Fake-Fat Sunny

I think the mistake with Bledsoe was resigning him this off-season because I think we are pretty cap committed to sticking with him next season. If he played like he did early in the season then it makes it palatable though gnarly to bite the bullet and cut him after June 1st, however his team having put up a winning record oversll and having blown out the average to lesser teams in the league means he will stay. I think the deal for Bledsoe was a wash through this off-season with Bledsoe meriting his pro bowl mod on a squad which improved from 3-13 to 8-8 but he positively sucked last year. I look for a a hoped for fair competition between Bledsoe and Losman next year in camp but I fear neither is ready to lead this team to glory. The problems I have with Losman's game are both the problems of any rookie which can be improved by playing but also some mechanical issues that I think off-field preparation and repetive practice are going to be a lead in solving. In addition to these two, if we can find a vet QB of better quality than Matthews to be our third QB I think we would be doing very well for out situation.

I disagree in that I say once again Bledsoe showed the same strengths and weakenesses he has always had. He can throw the longbsll well as he did din on the pass to Evans but has clear and obvious weaknesses that he has had in holding onto the ball too long and getting so focused on winning the game with his powerful arm that he fails to show even the football agility he has demonstrated through the winning streak selling fakes, rolling out and throwing and even running QB draw plays. It is certainly possible to win and get very far with Bledsoe as Parcells did in NE constantly harping on Bledsoe to throw the damn ball when he would hold onto it and with BB/Weis having Bledsoe run an offense which was powered down for the young Brady. However, as the Bills showed today he will not lead the team to a critical victory if the team is forced to demand more of him than he has to give. Its certainly possible to win with Bledsoe you just need great leadership and a powerful team to do that.

Bledsoe is right when he says the usaual party line that QNs and HCs say that they are given too much blame for losses and too much credit for wins in what is the ultimate team game in pro sports. I think Bledsoe has performed at about the same level as an athlete at all points in his career as a Bill. However, the productivity in terms of W/Ls and stats have varied drastically depending upon whether the OC puts him a position to do the things he does well and minimizes the times he is required to do things that he does poorly. I think the biggest increase in Bledsoe's productivity is that we are asking him to do a lot less and when the part of his game that is removed are the parts where his play creates the most mistakes we do extraordinarily well because the rest of the TEAM in terms of the ST and D are playing so well. Clements as opposed to Kevin Killdrive is calling an O game which uses Drew's powerful arm as a consistent threat and a change-up rather than relying upon his arm and brain to win the game for us. I think when a team relies too much on Drew he can go into his all too familiar pat and locking in on his favorite receiver (usually Moulds in our O) and interceptions happen. A second big switch is that according to Bledsoe himself they have limited the number and types of audibles he can call. I think this had made the offense even less pass happy and simplified the options for the receivers and for Bledsoe as well who is a great guy in termd of character but no one would mistake him for a rocket scientist. The third big change in the O is that Clements and Mm have realized that though Bledsoe is much better throwing from a pocket, this does not mean that he is totally incapable of throwing on the move and even recognizing that the safey is going wide or dropping back and he runs the QB draw. I think Kevin Killdrive made the mistake of operating in a way that because Bledsoe is not as accurate rolling out as he is standing still he rarely called the rollout pass. As seen on the TD throw Sunday to Evans on a rollout, Clements has mixed this into the repetoire. Bledsoe is not asked to do this all the time (and probably not on 3rd down so he can comfortably throw the ball OB if the receiver is closely marked) its a a great tool to have in the repetoire and makes it harder for blitzers to sell out going straight upfield looking for the sack. I think Bledsoe's production has improved a lot because we ask to do more with less.

On the contrary, both Drew and Moulds were publicly expressing their hopes that we would resign Peerless when he became an FA and I think Moulds even raised the unheard of notion of redoing his contract to keep Peerless around. I saw no indications that Price was a jerk and all he seemed to say fell into the usual overconfidence of any athlete that he wanted to paid like a co-#1 WR (not a rediculous notion with Moulds ringing up 100 catches in 2002 and Price bringing in 94. I think they were about equal over the couple of years in TDs also). I think Price got a bad rap on the wall as we posters went through separation anziety, but the only bad things you can say about his play as a Bill were a few untimely fumbles which always struck me as him coughing it up on a second hit when he was fighting for extra yardage instead of falling down with the first stiff wind when he had the ball. TD did a great job by laying the transition tag on him after Arthur Blank foolishly promised the AT fans he would sign Peerless in FA. Rather than being a jerk when the Bills tagged him, he appeared to cooperate well with TD and said the things necessary that allowed us to extort a first round choice from AT that became WM. I think there is no real evidence of Peerless being a jerk, cancer or what have you and plenty of evidence that we were glad to have him and glad to see him go in exchange for a #1 who became WM.

