Fake-Fat Sunny

Forgive me if this has already been posted about since it went up late this afternoon and I just missed the thread, but over on the Bills Official website fans submitted questions 10 of which were picked at random (allegedly) for TD to answer. While there is plenty of pablum there, his answers contained some stuff I hadn't heard him sa before (whether we suspected it or not). Pieces that caught my eye were: 1. He continues to work to pump up the offers for Henry but made some new noises which go beyond the we would love to have him back by actually saying that given the offers received to date they expect to have him back unless they get better offers (which based on the scuttlebutt do not seem to be forthcoming unless someone panics in the draft). 2. He pretty specifically blames Phat Pat's agent for over-estomatomg PW's worth and not getting a deal done since the Bill's wanted him and PW wanted to come back. I wonder who PW's agent is and whether he represents other Bills because negotiations between the two parties are going to be less than even pretend pleasant. 3. TD went into some detail defending Lindell's improved performance as a kicker in 2004 over 2003 and said flat-out he expects this improvement to continue under Bobby April in 2005. Any fans of Nigent out there maybe better change your shirts and stickers to Ted Nugent. 4. For Flutie fans he said after praising Dougie that Flutie is not the mentor type and that Holcomb and Wyche are folks to guide JP. 5. He answered a couple of questions about the OL by citing yardage gained and sacks reduced numbers to say we were pleased with the work done by the guys on the roster. He said they were not gonna do a double digit signing bonus and that Jj had passed on a significant offer they made him and that they were excited about some prospects in the draft on the OL. 6. He says the docs say both Euhus and Campbell should be at full speed by pre-season. Certainly some of this is market spin but I found it interesting

It is amusing to here folks describe WNY as poor. Folks who have taken the time and effort to see other countres and actually chose to go beyond the resorts have probably seen poor and believe me it is not remotely like anything in WNY and places beyond pockets of most of America. WNY is in fact economically well behind the sunbelt and the boom areas of the American economy. This is significant and important. However, the growing occurence of obesity in our society, particularly amomg some of the lower income parts ofthe US population is an indicator that though many in the US are less wealthy than the folks who are presented as the norm on TV and by definition 50% of Americans are in the lower half of income levels, the concepts of poor and American are total opposites on any kind of real scale. Any society that spend orders of magnitudes more dollars on cosmetics rather than on public health protection has allowed a decision to be made that it is poor in its decision-making even if it isn\t poor economically.

Can you say we need cap room to sign someone?

I also would hate for the Bills to leave my home county of Erie here in NY. However, if they were to leave, there would be an opportunity to try to get people to confront the question that if the Bills do not bind us together as a community then what does? It would be hard to get an intelligent and thoughtful conversation on this issue with all the hand-wringing, blamecasting and backbiting that undoubtedly would occur. However, eventually reality would have tio set in and folks would have to confront the loss of a major form of entertainment even though the Bills really are by any dollars and cents measure a minor part of the local economy. In many ways pro football is more the equivalent of Marie Antoinette saying "Let then eat cake" rather than being a real economic engine for the region or the beginning point of a lot of productivity that betters the lives of most. If the Bills left it would be a darn shae that I hope does not happen. However, if they lleft it would create an opportunity to build somrthing better on this wreckage. it is certainly what I hope happens in the face of the current governmental meltdown.

To take this back to an issue that is relevant to the Bills, I find it stupid that any team sees fit to anoint any player the starter unless there is such a stark difference in the quality and level of play that there is no question whatsoever who is the starter (for example Kelly/Reich). It strikes me as so clear cut that Bledsoe has had enough problems and that Losman has shown litle or nothing but potential that neither of these men should be handed the starting regardless of their performance and that of their #2. If Henson is great in pre-season and Bledsoe sucks then I hope Parcells/Jones have no trouble starting Henson. If Losman sucks and Holcomb is great, I hope MM has no trouble starting Holcomb. I agree with Marv that generally when you have two starting QBs you have no starting QB, but this is very different from anoiniting a player starter regardless of how poorly he plays or how well the #2 plays. Any player who needs to be deemed the starter regardless of the fact he plays crappy should not be your starter probably anyway. If both JP and Holcomb play horribly then you probably go with JP, and take your lumps to develop the younger guy, but i hope the Bills have no problem benching JP if he can't win and Holcomb can. Just win baby. I'm rooting for the 2005 Bills not the 2006 or 2007 Bills.

