Fake-Fat Sunny

If a TE steps up we will certainly break the all important 33 points scored barrier. TE play most important? Among the variety of more important aspects of the game which folks have already listed, I'd add that the front four needs to supply a pass rush without forcing us to blitz to harass the QB, a bit less craziness in some of the ball handling we do, and for Bledsoe to continue to manage games well since he is not going to win them with his play as being far more important than TE play.

If there ever was a set-up for a trap game its flying across country during Christmas week to face a team with the league's worst record. We need to keep in mind that SF players will be playing for their pride, for jobs or with their Mom sitting in the stands as she is in CA for the holidays. Our boys need to eat their cheeseburgers and strap it on for this game and not look ahead to next week against Pittsburgh or that game may not matter much at all.

I am officially senselessly throwing up a prediction that Jax will amazingly either lose to Houston or Oakland at home and as we win out we will make the playoffs. Who cares that logically Jax should win out? I'm a fan and there is no demand that I have any common sense when my team is involved!!!!!

Perhaps unfortunately, but this is just the type of consideration that needs to be made when trying to figure out whether a player will stay put or not and whether he is worth keeping. It will be very interesting to see what the market has to offer Jennings and thus what the Bills will have to pay to keep him. In addition to teams like the Ravens who have committed top 10 OL dollars to tackles like Ogden, there are also teams like NYG or the Packers who have committed large contracts below the top 10 OL cap hits to LTs like Clifton and Petitgout. When one adds to that number teams which may have an LT opening but have salary cap constraints on the team like large contractual commitments to players like Micheal Vick and Peerless Price. I'm not at all clear what type of market the Bills will be competing in to hang onto Jennings. Certainly Jennings will be desirable, but other better LTs like Orlando Pace will be on the market and if you are a team with big bucks to spend on an LT that the Bills can't compete with I'd be more interested in Pace than in Jennings. FA will mean big bucks for Jennings and more money than he has ever seen before, but if some team is willing to offer him top 10 OL money, then I wish him luck and move on. Jennings is good but does not strike me as worth top 10 OL money which the best LTs have been able to get (current franchise cap hit for OL is $7 million and transition hit is $6 million). It depends on our budget, but i would not be willing to go above the salary that players like Petitgout and Clifton have gotten by hitting the FA market at the right time at LT, and it would not surprise me if he could be had for even less. If someone has some other idea, to speak credibly they need to not merely assert that Jennings is such and such a quality as a player, but actually identify some competing teams, what their cap avaiabiltiy is and why they are going to devote that budget to Jennings rather than improving themselves in some other area (for example, if I'm AT maybe I let Vick steamroll me into getting him some more protection, but I think that in order for that team to get better they need to invest in their D so they stop teams like the Panthers from sending the game into OT.

Many thanks fpr the guidance and I will review the tape with this in mind. My guess is that JMac will likely make some significant changes in our OL personnel because even though the performance is improved over the Viklarek/Ruel era (error) the OL production is not good enough. The run blocking has been quite productive with WMs skills, but today is a clear reminder that it is far from sufficient (even if WM escapes further injury). Like most teams and QBs, the pass pro production would be improved with a more mobile QB, but again given the need to be able to produce for a QB with Bledsoe's arm/ legs and brain they need to get better. The key will probably be what the market provides in terms of hanging on to Jennings. I would not be surprised to see us resign him because there is no blockbuster deal for him in the market. AT is where he wants to go, but my guess is that between the Vick deal, a big FA expenditure for PP, and the fact they are doing quite fine with what they got (all teams can get better, but if I'm AT I think I get better by strengthening my D so NYG doesn't force our Vick led O to save our necks in OT, but then Vick sells tickets and promotes the team and if he tells Balnk he won;t be happy unless they get him an LT, then they get him an LT even if D help is what their team needs), and most teams have already blown their cap allications on LTs (even expensive but doable buys aren't in the top 10 OL salaries) I would not be shocked to see Jennings market be for a substantial raise but for far less than the top 10-15 LT salaries. If Jennings fits our budget and stays then it gives us the flexibility to try to move MW to LG if JMac views out OL as performing better with him there. However, of Jennings goes, then I certainly think MW will be given the longest possible look at actually making the jump to LT or he will simply stay at RT, rather than making two openings for us as tackle by moving MW to LG.

