Fake-Fat Sunny

I think back-ups on the OL is a key thing. If we can build the chemistry of the starting unit, but then also have a player ready to step in when the usual nicks happen and you need someone for a game or two and he can step in without us missing a beat, then you are cooking! The problems I see is that I like Tucker as a solid back-up for the middle of the OL because he can fill in at both G positions and the C position if necessary as he did for Teague last year. I like Gandy in the Marcus Price role of being a fill-in at both tackle position. This is fine except that leaves us needing both a starting C and a starting LT and Teague looks like the best candidate in either place. This is why I was actually bummed that it seems to have turned out that the docs say Shelton's ankle makes him not the answer at LT (there is still a slight chance the Bills are merely laying low until Shelton is released by AZ as a cap casualty, but i don't think so). Shelton is not a great player, but his strengths of good upper body streangth but difficulty when he is left out on island fits well with the need for a roadgrader to block for WM and Losman's ability to avoid heavy hits for speed rushing DEs fit well with our needs but he does not appear physically ready to be worthwhile. I do not see any dead certain locks for solving this problem that will work, but one of several less likely options should work including: 1. We deal with the problem of losing chemistry building time for the OL to work together the next month and pick up Shelton for a song as a cap casualty in June and his presence at LT allows Teague to stay at C. 2. Teague moves to LT and Preston pulls a Dusty Ziegler and is ready to step in at C right away. 3. Peter's really is a phenomenal athlete ready to step in as LT with Gandy backing up both Ts, Tucker backing up the middle of the line, and development projects like Preston (and others like McFarland, Smith, whatever) filling in over time. As far as Smith, the two things which strike me as significant are that: 1. he made a tremendous jump from the Raven's PS last year to be our starting LG that I wasn't surprised to find out he had failings in the redzone and as a run blocker which made him need to be replaced. Merely, becoming a credible back-up would have been quite the accomplishment. It is interesting to me that the strength of his game which led to this big jump was at the more difficult (allegedly) task of pass blocking and athleticism and that he failed to be the roadgrader we wanted. This athleticism probably is why he is in the T position where he will face speed rushers on an island rather than doing the inside knife work of a G. Still we are a team that is going to call the run a lot and then for the next play call the run again. Smith needs to elevate his game on the run game if he wants to stick. 2. It speaks well for Anderson that he was a starter on the Ravens while Smith was only good enough to make their PS. Is Anderson a great player at LG? Probably not. Is Anderson a significant upgrade for the Bills in terms of LG play where a player on his squad but two notches below was our starting LG last year? Yes. Anderson is almost certainly a significant upgrade for the Bills. This really is a shell game, but we do have several options for improvement of the an OL that blocked for a winning team last year with a statue at QB. Things bode well but they have to be made to work.

You are correct to focus on Losman because th teammate factor is essential as someone has to deliver the ball. However the other major teammate factor to take into account is the impact of teaming up Parrish's slot skills with having Moulds and Evans with him in the three WR set. The opponent is almost certainly going to have to go to the nickel against this set which will give us a leg up because it will take opponents which are increasingly going to bigger TEs and emphasizing run stuffing out of their base D. The opponent wyll need to make a fasic decision about whether he wants to double Moulds (the best athlete on the Bills O still and capable of making all sorts of circus catches unless you convince the QB to look elsewhere by doubling him over and under, Once you do this, you better hope one of these cover guys isn't also your fastest DB becayuse your fastest DB is going to get Evans almost by default. Even worse if your fastest cover guy isn't a good cover guy to the extent he can be fooled more easily you probably are going to need to double Evans. It gets really tough if you have to double both these guys because now it means that you either have an LB cover Parrish in the slot and his 4.3 speed, or you go to the dime in 3 WR sets and have a DB cover him. Fine, but now you have not only your standard D pass rush weakend but your best tacklers are off the field and the Bills may well send McGahee around end and you have to ask a DB to fight through the stiff arm and take him down. It is exciting that Parrish is apparently a speed mutant, because Evans is also and Moulds is a mutant in terms of his physicality. Gosh forbid that Everett gets well and plays as advertsied because I'm not sure how you cover all these players and are prepared not only for a Mcgahee run or even Losman who is quite used to running for his life and converting busted pass plays into runs.

It's impossible to say for sure (though easy to have an opinion on) whehter Reed will be an '05 Bill or not. However, I think he will hang around this year and these are the reasons I think he is likely to be around: 1. He tends to look far more impressive in pre-season than he plays in the regular season and a few good exhibition games and being a workout guy who looks good in practice will likely keep him around. In both of his bad last two years he impressed folks in camp only to disappoint cause he got the droppsies year before last and he got hurt last year. 2. There is little savings from cutting him as his 2005 salary will only be $440K though his total cap hit will be over $800K. He will not draw a significantly larger paycheck than the NFL minimum payment to a rookie. The amortized pay of $400K he has already been paid will tend to keep him here if the choice is an even one in terms of prodcution because if cut the Reed money simply becomes deadspace that will not make for his selection over a much better player, but all things being equal looks worse on the balance sheet. 3. Reed clearly does not have the moxie and confidence to be a #2 WR, but his role will be that of a slot #3 and he already has demonstrated in his rookie year he can do that job. In fact, since the Moulds/Evans pairing look to be at least as imposing as the Moulds/Price pairing (Moulds is older but had a productive year last year and Evans seems Price equal in speed and productivity as a Bill) Reed will be able to feast on LBs and 4th or 5th DBs if both Moulds and Evans demand double teams. I think the Bills will keep 6 WRs as they have done before with Fast Freddt Smith occupying the return guy slot that Antonio Brown held with Smith actually being more versatile than Brown cause he can actually play some receiver. Parrish is also a return guy, but he is a rookie and Smith gives us room to let Clements focus totally on DB and possibly to feel comfortable with him walking if that is where FA takes him.

