Fake-Fat Sunny

This seems to me to an expected side effect of the increased interaction between relgions and politics which is reflected in the activities from the Christian right becoming an essential part of GOP dominance at the polls to the folks in the Mid-East adopting religious dogma as a driver for political decision-making. The Scientologist, the Christian Right and Iraqi Muslim clerics are certainly very different in their beliefs, however, when you mix this with an American commitment to allowing individuals to chose their religion and the state not picking which religion is right, this is an outcome I expected of greater interaction between the government and religion. I hope folks who are demanding that government needs to show more support of religions providing essential social services and needs to not be negative to their relgion are aware that one should be careful of what you ask for because you might get it. I am starting to have a lot more respect for out founding fathers requiring some strong separation of church and state because when you begin to go down this road one gets on a slippery slope pretty fast and governmemt support of religions one may consider to be crackpots can happen pretty quickly. One man's Scientology is another man's Catholic Church pretty quickly, even though neither belief is the one I subscribe to.

Cliff notes: sorry no cliff notes as I was simply thinking out loud about the OL. I had fun and invite any interested in my or these ramblings to follow along. The end product of this thinking was a lot more comfort on my part in givng a $5 million annual contract to JJ (though I would not be shocked to see the market offer him no more than $3 million annually) and uf this happens then it is quite likely the Bills will see no need to buy or draft any OL players this year. I may be wrong because really who knows Cliff notes end. Again I would say that I certainly agree with the many posters who have identified improvement of the OL as a necessity for this team to get better. However, though i expect a significant part of our very nice but not huge salary cap stake to be spent getting a good OL player (particularly if the market allows JJ to go elsewhere). I will not be shocked if we make NO BIG OL FA purchase. I think the Bills got much better performance out of the OL in 04 because: 1. JMac is an adult at the OL coach position while Vinky and Ruel were simply not ready for primetime at this position. Larry Felser constantly pointed out that when you look at the past SB winners they averaged 10 years or so in experience for the OL position coaches and that Vinky got the job because he was a buddy of GW who had been around the league for a while but had ZERO OL position coach experience when he took the job. After 2 years they upgraded(?) to Ruel who had all of 1 year experience as OL coach with Detroit. JMac has well over a dozen years of OL position coach experience and made something out of very little in NYG molding this Dusty Ziegler led unit into an SB level team. It may not happen and we would probably profit from having more talented OL players, but it is not unreasonable at all that the Bills might make the judgment that JMac can squeeze the same (or dare I even say it) or greater improvement out of essentially the same players in a second year with them and we essentially stand pat if the FA market for JJ allows us to do so. 2. We ran a far more unpredictable offense under Clements than Kevin Killdrive. One of the main reasons for the Bills O failure last year and in particular from the mid-point of the season on was that Kevin Killdrive doggedly stuck with "his" way of doing things and refused to run a difficult to predict diversified offense. Once it became clear to opponents how pass-happy we were (part of this was DB's fault as I think he had an athlete's confidence in his arm that even on 3rd and 2 yards or less, Killdrive called too many pass plays and when he did call a run, DB would see some irresisitable opportunity and audible out of the run to a pass) they simply blitzed and blitzed some more because there was little need for them to worry about the run call. Clements did a great job with his game calls because he ran so many trick plays and odd plays that we essentially could not be predicted. This led to blitzers hanging back to diagnose the play before launching an attack or blitzing but not selling out on the blitz because we might run WM around the end, might go to a quick pass. or might even do a totally shocking thing and run Bledsoe on the QB draw and this uncertainty helped the OL and sack count alot. I will not be shocked if our 05 OL is: 1. RT- MW sticks with this position and JMac and the Bills try to build upon his improvement after his attitude got adjusted after he no-showed at the "voluntary" mini-camps and put on a bunch of weight. IF (and there is no certainty so it is an IF) he continues with the same rate of improvement we saw last year he can easily complete 05 being the OL player we expected and demanded from a #4 choice. 2. RG- Villarial is a JMac kind of guy (he chose him and he chose us in FA). One critical penalty on him early in the season was really the only fault in his game last year and even that penalty may well have been a phantom call by the refs. We showed great confidence in him by having no one behind him on the depth chart and he delivered by not getting hurt and playing virtually flawlessly. One big impact of having him around was that MW was overmatched simply being a professional in his 3rd year as a Bill and Vinky and Ruel had foolishly asked him to carry the even less experienced Pacillo at RG. Its no womder two of them were looking at each other in confusion as Bledsoe lay on the ground after getting sacked by two lesser players but vet DL opponents who had run some kind of stunt MW and Pacillo had never seen. Though he played virtually flawless ball later in the season, we can reasonably hope for improvement from Villarial because now that he has played in our O and been a Bill for a year, this vet can though even better chemistry with MW make the right side of our OL a force to be reckoned with on the rush and not a concern at all in pass pro. C- Teague is generally regarded as having had a very good year and through a good brain which he has always had become a true leader of the OL. 04 was not perfect for him as he missed several games to injury and the memory of him getting put on his backside too often in 03 still is there. However, I think his problem in the past was not physical ability as he has consistently shown me that he is a good athlete for an OL player and I have little problem with him being undersized because he has player for Denver and now JMac in a schme where an undersized OL player can still be very effective. I think that his past problems which cannot be denied by a careful watcher were actually from a difficulty in multi-taking rather than from him simply being undersized or not good enough. He had to learn to make line calls as a C, learn to do the occaisional shotgun snap (a real adventure when he started and thank gosh that Bledsoe was a great ballhandler dealing with inconsistent snaps though I think even this hurt Bledsoe in dealing with the blitz as he often had to focus so much on receiving the snap he did not see changes the D was making, and still do his fundamental job of physically handling DTs who were getting bigger and bigger. Teague has the potential to really improve his game by remaining healthy a full season (fortunately he has shown he is a good healer after getting wiped out in Denver but recovering and getting wiped out in mid-season last year but recovering his effectiveness as shown in the winning streak. If he shows the same level of improvement and can remain healthy he will be a C we are proud of (which after Kent Hull takes alot). LG- As flks correctly diagnosed this is a big player wildcard, though actually I think many posters are panicking a bit in the assumption that we MUST find a new player at LG in FA or the draft. First, particularly if we are breaking in a new LT if we lose JJ then it unfortunately becomes more critical that we get a vet to play LG. Any new LT will be learning the position or the at least the team and adding the extra burden of teaching and/or carrying a rookie, even a talented one like a Baas is a bit much to ask and exect the production we want. I see the Bills with two realistic internal options at LG. First, is the longer shot that though Smith was inadequate at RG last year, you gotta put that in context of how far he came. He went from being on the PS of a different team in '03 to being a starter on the Bills in '04 and this is simply and outrageous jump in level by a player. It is not unreasonable to hope for a young player to have the same level of improvement in one year that he had the year before. If Smith were to replicate his level of improvment from PS on squad to starter on another in 05 I'm not sure what the equivalence is, but he would be a near or definite Pro Bowl level player! I actually do not expect this level of continuous improvement as it would even be more outrageous than last year's jump (it would have been a good year for him to merely make another squad and be an active back-up much less a starter). However, I do not think that folks should write off Smith as a failed experiment. He had two relatively specific problems which forced him to the bench as the season drew to a close and Tucker replaced him: 1. He oddly showed bigger problems in run blocking rather than the not bad performance he had in pass pro. Usually it is the other way around and blockers have to master the pass pro part of the game where they must react and the stakes are high (the QB's health) rather than run blocking which the blocker like because they are pro-acti9ve and dictate the point of attack. Do not be shocked if Smith is diligent in working out to cut his body fat in the off-season and to watch a lot of film to really learn the Clements game that he may honestly challenge for the LG slot. The second option has even a better chance of working as Tucker, being a Princeton grad has proved to be a bright boy capable of playing C well as he back-up Teague last year during the injury and he even came into this league as a tackle. He should be up to improving his game even more and mastering the LG spot, though I actually would feel more secure if Smith took the spot and Tucker could give us a quality back-up at both guard positions and the center position. LT- This is the big FA wildcard. Up until thinking out loud (or in photons) in this post I have actually been an advocate of letting JJ go because I though I think he is a solid player, I don't think he merits franchise or even transition OL money ($7 million a year or $6 million a year). I actually think that the high salaries which LTs have commanded paradoxically does not mean we will have to pay through the nose for JJ (we might but shouldn't because all it takes is for one idiot to overspend on him to make him too expensive to sign) but in fact means now that there will be limited demand for LTs because teams have already committed to long-term big contracts to LTs (8 of the top 10 OL cap hits) and even lesser talented players like Clifton and Pettigout have gotten long-term $5 million contracts which take their teams out of the LT market. Add into that better LTs than Jennings with clear records of better performance (like Pro Bowl recognition) or playing the whole season (which JJ has never done in his career like Jones, Pace and Tra Thomas apparently will be on the market, I was happy to see the Bills only sign JJ if we could get him for a lower cap hit than we were paying Teague ($2.6 million) who i see as a likely candidate to move to LT if we can't re-sgn JJ. In fact the highest cap hit on the OL in 05 will be MW whose cap hit of about $6 million is really LT money.. The market may be such that though their will be offers to JJ that are more money than he has ever seen before, he will actually be offered much less than LTs have recently gotten. AT for example would be an obvious place for him to go, but they will need to cut people it seems merely to make the cap after FA signings like Peerless and giving a $100 million to Vick. The Vikes for example are on of the teams with big cap room, but they are committed to McKinnie contractually and will not make a big offer to Jennings most likely with their big cap cushion. I was happy to see the Bills push JJ to the wall and potentially make a $2.6 million dollar deal the best he could do (what a booby prize). Despite my thanks but not thanks ranting about JJ I actually after thinking things through in this post I am actually happier for the Bills to sign him to a big buck offer. If JJ were to resign, I hope and expect great things from him and his LG mate as he has played with both Tucker and Smith before. If we resign JJ for the $5 million I am now willing to see us spend on him, i actually feel quite comfortable with us also resigning Price to a hefty but not huge deal to back-up both tackle slots for us. If we resign JJ I do not see us making any new OL acquisitions as I feel quite comfortable that JMac will get even better performance out on an OL which features JJ,Smith,Teague,Villarial and MW and has Price backing up both tackles, Tucker backing up all the interior lines slots, and behind these 7 some combination of projects and deep deep back-ups from McFarland, Peters, Pruce, Espositio and Pucillo. There are alot of variables caused by FA, but don't be surprised if we don;t draft or pick-up an FA OL guy if we resign JJ.

