently than their FB. The need is still there to stop teams from raiding each others PS to get intelligence about upcoming opponents and then to simply cut the player.

Wasn't that Rob Trafford TE who was the surprise non-resign?

Actually the word I have heard is that though we have the good news he is practicing thise week he still will not play until the next week against Cleveland. In the end, Vincent has a real world record of getting INTs at a far greater rate than our CBs in a great but turnover starved defense. He was voted head of the NFLPA because he commands the respect personally of his teammates and NFL athletes. Further he has a multi-year contract and we cannot manage the cap hit of cutting him. In addition McGee has earned our love as a Bill due to his outstanding ST play, but his CB play is still a total adventure out there as he learns the game. At his worst the best thing you can say about his CB play is that getting eaten alive by Santana Moss did not cost us that game and thank gosh the ref didn't call him for interference last weekend. Even if McGee learns how to play CB adequately in the last 5 games and the next pre-season, then there still is a need for him as a safety (Baker has been good for two games but it is just two games and now opponents have some tape for finding his weaknesses and we will see how he adjusts to that) and the pass happy NFL will bring us a few 4 wide sets. Vincent will almost certainly be a Bill next year if he wants to be and this Bills fan and football watcher is quite happy about that.

The braintrust obviously has more trust in Matthews not making mistakes that cost the D and the ST the game than they have in a rookie not making mistakes. Given that the JP learning curve has seen him fail to tuck the ball away properly and fumble and throw an INT when he was thrown to the wolves in NE, and seen him have no control and command of the game and get a delay of game right away in Seattle, I can't blame them for making this assessment as not-ready-for-primetime as I think Matthews to be. The Bills have made JP the #3 on the roster specifically because they know he needs to play to develop, but he has not yet mastered the parts of the game which make a rookie a vet so that they trust him to play except when the game is out of hand for or agin us. Unless JP does something in practice that builds the confidence of the braintrust, I expect he will be #3 again and him playing will have to wait until the 4th quarter and once he plays neither of the two QBs listed above him can then play. The how much time question really depends upon it being a blow-out. Given that over-confidence is probably our biggest enemy right now I would not predict for Losman more than a couple of series and probably one of thise will consist of him kneeling down. Last week was a great bonus for him because he showed with the delay of game his work needs are pretty basic. In addition I disagree with ICE on the laughable notion that any of us couch potatoes could have done JPs work last week and also I think it was quote useful in eradicating the stink of the NE game for him to QB the Bills to a score even if it involved variations of 3 plays (hand off to WM to the right, hand off to WM going left, and hand-off to WM going up the middle. A key thing he needs right now and the team needs in him is confidence. Handing off to WM for a TD provides a good start in building that. Nothing suceeds like sucess!

Bill, I think you are right that injuries often decide the season and what will happen (for example, the injury to Pennington seemed to wipe out the Jets whole season last year and all the prognosticating was even more worthless than the usual zero it adds up to). This facor shouldn't make the NFL watcher and certainly not the NFL paid professional throw up their hands and say what's the use. Winning and doing well is so often determined by a decision on what your plan B is. Plan B made all the difference in the world for the Pats as Bledsoe went down and darned if Brady didn't step up and play and luck his way into performing better than anyone thought he would of (first, Brady is extremely extremely good, but no one can deny that the Pats winning the SB lays a lot on the refs call on the fumble/incompletion that easily could have and many argue should have gone the other way, further the most partisan of Pat fans may claim that Belichick had it planned to happen the way it did all along..yeah right). I think the Bills had two crucial failings this year, 1. They re-signed Bledsoe as their starting QB when in my view he is at the end of his career and cannot win without a Parcellian or Belichickian HC effort and the rookie Mularkey was not going to do that, and 2. Travis Brown was never a reasonable plan B even before he was hurt and neither was the rookie Losman so we were left with Bledsoe as are only option when there was nothing he was going to do to lead us past an O-4 start or to win crucial divisional road games against the Jets and Pats. As far as the specifics of your question as to whether we will see Dre start in 05. I think you are right because the schedule against teams with a losing record should allow us to finish at least 8-8 probably 9-7 and potentially 10-6 andthat should be good enough to win Bledsoe the start. I think JPs play in mop-up action or if his practice performance and the Bills getting eliminated early conspire to get him a start (a lot of IFs) and he does well then he will likely go into pre-season camp with a pretty good shot at taking the starting job for the first game of 2005 (even another IF so those who see him being our starter in 2005 from the start I would not hold my breath if I were you as I think you will get very blue). In the end, I think the determining factor for MM and the gang will be who do they think will help them win right now. Even if you feel certain that JP playing now will make him better quicker in the future, MM's pride and job rest on him winning now and not winning later and he will do what he has tio do to give him the best chance to wir right now rather than developing a player to win 6 months from now.