I dunno and have some doubts. I reviewed the tapes of JP's performances last year and I could swear he was only putting in 157.5%.

Onr number which I have seen quoted which is quite interesting to me is the % of plays that a particular unit played in 04 (offense or defense) that a player was on the field. I have seen the number 58% of the D plays in which Pat Williams lined up. I can't remember where I first saw this number (I do remember that is was a credible source -published and not just the usual internet blather like mine where someone can make something up and make it look credible) but assuming it is true it is instructive. Even though Williams would generally take a seat on 3rd down the number it isn't surprsing he would be replaced a lot, but as I doubt that over a third of our plays were third down (I don't think it is even mathematically possible) clearly the Bills lined somebody else up at tackle on a significant number of non third down plays. Kelly F&B also made a good point in one of his posts that MM makes unuusal and unorthodox moves with is players somewhat frequently having them line up in positions they do not occupy on the depth chart. He cited seeing Aiken lined up in two WR sets even though he was not the #2 WR on the depth chart because we seemed to be running a play where having his big body in to block was a good move. In addition, the run-blitz is all about having players play positions in non-traditional ways and Schobel with his athleticism may be in a short zone or Denny with his wide wingspan also fell back in pass coverage freeing Spikes or Fletcher to do a devastating blitz. I also noted a few plays where the DL was Kelsay, Schobel, a DT and Denny playing DT because while he is no blitzmeister he can play the run well in addition to his ability to do short and mid zone pass coverage. Likewise, if a player gets nicked, the best option for the Bills may be to play a better player off position to fill the gap, BB has really gained fame for doing this with NE, the thing which is notable about MM is that even without BB setting the tone, MM has endorsed and used D players like Bannan, Adams and Denney in offesive roles. Thus, I am quite interested in finding a % of plays stats. One can likely find it somewhere in NFL.com, but any directions to where this info is would be greatly appreciated.

My wife recently underwent sinus surgery (or roto-rooting as we called it) and all things seem to have worked out fine according to the surgeon after his post-operative exams. All surgery with general anesthesis is a serious thing, but I must admit in comparison to life-saving surgery she had when we were forced to address a childhood lung malady of hers in the late 90s by undergoing a double lung transplant (she celebrated her 7th Re-birthday earlier this year) I must admit it was hard to look at this serious surgery as more than a minor thing. Fortunately it has been routine so far. However, getting past the riskier parts, I began to seek relevance for this and of course found it in comparing the surgery to the Bills. After our 3-13 season and after the GW era (or should I say error) the Bills efforts were analagous to going through a transplant (and I do mean analagous because ultimately football is entertaining trivia and life is life). The Bills move were life-saving actions which if they failed meant life support at best or the equivalent of the team being dead, The stakes of making a mistake on individual decisions were incredibly high because everything had to work merely to get even a winning record. The good news about today's Bills is that it is analagous to my wife's sinus surgery. Its a serious deal and a lot of care, hard work and due diligence is needed (believe me even sinus surgery scheduled to be outpatient is serious, they knocked her out because they do not expect a human being to have someone up their nose cutting and scraping away with a small scalpel for 4 hours and you sit still the entire time) to make it work. However, the decisions and unanswered questions which confront the Bills as important as they may be are not a question of whether the team is on life support or no. Upon consideration of these questions, the returning assets and the new resources added or upgraded, I'm more convinced than ever that this team can make the playoffs. There are some real uncertainties, but the number of life-threatening decisions where the chances of possible success are small and/or a mistake means this team is dead are much fewer than last year at this time. Even better, like the early 90s teams where if Thomas went down you had Keeny Davis as a not bad plan B, today's Bills are actually putting good plan Bs in place or the tough decisions are about #2 RB, #3 WR and there are some reasonable options for these issues. I'm pumped and this my overview: QB- Far better than last year (++)- Last year we went into camp with Bledsoe coming off a horrendous season as our starter, the unknown rookie Losman as our hoped for back-up and Travis Brown as the other option. This year we have the only slightly more know Losman as our starter, but actually seem to have an almost perfect back-up for the Frank Reich role (not a likely starter, but some success in limited roles who can comfortably be counted on for 3 games and maybe more if we are forced). In fact, there may even be a little competition for the #3 job between Matthews who is another vet for mentoring JP, but ironically was the highest rated QB in the league last year in his brief mop-up role. Thompson has had surprisingly good success in Europe and is probably a good PS guy. RB- Same as last year (/)- Last year we came in with a 2 time in a row 1300 yd. rusher as out #1 but grave uncertainty about our #2 due to the WM injury. This year we have an even more hopeful talent at starter and similar uncertainty regarding the #2. This one easily gets moved up to one + since we now have a one game 100 yard rusher at #3 and we sign Thomas, judge Hearst to have something left, or even employ TH as #2 who really has no good options if the Bills cannot trade him than to suck it up and play hard as a #2 for WM in order to get a good contract as an FA (I actually think he will be traded though). The FB situation sees the at least adequate Shelton with another year and likely Neufeld as an H-back because TE is crowded (see below). OL- Marginally better than last year (+)- As much wie-is-meeing and panty wadding as folks have been doing about the OL situation it was worst at the minicamp point last year. The LG was gone and uncertain for 04, the RG situation was hopeful but had never played for us before, the C had engendered many complaints from Bills fans, the LT was stable but had never started 16 in a season and was going to be an FA at seasons end, and the RT was melting down over a death in the family. There are questions this year but, RG is set with a year of Villarial, the LG situation is analagous to last year's LG with Anderson being both not all we want but a clear upgrade over Smith, C Teague is coming off of his best performance as a Bill in the second half of last year and if you move him to LT Tucker filled in well for him last year and Preston actually will compete for the job, RT is set and MW may be ready to meet our #4 expectations, and LT is the lone blank, but Teague, Gandy and even Peters gives us some options with JMac in charge. Add to this that even with last year being a worse set-up, last year's OL eneded up being a key part to us getting 5 in a row and finishing 8 Ws in our last 10 games. If one wants to only give credit to the ST and D for this, remember someone blocked for WM. WR (++)- This looked like a potential problem area in terms of filling the gaps and now the question may be what do we do if we have an extra keeper in Fast Freddy Smith. Aiken has the physical tools and finished last year on a high note and is a reasonable possibility to deserve the #3 WR job. Parrish is viewed as the real deal to be the slot by some despite being a smurf, fine just take it or contribute on ST if you are not ready for #3. Finally, there are plenty of legit reasons to badmouth Josh Reed after he failed at being #2 and his injured season last year. However, as a rookie Reed showed he can do a good job as #3 if he has the equivalent of Moulds/Price and Moulds/Evans appears to be just that. TE (++)- While their is uncertainty here also, the uncertainty last year was after the OK but notgreat Campbell all things were uncertain. This year the injury issues create uncertainty (but reports both Euhus and Campbell are 100% are sweet) but the problem is that given it looks like 3 players (plus Everett) how do we deal with Neufeld and Trafford who both contributed to the 04 team and now look like cuts and Peters who will make this roster and probably will have to do so as T because TE is full. At any rate, I think when the smoke clears at RB we may be ++ across the board on O. DBs- (+)- age is the main reason I have this as only marginally rather than much better. If Milloy and Vincent are at safety (both missed significant time last year), I think they team with two players who made the Pro Bowl (though McGee made it as a KR guy but he is clearly gaining in CB play) to give the Bills potentially one of the most formidable secondaries in the league. Thomas and Greer give us two credible nickels and given that Vincent moved to S from being an INT productive corner, there are 5 guys I am comfortable with the single covering virtually any WR in the league. Baker needs to show me a second season before I believe in him, but though I expect this crew to miss some time with nicks, I feel we have the back-ups in place to not see this group driop at all in production even with two injuries. LBs (/)- Yhis group is at the same level as last year, but given the same level includes Pro Bowler Spikes and leading tackler Fletcher this i pretty good. Posey is little more than potential individually but as the LBs and D are productive in the real world as a group I can comfortably judge as strong across the board. Plan B is an issue because no back-up cn reasonably be expected to be Spikes or even rack up as many tackles as Fletcher. However, Stamer was productive as a reserve and potentially could show more. Crowell and Haggan have shown little as back-ups (they haven't had to) but have been very good on ST so the potential is not realized but is there as well. DL- (/)- I think this is as close as we get to a lifesaving question and uncertainty. On the one hand the loss of Phat Pat creates real issues for the stoutness of our run defense. However, the fact Phat Pat only was on the field for around 60% of the D plays (I know most of these were 3rd downs where Pat took a blow anyway, but does anyone really think (and in fact is it even mathematically possible) that over a third of our plays were third downs. Stepped up play by Edwards and possibilities but uncertainties surrounding Anderson make replacing him possible. Add use of the run blitz and I am comfortable that at worse we are in the same shape regarding DL. Overall, I'd say the D is the same, but the same is pretty darn good. PR- (+)- Hard to believe but we have choices to be made here between Smith and Clements who both got PR punt returns last year and Parrish who did well in this area in college. The ST which was incredibly productive last year seems back intact. KR- (/)- when coming back at the same level means staying at a Pro Bowl level like is good. P (/)- The only way this gets better is if Moorman is not rooked in Pro Bowl voting. K (/)- Kickers are a squirrely bunch and the main reason this could get better is that Lindell was great at kickoffs (no big returns thanks to great coverage and him kicking it to the right spot with the right height time after time and also due to a good job with onsides by Lindell) but simply inadequate at placekicking. He simply must improve his play and there is no objective reason to assume he will, but objectivity and kickers have little to do with each other. Overall, I'd say the ST is the same, but the same is pretty darn good. All in all, I'd say we're DEMOOoooooD