My apologis for not cliffnoting this too long screed, but a is my habit, i started this this morning and came back to it and added on to it throughout the day. hence it probably jumps a little bit but i had fun thinking this through and refreshing my brain with football stuff inserted into work stuff. I think you are mostly (rather than absolutely) incorrect. Obviously building a winning team is a mix. The draft is a key part but far from the MOST important part because there are so many factors and so much variability that it simply is never ALWAYS one way of doing this. Even in cases where the draft may be judged to be the leading factor, I think that in these cases at best it would be MOST (though in the modern NFL of moving players it is never even the leading factor compared to other keys to building a winner) it is a plurality of responsibility (1st but less than 50%) rather than the majority of the leading reason (over 50% of the responsibility). I think you are correct in pointing to getting value from the lower part of the draft as the most important part of the draft for building a winner. However, I think this point bolsters my argument that the best thing TD has done for the Bills in the draft was: 1. to trade away the 1st round picks for immediate help (getting Losman in 2004 for a 2005 pick was a great move because it allowed us to get a one year training jump on using the 2005 pick for our QB of the future, allowed us to use the 2005 pick on a QB of the future when the 2005 QB class is judged to be poor and allowed us to get our QB of the future as our 2nd pick in the draft eliminating the usual premium that 1st round QB choices get), to trade down and get the help we need from lower picks. In addition, even if you hate Bledsoe, its tough to argue against the fact that we needed a QB after RJ/AVP showed thy weren't the answer, that at least for 2002 Bledsoe merited his reserve Pro Bowl nod with is play on the field (if you disagree fine but if not then who do you say deserved it more that year), and off the field the acquisition of Bledsoe was sold and marketed (even if you think it was falsely) to Bills fans as a rebirth after a 3-13 season and the trade represented TD doing his job for Ralph as GM and helping the product ant the bottomline. 2. to trade down and to make picks for need players in the first round lower down. In addition to the great fiscal and now on the field move of picking WM, he also deserves a tip of the hat for reading the draft correctly and getting Kelsay who was promoted by some as a player deserving a 1st round pick with a second round choice and thus lower slotted salary. Your citing of NE is interesting because I think they are example number 1 of the importance of how you mix as the MOST important thing rather than identifying one method of team improvement as the MOST important thing. One only has to llok at the fact of how their run began with their 2001 season win and recognize that they picked up almost a third of this team after June 1st as cap casualties like A. Smith to see the importance of FA as their team building method. True the draft was a key part of the mix, but I think it stretches things to claim this was the MOST important part of their 2001 championship win as most of their draftees like Seymour and Wilfork are good players but easily replaceable cogs in the machine (see Seymour and his injury this year as an example). Amusingly the best case to make for a great draft move by NE was picking Tom Brady in the 6th. He does seak to the importance of the draft as one of the tools, but you have to ignore a lot to recognize that dumb luck and the Jets Lewis who collapsed Bledsoe's lung were the keys to their success with getting Brday into the line-up in time for him even to pull off his heroics. The NE example also brings you smack in the face of high $ FA purchases like Rodney Harrison being a key to the winning ways of this team easily as much as the draft. One need look no further than Roosevelt Colvin to see that FA also is no panacea. The MOST important part is not one single part but how skill and dumb luck allow you to get the right mix. As far as your indictment of Teflon Tom, i just don't think that an examination of all the facts allows this indictment to hold much water. Offhand (and in need of many suggestions and improvement because there will be items I will leave off) I'd judge TD's work as GM as: A. 1st day of the draft- Better than most because he uses this as a tool so he his willing to manipulate it to turn future speculaive resouces into upfront more tangible gains. His upper round picks are thus: 2001 Clements- great pick as he got the guy he wanted and we needed with a lower pick. Schobel- good pick, Henry- good pick who made the Pro Bowl as a reserve, Edwards- failed pick so far but this year is his make or break but we did a get a year as our best DT starter out of him, Jennings- good pick. 2002- MW- not worthy of the salary his lofty position brought him but this year is make-or-break for this pick with him starting, Henry's production behind him, and his revival just prior to and during the streak providing any hope here. He is argument #1 why you should trade 1st round picks away rather than make them, Reed, good production his first year had led to extreme disappoinment with his play his next two years. best thing you can say about him is that his prescence and first year play made us comfortable enough to let PP go and get WM for the pick, I am as doubtful about him as I am hopeful about WM, Denney- good pick by TD stealing him off the phone from Pitts as we needed a DE bad but OL worse (MW) and getting a talked about 1st rounder who produced well enough as a rookie allowing us to let PP go for WM, he started bad as he was left inactive, but proved to be the best DE we had deserving his start in 2003 on a team with a top 5 statistical D and though passed by Kelsay allowed us to go with just three DEs last year on top 2 statistical D because of his flexibility, Wire- a failed choice so far also in a make or break year. His failure probably has less to do with his talent (good hitter with good speed and a bright boy) and blatant mismanagement of his development as miscaculation of how much Jenkins had left had him thrown in at safety to start which he had never played at any level of organized ball. TD bears the blame for this because he hired GW, but drafting Wire does not strike me as the mistake TD made with Wire. 2003- WM- great choice. Kelsay- great choice particularly passing on him for WM speculation and picking him up in the 2nd, folks would have been disappointed but accepting of him if TD had picked him instead of WM, Crowell- an example that even after two seasons it is too early to draw final conclusions, has been a good ST player on a top-ranked unit but not a starter at LB (we haven't needed one though Posey provides an opening) if one insists that a first day pick should start. 2004- way too early to judge though kudos to TD for getting our QB of the future with the 2005 pick a year early. This use of the pick defines getting something (a year of needed training) for nothing. Overall- I think you have to judge TD's first day performance with 1st day draft picks as above the norm (proving me wrong is simple though time consuming to produce actual facts that show my sense of this to be wrong- what 11 teams did better with their 1st day picks during TDs time here?). If you can produce this list of 10-11 then he is average. I don't think this is possible not to mention finding 21 better teams with production of 1st day draft picks that would show him to be worse than average. This calculation doesn't even add the Bledsoe factor which paid off for us in a big way in 2002 as the 2003 pick which would produce nothing for us in 2002 was turned into acquisition of a player who QB'ed us when we went from 3-13 to 8-8, set 11 (I think) single season Bills passing records and qualified for the Pro Bowl (if you disagree name the player who you think made DB the 4th most deserving QB in the AFC of this honor. To me the acquisition of Bledsoe with the 2003 draft pick was a wash at worst because his 2002 was pretty good and his 2003 sucked as bad as you want to suck, He should have been cut in the 2003-4 off-season but (particularly if you want to tanlgle