Fake-Fat Sunny

The whole Clements what do we do for the seasln after next seems like such a pipe dream that it defines unbased off-season consideration in my view. Certainly TD is thinking about the long-term and scenarios to deal with thin inform most of the scenarios, but TD is MOSTLY (not all, but mostly) thinking about the short-term and that is what is going to drive judgments about him. TDs MO (if any) for the Bills has been one of getting immediate benefit up front in exchange for giving away future considerations (Bledsoe trade, Losman trade) and even when he gets a player who will sit for a while (WM, Losman) he gets them and has his braintrust put them to work. Any Clements theorizing needs to be driven by a couple of factors: 1. What does it give us in 2005 which improves the team for performance this year. 2. What will the team give up in terms of usable resources in 2005 in a deal and how will they be compensated for this year. It seems pretty doubtful to me that TD is going to go into this season with McGee and Vincent as his starting CBs. It seems pretty doubtful that TD will see much value in getting a player in the 2005 draft who will have to sit, learn and not contribute this year without having a Travis Henry like player to fill the gap while this player sits as he did for WM.

Look. the off-season is not done by a long shot. In addition to drafting players we will see: 1. Several UDFAs signed who may well make the squad and even see significant playing time like Rashad Baker, Jabari Greer and Jason Peters did last year. 2. Additional FA signings after the June 1st cap cuts. 3. A player or two surprising in pre-season with their off-seaspn development. 4. Even a potential out of the blue late signing like the sudden opportunity which Lawyer Milloy gave the Bills. If one is worried about finding two replacement starters and some more depth I see no problem here. Complaints about inactivity this off-season given the Bills improvements under the partial implementation of the MM system which comes with any fisrt time HC sound like complaints that Tigher Woods will really prove he is good when he makes sure the Nike logo is horizontal rather than vertical when the ball hesitates before dropping into the hole on a long chip shot at the 16th hole.

I can't believe Tiger messed up. Clearly a truly great one would have had the ball hesitate at the hole with the logo on the horizontal rather than vertical. He has been taking apart and working on his swing for months, I guess its back to the drawing board for him.

The Bills had the opportnity to not offer Thomas a tender that kept him a Bill and did so unlike other players they had no plans for (ex. Pucillo) and other players they eventually resigned after exposing the player to the market (ex. Burns). Clearly Thomas is part of the Bills plans and Greer will certainly compete for the nickel slot with him. but has a couple of layers to step up before he is even in the running for a starting slot.

Each season brings me to question the sanity of several GMs when i see moves they make so certainly this is no disqualifier of the potential for a good deal for Henry. A friend of mine with whom i used to lead Outward Bound style camping trips with summarized dealing with kids by saying don't look for logic where there isn't any. I think that is true for many GMs as well.

I think the correct answer is nobody knows for sure, because this draft market is so difficult to set because it is generally seen as a much weaker draft than last year (clearly the assessment varies by position as this year's QB crop is generally judged to be far less talented than last year's Manning/Rivers/RoboQB/Losman crew but this year's RB crop looks to be deeper as far as those judged to be 1st round worthy RBs). To make matters even more difficult to predict, though the RB crop is strong (which generally lowers Henry's value as a better RB can almost definitely be had with a top 10 RB pick) pickings are so slim at other positions like QB or CB that if a team like AZ, TB or Miami spends a top 10 pick to fill their RB hole these teams run the risk of not being able to get a player they desperately need at another position. The depth of the RB pool actually seems to be enhancing Henry as trade bait because teams do not seem to want to risk going into the 2nd round or even into the 3rd for their marquee RB even in this deep RB draft. Henry provides a cap friendly former Pro Bowler 2005 pick that is attractive to a team looking to promote their product as moving beyond the Emmit Smith or the Wickey Williams era. A team will not be able to do this promotion with the 5th or higher RB taken even if he could be the next Julius Jones. Folks seem to be now wondering if the Bills have soured on Shelton after his visit here (maybe but I guess probably not because even an injured Shelton is better than Dylan McFarland or disrupting our OL continuity by shifting Teague to LT) or whether we view ourselves as good to go on the OL with the pick-up up of Gandy and Anderson for the left side (I doubt it as I think Gandy is a far more likely to be the player to replace Marcus Price as a handyman rather than as a starting quality LT). As best as i can tell, TD has clearly demponstrated he is a master of understandingthe market as the last couple of drafts have seen some outstanding market moves by the Bills: 1. Picking WM surprised everyone because folks judged Henry's performance coming off a Pro Bowl berth as making RB a non-need for the Bills. Instead, TD trusted his docs and saw that Henry's performance allowed the Bills to not only pick WM, but devote his first year to rehab to turn this top-5 level talent into a producer. 2. The WM pick showed the mastery of the marketplace TD has as it was his tagging of Price that produced this pick after he had drafted Reed who fell to the 2nd round when people perceived us as having no WR need. He dealt with filling the perceived need by trading up to grab Denney was a demonstrably tremendous market read as Pitts was on the phone with him when the Bills zipped in. Again some folks shortsightedly view the pick of Kelsay as a clear showing that Denney was a failed reach. However, this ignores the fact that with the GW inspired shift from the 3-4 to the 4-3 we were likely gonna be picking DL players high in the draft because this increased DL demand coincided with lower DL supply as we lost Wiley to FA, Big Ted and Bruce as cap casualties and Hansen to retirement. An objective demonstration of the Denney pick working for us is that he allowed us to go only 3 deep at DL as he proved capable of backing up both Kelsay and Schobel. Anyone who wants to claim Denney simply sucked needs to explain how our D finished ranked statistically among the best in the league with a DE rotation which consisted on only 3 players. 3. The trade for the Losman pick last year looks masterful on many different levels as: A. many pundits judge him to be a better talent than almost all if not all the QBs available in this year's draft. B. By picking Losman at #21 last year we got a QB with the 2005 pick (+) who now has a year of pro experience and who has a lower salary than it would have taken to get a QB this year. Overall, i think the Bills are in the driver's seat right now because AZ abd Green screwed up in a number of ways: A. Both Shelton and Green have bad-mouthed each other so it is pretty clear that one way or the other AZ must move him. Henry is virtually certain a goner as a Bill, but TD has always spoken highly of him and if the Bills do not move him his two choices are to make peace and try to get the big contract he wants as a back-up to WM or pull a Wckey Williams and leave the game. AZ needs to deal with the real possibility that the Bills will merely wait until June and sign the cap casualty Shelton for no trade loss. B. Green miscalculated badly the league interest in Shelton. There is limited interest not simply due to assessment of Shelton but actually the LT market is pretty thin as most team have been overpaying to get an LT for years. As big dollars are locked in for average players like Petitgout or Clifton there simply is limited demand for LTs. There were actually few landing pads for Jennings (SF was one of very few if any teams with an LT opening and cap room and they overpaid for Jennings as best as I can tell) and there is now one fewer for Shelton even if he is healthy. C. AZ added a couple of potential LTs top their roster in addion to the highly paid Leonard Davis who took Shelton;s job. AZ simply will need to get rid of Shelton merely to make their cap busget. It may well be that the Bill's docs saw something they did not like or that JMc sees something he doesn't want to work with. However, far more likely to me is that TD has read the market and knows that he has AZ over a barrel. Even worse for AZ, there are rumors floating around out there that a team like TB with tons of picks and limited cap room may be interested in the cap friendy Henry and though Miami does not have a #2 round pick, they desperately need to use their #1 to fill several holes left by the Wannstedt miscalculations and bad luck of Fiedler, Boston, and Gordon (I think that is the name of their last RB trade error) and the need to get beyond the Wickey episode which getting a former Pro Bowl RB would help alot. I think that AZ has retreated from their original demand of a pick and Henry for Shelton to offering publicly to trade player for player to sending out strong signals that they really want Henry and folks feel it is the Bills who will not pull the trigger on a trade and a flip of picks.. I think the Bills are milking this one for all its worth.