The great thing about all these decisions is that they will be hard (my language meaning they will take work but be fun and that it will be tough to go wrong choosing amongst many options) but not decisions where we have few options and a bad choice really hurts the team. TE- (assuming Everett recovers) we actually have three (Eve, Euhus, Campbell) an also three credible options were we to need them (Peters, Neufeld, Trafford). This one is hard because Peters will need to be kept somewhere and the other two involve cuts of 04 contributors. #2 RB- I think TH has few choices but to play hard if we decide to keep him. Williams is a good 3rd down back and if we sign Thomas (or Hearst has enough) they would be fine #2s. WR- Moulds and Evans are set and I think we will find a good slot guy from the 3 choices of Reed, Aiken and Parrish. Even the failed Reed has demonstrated he can produce at #3 as a rookie. The hard choice is whether we can keep Fast Freddy who contributed in 04 as a PR.

It certainly seemed with both Parrish and Everett the MM and the boys had specigic reasons for wanting them and specific plans for training and using them which seemed a bit different from the best athlete available mantra that all teams say. but the Bills have done a better job sticking to than most teams. I think some of the surprising Bills choices like Reed when they had Peerless and Moulds and McGahee when they had Henry are two of the "old" style Bills picks. I Ironically those picks ended up looking very far thinking as Reed'sprescence and first year production allowed them to let Price walk and Henry carrying the RB water most of the 03 season allowed them to comfortably let WM sit and heaPerhaps the MM needs and the use he can out an O player to make the Bills needs non-traditional.

