Fake-Fat Sunny

Its been fun for counting downs the days until the start of pre-season camp even in these dog days of summer which are really the football calm before the party (football is really too trivial to call it a storm). At any rate, I have been thinking about what is it that the Bills have to do (besides get lucky which is the key to any championship really happening) to win it all. Some folks get focused on a particular player which is exactly whatthe NFL wants because start power and celebrity sell tickets so they encourage folks to focus on one or so players as though any one player (be it Elway, Kelly or Brady) us the reason a team wins (the individual is not, the TEAM is). However, in my ramblings I think a good way to think about this is to divide things up into the 3 tams, D, ST and O. This is my sense of the 3 major challenges and I will also bow to the NFL and give my sense of a critical player to watch (watch not because he is responsible for it working or not but because how he performs will determine how much his teammates have to do to build on or make-up for his play. D- I think that D wins and losses games unlike ever before in the NFL and from the 85 Bears to the 02 Ravens these teams have shown that a great D can carry a middlin to not-so-good O. The najor challenge for the Bills will be to build on a performance which saw this squad finish 2nd in the league statistically after finishing in the top 5 the year before. This team needs to at least keep up that level of performance and actually will only be great if it is ruly the #1 D in the league and becomes a force. I actually doubt this will happen nut it can with the team returning 10 of 11 starters. The really good news is that for the missing guy, Phat Pat (a good player but getting up there in age), they have reasonable plan B (Edwards) and a plan C (Anderson) to replace him but all of this will be on a plan A that the run blitz scheme is the reason why Phat Pat was the DT on less than 60% of the D snaps last year and will provide a base from which we should not miss a beat regardless of wteps up betweem Edwards and Anderson. It also bodes well that our game against the pass was quite strong last year despite the fact that our secondary was hit with major injuries leading to significant lost PT for Vincent and Milloy. Both these players are back and recovered to be productive at the end of last season so I think the prospects are good unless we get some really bad injury breaks. If one or more players improves to have a year like the improvement Bryce Paup had in his best year for the Bills, this D could be outstanding and there are several players of the proper age, dempgaphics. room to imporve and/or contract status to be that player. Watch: DL- The Bills would improve with a solid pass rusher and Kelsay has shown the talent that there may be more there in his 3rd year. LB- Posey gets a lot of grief because he is not as good as Spikes or Fletcher. However, he is a player entering his prime who had a very good year for Texas that attracted our attention and despite our whining as fans has never been a victim of big plays and he has just done his job though he has not repeated his Texas 3-4 performance. This may be the year that Posey steps it up to his old performance and if so watch out. DB- Clements is in his contract year and has the potential to go over the top to be the shut down big play corner we desire. Jerry Gray and his coordination of this bumch of talented players is going to be a key. ST- Last year was really quite phenomenal and amazingly for us it was the return unit where <cGee. Clements and even Fast Freddy Smith were all threats to put up 6 on any kick which led the way. Add to that the coverage unit not giving up any TDs or even long returns, the occaisional extraordinary effort like the block and TD of Jason Peters and the phenomenal punting of Moorman (its hard to imagine him not deserving the Pro Bowl) and the bad news for me is that it is unreasonable to expect the same production. Yet, along with this, the PK game and Lindell can clearly do better because the place-kincking game was not a threat at all (Lindell did a couple of nice onside kicks). Add to that the addition of Roscoe Parrish and the resume of Rashard Lee and there is even more return talent on this team. I do not expect our production to get better (it would seem that merely through dumb luck we will have a long return against us or not chalk up as many KO TDs). However, there is a chance that this #1 ST may be even better this year. Watch: We seemed to have cast our lot with Ryan Lindell. He has not had the production we wanted, but all he needs to do is be adequate and produce at the level he already has accomplished in Seattle and if the ST does not take a step back (and it does have a faie chance at being better) this could be the key to our season and many Ws). O- The O finished statistically among the worst in the NFL and the good news is that it will be near impossible for it to do worse. The key to doing better to me is to take it easy and try to be more like the SB Ravens than the SB Pats. JP will not make as good a choices as the vet Brady does now so why demand that he do that. This team needs to run on first down (only varying it so opopnents do not sit on the run) and then virtually regardless of the success of that first run run again on 2nd down. I don't care if JP turns out to be a winner of games because I think the key to us winning is for him no to make mistakes and lose games. Watch: WM will be obviously key but it is Tom Clements putting out players into the best position for them to make plays that strikes me as the key. One certainly needs to noe JMac and the OL due to the uncertainty there as a key to watch. Gandy's development will mean a lot because though Teague is a reasonable plan B for him, if we go to Teague the chain reaction so impacts the OL it simply will be waiting an praying as a fan that sets the course. Perhaps, this is the way MM wanted it, but Gray, April and TCs are the Bills who need to most do their jobs to get us a shot at the playoffs and thus at a ring even though it is incredibly unlikely to end up that way. The journey to whatever happens will be interesting.

In addition to the post just above citing the case where he flat out beat Ogden, one of the best LTs in the league that even better he is one of the statistical leaders on a team whose D was in the top 5 statistically in terms of D 2 years running including a #2 ranking last year. it would seem contradictory to not think this stat is relevant because you don;t like his results in another stat. The fact is that stats are an indicator and not conclusive in terms of measuring a player or a team (besides W/L). However, Schobel is a much improved player over his first couple of years where he took some bad tackle angles and he easily in my view deserved his huge but pretty moderate by NFL standards contract to deliver his significantly better than moderate play at DE. He is not a great player (yet we Bills fans hope) but does not command a great player cap hit and the D he was a significant part of last year was successful. The D needs to get better (witness the power outage against the Steelers) but with 10 of 11 starters back, the missing guy Phat Pat having Plans A, B. and C to replace him (Edwards, then Anderson, and use of the run-blitz scheme to cover up DT failings), and with last year acconplishments being done despite significant loss injury time to Vincent and Milloy the prospects are good for this year.