According to a Miami Herald story, Thomas has a hamstring tear which showed up on an MRI and will miss two games. The Herald stated this loss came at the worst possible time as the Fins were slated to face McGahee and then Denver's running attack. They also referenced that injury has knocked out DT Bowens, Seau and another LB Chester. It sounds like a potential running feast for the Bills up the middle.

The whole PS thing createsan interesting dance in terms of teams cutting players and leaving them exposed to better offers which I woul suspect involves a few under the table deals and a fair amount of winking and nudging between teams and players as they work to maximize their individual interests. The Bills did cut Peters and expose him to better offers, but I suspect few or none came to him as other team's were wondering why we cut him and had to balance signing him against whatever other development projects they were committed to and whatever logjam or needs they had at TE. In addition, the Bills almost certainly communicated to him and other players cut what their rationale for doing so was and whether they wanted to offer an possibility or probability that they would resign this player to the PS. If the Bills gave Peters a strong message that they wanted tio bring him back after the waiver period to the PS, he may well no have taken or taken seriously calls from other teams. A visit seems to be an objective and tangible sign we can see of whether a team is truly interested in a player as they have at least committed to a plane ticket for him. By rule a player must be cut and then he cannot be resigned for 24 hours by the team which cut him to the PS and this allows the players to solicit and receive other offers. Generally i think these offers rarely come because the teams know the few players they would want and their teams do not let them go, if they do they have given the cut player as many assurances as they can give him they will sign him back and this bird in the hand is enought to stop the player from going elsewhere. When a player is on the PS he actually can simply be signed by another team, however, if he is signed he must go onto the active roster. This stops teams from signing a guy just to pump him for info about an upcoming opponent andthen cutting him when they are done with him. The idea that Peters was activated because another team was expressing interest in signing him off the Bills PS is interesting and possible. The idea that he asked to be made a tackle because he thought he had a better chance of making the team that way is interesting as well. I can see the former as potentially happening because Peter's skills are known around the league as he was a potential draftee and the Bills actions are testimony that though he isn't there yet he is worth the work. The tackle theory is possible but I think unlikely as I think guard where there is no one on the depth chart behind Villarial is the most likely OL position to break through on right now and if intellectual analysis is not Peter's strong suit, him successfully making this case may have happened but seems unlikely.

Thanks to Toledo Bill for asking this questiion, it is threads like this that contain real information about a player and his history (rather than old-saw and untrue in many cases platiitudes) that makes TSW great. One set of additional factoids regarding Losman's college career is that he took over a program and produced wins being QB for Tulane in 2002 and 2003 which has NFL QB Patrick Ramsey running the Tulane O and earning himself a 1st round pick. I think this factoid about JP's college career MAY be significant for a number of reasons: 1. Though no one would mistake Tulane for being a QB mill, the fact they produced two 1st rounders at the position in a row means that JP was probably trained by folks who knew how to prepare a QB. 2. All reports and the fact Tulane has to us the shotgun substantiate the sense that JP had to run for his life behind a porous line, but clearly Tulane had other weapons that both Ramsey and JP used well so one should not make the assumption he did it all on his own or completely surrounded by players who were as bad as his OL apparently was. 3. He came into a situation where the team was used to a high level of play from the QB and JP clearly fit well into this mold though he did not create it himself. I think all these points may well be important in assessing the development situation JP finds himself in and how he reacts to it.