The need has also shifted away from LT as the one cadillac position. With the success of Big Ted, the mileage the Bills are getting out of Phat Pat and Adams and the advent of bruisers at DT like Bowens in MI, there is now a premium being placed on good guard play that has even gotten folks talking about moving MWs big RT bucks to guard (a quite unlikely move given his recent play at RT). In addition, not only are quality rushers such whathisname in NYG lining up at RE, but teams are running more stunts to free up rushers so the best rusher may come from anywhere and teams like the Bills and Steelers are making hay with zone blitzes which means the center is doing line calls which call on all blockers to be ready to go up against the opponents best rusher. I think LTs will still command a premium because they have no help to one side since the TE is on the other side and it takes a while anyway for shifts in contracts.

I just saw this thread and just posted my sense of whether there will be a market for jJennings in another thread. As I said in it as it particular deals with the AT situation, I don't know the particulars but there are several questions which must be answered to make responses to the question in this thread realistic. 1, What are the cap impacts of the new 100+ million deal for Vuck on the AT cap- With backloading this contract actually could create more front end room for AT in their cap, but this does not necessarily make it easier for them to make a big offer to and sign Jennings as he is at an age where he is also looking for a substantial long-term deal. I think the Vick deal will constrain AT from going after Jennings and makes it more likely that they sign a proven LT vet to a short-term deal with any initial cap savings created by the Vick deal. 2. I really doubt that AT is in any position to cut Price this soon after he was signed to a big deal as all of his contract would become deadspace against the 2006 cap even if you waited until June 1st. 3. What is a moderate contract? Is it the 5.5 million annual cap hit below the $6 million top 10 average which is the transition figure. Is it the $5 million annual salary Petitgout or Clifton and a couple of other LTs. Is it something like the incredible bargain of a $2.6 million annually that the Bills pay to get Teague? If it is Teague level money plus a little kicker for an LT, I sign Jennings in a hot minute, it it is top 10 OL money I wish him luck elsewhere. If it is between these amounts it depends upon our budget.

I actually doubt it more and more. This feeling is not driven by any sense that he is a bad player because on the contrary I think he is pretty good and depite some clear flaws in his game (he is going to get hit with at least one penalty a game and the hope is it does not come at a critical time on some critical play, he has yet to play an entire season and while it would be too strident to call him injury prone it is essential the Bills have someone like Price backing him up because he is going to miss a game or two and will be unlikely to finish a game or two even if he can answer the bell the next week) he certainly is worth the Bills resigning at even a slightly higher rate than the market will give him because continuity and chemistry are important. The issue is here that I actually don't think that Jennings will command a top 10 OL contract in this market. Reasonable LT have gotten big bucks the past few years so the conventional wisdom is certainly that Jennings will likely command a big salary as a credible multiyear starter at LT. However, it is exactly because of the run on LTs the last few years that I think Jennings will not command huge offers even though I would be proud to have him as a Bill. Note this: 1. Many teams have reacted to the run on LTs by giving reasonable or good contracts to some fairly pedestrian talent at the position. Teams such NTG and Chicago have committed to players like Luke Petitgout and Kyle Clifton at LT with multiyear deals that average out at $5 million a year even if it is questionable whether they are worth that much or better than Jennings. Even if Jennings is available to these teams as a UFA these teams are out of the market. 2. Of the top 10 OL salaries it appears 8 of them are for LTs and these teams are not in the market for Jennings either. 3. Among the teams that are in the market for an LT, there are players who are either better than Jennings like Orlando Pace, or are better or at least have a rep of being better like Tra Thomas or Walter Jones who actually will command the first contracts that teams with an LT room and cap room will make an offer to get. I'd pay top 10 cap hit $ for Pace if I had it to spend without flinching so he gets an offer before and a higher offer than Jennings, so the market is constrained for him here as well. 4. Teams that have a need and want him have other cap commitments which will constrain what they offer their LT. Jennings appears that he would love to go home to AT, but AT just put over 100 million of their cap money into Michael Vick. Conceivably AT might judge further investment into the O as useful for protecting the Vick investment and making it payoff, but they just expended a large cap hit to sign Peerless Price for Vick's game last year and we will see in these playoffs whether the better way for them to win is to expend the limited cap resources they have left on improving a D which allowed Carolina to push a game into OT where it was Vick's heroics which saved them. I don't know AT's cap situation, but I would not be surrised if they cannot afford an offer to make Jennings a top 10 OL offer. 5. Jennings is an aspiring agent and folks fear that the will have the intellect to stick up the Bills for big money. However, it is the prescence of an agent's intellect which will allow Jennings to read the market like TD and see that the pickings may be slim so he is better off signing for more money than he has ever seen with the Bills even though it is far less than top 10 OL cap hit money. The bottom line for the Bills is that under the rules Jennings is a UFA and thus will be able to operate in the somewhat free market and get a substantial contract. However, while the Bills will certainly have to look at FAs if Jennings goes and they acquired an LT in Teague a couple of years ago for $2 million a year they will easily have to pay this amount or more this year for a potential replacement for Jennings. My sense of the calculus is that Jennings is not worth the franchise tag amount for an LT of $7 million annually (an amounted bouyed by payments to studs such as Ogden and inflated by the Bills ongoing overpayment to Ruben brown) or even the transition tag amount of $6 million annually that the Runyans drag down. In fact, if he gets this type of offer from someone, i say adios and good luck because we cannot afford this amount and if we were willing to pay it there are other LTs like Pace I'd try to get. In fact, the devil is in the details I have not taken the time to review all the LT contracts in the league to figure it out, but I would not sign Jennings for more than what was offered to pederstrian talents like Cifton and Petitgout because I doubt the market will make offers any higher than this available to Jennings. If we hve to say goodbye and good luck to him, i think there are ample other options for LT that the Bills might pursue. Its not his quality of play but i simply don't think the market is going to support a upper tier OL contract deal for Jennings.