the web with replacing the pick used for Bledsoe with the pick for WM which replaced it) I think it is beside the point of this assessment for the most part as I view DB a wash if TD had not made the mistake of resigning him. I'd give him a B+ at worse and probably an A- for his first day draft work. B. 2nd day of th draft- 2001- Her is where you can begin t show that TD has not accomplished the Andre Reedesque job of finding productive starters late in the draft. I have no idea how prevalent this is in the reat of the league as clearly there are high profile cases where this has been done (Brady- 6th round, Dever;s RB whatever his name was) but generally somone would need to show in a statical way beyond anecdotes like Wilfork that the typical NFL GM produces a starter from the second day picks before credibly faulting Teflon Tom for not doing this. He has not produced these players himself so obviously he is not among the best at second day picks, but the case needs more than simply saying he sucks to really be believable that everyone else does not suck drafting starters on the second day as well. The 2001 2nd day crew amounted to 7 picks (a good thing because we were rebuilding and we needed them). TD failed as none of these 7 are still with the team. However, I don't think you can label this a total failure as he did get 2 somewhat productive years out of the play of Spoon and Sullivan. In addition, 2 of these seven failed due to injuries (Germany) and crime (the flyer Robertson) and it is tough to fault a GM for these choices. TD was not among the best here but without some showing that the norm is better this does not seen anywhere near a firable offense, 2002- Only 3 of 6 are still on the roster (with Pucillo only marginally there as a UFA). With these 6, Thomas looks like a good pick who plays a solid backup role which strikes me as consistent with a 6th round player. He merited the tender we gave him. Bannan looked good as rookie, but seems to show more promise as a G in the redzone than for use as the DT he was drafed as. The lose of Phat Pat to FA should give him a chance to show what he can do as a DT. 2003- Again too early to tell, but many signs point to the play of these 5 second day players to have been an outstanding job by TD and the crew. The play of McGee who actually made and deserved a Pro Bowl nod last year s he set team records for kick returns is just what you want out of a second day find. If TD had made similar hits with his first two drafts then one could easily judge him in the upoper reaches but he did not so judging him average at best seems reasonable. However, McGee has performed and due to his ST play and injury is essentially contributing like a starter. In addition, Aiken is a back-up who gets field time and has the potential to achieve value as our #3 WR which is not equal to the hopes MW has turned his game around, but nor is it equal to the likelihood of failure of a Reed. Haggan is like Crowell. However, though Crowell has not lived up to 1st day expectatuions and cap hit, Haggan has easily lived up to 2nd day expectations and cap hit with his play on ST. Sape and Sobieski are PS players who TD gets credit for them still being on the roster, but neither shows any signs of being productive Bills though gaps left by the starters on OL and DT make it too early to declare them busts yet. 2004- Too early to tell. However, mention should be made that 2nd day choice Smith already has produced a TD and may well be the PR guy we have wanted and allow Clements to risk his neck playing CB rather than risk our CB returning punts, Euhus also has been slowed by injury but his TD and receptions were threatening to give TD and the crew another producing starter taken on the 2nd day.Too early to tell with McFarland but he seems to be ahead of Sobieski in development. He isn't up to the JJ track, but has more in common with his level of production than with the Spbieski non production. Overall on the second day, I think TD easily gets at least a B for the last two year to go with his F the first two years. it's too early to declare victory on the last two drafts, but a Pro Bowl berth for McGee and TDs by Smith and Euhus cannot be ignored either by a real assessment. As far as TD as a draft leader I think you throw in the B+/A- for the first day with the C- for the second day and overall as a GM I would comfortably give him a B (or maybe even a B+) as a draft leader. As I am giving a C to an average drafter. Overall, i think a statistical case which showed other GMs produce a starter a year on the second day of the draft and that other teams in the last 4 years have prodcued substantially more Pro Bowlers from the folks they acquired with 1st day picks (Bledsoe, Henry and Clements have made it), or gotten substantially more starts (though starts such as the Edwards, Denny, Sullivan starts say as much about the weakeness of the Butler left crew as the do about TD's acuman), or some measure of the endorsements of contracts given to draftees (by this measure TD made a great assessment in picking JJ to be drafted though Bills fans may have trouble with his FA management). I just do not think that the indictment of TD being worse than the norm in terms of draft assessment and draft resouce manipulation is based on anything beyond unsbustntiated or episodically substantiated opinion. Overall, my quick sense of TD is this (listed in no order of import as i think hiring an HC is far more important to building a winner than draft management and is the primary failing why TD has produced such a poor W/L during his era. Draft Direction B+ (A- 1st day C- second day). The results of achievement in the last two years of second day choices like McGee, Euhus and Smith provides some great hop here. Hiring HCs C-. think GW was an F inspired by TD needing to hire someone he could fire if they got into a fight like he and Cowher did. i think that MM has proved to be a B- hire after one season. He is a significantly better than average (my C) but did not make the playoffs which would have earned him a solid B in my book even if he made an early exit. Feel free to lower this grade to a D if 3 years of GW weigh more heavily than a year of MM. FA dealing- A- I give TD high marks for gauging the market well and attracting FAs like Spikes here even though it is not the big city. His handling and management of the Sam Adams deal was masterful. The signing of Moorman to a long term deal was brilliant. I agree with his decision not to invest what the market gave to AW, JJ and Phat Pat in these players. They are good players but simply overpriced at what the market will bear. I'm tempted to reduce this grade to a B+ because he has totally misread the kickers market and extending JH and HJ when he got here to simply cut them was dumb. However, these strike me as minor issues compared to the general trend. Managing the Business- A- As best as i can tell on the interstices of returning a dollar to Ralph TD has done all that the master requires of him and more, From hgigh profile individual deals like the partnership with St. John's Fisher to day to day management issues TD seems to be doing a great off the field job and this probably matters as much as his on field production in terms of keeping Ralph happy though us fans couldn't care less and measure his performance by on field stuff. Assembling a staff- B TD has been able to attract and hire quality folks from Tom Modrak to the medical staff that made the right call on WM. Despite the high quality of most of the braintrust, this grade gets pulled down by GW being allowed a bunch of guys who were simply not ready for primetime on his coaching staff. The grade was much lower a year ago as the GW crew (particularly the fire Kevin Killdrive and Ruel) simply weighed down this effort and the good folks generally hired. The Bills seemed to have been able to retain for the most part the good folks from the GW era (error) like Gray while letting the worst go elsewhere. At any rate, overall I think despite the fact many of the particulars are well run TD still gets an overall grade of at best a C-. W/L is the ultimate measure and it is only because the current record is finally a winning one at 9-7 which bodes well for the future that he is not anchored at F because othe massive failure under GW.