In addition to any mental deficiencies he has in terms of absorbing the playbook and effectively communicating and co-ordinating with his teammates, apparently on the good side was his receiving game where he showed impressive athleticism for a big man and great hands. However, this was balanced by some blocking problems which meant he was a half a TE (though the Bills have dealt well with the problem before as they found a way to combine the good receiving skils of Remeirsma with the blocking skills of Friggin Lonnie to somehow make for having the appropriate TE for the approppriate play without telegraphing whether we had a run or pass play called). The fact he has made the actiive roster speaks 1. He is such a speedy big guy with soft hands this part of his game cannot be denied. 2. He has advanced and solved some of the blocking deficits (though his failure to report in as a TE despite his having a tackle number may indicate that he still is an enchilada short of a combination platter mentally). The fascinating thing about his development is that he is on the active roster as a tackle. Does this mean he has suddenly developed into such a blocking demon that he has become one of the best 53 s a blocker? Does this mean that we are willing to take his soft hands and pass catching skills out of the game ourselves by using him as a tackle rather than a TE? I doubt both of these. My guess is that his receiving skills are still what got him here, but he still has some blocking shortcomings that the Bills have chosen to train him beyond by putting him on the roster and depth chart as a tackle. but they use him as a TE (hence his brainiac faux pas Sunday). I he gets the blocking side of the game down, I think the Bills hope that he can become the new Ben Coates (or at least the new Butch Rolle) as a TE. It was interesting that apparently he was in for as many as 10 plays Sunday which is a lot of work so they clearly plan to use this man as a player.

You are correct to praise Bill for correctly and fully siting the cap/Wyche issues which will make the Bills tend toward starting JP rather than simply reciting some false dictum that a 1st round drafted QB must start his first year. However, the cap issues (and the development issues) cut both ways and because TD re-signed Bledsoe to a deal I disagreed with it also creates some tendency to want to keep him and start him in 2005. Fortunately, reality should determine what will happen. If JP is ready to start he will start as soon as our QB of the future is ready to do so. If JP is not ready to start (any by this I mean that his demonstrated to Wyche primarily understanding and control of the game would result in hindering his development and that of the rest of the team) then he will sit. It strikes me that TD set up the Bledsoe deal with the plan and hope that he would lead this team to a better performance (and it is to be hoped back then the playoffs) in 2004 and that JP would develop quickly so that at the very least he wuld pressing Bledsoe to start in 2005 even with Bledsoe doing well. Instead, JP proving it on the practice field and in brief in game showings has been delayed by his injury (though ironically if JP played it right the injury will increase the speed of his development because it gave him a unique chance to focus on Wyche and the game). If the Bills finish 8-8 (likely) or better. there will be a balancing cap pressure to dance with the one who brung you (Bledsoe) if folks judge him as providing a better shot to win the next game than giving JP a development opportunity for the future. The thing I object to in your conclusions is the continual treatment of the outcome as a stone-cold lock which must happen. If Bledsoe and the Bills win he starts regardless of JPs development progress or needs. If Bledsoe and the Bills lose then JP will be rushed along unfortunately regardless of his development progress or needs. Reality has provided us with a fine balance right now in that Bledsoe and the Bills are winning. JP has been hot and cold at best in his development. I think that if the Bills implode over the next 5 games (regardless of whether its Bledsoe's fault or not), then JP is the starter (regardless of his development needs and status). If the Bills do moderately well (miss the playoffs but finish around 9-7) I think Bkledsoe starts but JP will have a definite shot and reps in pre-season next year to take the starters job. I think if the Bills run the table this year (making the playoffs or not) then Bledsoe starts in 2005 and though JP is the QB of the future the future is not now. Reality matters.

