Fake-Fat Sunny

I think Henry played and WM sat on the bench the first four games for several reasons: 1. Care was being taken with the ongoing rehab of WM from his devastating injury and even if he looked great in pre-season and in the back-up role the Bills would have been unlikely to throw WM right into the mix as a fulltime starter. 2. WM actually was not producing in practice and on the field in pre-season and in the first four games like he was producing at his all-star levels at the end of the season. If you look at WMs stats in the first four games, they were very promising and great for a guy who had suffered a major injury, but they simply were not great production at the Pro Bowl levels he showed at the end of the season. WM's yards per carry were not that great at the beginning of the season (he was at about 3.5 or so for the most part in the first four games). As he and we began to have confidence in his durability then he quickly worked up to 30+ carries a game like he logged against the Fins and as he wore them down his production per carry increased, but it would have been foolish to use WM as the workhorse he became for game 1 on. Complaints that we should he would have done more if he had been used more also do not accord with the stats as the games he got in during the fist four was often due to cramps or an injury to Henry so he fact was our primary rusher in these games and had fair to middlin production at best. 3. Henry did not perform at the Pro Bowl level we want and expect in the first four games, but he did have some productivity. He mainly can be faulted for not stumbling over nothing as he headed to some holes but generally speaking he was OK but unspctacular as a runner and not a total disaster excet on the play he stumbled over nothing and when the NFL admitted he should have been given a TD against Oakland and MM did not challenge the call. He actually finally lost the job when he was hurt and we were forced to go to WM and we won and WM never looked back (though he gracefully said TH was still the starter until it was obvious after 2 great WM performances who the man was). As best as I can tell form the stats and my memory, WM's development was not held back so much by refusing production to placate Henry, but by WM actually not producing a lot initially. To the extent WM might have produced more if he were used more, the stats do not indicate this as WM did get used a lot a couple of times when Henry was laid low and he did not produce at a level exceeding Henry's production in the game. What seemed to be the case was that word began to leak out from the Bills in the 5th game or so that WM was now showing an extra gear in practice and this coincided with Henry going down and the rest was history.

I think the fault in your argument is that it overstates the case in a number of ways: 1. First it is true that the Bills D did not answer the call against a quality O versus Pittsburgh and was badly beaten in many facets of the game by the Pitts reserves. However, it seems to go a bit far to claim this one real and fatal problem is based in some broad D failing when this same D beats the crap out of weak and moderate NFL teams (including a few playoff level squads like Seattle on the road, the Rams here and NYJ in the second game. The inmates may be running a good but not great squad, but our D is so far from being bad or an asylum it undercuts your argument. 2. The individual players you point too as being problematic are among the best in the league. Spikes certainly deserved the Pro Bowl nod and Adams did too. Fletcher did not get the nod but simply led the team in tackles. As these players show all signs of being productive on the field, your complaints get reduced to wailing about style points. Do these style points impact team output? Possibly, but there is a "let me play" we want athletes to have in terms of their attitude or they don;t seem to be productive as players. The item which differentiates the Pats and which the Bills under MM seem to be aspiring to is that the players are being asked and are being anxious to play O when they are defensive players like Seymour who has lined up as a blocker or play D when the are O specialists as seen with Troy Brown playing CB. One of the best things about the Bills this year is that MM seemed to respond to Adams wanting to play by inserting him in as a blocker in the red zone offense and their performance was upgraded. Likewise Bannan contributed in the redzone, and even Ryan Denny was used as a TE. MM is a rookie HC and it seems unreasonable to me to expect him to make a major change in the Bills ethic on a dime. However, the Pats-like answer to Adams demanding to play is not telh him to shut up as you suggest but actually to let him play and prove he can contribute on other units. MM is doing this with good results as best as I can tell. 3. The thinking fan does not go too far in taking the story laid out by the media as the gospel. The Pats are special in that they do seem to pick up for each other as players and not back bite each other as seemed to be the case for example in the RJ/DF dispute and the negative ranting of fans around the Bledsoe case. However, be it Phil Simms or the rest of the media they do seem to gloss over some real life fights and negativity in Patriot land. When BB bollixed the management of the Milloy situation last year, it was quite amazing to me to hear some of the falry public scorn heaped on the genius BB by the Pats players. This had a direct and pretty large impact on their play and they got steamrolled by the Bills in the first game last year. However, a couple of things happened: 1. BB publicly admitted he had been surprised and mishandled the situation. 2. The Pats suffered a series of grievous injuries to key players like Colvin and were forced to either pack it in or suck up for each other. It is a tribute to the character of the players they chose to suck it up and play for each other. I think a key to the Pats success has been not that they bend to every whim of the management, but that they always watch each others backs as tammates whether the foe is th media or Belichick. I'd take a deeper read of the situation if I had your views because they do not seem to spring from the full truth of the situation as best as I can tell.

