Fake-Fat Sunny

All thesereasons are certainly OK, but for each one of them there is good reason to have a differing view of the outcome of the situation, view them as not applying orsimply judge them to be wrong: Otherwise its OK by me.

Add a commitment to dollar-cost-averaging in mutual funds as an investment strategy and now your're talking!

You must be a friend of Henry's or his agent because this is exactly what he wants. I hope TD does not cave and instead does what is best for the Bills which is to simply require Henry to fulfill his contract. What precedent is set by rewarding a player for throwing a hissy-fit?

It is odd as what you call the "dump Travis" contingent actually are advocating actions that would benefit Henry to no end (he desperately wants to be cut) and would involve TD caving completely and showing total weakness and operating against the Bills interests. Its fine with me to declare Henry totally unfit to be our starting RB. He isn't. Willis McGahee is. Is Henry a good enough RB to be my #2? I'd take having a former Pro Bowler as my back-up virtually any day. The biggest problem I have with the particulars of his game is that he stacked up 1300+ yards twice by pounding away with a yard a carry for 7 tries and got his big yards later in the game. I prefer my #2 RB to be more of a Kenny Davis who was a great change of pace to TT (though not nearly as good an RB as TT was because of TT's pass catching ability and blitz pick-up skill but that is not essential in a back-up anyway) but having more instant offense than Henry has shown. Still with the FA incentive to be productive and the knowledge that he need not pace himself, I am confident that Henry can fill the Kenny Davis role. In general, the "Dump Travis" crowd seems as motivated by star adoration and personality as they are by football (as a fan that his their right). I couldn't care less is Henry is too dumb to manage his money or is easily fooled by a teenage girl claiming to be of age as long as he plays some football. Folks complain about his pass catching and seem to ignore the fact in real-life that he caught over 40 balls in the season he was used that way. Folks complain about his blitz pick-up which suddenly became a big issue in 2004 after he solved his 2001 difficulties in this area in '02 and '03. Complaints about his funble issues also rear their head on occasion though this problem also was greatly improved statisitically by him. He ain't great, but our #2 RB does not have to be great and he has few (no) reasonable strategies for doing anything but sucking it up if it turns out he want him to be our #2 RB in 2005.

You are right, but the additional thing which also appears true is that when it comes to OL production the whole is far more than a simple summation of the individual parts. This example was shown clearly with JMac and his Jints team. We all know better than many the real limitations that Dusty Z had as a center and Glenn Parker had as a tackle. Yet, JMac got production which got this team to the SB out of this unit even though their were some pretty clear talent limitation (I loved the Duster, but I would not mistake him for Kent Hull anyday). Particularly with the MM commitment to run and then run some more, TC and MM working well together to really know how to run an O and the skills that the skill players bring at RB, QB, and WR, having bodies and having individual talents are two different things, but in terms of OL unit production this has a very good chance of being more than good enough here. I'd be just whistling in the dark here, but we have seen this work before a number of times and inparticular with JMac at the helm quite recently.

I'm not asking whether Henry has the character to be our #2 RB or not because it is quite clear that he is not the brightest bulb in the pack and that some folks are ceoncerned about him being an idiot (for me, I care little about the players' personalities as no athlete is a hero to me and as long as they playand aren't convicted felons I am quite happy to leave the personality stuff to People magazine). The question I ask is whether anyone sees any doable strategy for Henry other to suck it up an play as the #2 for WM if as it appears right now the Bills will be unable to trade him. I don't see that he has any reasonable choice but to honor his contract. If he throws a hissy-fit an sits out he will remain the Bills property and not become an FA and get the big contract he wants. If he simply comes in and accrues the time to get FA, but his half-assed about it to avoid injury, he will so reduce his value as an FA that he will not get the big contract he wants. Even worse, he will screw over his teammates and not watch WM's back which will further lower his ability to get a big contract. A walk-through year does his negotiating position even more harm as it will be his second unproductive year in a row. Theoretically yes, Henry could pull a Wickey Williams and head off to Katamandu. However, there is a huge difference between doing this with the 2 sizable contracts signed by Wickey and in the context of the Henry bankruptcy. The Bills are leaving Henry ample room to come back to the fold and I see no other options if he wants the big bucks (or unless TD caves and releases him) than for Henry to suck it up and play. The best scenario for Henry is looking like for him and the Bills to mouth the words of peace and for him to at least pretend to throw himself into being the best #2 RB he can be (verbal pretending is fine with me all i care about is how he does on the field). Henry sucked it u and shut up until the season was over and he will need to do that again so he can accomplish this goal. Even firther, if WM goes down with a nick (not impossible unforutnately) Henry would then have a big opportunity to really score a big contract by playing well. I'm not asking whether folks think Henry is an idiot. He is and who knows what impact idiocy will have on his actions. I am simply asking whether there is any workable option for him other than to play if he is after the big bucks. I don't think there is.