In addition to being a good player against the run (he was even used as a DT sometimes which explains part of why Phat Pat got relatively few snaps last year for a starter) I think that actually Denney's primary benefit to the Bills is that he was built for the zone-blitz. The idea he is not much else but a run stopper ignores the fact that he has actually show some athleticism which has even allowed Krumrie/Gray to employ him in the medium pass coverage zone (he does not have the speed to stick with a backer or TE who goes deep. but can do pass coverage into the LB area (an example is his INT last pre-season which occured downfield) and has a huge wingspan which makes him a great cover guy in the short zone merely by raising his arms on a tall body. As far as the rotation, I think the Bills scheme is not to identify one player and to go with im til he drops but to try to elevate all the players to the same level and same ability so that thye can shuffle the players in and out virtually on every play and they can cut loose totally because they know they do not have to pace themselves. I think the Krumrie sees it as a mark of achievement that folks judge Kelsay and Denney to be the same type of player (and at the same level) rather than it is a problem as you say (imply). I also am not sure what point you are making when you say the rotation does not allow for the development of the player you want to go with. Who specifically is that player? Uyi Osunde? George Gause? Perhaps you know something about them most of us do not know but all DEs on the roster (Ritzman) are going to have to fight their way on and are likely camp fodder so I am not sure who you want to exoperiment with and release this player whom TD has refered to as a virtual starter for the Bills and was one of only 3 DEs on the active roster most of last year. Folks do continue to rag on Denney because he was downright awful and not ready to play NFL ball his first year (the technical reason is that apparently he did not bend his big body correctly and even a cursory look at the film revealed to an opponent how to use his bad leverage against him and take him out of a play easily. However, though he is not the sack master we want and are used to because all Bills DEs are compared to Bruce Smith by fans and found wanting I think the Denny experiment is actually done and was deemed a success by Krunrie/Gray last year.

I think he will be a Bill post camp because: 1. Even in his disappointing seasons the Josh Reed MO has been that he is a workout warrior who looks good in camo though he disappoints in regular season. I think he will likely look impressive in pre-season though he may well disappoint in regular season. 2. Reed has shown that there is a big difference between how you practice and how you perform, in addition to having a few key plays in pre-season games as mentioned above, he will likely look good from Friday to Saturday though this well may not translate to Sunday. 3. His contract is such that we have already paid him 400K + of his near million dollar salary, the braintrust will be reluctant to cut him as they have already spent above the rookie minimum for him and a cut would subsidize aniother team. 4. We likely will have the space for him despite the huge number of WRs in camp. I think we can keep up to 6 WRs with one space allocated to a WR who really is a KO guy. The 6 are definites Moulds/Evans/Parrish and likelies Reed/Aiken and Smith. Things can hapen like someone else (Brown perhaps) steps up and impresses and forces his way onto the roster as a scrub WR did a few years ago (Clarence something or other). However, even this possibility forces a choice between Reed and Aiken and Aiken is ahead of Reed last year based on performance since an injury riddled Reed did nothing last year, but Aiken did not take the position by the throat either. In my mimd, the key to this is going to be ST performance for a player who I think is likely to be #4 on the depth chart if Parrish plays as advertised. Reed's mental lapses appear to be in regular season game performance where he has gotten the droppsies before. Mentally he stays in his lane and will pump iron in the locker room and with his cap hit whether you cut him or not that should keep him here.

I do not expect you to reply to the details (and actually I doubt you really can because the facts are the facts and do coincide or line up with your premise that i responding to that events changed with WM walked on the field replacing TH. 1. Events did not change coinciding with WM taking the field as he had significant PT in both the Jax loss and the Jets loss in the 0-4 start and also significant PT in the Ravens loss though it was the 6th game and TH started before being essentially replaced by WM before halftime because WM in 2004 was a far superior back to TH. 2. Further, even if you want to scale back your premise to claim that the difference was that WM started, WM was great and I totally agree with starting him over TH, but what is rediculous is to claim that the winning streak was essentially caused by this switch also does correspond to reality. Just as folks should not disregard the difference in Bills results in games started by TH last year (a true fact and relevant to the extent WM is a far better RB than TH) but essentially it is no the reason to explain or understand our 8-2 record after the Ravebs game unless one choses to disregard a bunch of things which actually drove out winning record (little things like the D and ST play) or even the improved O performance (improved blocking under JMac and improved play by the skill players including Bledsoe). I know folks like to make the strongest argument they can in our little fake world of the internet, but do you actually think we should disregard a bunch of other key factors to the Bills wins and attribute it all to the switch from TH to WM. It does amaze ou can accuse people of ignoring the fact of the Bills record with TH starting and then turn right around and ignore a whole bunch of other things that really determined the events of last season. I for one definitely feel the Bills should trade TH and get as much as we can for trading him. You have taken a stance against this by arging we should simply cut him and argued he has no value. I think this move would serve Travis's interests because he would love to be cut but would not serve the Bills interests at all. You have also argued that Travus Gump (as you call him) has no value and argued this shown by 31 NFL teams not trading for him. i think the main reason there has been no trade is that TD insited on getting a 2nd for him as his initial negotaiting stance and is now holding out for a 3rd. Perhaps you are tight and the 5 MFL teams which expressed interest in trading for TH when TD cleverly got his agent to do the work for TD were just shing TD on. An actual trade wll prove you were wrong but it has not happened (yet). However, my guess is just wait. Perhaps TH is just shining TD on with the offer of a conditional 3rd, perhaps the Jags are also just fooling. I do not think so, and I am glad that TD is not taking your advice. I for one think it is a good idea trade Henry for value that helps the Bills. I think he is a former Pro Bowl back who can be used to be part of a potent offense. However, I think we cam easily afford to trade this former Pro Bowler because we have a better starter in WM, a good enough 3rd down back in Shaud Williams and have some promise in Rashard Lee as a back-up and even some future potential in Gates. Value for me would have been an LT rather than a draft pick but I'm glad they did not trade TH for Shelton as was offered for this player who you would cut because apparently Shelton is damaged goods. If in fact they do trade him for the 3rd we seem to be headed toward right now, I would have prefered getting a player who could help us this year, but it will be kudos to TD for standing his ground and getting a 1st day choice in a stronger draft for TH.