I don't see this happening, I will have to go back and review his performance today, but I would doubt from the overall game stats that his play today would cause any radical contract shift (any balloon bonus for him is long been part of the salary cap budget and even onconsistent play from him will not cause us to freak out and abandon him as a player). The bottom line for the team in assessing him as far as today will correctly start with the fact we won comfortably and regardless who you give credit for this win to or blame for the failings, radical shifts in thinking do not tend to occur after big wins. As far as today, the fault will be found with the OL for failing to block effectively for the running game and for the two sacks on Drew )he got pressured by the rush a couple of times but also got more than ample time to throw a couple of times and the overall pass pro assessment will be not good but not bad. As far as the run failutes they seemed to be across the board and it wasn't like we had huge success on the left side so it is hard for me to see how MW draws any particular blame here. The two sacks were both by Powell whio I think was generally an interior assignment rather than an MW problem but I will review the tape for stunts and switches. MW has been inconsistent this year, but the trend line is that the inconsistency consisted of him sucking this summer and early in the season and performing much better as the season progressed. Why this adds up to moving him to LG makes no sense to me. His problems have not generally been athletic or agility issues despite his huge weight, but they have been mental problems as he failed to coordinate well with Pacillo last year and he reacted to a death in the family in an improfessional manner this off-season. Switching him to a new position would seem more likely to enhance his mental problems and will result in a gain in his physical play which is illusory. The other issue regarding today is that he is coming off an injury which knocked him out of the game last week and cost him practice time this week. While this does not forgive lack of performance, my guess is the braintrust will judge any problems as being improved by keeping him healthy rather than judging them to be problems to be solved by some switch of positions.

What is your thought here? I assume you are impressed with the great play shown by Peppers, but we had no chance at him as he was taken second overall in the draft that year and Carolina clearly had their eye on Peppers and were not going to trade that pick no way no how. In retrospect which is always 20/20 the mistake the Bills made on the DL was switching away from a 3-4 scheme which had been employed successfully by the Bills for years under Cottrell to a 4-3. Sure the bulwarts of the 3-4 Hansen to retirement, Wiley to FA and big Ted (and even BS a year earlier) were gone as cap casualties so a renewed 3-4 would have been spotty, but this situation was made even worse by GW insisting on his scheme rather than building a D to fit the player talents we had,

In the Bills that is!!!! One of the great things for me as a sports fan is that psychosis that consumes me that against all logic and against past experience I have to believe in my team and its ability come heck or high water to win the big one or win it all. Perhaps it is from growing up in Chicago in the 60s and my psychotic fascination with sports coming to a boil in 1969. Like most kids, my sports allegiances first revolved around who was good. As a youngster whose only real job was to learn and to seek independence at the same time as I sought security from those around me I became a Cub fan. The 69 Cubs were good and had put together a lead on the second place Mets by August that most pundits were fitting the Cubs for World Series rings and uniforms. The Cubs were good so this was a candidate for my team. My family had only a passing interest in sports with my Mom being a school teacher and she didn't dislike sports but saw its primary value in being a way to get elementary school kids to understand fractions as they figured out batting averages. Dad was a baptist minister and the primary value of baseball over football was that the congregants always ran home from church to see the game. I lived on the southside, so actually by being a Cub fan, I could be a bit different from the crowd while still getting the confirmation of the community and the media. I wasn't set to fully rebel against my parents yet so differing from the community noem in sports allegiance gaveme a way ti be acceptably different. At any rate, this perfect storm of quality play, independence, and confirmation came set a trend for me as my beloved Cubs defied the laws of physics and sports by going belly-up to the Amazin Mets that year. This began a steady trend of me seeing the Cubs in spring training and calculating how they might go 162-0 this year but noting I had been burned before and was not going to fall for it this yea. The Cubs would usually start like barn burners and be dueling for 1st place in the spring, but I would not the past and say I wasn't going to fall for it this time. The (usually on a west cost trip) they would go on a tear and spring into first place at some point early in the summer. YES! YES! I would say! This year we're going to do it. At some point we would flame out and I would say NNNNNOOOOOOOOO! Yet, I'd do it again the next year. After awhile though, I begin to find that I liked it (for example, the Cubs blowing a trip to the WS two years ago with an implosion in the League Championship Series was all my fault. I was careful in conversations with my friend Geoff who also developed a strong belief in the Cubs as a child of the 60s/70s, not to count my chickens before they hatched. He is now located in some remote outpost in NM with lousy TV reception and when he lefty his job, he lost his cable-TV hook-up. I agreed that IF the Cubs made the WS I would tape all the games for him and send them to him. I studiously avoided buying the blank tapes until the Cubs were actually in the Series (my wife weighs the house each morning and detects the presence of extra videotapes cluttering up her clean home so I needed a clear story as to why any discrepancies were temporary in order to escape "the look"). Seeing as how I was at the store with the tapes and there was no way the Cubs could miss the series given a 3-1 lead and our two best pitchers (Prior and Wood) next in the rotation I made the mistake of prematurely buying the tapes. You saw what happened. I blame myself as pride goeth before a downall. So what does this have to do with the Bills. This team started 0-4. This team has a rookie HC. This team has a QB folks refer to as the statue. This team needs to win out AND see an incredibly unlikely convergence of events to make the playoffs. YOU GOTTA BELIEVE! The essence of being a good fan is believing in your team against all logic. The Bills have earned our loyalty with a history marked by incidents such as the Home-Run Throw-uP and the probably never to be repeated 4 SB losses in a row. The Bills have earned our loyalty ironically by digging themselves such a deep hole with the 0-4 start that only the near miraculous play of the last month could give them even a snowball's chance with a lot of help of making the playoffs. You gotta believe because this insanity is what us fans do. I am certainly prone to overly verbose posts as I seek to fnd some logical explanation for that which defies logic. In the end, it all comes down to: YOU GOTTA BELIEVE and I do in the Bills. What a great ride this past month has been and it only holds the promise to get even better if (WHEN) the Bills win out. There are three games left in the regular season and they each pose their own challenges to make a loss in the game not illogical. However, this is this week and in the end as a fan YOU GOTTA BELIEVE!!!!!!!!!!