Folksseem to be equating financial remuneration with moral judgment. these two things can be directly related but in our society they are intrinsically different. Life is not always fair believe it or not. She certainly deserves the money and untold riches (likely to come from book and movie deals) if the story is true as she tells it (I assume it is right now certainly), but this is a different question than wether she meets the financial strictures and requirements to qualify for the reward money. My guess is she will get it without knowing much about the customary practice with such reward offers in the jurisdiction of Atlanta where it was offered and where any dispute is likely to be adjudicated if one exists. Customarily these reward offers are designed to be an incentive to get the general public to thinks hard about what they see and discover connections that lead to apprehension or to create an incentive which emboldenms folks to call in what may be a coincidence but may be a crime. They also can provide a financial incentive to get someone who knows the criminal to turn them in. She would likely fit into the first general customary practice as a member of the public and would not be disqualified because she was forced into deep involvement with him. esides, in our society 60K is chump change and someone will easily provide or make-up for this amount.

I think that these two elcted officials made a judgement that it helps them electorally to do this. My guess is that both the Williamsvile and North Buffalo area that DeBenedetti and Weinstein represent as a whole love the Bills as most WNY do. However, as part of the more upscale economic parts of the region their areas tend to have a lower amount of football watcher, avid Bills fans, and folks who watch and gleefully gamble in office pools and with bookies because a higher percentage of their constituents can gamble in the stock market or with bond funds for their gambling fix. By dropping this load, they give themselves the ability to answer constituent questions as to why we are signing sweetheart deals with Ralph by saying they have tried to control that side of the equation and that should be sufficient for their electoral purposes as a serious proposal from them to really squeeze dollars from this side of the equation would run into the Business Backs the Bills part of the world and Erkie Kilbourne would give them a call. They are at war with Giambra and have sufficiently shaken his nest so I would suspect this is it for real action.

Casinos do not kick people out because the system operators are taking them to the cleaners. Casinos kick these people out because they are taking money from the other rubes who play the game and no casino wants to develop a rep as a place where card counters can easily take the rubes because then the rubes would tend to avoid that casino in large enough numbers that it would impact the casinos take. The casino does not make money by knowing the odds and beating the player. The casino makes beaucoup bucks by having lots of folks place bet and skimming a percentage of the money which changes hands off for heir services. For example, take an example that most people are familar with, The World Series of Poker. The casinos do not care at all who wins or whether folks play well or not. They have already made tons of dollars by having thousands of people pay $10,000 bucks to enter and then they skim whatever percentage of this pool for themselves off the top and redistribute the majority of these funds to the winners. The players are not competing against the casino, they are competing against each other and the casino is taking a hefty cut for providing a venue for this activity. Likewise with football betting. The lines are set not to judge which team is better, but to attract betters so that as close as possible to 50% bet on each team. In most cases, a team is judged to be signficantly better so you have to give the team judged the lesser a point advanatage to achieve the 50% breakdown and attract even more betters to the opportunity and thus have more money flow through the casino for them to skim their cut. The only way they can get hurt is if their line is so bad it does not attract near the same numbers to each bet, the larger number of betters win and even then the amount would need to exceed the casinos cut for handling the transaction in order for them to lose money. Casinos are businesses and they do not gamble. They take their cash off the top and let you gamble. They make a show of keeping the folks who win with a system which the rubes cannot use out of the casino so you will come spend your money, but could not care less that someone is taking rubes to the cleaners as long as the rubes keep coming.