Certainly. The first condition is that it has to be a different draft with a differet market. last i heard the 2005 draft is in a different year than the 2004 draft so the first condition is definitely met. Its important to say this because your post seems to imply and many people seem to falsly think that because one player got exchanged for a certain level draft pick in one draft that this establishes a level of value or worth for in draft choices for a player at a particular level of skill. This is simply wrong. A player at a designated level of skill can be reasonably traded for a pick and the next year a player at that same level of skill can be reasonably worth a higher or lower level pick than the first player at the same level as the market changes. A great back in a lousy draft will generally be worth a higher level pick than the very same great back in a draft heavy with good RB talent. Not only is this variable easily true across drafts, it is also true within a draft as picks are made. For example, Chris Kelsay was predicted by some to be a 1st round level talent in the year he came ou. The Bills had a huge need at DE (prompted in my mind by us moving to the 4-3 from the 3-4 with a couple of years of losing Wiley to FA, Bif Ted and Bruce as cap casualties and Hansen to retirement). Few would have blinked if TD and the Bills has used their #23 (ish or thereabouts) pick to take Kelsay in the 1st round after a run of 8 or so DL players being taken in that draft though folks would have wailed we should have traded and moved though they likely would have been the same whiners who hat TD and indict him for moving up to take Denney even though our DE need was even worse that year). However, TD read the market correctly and the Bills docs said WM was physically worth the risk as long as he was mentally diligent. The result was we got a DE touted as a potential st rounder with out 2nd pick as the teams that wanted a DE had already taken one in the 1st round rush. TD led the Bills to getting a top 5 talent (before the WM injury) with a pick in the 20s in the first and still got the DE he would have gotten if he used the 1st rounder on him. This year's RB market is far from static. The top 3 RBs (at least) are far better RB choices than Henry, but if a team picks him they will have to forgo other talent that is thinner. Teams like AZ are interested in Henry because if they use their early pick to get one of the RBs they will likely miss out on getting a CB who is ready to start. If they pick the CB they need/want with their first pick they run the risk that by the time their 2nd choice comes around they may end up with a talent at RB less than Henry or maybe they see some other need beside RB they can pick and their RB choice is then a 3rd rounder. The same is true for TB. but their cap situation is more desperate than AZs (even though they do have more draft picks) but maybe it makes more football sense to use a trade of one of their draft picks to the Bills to get a former Pro Bowler in at RB in Henry. Throw Miami into the mix who has no 2nd round pick but a huge football need to replace Wickey at RB (there is reasonable debate about whether former Pro Bowler Henry is good at all) but there is little debate that getting a former Pro Bolw RB would allow Miami to market the heck out of him (even if it is false hope) that this is a new era at RB for them. It is quite easy to evision a world or set of circumstances within even this RB laden draft to imagine a world where Henry (regardless of what you think of his value as a player) could be worth subtantial trade value. 1. Team pros operate in a fuller world than us fans do seeing trade value as being beyond a mere player assessment but being driven by a marketing assessment. 2. Team pros make different (and in my view more informed) judgments of player assessment (there are clearly pundits and team pros who place a pretty good assessment on a player who suceeded in racking up over 1000 yards rushing in his brief carreer. 3. Team pros make player assessment not merely based on some static judgment of how good they think a player is, but instead on where he fits in to their team. Most teams would easily trade even a 1st round choice for an average vet who they think can make the difference for their team or he occupies a high value or marketable position with an affordable cap hit. I can easily envision Henry commanding more in the market than Corey Dillon not because of an assessment of them as players, but because of an assessmentof this market right here and right now.