I think we all agree on the point that the OL should be upgraded and most ous even agree that the OL play must be upgraded i we are to win. There would seem to be little debate on these points. The debate is how do we do this upgrading and what are we willing to sacrifice as a lower priority to do this upgrading. Some place so much emphasis on the QB as the key change to be made that they are willing to see the Bills not focus all their efforts and cap room on this effort because the first thing they want to do is cut Bledsoe. Right now the Bills have some flexibility in cap room but not an infinite amount. Cutting Bledsoe likely ends up reducing the Bills ability to buy a better OL because the cut results in $4.3 million in deadspace. This is balanced against the team having a $6.5 million allocation for Bledsoe if we keep him. However, any amount we pay above $2.1 million for a back-up to JP begins to cut into the $9 million or so we have in cap space to upgrade the OL. As even a QB of Garcia quality last year drew over a $5 million cap hit. My sense is that if we acquire a new QB ast he back-up to JP he definitely is going to cost more than a $2 mill cap hit. Otherwise he will be a second-tier player (or less) for $2.1 million who won't be able to step in as the Bills starter if JP isn't starter quality yet, or JP gets hurt again, or also won't have enough experience and has been to the SB before so he can help train the young JP. The bottomline is that if you want to devote our efforts to upgrade the OL talent you should also be rooting for Bledsoe to agree to play at a lower cap hit because if Bledsoe goes a lot of the the cap room we have will go toward a new back-up QB.

Folks here have too strong a memory of the critical role Frank Reich played for this team to disregard the import of having a credible back-up QB. In the modern world, one need only look at the 2002/03/04 results of Atlanta and NYJ where they made the playoffs behind Vick and Pennington, they miss the playoffs the next year when neither team had an effective plan B behind these starting QBs and the next year the two QBs are back and both teams make the playoffs. Your Uncle may be a nice guy, but the Bills need a credible back-up QB to be considered a contender in this league and particularly since Matthews it is said in the media is retiring and won't be around next year, the back-up QB question is a big one for us Bills worshippers. As far as OL, I think this all comes down to whether we resign JJ or not. Since he likely will command a contract arounf the $5 million annual freigh pedestrian talents like Clifton or Petitgout got at LT, if the Bills do this this hit combined with a $5.8 million MW 05 hit will make it unlikely that we are going to improve the OL with new talent but with JMac squeezing some additional production and development out of Tucker or Smith. The math simply makes things tough.

Thanks for the post and this list of possible options. It strikes me that the key to deciding which possibilities may be real is a guesstimate of what cap allocation the Bills will make at QB. As it stands, JP apparently will have a 2005 cap hit of $1.4 million (rounding up from $1.35+). Bledsoe leaving would leave deadspace of $4.3 million. The anti-Drew crew gleefully point out his cap hit leaving would be less than $6.5 million hit if he stays. However, you only realize a cap benefit from him leaving if your replacement back-up for him has a cap hit of $2.2 million or less. My guess is that every QB on your list comes with a cap hit higher than that and the good ones considerably higher. This math is a big part of my rational why we are far better off if Bledsoe accepts the reality that age has him on the backside of his career and that if he accepts a deal where he will get a fair shot to compete on the field to start, but if the Bills' brain trust judges JP to be the better starter then he simply deals with this with same team first attitude he showed backing up Brady in 2001. If Bledsoe walks, this is the thing to do because far better to have him gone than sitting there being pissed and holding himself back from being a cancer. However, if he decides he wants to retire a Bill, get a fair shot on the field, and train the young JP we will be all the better for it. The point about them being two different style QBs is a legit one, but actually both will need to subordinate their personal gun-slinging style for the Bills style which is clearly going to be one of run first, then run again and both QBs will need to earn their keep handing the ball off to WM.

The key here is whether the Bills resign Jonas Jennings and for how much. Given that MW will have a cap hit this year of $5.8 million, if Jennings gets even the $5 million annually that pedestrian LT talents like Clifton and Petitgout have gotten I don't see the Bills spending very much on sn LG with two tackles already locking up almost 1/8 of their team salary cap on two OL playera. A decision to resign Jennings or certainly to go after one of the stud FA LTs to replace him pretty much commits the Bills to make the LG slot better by getting more out of Tucker or Smith.

I think this is actually the correct way to consider this issue. In 2001 Bledsoe showed us a lot of what we need to know (I'd never say I have seen everything in any pro sport) at this point to answer the question of whether he would be a good back-up QB for JP: 1. From what Brady says and all I have heard, Bledsoe did an excellent job helping this second year QB understand a pro offense and be all that he could be (which turned out to be more than Bledsoe could be) 2. Bledsoe answered the call when Brady went down in a must-win game and despite the complaints of some TSW posters who seem to expect more from a back-up than the important "just win baby" Bledsoe played QB for the majority of this winning performance by the Pats and threw the game-winning TD. 3. Though many athletes tend to react negatively and publicly to losing their job to a better player, Bledsoe reacted as a teamer right down the line and never becaome a cancer. This is a different situation than the Brady deal because the situation was forced upon Bledsoe by the Jets Lewis rather than it being the GMs plan. However, kudos to TD for forcing Bledsoe to choose right now whether he can stomach being a back-up and demonstrate this financially or he can't and he should leave. I hope Bledsoe remains the team player he always has because the accelerated cap hit from Bledsoe leaving will hamstring this team in a big way when it is combined with the necessary cap hit of hiring another QB as a credible back-up. However, in the real worl, Bledsoe has shown me what I need to know to be very comfortable with him getting back-up money and forcing JP to prove he is ready to start on the field where this should be decided rather than simply handing him the job based on his college numbers.