It's such a rare thing to win (just ask Marino) or even make the SB (just ask Manning) even if you are one of the best at your position, I can easily see how as long as he can strap it on that you would choose to be active for the game. So much of the game is emotion normally, and even more so with the SB (hence the many blow-outs) that I can also see that if properly handled and done, having TO there will be a big help to Philly even if his contributions on the field are minimal. Add to that some Lloyds of London institution tpe being more than happy to bet on Terrell being able to play or not play by insuring him against particular losses of career ability if he worsens the injury by playing and the decision to play becomes a virtual no-brainer.

A few footballphiles recently produced a study which looked at the performance (based on receptions, yardage, TD passes etc( looking at the performance of first round QB draft choices over the past 10 tyears and whether starting them right away or sitting them had any effect (I didn't save the link but will try to find it). Not surprisingly to me they found that there was no single timeframe for having a QB start which dictated success in most or all cases. There are simply too many examples of folks like Manning who played well from the start (though the team's W/L remained 3/13) or even RoboQB this year and many examples of the Pennington's who even sat for two years and then QB'ed them to the playoffs or Brady who sat for a year and won the SB is second year and first as a starter. Surprisingly even to me though was that they found that though there was no one way that their statistics clearly showed that QBs who sat a year tended to perform better later in their careers as opposed to players who were started quickly. The described a number of factors such as bad teams tend to want need a new QB quickly so the bad records associated with players started quickly may have more to do with them playing for bad teams. However, I think that the convenitional wisdom that QBs ONLY can learn by playing is simply wrong in many cases. Real life anecdotes from some QBs support this view as when Raven's QB Kyle Boller said during interviews in the 04 draft that he was surprised to find when he was forced to the bench by injury after starting to find that there actually were things he could learn from the bench we he could not learn as well why playing. I think this observation makes sense as when you are playing, in order to perform you focus on the next play and only even think about past plays to the extent you may choose to stay away from a platy which failed or go back to something that worked. In fact it is often said the best QBs have incredibly short memories not getting too hung up or beating themselves up about plays which did not work or getting too over-confident and too predictable in celebrating stuff that woked. At any rate it depends upon the individual. JP strikes me as actually have a unique opportunity to profit from his injury forced benching as it provided an early opportunity to do what folks are calling for him to do this offseason which is to become Sam Wvche's adopted son and soak things up from this former HC.

Hey the first George Bush got sick and even threw up on the Chinese on camera so these types of events have a rich presidential tradition.

I hope she is OK and can return to work carrying NYS water to the fderal dollar trough. This is ironic because I think a friend of mine was at the Saturn Club and I actually passed on spending $100 to attend this event because I doubted one woul really get the access and face time amidst a group of 50-100 which attended this event for the bucks. I'll let folks know what my buddy says were the details of the collapse (if there is anything of note) when I talk with her.