Lindell sucks for long distance kicks (40+) but do you see the Bills absorbing the cap hits and deadspace that signing Nugent would entail. Do you or others assign any importance to Lindell doing well with the kickoff game as demonstrated by the great drive starts and tackling our coverage team produces in conjunction with his directional kicks, and mix of squib kicks and height? Do you or others assign any importance to Lindell's demonstrated performance in onside kicks? I simply do not see April wanting to upset the very good ST kick coverage performance by taking on a rookie to train in this regard if there is a substantial cap cost and the usual rookie uncertainties in doing so. I do not see the Bills braintrust admitting that TD was flat out wrong when he said good kickers are a dime a dozen and gave big bucks to Lindell based on this.

Again, it seems really doubtful to me that we draft Nugent. I haven't seen him and he may be just the player we want that provides us with the potent kicker threat that Vinatieri and Vanderjagt provide. However, to do this means that we act on Lindell by cutting him and: 1. We end up with 600k of deadspace on our salary cap in addition to whatever allocation Nugent gets slotted for as a 3rd or 2nd round pick it will likely take to get him. 2. Lindell has shown no ability to make kicks beyond 40 yards, but the rookie Nugent will have to provide good statistical output inside of 40 (quite likely but we all know how squirrely kickers can be), proper directional kicking for the return game and hangtime which Lindell does quite well (not a no brainer in the winds of the Ralph and with the transition from college to pro), and demonstrate skills in onside kick return (rarely called upon but Lindell did this extremely well influencing a game this year for the Bills). Nugent will have to equal this to make the gain in long kick ability worth the substantial cap hit. 3. Lindell's big problem is no record of making game winning kicks or kicks from a distance, but we simply have not used him at all in these situations as oddly we have gone a couple of years without needing this because mostly we get blown out or are blowing people out. MM has shown no confidence in him doing these kicks as a couple of his misses came in bad conditions which do not auger well for him even doing a long kick in good conditions. However, he has hit a couple of long kicks we took off the scoreboard with timeouts and i doubt that the braintrust will upset some good coverage work and demonstrated onside work for a long kicking benefit they may well be able to train Lindell into. 4. We are missing our 1st rounder having spent this on Losman and there are other needs for depth which we are more likely to use our first couple of picks for such as OL, back-up RB, back-up LB etc, I'm not arguing that having long range kick ability or Nugent is bad or unnecessary, I'm just arguing it appears very unlikely to me the Bills will do this.