I'm not sure what the flat-out lie is. My understanding is that everyone agrees that clear offers were made (TD, Green, Fisher, whomever), but TDs says that the offers were not good enoguh as he is on record saying that he wants at least a 2nd rounder for Henry and he would not give him away. Are you saying that someone claims to have offered a #2 for Henry and TD turned it down? Certainly no deal got done, but I do not see anyone lieing about what was offered, just a dispute over how much Henry is worth. It appears to me that Henry's only option to get the big contract he wants out of FA is to suck-it up and make peace with the Bills and wait for his chance as a back-up. He is under contract and cannot get FA status by throwing a hissy-fit and sitting out. Theoretically, he could choose to be a cancer and simply walk through next year on the roster and avoid injury by not playing hard. However, to do this would so undercut his ability to score a big contract as it will give him a second consecutive hear of non-production and would involve him screwing his teammates that this option hurts him and any financial goals. I hope TD doesn't blink and release him even though some folks want him to be a weeny and do that.

In the old days before we all bought computers and use them as $2500 paper-weights, one used to be able to get a substance called Neat's Foot Oil which I used to break in the two basebal gloves I used. I have seen it in traditional hardware stores though these have long since been overhelmed by the Home Depots and Wal-Marts of the world so I no longer no if you can get it. I also got it at the old sporting goods store, but they to have been replaced by the chains like Dick's which can get cheaper prices but don't carry these useful items that a store only sells three or four times a year. Neat's Foot oil is a yellowish oil which I believe is derived from cattle hooves. It is used as an leather dressing and tanning substance and was quite helpful for me in breaking in gloves. I would apply the oil to the leather and rub it in to make it more pliable. I put two balls into the glove and then tied it down and let it sit for a few days with a bathrobe. This gave me enough of a start to play with it, but I truly broke it in by playing catch and games with it thousands of times. I never used an oven.

I, like most have not content with our OL situation, but I am quite satisfied that JMac and the braintrust have a ton of bodies to work with to attempt to forge a more than adequate OL that we want. The test will be whether all of these players are simply pro bodies or in fact whether they can come together as a unit that performs well. I am pretty hopeful (the satisfaction), but worried about how this will work (the lack of contentment). Overall, the final numbers will likely be 9 or 10 OL players whom we keep ownership of with 7 OL players active each week. an 8th player active on the roster and 1 or 2 players in development who probably are on the PS, Rather than choosing between 1 or 2 players on the margin. The Bills roster has these 15 OL players under contract: 66 Anderson, Bennie OL 6-5 345 28 4 Tennessee State 60 Esposito, Jasen G 6-4 305 23 1 Kutztown 69 Gandy, Mike OL 6-4 310 26 4 Notre Dame -- Geisinger, Justin OL 6-3 322 22 R Vanderbilt -- Gunmundsen, Geir OL U of Albany 79 McFarland, Dylan OT 6-5 290 24 R Montana 71 Peters, Jason OT 6-4 328 23 R Arkansas -- Preston, Duke OL 6-5 311 22 R Illinois 74 Pruce, David OT 6-8 328 26 1 Buffalo 72 Smith, Lawrence OT 6-3 295 25 1 Tennessee State 64 Sobieski, Ben G 6-5 315 25 1 Iowa 70 Teague, Trey C 6-5 300 30 7 Tennessee 65 Tucker, Ross G 6-4 316 26 4 Princeton 58 Villarrial, Chris G 6-3 318 31 9 Indiana(Pa) 78 Williams, Mike OT 6-6 360 25 3 Texas The current depth chart appears to be: RT: Williams RG: Villarial C: Teague LG: Anderson LT: Gandy BRT: McFarland BRG: Tucker BC: Tucker, Preston BLG: Tucker, Geisinger BLT: Smith This makes 10 off the top, but several of the remaining 5 will have some shot (interesting to non-existent of getting in there: Esposito: Hung on the team last year but a likely goner and camp fodder. Gundmundsen- I know nothing about him except that he impressed JMac enough to end up as a guest of his for Easter Sunday and then made the roster. Perhaps a better cadidate to marry JMac's daughter if he has one. Peters: Great contribution on ST last year probably gets him on the active roster and rumor has him being an LT candidate because of his phenomenal athleticism. Yet, if he is such an athlete, why take the ball out of his hand by not working him in at TE? He clearly is a big varuiable and if the Bills are committed to him making this team as a T then someone is a goner. Pruce: Probably a quality player as he played LT well with NFLE last year, but he seems like camp fodder to me. Sobieski: Well regarded talent got him drafted, kept on the PS, and then kept on the roster again, but at some point the dream will likely come to an end with him getting cut. Add to this, there are several off-roster options which means they likely will not happen but need to be considered before rejecting these ideas. Bannan- based on TD comments on TV Sunday he has been told he has a better shot at making the team as a DT so theG experiement appears to be done. LJ Shelton or some other cap casualty- The deal is dead but AZ likely has to let him go come June and he and other folks like Kyle Turley should probably not be brought in to throw off chemistry developed in minicamp, but this needs to be thought about. Marcus Price- Did a great job as a swing reserve tackle last year, but Bills and NFL seeming lack of interest indicates that reports of an injury may singal the end of his career. Pucillo- Not signed by anyone but probably a goner. At any rate, I am pretty comfortable though not satifisfied that JMac can make this work. The precence of WM and his outside ability and stiff arm meaning that defenders will need to hesistate before committing to the rush will help the protection. Further, the experience Losman has running for his life at Tulane should not be depended upon. but will hold the Bills in good stead as his mobility makes the likely mistakes from this OL workable. The wildcard I see is that JMac will need to get more out of Gandy than he has shown in Chicago or our offensive approach will have to work around this weakness if it occurs. Still I can see how this might work quite well.