A few years back amidst some blatant bad calls and play I also launched a conspiracy theory that the results and play of the game was fixed. The mother of my god-daughter responded with a take on the game I hadn't thought of that put to bed my thinking and carping that the games were fixed. She simply asked/ "If the games are fixed, why aren't they more interesting?" Given some fairly ludicrous match-ups and semi-long fit of bad and boring play in many games including yesterday's SB, I have to agree with her she is right. An idiot could write a far more interesting script than what we see in most big games.

The individual intros were a cool thing for the players, but i think they found it even cooler when they felt what it was like to win. The TEAM based approach was a key to that for NE and as long as the athletes are more deficated to winning the sport than they are to the glitz and glamour of individual entertainment they will do what they can to win. I see no problem with that and actually fully endorse that approach. Eventually, just to be different teams will do something different and if they are like the 85 Bears or the Raiders teams they will do this because some primping helps them win.

I think the key here is that the reason the Pats have done so well is that they are a TEAM. Brady is an important cog in the machine, but he is just a cog and be it Troy Brown stepping over from the O to fill the injury caused gap among their DBs, be it any of the players who have stepped up to help them deal with a plethora of injuries the past two years, or even if its the whole team stepping p after BB butchered the Milloy situation, they in the end watch each other's backs and someone steps up. I think opposing QBs and teams need to get this and not simply rely in one player, be it McNabb, Manning or whomever to beat NE and get them to the promised land. NE will get beat when a TEAM beats them and not by one person at QB.

I certainly agree that no team can win with Bledsoe at the helm though a big part of this was that since Dallas chose Aikman no team has won with a 1st round QB they selected playing QB for them. I think that TD has really taken a page from the Pats book in that he realized that Bledsoe certainly was essential to the Pats 2001 SB win because he did what a back-up should do to help the team win and bow with his cut or say bye-bye "offer" to Bledsoe he is on a track to try to repeat the Bledsoe/Brady situation with Bledsoe/JP. I think this is a great move because: 1. Bledsoe has already proven that he can be very helpful in developing a young QB to his full potential according to Brady's desription of working with Bledsoe. 2. Like it or not, Bledsoe did step in for Brady and play QB in the majority of a must-win game for NE and threw the winning TD pass. Bledsoe certainly demonstrated that he is not starter quality in that game, but he did exactly what a back-up should do in it which is just win and the style points many posters are concerned about be damned. 3. Many athletes become cancers for the team when they lose thie job to a better QB as Bledsoe did, but he kept his mouth shut and was a teamer for NE that year. It's an open question whether Bledsoe will even be willing to try to pull off the same results when he loses his job by GM choice rather than by an injury. However, by attaching this demand/ask to real money, Bledsoe will either have to commit to being willing to play the #2 role if he loses a fair competition to JP or if not then go to the open market. The Bills will have to deal with a dreadful cap hit if he goes, but if he stays and is committed to the TEAM first as shown by an agreement to restructure his deal then I think the Bills will be in great shape at QB.

Dilfer was the last 1st round QB pick to win it all, but the more relevant fact is that Troy Aikman was the last first rounder to deliver an SB to the team which picked him. Elway is a 1st rounder who won it twice but he actually was picked by Indy and Elway himself forced a trade because he threatened to bag football and pursue baseball where he was drafted by the Yanks unless he was traded and Denver was able to parlay the fact they fact they had a far better team than Indy (leading to their lower draft position) and traded non-essential players to Indy for Elway. Though he salary cap did not exist at this time as part of the law of the league, it did exist in reality as no team was going to spend beyond the budget they set for their team. Elway proved incapable of leading a team to win the SB unitl he made the decision to take less than the market would give him in exchange for Denver agreeing to use that money to hold on to Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe and other players which put the Denver team over the top under Elway's leadership. The most surprising thing to me this season was that the result last night yet again resulted in the drafting of a QB in the 1st round not to be the way to win an SB. '04 was actually an excellent year for results from 1st round QB selections as 8 or so of the 12 playoff teams were QB'ed by players taken in the first round. This result was an extraordinary departure from past years which look more like last year when only 3 of the 12 teams were QB'ed by 1st round selections of that team. However, in the end, the result was the same and if you are interested in winning (or in most seasons even making the SB as McNabb was the first QB 1st round selection to even get his team to the SB since McNair led TN there in 1999) then you should not draft a QB in the 1st round since this approach has not been a working choice for a team since 1989.