TE- I agree that the Bills have not yet had sufficient production at TE, I just disagree that this will be a priority area for the Bills to spend resources on in the draft, FA or trades unless the prefect TE is available for next to nothing in price. If you know some specific target by name I'm all eyes. Instead, i think the Bills will explore and MM will try to use his TE experience to develop Euhus (who they believe in and I doubt have given up on), Campbell (who has done all he can do in my view in terms of development but the braintrust will hang their hat on his stand-out game against StL), and Peters who has speed and soft hands and they are desperately emphasizing improving his blocking and brainpower (forgetting to declare his number Sunday was typical of his rep). My guess TE investment if it happens will be for another low cost project rather than it being a top priority. CB- cutting Vincent will result in a cap hit for Vincent who was signed to a multi-year deal and given this cost and the fact that we still have DB need I do not see this happening. McGee is a great Bill, but first because of ST talent and second because he is an INT looking guy (2 INTs which ties for team lead and 1 fumble recovered) on a team which desperately needs to increase turnover creation. However, this comes at a cost of him getting burned at least once a game big time (or for the entire game as he was against Santana Moss). McGee will get better with time but he is far from the lockdown corner we are looking for. If McGee should develop, the logical move is to put Vincent at FS. First.Baker has been great but 2 good games are too early to declare him the FS we want and need. Opposing players now have some tape on him and will more directly try to exploit weaknesses in his game and how he deals with this will tell a lot of the tale. Vincent may have a rep as injury prone among your buddies, but he clearly had a rep which earned him multiple Pro Bowl starts and stats as opportunistic om INTs that are simply the fact and at worst should not be overlooked because of your buddie's opinions. His rep, the cap costs and our likely needs at FS or CB make him a Bill next year. DT- Edwards simply has not done the job as a starter since he was drafted (hi first year he didn't even do the job as a player and was mostly inactive despite the Bills havinf gaping holes at DT with super sub Sean Moran pressed into a starting role he could not fill. Rather than deeming Edwards as a starting talent based on some great play as a sub this year, I'm afraid that this performance may have as much to do with him knowing that he had to allocate his energy and effort over a 10 plays a game rather than 30. Until we see him in a full game there is no good reason to assume that his great play as a sub translates into adequate play as a starter. The Bills may still be forced to let PW walk because I don't think an older player is worth mortgaging our cap on. However, if this is the case, i think we fall back on the hope that early draft pick Tim Anderson can step up (unfortunately I see nothing from him as a reserve and hear nothing out of practice that this is the case) and start or more likely that he and Edwards can split the role so Edwards allocates his energy and effort over playing 50% of the game rather than 80% of the game.

It depends on the cap implications which I don't know, The Charger's already look dumb for investing in their QB of the future while their QB of the past plays well. The main way they will look even dumber is if they let one go and he stars while the one they keep totally tanks. In general I would think you win by being aggressive and shooting for what you think will work rather than by trying to avoid looking bad. however, they already look really stupid this year and to make the wrong move would make them look so galactically stupid, you have to take downsides into account. That being said: 1. If I can truly afford both of them I keep both of them. I will better be able to assess Rivers' development next year and for a brief period in time I still can trade Brees if Rivers looks good. Assuming Rivers develops I stand more of a chance of not missing a best with the transition. Unfortunately, I have tio franchise Brees to keep him but because I made the drafting error it's no going to be perfect whatever I do. Since I have two starting QBs I have no starting QB and doing the gnarly difficult job (which the Bills are actually doing right now) of trying to develop the youngster while sticking with the vet is the cost of being stupid in the draft. 2. If I can't afford or do not want to pay both , then it comes down to looking Rivers' in the eye and assessing how I think he will do and how much he wants to be here. Keeping Rivers is probably the good financial choice and you franchise Bress and try to arrange some trade and sign deal and I do this unless I now assess that I made a huge error in drafting him in the first place which I think Rivers' showed too much talent in college for this to be the case.