The thing I find really funny is how much like my parents (or is it granparents) I beginning to sound like as I get older. I also detest rap music, but I also remember my parents not considering the rock I listened to in the 70s to be music and I suspect that my grandparents also found that this Elvis Presley guy to not be music either. I think one of the main selling points for Tupac, Eminem, or whomever fans is that folks like me do not consider it music. I guess if I was really opposed to it, I and my generation would like it and say so which would probably kill it in a minute.

Actually its a lot more complicated than you depict it as being an an examination of the individual games shows it. 1. The best evidence of the theme which started this thread of good blitz pick-up by the RBs being the key to the winning streak is not so much a straightforward assessment that WM can d it and Travis can't but actually its that WM also struggled in blitz pick-up early in the season during our 1-4 start when we were losing and an increase in his ability to do this job coincided with the streak and him gaining yardage as well. However, my sense is that actually the imporvement in WM;s nliyz pick-up ability and us winning did coincide but there is little cause and effect here. 2. Henry's best running performance as when he almost put up 100 (98 yards I think in 20 or so carries) against the Pats, but his performance was not central for the most part to the game performance of the team instead of W/L. If his bad play is so critical then when he plays well it should show up in some way. 3. Its good you mention crucial plays because reasonable analysis ad explanation of the game results should include some description of the timing of critical plays. For example, in the above mentioned NE game, we hung with them pretty well for over three quarters and then things fell apart with a critical turnover returned for a TD by Seymour. It was Bledsoe's fumb;e but if you want to find fault with TH then he appeared to run the wromg way on the handoff which coincided with the funble but this will never appear on the stat sheet. Tje key to the Bills getting the best trade value for Henry will be that potential trade partners will likely not assess his career by this season by his total career. From his Pro Bowl appearance for the 2002 season to a gutsy perfornmance where he gained almost 1300 yards despite playing through a fracture bone I think it is pretty clear that he does not suck as a player. The key to him scoring a big payday and the Bills getting good value for him is whether he can play at all this year. If he plays and performs folks will be put at greater ease about injury and his downturn this year will likely be attributed to him going into a bit of a funk as it was clear that WM was going to be the man here. I would think anyone who wants the Bills to do well from dumping him would root for this to occur. It clearly can if his play returns to the form which saw him put u[ yardage numbers near or above 1300 yards as a runner, sawhim catch over 40 passes in 2002 and saw him do an adequate job on blitz pick-up based on what I observed the last two years.

The key thing to note about the relativegood days these RBs hadwas that the real inconsistency as far as run stuffing these two was in the difference in how we handled them by halves. Of the 85 yards Taylor put up most of this came in the first half as Gray and the D shut down the Ravens in the second half. Likewise against Miami as Morris seemed well on his way to putting up 100 yarfs rushing but adjustments were made that held him to I think about 8 yards in the second half. I think that our D performance the last few games (the first half debacle against the Fins being the exception which it is to be hoped proves the rule( is that Gray has spread his strategic wings to not only doing quality analysis of the opponent, pulling something from the Bills toolbox to stop it and effectively implementing the change in a short half time, but also he proved able to produce a scheme which allowed his players to make plays right from the start and anticipated or matched any adjustments by the the Browns. I\m not worried about our players ability to make plays (as the unfortunately failed to do on a 40+ yard pass by Leftwich on Clements and likewise on a 40+yard prayer by Boller on McGee) I think the key will be Gray putting our players in a position right away to make plays. The stakes are high and they should be able to do this.