Thanks for the info and correction actually. Getting accurate info and corrections is one of the things I value most about TSW. The question I actually have is that under the CBA, teams are allowed up to three mini-camps ONE of them being mandtory and two being voluntary (if you have a new coach TWO can be mandatory). The quesion which AP seems to have answered but did not expound upon is whether the Bills have designated this camp as mandatory or voluntary. Teams vary in whether they place the mandatory designation on the first camp after the draft or a later camp depending upon their HC's preferences. It can make a lot of sense to make the first camp mandatory as you get the boys back to work right away and get the rookies involved in the full team right away. On the other hand, sp,e HCs prefer to make the last camp before pre-season mandatory and schedule it close to the summer so players report in and hang around rather than fly in and out for pre-season. Last year, weven thouh MM had two mandatory camps he could use, I think his first camp was "voluntary" and that may have been the one Travis skipped. I certainly was unsure and thus not accurate about the Bills designation of which mincamp is mandatory (my wife will certainly tell you its not the first time for me to be wrong about something), but I'm interested in what MMs thinking is about his order of designating camps mandatory. AP probably got it right that he has designated this camp mandatory, but since they did not expound on the issue I hope they didn't make a false assumption (it probably would not be their first error either).

The Bills are entitled to the league (a big difference than compensation from the team that signed them( compensation for loss of Jennings and Williams. The compenssation will be given next year (I believe) in the form of draft picks in the 2006 draft. Compensation is certainly balanced against how the Bills do with signing FAs whose contracts had expired (I'm not sure about our signing of UFAs who were released and then signed by us). The decision is definitely made factoring into it what contract the market provided to the FA. Other issues are more of a black box like olayer and.or team performance and I suspect they are taken into account but are not hard and fast drivers on decisions. Folksare right that Henry only gives compensation for the Bills if he plays out this year of his contract as a Bill and leaves the team as an FA when the contract we signed him to (which was extended a year due to his poor fiscal management) lapses.

You're probably right about Wire though I think he could have been a better player and was horribly developed by GW/Gray/Jackson who were relying on their FA pick-up Jenkins to start and when he had nothing left they were forced to use Wire at a position he had never played at any level of organized ball. Its really too bad because all I hear indicates he is a good athlete with a Stanford brain, We should used him as primarily an ST guy from the gitgo. Baker really impressed last year. However, I need to see another year of production before declaring him the real deal (not that he needs my affiration).

I believe these mini-camps are "voluntary" meaning that everyone is expected to show up but players are not required to do so or subject to fine if they do not. Last year Mike Williams got "excused" absences from all the pre-season camps due to the death of the grandmother who raised him. However, he hurt himself and the team in terms of building chemistry and when he showed up for the mandatory pre-season workouts he was out of shape and caught hell for missing the mini-camps and the sponsored team workouts (which are voluntary by both rule and practice). Last year Henry also skipped the first minicamps and told the press that he could get as good or better workouts at home and poohed-poohed the need to build chemistry. A delegation of teammates got on the phone with him and got him to change his decision. In the worse case, it seems fairly likely that our #2 RB will be able to catch-up if he were to rejoin the Bills. If he is traded then actually best he is not around anyway. He is still saying he will never be a Bill again and TD is still saying we are happy to trade him for appropriate value but would love to have him back if no trade happens (meanwhile he is doing some serious browing for a #2 RB with Garrison Hearst coming into town and A-Train just leaving but saying all the right things. Henry's actiond sre sctually quite fine in helping us make a trade and will only make it hard if Henry decides to crawl across glass abd okay for the Bills, If he Bills do decide to keep Henry he has few reasonable options other than to suck it up and play hard for the team in order to secure a good FA contract.

I think even the folks who are paid to know this system can't tell you exactly how it works because this issue of compensatory picks for FA losses is embodied within the Comprehesive Bargaining Agreement between the NFL and NFLPA whose complete text can be found on the NFLPA website at > http://www.nflpa.org/media/main.asp?subPage=CBA+Complete < A look at this document and the extension of it reveal a few hundred pages of lawyer talk, charts and graphs and a plethora of side letters which clarify and modify this document on a detailed and ongoing basis. To make matters more unfathomable, the compensation is decided in a blacki box which cannot be seen by the public whose criteria for compensation change from time to time without announcement before their release each year. The key factors to consider for us lowly fans is: 1. There is NO compensation given for the loss or gain of an individual player, but instead compensation is determined on an evaluation of a team's entire loss and/or gain from FA in a given year. Thus if you lose Henry but other FA moves that year give you a gain from the total FA transactions judged by this group you will get NO compensation for the loss of this individual. 2. Compensation is being reduced over time. This compensation is not a formal restraint on trade because the team gaining an FA gives up nothing to get them. Thus there is not disincentive for a team to sign an FA such as the Bills signing Spikes, Fletcher, Posey, Adams etc and not having to give any compensation to the team which lost him. However, to the extent that the league compensates a team that had total FA losses this may make them less willing to bid to keep a player and thus restrains free market salary growth. The NFL insisted on some compensation as old contracts were signed by teams without the CBA or the coming of a freer market for the players as a thought. The NFLPA agreed to transitory compensation and the amount given out has dropped over the years to the highest compensation being a 3rd round pick. Overall, GMs seem to take the compensation factor into account, but it appears to be a much smaller factor in their assessment than the quality of player, his age, injury history, etc. that it does not seem to influence decisions one way or the other. The compensation has become so low and is in the form of an assigned draft pick (even 1st round choices are a crapshoot) that GMs are happy to get more tools but do not seem to alter their judgments based on compensation which is difficult to predict, fairly small in value and a year and change removed from the loss of the player anyway. As far as Travis goes, the Bills would only be compensated with a 2007 draft pick after it was assessed how the Bills did in total with the 2006 FA class. The determination would be made by a committee representing the NFL and NFLPA based on factors like what the market said a loss FA was worth based on the size of the new contract rewarded him. TD would have no control over: 1, The size of the new TH deal, 2. What the committee decides to do with that deal in terms of overall compensation to the Bills, 3. Selection and weighting of the factors which determine that compensation Etctera. If folks are assessing whether its best to trade TH or let him go as an FA, I wouldn't even bother because the actual compensation related to his loss would be pretty impossible to even estimate well.