Well I'm simply amazed as the streak continues. I thought for sure with Manning and McNabb in the Championship games last year and even moreso this year with 3/4 of the QBs being candidates, that the streak would b broken. However, once again going way back to Dallas' selection of Troy Aikman in 1989 no team has been rewarded with a Super Bowl victory by a QB they drafted in the 1st round. Once again, Tom Brady, allowed NE a win led by a guy they found in the 6th round. Oh well, this was a far better year for 1st round QB picks by a team since McNabb finally at least delivered an SB berth to a team which picked that Q in the first and this was the first time this had happened since McNair led TN to a berth and near win in 1999. However, in the intervening half decade QB's acquired in a number of other ways such as UDFAs (Delhomme for example), late round draft picks (Brady for example), rejects from other teams including former first rounders (two-time reject Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer) and even boxboys from Wal-Mart (Kurt Warner) had led teams to the SB. Ironically when one considers the championship killing cap hits of great QBs like Manning and their failure to reach every player's ultimate goal, SBs seem to be routinely won in these salary cap driven days by players such as Warner, Dilfer and Brady who were paid at or about at the NFL minimum the year's they won their first SBs. I was really rooting for McNabb to finally end the drought because I figured that JP will have enough weight on his shoulders should the media ever tune into the fact that drafting a QB in the first round seems to be a virtual gurantee that this QB will never get your team an SB ring. I was willing to declare this the year of the 1st round QB pick because of their record in leading the teams which drafted them to the playoffs. Though they constituted 75% of the playoff teams this year, usually for the in the salary cap age only about 25% of the teams (it was 25% last year as only Manning, McNabb and McNair qualified) are actually led by 1st round choices picked by that team. We'll see next year whether this number was a simple abberration or some new trend. At any rate it is still the case that if you want to win an SB drafting a QB in the 1st round simply will not get it for you. Better luck next year!

It certainly would seem to be a possibility that makes a lot of sense. 1. AZ is apparently in need of a starting RB after the retirement of Smith. 2. AZ has given Shelton permission to seek a trade which means they are willing to take the accelerated cap hit for cutting him. 3. Shelton is obviously not a Pace/Jones/Thomas level talent at LT, but then neither is JJ so we are willing and able to have a good but not great talent at the spot. 4. I've never paid any attention to Shelton's play so I have no good he is, but certainly at some point he showed well which is why he got the big bucks from AZ. Though i assume his outpute has declined (AZ's willingness to let him go and take the penalty of an accelerated cap hit in doing it, JMac would need to make an assessment of whether he can revive Shelton's play if Shelton has problems. 5. AZ will take the accelerated cap hit for his bonus and Shelton's Bills cap hit would be a very doable $3 million which i think easily fits our OL cap budget. 6. Buffalo seems like a very doable location for Shelton as he is on record as saying all he wants to do is start and he will play anywhere. Further, our Shelton is his cousin so communication with him over contract and whatever motivation having a family member on the team provides is there for the Bills. AZ is a warm weather location (not FLA but a warm city is one of TH's wishes). AZ has ample cap room and can make a long-term deal with TH work if they want to. I think setting an alleged worth for TH based on a draft pick is a game not based in reality anyway. Shelton is not a top flight LT, but has experience and is a current player who fits a need for us. Unless there is something here we fans can't see, I say make the deal,

You certainly are correct about stupid gratuitous use of filler instead of people simply saying what they mean or just keeping silent if they have nothing to say. What really seems to be totally acceopted in this society even though it is just mindless filler is the common usage of people saying uhhuhh to connect sentences when they don't have any words to say. There ought to be a law against it. The FCC should fine folks for use of this mindless filler instead of their using the King's English. People may think your a fool then folks use this sound as a filler and they remove all dougt. Perhaps you want to join me in this crusade since it seems to fit your definitions so well.

I like the challenge that JP-Era put out there of fashioning an OL with a $13 million cap hit budger. Even though this may be off +/- $3 million from TDs actual budget for the OL, its a ballpark which brings some realism to the dream of having Orlando, Pace, Mike Wiilams, Kent Hull, Forrest Gregg and whatever. This may take a couple of days to find the time to work through but I'm game. In response to someone pointing out we are already spending $3.5 million at safety or $5 million on Bledsoe so spending an exorbitant amount on an LT isn't rediculous. True, but it is exactly because we have devoted so much of our cap to expenditures on safties and on Bledsoe and on MW that it is impossible for us to meet the cap and also spend even reasonably on LT. Yhe key question for those who care about the Bills and want to deal with reality is that by contract we are going to have a cap hit of $5.8 million for MW. How much of a cap hit do you expect us to be able to spend on an LT given this fact. Jones, Pace, and Thomas are certainly better players than MW but the OL franchise tag last year was over $7 million a year (a sum which Pace and Jones got having been tagged) and I don't see them getting less money this year than last and us devoting so much of our cap room to two players on the OL.