As is pointed by Alaska Darin seems to be set too high for many (AD says any) GMs to meet out the standard. Figuring that the top 1/3 of GMs are better than 2/3 oftheir peers are there even 10 teams that meet the standards you set to not be considered sub-par. Even beyond making this judgment do you think it measures whether a GM is a good drafter or not. Picking a player may be the right move for a drafter to make, but I think it woold not be correct to find a fault with his draft prowess because that player got hurt and never made the Pro Bowl. Sure proneness to injury is a factor important for making a good pick, but would you really say TD made a bad choice in Losman because TV hurt him practice? Further is a draft choice not a good choice if he doesn't make the Pro Bowl because the position is loaded and other players rack up the Pro Bowl votes and get the nod. However, even by the factoids you name, 7 of the 12 Bills drafted in TDs first year started for the team at some point in their careers. 5 of the 10 players drafted in '02 started for the team, 3 of 8 drafted in '03 (including WM and McGee) and 1 of the 6 drafted last year. My guess this is easily par among TDs peers. You might fault him if you want because Clements at CB ain't a Pro Bowler and Williams ain't a Pro Bowler but declaring someone sub=par because of this does not seem logical and by your own standards 50% or better of his picks from top to bottom in the draft become starters for the team at some point by their third year.

As you can see from a couple of the above posts, if you are going to maintain that TD has been subpar in the draft, it should be a relatively straightforward thing to substantiate. However, this accusation has been made with little substantive evidence to back it up and when folks have been called on this, there seems to be little more that they can point to besides Mike Williams' off-season issues and complaints about the 2002 draft. However, MW turning his career around earlier this season does not make him a success yet, but shows why it is intelligent to wait a few years before judguing a draft. Overall, a key to substantiating your complaint is your use of the word "sub-par". Is par set by the rest of the league's performance in picking winners or is par set by your hopes and dreams as fan. If par is a comparison to the rest of the league I have not seen any totally credible estimations of how well teams do at picking contributors from the draft, but TD says 50% of even first round picks disappoint and even if this estimate is on the high side it is uncontroverted by facts. If par is set based on fan hopes then every GM disappoints. To date my sense of his draft is: 1. 2001- 5 of 12 picks still on the team. 7 of 12 actually started for the team at some point. 1 Pro Bowl nominee (Henry). 2 likely starters next year (Clements, Schobel), 1 likely starter lost to FA (Jennings), 1 likely reserve (Edwards), 1 likely trade bait (Henry) . Overall, I would say the Bills got value from this draft as slightly more than half the players selected were valuable enough to start (though this says a bit about the poor situation TD inherited and injury as Spoon and Sullivan were supplanted by better players. In order to credibly make the case TD is sub-par as a drafter based on this tear you need to demonstrate that a par performance in the NFL is higher than getting some contribution out of more than 7 or 12 players or yell loudly enough some subjective case. Even the subjecive case would need to count Henry as a bad choice and ignore his Pro Bowl recognition, ignore his rushing yardage gained for the Bills, and discount the value of any return we get for trading him and the good for the Bills mercenary job TD did in extending him. Further, a subjective attack weould need to blame TD for the market economics of the game assuming Jennings leaves. I think the most rational negative assessment that can be made of TDs work here us that he did not find a gem on the second day of the draft. True, but if he did it would be a measure of greatness rather than the failure to find this needle in the haystack meaning he has failed. This is particularly true that he did at least find two players who started for us on day 2 though neither was good enough to stick once we escaped cap hell. 2. 2002- Reasonably judged TDs worst draft as there are no NFL stars here (yet?). However, 7 of the 10 players selected are still with the team though all but MW are reserves. Of these players Bannan and Thomas have contributed to this team along with MW as position players. Reed is disappointing but his production his first year makes it too early to give up on him but he must produce from the word go in his next camp. Denney from my view is a pure financing question, He is not worth more than the 455K he is paid annually, but at that pay level (and lower earlier) he did contribute as a starter on a D which was highly ranked in the league last year. TD reached to move up to get him but our need at DL as GW shifted us to a 4-3 from a 3-4 at the same time we were losing Wiley to FA, Hansen to retirement and Big Ted and BS as cap csualties. To make matters tougher picking a tackle at #4 was a no-brainer and picking up Reed who was not expected to be there gave us the ability to trade PP away which turned into the pick which brought McGahee here. Wire clearly has disappointed as a position playetr, but given that ST is one of the things which makes this team special now and Wire has been a contributor here with his tackles and turnovers recoveries coming here. again it strikes me as foolhardy to declare him a total bust. As far as Wire, I'm inclined to fault GW more for having to push him to start (which he is not good enough to do) because they screwed up the Jenkins pick instead of training him to be an ST contributor from the start as they should have done. The other thing worth noting about the 2002 draft is that TD began showing his willingness to trade future draft picks for value today. Say what you want about Bledsoe overall, but clearly trading the 2003 pick on the second day of the 2002 draft provided value for us that year as Bledsoe made the Pro Bowl and was aan important part of getting this region excited about football after a 3-13 season. The jury is still out for another year in terms of accurately assessing this draft. Someone will have to breakout to make this a plus draft. Though not likely, MW's improved play, Reed's first year production and a bunch of guys hanging around and contributing to the team in spots (Wire, Bannan. Denney) makes this possible. 2003- All signs point to this being TDs best draft so far. 3 of the 8 players are starters (WM, Kelsay, McGee) and 2 are performing at the very top of the NFL game at RB and KR. All 8 are still with the team Sape and Sobieski with the practice squad. Crowell and Haggan are clearly mainstays on a very productive ST and even Aiken chips in there and is a credible position back-up as well to the tune that they decided his play allowed them to deep 6 Shaw. 2004- 6 players drafted and of course all six are still on the team. Evans looks like a real keeper who frees the team up to deal with Moulds based on our interests. Losman remains our QB of the future and Fast Freddy Smith is a mercuric difference maker. Euhus also was a contributor before his injury. McFarland and Anderson have at least suited up to make appearances this year and again its way too early to assess but signs look very good. In essene by my analysis, calling TD a sub-par drafter is not warranted by reality. 2001 was at least par and was actually very good for the Bills at the time and right away amd in terms of the future should produce 2 long-term Bills from the 7 rounds of drafting. 2002 may reasonably be judged as below par as it will likely produce 1 long-term Bill unless one of Denney, Bannan, Wire or Reed steps in a way I don't expect them to. 2003 looks like a great year so far with at least 2 if not 3 players becoming long-term Bills from the 7th round and 2 already threatening to rewrite the record books. 2004 is way to early to tell but the prospects look as good as 2003 in terms of production. What facts make a difference to you in terms of declaring TD a sub-par drafter?