As the season shapes up I feel things are coming into order, but clearly there is a lot of work to be done to get things in order. However, that is what pre-season is for and a big part of why the game is fun. There are some chores I view as difficult which means to me that it is not clear what we should do to get better or that the strategies being taken seem unlikely to work out. However, there are other chores which I view as hard to do, but not difficult to figure out as what it is going to take is simply a lot of hard work and let the chips fall where they may, if we work hard we'll do as well as we can do. The RB situation in 2003 (and seemingly continuing on) is very hard but not difficult at all. WM simply had to work hard and if all the things went the way the Bills docs said they would we would end up with a top 5 talent at RB. The other thing which made this situation not difficult at all was the fact we had a former Pro Bowl RB in place if the chips broke badly for WM's knee or he proved not be a hard worker. The current RB situation is not a difficult one for the Bills at all as they hold all the leverage with Hnery until 2006 at the earliest and are taking steps like interviewing Thomas and Hearst which move this situation from not being difficult to not even being hard once we get a credible RB back-up in place. The following is my position by position distillation of what I see as the status of each position: RB: Hard (moving toward Easy- Our #1 RB looks to be one of the best in the league and Williams gives us what appears to be a potent 3rd down RB. Management of the #2 RB situation may be hard to pull-off if this problem ends up getting solved by making peace with Henry, but we have most of the leverage and if we identify a #2 like a Thomas to sign and with Gates drafted this situation is in good shape. WR- Easy- The table is laid for recreation of the go-go WR scheme of 2002 with Moulds returning in his role after a productive season last year, Evans taking the speed WR role Peerless had and three candidates (Reed, Aiken, Gates) for the number 3 WR. The WR question is whether one of these 3 will be bad enough to cut or will we have to decide whether to keep Fast Fredy Smith as a 6th WR in the Antonio Brown return guy role. The coaches will need to chose a winner of the #3 battle rather than create this position in a player. QB- Hard- The uncertainty of whether a first year starter can handle this position which handles the ball every offensive play makes this one hard uncertain work. However, the acquisition of a #2 in Hiolcomb who has had some success stepping in and knows his role so their is no QB controversy to go with the hiccups Losman and all first year players have means though this situation will be hard it should not be difficult. The #3 QB decision is interesting as it is a sign that by resigning Matthews who seems to have more to offer as a mentor than as another potential producer at QB we are clearly committed to the JP era. TE- Easy- How did this position become an embarassment of riches so quickly after it seemed like a big question mark mere weeks ago (the answer is you hire a former TE as HC). If Euhus and Campbell are 100% after their injuries as reported, the drafting of Everett (who is reported by many to be an athlete who will push his way onto the filed very quickly) means that all three TE slots are locked in. This is to bad for Neufeld who recently resigned and has gone quickly from #1 on the depth chart to most likely getting cut unless he can win a job as an H-back. Add to this we are going to have to cut Trafford who stepped up to at least catch a JP pass last season and the Jason Peters who seems to be a T now actually stuck with this team because of his TE skills and their are two teams worth of TEs here. OL- Hard- If there weren't so many candidates for the 7 to 8 active jobs and 2 development players (16 at last count) then this would be clearly a difficult chore as the LT slot is unfilled for now. However, the presence of multiple candidates (including two who were starters -though meidocre for them- for other pro teams at LT) and the presence of JMac will make this a hard task to accomplish but not a difficult one to see how he will make this work. As confused as the OL situation is today at the beginning of mincamp, it was actually even more uncertain a year ago today as the LG had been cut, the RG was new to the team and the RT was in the midst of a professional meltdown. Questions reined among fans about the C and his ability and about the LT headed into FA. Todays situation is unsettled but: 1. MW revived his game last year and possibly could become even more at T for the Bills. 2. Villarial has a year under his belt and the RG situation is locked down. 3. Questions still remain about Teague but his post-injury performance last year is seen by many Bills partisans as his best work as a Bill. If Teague moves to LT, Tucker filled in nicely for Teague last year when called upon andthe drafting of Duke Preseton in a deep draft for centers hassome folks seeing him as an immediste starter. 4. Andersi=on seems to have the LG position and even if folks judge him to be the weak link in the Ravens crew last year, he clearly is an upgrade for the Bills over the uncertainty at LG at this time last year when Pucillo was the leading candidate and over the course of the season where we had a player from the Ravens PS starting at LG for us. 5. Candidates for this job include Teague, Gandy and even Jason Peters. Finding the OL crew will be hard work to do but not difficult for the resources we have in place to pull off. DE- Hard - I was somewhat tempted to put this one into the difficult category because I am most comfortable with 4 DEs and conceptually I only am confident in three (Schobel, Kelsay, Denney) but given we made only having three work last year and there are a few candidates of unkown quality (the listed DEs and any swing talents), I just think this will require the usual hard work to find a 4th and Gray;s nastery of therun blitz provides us with flexibility here anyway. DT- Hard- Again there is temptation to declare this a difficult task as well, given that two candidates to fill Phat Pats shoes are on the roster, Phat Pat actually only saw action on 58% of the D plays (folks can pretend this was simply because he came out on 3rd down but 42% of the Bills D plays last year were not 3rd downs) and things may still be in play to get some additional help here so I think this one will involve hard work to make it come out OK. but this is not a difficult situation in my book. LB- Hard- This would be easy if there was not such a dropoff from the starters to the back-ups. The starters need to stay healthy or someone needs to use ST to step up. CB- Easy- McGee was forced to step up last year but he did and I am comfortable with him as a developing starter though he had some adventures as a young position player last year. Clements is in a contract year that should heighten play and continue the development that earned him a Pro Boel berth. Thomas and greer are both solid nickel guys and worse cones to worse Vincent can switch back from safety. People can look for truble by harping on the 06 FA status of Clements but this is 2005 right here, right now. S- Hard- Vincent stepping in with Milloy makes this an older but savage duo. Former starter Wire is fine for me as a back-up but the other back-up will need to be filled from several canddates. Unless someone gets hurt, this should need only hard work to nail it down. ST Easy- - What will they do for an encore. It will be hard to replicate last year's results but all the ST studs are back and they are reinforced with new speedy guys. The punt game appears great behind Moorman and the coverage guys. The punt return duty has three credibl candidates foe action. The KR duty saw McGee get a Pro Bowl berth. The kickoff unit (including great work by Lindell) is back in full force. The outstanding ST question is the one about PK work is Lindell. From 45 yards and beyind he did not produce and MM showed no congidence in him. He shanked a couple of makeable kicks inside of 45. Statisitically he did improve last year but not enough to justify the faith placed in him. Lindell will need to do hard things to improve his game but the rest of the ST can do the "Easy" job of performing as before. Overall, I think all issues confronted can be solved and I look forward to this year.