I think this thread is on the right track because it has led to advocating that Bledsoe restructure to lower his cap hit and essentially take a deal which will guarantee that he retires as a Bill, but has a second team QB cap hit and salary. I think TD is doing the right thing by giving Bledsoe a stark choice between saying bye-bye (though the cap hit we will endure from him leaving us will likely cripple our chances to win in '05 unless JP suddenly blossoms and also stays healthy) or agreeing to a contract which will lower his cap hit (by extending the deal so he retires as a Bill) but in exchange give him a real chance to win the starting QB job on the field. I think that the likely and best course for the Bills is for Bledsoe to accept a lower cap hit, to compete with JP on the field, and to have JP win the starter's job and Bledsoe does the same job he was forced into by injury of helping the young Brady to develop, stepping in when he was hurt and successfully playing QB in the majority of a must-win game and then gracefully stepping back when Brady came back to win the SB. The alternative is to cut Bledsoe because he can't deal with the realities of time and the Bills take an accelerated cap hit when we cut him before his March payment. Even though Bledsoe's '05 cap hit for the Bills will be lower for taking the accelerated bonus than his current contract, when one adds in the cost of buying another QB to be #2 to JP, the combined cap hit of the new QB and Bledsoe's deadspace may well prove fatal to our chances to build a winning team. Bledsoe is almost certainly not good enough to be the starter for a winning '05 Bills team (if the ST or the D had performed against Pittsburgh the way they performed during the winning streak they actually would have delivered a playoff start to Bledsoe) but I think if he will accept it he would be a great back-up QB for the Bills because: 1. He has a clear track record of helping young QBs become productive based on the way Tom Brady sings his praises. 2. He has been to the SB before when he led the Pats there under Parcells and even as a winner when he was part of the NE tea, led by Brady. 3. He has seen a lot of football and recognizes a lot though he has not shown a consistent ability to translate this knowledge into winning play by him because he falls back into his old bad pattting habits. 4. He has played QB successfully in the majority of a must-win game during the Pats SB run. he was not successful in racking up the glistening stats some posters seem to want, but the team won the game with him at QB which is all I ever wanted from Frank Reich and all I will ever want from my #2. It would be wonderful if the #2 played like Favre or Elway, but #2s do not play like Favre or Elway or they are not #2s. Bledsoe's play against Pitts is some proof that he was not capable of being NE's starter, but it was a great game for him as NE' back-up cause he just won baby. I will easily trade Bledsoe a fair shot at beating JP on the field in a dual for the starter's job in exchange for him being the same team player he was for NE if he loses that battle to a developing JP. My guess is that JP wins that battle because he actually will have a lower standard of success than Bledsoe. JP will "merely" have to meet the difficult test of showing that he is ready by giving us a fair but not perfect chance of winning next year while he develops. In would argue that the braintrust should only declare Bledsoe the winner of an on-field battle for starter IF he demonstrates that he will continue the same rate of progress in his production in '05 that he demonstrated when he was more productive in '04 than he was in '03. He wan an inadequate QB in '04 but in my judgment he was a far more productive player in '04 than his horrendous play in '03. He not only maintained the good elements of his '02-03 play: 1. He can throw the ball accurately downfield as seen by his bombs to Evans.Moulds and Price.Moulds. 2. His arm strength really allows him to be a more effective foul weather QB than many of his opponents. hey both struggle but Bledsoe is still a threat to pass in fould weather while many opponents prove to be even worse. 3. He's a big boy who can take a lot of hits and abuse without season-ending injury (unfortunately this was mostly from big sacks in 02-03) and a smaller man would have seen the IR if they were sacked as much as he was. He also demonstrated that while its hard to teach and old dog new tricks, you can get him to run old tricks he already knew and Kevin Killdrive abandoned including: 1. He simply ran some great fakes and successfully ran flea-flickers like the fake sneak and McGahee scamper after a Bledsoe fake and pitch and several plays where WM pitched it back to him and he threw downfield strikes to Evans/Moulds 2. He and the Bills successfully used Bledsoe running the QB draw a few times which along with a scheme which successfull sent WM outside forced the defense to wait and see what we were doing rather than simply commit to the all out blitz because they knew Bledsoe could not be effective against it and Killdrive was going to throw on even 3rd and short. I think Bledsoe will lose a fair battle with Losman because I was impressed with Losman's development last year despite the injury and only doing mop-up appearances and because I think that Bledsoe is not capable of carrying this team if the ST and the D simply barf as they did against Pittsburgh. However, I admit i was wrong in not expecting any improvement in Bledsoe's play in '04 when I advocated cutting him, and I could well be wrong now in judging that JP will beat him out because Bledsoe improved last year but has maxed out. We'll see.

Thanks and I stand corrected by your recounting of the post SB Ditka Bears. I grew up in Chicago and as a big tome Bears fan. The 85 team and winning the SB were big points in the sports life of this fan who came of age rooting for the Cubs, Bears and Bulls in the pre-Jordan era. As ,y wife, a lifelong Buiffalo gal tacked back and forth toward our eventual marriage in 1989 I was actually in transition from being a Bears rooter to being a Bills rooter in the late 80s (yes, I'm a Bills fan for love) and thus eradicated the post SB Bear record from my memory banks. Those were some great days though rooting for Ditka, Ryan and the Bears. I not only had the Super Bowl Shuffle on my answeing machine but was living with two good lookin' babes (it was all platonic as I was headed toward marrying my lovely wife) at the time. I remember and mention it because of a laughable response to the SB Shuffle from the Mom of one of the babes who was quite confused to hear a rap song on her daughter's answering machine. Its tough to get better than being single, having beautiful women underfoot and rooting for an SB winner all in the same year!