My sense is that a big part of the answer to this question is that the GM manages the business in addition to trying to win games. GMs aren't ignorant at all. They know that by drafting a highly touted QB, they can market their product around that player like no other player on the team. A good QB who plays well puts butts in the seats and allows you to sell boxes. Even a QB who contributes little the team except promise allows you to market your product. I want him to win for sure, but ultimately my job is likely to be determined by how much money I made. Drafting QBs in the first round simply has no record of winning the SB since Dalolas chose Aikman or even getting to the SB since McNair, However, Manning and McNabb have proved to be great investments fr my team even though we have never gotten to the Big Dance. I for one was amused by seing SH and Indy duel last week. One should expect them to be in very different places having drafted one of the best QBs to ever play the game and having drafted one of the biggest busts of all time. However, i point out again that Manning finally stormed ahead of Leaf just last year in terms of delivering playoff wins to the team which drafted him. The two teams are very close to each other in output this year and this includes SD blowing yet another 1st round pick on a QB who contributed zero to the the team this year.

I think I go comditional picks for Travis. I'd ask for a 1st and the potential partmer would say no and offer a 4th or lower. I settle for taking at least a thrid with conditional escalators if he gets a certain number of carries or a certain yardsge I get a first. If you think he sucks then your problem with this deal should not be giving a first for targets you think he will never hit because he sucks but your problem should be with someone giving up a 3ed as a floor. I have no problem with the Bills taking a 4th as a floor also. If I am Travis I think staying with the Bills is probably a good thing for me in terms of getting a big payday. The injury creates enough uncertainty he will be in a poor position or unable to negotiate a good new deal until he proves himself a bit. As was shown by the injury fear with WM last week if TH stays he will almost certainly get a chance with the Bills next year to showcase himself as a sub or unfortunately it is not unlikely he would get a start.

The problem with schedule comparisons this year is that the results have been so have and have not this year with more than the usal 2 or fewer teams only experiencing one or two losses that it is hard to find a win against a quality team because the Steelers, Patriots, Eagles and slightly lesser extent Indy have loss so few times. The search for quaity wins by playoff teams becomes even harder as the few losses these teams have suffered have come against each other or wild upsets like the Fins win or even the Iggles falling to a Rams team with a losing record. Instead most of the rest of the league and especially the NFC drag each other down as an 8-8 record looks likely to qualify for the playoffs. The real importance of great producing teams like the Pats being beaten by the Fins is that it can clearly be the case on any given Sunday that anybody can beat anybody. The key is for the Bills to make the playoffs and since if they do they will be on a 7 game winning role and likely 7 games in a row they have absolutely torched their opponents they will actually have more than a punchers chance of making the SB. Its fun to dream and look ahead though I'm glad to see the team is not doing this, but we will need at least one game like the refs employed the tuck rule to rescue the Pats SB run, but I like our chances if we get in. Particularly when after the NE game I was pretty sure we weren't even gonna get in.

Thanks also for your thoughtful response (even I have trouble reading my too-lengthy blather and appreciate those who wade through my thinking our loud). I think the key points once you get through all the considerations is that I agree with you fully that the supporting cast cast is key and the difficulty with spending a a big draft pick on a QB is that the huge contract these players get constrains a team's ability to build a good/great supporting cast around them. I don't argue that Manning and McNabb are bad QBs, I think they are the two best in the league. I argue that the cap constraints imposed by resigning (and resigning again) Manning has made it impossible for Indy to invest in a D capable of even getting them homefield advantage and capable to this point of delivering many playoff wins with Manning (he finally roared ahead of Ryan Leaf in playoff wins for the team which drafted him last year). In addition, the thing I am most impressed about with Philly is that even with the cap constraints imposed on building a team by resigning McNabb to a huge deal the market merited him making they steal had the sklls and the moxie to sign TO to overcome the cap constrsint which left them receivers not good enough to make the plays to get them to the SB last year. I think the unfortunate thing for Indy and Philly this year is that once again I guess it will prove to be the case that the cap constraints which will likely force Indy's road to the SB to go through likely non-passing game weather in NE or Pittsburgh, and Philly to now rely on the low-budget back-up Pinkston due to the injury to Owens will once again make these two teams' investments in 1st round choices of the two best QBs in the game fail to payoff with a place in the SB. As far as the Bills having sacrificed the future by not developin JP this year, its possible but I doubt it actually. First, what the examples of QBs like Brady, Pennington and Vick demonstrate is that it is possible for a QB o be a winner (in terms of making the playoffs) and even win the SB without having started any (or many games in Vicks extraordinary case) . ICE is right that playing is the only way that a QB can learn how to be a true NFL player, but he is flat out wrong if he thinks that starting is the only way you can play. I think JP learns and is benefiting from his mop-up duty. I think pre-season games are real competition against players with NFL speed and running NFL plays. I think that their is valuable off field things which JP specifically needs to focus on in terms of ironing out any mechanical problems in repetitive practice sessions and learning NFL offense and defenses by studying the books, studying film and most important taking the singular opportunity his injury gave him to sit in the the booth and download the Wyche wisdom which ALSO are essential parts of his development. I do not see JP being foced to follow the Tom Brady schedule (at the point where Brady took over an SB winner JP will have had more PT and experience) or the Chad Pennington schedule (which JP is ahead of right now) as condemning him to failure. In fact, I have seen far too many examples of players being rushed along in the Todd Collins development schedule or the ongoing failures of Joey Harrington playing for a bad team that I am quite comfortable if fate forces us to go to the playoffs with JP sitting on bench and building up a sweat fending off women who would love to sleep with anyone on a playoff or (dare I say it) SB team. If JP is good enough to merit going through growing pains and losing watching him play now, I would guess he should also be good enough to have to go through less losing and fewer growing pains as a vet who steps to the fore in his second or third year than depend upon him pulling another RoboQB. The best thing about his situation as far as my read is that by making him the Bills second choice in the draft they used to acquire him we actually held down his salary a little bit allowing us to build a team and acquire a great WR for him to throw to in Evans. I see the JP situation as only positive for the Bills right now.