This would be dumb as it is totally different from the situation of trying to reverse years of NFL teams refusing to hire the best players/coaches purely on their merit rather than allowing their decisions to be influenced by non-football issues like race or ethnicity. This approach is stupid because it attempts to meet some stupid PC goal, while the NFL's affirmative action policy regarding A-A hires is good policy as it seeks to reverse decades of non-merit hiring by the NFL. The NFL's affirmative action policy is also good business as it shows a level of commitment to fairness and opportunity to a racial group which makes up a majority of the players. In a perfect world it would be far better if NFL teams simply engaged in merit consideration and hiring today. However, last time I checked the world was not perfect and the NFL has correctly decided that in order to reverse pass wrongs and run their business well that they must adopt a sensible affirmative action policy on A-A hiring of HCs. A quota would be counterproductive, but the NFL affirmative actions seem quite good, allow for free choice in selection by the owners and are resulting in slowly the NFL seeming to make better merit hires of HCs.

Certainly the market did not play out the way TD intended prior to the draft, but like he said, he is not going to trade Henry unless the market gives him the value he thinks Henry is worth. The good news for TD and those panicing about this is that the market changes all the time and that is where injury for failure to perform comes in. If/when a team's starting RB in injured or fails to perform as expected, the market will change and that is the point where TD will assess again whether he is being offered what he considers reasonable for Henry. While I agree that Alexander and James are far better RBs than Henry and their teams want to move them, I think the big factor in this for a trade may well be that Henry has a $1.25 million cap hit when traded for, James cap hit was over $3 million last year and I think Alexander;s was in this neighborhood as well. If/when somone needs a starting RB, Henry is a likely cost-effective choice and may end up being the only choice a team has to acquire a former Pro Bowl RB if they cannot create more than a million and change in cap room. From the Bills perspective, the idea of bringing in Thomas and other formerly great back-up RBs is a good one. If we have to do a sudden trade of Henry I do not see Shaud Williams as my #2 RB. If no trade is needed or diable, I think that Henry has few options but to play and play hard for the Bills if he wants a big payday in the future. Moves that folks suggest like Henry merely showing up for 6 games to get his FA would so diminish his ability to get a big contract by giving him a second year in a row of non good play and also increase huis bad rep among players for letting his teammates down and not watching WM's back that it does not seem rational in the least.

The Bills don not make judgments based on race, but unfortunately as the Bills are part of the NFL which has a recent history of not having African-Americans play QB even though they can help a team win and currently their are far fewer A-A HCs than the number of good A-A candidates for HC jobs, this sad issue will always come up. One day the NFL will generally select people for jobs based for the most part on their talent, but the good ol' boy network is pretty entrenched and it seems like that though quotas are counterproductive it will take affirmative action on the NFL's part to make this situation. In my mind kudos to the NFL for rejecting quotas but strongly investing in affirmative actions like the black coaching internship and the requirement that all teams do at least one serious interview with an A-A candidate (and fining that idiot Matt Millen when he blatantly did not follow the NFL agreement).

No, this would not be fair as white cornerbacks have not been unfairly targeted based on race generally in the past and sometimes in the present.

If our strategy is to expect improved QB play to overcome the problems a D causes by letting a reserve crub RB rush for over 100 yards, to overcome a kicker that shanks a very makeable kick. the ST lauing a PR on the carpet and complete passes so the coaching staff can move away from the running game after WM gains 40 yards in a scoring drive because Bledsoe sucked and could not overcome these problems and JP will, this does not strike me as a good strategy. Though it was inaadequate to do what we needed, Bledsoe's production improved a lot in '04 over his horrendous '03 work. Hats off to MM and TC for squeezing far more than I expected out of a QB who should have been cut after his 03 work. However, I really do not expect much more production out of a 1st year QB (though it would be nice). The good thing is that if the Bills do it like they should we can win the playoffs last year with Bledsoe like numbers from JP. We should have made the playoffs last year with Drew if the D and ST had played like they were capable of doing when we won 6 straight. Do you or anyone disagree?

Salary is actually a reason for keeping Josh Reed. Reed has a salary of $450,000 and a cap hit of $850,000 as $400,000 is amortized bonus which will be paid to him if we get use out of him or count against us as deadspace if we cut him. Aiken has a salary of $380,000 and a cap hit of 471,000 as $91,000 is amortized bonus already paid to him which becomes deadspace if he is cut. Johnathan Smith gets the rookie minimum of $305,000 with no amortized bonuses. Quite frankly I think the Bills keep all three as we have kept 6 WRs before with one, Antonio Brown being a pure kick returner on the roster as a WR. To me, Moulds and Evans are the obvious 1 and 2 while Parrish makes the squad as a second round pick. Aiken and Reed will duel for #3 with Parrish getting a look see but probably losing out to the best performing vet. Reed has actually looked very good in camp the last two years but sucked his second regular season and lost the third regular season to injury. Though it is no gurantee that he will produce in regular season I suspect he will look good in training camp again. Aiken clearly has the physical tools to be the number 3 but has yet to produce consistently in his brief carreer. He would need an extraordinarily good effort and for him to step up his game a notch to beat out Reed unless Reed plays as badly in pre-season as he has in his second regular season or when he was hurt. However I suspect Aiken will show enough not to get cut. Smith is an interesting case, Parrish makes him expendable as the #6 WR. However, he did get a TD on a PR and made a couple of nice returns which will earn him a serious look. After the desert of the Antonio Brown return days the Bills are loaded at this position. However, I think the key to the Smith situation is probably the future. Clements is our #1 PR guy, but I think the Bills would love to only have him risk injury as a CB if they have a good answer at PR. Smith provides that and it is a reason for keeping him. Further, Clements may walk as an FA next year so developing Smith on PR is a good move. Parrish is the wildcard because his primary contribution to the Bills this year is probably as a retiurn guy rather than as a WR. If he shows early he can field without danger of a fumble the Smith may be a goner though the Bills will prefer to trade rather than release him. As far as the cap goes, there really is only a marginal savings for cutting Reed as he has already been paid the money which is his cap hit. The finances will not save his job i he sucks, but since most things salary wise are equal between these players in terms of salary, I doubt the Bills will want the 400K in wasted deadspace if the play quality is fairly equal. I think for now all three may be keepers.