These certainly are team needs this year, but the draft is likely to be of marginal help at best for addressing the 2005 team needs. Early first round drafted OL players do step right in to start and contribute to teams, but this number goeas way down quick as it seems to be the rare OL player who does not need a bit of schooling at the pro game before he is ready to contribute. Even a talent such as Orlando Pace had a slow beginning and was a negative and a big problem for them the first half of his rookie season after his hold out and the half way point roughly found him finally being adequate because of his enormous size and talent. JJ was a good draft pick for the Bills because this later pick actually was able to start in his rookie season later in the year, though as he never has started 16 games in a season in his career, started as few as 12 games year before last and got nucked often enough that even last season Price had to finish what he started that it seems quite unlikely the draft will help this team that much. We seem to have other more critical immediate needs like TE after Ehus and Campbell both went down to injury that we are gonna go that way and the draft will probably be used to pick a project who can contribute next year or down the line rather than solve need problems. The remaining FAs, trade, cap casualties and most of all development of talent already on the roster seems a far more likely place to find OL help for this team than the draft which will help next year or the year after teams.

On the specific point of this thread, I doubt JP's prescence has a definable or definite impact on attractiveness to FAs: 1). His prescence at QB over DBs cuts both ways- For some it is an upgrade over DBs bad plat and for others it is a downgrade from a vet to a youngster. As this team's record was more determined by excellent D and ST play the switch does add up o a lockstep choice for evey FA in terms of assessment of Bills prospects so I see no trend. 2). Some folks hate problems but other folks love them as challenges- Again there strikes me as no lockstep choice that all or even most FAs make or that they all make the same choice with the same intensity of their ultimate judgment being effected. Some FAs might judge JP as a great talent and thus choose not to come here because the youngster will get all the attention (would a back-up QB get a real shot here?). Others might judge him a likely failure and want to come here (the back-up FA QB decides to come here because he thinks JP will fail and he will start). Thus FAs making the same assessment of JP might make totally different decisions depending on their personal goals and personality make-up. 3) Other factors will have a bigger impact on our prospects than JPs play- MMs whole game is not so much to have the QB star and carry the team, but to have the QBs options be so unpredictable he and the team are difficult to defense. The D and ST became such leaders on this team in fostering blow-outs that JP as a younster needs to be thought of more as making few mistakes to bring us victory (something RoboQB did as a rookie in Pitts last year during regular season so it could hapen rather than JP being John Elway and carrying the team which probablty will not happen). I agree with the post up above that if an FA is influenced most by a question of whether the Bills can win the division next year, he is better off judging how vulnerable NE is rather than how good JP is in figuring the potential for us to win the division. I simply see no consistent trend regarding JP that is driving FAs away or bringing them here. The broader point which several posts lapsed into (as any Bledsoe obsessed poster would was assessing last season's failure. I think folks are simply short-sighted to lay all over even most of the blame on the door of Bledsoe's play. Granted DBs play was insufficient and inadeqate, but he had a far better 2004 than his horrendous season of 2003. He played a critical role in helping the team to victory in a few games last year (though he never carried the team to victory in a Montana/Elway fashion). This is shown for example in his receiving a couple of As and several Bs for his play from Bills Daily. However. he also stunk up the joint and received and deserved a couple of Fs for bad play that hurt this team. Bills Daily grades are not the be all and end all of correct QB assessment, but they do make a good point in that they even gave Bledsoe a D for horrid individual play in a game the Bills won in a blow-out. QB play is important often central to the game outcome in terms of W/L but it can also be conter to the final outcome. I think Bledsoe can correctly be faulted for not being Joe Montana and making the judgments which would bring us to victory. I think he can be correctly faulted for not being John Elway and running or passing us to victory. However, almost all QBs are no Montana or Elway or have their skills and this requirement would be dumb to aspire to. If anything, fault Bledsoe for not performing like a Trent Dilfer and getting in the Ds (and the ST in our case) way as they dragged us to victory. I think that BINYC's point is a good one praising WM for his work in a shortened season as one of the real plusses for the Bills last year. However, if one agrees with this point then a poster can more logically find fault with Henry than with Bledsoe as the overarching cause of our losses last year. Personally, I find it a bit facile to blame any one player for killing the season as my sense is that you win and lose as a team. Certainly a change can bring marginal or even significant improvement, but even signficant improvement is just a cog in the wheel and can easily be overcome or pointed to falsely as THE LEAD FACTOR. Bledsoe failed us by not carrying the team when we needed to be carried in the Pitts game, but I think our bigger problems in that critical game was that the D and ST failed to play at a level they had achieved throughout the season. As the buck stops with the HC, if you want to blame anyone for that loss, I would blame MM and TC because they seemed to be overwhelmed by the enormous opportunity the game provided us and did not prepare their players to step up the way they did when we went to Seattle.