Also as we saw with the lengthy wait Marvin Lewis went through after being dubbed a wunderkind after he co-ordinated a unit to an historic level taht even with sure things and NF coaching there are no sure things. Weis was quite likely a good candidate to get an HC position thi year, but given that the number of available openings will likely fit on one hand, some are going to go to great D co-ordinators rather than great O co-ordinators because that is what a team might need, some are going to go to some OK co-ordinator who is a good buddy with the GM doing the hiring or with the owner, and the lack of past minority hiring actually may mean that even on the Pats Romeo Crennel gets more bites at the apple than Weis, a bird in the hand is certainly alot better than there being nothing in the bush. Even if an NFL job was a sure thing for Weis, he might end up getting a job with an owner who is not fully committed to the team or in some bad situation. One thing is for sure with his taking on a bad situation at ND, he certainly will get his full contract erm to produce a winner after ND made the choice that Willingham finishing in the top 2 for graduating his players and producing 2 good seasons (the surprising job his first season and going to a Bowl game this one) was not good enough to keep him around. The NFL is "what have you done for me lately" like never before. ND looks like a pretty good deal.

I hope you are right that Gray will not be on anyone's list. If I were Cleveland and looking for an HC next year (which they will be) Gray just did a pretty impressive first job interview with them Sunday. They know who he is and what he can do bigtime. My sense is that he will at least get the courtesy calls because: 1. He has been considered for an HC job before because the Bills interviewed him. 2. Last Sunday's effort is not the same as winning the SB was for Lewis, but holding an opposing NFL squad to such low yardage prouction will serve to get him noticed more widely. 3. The minority-hiring requirement process mandates the interviewing from a relatively small pool of candidates with folks like Crennel, Gray and Cotrell heading the list. I think Crennel will be the lead but gray will get some interviews. Once you are in the interview all bets are off. We saw from TD hiring GW that the issue which can make the determining difference is how individuals interact. If Gray hits it off with some GM or owner I worry.