I think it depends on Losman's development and then Bledsoe's reaction to how he develops. Losman is clearly the Bills QB of the future and his development will determine whether the future begins in 2005 or 2006. My guess (and like other posters despite their assertions this is only a guess, I suspect Losman has profited from his enforced non-playing time to view the games from up above and to get a good download from Wyche. Since I assume he put time he could not practice to good use, his development may well be speeded up by him having more of a vets sense of which plays work best for the Bills and what defenses will try to do and where they are vuknerable when they try. Like all rookies, NFL speed is really different and though they face NFL quality players in practice you can feel him in his brief garbage time appearances working to get a feel for the game. Based on the success he had in leading the team to a rushing TD should help him with his confidence and command of the pocket and team. I think ICE is wrong in his thought that JP learned nothing in the game against Seattle because all he did was hand-off. He knows how to throw, he knows how to run for his life and react under pressure. If we needed him to learn how to hit a receiver we'd be done for. The thing which rookies seem to learn from playing the game is how to communicate far more complicated plays than they worked with in college and plays sent in over NFL headsets clearly and succinctly to their teammates. They learn how to read opposing Ds in the heat of a game and learn how the center is thinking when he makes line calls. All these things are happening in garbage time and on running plays the same as the are happening at the start of games. I suspect JP in mop-up time or in practice will begin to show what he can do and we will go into the next training camp with a serious potential that Bledsoe and JP are competing for the job. Rven if Bledsoe wins this competetion and starts (a good possibility actually given the roll the Bills are on and a fairly weak schedule they are facing) its just a matter of time until JP wins the job sometime next year.