Remember that if/when Henry comes back, his first crowd respomse opportunity as a Bill will likely be him coming into a game as the #2 for WM. There will certainly be the usual diverse crowd reactions as some Bills worshippers will greet him with cheers as he is a Bill and others will give him grief because like the rest of the players he will be an overpaid athlete. The biggest driver of course will be the game situation. The Bills will likekly be in mid drive and most will not notice the RB switch and those who do will be mostly focused on the team's down and distance rather than the personailities. If he comes in to replace a wounded WM out with a nick, the fan reaction will mostly be driven by concern for WM and wanting the Bills to rebound. In general, I think it will be a non-issue where reaction will quickly be determined by how TH does on his first few plays. If he gets a big gain or scores a TD likely all will be forgotten and forgiven.

One of the other oft repeated untruths that seems to be regarded as fact now is the concept that the Pats fleeced the Bills completely with the trade of our first for Bledsoe. One can see where this conventional wisdom comes from as the results over the past 4 years are simply that NE has three rings and the Bills have one year of a winning record, but this concept conveniently ignores several facts: 1. On the field the year after the trade, Buffalo did incredibly well because of this trade and NE stunk because of this trade. Specifically, Bledsoe made the Pro Bowl as a reserve based on his 2002 Bills performance and deserved this nod (if you disagree then simply state which QB deserved the second reserve honor more). On the field he set numerous Bills records, completed numerous receptions to Moulds/Price and before opponents caught up to a predictable Kevin Killdrive offense and Belicheck gave everyone a roadmap on how to defense Bledsoe and the Bills (a roadmap Killdrive never adjusted for) ran a Bills O that not only passed well but saw Henry slide into the Pro Bowl as a reserve rusher. Definitely BB was correct in logging up 2 wins facing Bledsoe whom he knew so well, but even with this result the Bills improved the W/L (the ultimat measure) from 3-13 to 8-8. On the other hand, the Bledsoe cap hit from Belicheck being forced to make the trade (BB correctly chose Brady over Bledsoe) resulted in NE being unable to replicate the cap casualty purchases which were a key to their 1st SB win and this team failed to even make the playoffs after an SB win (the fact they did win the SB once the Bledsoe cap hit was out of the way provides further indication that the cap acceleration of the dumb Bledsoe contract killed the Pats in 2002. If anyone got raped by this deal in 2002, it was the Pats big time. 2. Part of the GM job is running the team, but the other part is running the business and in addition to the immediate on field benefits of the trade for TD, the off field benefits to the Bills business of acquring Bledsoe were incredibly subsantial. This was a team coming off a 3-13 rebuilding year. By acquiring Bledsoe in the manner we did, TD brought incredible business benefits to the product he was responsible for in addition to the one year on the field benefits. From replacing the mistake of RJ and moving the Bills beyond the Flutie/RJ dispute to the welcome Drew ceremony at OBD to the excitement of the 2002 improvement of the team's record, TD simply managed a fantastic job of promoting the Bills product after a dismal year. The Bledsoe trade was part and parcel of continued and new updrades of the the Bills ticketing, pre-season camp arrangements and other business activities that the Bledsoe acquisition was central to supporting. Thosr two things being said, W/L on the field is the bottomline and the heady days of 2002 were immediately followed by a total production outage from Bledsoe in 2003. Nevertheless, a sensible assessment of this trade should find this one a wash at worst with 2002 very good and 2003 very bad. The true TD error was not in trading for Bledsoe in 2002, but in resigning him in 2004 after he had a goshawful season in 2003. One can credibly claim that by cutting him the Bills would have had added a long-term zero to this trade by walking away with nothing, but given the deficit in ability to sell the product the coming of Bledsoe helped reverse in 2002, even if the Bills has simply used him for 2 years and walked away with no cap liability by cutting him prior to 2004, the trade would have been a wash from my perspective. If one chooses to theorize about the broader view of the future in assessing the real world impact of this trade on the Bills, that is where one reasonably needs to take into account that the TD move to replace the Drew traded pick resulted in us getting AT's choice and resulted in us getting McGahee. Overall, I am really sorry as a Bills fan that TD extended the Bledsoe deal prior to the 2004 season. Bledsoe may go down in NFL history as having killed two seasons with acceleration of his cap hit. However, I as a Bills fan remain pretty happy with TD having made the trade. Replacing RJ with a former starter QB who led the Bills to extraordinary improvement in 2002 and setting off a chain of events that led to the acqusition of McGahee is fine by me. I wished we had walked away from Bledsoe after 2003, but hindsight is 20/20.