Yhe thought is frightening because not only would we have had to use a 1st round pick for a QB this year, but there is a real possibility that we would have needed to trade even more than a 2nd rounder and a 5th rounder to move our 20th pick in 2005 to the 9th pick (where the successful RoboQB was taken by Pitt last year or even higher as this years weaker QB crop is going to result in the best QBs likely being gone after the top 5 picks. Had we waited until this year to select our QB of the future, we likely would have likely: 1. Gone into this season with Kelly Holcomb as our definite #1 QB or we would have been forced to give up even more value for Garcia or someone. 2. Had to have parted with value to move up from a #2 2005 draft position to get into the top spot where a Rodgers or some other QB many judge to be of lesser potential than JP can be had. 3. Any QB drafted in 2005 would not have the years experience with the Bills and NFL football which JP now has because we traded the 2005 pick for the 2004 pick. 4. Instead of the lower contract level which came from picking our 2005 QB at the slot we got JP, we would have to pay even more for our QB of the future if we took him with this year's #20 pick (if w had not traded it to Dallas) and actually even a much higher contract and risk as we likely would have had to trade up to get Rodgers or someone. Trading the 2005 choice for the 2004 choice used on JP looks like a far and far away better move for filling the QB hole than not having made the deal and trying to address it this year.

The no brain part of the deal you suggest may well be the assumption you make that the first round choice is a starter or (even a just a player) for the Bills for 6 years. Even as one who actually thinks pretty highly of TD as a drafter, clearly his record does not indicate this is a stone cold lock: Clements was a good pick (though most would not attribute great play to him unitl year 4 so the 6 year estimate of great play is simply not there in this case), MW had good play overall in my opinion but has been a disappointment and a bit of an adventure, WM was of no value his first year though he is great now but the injury question is still there. All things look positive regarding Evans. Even with this pretty good record which does not track your predictions it is TD himself who estimates that one should only assign a 50/50 possibility to a 1st round choice panning out. Your no-brainer simply requires a lot of brains to make it work.

regarding TH? The whole thins seems to be crawling toward a close with Denny Green publicly saying they are close to finailizing a deal and praising Henry, It seems to me that a few posts have mingled two separate questions which are in fact related but are separate questions in terms of Bills fans. 1. What is the assessment of Henry as a player? 2. What is the assessment of TD as a GM trader? Some seem to want to indict TD as a fool and cite their claims that Henry is a stiff as a player to justify this assertion. They claim Henry was such a failed choice by TD that the Bills should simply cut this derelict as nobody with any football sense will trade for him. If/when this trade does down the contradiction of the two points that Travis and TD are both football idiots wll be clear. If Travis is as bad as some assert, then they should also cite just as strongly that TD is a genius for getting any trade value for this idiot (much less a vet player and a shift in draft picks), If/when this trade goes down, quite frankly as evidence or an indicator the TD portion will be done. He will have scored a major kudo as we get a player (who will still have to prove himself) but certainly stands a chance at filling the opening left by JJ at LT. Further, IF this deal results in us moving our 1st pick up to where we will almost certainly have a shot at Spencer and may well have a shot at Baas, this move would be marvelous/ Alot of work will have to be done once TH is gone as we still will have a critical need to get a #2 RB to spell WM or even step in if the injurt demon revisits, but folks will need to pick one or the other to be consistent. Either they judge TH to be a good player which legitimizes the concept (though not the fact IMHO) that TD should have got more for him. Alternately they can wail about how bad they think TH is in which case this should also be accompanied by kudos to TD for getting value for this nothing.

TDs move which really stunk op the joint and I think ia really at the center of his failed record as a GM to date is that he totally blew one his primary responsibilities whem he hired GW as his first HC, Record is the ultimate indicator and his first choice of GW sucked and resulted in a lousy record. In my view he made this move because of the residue of bruised feelings he had from Cowher running him out of town in Pitts. His management of GW as an employee only made the bad decision of passing on John Fox and Marvin Lewis (who were both available at the time and both did better producing records with their hires than GW with the Bills (particularly Fox)m he seemed to allow GW to fail as long as GW got the blame and he escaped it. Most of the other indictments on TD that posters put up (he is a lousy drafter, he is lousy at signing FAsm he doesn't hang onto to young players we should keep) are not supported by the facts. GW blew his first HC hire for the Bills badly and that I think is why the record is bad, He appears to be on a far better track with MM.

This is a great thread which I'm just catching up with amidst some business travel. From my review, I think your judgment of Henry is probably similar to a lot of teams in the league, but by definition differs from that of a team that has decided to make a trade for Henry (AZ has made firm offers which have been made public and even confirmed by Green) that if the Bills had accepted then, Henry would now be a Cardinal and they would ink him in as a contributor to their line-up and might decide to sell him to their fans as the next Emmit Smith. Your theorizing needs to take into accountthat AZ simply disagrees with your assessment and that as many as 4-5 other teams have expressed interest (though some of them may have done this to merely spread misinformation around the NFL) if you want it to be accurate. Is Green simply folling the NFL and us with AZ's interest and simply walk away having fooled us completely? Possible, but really doubtful as such a move can probably be justified by AZ if the walaway is couched in the context of "buyer beware" and suddenly AZ got an offer that seems demonstrably to be much better than the final "real" offer from the Bills. However, to do this means the NFL will be reluctant to put themselves in a position of partnership with Green for fear they would end up getting used like the Bills, players in the future would question public endorsements of their skills made by Green after he praised and then walked away from Henry, and Green abd the Cards have simply wasted a bucnch of time and effort on thos potential deal to simply walk away unless they get a much better offer or really have to walk away. All signs simply point to AZ and Green disagreeing in a big way with your assessment of Henry. The interesting question about TD is actually what is his plan B if AZ were to get a better offer and simply walk away. Is there some contingent deal with Tampa Bay or Miami that he has talked with them in whatever back channel way that is getting him to hold off on makinga deal? I don't know. The TD's plan B may simply be one to say "Oh well" if AZ walks away after he tries to squeeze a swap of picks out of them, and try to make peace with Henry to be a back-up to WM this year. It looks tough to manage, but I think Henry would have few rational choices but to try to make big bucks by being the best back-up to WM he could be. TH could do something stupid and counter to his own interests like punch the clock and not try very hard for the Bills this year so he earns his FA statius in the off-season, but such a game would leave such a bad judgment about TH around the league his contract value would truly plummet. As stupid as folks might judge him to be he does not show signs of being Wickey Williams yet. In general, I think the big hold-up to a deal is that AZ has actually boxed themselves into a corner with the moves they have made signing both a starter and back-up LT so it is clear they are going to have to cut Shelton if they do not make a deal. I think TD is waiting because it is actually AZ which is in fear that no deal will happen as TD might get a better offer for TH, and they will simply have to cut Shelton as a cap casualty in June and get nothing. The big "relative" thing which strikes me as a true as best as I can tell and you seem to discount is that both teams want to make a deal, but there is more of a possibility that the proven wily and operatig TD has something unknown on the backburner (it doesn't matter whether you or I think the Bledsoe, tagging/trading Price, drafting WM, or trading the pick/drafting Losman deals were good, what matters is that TD has a definite practice of draft surprises). AZ has already blinked in that Green has publicly praised Henry and publicly backed off of asking for a draft pick. They are running scared and really seem to want to not get nothing for Shelton and TD seems to be twisting the knife for all he can get.