No one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. i billieve we will be at Pittsburgh and then whether we get in and who we play will be determined by the actions of others. However, if we then get in we will be on a roll of 7 wins in a row and will be able to beat anyone, anywhere, at any time and because of our low seed we will have to do just that. If and when we get in predicting the results of any match-up will be determined much more by the physical condition of the players and whether any back-ups are able to step up for a slowed or knocked out player than the seeding that it is far from a concern at this point in my view.

Hey JP-era, sorry for the delay but the frolic of the holidays and doing a little work (just a little) during this lull week kept me away from TSW. On the contrary, I do not see the recent events as undercutting my arguments at all. This is partially because you misinterpret my argument and partially because this season isn't over yet. To state it again s l o w l y. I argue this. Drafting a QB in the 1st round has a lousy record of helping the team which drafted him win or even get to the Super Bowl. The recent events which still uphold this argument is that the last team to draft a QB in the 1st round who brought that team to an SB win was Dallas picking Troy Aikman with the first pick in 1989. In fact the last team to even make the SB with the leadership of their first round choice was when McNair led the Titans there in 1999. The most recent occurences were 6th round pick Brady leading NE to a win last year and him facinf UDFA Jake Delhomme. No stomach turning recent events yet for this argument. Perhaps the best case to be made for drafting a QB in the first round delivering for the team which drafted him is actually none other than our own Drew Bledsoe who did in real life win a must-win game for NE in their 2001 SB winning run. Thought this is important. i still think that most people view that team as Brady's team and a 6th round pick for them was not the only thing at QB they needed but by far he was the best thing for them at QB that year. I am not arguing that 1st round or 1stday picks at QB suck in all case. However, I am arguing that based on the real world record, a team need not draft a QB in the first and pay him the resulting slotted amount, because 1st rounders like Dilfer and highly rated QBs like Farve will be available to teams on the open market. They can have their first rounder and eat it to by negotiating a cap friendly deal so it does not seem to pay to draft a first rounder and make it more difficult if not impossible to build a team capable of making it to or winning the SB around them, If you disagree with this then name the QBs that teams have drafted in the 1st round who brought the team to the SB in the last 10 or so years or that won an SB for the team which drafted him (that sound you hear is crickets). Now, i think it is worthwhile and fun to consider the current situation. Actually, I was pretty sure when last year's playoffs began that finally in the 2004 playoffs we would see a team led by their 1st round QB pick in the SB. Amazingly, I was wrong in figuring that last year was the year. The NFL stayed pretty true to the form of the last ten years that for all the ballyhoo of 1st round QB choices they make up only 1 out of 4 of playoff teams. Last year of the 12 teams to make the playoffs, only Indy with Manning, Phlly with McNabb, and TN with McNair were in the playoffs. As the playoffs went on, McNair went down but it looked to me like Indy and most likely Philly going to achieve the goal of playing in the last game that all NFL teams are shooting for. Despite making up a clear minority of the teams, 1st round draft picks had survived to command 2 of the 4 final positions. Yet, the rule won out again as the cap consraints (which McNabb's salary are a large part of) left Philly with receivers who got tatooed by the Panthers led by a UDFA QB and Indy cap strapped so that their defense can't stop people in big games were further limited by the refs allowing NEs DBs to neutralize the potent Manning led offense and once again a 1st round drafted QB failed to deliver an SB berth for the team which drafted him. This year, I had once again made the judgment that this would likely be the year for a 1st rounc selection to break the jinx for the team which picked him. However, this is how I see it subject to change this last weekend AFC- my playoff guesses NE- QB'ed by a 6th roud pick Pitt- 1st rounder Indy- 1st rounder SD 2nd rounder Denver 2nd rounder by another team Bills 1st rounder by another team NFC Philly- 1st rounder AT- 1st rounder GB- 2nd rounder by another team Seattle- 6th rounder Minnesota- 1st rounder Carolina or STL- UDFA or 6th rounder This will truly be a landmark year for highly drafted QBs because they should makeup 50% of the playoff teams rather than the typical 25%. Even at 50% I still think this goes against the conventional wisdom that a team must draft a star QB or they are toast. Half the teams are going to get in using some other method. This is not surprising actually as all the other methods represent the field, but it does run against the conventional wisdom which has been fostered by the NFL marketing individuals rather than teams (which really win games), by the QB Club marketing machine and by the extraordinary QB draft of 1983. The ironies are that: 1. If the 1/2 of playoffs teams led by a highly touted QB they drafted wins or even makes the SB they will actually only be the exception that was a long time coming it will take a couple of years of winning performance by these QBs against the real world constraints of the cap to reallty set a new precedent. 2. The recent injury to Terrell Owens and the likelihood of cap constraints on Indy once again coming back to haunt them if they play on the road in bad weather may once again denty the two best QBs in the league an SB appearance. 3. Drew Brees may end up being textbook example ofthe follies of high round QB investment as the Chargers made the playoffs without any help whatsoever from their huge 1st round investment in Rivers and a QB capable of delivering SD to the playoffs at least is going to available on the market next year. So again, these results not only do not fly in the face yet of my arguments and actually have a 50/50 shot of confirming them yet again. Even if this year's occurence undermines the argument, it will be the first time a 1st round or high pick delivered an SB berth for the team which picked him it will still be arguably the exception which proves thre rule. Finally, my stomach is far from churning as I would love to see a goodgame and any good games (as long as the Bills ultimately win). Perhaps the most humorous thing about the Wall is how many folks seem to see their arguments as being somehow a measurement of them as people. The important thing to me here is entertainment and not winning or losing arguments which do not make any difference anyway because its only the internet.