Do you have any objective data to support that or is this the usual fact-free opinion we are all entitled to have. My sense is that what the Colts would certainly get from Henry until proven otherwise by poor play by him is the threat that a former Pro Bowl RB brings. It is this threat which makes an O put defenders on the OL to guard against the run rather than simply run the nickel or the dime all the time to complicate the Manning pass game that is the prmary benefit an RB brings to the Colts O. I have little doubt Henry can be stopped and denied, but opposing defenses need to run their standard D at least if not stack the line a bit on his better days to stop Henry from pealing off the 1300+ yards he racked up in 2 of his 4 seasons. The threat of production rather than simply the production is the contribution I think he would make. Pass catching ability is the second issue and there is a marked difference between the high 50s low 60s production of James and the low 40s production that Henry had in his best year. However, part of this difference is likely to be made up because Henry will be catching passes from Peytom Manning rather than Bledsoe. Did Henry drop some critical passes in 2003? Yes. Were his drops a showing of a big time droppsie problem like that shown by Josh Reed or was it just the unfortunate but not unusal drops of an NFL player? I think it was the latter as his problems didn't even come close to the real problems evidenced by a Reed and mostly reflects the overblown frustration of us Bills fans. A third issue is the blitz pick-up and while I would defintiely not judge Henry to be anywhere near as good at the blitz pick-up as the great one's like Thurman, again I think this seems an overblown issue amongst us Bills fans who care a lot about our team rather than a big issue in Henry's game. I say this because: 1. Henry struggled as almost all rookies do with blitz pick-up (WM for example sucked at it early this season) but it certainly was not talked about a lot or seen as a problem his second year when he made an appearance at the Pro Bowl or his third year when he made the opening page of TSW as an embodiment of the Bills spirit. I think this is an issue which sprung up here on TSW when folks turned on him rather than this being an issue for focus in his game. 2. Among the sack problems for the Bills, the blitz pick-up issue was well down the list of important causes as folks more correctly identified deficits in OL play and the relative immodbiliy of Bledsoe as bigger factors in any sack problems than blitz pick-up issues. 3. The sack numbers did go down as the season went on and that number coincided with WM taking over for TH, but these correspondence is different than finding a direct cause and effect. Observers definitely noted an upturn in producton of OL play which was separate from a blitz pick-up issue as ME received a gameball for his improved play and the OL developed chemistry. In addition, the O game plan definitely found and employed Bledsoe's faking and running ability as the season went on and successfully using this resulted in plays like the WM scamper for a TD on a fake QB sneak and several QB draws by Drew for positive yardage and most important setting the blitx back a little. The sack numbers dropped but these strategic differences seemed more important than the blitz pick-up issues. 4. Due to the quick release of Manning I suspect that blitz pick-up will need to be part of the focus for any RB, but not a big deal in figuring how Henry fits into an Indy O. There are still some issues which may make you correct that Indy would have no interest in Henry, but actually from what I see these are the same cap constraints which may stop an Indy investment in James may also make a lesser investment into a lesser player like Henry not a viable option for Polian. However, I think you are wrong to totally dismiss the Colts interest based on their O style and Henry's play because having a former Pro Bowler with a couple of productive running seasons in his brief career who has demonstrated the ability to catch 40+ receptions in a season seems to fit quite well with giving Peyton the time and the safety valve for his bread and butter of going deep.

Your collection of Bommer data is probably the best argument I have seen that he will not get in, and actually the strongest part of this is that he is not even on the finalist list. Hpwever, there is still a question which will get him considered which is reflected in the post-season data. Bledsoe will likely get credit from the HOF Committee for being on the Pats 2001 SB winning team since like it or not he did play an essential role in their drive for the prize by playing QB in the majority of the AFC Chanpionship game and throwing the winning TD amidst some pretty pedestrian total stats for the game. If there are advocates for Bledsoe in the popularity contest known as the HOF committee hey will argue with enough validity for it to be rational that he was 2-0 in AFC Chanpionship games (the win under Parcells and the win under Belichick). They will further argue that his essential role in the 2001 run makes him 1-1 on SB teams even if it was Brady who did the job in the game. It's going to come down to a popularity contest and this has already produced illogical results like Ralph not getting in and come questionable HOF choices who did get in. The popularity contest will largely be determined about the competition of other QBs that Bledsoe faces. He cannot beat the Kelly and Elways (who are long retired and thus already in). I think he can probably beat the Testaverde's, the Trent Dilfer' and possibly even the Kurt Warner's who had better year's but not the longevity.

As much as folks hate to admit he definitely has a shot even if her were to retire today. In the end, this is a popularity contest with many folks who we think are no-brainers to add (Ralph Wilson) not getting in and a few questionable sorts getting in (I don;t even want to have that argument so I won't name names. Bledsoe will have a tough time because he has not really led a team to an SB victory which along with top 10 QB stats in some aspects of the game, and various storied achievements which rep is built upon (Pro Bowl appearances, revival of your play over a number of years, a rep as a gamer and teacher of next generation) are things which can allow you to win a popularity contest among the HOF pickers. Yet, though Bledsoe has not led a team to SB glory, this is not a disqualifier if you have an advocate willing to pitch your name based on other factors. Bledsoe has the longevity and various pass happy offenses to rack up top 10 QB #2 even if it is mostly in passes attempted or other volume stats. He had made the Pro Bowl a number of times and it occured when folks had written him off as done as when he came to the Bills in 2002. He has a rep as a real gamer who thinks team first and Brady gives him credit for helping him develop when he had to step in for Bledsoe. Add to that he did lead one team to the SB under Parcells which is more than many better QBs did (Peyton to date and equal to Marino) and in fact did play an essential role in playing QB in the majority of a must win game and throwing the winning TD against Oakland in their 2001 SB season. Will Bledsoe make the HOF? Who knows Ralph isn't in, but who kbnows Ralph isn't in. Despite the Bledsoe haters he certainly will get real consideration and if you are in the mix it really comes down to whether you have enough buddies on the HOF committee willing to carry your water. I think the critical factor for Bledsoe will be how long he plays and thus the competition when he is eligible to go in. If he is up against the Kellys and the Elways fuggabouit they will recognize the better QBs. However, if he is up against the Testaverde's, the Dilfer's or even the Warner's then my guess is that he is in.