Cliff notes begin: If you want a new LG then root against the Bills resigning Jennings. Cliff notes end The cruel math is this. According to the best resource on the Bills salary cap I know of Clumping Platelets has the MW 2005 cap hit at $5.8 million, a number which easily puts MW in the top 10 OL salaries. The total cap he estimates to be $84 million dollars. Merely working on the assumption that to attract Pace, Jones, Thomas or one of the other likely LT FAs they will end up with a contract that makes them the highest paid Bills OL player. Does any of you who advocate picking up one of the best FAs out there using Moulds/Bledsoe or whatever inapired additional cap room hink we are going to devote about 1/8 of our total cap room ($12 million out of $84 million) to 2 players both on the OL. I and everyone outside of OBD don't know for sure what our 05 budget is, but I don't see this happening. In fact, I have my doubts that Jennings will find much of a market for his services that he will get a contract equal to his talent relative to the talent of other LTs like Clifton or Petitguot who have received contracts which average $5 million a year (their cap hits vary as the bonuses are prorated and base salaries are backloaded). My guess (and this is merely a guess) that TD offered Jennings more more money than he has ever seen before, but JJ correctly turned down this deal to see what the market offered him because TD offered him far less money than worse players at LT have received ($3 million annually?). However, when the smoke clears, there may not be a market for JJ at historice LT levels because: 1. About 8 of the top 10 OL salaries are for LTs and these teams are not in the market.. 2. Many teams are already locked into commitments at LT having given extraordinary offers to pedestrian players like Clifton and Petitgout 3. Many teams with LT need are like AT and simly do not have the cap room to offer a big contract to JJ after signing Vick to a $100 million contract and commiting a big wad to failed FAs like Peerless (in fact if I am AT and manufacture cap room by painful cuts, I use it to help Vick win the SB by buying defensive talent rather than a better LT). 4. For those teams which have BOTH and LT need and a lot of cap room JJ is at best likely the 3rd or 4th best available choice at LT which would lower what the Bills need to pay to keep him. It is the market and JJ may be gone. He only needs one offer and some team either foolishly or cagily might make him offer he can't refuse. My guess is that TD lowballed him at about $3 million which may work, but he may get a better offer from the 49ers who having gone through cap hell will have some $ and do have some LT need. The other likely candidates are Seattle, or the Rams, or Philly if they lose Jones, Pace, or Thomas to FA. Each of these teams has some cap room and JJ may soothe their pain for having lost their stud LT. My guess (and this is really a wild-eyed guess as all of these posts are) is that TD may make an offer of approaching $5 million annually to JJ. If so, I would guess that the combined cap allocation of over $10 million to the two tackles would make it most likely that the Bills will depend on JMac to upgrade the OL through training current players to produce more (particularly Tucker or Smith at LG) and outside of a project draft pick on the second day of the draft or a UDFA that JMac can get the same if not greater development out of than he got from Smith in '04 that is all we're going to see in our efforts to upgrade the OL. The irony here is that if you are rooting for the Bills to get new talent at LG or C, then you better also root for the Bills NOT to see resign JJ because it is difficult with the math for both to happen. The other irony is that the decision to cast our lot with the more mobile JP may actually be a sign that we are not going to acquire better players to upgrade the OL and therefore, we must have a QB who can run for his life if the OL upgrade of current talent does not come to fruition. My guess is that we committ heavily to OL payment by resigning JJ at about $4 million annually and we depend on JMac to squeze upgraded production out of what we got.

Do you think Parcell's deserves any credit for: 1. the Boys turning around their record and making the playoffs in their first year under Parcells? 2. the Jets turn around of their record and move from horrendous to better but still inadequate under Parcells. 3. Being smart enough to hire Belichick to run to co-ordinate for him. I think that certainly Parcells does a far better job with Belichick than without him, but Ditka simply has no record of success and a record of horrendous failure post the '85 Bears while Parcells did not win the SB with another team, but clearly did suceed in improving though not perfecting teams. Also, falsely implict in your post is some sort of equivalence between between Belichick and Ryan which is simply not there. To that extent Parcells also has to be recognized for identifying, hiring and working well with Belicheck while Ditka did not work well with Ryan at all. The analogy simply falls apart and that is even before you get the factual occurences that Belicheck deserves all the credit in the world for outstanding achievement with the Pats, but there are real worl limitations in his record which include: 1. A failed HC gig with Cleveland which far outpaces the single failure suffered in Parcell's career of this past year in Dallas. 2. His on-agin/off-again foray with the NYJ HC job which is an indicator of indecisiveness and potentially some character flaws in BB to go along with his coaching genius. 3. A testimony to BB's impressive work that geniuses are often those able to take advantage of the good luck that life delivers them. However, BB is clearly a genius who has been blessed with good luck. Part of this luck is testimony to his good skill in that he picked Brady in the 6th round over Tim Rattay when some Pats were advocating taking Rattay. However, some of his fortune has come from simple dumb luck as he showed every sign of being willing to go down the drain with Bledsoe as his QB in 2001 and he owes a great debt to Mo Lewis and the collapsed lung or his first SB win likely would not have occured. Also BB completelu misread and mismanaged the Milloy situation leading to an embarassing blow-out at the hand of the Bills, yet the confluence of a gut check provided for the team by a bad skein of injuries last year and him being good enough to build a TEAM-first ethic among the Pats (an ethic which interestingly Bledsoe was a key to upholding in 2001) which saw the Pats deal with the injuries and BB's mismanagement by sucking it up leading to and SB win last year. Your post gives Parcells too little credit to be realistic and it also seems to recognize that BB is certainly a genius but in the end he is a very lucky genius and if it were not for dumb luck he may well be unemployed today (again).