My understading is that Lindell is signed for 2005 and 2006. He has 600K of prorated bonus left to be spread over those two years. His annual salry when he was signed started at 450K, but will balloon up to $825K next year and $950K in the final year of his contract and this base salary number will be added to the $300K per year to give you his cap hit. Ironically, this amount will not put his cap hit above the transition number for 2004 (this number will likely go up next year) of the average cap hit of the top 10 placekickers/punters and even at his max contract amount in 2006 will leave him slightly behind the current contract of the #10 cap hit which is Todd Sauerbrun of the Panthers. Overall, I think the scoop is that Lindell is statistically very good, but this is because the Bills have had relatively few close games generally winning or losing in blow-out fashion. When the games have been close like NYJ there or Jax here, the game simply hasn't come down to our kicker trying for the win or the tie. Lindell himself has remarked that he has gone longer than he has ever gone in his career without being called upon to make a game deciding kick. I don't even remember him being required to do this last year. Overall, I think one needs to be aware of the fact that the kickers game is generally judged by whether he is weapon to be feared for putting points on the board, but also his ability to directional kick or send them deep (increasingly a non-issue as the KO point is back to the 30 yard line) and his ability to kick the onside kick properly a couple of times a season. Lindell gets very high marks in the two latter categories as our kick coverage game has been outstanding (remember how we held down Curtis Martin and neutralized the Jet QB and lost the game a couple of years ago on 2 KRs for TDs). This is due to some great tackling and coverage, but the tackling happens because everyone understands exactly where the kick is going and Lindell has pulled this off and gotten enough height to give the coverage team time to get down there. Lindell also did a tremendous job the one time this season he was called upon to do the onside kick. The key is not only that he got it the required 10 yards, but that he faked the other team into believing it was going downfield and also that he sent it ten yards and not much further with the appropriate speed and pace because no Bill can even hit someone from the other team until it goes ten yards. I think the bottomline is that the Bills want their kicker to be a potent weapon like Vinateri or Vanderjagt are and Lindell is not that. However, he has been good enough and even excellent at the limited things he has been asked to do (placekick from the 40 in, directional kick for coverage, occaisionally onside kick) that I doubt the Bills will want to take on $300K of deadspace this year and next by cutting him (and certainly not the $600K of deadspace by cutting him before June of 2005). If the Bills were to draft Nugent in the 2nd or even 3rd round in April this would essentially mean that they had decided to eat Lindell's cap hit (because as a high draft pick Nugent will suck up additional cap room for his slot) and also that they are confident that Nugent can not only placekick with accuracy from long range, but that he is going to absorb and pull off the directional placekicking (or get Janikowski like distnce leading to touchbacks) and he is going to demonstrate the same competence at onsides that Lindell has. Maybe, but I really doubt this will happen. I think the interesting consideration regarding Lindell will be that the Bills actually took 6 points that he made off the board with belated timeout calls. In each case he actually made FGs kicks comfortably from beyond the 45. In one case, Bledsoe faked the plunge and lateraled it to WM who scored and in the other we lined up to kick it again and either because of a bobbled snap or by design Moorman missed barely a pass intended to advance the ball. It would not surprise me if Bobby April counts these as evidence that Lindell can make the long kick even though they are not on the stat sheet. Overall, TD has had a fairly stupid attitude toward the placekicking game as evidenced by his false good kickers are a dime a dozen comment when he cut Christie, so I don't see the Bills devoting big resources to investing in Nugent. Further, this would not only be an investment in him and them training him properly, but they would also have the deadspace for the Lindell investment. It would also mean admitting failure in the Lindell investment when my guess is that the team is quite pleased with his work on kickoffs and onside kicks and that they are at worse mopping their brows because we haven't needed him to win games. Ultimately, the braintrust may well have false hope in him if we need him to win games (he has missed a couple of short ones in bad conditions which were troubling to me), but it is hard for me to see them messing around with the kick coverage game when that is going well and messing around with it means taking a cap hit to do so.