My advice to the Bills (which I do not have to sell to them because TD anf the gang already belived this) is to ignore and to ffuuggaabout this advice. It is advice to fans also who just say rediculous things on the internet (including myself because though I have taken the advice below to heart, I'm just a fan so I say my share of rediculous things) is this: IGNORE THIS ADVICE COMPLETLY BECAUSE FOR A GM OR A TEAM TO FORGET ABOUT OR EVEN POORLY MANAGE THE CAP IS TO CONSIGN YOUR TEAM TO YEAR AFTER YEAR OF LOSING. I know that many of us fans want to ignore the salary cap and simply return to the food ol days when understanding football was mostly about the estimating/guessing how good a player an athlete would be. However, the fact is it ain't your mother's NFL anymore and the marker reflected in the salary cap and the relatively balanced economic playing ground that all teams now face influences somewhat to heavily all player decisions and building a winning team in the NFL. The NFL used to be a sport that also happened to be a business, and now its a business that also happens to be a sport. This "mere" flip-flopping of words has simply changed the nature of the game in big ways. Teams which are smart about their football choices and also manage the cap do well. Teams can still be incredibly smart about their football choices but if they fail to manage the cap they do poorly. There are also elements of dunb luck which can kill your team, but if you manage the cap poorly, it does not appear you can even get lucky you are doomed. As far as the semi real world of football and Lindell, this is the bottomline as far as I can see it: 1. Many fans who at least take the cap into account make the mistake of merely comparing the Lindell cap hit to a proposed Nudge cap hit but that is not a correct way to gauge the impact. Comparing the pretty definite Lindell cap hit (roughly $600 K if cut before June 1st, roughly $300K this year and next if cut afterwards with a tital cap hit around $1.3 million if you keep him) to some proposed Nudge slotting depending on where he is drafted is not the most correct way to look at this. For example if we would have to get a higher draft pick to be assured of getting Nudge (I assume that if he is as good as folks say other NFL professionals will mak this assumption and Nudge will attract a Janikowski like pick or at worst go earlier than we pick in the 2nd round) you do not to merely compare the two cap hits and judge who is the better player for what he is paid. Understand that the Bills are going to have to pay Lindell $600K or $300K each year for two years IN ADDITION to the hit for Nudge. From the Bills perspective we have a budget for placekicking and if we exceed that we will be forced by the cap to get a likely lesser (definitely cheaper) player at another position or positions. If anyone wants to ask the question of whether Nudge is worth it, then add $600K or $399K in each of the next two seasons to his salary. Its already a leap to pick a K in the first or with your first pick. Add to that the deadspace of a Lindell cut and Noodge if we have to acquire a 1st to be sure of getting him will have: 1. An extraordinary cap hit for a kicker since they usually don't go in the first. Our first two picks last year Evans and Losman both over $1 million cap hits (a low base salary plus an amortized bonus) and this is what our kicker is paid if we slot him in at a place where we are sure to get him. Folks are talking about paying an unproven rookie at nearly the same level a Jason Elam or a Matt Stove gets. If he is the greatest kicker ever this is more than fine, but is this a bet that anyone can reasonably make. 2. Its even a bigger bet than that because if you add in the deadspace the placekicking position will take by adding the slotted Nudge hit to the deadspace Lindell hit you now are talking a cap hit which comfortably exceeds the cap hit of a John Kassy (a good kicker who has missed some critical kick after many flawless hits) and in fact Nodge would be paid as a rookie a top 5 cap hit likely exceeding the cap hit of Longwell, Gardocki and Mare who undeservedly or deservedly have top 5 placekicker cap hits. 3. The actual total value of Nudge for the Bills actually woould be a savings on the bottomline as we woul likely have to trade value to move our pick up. If we tradeded a pick to move up in the second or for a first rounder we actually will take on the penalty of having one less resource (be it a 4th roun pick or whatever) to move up. We save on the cash, but in essence we are that much less of a team in terms of resources or people to play with. If you want to declare some equivalence add the NFL minimum salary to the resources used to acquire Nudge which puts his value up near the $2 million annual cap hit Adam Vinateri gets. In the end, there is a bet that Nudge is worth it, but my guess is that if you are going to pay Adam Vinateri money, you are probably better off getting a more proven vet like lets say an Adam Vinateri who is an FA this year. I can see the acquisition of Nudge making some sense because he is so well regarded, but from a cap standpoint it makes no sense if his slotting mandates he is our first pick, probably makes no sense if he is a second rounder and at least starts to beome more logical in the 3rd or 4th round but is still a jump because of the deadsplace of the Lindell cut. Lindell for what it is worth was simply bad bad bad in terms of missing the chip shot and MM showing no confidence in him (for good reason based on his record) at 40 yards or more. However, all those who do claim cutting him is a no brainer instead show they probably have no brains because our return coverage team was great this year and the superior tackling simply depends upon your kicker kicking it where he is supposed to and eveyone is planning on with the proper hang time every time. Add to that Lindell doing a positively masterful job on 1 of the two onside kicks he was called upon to do this year as he faked the normal kick-off well enough the opponents never suspected. He also not only kicked it the requisite 10 yards but did the very difficult task of not only kicking it the proper distance but with the right speed and pace that he was able to make the recovery himself and make it before any Bill hit anybody which is one of the onside requirements. In the ned, moving up to draft Nudge seems to be a bad move from my perspective and the huge contract the Bills signed with Lindell makes it very hard to take him before the 3rd or even the 4th round slot and he will probably be gone. My sense of the likely course of action is that the Bills will bring in a serious FA kicker to challenge Lindell in the pre-season (an Ariens- hah or a Graham- more reasonable) and Lindell will have to win the job on the field.

I actually am surprised that no one provided a factual answer to your question which seems based on the misconception that all 1st round QBs start at least one hame as rookies and that not starting as a rookie hurts long term development. In terms of particular folks, Pennington did not start a game his first year and actually did not even start a game his second year untik he became the starter his third year and led the Jets to the playoff. Carson Palmer is another recent example who comes to mind of a first round pick and in fact one of the earliest players taken in his draft year who did not start any games as a rookie. I'm sure there are other examples because an exhaustive study (and I do mean exhaustive as it was even longer than one of my longwinded posts) was done of QB success in the last 10 years or so which was found that there was no one time of starting a developing QB which guaranteed success or failure, but that quite clearly QBs who sat their first year outperformed QBs who started their first year in terms of measures like overall record and playoff appearance. This could well be explained by QBs who start as rookies generally playing for bad teams and QBs who sat were with teams that had aa better QB playing, but generally the notion offered by ICE and others that a 1st round drafted QB MUST start is simply wrong. I can try to find the study if you are interested.

I agree nodnarb with Bill that a sign and trade makes little sense for the Bills to do because any bonus becomes immediate dead space and if TD has demonstrated anything its that he hates deadspace. Add to that I think you suscribe far more value to draft picks than TD has shown (he is happy to trade this fantasy asset for immediate real world contributions such as replacing RJ in 2002, in exchange for training time for JP as he correctly identified the QB draft class as weak this year, and has shown that picks can be required as he used tagging PP to produce a pick which became WM are real-life xamples of him seeing draft picks as little more than a tool rather than a value worthy of weighing us down with deadspace. I'd go back to the drawing board on this one.

This post does seem to flat out contradict your earlier post because you say it is possible TD already has a deal in place and this possibility sounds like an additional "anything" to me. You are right that he might be showing desperation cause there are no bites, but you are also right in your second post that he may already have a deal done. Who knows and there is no authoritative information to insist a deal is done or to insist Henry has no value. What little we do know of public statements made by folks (which may up beomg true or not vome March is: 1. TD has done a good job for the Bills by letting Henry and his agent do TDs work for him by releasing Henry to find a deal. No trade can be done til March but in the real world some buzz has been created and TD and the Bills are getting valuable information in terms of scoping out the market without him having to use chits to do this before the market is more clear. 2. Henry seems to have bought into this job lock, stock and barrel and he and his agent are out there trying to sell him, and he has moved to FL and created even more momentum for a deal with Miami and a back-up with TB as well as him going on record naming a handful of other teams (Oak, etc,) that he says have expressed an interest in him, 3. Outside of TB, no one has responded publicly to Henry;s public declaration of trade interest. The absence of these declarations tells us little except that TH is in play. 4. Miami is saying a number of things consistent with them being actually interested including Nick Saban declaring public interest in an RB. TD has gone further to publicly state that a trade within the division is possible. Otherwise we'll see. I disagree with anyone who insists that the real world events say or imply there is no interest in Henry. On the contrary, expressions of interest may be lies, but they are definitely there unless TH's agent is making up stuff which can easily be shown to be false and will build his reputation as a lar unless the teams named by Henry have exoressed an interest in him (though that interest may well be false(. You seem to draw contradictory conclusions in your two posts (which is fine) except in your first post you express a belief in a particular outcome which may be true but runs counter to the public declarations that have been made.