My sense is that the base of this arrangement is the partnership between the owners and the players with both having a primary goal as these two groups (owners and the players) of making as much mney as they can. This primary goal of the two groups is made up of a bunch of individuals who have primary individual motives to win the ring and also to make as much money for them snd their familirs as they can (the prinority of these goals varies from individual to individual and from time to time, but these basically are the drives for this business of sport). However, since individual teams are competing with each other for the championship the basic shared goal is to maximize the $ they make competing. Now as far as this goes the NFL operated unitl the late 80s within a framework where actually the owners had most of the power and kept most of the money made by the sport for themselves and for the most part dictated the rules under which the players competed. The key to alot of this was that actually football did not operate by free market rules and the good old American way. In general the in the free market supply and demand rules and people are free offer services to anyone and anyone can buy those service for a mutually agreed price. The NFL (and most other major sports) had developed in a manner where the owners actually colluded with each other to restrain trade and the free market of any individual offering his services to the highest bidder. The competing teams in the NFL had developed a system where they did compete on the field but actually colluded with each other to not compete in a free- market way in terms of the business (it actually is hard for me to imagine how one even operates a sport in a true free market but that is another discussion). However, by the 80s we saw some major changes prompted by society and events in the NFL. In one of the other big sports Major League Baseball, even though it has under the law an exemption from anti-trust laws which makes the owner collusion legal in a way that the NFL does not, individuals asserted another key to the American way which is the individual freedom to sell their services to anyone unless they agree to the limitations. When the legally stronger MLB lost the restrictions of the Reserve Clause which bound a player to a team that chose him in the restraint of trade draft for life, it was a victory for individual rights and the end of sports as we knew them. In addition to the changes in baseball which put the NFL in danger of owners having to actually operate in a free market, the NFL suceeded in outlasting the USFL and through this victory made it clear that the owners were truly one business rather than competitors despite the on field competition. The next event was that the players pushed to be given a majority of the gross receipts under the leadership of Ed Garvey. The players were beaten badly in this economic fight with the owners and the union was crushed in the replacement player move of the owners. Interestingly enough it was these two total victories which sealed the fate of the NFL as we knew it. Ironically, the restraint of trade that the owners were pleased to put in place because unlike MLB the colleges subsidized development and training of it's prouct with college football. The NFL does not have to pay the millions (if not billions) it would take to manage a minor league system the way theMLB does because the colleges (many of them paid for with government money). However, a side effect of this massive subsidy to the NFL and the restraint of trade of the draft is that the leadership of the players is by definition a college educated crew. Mpst athletes are actually undereducated folks who really majored in football in college. However, the player leadership consists of well-educated smart guys and under the leadership of Gene Upshaw and other players they countered beng beaten totally by the replacement player tactic by joining with a bunch of bright lawyers and simply threatening to decertify the union. Without the agreement of the players to the restraint of trade of the draft unless the NFL made a deal with the players they would have had to actually compete against each other financially for player services. The good news for the owners financially however, is that though they were in fact much richer than the players and loved beating the crap out of them, they grudgingly but quickly had to admit that their were forces in society (like the TV networks that had far more money than they had. In fact with the burgeoning economy under President Clinton in the 90s they could be shown that they actually could make far more money than they ever had if they could gurantee the delivery of a product through labor peace and development of a partnership with the players. The result was that the NFL and NFLPA concluded an agreement in the mid-90s where the players actually won a % of the DESIGNATED gross of around 70% which far outstripped the Garvey demand of 52%. This designated gross was actually far more limited than the total gross of the Garvey deal as major income streams such as luxury boxes were not designated. However, with labor peace and an ensured delivery of a product until a new Collectuive Bargaining Agreement needed to be produced, the networks paid so muh $ for the product taht both the owners and players made more money from football than ever imagined. The bottom line as far as this thread is that the key to this is that the key to business decisions here, the NFL and NFLPA has nothing to do with you, me, cities like Buffalo, the region. etc. We are a real key to the business because we are the cash source, but we have no direct control and no influence in any planned way over decision governing the product. Hold-outs will not end unless it somehow endangers the BFL and NFLPA making money. For now, hold-outs are actually part of the system of contracts. Individuals can try to deny their services, even abridging a contract, if they are willing to take the penalties for doing this of not being paid. The players will not agree to a more draconian penalty for abridging a contract unless there is something financially in it for them I do not see the NFL doing much to pay the NFL in joining them to rein in this behavior. The NFL would have to pay the union alot to agree to this deal and even if they did they would actually begin to flirt with individual restraint of trade issues that it would not benefit the NFL to have dealt with. Remember, the USFL won their lawsuit against the NFL that they were colluding and restraining competition. However, trebling of the damages they received for winning this lawsuit resulted in them winning $3. In addition, the NFL destroyed the NFLPA in their labor battle and as a result the Art Rooney's and Halas family who had run pro football on their own for decades had to take on the players (abd all them African-Americans like Gene Upshaw) on as essentially their partners. I'm sure that the the NFL could win a lawsuit against a player for violating his contract but like the USFL and the replacement player episode they would likely lose as a result of this win.