Our kicker isn't even money from with in 45 yards. Where is his replacement? Anyone? K is much more than placekicking. Lindell certainly sucked shanking a very makable kick. However, though almost all kickers really earn their money with a potential game winning kick in the last minute, week-in and week-out they must kick-off and the kicks are critical to field position. Whether one likes his PK work or not (I would have been pleased to take Nugent with a later than 3rd pick if he lasted that long which he didn't) Nugent did an outstanding job with the KOs. Objective confirmation of this is seen in that their were no (zero, nada, zippo, none) returns for long yardage against the Bills. Tackling obviously deserves much of the credit for this, but one gets the proper tackling when the kicker puts it exactly the distance and direction called for in the kick and this is particularly difficult in the winds of the Ralph. Flat-out Lindell was outstanding as a kickoff guy. In addition to that, the kicker is occaisionally called upon for an onside kick. The Bills recovered 1 of his 3 onside attempts this year and since Lindell not only kicked it well (it must travel the requisite 10 yards before anyone can even touch a defender and he recovered the kick himself his work was outstanding. On one of the miscues, Lindell actually did his job well as Rashad Baker actually missed a chance for him to recover the kick. As far as PK goes, the shank was so bad it would not have been outrageous to replace Lindell based solely on that IF you had a credible replacement (Nugent is plenty long on PK, but his ability to KO has yet to be proven). However, the Bills did not and there actually is some reasonable hope that the PK work would improve. 1, Statistically Lindell was a far more accurate kicker in '04 than in '03. 2. Strangely in 2 years the Bills have not seen the game rest on the toe of their kicker in the final moment so Lindell cannot be credibly indicted on that front. 3. The main queastion regarding kicks of 45+ is that MM seemed to have no confidence in trying this much, however, it must be recognized that the Bills win streak and few games ending closely made for few attempts of 45+ by Lindell. In fact, twice he did put the ball through the uprights from 45+ but Bills TD took these pounts off the board. Kicking is a real question but their are a series of more real responses than kneejerk complaining. I am a huge Canes fan, and I love what Willis has done in college and the Pros. I hope he continues to do it for years to come. Yet, with a straight face, can anyone here say they don't cringe everytime you see him on the bottom of a pile? The game where WM went out with an injury and a question arose of whether he would be back in 2 weeks or more only to see him return to action and rush for over 100 yards the next week was instructional. It ain't over until its over and any player can be injured at any time. However, it was helpful to my psyche (and probably WMs) to have him seemingly hurt so bad but have him come back and play the next week. I think the reasonable course is to worry but not to fret. We got nothing for Henry. Even if he does come back, how many people here believe he isn't going to be a cancer in the locker room. I believe all parties involved are in a lose-lose situation. It ain't over 'til its over regarding Henry as well. As teams make hard decisions come June 1st regarding cap cuts, there will be another chance to trade Henry for player value and as RBs get injured in pre-season the chance to trade him for a mere draft choice will be there as well (unless folks panic and cut him). I see Henry having no leverage in this case as if he were to become a cancer and fail to watch WNs back he will develop a rep as a bad teammate which will sour other players on him joining their team. The only way it goes badly for the Bills is if Travis is so stupid he wants to add cancer to uncertaiinties about his health. Paticularly as we entertain other plan Bs for WM like Thomas the Bills are still in the driver's seat on this one. J.P Losman has me SOOOOOOOO worried that I can barely contain myself when I see the foolish post 10-6. Did anyone see the way he played last year? I know, mop up duty the whole 9 yards, but didn't you guys see how nervous he was? Didn't you see the way he seemed uncomfortable in the pocket? He can hand off and that's all well and good, but there comes a time a qb has to do more than just not lose a game. JP actually showed demonstrable improvement over: NE- looked like and was a deer in the headlights as MM sent the message that boy when you put on the uniform you must be prepared to play. 2nd game- another round of mop-up duty in which JP showed his lack of control by taking a delay of game penalty first time he came in. However, this outing proved to be successful for JP as a series of hand-offs to WM produced a TD. 3rd game- JP continued him improvement to not exercising total control yet, but did call the TO to avoid the penalty. He once again led the team to a score. and this time converted a 3rd down with his feet (he shoukd have bailed out rather than take a hit for 2 meaningless yards) and hit Trafford with a key pass. The big thing for JP development is that MM is lowering the bar for JP performance by expecting him not to pull an Elway to win, but instead expecting him to make 1st year starter errors snf instead emphasize the run. Predictions of 10 wins are unreasonable if you expect JP to perform like Joe Montana. However, epectations of 10 wins are not unreasonable if you demand he perform like Tren Dilfer or like RoboQB did last year for Pitts. No replacement for J.Jennings is going to smack us right in the face. I don't need to explain to the community where the strongest pass rush comes from. Ask Taylor or Abraham what the thought of Jonas. I know the Bills have filled some gaps, but not the one at LT. I actually miss Marcus Price more than I miss Jennings. JJ was good, but not wort the huge SF outlay for a player who never started every game in a season in his career and actually prefaced this by getting knocked out of at least a couple of games last year. The big ruah does come from the left side and that is why we will be rushing left a lot this year. I think Shelton sounds more like the road grater we need at LT for this O and Teague is stronger working in space, but we'll see. No replacement for Big Pat is big trouble. Who is going to fill that revolving door interior line position? Ron Edwards is okay, Sam Adams is aging and everyone else is secondtier. Our only saving grace may be a good linebacker core. This may be a dire situation and we need Anderson to step up bigtime. However, this situation is not as dire as Phat Pat was ofte out on many defsive plays. Our starters do not have to come out of nowhere they will need to expand the role they played as replacements for Phat Pat on 30+% of the D plats last year. Worst of all is a bad draft and little money. Roscoe may be great, and I'm sure Everett will be solid at TE but we had way bigger fish to fry. An OT or DT would have been ideal but instead we took a 5'8 WR. As I mentioned earlier, I am a big 'Canes fan so I'll be the first to tell you the kid is explosive, but he just didn't hit our needs. The draft even in good years has little to offer a team the year of the draft (ex. Evans took half a season to get on track) and it was going to be even worse with this draft before it began as we traded our 1st for JP and this draft was a weak crew overall. I would call any expectations that this draft was going to help us in '05 the worst before I labeled this outcome as problematic. You are mostly right, there are many questions, but also there are many answers.