Lots of folks take their right to state their opinion about where Nugent should be taken, but in order for this to be more than usual fact-free opinion the key to this is not an alleged assessment of Nugent's value as a player reflected in a round of the draft (the round a player is chosen is more heavily influenced by the supply and demand of the marketplace rather than some pretend absolute statement of his value (Chris Kelsay is a good example as many pundits had him ranked as a 1st round pick and he has actually gained a starting role in his second year as a pro on one of the highest ranked by stats Ds in the NFL. Yet, TD correctly passed on taking him with a pick in the 20s in the 1st round and instead made him a second round pick because supply and demand had taken all the teams with a DL need out of the competition for Kelsay with 8 or so prior first round DL choices).but instead to identify which teams have a need for a kicker and where they are likely to pick Nugent to meet this need. I haver seen no opinion which a reader should take seriously about where Nugent is going to be picked because there statements only seemed to be based on the fact-free opinion everyone is entitled to about how much of a player he is an no state assessment of what teams have a kicking need and where they would pick Nugent to fill it. I'd love to see a little reality here because I haven't taken the time to know and will really benefit and appreciate if someone takes the time,

Definitely has not backed up his grand pronouncement that this was his team, by showing on the field and leading them to a victory that could have been theirs if the offense had but a not unreasonable number of points on the board. Bledsoe does not deserve total blame (or even the majority of the blame in my mind) for the loss to Pittsburgh as the ST deserves a healthy chunk of the blame for making mistakes like the punt funble and most of all for missing a chip shot field goal, and the D deserves its own healthy chunk for giving up over 100 yards rushing to a 4th string RB and giving up valuable yardage and time to Pitts bring led by a disaster QB. However, the equal shares of the loss to the inadequate efforts of the other two units does not absolve Bledsoe from his share of the blame and make his pronouncement that his is his team reasonably answered by saying OK, but so what. However as much blame as their is reasonably for Bledsoe within the context of the truth that QBs get too much credit for wins and also too much blame for losses is actually an expression of happiness that the Bills braintrust is not following your adice and simply handing the starting job to JP. The general word that every starter must earn his job and the general room being provided to the media for JP to win the starting job on the field is totally the right thing to do in mind. Designating him the starter at this point without him showing much on the field would be the wrong thing to do if you want to win. JP partisans may want to argue that he never got a chance to show what he could do. Yep. However, with his injury it would have been stupid to give him the starter's job when he was injured and given that the TEAM was piling up victories in the streak changing the chemistry to allow JP the time to learn the game by making errors would have been dumb as well. JP demonstrated no unreasonable progress for a first timer in his mop-up duty, but its hard for me to think anyone rationally thinks he was ready to starts and we would have even a fighting chance to win game with lack of command of the team he showed in the two mop-up performances he was prepared for when he ran them. It was a very good sign that after taking a dumb delay of game penalty in his first mop-up of a win and then "improving" to not a dumb penalty because of his lack of command and only to take an unnececessary TO, he righted the ship of state and drove us to TDs in each game. I was particularly impressed with his extended play in the game where he converted a third and long and also completed a nice pass on the move to Trafford to move the sticks. Yet, his failures when he came into both games and his unecessary dive for a couple of yards after he already has the needed first down demonstrated that he has great potential but was not ready for primetime (yet). Even when he was thrown to the wolves against NE, he was set-up to not impress, but the really good athletes overcome these negative situations and at least show poise if not positive movment. He showed neither with his poor ball handling that led o a fumble and INT. I'm psyched about JP and his potential, However, he can and should win the job on the field and the Bills braintrust should not designate him the starter. He definitely will have to learn before he produces so we should not give up on him (as Farve, Young and Dilfer were given up on before they played QB for SB winning teams) even though in camp, preseason or starting there will be errors. However, this needs to be balanced by not mollycoddling him as though he were some girlyman and giving him the starting job out the box, even if we cut/trade Bledsoe.

When traveling the country (which I have done often for conferences) people will hear me say I'm from Buffalo. NY and often they will ask me how close is that to New York City. I will reply that we're actually more midwestern in Buffalo than east coast. They generally seem to have trouble believing that, but when I give an example that here in Buffalo we call drinks like Coca-Cola "pop" as we did in Chicago where I grew up, but in NYC they call it "soda" you can see them begin to understand. If the conversation calls for more examples I point out that while it is a 7-9 hour drive to NYC (depending on where you are going and the traffic) it only is about a 4-5 hour drive to Detroit over the top through Canada. Further, because the coast moves west as you go south it also is 8 hours to Philly and 8 hours to DC they begin to understand that geography is deceptive. Its a funny country than how we normally think of it an language begins to tell the tale. It's a hoagie in some places, a sun in others, it;s a grinder to some and a hero to others. In Nawlins its a muffaleta, but pusch comes to shove they we all are lingusitically different its good eatin for most of us who really have much more in common than we have different.

I thnink you're over thinking this from a Bills fans perspective. A competing GM will view this mostly in terms of what having a former Pro Bowl RB running for them will do for their team. The main factor here will be visions of what Corey Dillon did for NE in their minds (they likely will ignore the fact that they are not NE and Henry isn't Dillon. The key to this is not our over-assessment of Henry but assesing what potential trade partners will see for them in a deal. Regardless of what you or I think about Henry this is my sense of his rep: 1. Former Pro Bowl player who produced about 1400 yards as a rusher in 2002 and 2003. 2. Certainly not the brightest bulb in the locker room, but this actually came in handy for the Bills as they got a year's extension on his contract for chump change because he managed his money poorly. He's no one you would depend on to learn and run complex routes but football isn't brain surgey and he will play the game. 3. Developed a rep as an athlete who can play and produce through pain producing yardage in 2003 with a fracture which was painful but did not keep him out of games. 4. There are some injury questions about him given the fracture and an injury that ended his work this year, he must pass the docs review. 5. Has not shown great receiving skills but did catch over 40 tosses in 2002 indicating he can produce when used this way. Some complaints about a few bad drops in 2003 as the entire Bills O fell apart, but is not noted as having the droppsies as other Bills such as Reed ere. 5. Has never excelled at the blitz pick-up but this has never been noted as the biggest problem causing the Bills to have major sack issues behind an OL with non-coaching under Vinky and Ruel and operating with a QB who was less than mobile, My sense is that this is what the NFL generally thinks of Henry and though you may disagree with the assessment, it is one that the pundits and league seems comfortable with as TD declaring he wants a 2nd rounder has not been met with guffaws around the league. In the end, I think the biggest driver may be the desire of Miami to want a former Pro Bowk RB that they can market to move beyond the Rickey Williams days. They may end up disappointed with Henry but he is a product which they can sell.