Look, I'm into football for entertainment and the illusion of the game. I don't care if DeMulling is the player we need to fill outy our OL and deliver us to glory. As a fan i would say he has hacked around to much and allowed to many rumors that he would sign as quickly as possible, that he would sign this weekend and now that he will sign on Monday to get out there and be unfulfilled. I revel as anyone in figuring out the business and salart cap part of this. However, unltimately I'm just a fan and only liked to be trifled with so much before even i say enough is enough. DeMulling has every right to play the Lions and the Bills off against each other to get the largest contract he can get, but at least do something for the fans to allow us to maintain the illusion that this more than a business and a player is merely a hired gun going to the highest bidder. So as a fan, I urge TD to stick to his budget and if DeMulling wants to go suck on exhaust pipes in Detroit then so be it. I'd rather see us look to one of the other many options to build an acceptable line (develop internally Tucker, Teague, MW, Villarial, a newbie like Gandy, Smith, McFarlnd or even Jason Peters to man the OL positions, or look around the remaining FAs and get the best one and if it means resigning Marcus Price to give us depth, or make a deal for Shelton, or put a priority on trading Henry fir the best available draft pick or use our 2nd rounder to get a guy like Baas or someone we envision starting sooner rather than later rather than a project in the later rounds, or look at whatever cap casualties are there come June, than have us crawl across glass for DeMulling even if he can make the difference. My pride is foolish and thank gosh it ain't my money on the line and not my decision or I would just as soon let him go than be jerked around. If he is signed I'm sure I will forgive an forget but at best Mr, DeMulling has some splaining to do to Bills fans.

I think these are two of the primary questions facing the Bills in terms of OL choices. I'm afraid the answer is that I (and we all) have our guesses but we are missing two big sets of info that really will determine reality and what the best thing to do is. Without really knpwomg the facts on these two points we certainly are welcome and free to guess, but really even an informed fans opinion is little more than a fact-free opinion on the OL. The unknow key fact are: 1. What is the actual language on the contracts- Clumpy has done outstanding research and his numbers are the best numbers available, but he is among the first two say that even his "best possible" numbers may well not be accurate in significant ways. Whle we know a lot of facts from looking at the NFLPA.com site where the posted cap figures are accurate, because if they lie they are lying to the players who pay their checks and if they have bad info then their partners in the NFL ownership are lying or being lied to which will bring down the whole CBA. We are still missing significant facts such as when roster bonuses are being paid, whether the bonuses are being paid as base salary or amortized as bonuses. etc. The whole Ruben Brown being cut last year came virtually out of the blue because he was due a salary bonus which forced the Bills to cut him in the off-season. We are simply missing key data which makes a huge difference in how you build a line and whether you keep a player or not almost regardless of how he plays. 2. What is the JMac plan- He has been with OLs which have made the Big Dance three times and led the way for productive rush games and protected relatively immobile QBs. Not giving this 25 year vet the benefit of the doubt (particulaly after he replaced guys who had a combined 4 years of OL position coaching when they got canned and who were running the blocking for the fired Sheppard and Kevin Killdrive. JMac can be both a vast improvement and not good at all at the same time. Fortunately he shows every sign of still being good when he was part of pullimg offa winning record. seeing a huge reduction in the Bills sack totals and did this with a very talented young RB, an OL in disarray through the work of the previous regime, abd a less than mobile QB. Like no ther unit in the game the whole of the OL can be far more productive than the skills of the individual players. One need look no further than what JMac was able to pull off with an OL in NYC that made the SB with Dusty Ziegler and Glenn Parker as two of the more talented players on the OL after we saw them have big problems with their game here. using a previously failed two time loser QB (Kerry Collins) and having a talented runner with such huge fumble problems (Tiki Barber) he made Travis look like an Ironman with the ball. JMac may well end up with players correctly judged by us as having less talent (Womack? Shelton? DeMulling? and he may develop a plan, train these players and put them together so they are productive. There's just no telling for sure, but for right now, I think it is totally correct to give JMac and the Bills the benefit of the doubt even if the selections and signings looks simply assinine to us/ Of course as fans, if they abuse this trust by posting a losing record or missing the playoffs yet again it strikes me as totally legit for us to jump on the job they did with both feet. Trust but verify. As far as your two questions: 1) DeMulling seems to be the best player available in FA right now. The prospect of getting solid center play out of him and allowing us to shift Teague to the LT slot seems reasonable and doable to me. However, there are many other OL options out there (Internal development of Tucker as our C allowing Teague to go to LT, a trade for Shelton allowing him to go to LT, spending a high draft pick (either our 2nd or one acquired in a trade for Henry for a prospect who can play an interior line position immediately, picking up a cap casualtie come June, that if JMac thinks he can make one of these options work and paying $3 million annually for DeMulling is to much I can go with this. 2: I think there is reasonable potential for MW to succeed at LT. He was horribly untrained his first two years suffering under the inexperienced Vinky and Ruel. It was rediclous and counter to hi development to have hin have to carry Sullivan as a rookie and Pucillo as a second year player next to him. I'm shocked he and the OL were as productive as they were his first two years. His mini-camp last year was disgusting. His melting down when the Grandma who raised him died was certainly understanable, but it is not condonable at all. He was unprofessional and let his teammates and the entire region down. In the real world you suck it up despite a horrible death and be a professional. He gets paid to well to react like Joe Average. However, all the tea leaves look good that MW has learned from this horrible experience and the carrots (a game ball as the streak began) and sticks of the Bills braintrust (JMac fooling MW and ICE into believing that he would sacrifice future pay by being moved inside to guard even though he showed no outside rush problems and actually stunts and working in traffic were bigger problems for him. Why move him inside where he would likely play worse? Is MW he real deal and able to not only handle the RT slot but even make the flip to LT? Too early to tell, but the tea leaves look good. He needs to dominate this year or the Bills should renegotiate or cut him. Under JMac\s guidance and with Villarial next to him I think the amazing combo of size and agility he showed at the combine that got him drafted should emerge on the field and I think (hope) he will be OK. However, as informed as I feel this opinion is, it and a dollar won't even get you a cup of Latte.