Ha ho! I might refer to him from now on as Chemical Mark. He hasn't gassed anybody but judging from his most recent column he must be on some mind-altering substance to conveniently ignore some facts as he makes huge jumps in logic.

This a more positive way of framing my earlier question/apology of when/if folks gave up hope. I loved the answers it generated, because I think many people never lost hope though logic told us that we were done. This is pro football who needs logic? This is a question of when you (or if you) became a believer. Though I never lost hope I really did not believe there was anyway the Bills could come back and salvage this season after we got creamed in NE. However, I slipped into a one game at a time mode I have remained in until last weekend. It wasn't that beating a sorry SF team (even on the road) was such great shakes. I think someone who framed it as: Even after 4 wns in a row and manhandling Cleveland, the concept of winning out was still so unlikely and we would need help anyway that even though I believed in my heart, my head still said no way. After we beat a tier B level team in Cincy (they aren't good but at least they are headed in the right direction comfortably the occurences around the league in terms of us getting help were still unlikely but at least possible. We slapped SF as expected, but getting the help of both Baltimore losing (expected) and Jax losing (possible but unexpected) suddenly the possible still isn't likely but if we cam do what we're supposed to do first and formost then its very very possible we could make the playoffs. I pretty comfortably became a BILLIEVER last weekend. Still, I like the MM attitude that he will not talk about the playoffs atall because there are still things we have to do and still help we need that we cannot control. One thing is for sure. I am proud of these Bills today and hope and expect to be prouder of them after the Steelers game. The other two games will take care of themselves and win or lose no one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills

Right now which is all us fans care about the obvious choice is Bledsoe. However, it is this same addiction to the right now which we fans are addicted to which is exacerbated by human nature and American culture which caused many to want to throw Drew out immediately and claim contrary to the simple facts that this player who had QB'ed a team to the SB and played the majority of a must win game at QB had never won anywhere at any point in his pro career. Overall, I'd take Pennington because he has demonstrated that he is capable of QBing a team to the playoffs, he has demonstated good leadership characteristics prior to his meltdown this year and despite a weaker arm has good football instincts (as shown when he left Robinson in the dust on a TD run against the Bills). Like Bledsoe, Pennington is not perfect and has obvious failings, but like Bledsoe under Parcells who took his team to the SB and B who had Bledsoe play an essential role in their run to an SB win, the faults of most players can be worked around if you have developed a good team. If I had a straight up choice between the two, I.d take the younger guy on the frontside of his catreer who has proven he can win over the older guy who has proven he can win who is on the backside of his career.