Thanks

The LT market is not set yet, and won't be until the FA lists are established or look close to being so, so the tagging option is really a market estimating game. Many fans seem to make the mistake of viewing the negotiation process as a competition between the player and the team, but I think this is the old model of the pre-CBA NFL. Rather than competition as warfare, the competition is within the framework of a growing partnership between the owners and the players. However, the likely answer is not to tag JJ because my guess is that tagging him will be a pretty bad approach to any LT market. I say this because: 1. The Bills profitedfrom tagging Peerless, but the FA market for PP is very different from the FA market for Jennings, 2. Peerless was judged to be one of if not the best WR in FA that year. As Thomas and Jones are likely to hit the market and maybe Pace will not be taged again Jennings is no where near the top of the available LT market. 3. As a player who has never played a full season as a pro due to injury, an often penalized player and as a player who is good but can be beaten (Abraham beathim like a drum in the first Jets game) he does not seem to merit a franchise salary if he were tagged. He is solid but not a top 10 OL player. 4. The LT market has given huge contracts in the past, but exactly because so many teams have committed to LTs from the great to the average there will not be nearly the market competition for Jennings that created the past big salaries. 5. Not only do the many big LT salaries drive down the number of competitors for JJ, but overall cap levels are a limiting factor. AT for example is a place he wants to go that could use a better LT, but the 100+ million Vick contract and the big FA contract to Peerless means that this team is going to have cut players to merelh make the cap much bid big for JJ. 6. The Bills have ample replacement options for JJ in house (MW. Teague, Price) and if they move an existing player replacing a center or RT willl be cheaper than buying an LT. There seem to be many reasons not to tag him and you still might get him for more money than he has ever seen bur for a relative song in terms of FA LTs.

I just did my own too long post on the TE slot so I will try to read your OL post and give it some thought and maybe my own too long response later today or probably tomorrow (my lovely wife is downstairs having girl talk with one of her buddies who is visiting us this weekend so I'm free to Bills out this morning but uspect we will be entertaining much of the day). Thanks for your thoughts. My inital reactions as the lunchbell rings are: 1. I think there is actually a different framework for your restive Tom Brady salary cap impact thinking. He signed a 6th round level deal when he was drafted and it already has been extended by the Pats to give him more money than he ever got from a paycheck before even though it is far less than his market value if he were an FA. I doubt he is very restive since he both is better paid than he imagined he would be and he gets the benefit of winning SBs and is making even more money because they win SB (the cause of his recent GM suit). i see know signs that he wants to kill the goose that is laying golden eggs for him by demanding that the Pats go off contract and give him more dollars. 2. I agree that building a great OL is a key to the Bills being a great team. However, though I think they may use the draft and FA to get better players, I do no discount the possibility that the Bills braintrust may have decided to take the general approach of developing essentially the resources we have on hand right now into that great OL. I think they could use some talent infusion. However, i do not discuount the possibility that they may actually invest in JMac and his demonstrably good job this year to try to develop the players we have into a great OL rather than hitting the market for new better players who they will teach the Bills way. JMac is the guy who got SB level play out of Dusty Ziegler and his career has not been one as best as I can tell of spening a load o get the best talent, but instead to get the best production possible out of the talent he has. I will be disappointed but not shocked to see a Bills 2005 OL of: 1. Jennings- I think the Bills will resign him if he comes cheap and I think folks are now catching on to the fact that this market is not that huge as many NFL teams have already overspent at LT and those with something left to spend under the cap will look at Tra Thomas, Walter Jones and Orlando Pace first before they blow a wad on Jennings. 2. Smith- Already has achieved more than should reasonably be expected from him moving from the PS elsewhere to starting at LG here. Not aequate as a player in '05, but oddly did better at pass pro than run blocking even though usually pass pro is more difficult to teach. If JMac makes the no unreasonable conclusion that Smith will improve the same amount in 05 that he did in 94 maybe the Bllls see him as the starter. I don't ake this claim but maybe they do. 3. Teague- He has much improved in his play as this fairly recent player at C learns the game. he is much better at mult-tasking now an does not get bullrushed onto his wallet as much as making line calls, shotgun snaps, and the other duties a center must perform seemed to not allow him to focus on the physical job of stopping big DTs. However, he is getting this down so it is neither unreasonable to me that the Bills go with him or shift him back to the LT spot he first wanted if Jennings is gone. 4. Vilarial- God player at RG 5. MW- Stunk last off-season and the first few games but got his atttitude adjusted and seems to have righted his play. He is even a possible move to LT if Jennings goes because of his improved (not there yet but improved) play. The move actually creates potential for us as I think we have no real candidates to jump for a back-up OL role for us to guard the QB's blindside, but we do have the potential for the back-ups to assume the RT role if MW is judged capable of moving. 6. Price- In many way a more important FA signing that Jennings because Price goves us a quality nback-up at both tackle slots and another possibility who can clearly play LT in short bursts so the question is whether he could do it full time. I like him as a back-up for two slots. 7. Tucker- Filled in admirably at C for Teague when injury called him and actually gives us perhaps a starter option at LG if Smith cannot improve beyond his big improvement last year or even at RT as this was how he came into the league if MW makes the move. 8. McFarland- saw some gametime late in the season so JMac thinks something of him. 9. Peters- Most likely made a tackle in my mind to emphasize to him that his receiving may be great but his blocking is a big enough liability he will never be used that way at TE unless he learns to block. Yet his great ST play last year indicates he is clearly an athlete so maybe the braintrust sees something in practice about him I can never see and he really is a tackle. 10. Pacillo- Gotta be gone in my mind, but former NFL starters on the OL are not easily discarded an he will get another chance to change our minds though I doubt he will. 11. Esposito- On PS after doing stint in NFLE for Frankfurt where he blocked for league leading rusher. Played tackle as a starter in college so he is a definitely a project in my mind and I expect nothing out of him but JMac and the crew have him on the roster for some reason. 12. Pruce- Another PS player who apparently caught the Bills eye with his performance as a tackle for Frankfurt in NFLE another project who we have for some reason in JMac's mind but no one I expect to contribute. It was interesting for me to look at the PS roster because I thought Sobieski would be there but he isn't. i assume we signed an injury settlement with him and he is gone, but appreciate any update from folks if he got plucked by another team off our PS (I think this is unlikely since he would have to go onto their active roster) or how our relationship ended. In summary, we have people in place and work to do as there are couple of UFAs, but again I will not be shocked if the end result of things are that TD gets the right cost for Jennings and Price and we stand pretty pat because JMac believes he can make the whole we greater than the sum of the individual parts. I don't think he can, but I did not foresee the upgrade he led the way in creating this season. I thought he would be good (and clearly an upgrde over the not ready for primetime Vinky and Ruel) but not as good as he was. Oh well, the wife calls (off for Indian food for a late lunch) but this was the too-much about the OL I had to say anyway.