The Bills certainly should have cut Bledsoe after his horrendous 2003 season in my view, but it seems the height of revisionist history to claim that the Bills would have made the playoffs last year if they had done so. 1. The most direct method for the Bills to have gotten there would have been to beat Pittsburgh at home in the last game. Bledsoe clearly failed to win this game for the Bills, but to claim it is all on him and he was the only serious failing of the Bills in that game is to ignore: A. Lindell missing a chipshot FG he shoukld have hit which would have made it a different game with a full TD lead for the Bills. B. The D allowing a 3rd or 4th string RB to roll up over 100 yards and a 3rd string QB to lead them to a score. C. A forgiveable physical error in Clements punting a PR on the carpet. One can accurately blame Bledsoe for not being Joe Montana and overcoming these clear errors, but it would be silly to do so and silly to insist that JP is and must overcome similar unsolved problems in order to make this team a winner. 2. Bledsoe deserved to be cut after a disgusting 2003 season, but I don't see how one can fail to realize that his play and performance improved quite a bit from 2003 to 2004. The level of Bledsoe improvement was not enough to overcome the failings of the 2004 Bills (Some bizarre D failings in crunch time like against Jax, huge running game deficits in RB performance in the first 4 games, bad ref calls as the one against Oak, facing a better team twice against NE) but to translate this into the sole reason we failed to make the playoffs or again to deman of our first year starting QB that he overwhelm unsolved issues in these areas does not meet reality. Look, I am flat-out willing to say that Bledsoe's play improved a lot in 2004 over 2003 and this is true if only because the Bledsoe performance in leading a team which failed to score a TD for over 2 full games was so bad in 2003. Bledsoe's play was certainly inadequate last year but do you seriously say he did not improve over his horrible 2003 performance? To not recognize the simple facts means you do not recognize the facts about football. The bottomline is that by insisting switching QBs is the ONLY thing the Bills must do is to assert and expect that our first year QB is not going to have the normal growing pains and learning that almost all NFL players go through. I hope he will be a god among mean immediately upon taking the field also, but I do not demand or expect that.

I think this is not correct. 1. Teams have figured out that even when you manage the cap well, it still means that there will be difficult decisions where you have to cut players you would prefer not to cut who have something left. It is in mining these players where good pick-ups can be found. An example on the cirrent Bill's roster is Sam Adams, a good players whose cap hit and the presence of cheaper young players resulted in him being out there if he fit your need. 2. Its impossible for a team to manage the cap perfectly because they are not the only party making decisions about their cap performance. Not only does playing the cap game well result in the availability of these type of players but since it takes two to make a deal, a team can play the cap game well and because a player refuses to play a long a good player can become available. An example of this on the current Bills roster is Lawyer Milloy. Fespite BB miscalculating the Milloy situation badly no one can credibly charge him with being unable to manage the cap, but even he made a mistake and a good contributing player was out there. 3. The needs of teams are different and this allows a team to beneficially sign a player another team beneficially cut. One could argue that the Bills correctly cut Larry Centers because the availability of Sam Gash provided the Bills with a better option for running the smash mouth game (though Kevin Killdrive never employed him properly). However, Centers was picked up quickly by another team because he improved their roster by signing this high character guy who set a good tone as a self-motivated worjout warrior the youngsters needed to see. Not only can cap casualty cut/signings be mutually beneficial, but players get cut for non-football reasons when they still have something to offer another team on the field. Larry Centers could still catch the ball and ran better than ever in his final year as a Bill. However, he seemed to have been cut by the Bills and hit the market at least in part as TD sent a clear message to GW who said publicly that Centers would remain a Bill as long as he wanted that it was TD who made the contract decisions and within a week of the GW pronouncement Centers was gone. Likewise LJ Shelton. Maybe his ankle is the reason the Bills seemed to have passed, but clearly his bad relationship with Denny Green is part of his coming availability. it strikes me as flat out incorrect to claim that all NFL teams have solved the cap riddle. If anything, the Bills may not mine this route because with the loss of only 3 starters (1 of whom is definitiely replaced) we may not have an opening that can be filled by what likely will be some fairly interesting June 1st cuts.