Wrong. You are correct that JMac should not be considered a miracle worker (he has said this himself from even before he was hired). He is very good and is such an upgrade over Vinky and Ruel it isn't even funny, but he should not be expected to and will not perform miracles on this team unless the O scheme is good (it is behind TC/MM), we have the skill players (we do with Moulds/Evans/WM), and the other players are at least adequate (I think they can be). However, no one should expect a human to be super-human. However, while you fault folks for disregarding the true fact that our W/L turned around with WM starting compared to that with TH starting, you also disregard other impacts that I think had a real impact on improved performance by the Bills. I do not disagree that having WM start was a huge upgrade over having TH start (though the notion that this upgrade was in better blitz pick-up by WM rather than the real upgrade being that he provided a far better outside threat with his greater speed and extraordinary stiff-arm is a bit bizarre to me). However how can you also disregard: 1. The role of the Bills learning and employing a much better O scheme which really took hold in conjunction with winning streak rather than with WM getting the start or a lot of PT last year. 2. Bledsoe establishing himself as a threat which stopped LBs and DB from commiting totally to the blitz with the success of our flea flickers where WM pitched it back and Bledsoe even ran some positive draws and sneaks. 3. JMacs teaching and reconfiguration of the blocking which not only saw the revitalization of MW, extraordinary use of the jorneyman Smith, eventual upgrade to Tucker at LG (not to mention surviving the hiccup of losing Teague in the midst of the streak) and even employing Bannan and Adams to improve redzone production. 4. Other switches and tweaks and non-O factors which were minor compared to massive shifts or off point explaining O implementation but in total added up to significantly better O performance (for example, the D and ST performance do not explain better O performance but the D and ST performance had a huge impact as opponents were playing with the Bills in the lead and the O had better field position. The mistake in your arguments (and I am not calling you out simply judging your arguments) is that they overclaim by saying that the Bills O and production turnaround coincided exactly to WM being on the field when it did not. Even if the turnaround had coincided with the potential coincidence of WM starting or getting PT it is still more legitimately explained by these other factors above which you flat out say does not have a part in leading to the turnaround. even beyond this fact, if you look at the turnaround with events for the Bills they do not line-up exactly with WM waliking onto the field to start or get significant PT in the way you imply or claim. For example, it took a couple of games with WM starting for the Bills to make a total turnaround. We were 0-4 with TH starting, but it is not like we immediately went on a winning streak when WM walked on the field as you say. We did We won the Miami game with WM starting to go 1-4 but WM struggled a bit in the first half but played a great game to wear down Miami (this was actually how Travis got his 1300+ yards the two previous seasons so I wouldn't claim a night and day difference between the two). Game 6 against the Ravens actually did see TH start, but WM was clearly the man and if you want to give sole responsibility to the RB for the events of this game (as silly as giving sole credit/blame to any player in an NFL game is) then you have to lay this one on WM (unless you want to claim that the issue here is not whether WM walked on the field but whether he started the game). The streak finally began in game 7 and WM played a key role with a couple of long runs and his scoring two timely TDs from short yardage (the first by a Bills RB in quite a while). However, he actually just squeezed over the century mark with 102 yards and this game was clearly a team win with the ST and D playing a huge role with WM not even on the field rather this win being totally the switch from TH to WM as starter. The events do line up smoothly at all with your too broad claim that it changed completely when WM started. Your claim that events changed merely with him walking on the field diverges even more from the events. WM actually saw some significant time when we were amassing an 0-4 record that cannot be attributed to WM for blame at all (or TH for that matter because we lost these games due to critical D failures and the ST not producing like it did later in the season, and other O idiocy in addition or besides TH). However, WM clearly walked on the field and saw significant time during the 0-4 start which was great because it gave legitimate confidence that he really was back (an event which did not occur for me until the SF game when he played when we thought he may be out with a hyperextended knee in the previous game) but not because he performed anything like more than a hopeful first year player the first few times he walked on the field. Speciifcally the facts of WM walking on the field were; Game 1- Surprisingly to many he saw significant time in his first pro game as was the RB for the fourth quarter as Henry sat with a nick. Henry had an OK but not great game as the O did enough to win if the D played adequately in the critcal final drive but they did not and we lost. The claim of a night and day difference as soom as WM walked on the field is stupid to expect and does not fit reality to claim as Th and WM both produced about 3-1/2 yards a carry in the 3 quarters where Henry was he one who walked on the field and the 1 quarter where WM was the one who walked on the field. Game 2- WM walked on th field very little in this game (his loss of 10 yards on 1 of his 2 runs probably had something to do with this). Perhaps one wants to blame the coaches for going with TH rather than WM though ironically it was actually FB Shelton who missed the critical blitz pick-up in this game) henry certainly did not do the job againsr a tough Oak run D so blaming him for not performing seems legit to me. He did get the ball in for a TD on a bad call by the refs that even the NFL admitted was a mistake but the best RB does not even leave any doubt and allow the refs to make a bad call. TH was far from being a good back for the Bills as his reaction to feeling the team gave up on him was to give up on the team. This is not good and we should trade him due to this though it is a leap to also claim that his bad reaction to the Bills makes him untradeable by us. As seen by recent events he clearly does appear to have value in trade and I am glad that TD did not cut him as some (mostly firends of TH as this was just what he wanted) advocated doing months ago. Game 3- WM once again did not walk onto the field though this happened in part because TH gaomed 98 yards in 24 carries and had what Bills Daily called his best performance of the year. Still this "best" performance showed why he was not up to an adequate performance for the Bills as he failed at the critical times when he fell down and went boom in front of a hole on a 3rd and 1 and he ran to a different side than the play called for and Bledsoe fumbled when hit on this blown play. One would not be taking account of reality if one ignores the positives of the Henry performance this day OR one ignores that he did not do the job in crunch time. Game 4- This was a good game for WM but once again shows that it is an overclaim to say he made a difference in events and game result which occured when he walked on the field. Even a good game by WM did not make the difference as the D failed to hold the Jets down with adequate play in crunch time. It is simply contradictory and inconsistent to accuse WM of not playing well enough to make the difference in the Jets game wjn it was the D failure to stop the jts from getting a game-winning FG after he made critical rushes on the drive for the points which gave the Bills the lead, but to also not recognize this was true in the Jax game where Henry got yards on the drives to give the Bills the lead which the D failed to hold on the last drive. Neither RB is the prime blame for either loss. Likewise WM clearly took the field in this game and it did not change the result so it is hard to see how one logically gives his prescense and play credit for chamgimg the events positively in this game when the results were not positive (even if one wants to break this down and claim that they did not make the switch soon enough as shown by us getting shut out early and then WM playing a critical role in the drive leading to out first TD, it was actually a 7 yard un by TH which was the key run leading to the second Billls TD). The bottomline is: 1. The Bills actually did not begin to change events as soon as WM walked on the field or even as soon as he started (events were bad against Jax, NYJ and Balt where he saw some significant PT) 2. One might try to claim that him starting was the difference in getting better results, but as our success seemed to be actually independent of whether he did well (he only had 25 yards in the game he was hurt where we won going away) so WM's play and prescence were great but does not even conincide with our production last year and even when it was great was clearly not the root of all posibitive achievements. 3. As far as WM's great work, it seems pretty unsupported by the facts to claim that his great contribution over Henry was blitz pick-up and to disregard even WMs greater contributions as an outside running force or to disregard the numerous other factors like scheme and improved Bledsoe performance which are more removed from WM as the reasons behind event occurence. it seems little more than wishful thinking to attribute all things positive to WM being around.

Pretty exactly. The good news for us regarding this is that though the Edwards improvement in his game last year was as a pass rusher rather than the PW forte of run defense, it is great for us that Edwards did this while actually putting on about 20 pounds. Increasing his strength and weight are things he needs and needed to do to fill in for Phat Par and to have done this while retaining (and actually improving) his sack ability is a great sign. Anderson is an unknown, but we need a plan B if Edwards goes down or does not work out and Anderson is a great plan B. He actually might be a plan C because part of Phat Pat losing snaps at DT last year actually appeared to occur because none other than DE Denney was stalwart enough against the run that on some third downs the Bills actually went with all three DEs (Kelsay, Schobel and Denney) on the field at the same time (this mix was part of Sam Adams throwing a fit for being benched when it was Edwards in the line-up instead of him with a good dose of DEs) and this rotation is actually something we use with the zone-blitz to confuse the offense a lot. The loss of PW is regrettable because he is a good player but appears to be something we are well situated to deal with.