I certainly don;t know what is going on in the locker room, though if Henry was in fact being such a punk and a cancer word has tended to leak out in the past about such behavior. Perhaps' BJH's friend of a friend who is connected is simply a sign of that leakage. However, waiting for some additional confirming friend of a friend sources would seen prudent given a couple of things: 1. Acting as a cancer rather than a teamer would seen to be contrary to past ACTIONS by Henry such as sucking it up an playing through pain as someone points out in a post above. Perhaps Henry has become a punk, but if he has this would be contrary to the actions which earned him a spot on the TSW wallpaper. 2. In the past Henry has said the wrong thing in particular cases such as his rap usic interview last year and his initial questioning of why the Bills drafted WM when they had him. However, these episodes appear to be individual occurences which can just as easily be explained by the competitive pride all pro athletes have (and one wants them to have) or some media idiot writing an article thst reflected their interest in creating a controversy rather than the idea of presenting a fuller more accurate picture that does not sell as many papers. henry has shown the ability to say the wrong thing, but it has never been the persistent rant which comes from a cancer and usually leaks out. if anything Henry hass demonstrated that someone is giving him good advice and he will put a sock in it and shut up when it suits his interest to be a good camper. 3. Being a cancer, punk or throwing a hissy-fit so obviously does not serve Henry's interests that even if he is an idiot he will realize it. His agent would have to be flat out stupid and willing to operate against the agents' own financial interests if he is counseling Henry to be an idiot and get himself cut by the Bills. An agent makes money by getting 4% or so (this is the going rate I have heard of lately) of a players contract. Henry's value is diminished because of his poor performance this season. it is further diminished by the uncertainty surrounding his injury. Why on earth he or his agent would judge this as the best time to get a big payoff or would seek to reduce his value even further by developing the reputation as a cancer or giving TD the ammo and a reason to let other GMs know that TH is such a cancer this recent Pro Bowler deserved to be cut is beyond logic. Sure athletes and even their agents have done dumb things before, but throwing a hissy fit would seem to so strike against Henry's and any agents financial interests that this form of suicide needs some substantiation before it is believable.

Agreed!

Actually, many posters on TSW are well aware that a team needs to play the game one week at a time and prepare to face a real opponent each week even if they are seemingly feeble teams like SF on the road or better teams at home. Folks have used the phrase "trap game" for numerous outings in our recent run to the extent that stevestojan got sick of it. I think that not even us posters and certainly not the team views this game against the Steelers as one they can mail in an effort on or one which already is a a win because RoboQB, Bettis, and Burris appear to be out and Duce Staley is slated by Pitts for reduced duty. One of the side effects of our 0-4, 1-5, 3-6 start is that the Bills have had to treat every game in the last 6 as a must win game and clearly the Pitts game is even more so a must win for the Bills that they must show up for regardless of who the opponent is.

Sure that we faced teams with bad records is a legit point. However, if one is going to focus on this legit point, then one needs to acknowledge also the spreadf by which they beat these bad teams, acknowledge the fact that many of the Bills blowout wins were on the road, and acknowledge that even in the NFL bad teams (MI) can beat far better teams (NE) and for a 6 straight games (a lengthy time in the NFL) there have been no relevant signs (beyond some slow starts by the bills in a couple of these games which were quickly reversed by the second quarter) of the Bills doing anything but manhandling their opponents. Weiler needs to admit that one needs to look hard for bad signs in the Bills play over ther last 6 games and that he has only found it by ignoring the real results of the teams margin of victory in these games. The analysis also defies reality because he seems to treat the Bills dominating opponents through consistently better ST play as somehow not counting in assessing whether this team is really good or not. I'd agree that the Bills offense is not at a Super Bowl or playoff level, but who cares if the team's play is at a playoff (or dare I say it) or SB level. The analysis: 1. Seeks to ignore real life occurences to prove its point. 2. Ignores true measures of the TEAM's performance in instead judges the TEAM based on the offenses performance.

One of the great ironies of life in the NFL is the importance of momentum for performance and the all to human difficulty folks have of turning on and off the supreme effort. It simply is going to be tremendously difficult for the Colts to show up to play Denver on Sunday. Yet, if they don't show up Sunday and in the first round ofthe playoffs they face a team that is on a roll they will have every chance of getting their head handed to them in that game. Dungy and Manning have both faced this occurence before as they led good teams into a meaningless final game, got their clocked clean as the players mailed it in and then they got beaten by a lesser group in the first round of the playoffs. The bottomline is that good teams dominate opponents every single game in the single elimination short course of the playoffs. I expect Indy to go into a shell if one of their starters gets hurt or if Denver takes it to them early. If this occurs, I think that there will be a fair to middlin shot that Indy will be done overall.