I think your good pos raises a couple of points: 1. The Milloy spending is a tough one to judge because like it or not folks he has been a contributor to this team and he really has shown that though he clearly is on the downhill side of his career he has proved to be a productive player for the Bills.His tackle numbers have only trailed those of the playmaking Bills LBs, his prescence coincided with far greater productivity from our D and from time to time he has proven to be a playmaker with some crucial fumble recoveries and sacks. Though his gargantuan cap hit makes this good but no great productivity questionable in terms of bang for the buck, people who view this only in terms of tackles/dollar are forgetting the fact that when he came into the maket supply and demand told the story for setting his salary not an absolute assssment of his production. When he suddenly entered the market when BB bollicksed negotiations with him and had to cut him he was the only former pro bowl safety available. This happened to coincide with the Bills agreeing to terms with Cota and then Battles only to see them retire. Add to that the Bears also were in the market for a safety and had tons of cap room and though TD paid a mint for him it was what the market demanded. Overall, am expemsove but necessary signing for us. 2. TSW posters routinely over-value the draft as THE key part of a strategy for building a good team. It is an important part because good players have to come from somewhere. However, it offers as many problems as much as advantages because: A. The slotting makes early draft choices a likely negative for a team to have as even if a player does well his cap hit makes it impossible for your team to win (ex: Manning and Leaf have delivered exactly the same number of SB berths and even virtually the same number of playoff wins to the teams that drafted them despite the extraordinary difference in their quality of play(. B. TD estimates it at about 50/50 that a 1st round draft pick will turn out to be a good player in this league and I have seen no numbers to doubt this estimate. Being good is simply not a reliable defense to offset the cap problem caused by 1st round picks. In my view the best thing TD has done is routinely trade away our first round pick, trade down to a lower pick to get and get the guy we want like Clements, or pick a wounded phenom like WM so he can sign him to a reasonable cap number so you don't het hit as often by the likely 1st round disasters. Fantasy league addicion and our fascination with stats makes us fans love the drama of the draft, but it flat out sucks in terms of winning football.

Matthews is my first choice. he would be grossly inadequate to count on as a #2 but fits the bill quite nicely for a #3. Kordell Stewart is my choice as a second choice at #3. Folks need to realize that the requirements of a #1 are different than the requirements for a #2 and that requirements for a #3 differ from both the guys ahead of them. If only because of the salary cap you are necessarily going to have guys who are not up to the consistency of the higher position and if the vaguries of the cap allows you to get someone who should be a #1 as your #2 or a #3 who should be a #2, then you are simply setting yourself up for a QB controversy.

Cliff notes: I hope matthews is back as our #3 and if he retires Kordell Stewart is my choice for our disaster QB. Cliff notes end I actually say a Matthews would be fine because the two hob descriptions i would have for a #3 are that: 1) He is a vet clipboard career who has seen a lot and has a good relationship with the lead QBs and the staff so he can help in the training. After a year with the Bills in which he got to know the Bills O, Losman and the coaching staff this 11 year veteran who did not accomplish much as a player fits the bill. 2) A disaster QB who will almost certainly not be used, but if disaster struck and you did having the #1 ranked QB in the NFL in spot duty last year is not a bad way to go. If Matthews retires, then i like Kordelia as my #3. He has been there before having made the SB as a youngster and knows the coaching staff well having had a career revival under MM. He did not throw a pass last year, but proved willing and able to even punt for the Ravens last year. Given our questions at #3 WR I feel OK about having the Slash around though I would envision him as a #4 WR if we used him consistently and I hope Reed recovers or Aiken steps up instead.

This sounds like a likely scenario to me and it will be a shame from my perspective as a Bills fan because trading him for a draft pick (even a #1 next year if a team were foolish enough to ignore the market and do that) is essentially the same as trading him for nothing in return for this team.

It amazes me that folks look to spin ornate theories to explain the OL problems centering on things they cannot possibly know for sure when it pretty much strikes me as being explained by the bad decision to hire a first HC GW with no real offensive feel and commitment. The fact GW saw the OL of such importance that he hired his buddy with zero Ol coaching experience to run the unit and the replace him with a guy with one year's experience tells you all you need to know to understand our failure and problems here.

I'll check it out. i must admit i gave up on watching professional boxing somewhere in between Mike Tyson biting someone's ear off and FanMan descending upon a match.

Thanks for the posts as this may be worth a look. All I had seen was the commericals which seemed to emphasize this more as a soap opera using boxing as an excuse for smaltz with an aging Sly Stalone and an aging Sugar Ray Leonard as the folks trying to bring some validity (Leonard seemed to be a has-been with this use and it simply reminded me that Stallone was a never was as far as athletics is concerned). However, if there is some good sports here I should tune in. Does the actual boxing match happen in the last 10 minutes or so, so I can restrict my watching to that?

Many thanks! I understand the failings of my rants and because of thoughtful posts such as this I have tried to alter them in the past with items like using Cliff Notes for my drones. I should probably bite the bullet and do a bit more editing and produce more compact posts. I will give it a try.