The main benefit I saw from WM in blitz pick-up was his running. LBs abd DBs seemed to fear WM might go wide or take the hand-off on a delay to such an extent that it reduced the blitzing. In addition, TC established that he was willing to commit Bledsoe to the QB draw for positive though not TD yardage and also liberal use of the flea-flicker pitch back which made defenders wait before commiting to the blitz. WM seemed to have problems with blitz pick-up like any rookie from what I saw early on. Henry had issues (such as when he went the wrong way late in the NE game) but this was not an issue talked about much at all in his 2nd and 3rd seasons and seems to be a rant that came out when folks were looking for any way possible to badmouth a runner with consecutive 1300+ yard seasons. Are there any particular games you are refering to that featured outstanding blit pick-up work by WM?

It makes sense to me that various posters accuse previous posts of not making any sense because I think everyone chooses their point to assess or blame Bledsoe where it is convenient to their view of the world. Just to clarify, this is my sense of the Bledsoe performance and what it made sense (to me) for the Bills to do based on that performance. 2002- Bledsoe performs well both on the field (if you think that someone else deserved the Pro Bowl reserve nod then please name them) and off. In the first year, this trade of a future 1st rounder for Bledsoe is a great move. Bledsoe not only achieves on the field (the record which is the ultimate measure moves from 3-13 to 8-8 and Bledsoe even with his getting used and abused by the Pats is a big part of this, he sets multiple Bills QB records and gets the validation of a Pro Bowl reserve nod) and off of it (his presence hear restores excitement and credibility which was sorely lacking during the RJ era and the QB debate. Particularly since the Pats followed an SB win by missing the playoffs in strong part to the cap strain created by the accelerated Bledsoe hit, the Pats were the one raped in 2002 by this trade even though they made by far the right choice in sticking with Brady. 2003- Drew simply sucks with the O failing to score even a TD during mid-season crunch time as Kevin Killdrive refused to vary his approach and BB had provided a roadmap in how to take advantage of Bledsoe. As Bledsoe could have been cut after this season with no cap acceleration for the Bills HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN CUT RIGHT THEN. The downside to cutting him was that the Bills had spent the 2003 1st round choice on him, but the Bills had already been restored to the 1st round by some great work by TD raping Arthur Blank and they had turned that pick into WM. If the Bills had walked away from Bledsoe at this point, they would have had to find a replacement starter, bt given the Bledsoe cap room they had room to shop. 2004- TD erred in extending (renegotiating) the Bledsoe deal but my hats off to MM and TC because they got far better performance out of Bledsoe in 2004 than his horrendous 2003 season. Nevertheless, even an improved Bledsoe was still an inadequate performer in the end, as he simply is not a good enough player to overcome the D giving up over 100 yards to a Pitt scrub, a sudden OT outage tipified by a Lindell shank of a makeable FG and Clements laying the ball on the carpet. Overall, my sense is the trade was great for our football team but TD did not cut an run from Bledsoe when he should have. The cut of Bledsoe this year was a grim acknowledgment by TD that Bledsoe is great as a #2 QB, but not ready for primetime as a starter.

The only theory I've hesrd thst supposedly justifies this as a good move for the Bills is that it sends a message we only want players who want to be here. Since such a move would be exactly what Henry wants and would reward him with free agency for his stupid actions, I do not see how this move benefits the Bills at all.

I think that the two Ts cut Bledsoe as much because the felt JP was ready to learn and blossom as much as the did so because of Bledsoe's failings. It strikes me as a mistake to assert he was cut purely because of his failings and not to recognize that having an alternative matters. TD made the mistake if extending Bledsoe's deal in part because the Bills saw no better alternative for the 2004 season than Bledsoe. Once JP demonstrated to them that he was a reasonable alternative, the would have been happy to keep Bledsoe at a #2 QB salary. However, he chose to be cut instead. It would be a mistake in my view to say they totally gave up on Bledsoe as a player, though they did give up on him as a starter. Bledsoe does have a problem of needing to be worked with constantly (from Parcells reminding him to just throw the damn ball to the MM alarm clock, but I think the success he had spreading the catches between Moulds/Price/Reed/Centers in 2002 shows he did not go into his trademark pat all the time. Even last year when both Moulds and Evans were both productive Bledsoe did lock on too much but it would br incorrect to claim he did this all the time. MM did suceed in getting him to divvy up the passing attempts to the tune of the team eventually producing a winning record.