I generally aggree but this is going to be way open to competition as UDFAs are signed, depending upon who comes available as cap casualties. and from exisiting roster competition. My guess is that either Peters is going to be such a phenomenal athlete they will be unable to take the ball out of his hands by making him a tackle and he makes this roster as a TE or he is not athlete he should be and will fail to make the roster. I expect that we will keep 10 OL players. This will be the 5 dtarters, 2 active back-ups each week and 1 in-sctive back-up. In addition to this there should be two developmental players who will either be on the PS or on the active roster. If you shift Peters on the above list to TE, this gives one more OL spot for a UDFA, new signing (a cap casualty like Shelton) or even a trade to make the team.

I think this may be a good draft for a contribution in 2006 but offers little possibility for a 2005 c0ntribution. However, the second part of no 2005 contribution was already determined when we traded our 2005 1st rounder for JP last year (a great move given that we needed a 2005 QB and there was none to be found in this draft) and that this draft looks so weak overall. The 5 choices for 2006 and beyond look interesting: Parrish- Incrediblty doubtful as a starting contributor initially, but if Josh Reed does not recover his rookie form (likely) and Aiken does not develop (easily possible) we will be looking for a slot receiver in 2006 and Parrish may be him. Everett- A reasonable flyer to take at TE as he joins another possible flyer in Peters and the seemingly rapid recovery of Euhus and/or Campbell makes this doable. Preston- Looks like a quality pick-up in a draft which was deep at C. He should show benefits in 2006 and we will reasonably push him toward the unlikely possibility that he will be ready this year. King- Sounds like a quality person who is a bit short to be counted upon to be a starting CB. His drafting heightens the utility of Clements continuing his development and us ovepaying him in a year the cap will balloon with the new TV contract if he continues his development from his Pro Bowl appearance this year to being one of the top corners in the league. This is nothing to be counted upon but is possible. Teams like the high0flying Rams and new Lions squad make having two lockdown CBs and a good nickel a need rather than an option. The prescense of Clements, McGee, Thomas, Greer, Vincent and Hill on the 2005 squad makes this outcome a reality already, If Hill develops into the Winfield clone he apparently is (good hitter and cover guy but a bit short( then maybe we can play it fast and lose with FA Clements. Most likely he will not develop to this level (he is a 4th rounder and not a 1st like AW) and we will have to overpay a Clements who continues to develop or look elsewhere if he blows a gasket. Geisinger- Interesting pick because the Bills have known about him and believed in him for years. A definite 2006 pick but most 6th rounders are future picks and particularly OL players. Bright boy (4.0) provides possibilities. Gates- Who knows. I see him as an ST guy if anything, but most likely a likely eventual cut.

I think that clearly the better course to go is to stick with the TD approach right now rather than commit to several more years of losing while rebuilding goes on if we made a change in direction. There is a small chance one might find a John Fox who can pull off with a lot of good work and luck the job he did in Carolina (though their horrendous start last year and missing the playoffs in a similar last game fashion as he Bills shows this road is no sure thing to glory), but far more likely one might end up with another well-repected guy incapable of building a sustainable winner (a Tom Couglin for example) or a quality guy who will never win the SB with cap drag his star puts on the team (Bill Polian for example). The bottomline for TD has to be the record and his record after 4 years as GM is one of a loser. However, there is a clear division in assessing his teams under GW and his team under HH. He seemed so bruised (understandably so actually for any human though not condonable for a professional football guy) by getting fired by a guy he hired in Cowher, that he hired GW as his HC cause he knew GW would not can him and if he tried to he could beat GW. TD got one mulligan for his bad hire of GW (and only got this because he has done a good job for Ralph's wallet with managing contracts, negotiations and propects for the rest of the business) but he needs to make it work with MM. Missing the playoffs last year was tough, but by producing a winning record he gets another run with my strong endorsement. The league is all about what have you done for me lately and a winning record after reversin from the GW debacle wins him another run with my full questioning support. Talk to me again after this season, but by far dancing with the one who brung us seems the thing to do rather than reversing course to an uncertain future after we improved from 6-10 to 9-7 and just missed the playoffs last year. Its a pain to sit home in December, but if we are gonna fire the new GM when he misses the playoffs as he is likely to do in 2006 then we would likely be commiting to the Arizona Cardinal plan.

The question for you however, is that lets say we replaced TD right now, how many years of rebuilding do you think the Bills would have to go through for the replacement for TD to make the playoffs? Since you put the TD number at 5 years, I assume you endorse him for 2005. if he is canned after this year, right off 2006 and probably 2007 as thye new guy reverses the TD way and puts his new way into place. If you endorse abandoning TD right now (even though he obviously will be in place this year(, it sounds like you are endorsing a plan where we win in 2008 even if things work well for new order.