My sense is that TD has demonstrated for quite a while that he has a very good feel for the game and a great feel for negotiatingin the interests of his team (he generally sets good football goals and makes them so by cutting deals which benefit the the team). However, amidst this lovefest judgment, TD also is the victim of a very human failing that in my judgment upon arrival here he had a prime motivation of never again allowing the HC he hired to be in a position to fire him. I find it hard to begrudge him what I perceive (perhaps incorrectly, but if you judge him to be above this human foible and failing then I'm all eyes to see the evidence that he is above this human failing) to be a natural reaction to the shock of being fired and run out of town. I think this failing has been evident in several of his actions: 1. It took him awhile to hire an HC and despite many openings that year and other teams snapping up the hot candidates early (a speed which I think was prompted by a clear need for the NFL to achieve an end to years of discrimination against African-American HCs so teams hired fast to avoid the pressure to hire an A-A when they might have wanted someone else for whatever reason). TDs delay made little sense to me as the rapid hiring of candidates not only removed some of the best HC candidates, but good assistants also got snapped up. By waiting however, TD put himself in a position of power and the driver's seat in having the only opening available to the remaining candidates (at that point coaches on team's still playing could not negotiate and thus John Fox from NYG and Marvin Lewis were left twisting by their team's playoff runs. it looks to me as though he waited to which hurt the Bills because their was a weaker pool of assistant coaches but it helped him be in the drivers seat in picking and negotiating with his HC. 2. His HC choice (GW) was ultimately a bad one and makes sense to me only in that he chose a guy who would not take him on like Cowher did and if he did he could beat him. TD passed over two clearly better choices for HC in John Fox and Marvin Lewis. Both of these men produced far better results than GW in their first year of work than GW while taking on situations which were close to the Bills situation in terms of the HC inheriting a bad situation. In terms of the long-term Fox made the SB, the jury is still out on Lewis, but GW did and deserved to be canned. 3. I was wrong in my initial assumption that TD chose GW to be his administrative assistant because of the great lists and initial contacts GW had made. I assumed that TD feared that then D wunderkind Lewis might take him on and that for whatever reason Fox also made him antsy, but GW could more easily be actively managed. However, where i was mistaken is that rather than managing GW to correct errors, TD instead took a passive-aggressive posture and allowed GW to make his own bed and then made sure he was in a position to hold GW accountable by giving him credit or blame for the team's fate. Ultimately, Bills fans paid for this management strategy as the team was billsfanone to fail badly in GW's first year. Not only was GW allowed to make some obviously horrendous choices in hiring an inexperienced group of assistants, but also cap hell meant that year's team was not going to have a lot of talent. GW ended up wholely weakened in terms of his ability to pull a Cowher even if he wanted to as he had to fire his first OC. 4. The internal mechanics we fans aren't privy to also turned out to undercut GW. I like others assumed Kevin Killdrive was a TD choice, but actually TD wanted Clements but "lost" this fight as it became GW making his own bed and making it badly. As it turned out GW ended up powerless to rein in Killdrive's failings because if he stripped Killdrive of power because the O became ineffective it would be an admission that GW had failed twice with OC hiring. Even worse, TD had created a situation in GW's last year by extending all the coaching contracts except a lowball offer to GW that it undercut GW's position. It was clearly not his team. The other change which seemed important for making it clear whose team it was came when GW made a GM-like announcement that Larry Centers would remain a Bill as long as he wanted. A week later Centers got cut. On this type of issue either GW was a liar (unlikely) or simply flat out of the decision-making loop. At any rate, TD has been good or great in virtually every facet of his job from my standpoint. However, the one big failing on his part was his totally screwed up coaching hire of GW. MM seems to be a great improvement, but the faulty GW hiring cost the team 3 years of results.

Clements is getting interest from Pitt now in addition to the flirtation with Notre Dame, my guess is that the Golden Dome job was the real worry because it was Clements alma mater and it would simply take a whole bunch o money from Pitt to pry Clements off the same track which brought MM an HC job which Clements is now firmly on. The real worry for the Bills however will likely come post season as my guess is that Gray will likely be an interview candidate for every HC opening there is. Since the NFL by rule is requiring all of its teams to give a serious interview to minority candidates to try to reverse the obvious discrimination which has led to only 8 or so African-American HCs in the entire history of the NFL, Gray is an obvious candidate for a promotion from DC which he would be allowed to consider even though he is under contract: 1. His teams under both GW and KK have ranked in the top 5 statistically for NFL teams. 2. He demonstrated quick tactical mastery of the zone blitz by doing all the play calling last year and when it came down to a choice between its originator and him he won out. 3. He showed a strategic mastery to match his tactical work by designing and swiftky implementing changes in the Bills scheme which have nullified what opponents were doing well in the first half. 4. He now has drawn national notice (in addition to the practical notice he demonstrated as he shut down team after team) by seeing his Bills hold Cleveland to Pop Warner league size numbers for offensive production. 5. He has already been judged by the Bills as meriting HC consideration as we interviewed him for the job last year befire hiring MM. Losing Gray strikes me as a bigger problem than losing Clements as MM is an offensive guy and since LeBeau is gone we would pretty much be at square 1 for hiring a replacement. TD again is looking smarter and smarter for extending Gray early. It may not be enough if Cleveland or one of the teams looking offers him the ranch and the dog of an HC position, but this does worryme.