Cliff noted begin- Sorry for the lack of cliffnotes on this post but it really is me thinking out loud (or at least in print) about a TE situation I neither have good enough info to make a judgment or an insight into our overall plan and timing. Any additional thoughts or musings on the TE situation for those who wish to waste the time to work through this post is much appreciated and if you do not have the time please go out and enjoy the winter weather. Cliff notes end. I was very very impressed with how Clements and MM ran and developed our O this season. The bottomline is that they demonstrated success in producing a winning season though it fell short of where fans and they hoped it would be. In terms of analyzing the O performance in particular, there are many specifis to analyze like the deadhorse we are beating on TSW regarding QB play, and ultimately the context to me is that all teams play the schedule they are given, on any given Sunday (or Monday) any pro team can beat another pro team (as seen in the NE/Miami game) and that overall they led the way to putting points on the board using the whole team and the offensive play during the streak was an essential part of that point production as the ST and field position delivered by the D were aswell. That being said (mostly by me to stop us from getting too distracted into replaying the QB deadhorse) the particular point I am trying to think through is how MM (and thus Clements) view the TE situation and what they are going to and/or should do about this. Overall, I think MM views the TE position as one of importance and probably greater importance than many other HCs becausehe played the position in the NFL. Most teams strike me as not really knowing how to get good and consistent output from the TE because the position is such a tweener. The TE in a perfect world should be a solid receiver and also a solid blocker. Particularly as the 6' 7" ish bodies who can play both these roles are heading off to make even more money playing forward in the NBA. bulking up to become OL players or slimming down to become receivers their simply is a lack of Tony Gonzales type athletes which most teams seem to dea with by simply using the TE as an extra blocker and role player. The Bills actually have ample talent at the TE position- Campbell- a definite find by TD and a good deal as he merely has to give up a 7th for a player who upgraded the position for us, has done well enough as a blocker on running plays (particularly on seal block plays allowing WM to stiff-arm his way around the corner) and his pass pro has suffered more from the general OL problems and lack of Drew mobility than him getting routinely beat around the corner. Euhus- Bills actually made a significant expenditure on him using a 3rd on TE rather than addressing out needs on DL. He showed some good potential as a pass catcher and it does not seem outrageous that he will develop the tep Remeirsma has a feared receiving threat giving the QB not only a safety valve which occupies the thought of the OLB so he is less effective as a run stopper or blitzer, but has the ability to run medium patterns so a DB or SS must watch him rather than crowding the line and WM- Neufeld- Not a stunning player at all, but a solid back-up on a rainy day which came upon us with injuries to the first two. He is not the answer to the full-time starter question. I'm glad we have him due to the injuries but his level of play and the injuries is why TD is now talking TE as a need. Trafford- signed only due to the injuries and I'm glad to have this project when we are forced to dip into the4th string due to injuries, but make no mistake he is a 4th string level player who would only make the team normally as a back-up with ST chops and even that would be a tremendous accomplishment under normal circumstances. Peters- Boy, what a wildcard. He apparently has tremedous speed in such a big body and also has incredibly soft hands to boot. Like any youngster he needs a lot of work to bring his blocking on a par that is worthwhile and the fact he looks so good on the receiving side, but still ended up being just a project testifies to how much work his blocking needed. The fact he made the roster as a tackle is intriguing since perhaps this was mostly a way to give him work and to make clear to him that how he masters the blocking game will determine whether he is in this league or not. A wonderlic score of 9 and his failure to tell the refs he was in one game as TE with a tackle's # when injuries pressed him into service does not speak wonders for his brain power which is the rap on him. Stil the fact he has made the roster based on his receiving prospects when his brain power and assumably his blocking were so marginal speaks loads to his pass catching skills being special. The fact that he forced his way onto the inside punt rushing squad because no one could block him in practice and he translated this into a blocked punt and athletically gifted TD recovery simply makes this fan say Oh my! At any rate, despite having 5 possible players for 3 positions often seen as an afterthought, the big deal is the injuries to Campbell and Euhus. Both apparently are ACL tears which are survivable for athletes like never before thanks to modern surgery and rehab techniques. However, the reality is that given that great athletes like Edgerin James and Willis M needed over a year before even these great athletes looked like their former selves, it is not unreasonable to fear that at best it will be the beginning of the 2006 season before we can count upon either of these players playing at the level we want at TE. It is easy for me to see that MM/Clements/TD would place TE acquisition on their list of off-season 2005 things to do because if we plan to make the playoffs and actually have a reasonable chance at winning it all in 2005, Neufeld with a back-up of Trafford and a hope that one of our two injuries will redevelop quickly (we hope so, there is a reasonable chance of this, but you can't bank on it) is not sufficent to go into the season. I think the Bills have several options which include: 1. Get a placeholder TE in case Campbell or Euhus end up needing a full season to recover. Perhaps there is a cap casualty we can get who can hold the job for a year with back-up support and we le him go the next year. 2. Develop internally as Peters is the real deal and we merely need one of our injuries to not be so badly hurt and with the back-up of Neufeld/Trafford we will be OK. 3. Pick-up a new prospect to be our TE of the future and deal with cap impliacations we are unfortunately forced to have due to injuries. I think it is all a tough deal and in a perfect world I hope the docs give me reports on Campbell/Euhus which allow me to go forward without spending additonal cap resources on TE, but right now I don't see it (ANYONE HEAR ANY SCUTTLEBUTT ON THESE TWO INJURIES IT IS MUCH APPRECIATED TO KNOW MORE). Right now, I am quite intrigued about UFAs Freddie Jones (AZ), Bubba Franks (GB) and Anthony Becht (NYJ) who all have been highly regarded at some point in their careers and had some production as NFL players. If they get a great deal from their present teams or on the market more power to them as I do not think that any are worth the ranch and the dog to sign. However, if TD cn reenact the magic he performed getting Sam Adams to sign a reasonable deal and turn in play that achieved the Pro Bowl that is a good deal. The other wild possibility which I have played with on TSW is that what TD is really trying to do with Henry in saying we want a 2nd for him is actually to pry some great value out of Miami who seems to be the lead target for Henry but does not have a second this year. Perhaps he has some odd packaging in mind to replace our lost first. Perhaps he thinks he can get a 1st next year from the Fins since they can't do a 2nd this year. Perhaps there is some wild dream about getting Fins receiver TE McMichael in exchange for Henry. Some folks complain that McMichael cannot block (though others on TSW who have watched the Fins say he can. Looking at the stats, he has produced with is receiving at a level which I judge to be above Henry's production. Even if Mcmichael is incomplete as a TE, I do see it as a possibility that MM may think he has the TE knowledge to make McMichael a special player and a good enough blocker at TE with his understanding of the position. I don't know, but the TE possiblities for this team under MM intrigue me.