The formst you provide is good and much of the content is good now that you are once again abandoning some of your past stone cold lock predictions for more rational stances. Its good to see on some of the particulars mentioned below, but then again you haven\t developed a rep for taking multiple positions for nothing. Jim McNally- Agreed he has talent and who would reasonably expect less from someone who has been an OL coach for years and suceeded in nursing and building a moderate talent NYG OL into a group which was a key to them getting to the SB. He seemed to not only motivate MW into becoming more like the player he should be with carrots such as him getting a gameball for his play at RT but sticks like threatening to move MW to LG. He obviously prodded MW and fooled fans like yourslf into conjuring up an outside speed rush problem for MW when his problems have been coordination with the RG and stunts rather than problems with the outside rush. The main thing I think his success shows is how stupid GW was to think that OL coaching newbies like Vinky and Ruel could do the job. Its great to have an adult at this position TE- I agree with you that this is a big problem with this O, but disagree that it will be a number one priority for acquisition unless we have a shot without reaching for him at the second coming of Ben Coates. My sense is that the Bills have more of an interest of a project in this area who can become great rather than expending valuable resources here. Instead, I think the first priority will be to develop one of three internal options- Euhus- he's just a rookie and has shown some signs of talent though he is nowhere near demonsrating breakout potential. Still they spent significantly to get him and I don't see the Bills doing what they did with Denney/Kelsay (spend a big pick on him and turnaround and spend another big pick on the same position the next year). MM has too much faith in his experience as a TE to spend two picks on the one position, they'll try to make it work with Euhus. Campbell- He is not the threat we want, but his play has merited the late pick we spent on him and games like the one against StL will stop us from making TE a priority. Peters- It was his speed and soft hands which won him a place on the PS and his blocking ability was the problem. Yet he has made the squad as a tackle though the Bills do use him as a TE (as seen by the boner Sunday when he failed to declare). My sense is that they are trying to train him that he must emphasize his blocking if he wants to remain with the team and if he does they can unleash this project as a TE. RB. This whole game is silly, Henry's true value is not some absolute but will be determined by the market. The market will be determined by who gets signed who could be an FA and additional injuries. Even better for the Bills we have him under contract for a year at a cap friendly price and can sit on him if we choose to. I don't know whose mind you are reading to say Henry will definitely be a cancer or whether Doctor ICE has once again read the tea leaves and knows exactly how hurt or not hurt Henry is. I also expect him to get traded, but for a conditional pick tied to how many games he appears in that protects everyone from reality. The pruority for the Bills wil actually not necessarily to get a draft pick for him but to land a solid back-up RB in case WM gets hurt again. I see Burns as a fine ST guy and a good 3rd string back, but if he gets promoted to number 1 because WM goes down. our bread-and-butter the run game is done. We may well resign Henry if the market allows or look for the next Eddie George or Emmit Smith cao casualty who is readt to back-up WR. An $8 million annual cap hit would move Moulds from the #6 salary to #1 above the current salaries of players such as Moss, Harrison, etc. Something has got to happen here and it probably will be the TD magic of having him reduce his cap hit in exchange for pro-rated bonus which is guaranteed money. You are right that who knows what will happen, but it is in both the Bills and Moulds interest to take the bird in the hand here. Pat williams- I also think he is gone, but I suspect the Bills will want Anderson to step up rather than Edwards though there is no outside sign of this yet. The wild card in this is that apparently he and Sam Adams have this thing and it was crucila to bringing Adams here. It works bot ways because if Adams example of taking less money to make the PW/SA thing work forestalls PW from using this FA shotto ash in, then perhaps the two of them prevail upon TD to keep this potent duo intact. LB. I have also seen flashes of brilliance from Posey which perhaps get overshadowed by Spikes/Fletcher's performance and presence. Yet, I think we had hopes that he would step up to the level of those two and he hasn't, Crowell, Hafggan and Stamer are all ST stalwarts so perhaps there will be less change here than out expectations and hopes for Posey might create. CB.- McGee is a real adventure out there who contributes greatly to this team on ST, but he needs a bad QB to have him be the corner we want, He gets INTs but he can be burned as Moss did and it was by the grace and goofiness of the refs that he didn't take a major interference penalty early in the game. He will improve over time but he is at the nickel CB level right now. Safety, Two games is not enough for me to be sold on Naker yet. He hss done bettr than Reese but that ain't saying much. McGee maturing quickly and Vincent coming over is a better bet to me than this rookie being the real deal. ST's Morman Nuff said Lindell has continued the folly of TD falsely claiming good kickers are a dime a dozen. Yet, he showed good power on a miss from 53 that was long enough and didn't count because they cheated and he put one through that we took off the board with a TC. Was this a sign that he can do it or was it because ge was psycheed to go against his old team. We'l see. Coaching- April, Clements and the growth of Gray are the prime evidence of GW not being ready for primetime. QB- I will not pass over this one. The last two weeks have got me reconsidering Bledsoe. No I don't think he will ever win games for the Bills, but I am getting more confidence in MM that he and Clements might actually be able to grow beyond being a rookie HC and OC and pull off the job that Parcells and BB did by not depending on Bledsoe and using him as a threat in order to win. If JP learns the game(he showed getting thrown to the wolves in NE and with hsi delay f game that he is not ready to start yet. What I hope happens and seems more likely now is that though Bledsoe's cap hit is to high for a starter, the combined cap hits of Losman and BLedsoe are fine. If Losman is ready to start I keep Bledsoe who is under contract and incredibly unlikely to become a cancer. If JP needs to sit some more then I cut Bledsoe after June 2005 and look elsewhere.

At last some sense of reality. So by the example you cited it would be fine for you if JP started 0 games this year and started 14 of 16 next year. My guess is that my mantra of start him when he is ready to start would even be more aggressive than this example from the real world as it wouldn't shock me if he is ready to start and would profitably develop from starting later this year. It also strikes me that it would be quite normal for him and his development not to log a start this year, but with the learning through play at garbage time this year, a full off-season where I would love to Sam Wyche adopt him, a full pre-season unblemished by injury, he might be ready to start and win next season. Again, I agree that playing is essential. The oddity to me is why you for some reason think that starting is the only way JP can play. He can play and valuable development in garbage time in games and has done so twice in recent weeks. You might argue that playing mop-up is valueless without the preparation of practice to get ready, but this would also seem to contradict your assertion that playing is the only way to get better which relegates practice and off-field preparation to meaninglessness. I can understand why you do not wish to pursue your line of thinking in depth or much beyond the hidebound platitudes you right because one does not have to explore your arguments very far to run into some big contradictions.