One of the dumbest comment TD ever made was a statement that good enough kickers are a dime a diozen which he made in the context of Arians failing to be an adequate replacement for Christie, His words may be true to the extent he brought in Graham to replace Ariens, but let him go when he found a better kicker (Hollis) only to have Graham become a good kicker for CIN. Meanwhile, Hollis proved to be a good kicker for the Bills, but psychotic (or at least neurotic) like many kickers and TD could not get a deal done with him only to see Hollis fall to injury. He over-reached contractually on Lindell. Lindell is actually an improving kicker who may become adequate next season. However, he simply sucked his first season for us and improved (his KOs were great and his onsides were good last year) in '04. However, his miss of a chipshot against Pitts and some odd timing which saw him never hit a crucial FG over 50 yards (though he never missed one either as he oddly has never has been in a crticial position for the Bills in two years of play left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. The big deal though is the contract over-reach because unless the replacement kicker was a sure thing (Vinateri or Vanderjagt) cutting Lindell and looking elsewhere makes very little football sense, i think Nugent MAY have been a semi-reasonable choice for the Bills if he dropped to the 3rd or lower for just the right reasons, but it was always near impossible that cutting Lindell to get him was ever possible.

See my post on TSW for one cut on why I comfortable (but not satified yet) with the Bills LT situation. Its a basic question of whether from the 15 OL players on the roster (plus the 1 or two possibilities to be added to the world after the June cuts) can we find the the 5 players we need to start, 3 players we need to back-up and 2 players for development we need for our OL. I think we can.

1. Today isn't tomorrow or quite frankly isn't even the start of the season yet and there remain several opportunities and ways to get adequate and even pretty good production out of the LT position before it is too late. Am I satisfied with the LT position right now? No. Am I comfortable with it right now? Yes, because there are quite a few options for improving this situation and only those who most easily get their panties all up in a wad at a problem are freaking out even after a draft that produced little of immediate OL hope. 2. I think there is a fairly good chance for Trey Teague to work out as our LT if necessary. It is far from a certain thing that TT will be what we need (and he will never be what we want because we want everything even if we can't have it) at LT, but my sense is that while he was adequate for Denver (if he was inadequate he likely would have been benched) he did not merit a big contract in their view. However, I think he has improved since he got here due to having more experience and having more smarts as it takes to take on the center role. Injuries are always an issue, but he showed he can come back from the ACL tear he had in Denver and even came back to perform at a better level for the Bills after the injury which forced him out for a few games last year. Though TT being the player we want at LT is not sure thing, I'm actually more worried about whether we can have an adequate replacement for him at C than the uncertainty of whether he can handle the LT position. 3. The Shelton deal is dead, but the potential for us getting him for no compensation after June 1st is real. There are obviously questions about how much Shelton can do. However, (particularly after the docs made the correct call on WM) I am pretty confortable that the Bills will only get him if his ankle can stand up to the task. Shelton is far from perfect, but assuming he still has something left, the good parts of his game (the run game) are where we plan to go and the weaker part of his game (athleticism when left on an island against speed rushers) are just the thing that a mobile QB who ran for his life all through college like JP can compensate for, Even if the Bills will get the advantage of getting him for no compensation after his likely cap cut, I'm still tempted for the Bills to have made the trade for him to get him into minicamp and begin building chemistry. Yet, he is a vet and a late start whould not prove fatal and I still consider him a live option. 4. There are several other LT options even beyond the TT thought. Though I think they are all far less likely than the utility of moving TT, there are a fairly substantial number of potential LT options the Bills can try though I suspect there will be little need to do this. These include: A. Use of Gandy who has played LT before though it was for the lowly Bears. B. Dylan Mcfarland played a couple of games at RT last year and while not an LT may provide room for MW to flip sides if that were the way to go at LT. C. Jason Peters is talked about as a phenomenal athlete who commands a look at LT. My sense is that if he is such a penomenal athlete why take the ball out of his hands and he should stay at TE. Yet this wildcard is talked about so it is on the plate. D. David Pruce was the NFLE LT of the year with his play there. This earns him a look (proabably brief in my book) but only a look to see if he is one of those rarities who can translate NFLE performance to the US. E. Leonard Smith is shat upon by those who saw his LG play last year as inadequate. It was inadequate, but it seems foolish to me to declare him a horrible player as making the jump from the Ravens PS to starting for us was little short of phenomenal in terms of a jump. The fact that his failing actually was the run blocking part of G play and that his pass protection was actually judged to be good means maybe there is a place for him at T. he more logically makes it possible for MW to jump to LT rather than him taking on this task, but he is a possibility as far as the mix. F. Ross Tucker actually first came into this league as a tackle rather than a C. His role would also likely be dependent on MW showing enough to jump to LT and he fills in at RT but again he is part of the mix. G. MW is a question mark. His game however is now moving in the right direction. If JMac judges him ready to make the switch. I can see this and the bigissue becaome which of the several candidates for RT will work. ^. It starts with the players and ends with their quality of play, but the road to a producing OL goes through JMac. I think that one huge factor working for the Bills is that he has forgotten more about OL development than the not-ready-fopr-primetime Vinklarek and Ruel who manned this job for GW know about the position. The fact he took players whom we know the limitations of well like Glenn Parker and Dusty Ziegler and forged them into an OL with help capable of getting NYG to the SB spaks volumes. He has produced a couple of ther SB squads with the Bengals and we have given him lots of options to play with (15 OL players on the roster) to find the 7-10 guys he needs to produce on the OL for us. I am not satisfied with where we are now, but quite comfortable that all is under control.