I hope TD's efforts work out and Bledsoe agrees to take back-up money in exchange for M and the braintrust really givng and JP a fair competition on the field for the starters job. If JP proves worthy on the field of being the starter, i would take Drew producing and acting exactly as he did in 2001 when he lost the starter's job to a better QB (Brady) in a hot second. I care little about his statistical numbers in this case because in 2001 Bledsoe did a great job in my book by: 1. According to Brady and all reports I have heard he worked hard and well with Brady while recovering from his collapsed lung to help the young QB learn and run the offense. This is a totally different situation since in '01 Bledsoe was made a mentor by injury and now it would be by design. However, i hope he proves to be as much of a teamer for us as he was for the Pats. 2, He did answer the bell and play QB successfully in the majority of a must-win game in the AFC championship when Brady went down to injury. The complaints of many posters (some of whose football opinions such as Simon I have really grown to respect over the years) really strike me as little more than swill. Regardless of folks complaints about what his QB rating from this games stats would have been, regardless of the "almost" fictitious INTs they whine that he almost threw in that game, regardless of their style-point complaints about his play in that he game he threw the game winning TD and played QB in the majority of a must win game. 3. Unlike most NFL athletes who are overpaid spoiled brats in my opinion he simply shut his mouth when BB correctly name Brady the starter in the SB game and proved himself to be a team player by his actions. Quite frankly I don't think any player that played an essential role in an SB run 4 years ago needs to offer any apology whatsoever for his play over the last 5 years. Add to that I think he deserved his Pro Bowl selection with his on-field play for the Bills in 2002 (if you disagree then please name the QB you think deserved ti=o go to Hawaii instead of Bledsoe) and the Comeback Player of the year accolades he earned that year. Drew certainly sucked as a QB for the Bills in the 2003 season and if i were TD I would not have resigned him and extended his contract last year (and said so repetivitely on TSW) but as bad as Bledsoe played the only thing which is worse is the convenient memories of those who claim that his production in the last 5 years was a total disaster. He sucked completely in 2003 and merely "improved" to being inadequate in 2004 as the winning streak results does not eradicate at all the bummer of missing the playoffs. However, its the rare QB who plays an essential role in an SB winning season and he should be proud of the work he did which was pivotal to improving the Bills from 3-13 to 8-8 in 2002 (even if BB laid out a textbook on how to beat him and Kevin Killdrive stupidly refused to change how he played as Clements did this past year and by the end of the season almost everybody knew how to stop him. Admitting the reality that Bledsoe does some things well is different than claiming he does everything well. He has some very exploitable weaknesses but also some strengths when used properly can provide some value to a team,

Thanks for your ideas. I'd| 1. Do pretty much what TD is doing and tell Bledsoe I plan to cut him if he doesn't renegotiate to a cheaper deal. My hope of the two choices is that Bledsoe will in fact negotiate to a cheaper deal and convinces me that he is a teamer rather than a child and is confident enough in himself to compete with JP on the field and believe that MM and crew will choose the best man for the job based on their on-field performance. By far the best outcome for the Bills strikes me as him negotiating out to a smaller cap hit him being correct in trusting in MM in deciding their on-field performace fairly. I see this as the best outcome because we can deal with the accelerated cap hit of cutting him but it will really be tough on the is team to do so as the combined cap cost of the accelerated cap hit AND the cost of signing the most credible @2 we can will likely exceed the cap cost of keeping him with his agreed to contract. Bledsoe played the role of the #2 perfectly for Brady when this situation was forced upon them and it would be a wonderful thing if he played this same #2 role for a JP who proved on the field he was ready for the starter's job. If JP isn't ready to start and needs to be benched, i doubt the Bills will make it to the SB (or simply make the playoffs with Bledsoe as the starter, but there is a chance that we could make the playoffs with Bledsoe if he repeats the same level of improvement in his production from the '04 season to the '05 season that he showed with his improvement from horrid in '03 to more productive though still inadequate in '04. 2. Matthews did well in his brief appearance in '04 but my understanding is that it has been printed in the media without any correction by Matthews that he plans to return to the couch the Bills rescued him from and retire from pro football adter last seaaon. Barring hearing something otherwise from Matthews I think he is done and should not be counted upon. 3. I agree that we should definitely take Moulds up on his offer and redo his deal so he retires a Bill and we reduce his immediate cap hit. 4. I like Prioleau as a player and feel he has been a difference maker for the Bills on a number of plays during his career. However, his contributions do not equal his cap hit and I would simply cut him. 5. I'd trade TH for sure, but not for the fantasy league speculation of some draft choice but for a player (even a lesser one than TH straight-up if that player feels a need for us this year. I'd even be willing to throw in a draft choice with TH for a player like TE McMichael of the Fins. I actually think TD is headed exactly in this direction saying that he wants a 2nd for TH and throwing gas on the media flames of Miami interest when he knows they do not have a second to trade for him. 6, I'm pretty willing to let JJ go also because I think if we resign him it will probably cost us a $5 million or so cap hit and when you combine that with almost $6 million cap hit MW is scheduled to get this year the two of them alone will take up about 1/8 of Bills total cap and I do not see us devoting cap space beyond current contract levels to any new player on the OL. I'm intrigued by a concept I sae on TSW today of trading TH to AZ for Cards former LT Shelton, his $3 million annual salary and cap hit would be quite manageable for us and give us value for Henry in '05 rather than some speculative draft choice who even if he works out it not likely to provide us with any return until '06 or later. 7. I also try to resign PW but only for a relatively small raise and I wouldn't be surprised if we lose him.