My guess is that he has already made his choice and he is setting up a bidding war between two parties to get the maximum he can get out of his choice or at the very least he has a favorite and is still playing the two businesses off against each other. I'd love to get DeMulling, but I hope TD holds firm on his offer and its too bad if deMulling goes to Detroit, but we should not blow the cap budget for a player unless there is such a screaming need for him because he is so good or we have no other alternatives. DeMulling filla need for us in bringing stability to an OL which suffered for years from poor investments during the Butler era and under the inexperienced Vinky and Ruel under GW in the beginning of the TD era. We have a variety of plans A,B,C and D alternatives for improving the OL if it doesn't happen in FA (namely trade, draft, cap casusaties and internal development) if DeMulling does not happen.

Thanks for saw him alot in Denver feedback and perspective it adds to the Teague file. I think your observations are not inconsistent with what i saw of him as a Bill and actually I feel fine about giving him a go at LT as long as we pick up a better center to do the job there. I think Teague has something to offer as the C for the Bills, but it is not hard for me to imagine at all that we could get better play from another player at C at a reasonable price which would allow us to move Teague to the LT spot I think he can do the job there. One thing you can prodvide some insight on from being around for his Denver LT gig is to provide a sense as to what degree the ACL injury that put him on the IR the year before his Denver gig slowed him down at all. He obviously had recovered well enough to play in Denver (good news for the Bills as until he went out 4 games last year for us, I really did not worry about injury as an issue for Teague despite his previous serious ding). It would be even better news forthe Bills if the sometimes longer than expected recovery from his previous injury played a role in Denver deciding not to blow the wad on him allowing the Bills to capture him at a relatively low cost. I suspect that if Teague were to move back to LT for us, he actually may be a better player than he was was at LT for Denver because I suspect learning to play center for the Bills and needing to understand the play, roles anc capability of the entire OL would help his LT play. If added to that his performance was slowed somewhat but not totally in Denver by recovery from injury, then I will look forward to him taking on the LT role. Even if Teague was adequate at best at LT in Denver, it is reasonable to expect him to get better because he has learned a lot about effective line play and cooridination and he is fully recovered from his IR injury, I think it is pretty reasonable for us to be quite hopeful about him at LT. My big question would be about having an effective replacement for him at C. Tucker maybe, but if JMac got DeMulling with the sense he was a better C than Teague, this OL would look quite good to me.

Yep, that sums it up. Thanks for the cliff notes! The rest I'm just thinking it through for myself and I find that writing the thoughts down allows me to give it some order. To the extent that folks want to read my rantings because it triggers their own thinking or adds things they haven't thought about or have not been able to give too much time to I think that is fine and appreciate any reactions, To the extent my rantings are just dronings and they pass them by that is quite fine also. To the extent folks find my dronings a waste of their time and they waste their time reading it sorry but I can't control what they choose to read. To the extent they waste even more time responding on TSW to these dronings, well maybe they need to talk to a psychologist about their choices, its beyond me.

I'm one who thinks getting a draft choice for Henry is worthless this year and being a future is now kind of guy getting a speculative risky future draft pick (even a higher one) ain't much in terms of value. I think TD is right on target refusing to trade Henry unless we get a good return for him and a good return to me is not a draft pick its a vet at a need position (Henry for Shelton would be great though it looks unlikely, Henry for the Fins McMichael would be superb and is only even possible because he is an FA after next season he Fins will have cap difficulty resigning and Henry is not an FA until after next season as well but shouldd command less than McMichael and the Fins don't have a second this year anyway). Its obviously heading toward time for the Bills and Henry to think seriously about mending fences and Henry playing his way to the FA contract he wants as a back-up to WM. This will be a semi-hard employee management task for the Bills to fulfill TDs words of wanting him to come back, but sucking it up as a back-up to WM may be the only choice in Henry's interests. Many posters seem to dislike Henry big time, but he has no contractual option to sit out the season as he would not accrue FA time. Were he to simply punch the clock but not play hard, it will give him a second consecutive season of non-productivity and hurt his market value big time. Further, we he to simply pout and not play hard as a WM back-up he would harden his rep as a cancer which will hurt his negotiating ability for the new contract and also cause the word among the players to be that Henry as a teammate will not watch your back. Henry has demonstrated that he is a pliable sole, as shown by him getting into financial trouble that TD and the Bills took advantage of by getting him for another season for NFL chump change. However, rather than his pliability being a problem for the Bills he has clearly taken advice to shut up when his words after the WM drafting expressed discontent. Posters need to understand and address that even though they are not comfortable with Henry as the Bills starting RB (due to in my mind false thoughts that he is a horredous receiver- he took in over 40 catches in 2002 when he was used this way and fewer in 2003 when the Kevin Killdrive O went south and though he has some high profile drops look at quality receivers like Moulds and tell me what player never drops the ball, his droppsies are no where near the issue is has been for players like Moulds or Reed, they get thrown to more but their droppsies were bigger issues in my book, that he is horrendous at blitz pick-up compared to WM- blitz pick-up was an issue for Henry as it is for almost all rookies in 2001 but was not something folks worried about in 02 and 03 until folks began looking for issues in 04. Even as far as WM being better at this I remember him struggling like all rookies early last season and as the season progressed it was less of a problem for WM primarily because his outside run success [which is far better than Henry's] backed out LBs from commiting to the blitz against him) that a true assessment of Henry is not whether he is a viable #1 (he is not compared to WM) but is he is a viable #2. These two jobs and roles are different and I am quite comfortable with Henry as my #2 RB even if i have dioubts about him as my #1 RB.