The only redo of MW's contract will be a restructuring which pushes bases alary into bonus so it can be prorated over the life of his contract to lower his cap hit. I think the Bills did not make a mistake in the 2002 draft where they picked MW that virtually any team in the Bills position would have made in this draft. 1, The argument which seems to be made more frequently and carries more weight is that rather than passing on taking an LT with their #4 that year, that the Bills have actually not done enough drafting of OL players. 2. Given that they really needed to get an OL player who would immediately start for this team on the OL, the Bills really had a choice between taking MW or McKinnie. I think they made the right choice here even with the MW meltdown prior to last season. 3. Did the Bills make a mistake in the amount they paid MW? NO. The contract amount was basically determined by the slot he was taken in the draft. Thoough there is variation in the deal and that of other draftees it is not in the amound he is paid but in the distribution of this amount over the years of the contract pm base versus bonus. 4. Did TD make a mistake in the distribution he agreed to? YES, Howerver, this mistake appears minor in terms of its immediate effects on our cap and may even turn out to be a mistake if MW keeps developing like he was from the start of last season through the end. TD's mistake appears not to be the complaint many are making in this thread that MW is overpaid (yes he is, but then all NFL players are overpaid since they are getting a bunch of money to play a game and if instead you ask is he being overpaid for a player drafted where he was the answer is no since he is slotted at that amount. One can judge him based on whether he has produced as a #4 the answer I think is yes iniitally, no his second year as he was asked to really carry Pacillo when he still needed to be taught and Ruel did not do this well in addition. His third year was a mixed bag as he melted down in off-season but shaped up nicely under the prodding and teaching of JMac. There is some legit hope based on his improvement last year and also his off-season commitment shown in his weight and comments (though biased) by the Bills braintrust. The mistake appears to be that based on nis cap hit he certainly is being paid based on what the market is giving to LTs rather than a lesser amount the market is giving to RTs. TD either planned for him to make the jump in sides or to do what he did and find an LT he felt could play at well below the LT market rate. We will see how this plan B works out this season. The other factor that should be noted in your argument is that though MW is overpaid based on his output (his current cap hit as researched by Clumpy puts him at a level which would have been a top 5 OL cap hit last year the number you quote for his cap hit is not consistent with the best information available on his restructured deal. His cap hit is not the old $9 million number you quote but appears to be lowered to $7.8 nillion. This number is still enormous but it is a real reduction which currently gives the Bills a couple of million below the cap to use if someone suddenly becomes available, Overall, if there is any desperation regarding our LT situation it appears to be from the poster rather than from the Bills and not from me. If the Bills had signed Shelton when they believed he is not good enough, this would be desperate. However, I think the LT situation is more or a concern or perhaps a worry but is not desperate right now because there are credible plan As, B and maybe even a plan C. Maybe one plan will not work and the second plan will create management tremors on the line to be dealt with, but there seems to be little desperation at this point beyond fans who have their panties in a wad.

I think the point of disagreement is that while I like Dusty Ziegler as a player having him be your starter at C and Glenn Parker be your starter at LT meant that when JMac took this crew to the SB they seemed closer to being the football equivalent of the French Army than being an SB group. Likewise JMac took over an OL crew last year for the Bills which had all the makings of being a turnstile and trained and turned these moderate at best to poor performing players and turned them into a squad which cut the sacks of Bledsoe in half and did some great run blocking for WM. JMac has demonstrated the ability with last year's Bills, NYG's SB team and throughout his career of getting production out of so-so talents, If the OL is the football equivalent of the French Army you want Patton in charge rather than (take your picks of whomever you want to name) rather than have some general in charge who loses battles with good or bad armies. If you are saying you've give up hope on any reasonable performance being squeezed out of the Bills OL players then say so and the rest of us fan will root for them to do well.

I think it is just like Pete Rozelle wanted that it depends upon how this odd shaped ball bounces (and unlike Rozelle's desires whether the refs blow the toin coss in our favor or against us). I'm rooting for an 11-5 outcome looking at the list but not bothering to predict until game week (if then) because who gets hurt or injured for us and for our opponent that week will tell the tail. Overall, I think the determining factors will be: 1. I suspect our D is the real deal with 10 of 11 starters returning snd PW (who was replaced on well over half the snaps last year will be replaced without seeing a lessening in results. 2. The ST had an outstanding year last year that it would be foolhardy to predict for sure it will be just as good. Yet, the vagaries of life thought they give a reasonable chance it will be worse, there is also a slight chance it will be better with good bounces and Lindell playing even adequately at key points. 3. I think the O will be a bit better with the players relying on themselves as a team and not expecting the QB to lead the way as the young Losman will not be able to do until he is older and Bledsoe was not able to do as a player. If the O does not rely om JP to do more than simply not make mistakes I think that it will be pretty good behind WM. I think TC and MM understand this and TC will get it done. My prediction which I garuntee will be wrong is that we finish 11-5 and make the playoffs.