I had assumed that it was some version of this thinking which interested some folks, and that other things interested other folks from this being a true crime story to fantasies some folks had about killing their spouse. Regardless I think most people who were interested in this were interested for reasons I and others would classify as viewers being interested for their entertainment. Thats OK in a free society. The main part I found sick about this was how newsnets like Fox and CNN clothed this issue in their public trust in order to make wads o cash. I thought the fascination with the OJ trial was pretty sick given the hype and celebrity which overwhelmed it. However, there at least were some broader social relavance regarding race, celebrity and wealth that provided some vague justification (though failed justification in my view) of that case. This one struck me as OJ Light. Prurient interest as entertainment withouy the slightest pretense of justification or societal relevance.

I think (personally) that your incisive comments have earned you the right to eat whatever you want. This post is there for our good friends who not only made some fairly stupid comments which have either not come to pass, have been proven wrong or defied reality in the first place (how some folks can insist that a QB who played for a team which made the SB under Parcells and who played QB in the majority of a must-win game in route to an SB win has bever been a winner anywhere simply defies reality). At any rate, these folks know who they are, are they also secure enough, strong enough and posters enough to admit what they were wrong about and allow us to move on with only the occaisional reference to their claims or are they gonna lay low until the Bills eventually lose (as happens to everyone) or get eliminated from the playoffs. They get to crawl on glass a little bit now or they should crawl on glass and slime if they come back later to claim they told us so.

You are right that the desire to trade Henry is already a done deal (though because it takes a wlling partner it is not a completely done deal). However, I disagree with your assessment on TH being a lousy player. 1. Generally lousy players do not put up back-to-back 1300 yard rushing seasons/ 2. Claims that he can\t b;iyz pick-up strike me as overblown because while this isn't the strongrst part of his game like it was when it was a weapon for TT he is adequate at the job as seen by him doing this work effectively for the less than fleet-footed Bledsoe when he hit Moulds for 100 receptions and Price for 94. 3. Claims that he cannot catch passes ignore the fact his highest total in his brief time as a pro RG was 40+ catches in a season and his downturn to 20+ last year had a bit too do with Kevin Killdrive deciding not to throw to him after he dropped a couple. I think Henry demonstrated he was a good player when he played the game through the pain of a broken bone and still was productive. He's not one of the top 5 RBs in the league, but being in the top 5 is a mark of greatness and I still think he qualifies as good and far above your determination that he is lousy.

Walter Payton is a good thought to bring to mind. I'm somewhat embarassed actually as I spent my first 18 years in Chicago (I was actually at the game when a hit from Kermit Alexander blew out Sayers' knee speaking of RBs with good stiff arms and better moves so he didn't need it as much). I think Sweetness had so many things he could use (speed, quickness, touhness, etc.) that his stiff arm never stood out for me because everything was great. One of my favorite stories which is a testament to his strength and balance was that he once raced a guy in a 50 yard dash. Payton barely lost, but it was marvelous because the other guy ran it on his legs and Payton did his 50 yards on his hands.

A big part of Cleveland's problems compared to other teams is that other teams have: 1. An OL line that has players able to take on our front two one-on-one or of high enough quality that they can direct their double-coverage blocks or 1-1/2 coverage with the second guy doing at least a chip block to cover Adams and Williams. The ClevelandOL has been hit with injuries to starters like Tucker and poor drafting and FA wprk as they devoted too many resources and cap rooms to the QB position and not enough to the offensive trenches/ 2. RBs who presented a serious run threat or at least can make goof blitz pick-u[s to give the QB some time. Again injuries to more talented runners like Suggs and some questionable FA work has left them without the horses, 3. QBs above the Losman level of learning the game- McCown simply is not a good enough player once the opponent has some tape on him and players are preparaing to exploit him (two pieces which were not there when he did well last week. Even worse though he has a rookie brain like JP he does not have Losman's athleticism to get himself out of trouble. Like Robidkie said it was like men and boys out there. Even great coches are not going to coach boys to take out the Bills.