I also doubt that the Bills view Shelton's primary value as part of some weird three-rail billiard shot to manage MW as an employee. The Bills braintrust succeded last year in squeezing adequate (finally he began to act like a professional to his teammates and Bills fans) and finaly pretty good performance out of MW with a nice combination of carrots (he was awarded a gameball at one point after a sack-free game) and sticks (JMac adjusted his attittude with a threat which both MW and ICE fell for that MW might be moved to LG (as little football sense as this move seemed to make). Why do something like trade for a back-up when you have successfully managed MW using more direct means? As best as I can tell, the Shelton move makes sense (as long as the docs judge him healed) because: 1. Shelton by most accounts does excel as a run blocker and has used his long arms to have a history of overwhelming opponents if he can get them locked up. 2. However, Shelton has not demonstrated the athletic ability to operate well in space and can be had on the outside by a speed rusher. There strengths and weaknesses seem to play well into the Bills strategic plans for an offensive style and also match well with JPs past skillset he has shown. If the Bills run the ball and then run a second time, this seems to play to Shelton's strengths. JJ was a good all around player, but there were always questions regarding whether he would play as he has never started all 16 games in his pro career and in fact adds to that problem by have a demonstrated history of getting knocked out of games by a variety of injuries from a concussion to shoulder issues which may earn him the lable of being injury prone if these nicks surface in SF. JJ was also a good all-around player but never has been a blocking threat in the run game that merited special attention. Shelton has been a great run blocker by some accounts in the past and if his ankle has healed enough to allow him to provide that benefit for WM then look out. The downside of Shelton having trouble on an island or when a DE does a double move on him is a worry (particularly when facing the likes of Jason Taylor or John Abraham 4 times a year. However, this is where the mobility of JP comes in and his demonstrated history of being an effective QB even while running for his life at Tulane. Shelton may get beat some, but if he does then his job is to either tackle the DE who beat him and we will take the penalty rather than see our QB tatooed by a blind hit. or more likely Shelton will need to curse and yet to warn JP he screwed up and JP has demonstrated the mobility to either take or avoid the hit. I see Shelton fitting into our scheme and skillsets nicely at LT even though he is clearly far from perfect. However at a $3 million cap hit he is not being paid to perform at Boselli levels. If his $3 million hit (the going rate for starting LTs is at least $5+ million) allows us to pay for great performances from Villarial, good performances from Teague and Anderson and great oerfirnaces (we need a lot more from him) from Nikw Williams at their cap hits we will have a quality performing OL.

That would be fine with me. Some folks seem to view trading next year's pick as robbing Peter to pay Paul, but I think our experience has been that trading a non-existent (right now) resource for a current benefit is an extremely good deal for us. TD seems to look at the draft with time as a key but ironically malleable factor which has paid some great benefits for us: To date: 1. 2002- TD trades the 2003 first which provided zero benefit for the 2002 Bills for Bledsoe. Bledsoe ended up stinking up the joint and TD made a big mistake (in my view) by extending his contract to cover 2004 instead of cutting him after a horris 2003 season. However, this deal provided substantial tangible benefits to the team which to deny them is to simply deny reality as: A. The 2002 on-field Bledsoe performance as part of a 8-8 team was a huge upgrade over the 2001 RJ/AVP performance and the 2001 team. B. The welcome party for Bledsoe at the Ralph was an indicator of far more excitment among the fanbase that a 3-13 team would produce (and ironically than a 6-10 team under Bledsoe the next year deserved. C. Again looking on-field Bledsoe's 2002 performance merited his being named a Pro Bowl reserve (if you disagree who do you say played well enough in 2002 to merit it more). D. It was NE that for the 2002 season got raped in this deal as their first 2 SB wins were bookends for a 2002 which saw them entirely miss the playoffs and the acceleration of the Bledsoe cap hit was almost certainly a major factor in this failure. Keeping brady over Bledsoe was by far the correct move for NE to make, but they paid the price of a 2002 season of failure for making the right move in the long term. Certaunly an examination of the 2002 impacts of trading the 2003 1st round resource was a huge benefit to the Bills that year for a cost that meant nothing to the 2002 team. 2. 2003- This is the point where Paul was supposed to come back to haunt the Bills for getting the benefit for Peter of a replacement vet QB for RJ. However, TD was able to turn the nothing of having no first round pick into something by tagging Price who we had no right under the normal rules to compensation for. By tagging and trading PP after Arthur Blank virtually guaranteed us compensation by promising his fans (and more importantly Michael Vick) that he would bet Peerless, TD was bold enough to tag this player and had enough of working relationship with PP that he got him to say the right things ad mostly to strategically shut up when he made the deal for him. TD demonstrated that he truly mastered the time element of the draft and player development by turning this pick into WM, whom he was able to get not only at a far lower draft slot than the talent he showed and seems to have recovered before his injury, but signed him to an incredibly affordable and managed bi-seacted bonus contract he never would have gotten for this talented a player in a straight draft. Add to this that TD did an excellent job reading the market and still got the player we needed in Kelsay whom few would have blanched if he had chosen instead of WM with the #1 and his demonstrated mastery of this draft was virtually complete. 2004- TD not only made a great pick in the standard draft choosing Evans, but once again he traded next year's pick for Losman right then. This has turned out so far to have been the right thing to do because: A. This appears to be a weak QB class and Losman's final season at Tulane places him above the other QBs who decided to graduate this year in the minds of many pundits. B. Add to that JP was an unfinished product who benefitted from his year in training such that the Bills now feel comfortable giving him a chance to start. C. TD got JP for a #21 contract when he probably would have gotten a better slot if he had waited or a better slot that the Bills would have had to give up significant talent to trade up to the1st or 2nd choice to draft a QB of the future this year. So I for one would love to see TD trade our 2006 1st round choice for a resource that brings benefit to the 2005 Bills.