I think the Bills thought and hoped that MW would earn the LT slot by 2005 when Jennings either cut the mustard and gave the Bills two options at LT or did not (he was at least adequate with the potenyial to be a solid LT but he would not have been worth even the standard LT cap hit not to mention the extraordinary amount he raked in from SF) and they moved MW to LT after JJ left. I think the hefty contract which gave MW his huge cap hit can only be dealt with if you are not paying another tackle a huge salary. As the market certainly calls for a significant cap hit for the LT position, it certainly seems likely the Bills had this in mind for MW. However, before folks get all upset about how in the heck we can survive paying an RT an LT salary. The obvious answer is that one can do this if you have a relatively cheap LT to balance for MW remaining in the RT position. As it stands, the Bills had or have several options which are credible for domg this if the think they can make it work with that players. A. Shelton was a credible thought as out LT at an affordable level but apparently JMac and the braintrust did not feel that his play his play with his ankle injury would be good enough. B. Gandy is also a credible thought as he has manned the position before and JMac sees something in his game he believes he can turn into a winner at LT. I doubt it but it is certainly possible and I understand the concept. C. Verba is still on the market and their are likely other candidates out there who would need to be revived or raised up with coaching. Gamdy seems more likely than these choices and I have my doubts about him. D. Peters has still been consistenly talked about as a phenomenal athlete but I really doubt that he is in a position we should entrust JPs blindside to him but I guess it is possible. E. I think Teague can play the LT role if need be because I think he was adequate though not good enough to pay the big bucks to for Denver, and I think that after 3 years of C work with the Bills he actually is a better player today and should be able to at least be credible at LT if needed. Tucker's play at C last year means there is a back-op option for Teague though new health issues have been raised for him and also the drafting of Preston and descriptions of him also make him a credible option to try if necessary. Overall, the LT situation is not where I want it to be. However, since I'm not in charge and do not have to make this work all I can to is wait, watch and judge as a fan. My judgement is that if you told me that Glenn Parker is your starting LT and Dusty Ziegler is your starting C in 2002 (or whatever year it was) and that they were going to lead an OL to the SB, I would have asked you what you were smoking. However, under JMac's guidance and tutelage they did. I think the Bills have (and had but passed on them because they had better options) a number of ways to make this work at LT in terms of production and also fitting their salary cap. I do not see how JMac is going to make it work with Gandy, but given his track record of success (a couple of SB berths and good blocking with Cincy, great work and an SB berth with NYG and great improvement over the not-rerady-for -primetime work of Vinky and Ruel) I think we can and should give him some latitude to make this work even with pedestrian talent. As far as paying MW too much for an RT, I could not care less IF JMac and YC make it work because we have paid for the replaceable adequate work of Jennings and will pay for Gandy a small amount which in conjunction with the good but not overwhelming amounts taken down by Villarial, Anderson and Teague seems pretty doable in terms of the OL budget. I do not think the MW contract is untoward as it was simply the slotted budget amound for a #4 pick and we are compensating for it finacially by JMac judging he can make this work with Gandy taking a balancing lower cap amount. He does have to make this work, but he has led OLs good enough to make the SB before with limited talent players so it is certainly more than possible for him to do it again. It has seemed the case that the MW cap hit has not stopped the Bills from resigning anyone they wanted to get as both parties were quite willing to restructure if necessary. MW also may well become the LT we want next year though his meltdown last year delayed his progress for a year. However, we see, to be dealing with that problem and have a couple of back-up plans in place in Gabdy cannot cut the mustard.

In addition to the info linked above getting one to the BillsDaily front office page, the other great contract resource for the Bills is a collection of Billszone.com done by ClumpingPlatelets at > http://www.billszone.com/mtlog/archives/20...ry_cap_page.php <. In addition, real salary cap info can be be found at NFLPA.com which is the unions's web page. As the NFL and NFLPA base a lot of their growing partnership on the exchange and publication of salary info (trust but verify) this is the most accurate salary info available (top 10 cap hots for each position and individual player payment levels can be found here). There are limitations on this info and exact contract language and future cap hits cannot be found for specific language regarding some roster bonuses as this money has not been paid yet and thus is not part of the cap. For example, the cut of Ruben Brown by the Bills snuck up just about everyon except the two parties (Bills/Brown) who signed the contract as the date for the roster payment forced the Bills to decide in the off-season whether to cut Brown or not. This was this was the similar to the case for Mike Williams as roster bonuses escalated his cap hit to extraordinary levels though his cap hit is fairly easily manipulated by both parties by stretching out the deal and giving him a bit more money in his pocket up front and allocating the hit over the remaining contract. I think the three resources of Clumpy, BillsDaily and NFLPA.com tell anyone much that they need to know about the Bills and the cap hit which does alot to determine their W/L in a given season.

One should not disregard the Bills record with TH stsrting since this would be just as foolish as disregarding: 1. That this is a team game and it is not a good football judgment to attribute any specific series of wins or losses to one player's replacement with another player. 2. That the sack improvement record of the Bills certainly was helped a lot by a better outside running threat which WM provided that Henry did not, however the better Bills sack performance strikes me as being influenced at least and actually much more caused by: A. Better blocking teaching by JMac particularly getting a better performance out of Williams who got off to a slow start at best as he lost weight put on in pre-season, Villarial improved in his play as he got more and more time in the Bills system, the Bills made a major shift over the course of the season at RG first moving to Bannan and Adams in the redzone and shifting to Ross Tucker starting. B. Establishment of a tendency toward flea-flickers which casued LBs and DBs to wait and watch before commitng to the blitz and even being willing to run the slow-footed Bledsoe on the QB draw which forced the D to not commit solely to the rush. C. Getting on a roll with the ST and D which provided not only better field position but bif leagues which forced the opposing D to be far more conservative in their play. The notion that the reactive defending against mistakes action of better n;iyz pick-up is more important to sack total than any of these three factors (or even anywhere near the greater contribution of WM to the blitz numbers of providing an outside running threat makes little football sense to me. 3. that TH's performance in the first four games last year for the Bills and his trade value to a team which thinks he can perform better for them because both he and the Bills appeared to give up on each other when it became clear last year that the team was going to use WM as soon as the could as their feature back. I agree TH sucked for the Bills last year, but this is not the same as whether some team will trade a lot for him. 4. it is particularly foolish to disregard TH's well-rspected by many in the league 2002 and 2003 performances where he rushed for over 1300 yards because he went into a pout and put up inadequate numbers in the first four games last year. It would be silly to disregard his career as it would be silly to disregard last year. 5, the fact that trade value is determined not simply by one's assessment of a player but also by how that assessment compares to what you have and what you will have to give to get him. Both the Jags and the Titans have players who have been (Taylor) or might be (Brown) more productive players than Henry, but both have had a clear history of injuries far more serious to their games than Henry. In addition, Henry is a former Pro Bowler under contract next year cheaply and even the RBs who might be pried from their current teams (Alexander and James) will be far more expensive next year. Definitely Henry's 04 should not be disregarded, but which of the above 5 points are your disregarding by claiming he has no trade value?

I disagree in that he clearly progressed from the NE game where some folks evoked the deer in the headlights language (he was bad but not that panicked in my view). to his next game where he tool am unecessary delay of game penalty, to his next game where he took an unecessary TO but did show some learning in what would have been a bigger mistake to take a bad penalty. he also showed in that third game that he does not flinch in that he lowered the boom instead of taking a dive when a tackler hit him (I'm glad that he has learned the lesson to take a bad TO instead of a bad penalty without losing his toughness, but he still needs to take a dive when there is little to be gained from being a "real man" on a play. I think as exhibited both in his brief onfield play and in his comments (and the comments of coaches) about his study habits that whule JP clearly has a lot to learn he has learned a lot as well.