I found this draft pretty frustrating though actually not disappointing because I did not really expect it to produce much help for the '05 Bills. The fact we traded away the '05 1st round choice for JP last year and it turned out to be a good thing we did as JP appears to have likely been the 1st QB taken in '05 if he had stayed in school meant that this draft was quite unlikely to produce a player who would contribute to this year's Bill's squad. I had held on to some hope that through trading the Henry resource that though the draft itself was unlikelu to produce much to fill the holes we must fill at LT, DT, QB and #2 RB we might get some '05 help on draft day. However, it appears that among the things essential to pulling this off was a trading partner and apparently one wasn't there. Hope can still spring eternal on the trade front because one can happen at any time and if it does before the next "voluntary" mini camp it will be great, but its frustrating because not yet. Additional fun begins now with UDFA and actually given the success we had last year with folks like Baker, Greer and Peters, their is actually more good hope for getting '05 help from UDFAs rather than the draft.

Why release him? That wouldn't even fix him out of spite or send a message as that is exactly what he would love to see happen.

I think that overall your general perspective and many of the specific position assignements and improvements in particular players are on track and I agree. The one area however, where I hope that you are right but really doubt that you will be in in seeing much of a contribution certainly early and not likely at all in 2005 to Parrish, Everett or any of the 2005 draftees to this team. In general, I think the experience that we had last year in terms of draftees contributing to the team was actually quite better than most, and actually should not be expected at all from the class of 2005 with its 2nd round talent start. If one looks back to last year, this was the pretty good contribution: Lee Evans - Normal slow start who became a huge contributor as a 04 starter J.P. Losman - No contribution as an 04 starter Anderson . No contribution as an 04 starter Tim Euhus - 5 games started in 04 after Camobel got dinged but season cut short Dylan McFarland - No contribution as an 04 starter Jonathan Smith - no contribution as an 04 starter but definite ST contributor. Evans was a spectacular case but that he is why he merited a 1st round pick. I'd be psyched if Parrish turned out to be as great but have little expectation he will do so and actually as unbelieving as I am no in Josh Reed turning it around and still feeling pretty you have shown me much yet about Aiken, I feel better about them as slot WR contibutors than Parrish. This does not mean I am writing Parrish off. I hope and expect that one day he will be a solid contributor for the Bills as a position starter and I look for him to make an immediate contribution as a punt returner who will challenge Clements and Smith, but doubt he will be a #3 WR starter. This is even more the case with the lower drafted Everett. It's nice to get a pass catcher at TE, but again I think our best hope for 05 is that Euhus or Campbell in fact will recover fully from their ACL tears and though one must always set an expectation of immediate impact from a 3rd rounder like Everett, we'e probably looking at 06 for a real contribution from him. Likewise with Preston, it would be great if he is such a stud center that he makes it easy for us to move Teague to LT, but while his record of achievement (one sack given up in two years) makes him a great choice, his record of where he needs work (not a "nasty" finisher and he is a mere rookie at the brainy position of C) makes it pretty dpubtful to me he will contribute much to the '05 team. Still surprises do happen and I hope they do this year. One need only look to the impressive contributions made by several UDFAs to this team last year to know that rookies can start in this league. However, these same facts and the individual make-ups of the players chosen make me expect this draft to be a good one for the 2006 Bills and pretty much a non-issue (unless you want to invest in the lie that Losman is a class of 05 guy) for this year's team.