The Shelton deal is a wildcard but since it sounds like we can pull the trigger if we choose, it looks like the realm of possibility on the OL is as follows: Possibles (in little particular order as many of these possibilities are remote ones) LT- Teague, Shelton, Gandy, Williams, Peters, Smith (back-up replacement for JJ in 1 game), Pruce LG- Anderson, Gandy, Tucker, Smith, Sobieski, Bannan, Esposito C- Teague, Tucker RG- Villarial, Anderson, Sobieski, Esposito RT- Williams, McFarland, Gandy, Peters I think the equation is something like from these 15 players we need to find 5 credible startes at each position. We need to find 3 or 4 players who provide credible back-ups at each position and we will have 1 or 2 developmental players who likely will be on the PS. Looking at these players it seems to me quite possible to do even without Shelton and easily done if the docs say he can still play at the same level or better than he played before. The thinnest position on this list of possibles actually strikes me as the center position (particularly if the best move to fill the LT gap is to movr Teague), but this draft is identified by various pundits as one of the deeper draft at C in quite a while and either Spencer or Baas may be available for choosing with out first pick. I see big OL issues for us as JMac will be called upon to mix and match, but these issues do not seem like a problem to me as it appears we will have several options for JMac to shop among and to demand of the players that if they want an OL job they better step up and perform. As I have said for quite awhile even amidst the predictions we were doomed on the OL and the moaning and groaning about its state, if we have a problem on the OL its going to be who do we cut as their is flexibility and depth of several development players rather than having to stretch to find 5 starter level players. There are NOT 5 Kent Hulls out there for this OL, but it strikes me there are 5 Ruben Brown level players out there (good player but overrated as a oerennial Pro Bowl player) for us to develop a unit.

I voted other as a draft pick is virtually worthless to me this year (it may work out and even if it does the player may take 1-3 years before he can contribute. Draft picks are not worthless as good players need to come from somewhere, but as I think we can make the playoffs this year proven vets are far more worthwhile choices in my book). Teams have had better luck with players such as highly drafted Cs starting immediately in the past few years, but the draft is a crapshoot that leaves me feeling better about a proven player for this year. The wildcard in all of this is that I do not have the medical reports so while Shelton looks like a great pick-up for Henry if he is healthy, that remains the outstanding question for me.

Allen Wilson, the Buff News Bills beat reporter does an extra bit of work (actually he gets paid twice for writing up the same reporting work he is doing for the Buffalo news) for Sporting News and posted the following which can be found on the TBD page. COMEBACK STORY: The Bills are keeping an eye on TE Mark Campbell's recovery from reconstructive knee surgery that sidelined him for the last four games in 2004. He is several weeks into his rehabilitation, which is progressing so well the team believes he might be healthy enough to play early in training camp. The Bills are counting on Campbell's return because he is expected to be a key part of the offense. He is a solid run blocker with the size (6-6, 255), strength and leverage to hold his own at the line of scrimmage. He's also a good receiver who runs good routes, has strong hands and a knack for finding soft spots in the secondary. If healthy, he'll be a solid receiving option for young QB J.P. Losman. I hope this is true (right now the Bills are in the process of coming as close to the line as they can to having their future potential trade partners draw false conclusions about out draft needs, I don't think the Bills want to flat-out lie to potential future trade partners and get the rep of a bad team to deal with. However, I think teams are happy to give some disinformation to the press and if other teams draw false conclusions then so be it. I am pleased to hear about a speedy Campbell recovery as it may well allow us to use our draft picks and also the Henry trade bait for building the OL rather than filling a TE need. I had actually assumed that only 1 of the two injured Bills TE should be counted upon as being contributors if we got lucky (this assumption was based purely on an alleged law of averages rather than any inside info on the injuries tp the TEs. I had actually assumed that if one of them healed faster it would probably be the younger Euhus who seemed to have the less severe of the injuries anyway. Though I do not think Campbell is the real deal at TE who will make us forget about Ben Coates, I do think he has shown flashes of good play as a recceiver and is a stable blocking presence who greatly increases our options if in fact he is healthy.

I have twin expectations for Shelton: 1. As an individual player I expect him to have some strengths and some weaknesses as a player (hows that for taking a firm stand it sounds like Mark Gaughan or Peter King) but what this actually means is that I expect his strengths to be in the run game when he attacks a specifcic direction and is successful when he gets his long mitts on a player. From what I hear I expect his weaknesses to show on speed rushers and when he gets out in space with an athletic player who can put a double move or fake on him. 2. In addition though he has exploitable weaknesses as a player, I expect JMac and Clements to run the offense in a manner that minimizes Shelton's weaknesses and plays to his strengths and the Bills O will improve its performance because the whole with Shelton will be stronger than the whole with Jennings. Shelton seems to have a clear set of weaknesses in his game with troubles in space, but the Bills seem to have two things going for them which will minimize this problem: 1. We plan to run the ball and then run it again as a strategy and if we are taking this initiative it will play to the Shelton strength. 2. We will need to pass some in order to be successful. However, we will employ the pass and play to Shelton's weaknesses unfortunately from time to time. However, when we do, JP has some clear running talent and a career in college where he excelled in gfree-lancing and running for his life. If/when Shelton gets beat by a Jason Taylor type out wide, he will need to decide whether JP is aware of the problem and simply curse and yell and plan on JP getting out of the way or if he thinks JP is busy or unawares tackle Taylor and take the penalty. I think Shelton is a likely upgrade over JJ unless Shelton is suffering from the same injury episodes that plagued JJ. I will probably ask in a separate poll whether folks considered JJ injury prone or not, butquite frankly I did because he never has started all 16 games in the 4 years of his career and in addition to the 1 or 2 (or 4 in his worst year) starts he missed due to injury there were 2 or more games last year he could not finish due to a variety of injuries like concussions or a bum shoulder. I expect Shelton to be just an OK player with some notable strengths and weaknesses, but I expect the Bills as an O to perform better because our O style will be set-up to maximize his strengths and JP should have the skills which minimize his weaknesses.