My lovely wife was also a Vandross fan. She stumbled upon one retrospective show about his career last night on TV and was wondering if any of the other stations like VH-1 or MTV will be doing something. I anyone has any links to schedules of Vandross retrospectives or schedules of them I would love to know. Thanks for any help or info.

I aggree and I refer to this as chemistry. JP does and should have confidence in his athletic ability. I hope that JP is gaining the knowledge of the playbook and developing his ability to translate the plays and orders of TC cleanly and succinctly to the other players. Rookies often need to develop this ability and have control of the game and JP showed this with the lack of control demonstrated when he had to fall back on his athleticism when thrown into the Pats game. When he got delay of game at th beginning of his next appearance though everyone had tons of time to prepare for this call. He further demonstrated it when he blew his translation job in his next game and was forced to call a TO. However, as lame as the result of this performance was, he did improve each game from a horrendous response againt the Pat, to merely a poor response from JP in his second game, to an inconvenient but inconsequential response in his third game. JP was inadequate in all three games but actually there was improvement and this is a good sign. However, this third type of confidence and performance which I call chemistry is something that will be determined and take a lead from how good a player and QB JP is, but the result will also depend and be determined by how good the Bills O braintrust is and how good the other players on the TEAM are. One of the unfortunate things many Bills posters on TSW seem to conclude is that it is all up to JP whether he is good enough or not in terms of how this team and O perform. This is wrong. JP can be truly as talented as he wants to be, but if the braintrust does not put our players into the best position for them to make plays, into a position where their opponents are forced to watch and react rather than have a pretty good idea what we are going to do (Kevin Killdrive's problem as he refused to vary his scheme and habits), and the TEAM does not build a chemistry and knowledge of each other that they cannot predict what their teammate will do in a certain situation, we simply will not perform as well. I think JP will struggle early not necessarily because he does not have the athletic talent to do extraordinary things (he does), and not because he does not understand the Bills playbook and approach (he should as he has lots of time and has been diligent in his studies by all reports), but because their is little replacement for time and the experience of playing and practicing together to develop the chemistry of the TEAM and of th O. We are simply going to need a lot of good bounces and dumb luck in the first few games until the O becomes a TEAM that make its own luck. The god news for us is that from our opponents, home dates and the way the season is set up, I think we are facing opponents who are beatable early even with us learning how to play well together.

Since it appears that JP has recovered from that imjury without dimishment of his physical ability (based on his play in four games which saw him run for a first and make some nice passes and the braintrust having no fear of throwing him to the lions against the Pats) or his mental desire (based on him stupidly in my view lowering his shoulder and hitting a tackler for a meaningless couple of yards after he had already run for the 1st down) I think there is a fair chance he and we will look back on the injury as the best thing that ever could have happened to his development. He was not gonna play anyway last season even if he was healthy once the Bills went on their winning streak. Because he was injured JP got a phenomenal chance to sit in the booth and to simply worry about absorbing nuggets from Sam Wyche. The definite negative about the injury for me was that he was not able to practice and improve some mechanical issues with Wyche, but brain issues rather than athleticism has always been the area where JP needed work and he was probably lucky to have the fans off his and MMs back last year due to the injury and the Bills winning when he came back. I think we saw a host of rookie mistakes from him in his brief appearances and the good news is that he improved on most of them in his brief play. I think his playing would have made zero diffrence in our W/L last year and because i think we will likely win to the extent we do not depend on great or good play from him this year I doubt playing a couple of games last year would make a huge difference in his W/L rhis year.

Yeah and if he has a great 3/4 of a season but blows his knee out the tricky part for TD is judging how long they stick with him in rehab before giving up on him and keeping his annual salary.. or if he has a lousy season the tricky call is do they juge he can make his way back... or if he is sometimes good and sometimes not as good... or if he slips in the shower on a bar of soap and hits his head and is reduced to Travis Henry like intelligence... or blah blah blah There is a ton of reality to happen before anyone can usefully worry about what to do.

Thank you for bringing this thread back to reality. I can understand how someone might make a grand leap to fearing a WM holdout based his agent using the tactic with other players and based on WM doing drive-by appearances in the "voluntary" camps. However, fearing a WM holdout this year makes zero sense and even fearing it next year is getting so far ahead of the game that it while it would be silly for a GM not to have contingencies for a lot of situations it would be even sillier to worry about this possibility at this point. Whether WM runs as successfully as he did in the second half of last season and whether he gets hurt or not (which even under normal circumstances no one can predict accurately) makes such a huge difference in how one views the WM case that worrying about it or taking any action beyond his current contract would simply be silly. Even as far as "voluntary" camp goes. WM was clearly at a UM alum effort which sounds like such a torture chamber that if anyone is worried about him not showing up the worry is that he is working too hard rather than slacking off. The holdout thing is non-issue for now and until we see how this season plays out.