Many praises to you Bill, though my endorsement is certainly not necessary or required. I definitely have enjoyed learning from and disagreeing with your posts over the years. It really is great to root for a winner and though I was wrong to declare it impossible for the Bills to win with Bledsoe playing as poorly as he has recently, the Bills fortunately have proved me wrong in that they have won going away several times in a row with Bledsoe's performance ranging from good (the TD throw to Evans las week wasa beautiful pass) to downright stinky (100 yds? even in lousy weather against Cleveland this stinks and the 3 pics were putrid). I am happy I was so wrong. I don't think I was wrong about Bledsoe who I still think is well beyond his best days. I was wrong not paying attention to the factual occurence that a team can simply blow opponents away multiple times even if they're QB doesn't play well or consistently. The most amazing thing though about this is that I saw myself as being fairly moderate about Bledsoe and a team's ability to win with him, I deemed the original trade to be a good one, but the possibility of being a winner witg him was over. I think folks who claim an real football knowledge rather than being driven by their own pride would step up now if they truly rooted for the Bills and simply admit they were wrong and it is possible for this team to win with Bledsoe doing whatever Bledsoe can do. How low the brilliant have fallen dropping back from their worldly pronouncements that the Bills could not win at all with Bledsoe to now feebly claiming he will never win them an SB/

We certainly should not forget how badly this team played when they went 0-4 and 1-5 because remembering this is a big part of what makes this turnaround a turnaround and makes this so much fun. What I'm also not forgetting is that many posters on TSW seemed to assert that they knew a lot more about football than us other foolish posters and even stranger that they knew a lot more about football than TD, MM and the Bills braintrust who are paid way too much money to spend too much timing thinking about how to win this boy's game. I'm as happy as anyone to admit that I was flatout wrong for having lost faith in the Bills ability to make a playoff run, It still looks pretty doubtful that they will make it to the playoffs as in addition to winning out (a difficult thing to do in itself) they will have depend upon too many other opponents doing complete el foldos to get there. Nevertheless, I am pleased amidst the difficult times of the first half of the season, I had my doubtsad failings, but at least I did not invest in to total non-football thinking of some posters on TSW who stated that it was simply a stone cold lock that this team would never win with Bledsoe at the helm, that TD made obviously silly draft picks which would never work and actually seemed to delight in mocking out the bad accomplishments of this team rather than suggesting how to make it better (outside of suggesting some insane cuts), Folks know who they are. It would be interesting to track the number of posts they made in the bad times and their declining number as the team performs better after their sage wisdom was totally ignored. Are folks who gave football "advice" while we were not producing strong enough to now stand-up and say that the Bills huge increase in productivity came about at the same time as their advice (or stone-cold perscriptions) regarding issues like cutting Vincent, moving MW to LG, or cutting Bledsoe yesterday were totally ignored?

I also regard the stiff arm as a Travis Henry tool which I generally remember him having used with greater effectiveness than the norm from time to time. What makes WM's use of it different in my view is that I rarely if ever have seen an RB use it as consistently and with the devastating impact WM does. I generally and vaguely remember TH as having used it very effectively from time to time, and it does not strike me as irrational that someone might judge TH to have a better stiff arm than WM if you are measuring the best of in terms of comparing individual single uses. Howebver, the thing which separates WM in my mind is that it is a weapon which he uses not only with devastating impact, but uses it effectively in almost every game he plays. I think it someone wanted to study what in particular makes this such an effective WM tool, there would be several factors to look at and you tell me what's important in the real world in terms of the effectiveness of his usage: 1. He realy fools people as to when it is coming- Many folks remark that WM runs flat-footed like a FB rather than on his toes like many scatbacks and RBs. Thus, he covers ground quicker than folks estimate and it would not surprise me if part of the effectiveness of his stiff arm is that he hits opponents with it before they have steeled themselves to take a hit, It may be more effective and he may be hurting folks with it because they are off-balance or having steeled themselves for the blow. 2. He targets the stiff arm well- I have not looked at the tapes on this, but it may well make a difference in how effective this shot is depending upon whether it hits the opponent in the face, in the shoulder, at the center of gravity or some other point. One thing great about WMs natural running style is his patience and ability to hit the chosen hole quickly. Just as he picks a spot to run to he may also have excellent skills at sizing up an opponent and stiff-arming him at just the right point and just the right time to increase his running effectiveness, knock down the opponebt and in fact to hurt him. 3. He's a bigger boy than perceived- The normal thinking is that quick guys tend to be smaller and WM weighs in at 230+ which gets up near FB range, The greater weight and muscle development appears to be in his upper body and apparently he justs packs a powerful punch. I don'y know what the explanation is. but his stiff-arm is fantastic. I look forward to word spreading about this weapon as the national media begins to take interest and opponents never even touching him as they are so worried about the stiff arm that they forget to run as fast they can to catch him.