I actually found Nanker's summary regarding the no playoff appearances with the Bills true but the bookend years about the impacts of his loss of blood and loss of esteem from the back and forth with off-season with TD theoretical rather than powerful as you found it. From what I see, the next chapter is yet to be written but will happen before his March ballon payment. Either he refuses to take less money and the Bills will have to deal with problem of the silly extension for Bledsoe limiting our cap space because his the Bledsoe deadspace combined with cost of a back-up for JP and potential #1 if JP fails is going to be a management trial. On the other hand, he agrees to take a paycut, actually increases our cap space and allows us to buy additional help and since this commitment on his part involves giving up real money I think he shows he is committed to the Bills and I am more than comfortable letting him lose the battle with JP and play the role of the back-up or win the battle with JP and try to build on the improvement of his production from the sorry 2003 season to his inadequate work in 2004.

Mathews has apparently said he plans to retire after this season. If you have even announced you are contemplating immediate retirement or allowed that talk to publicly continue a player is probably done. Given that the Bills rescued hin from the couch, I'd actualy need to hear some affirmative statement from him that he wants to stick around before I even count him into the 2005 mix.

I think the Bledsoe issue is not the biggest one in terms of making this team a winner. Looking back at last season I see the issues as looking like this: 1. Installing the MM method of playing football and running the team- I think the failure to all be on the same page was the main reason behind the 0-4 start, but that he and the braintrust stuck to their systems and got everyone on the same page with winning results, They did a number of things right that enforced their will to win on the team (jettisoning Shaw because through no real fault of his own he was not a contributor on the field and it reminded all players they had contribute), solving the redzone issues by playing defenders in offensive positions, setting a positive tone and commitment to change leading to a road win in Seattle). I think there is still a lot of work to be done here and I think MM and the braintrust did not do the job in the Pittsburgh game playing not to lose instead of going for the jugular and seemingly hoping Pittsburgh without RoboQB and being locked into homefield advantage throughout the playoffs would simply mail it in for the game. MM obviously learned alot and learned it quickly as he made the team fit his image and I hope that they will work to never let a performance like the Pittsburgh debacle where the O, the D and the ST all screwed up will not happen again, 2. I think settling things on the OL is probably the biggest issue on the offense. The issue of what to do about JJ is the big uncertainty and I think it will go either way depending upon whether he gets at least one offer which is higher than the Bills can or should pay for him. From what I see now, I don't think that a crazy offer will be forthcoming because there is no reason to pay him a top 10 OL cap hit as most teams are either already committed at LT by the past huge LT contracts, by the general lack of big cap money and there probably be at least 3 more desirable LTs on the market. I think the Bills may well offer JJ more than he can get anywhere else on the market and that in fact if they do sign him they will be unlikely to pay big bucks for another OL player (such as the LG people want) because JJ and MW between the two of them will command about 1/8 of the team's entire cap room for these two positions both on the OL. They will recognize that the play of the OL must be upgraded in 05 but resigning JJ will committ them to depending upon JMac rather than new talent to do this. 3. I'm torn between the next three items in importance, but because of the importance of the QB from a business perspective I think you have to rank the Bledsoe question at #3. However, rather than canning him, i think the best outcome for the Bills is the unlikely one that Bledsoe will take a paycut to second team level pay. If he does, I think this is all to the Bills advantage because of the dumb extension TD gave to Bledsoe, the cap hit of cutting him before June 1st (which must be done to escape the bonus payment to him in March) really will harm this team. Folks focus on the Bledsoe cap hit being lower if you cut him than if you keep him, but if you cut him we will have to sign a back-up to JP who may well have to start if JP proves not to be ready to win yet. The deadspace of Bledsoe and the cost of a credible back-up will be larger than the Bledsoe cap hit most likely. If he takes a lower salary and thus acknowledges that he may lose the starting job to Losman and plays the same teamer positive role he played for NE in 2001 when a better QB took his job we will be in not bad shape at QB at all. 4. Fourth on the list I put the PW uncertainty. Anderson did not play much this past season and can't be counted upon. Edwards showed nicely as a reserve, but i still don't think he is enough of a player to be the starter. Adams apparently at least in part came here because he looked forward to playing with his bud Pat and with Phat Pat gone the middle of our DL becomes a question. The only one on a D with all the other starters returning but run stopping is so central to our D and the game these days the loss of PW may well be a big one. 5. With his miss of a chip shot in the Pitts game, Lindell has made PK the one big ST question. As much love as there is for Nugent and as big of a question as this critical miss and the obvious lack of confidence in Lindell beyond the 40 is, i think that his cap hit of rougly $600K in deadspace if he is cut, his outstanding performance on kickoffs with the kick coverage game and a nice job on a critical onside kick make it hard for me to see the braintrust doing him in. I'm not worried about the Clements issue as his contract is not done til next year. Doing it early is a good move for the DM, but first things first is deal with this year's team.