I think the answer to this question is that the good news is he has already leaned a lot from his rookie QB miscues but the challenge is that he will still likely have young QB miscues and the trick will be to minimize the importance of the mistakes as he learns the game. I think last year saw a number of rookie QB errors from JP. Namely: 1. In his first real play as a pro he looked like a fish out of water throwing an INT and getting hit an fumbling in mop-up duty against NE. 2. In his next appearance he came in late in the game to mop-up in a win and failed to control the huddle and manage the clock and the team took a delay of game penalty when he is key real job was keep the clock moving. 3. In his thrid game he again mopped up and his job was to run the clock but he was forced to take a TO because of his failure to call the play effectovely 4. No huge errors in his 4th appearance. However, the good news in all of this is that his progress was apparent and the miscues were probably based in his gettting his feet wet. 1. MM taught the rookie a great lesson in that if a player has on the uniform he needs to be ready to play and perform. He was not ready to play as he assumed that Mathews would get the call. He learned the lesson that being a good athlete is great but simply will not cut it to be productive in the NFL as a player needs to mentally have control over the game. I'm just happy he didn't hurt his body again because the mental lesson was the one he needed to learn and MM force fed it to him bigtime. 2. Again a clear rookie error as even though he was all set to come in this time after SEA failed with their onside kick, he failed to quickly and efficiently translate the play to the team. He did show that the NE bruising had not destroyed him as he completed a nice pass to Euhus and handed the ball off to Burns to run out the clock. 3. Again he showed a rookie's lack of mastery by failing to translate the play on his first call. but showed some progress as time he avoided the penalty by calling a TO. This was not good as his job was not to TO but to burn clock but it was at least better than taking a penalty. As it happened, it was a good thing he did not take the penalty as the mop-up started so early in the game the team needed 1st downs to burn clock. Losman pulled this off by not only connecting on a nice pass, but by making a run for a 1st down on 3rd down. The kamikaze hit he put on a tackler was fun to see but was a rookie mistake as he already had the 1st and should have avoided the hit because staying healthy is more important for him than a couple of meaningless yards. Overall, i was pretty pleased with the learning he showed last year. In addition to the more objective signs like TDs and completed passes, JP also looks like he learned from watching Bledsoe that it is useful for a QB to run out each and every play even if he does not have the ball. Bledsoe deserved the grief he got last year and getting cut because he did not produce like he should have in the W/L category. Nevertheless, Bledsoe did show some great ability to run fakes and to run out plays which from my view really helped sell the flea-flickers he ran for TDs when WM would pitch the ball back to him and when he pitched the ball back to WM for a TD scamper after a fake QB sneak. Over the season one could see how Losman also began to run out each and every play after he handed off the ball as though he still had it or positioned himself as though it might come back. Sweet. Still from his kamikaze hit in the SF game to the fact he is simply young he still has a lot to learn and master in this game. To the extent the Bills play ST well and reduce pressure on him to win games, to the extent the D sucks it up an makes up for any mistakes he or the offense makes and also delivers the ball to him with good field position I think we will do well. To the extent we force JP to lead us to scores in order for us to win we will lose our fair share of games while he learns the trade. Run the ball to start (throwing in th occaisional JP pass or the flea-flicker to keep the D from simply waiting on WM to run) and then run the ball again even if we only pick up a couple of yards and a cloud of astrturf on the first run and we will be fine.

Again... if you read the post it is not simply a comparison of Delhomme vs. McNabb (one obviously chooses McNabb if you are simply comparing talent) but a theory as to how QB investments overall work out. There are multiple 1st round QBs who have had some success in the NFL FOR THE TEAM WHICH DRAFTED THEM as in addition to McNabb players like Culpepper and Vick got their teams to the conference championship. However, the conventional wisdom (as demonstrated by the theory in the orginal post) is that one needs to invest in a marquee QB in order to get to and win the SB. This has simply been untrue in recent history as for the most part teams which draft a QB in the 1st round (Indy with Manning, Philly with McNabb for example to site the most successful ones) generally sre only one of the four final teams. I consistently (too consistently for many tastes) argue that one does not need to invest heavily in a marquee QB (you have to pay heavy for success as seen in the Brady case, but I would not call the NE investment in him heavy until his most recent deal this past off-season since they invested lightly and easily managably in him both as a rookie and in his second contract). If one believed the conventional QB wisdom then the method of winning the SB would be to draft a Manning, a Culpepper, a Leftwich or a Vick in the first and watch the SB trophies mount up. However, alll of these stud QBs share something in common that they have never even seen an SB game. The Delhomme example (example rather than rule) is important because he represents a QB strategy which has succeeded in getting your team to the SB multiple times and FAR more frequently than draft ing a QB in the first round in that if you get a player like 6th round draft pick Brady, cap casualty Dilfer or Wal-Mart box boy Warner and pay them near or at the NFL minimum so you can build a TEAM within you salary cap limits this is how teams have won the SB. I'm pretty sure that like most NFL youngsters JP will go through a learning phase this year. I think we can easily survive this is we can rely upon the rest of the team. However, the big challenge for the Bills led by JP is whether he can become the1st QB drafted since Dallas chose Aikman to lead the team which drafted him to an SB win. I'm not slamming 1st round QBs, i just think that a team is far better off finding thi talent and managing his contract from the reject piles of other teams (Dilfer for example or Brett Favre or Steve Young) or because he forces a trade from the team which drafted him (Elway for example) than picking him yourself. Whether you pick a Leaf who sucks or a Manning whose contract is a rate-limiting factor on Indy you end up with the same amount of SB wins and appearances) or even playoff wins until year before last).

I agree generally with what you said in that I am pretty sure that initially JP will have his struggles. However, i do not take the leap to the conclusion you do that it will add up to the team being a lot like last year's team and finishing with nearly the same record. I think the key to the Bills winning is not going to be how fast JP picks up things, but how well the team is run to minimize the impacts of a JP learning curve. Pittsburgh strikes me as the model where their results last year (and the course they followed to get there) were determined much more by them running behind the Bus and playing well on D initially so they did not rely on RoboQB to do more than manage the game and not make mistakes because they did not rely on him to win games. Once they did rely on this rookie they lost but my sense is that team succeeded by not asking more of the younster than he could produce. The JP situation is different (and this is good news for us) in that JP already ha struggled mightily last year when he was thrown into the Pats game and he showed the learning curve when he took a delay of game penalty in his next game and then he was forced to take a TO rather than take a penalty the next time he came in. The really good news for the Bills is that despite these hiccups, there is a straight line of improved JP learning from the Pitts debacle, to him recovering from the penalty to hand off to WM to get a TD , and to him recovering from bring forced to take a TO when his main job was to run clock to also drive the team to a TD (included a nice pass to Trafford and a nice run to get 1sts). I have little problem with Woodson' comments because if the NFL Access booker had set up an interview with JP rather than Robinson in this time slot, then my guess is that Woodson would have picked JP to throw 2 or 3 TDs against Robinson in the first game. Woodson is paid the big bucks to do good interviews and not necessarily to make good predictions. My guess is that the primary motivator for Woodson's choices were to produce a good interview right then rather than lay out some thouroughly researched view of next season.

I have not heard or seen any theats from WM to hold out at all. As best as I can tell some folks looking for something to B word about in these dog days may be ranting about this because WM has Rosenhaus as his agent, If anyone has links to some actual threats from WM, I'd love to see them (its certainly possible as I do not see everything and my wife will tell you for sure i don;t know much at all, but the concerns some folks seem to have of this alleged holdout seem little more than folks getting their panties into a wad over something way down the pike if it happens at all.