I definitely agree that TD is not as short-sighted as me. He is the GM who has to put bacon on the table through job performance and I'm just a fan who can hatch all sorts of plots and suggest outrageous risks. However, I think the things which I see that put TD more toward my future is now thinking than a George Halas throws nickels around like their manhole covers approach are: 1. The unlikely aspiration for the Bills when they came here was a three year plan to make the playoffs and compete for it all. He's moving into his fifth year and while the 3 year plan was an unlikely aspiration given the cap hell TD inherited when he got here, 4 years without even a playoff berth is a long time and for Ralph who signs the checks and is not getting younger the absence is even longer. TD must have a long-term view but he does need to produce on the field now and that is also real. Getting a draft choice who will almost certainly pay off not next season but the season after that compared to a player who might make us a playoff team now is a rough deal. 2. TD's handling of the draft as a Bill clearly devalues the #1 pick as some sort of Holy Grail the team must have. He simply has a history of using it as a tool which he has been quite willing to trade away even within the division to meet immediate needs (Bledsoe), be inventive in acquiring a new one from next to nothing (PP), use that newly acquired #1 for a speculative pick with no immediate payoff (WM), or trade the future #1 again because the market dictated getting a guy who needed training now who seemed a better choice than what would likely be available in 2005 (JP). TD seems to see that in what is generally thought to be a weak draft, that the cap hit that comes with a #1 choice this year may be a negative so acquiring a player for Henry is more than useful and getting value for him from the draft next year is not a straight-forward process since we lose out big on the time issue as it raises both cap management and contribution on the field in 2006 issues to have 2 #1s in 2006. Does that draft look that strong? What are our likely needs that year (Clements is an FA?) 3. Who else is involved is a factor. One of the wildcards I see for the Bills (which I may post on later as there are many uncertainties it would be good to get info on and different perspectives I have not reached conclusions about) is I do wonder how former TE MM views developing the TE position and its role. MM clearly values TE contribution as a former TE, but also seems to see his knowledge of the position allowing him to squeeze solid development out of prospects like Peters and also to get potential good players like Euhus to step up to greatness. I'm not sure whether he would view a McMichael as unnecaary because he feels he and Clements are good enough to get good production out of Euhus, Campbell, Peters, Trafford, Neufeld even if none are atthe Shannon Sharpe level, or alternately does he feel that the can take a very good producer like McMichael and make him great. At any rate, I think that TD is looking at the whole picture and making decisions that he feels will allow us to win now and win in the future. My sense is that after a heart-breaking loss to Pitts 3rd and 4th string, the future weighs even more heavily on him as a motivator.

Don't forget Don Beebe who left the Bills after participating in (and losing unfortunately) a bunch of SBs with the Bills (including Leon Lett making him a noted player) and finally won one as a member of the Packers I believe. I'n not sure if he was an FA or how he left. I think the ultimate test of whether you did well after you were a Bill is wether you were on an SB winning team and in particular whether you were a contributor to that team. I think the ultimate irony (testimonny?) to post Bills not having a huge impact is that there has been no one who comes to mind who played a role for a team similar to the massive role to the team and recognized achievement in the league that anyone played for an SB winner which is at a level that a Bryce Paup played here after we made an excellent FA investmemt in him to steal him from GB. With good assessment, good salesperson ship, and good deal making it is possible to get an FA from elsewhere who has the post FA achievements of a Paup, or makes the Pro Bowl like Spikes, or plays the pivotal role that the Rodney Harrison acquisition plays right now for the Pats. Another ex-Bill who made the SB was one of our reserve DL players who went to SD in the year they went to the SB, but I forget his name. I think he might have actually set a record for NFL SB appearances by even making another stop that resulted in reaching the SB with 4 here, 1 in SD and another, but hte memory grows foggy.

If the cost was right in terms of our cap I would sign him in a hot second. Breaking up is hard to do, so I guess most of the whining we see on TSW is from fans who feel like he rejected them when he wanted to go home to be a #1. However, I doubt he will be released (unless someone can demonstrate how an accelerated cap hit from cutting him wouldn't make the AT cap situation worse) and even if released, it would be an act of charity on his part to come here because the market will probably pay him more scratch than we want to pay at WR and I don't see that happening. However, I would sign him in a hot second if he wanted to come here at the right price because it would make our team dominant in many ways. I see the issues raised in this way: 1. The prime benefit to us is that suddenly we would look like the highflying Rams in terms of weapons we could put on the field. Opposing teams would have their hands full trying to figure out what their DB matc-ups are going to be to cover a player with the proven speed rep of Evans, with the proven athletic rep of Moulds and a player who caught 94 passes in his best year with the Bills and who was Moulds' equal in TD production for us. Opposinf forces had fits deciding whether to double Moulds or PP when they were both here and now they would have to factor in the likely need to at least put their fasted DB on Evans instead of Price or does he need to be doubled. Who cares what they choose because actually our bread and butter would be to run WM who now faces a dime defense and gets to stiff arm DBs instead of LBs. 2. Look at Price's stats as a Bill and you would see a player who increased his number of catches, yards per catch and TDs each year he was here. Not wanting him seems silly to me based on his past production as a Bill and seems more based on observers personality assessment rather than his on field play. 3. Usng his lack of production in AT as a standrard to predict his production IF he were to return to Buffalo seems flawed to me. He never produced like a #1 in AT well who cares he wouldn't be a #1 here. He never produced with a unique QB like Vick and again who cares because our QB is not going to be or play like Vick. 4. Complaints about his personality seem misguided to me. He got tagged as a Bill which no player likes, but he generally kept his mouth shut, cooperated with TDs efforts and helped us steal from AT. Bills from Moulds to Bledsoe spoke highly of him and urged TD to sign him. His main problem for us were some untimely fumbles, but they always came when he was striggling for an extra yard and from a second hit after the guy nipping at his ankle set him up, rather than him pulling a Deion Sanders and dropping like a fly whenever he got touched. I doubt PP will be available but I would sign him in a fash because most of all I love to watch WM run and that would happen a lot with PP here.

The notion doesn't strike me as impossible because the NFL if nothing else is a "me-too" league when it comes to success. I think the success of Corey Dillon has done alot for the prospects of Henry not because they are equivalent as players, but simply because it makes the story of a former Pro Bolw RB maing the difference for a team a much easier and believable story to tell. The other extraordinary thing I have seen recently is that apparently the Eagles are in very good shape cap wise (its hard to understand how after their imvestments in McNabb and Owens) and it appears they can afford to pay for an FA RB. Hoqwever, this cap room also makes them a likely target for FA RBs like Jordan and Alexander or moving up in the draft to select a well-regarded rookie RB by packaging thier #31 and moving up. Thic could be but does not strike me as a likely move at all.