If the Best Player Available Turns out to be Willis McGahee I have no problem whatsoever with Tom being Teflon or whatever and picking him. The concept that Donahoes is a lousy draft leader simply is not supported by any even semi-authoritative collection of the data that I have seen presented. Certainly every fan and poster is entitled to their own fact-free opinions. but folks seem to post the mantra that TD has done a horrible job at drafting during his Bills career with little to support this assertion beyond citing episodic examples of failed players when this is no real indictment of his overall skill since you can come up with a list of failed players for every single GM. TD makes the claim (which I also have not seen any proof to substantiate this) that 50% of even 1st round choices actually do not work out as good choices. I would not expect the record of success of 1st round choices to be that bad (50/50) but I would not be shocked if it was this bad and would be surprised if a full quarter of even the best choices didn't turn out to be huge disappointments. I don't think that thos who lable TD as a failure as a draft leader can actually support this claim with more than their opinions and a few anecdotes. This being said, I do not think TD is a god, in fact I think his first 4 years as the Bills GM are a failure. This is shown in the Bills losing record during his tenure. Hwever, the reason for this record of failure strikes me as because TD screwed up badly with his first HC hire choosing the not-ready-for-HC defensive guru HW who simply was not a well-rounded enough leader to run a good O and mold his D to fit the players he could get rather than demand they pursue a system which is good but the Bills players at the time were not good enough to play. TD's major failing with GW in my mind was not that the was not good at player evaluation. but that he was passive-aggressive with GW and not pushy enough at forcing his team to do what the wanted. If TD had been pushier maybe we would have gotten GW to hire a staff with assistants experienced enough to make for his lackings. GW seemed to fear having anyone around with more experience than him or with the offensive chops to challenge him thus he ended up hiring a bunch of of low experience guys like Sheppard, and Vinky who simply could not do the job. The good news for Bills fans is that the mistake of hiring a GW and allowing GW to hire his own man as a replacement for Sheppard like Kevin Killdrive has ended. MM brought his first team to a still inadequate level since we missed the playoffs, but putting up a winning record and improving this team from 6-10 to 9-7 while still not there yet was a real improvement and clearly is going in the right direction. If someone wants to do a real job of indicting TDs draft record, rather than ignoring his picks of Clements, McGahee. McGee. Evans, instead they make the claim that failed picks like Spoon or Pucillo, or troubled picks like Williams or picks on their way out like Reed define TD. TDs work is not totally defined by a bias siting of only his good picks like Clements or bad picks like Reed. The question is looking at the whole and comparing whether his performance is better than, worse than or the same as the rest of the league during the same period. Overall, my sense is that TD is pretty good as a drafter. The episodes of bad choices like Reed has turned out to be are easily offset by the success of good choices like Clements who made the Pro Bowl. Overall, any judgment of TD actually is still too early to telll as it really can take a good 3 or 4 years to be able to make a real assessment of the quality of a draft class. The Eric Moulds case is a clear example where if you assessed the draft work on his class a full two years after they were picked he was a total bust, but today he still is the best athlete on the Bills roster and arguably the best player (though I think he will be surpassed this year). The WM pick was so huge and he is only 2 years past getting picked and after only a year of play it is too early to declare his career a success. If he has another year like last year, TD will clealy go down as a master drafter almost on this pick alone. In assessing TD as a drafter though it is still early to write the whole story for him as a Bills picker, i think the trendlines are clear and the trndlines are good. In addition to having his share of winners, I think it is also notable that: 1. He has shown himself to be a real master at reading the market- From his first draft moves of trading down for needed extra picks in a rebuilding year and still getting the player we needed in Clements and the first CB taken at a lower salaried cap slot was great, two years later he not only made the great pick of WM but read the market that we could still get Kelsay with our second pick, to his latest manuver of trading the 2005 1st pick for a pick of Losman who clearly we have identified as our QB of the future and who by Mort and other judgments would have been the 1st QB taken this year if he had his draft year last season is simply fantastic. These are but 3 episodes but even in his worst draft class in 2002 he again read the market in taking a WR to the surorise of all who despite the flsh in the pan Reed showing allowed us to comfortably tag and trade PP for a pick who became WM. Even when one sites the episodes of market understanding and manipulation it is an every year occurence for TD. 2, He has clearly demonstrated the benefits of trading away a #1- What TD has made a practice of that I'm surprised is not imitated more is trading away a future #1 for upfront benefit now. Bledsoe can clearly be faulted for sucking badly in 2003, but with this truth should also come the truth that he deserved his Pro Bowl nod with his on the field performance in 2002, was clearly an upgrade over the performance of RJ the year before, and was a part of Bills fans restored excitment after a 3-13 season. Likewise the trade of the 2095 pick for Losman was simply fanmtastic on a lot of levels, It will be a shame if it doesn't work because JP gets hurt or turns idiot because the set-up is so good. If TD traded our 1st evey year in exchange for help this year I would be a happy camper. 3. Where one can find fault with the performance of picks there is a larger story which should not be ignored if one is going to do a full assessment- A. Even the TD flops were good initial choices at the time based on their early performance. Namely Drew deserved to be cut a year earlier than he was cut, but the move paid off handsomely his first year and though the ultimate result can and should be faulted it was a good idea whose final execution did not match the output shown in the first year which showed why TD thought it was reasonable. B. The same is true of Reed who demonstrated that TD had a good idea when he picked him that fell apart ultimately. C. The same is true of MW who was a developing stud his first two years and a key blocker for some good yardage by Henry but who went south his third year. In this case lets hope he is back. However, in the big picture even though the end results for these three is something TD can be faulted for, he should not be accused of trying something totally irrational with these choices since they did work quite well initially. Overall, I think the TD draft record is a good one. I think that some posters cast aspirtions when their views simply fdo not match the facts. For example, one would believe that TD driven by an insane desire to stab Pittsburgh in the back reached for Ryabn Denny who has been such a disappointing non-contributor TD was forced to go back to DE and pick Kelsay. Convenient story except it isn't true. 1. Was Denny a contributor as a player for the Bills worthy of traing up? I say YES! This is shown by the objective fact that this team was able to go with 3 DEs on the depth chart last year. If Denny was so bad why wasn't he beaten out for a job and why did his prescemce even allow us to go with no back-up for him as he backe-up two positions? If he was so bad how did our D become such a monster performer in this league with him playing such an essential role in this run-blitz scheme? 2. Did the Bills draft Kelsay because Denney was such a failure? I say No! Denney was clearly not the Bruce Smith we were used to at LDE (but then who is). Denney clearly disappointed as a rookie as he apparently did not hold and apply his tall body in the right way to maintain leverage against the most raw pro blocker. Denney could not even gain activation the first 3/4 of his rookie season on a team desperately in need of OL help he was so unprepared to play. However, the thing to remember here is that 1. he improved enough as a player he was able to take a starting role his second year, and 2. even if he had been a stud as a youngster, the Bills likely would have drafted a DL player high in the Kelsay draft anyway if not simply picked Kelssy even if Genney were a stud. Remember one of the key pieces of GW failure was that he did not use a D scheme which fit his players at all. He switched the team to his favore 4-4set from a 3-4 at exactly the same moment we were losing Hansen to retirement, Wiley to FA, Big Ted as a cao casualty and even on the heels of having lost Bruce as a cap casualty. We responded to this by intensifying our need for DL help by adopting a GW systen which thrived from having Jevon Kearse in place. Even if Denney had been a stud and certainly with him "merely" being good enough to start on a highly ranked D we needed to draft LDE help bigtime. As it was. Denney was good enough that TD felt comforrtable in spending our #1 on WM and risking getting Kelsay with our second pick. The assessment that Denney is somehow a bust is not good football thinking. he is not a football god but Denney is a good choice who has paid off for the Bills and is not a bust at all. It is fact-free views such as this one that underlie the false claim that TD is a bad draft leader. In my view an assessment of his record shows him to be a good draft leader and depending upon how things playout with WM. Evans and Losman may go down as one the best there has been. The only kegit claim against his draft I have seen worthy of consideration is the fact that few of his seond day picks have amounted to the Andre Reed Phil Hansen level were are used to (McGee us the outstanding exception). However, as has been pointed out I have yet to seen a presentation of facts that indicates that the norm in the league among TDs competitors is to produce Pro Bowl players from the second day of the draft either, so perhaps even this failing is fairly par for the course amongst GMs.