It depends on what you mean. If you are looking for an expression of one's view of his absolute value as a player stated in terms of tomorrow's draft its somewhat of a potluck guess because of the large number of potential pro bowl quality RBs available tomorrow (at least 3) and how they compare with Hwnry as an RB who in reality once qualified for the Pro Bowl (sliding in due to injury). Based on the uncertainty inherent in the draft I think you reasonably have easily rank Hwnry as meriting a 1st round pick. If however, you are talking about the real world and not some staticfantasy leaguw judgment, there are a ton of variables in play here some of which cut against and some of which raise his value. Figure a start at 1st round levels and go from there: Downers- 1. Has had injury issues during each of the last three seasons (he is a youngster but this lowers his value a lot). 2. Went into an apparent funk last year after WM took his job. 3. If he throws a hissy fit if the Bills do not trade him he may be available if he is cut (unlikely because he has zero leverage to force a cut if he wants to earn a bif FA contract). 4. Not too bright as his poor management decisions forced him to delay his FA status for a year in exchange for upfront cnump change from the Bills. Uppers- 1. Two high quality rushing years of his four in the league. 2. Tough guy who showed he could play through pain his second year. 3. Under contract cheaply for a year so he is very cap effective for the production he has produced. 4. Not too bright so his new owners can potentially take advantage of him. There were several other whines mentioned about him but they seem fairly inconsequential to the unbiased observer: 1. Suffered drastic fumble problems his second year- however these numbers greatly improved his third year so this can be watched but not drive decisions. 2. Dropped some critical passes kast year- but so does eveyone in this league and he did rack up some very productive receiving numbers his second year when KG employed him as a pass threat in a potent offense so this issue is a red herring. 3. Blitz pick-up issues- like all rookies this was an issue when he first came up but not noted as a problem at all his second two years even blocking for the less than fleet Bledsoe. The issue was raised on TSW this year, but similar problems were also there for the rooki=w WM initially and even the blocking EB Shelton who blew a critical blitz pick-up in one of the early games but no one who complains about Henry mentions these other episodes if it is really blitz pick-up rather than raggin on Henry that motivates them. An imminently ignorable issue. One needs to factor in not only all of these and probably other issues to come up with a reasonable expression for him, but other factors will cause the market to vary widely in the hours before the draft and during the first round. 1. If two of the three top RBs go in the first five picks then conceivably the henry value gets elevated to even a #1. On the other hand if two of these players survive the first ten picks then Henry's value goes in the toilet. 2. The publicmarket for Henry is more hot than I expected with at least 3 teams on record wanting him (Iggles, AZ, TB) and Miami having a clear need for an RB but few draft choices to part with. The heavy market really increases his pre-draft value. TD has proven to be a cagey and proven negotiator. I think that the market is such that he might have even squezzed out a #1 for Henry, but my guess is that he pulls the trigger and gets at least the #2 he has targeted for Henry, but what may be happening here is that he really sees great value for him in the AZ deal (assuming the docs say Shelton is good to go) and he is looking to some unexpected blockbuster (like a trade with Miaimi for McMichael who also has one year to go on his contract and will be difficult for the Fins to resigin cap wise) and that is why he is sitting on the AZ deal til the last minute. My guess is that the TD estimate of a 2nd is pretty astute but getting a vet like a healthy Shelton or a McMichael has far more benefit for the Bills than the crapshoot of a mere draft choice (even a 2006 1st).

In my mind Reed was drafted to be the #3 WR for the year he was picked as I doubted that anyone seriously saw him supplanting either Moulds or Price on this team. He was definitely drafted with the idea of him being our #3. Further, with his 30+ catches and over 500 yards his first year he easily outstripped the rookie production other either Moulds or Price. If there was any debate after his rookie output it was wether he was going to be a good or great NFL WR. Even in his second year, no one saw Reed as a #1 WR for the Bills as you had to be on drugs if you somehow saw him beating out Moulds who hit the century mark with 100 catches for the 2002 season. TD clearly drafted Reed with the plan that this second round choice would step up into the #2 WR role because this became part of the grand plan to let Price walk which got the Bills they used on WM. Unfortunately Reed turned out after a very good rookie season to suck the next two years as a WR. I think it was a good article and TD reminded me that when one takes into account the injury to Moulds in 2003 that vaulted Reed into the #1 WR role and his claim that Reed suffered a mid-season injury last year that it actually is not impossible that in his 4th year he might recover the form that led to his rookie season. The comments do leave out a real fault in Reed's game that even before the Moulds injury, Reed developed a serious and pathetic case of the droppsies which seemed linked to a failing in confidence that the best pros do not have. Reed brought the problems on himself and though there are legitimate points that he is a different quality WR without Moulds to draw attention or when he is hurt, the starting point for his pro problems have been his own failings. However, 2005 does hold some promise for Reed because playing #3 behind Moulds and Evans puts him back into the situation he found as a rookie where both his fellow WRs demand a double-team (Moulds as the best athlete on the team and Evans due to speed) so Reed will once again get a shot to feast on #5 DBs and LBs as the slot receiver. It is quite reasonable to look for a productive year from him.