The key for Bills fans in this article is the TD quote: "The offensive line might be the position where coaching is more of a significant factor than any position," Bills general manager Tom Donahoe says. "I think you need a premium offensive line coach, the guy who can take down-the-line guys and free agents and develop them into pretty good pros." Then what the heck was he thinking allowing GW to hire his buddy Vinklarek as OL coach when Vinky had zero experience as an OL line coach and then to upgrade the position when Vinky was pushed aside by hiring Pat Ruel who had all of 1 year OL coach experience with Detroit. The main reason I think the focus on Bledsoe was overblown was because the O problems really owed much to the decrepit job with building an OL within a OK to start for very predictable after half a season OL approach under Killdrive. Bledsoe certainly was inadequate to be much more than a productive #2 for a team (a view TD finally tuned into when he gave him a choice to take a #2 salary or go this off-season after the mistake of resigning him after the 2003 debacle season) but the focus on him as the cause of the problems (rather than simply the facilitator of them by a to-pass happy team) simply igniored the offensive trenches where the lead Bill problem lay.

I must admit that I am a need pick kind of guy which fits my general approach that the future is now. However, real world incidents from TD have beaten it into my silly little head that though I want the Bills to win and win now, that it really is a different drummer that drives TD's decisions and that he really is motivated by a bais on his part to pick the best player available to him on the board at the time, even if this selection might seem (initially at least since I am prone to take a second look and then understand when TD does something that strikes me as weird) odd. This is not to say that TD ignores need at all, as clearly his sense of the best player available was heavily influenced by the Bills needs, but even when this was the case he seems to show some heav analysis and action to get this player with the latest draft pick possible and use this opportunity to trade down for additional picks and to sign the player at a lower slot. For example: 2001- Need pick by TD of Clements, but he was able to trade down and get additional picks which were sorely needed by us in a rebuilding year and still get Clements who was the first CB picked at a lower slot than if we had been a slave to need and taken him when out pick rolled around. 2002- MW was also a need pick as folks are still complaining we never invest at OL despite us spending a #4 on MW. However, the selection of Reed with our second pick wasa clear case of us taking the best player available when waits went up from the masses that this choice was idiotic because given Moulds/Price we clearly had no immediate WR need. Yet, TD's farsightedness was proven correct by: 1. He was able to translate the Reed pick and a very good first year performance by Reed at #3 WR into allowing him to tag and trade PP for a pick who eventually became WM. 2. He was able to satisfy our need for a DL player by trading up to steal Denny (from Pitts who was on the phone with him which I'm sure was much to TD's glee). In the end, unless the to me unlikely event of a Reed recovery happens the pick will be a failed one of Reed, but given the first year success and the brilliant acquisition of WM, this was a great BPA move which put need (which he took care of with the Denny move) on a second tier. 2003- The pick of WM was the ultimate in BPA picks and given his first year productivity last year, this move is paying off big time and will go down in draft history as one of the best picks ever if WM stays on his current development track. TD emphasized how he works to satisfy team position need as a second priority to BPA by masterfully reading the market that he could still get Kelsay (few would have blanched if he had taken Kelsay with our first round pick) because teams that wanted a DL player had already taken one in the run of DL picks. 2004- The Evans pick was more of a need pick, though he player well enough as a rookie that it can credibly be argued that he was BPA when he was chosen. However, once again the real work experience was that TD easily traded the 2005 first round pick for a late 1st round choice last year which he used on JP who filled no need whatsoever for the Bills last year, but instead profitted from the time because he was the one who needed work if he was to become our QB of the future. Thus, as far as it gord, I agree with all of those who desperately want to see a Bills OL pick with our first choice this year. This choice even looks logical in terms of Spencer who may well be around when our first pick comes up or Baas if we are able to make the exchange with AZ. However, our first pick comes late enough that it seems like almost a certainty that someone will surprisingly drop down and even though we may have a lock in front of a draftee at a particular position, i do not put it past TD and the Bills at all to throw need out the window and to take a player who they deem BPA with our first choice.

While most of us would love to see MW become JMac's adopted son and follow him around sucking up nuggets of knowledge and being put through impromptu OL workouts with him while their waiting in in line for movie tickets (PG movies at worst of course) this expectation is a little bit much. Right now the Bills have begun voluntary in-house workout sessions at the Ralph. While the attendance of folks like JP at these workouts in the snows of Buffalo rather than have him hanging out on the beach at home in Venice, CA with all the homecooking from Mom and all the girlfriends he can eat is a great thing. It does jump the gun a little bit to conclude that the non-attendance at these sessions by a player is a dead certain sign of disinterest on his part of that we are doomed. Many players show up (and we appreciate it when they do), but many players also do not attend and they do perfectly fine, if they are using this time on their own to be a professional and to be ready to perform when they do show up. Nevertheless, there is another set of "voluntary" organized work which beings after the draft and it was these sessions that MW was "excused" (it's voluntary according to the contract so you technically do not need an excuse) because he had talkied to the coaches ahead of time and had a legitimate reason (a death in his family) not to attend. As best as I can tell the appropriate condolences were given, kind words were spoken and MW told the coaches he would workout on his own and catch up with the other players in terms of the missed co-ordination improvement that comes with these "voluntary" organized practices. If MW were to miss the organized "voluntary" practices right after the draft then I think his teammates and the region would be totally right in getting pissed at him. While a player can be just as diligent on his own and workout and lift weights on his own the same amount that he does in the Bills workout sessions, he will actually miss some important work and opportunites that one cannot replicate on your own if he misses minicamp. Last year, MW committed the sin of not only missing a first valuable opportunity wor workout with Villarial and other new arrivals by missing the camp, but he made it worse by not even being diligent on his own and when he finally reported to the mandatory camp he was out of shape and not ready to go. JMac and his teammates adjusted the boys attitude a bit and unfortunately in his rush to get back into shape he hurt himself and thus cost himself even more practice and chemistry building time with his linemates. The good news (and actually real world testimony of how good an athlete MW really is), he did finally get his act together and become recognized by his peers as one of the best performing linemen on the Bills (he was awarded a gameball for one performance). The sad episode last year definitely has MW on the watch list. However, it seems a bot ooutlandish to conclude that he is a bust based simply on his not coming to Buffalo to formaslly participate in organized workouts. If he does not show up for the immediate post draft voluntary workouts then legitimately wail away, but it is too early to make any rationale declarations right now.

Doubtful as more than half the line would be learning new positions. There is reason to believe that any of these three would master their new role with only a few mistakes over the course of the season (and in an outlandishly positive world, one would look back and have played flawlessly) but there is not likely to be any way that all three would master the new positions. To count to a plan which commits to all 3 suceeding like we want would likely doom us to one ending up being a failure and 2 of them suffering at least one critical mistake over the year. It likely would be a small jump for some (MW has played tackle though on the other side) and a big jump for others (Bannan has never been a starter on O much less at G) but pulling off all of these tasks at the same time seems unlikely.

Let them eat cake.

I think this trade was a win/win (as trades should be for both sides to make the deal). Plusses for the 'Boys: 1. Gained a 04 2nd rounder- This became Jones (800+ yards in 8 games and 7TDs) with a draft value at this position on the chart at 470 points. 2. Gained a 04 5th rounder- This became Sean Ryan (no passes caught atTE last year and appeared in a relative handful of games and is in development) with a draft value of 34 points on the chart- 3. Gained a 05 1st rounder- Has a value of 850 points on the chart as the Bills 04 finish put the pick at #20. Plusses for the Bills: 1. Gained an '04 1st rounder- This became JP Losman (4 games with a QB rating of 39.2 which does not reflect that all of these appearances were in not record important mop-up times and his development saw a steady improvement from being overwhelmed when thrown into the NE game, being nonplussed leading to a delay of game penalty but allowing him to hand-off several times for a TD by WM. and him still lacking total control having to call a TO to avoid a penalty but leading the Bills to a TD with a couple of passes and a 3rd down conversion with his running for a 1st down on his way to a score. The #22 pick has an assigned value of 780 points. The big plus for the Bills is that the 06 QB class is generally judged as weak and while JP will get a shot at starting, it is doubtful that any QB acquired by the Bills in this draft would even be able to be more than a #3 QB in 05. The attempt will at least be made to have Losman ready to go this year as our QB of the future was acquired with the pick with a year to train and with a #22 slotted contract. In essence, the Bills got their QB of the future who will start this year at a cost of 850 points (the #20 pick traded to Dallas) with a kicker of trading 504 points to Dallas to move our pick from 05 to 04. I simply see no way that we could have acquired a QB we would visualize as starting this year in this year's draft. The move was effective for us. Even if we found a RoboQB in this year's draft (none are seen remotely as being that good) the likely cost of having to trade a player to move up from #20 (a position achieved regardless of the trade for Losman) would likely have been a cost much greater than trading a #2 and #5. Dallas will still need to work to achieve development of Ryan, pick a good one with #20 and to get a full season out of Jones. However, the latter seems quite doable and the other two are possible though not yet likely. The Bills will have to work to achieve development of Losman, but we reasonably feel off to a good start. Our prospects would be a lot bleaker if we had not made this trade as I suspect we would have needed to give up a lot more to get our QB of the future and a credible answer for this year.